Risk Of Job Loss Research Articles

The China Shock, Employment Protection, and European Jobs

The authors investigate the effects of Chinese import competition on transitions into and out of employment using comparable worker-level data for 14 European countries. Results indicate that, on average, Chinese imports are associated with an increased probability that employed workers become unemployed and with a reduction in worker flows from unemployment to employment. In countries with high levels of employment protection, incumbent workers are shielded against the risk of job loss due to Chinese competition, but unemployed workers’ prospects seem to be particularly negatively affected in these countries. The authors also provide evidence that the effects of increased Chinese imports differ by worker groups and the tasks performed on the job.

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SUPPLY INDUSTRY

This article discusses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on income and employment in the agricultural and food supply industries. Based on the background of the inaugural research method, this paper lays the research lens on a selection of contemporary issues including (i) the country’s dependence on imported rice supply, (ii) the impact of Covid-19 on the Malaysian palm oil and rubber sector, (iii) private involvement in improving the economy of the agricultural sector, (iv) the rise of agricultural e-commerce and the food industry, and (v) the industrial revolution of the concept of Internet of Things (IoT). Reflections on the discussion focused on the impact of the Movement Control Order implementation on the agricultural community consisting of smallholders and rural communities who generate income by selling agricultural produce were unable to market their agricultural produce as well as facing the risk of job loss. However, Covid-19 also has a positive impact, namely the increase in online agricultural trade (E-commerce) under the control of the Electronic Commerce Act 2006 and the Consumer Protection Act 1999. The direction of research and development in the agricultural sector with the collaboration of the private sector is very important as a factor in developing the country’s agricultural industry where the reduction of dependence on labour and instead increase the use of technology-intensive systems and environmentally friendly innovation.

Temporary overpessimism: Job loss expectations following a large negative employment shock

AbstractJob loss expectations were widespread amongst workers in East Germany following reunification with West Germany. Though experiencing a large negative employment shock, East German workers were nevertheless overpessimistic immediately after reunification with respect to their job loss risk. Over time, job loss expectations fell and converged to West German levels, which was driven by a stabilizing economic environment and by an adaptation of the interpretation of economic signals with workers learning to distinguish individual risk from firm‐level risk. In fact, conditional on actual job loss risk, East German workers quickly caught up to West Germans regarding the share of correctly predicted job losses.

고용불안인식과 정치기술이 잔류의도에 미치는 영향

The purpose of this study is to empirically research the inference that tourist hotel employees will recognize employment instability and use political skills as a means to avoid the risk of job loss. The survey was conducted from May 15th to May 30th, 2021 and 270 structured questionnaires were distributed via convenience extraction method. A total of 250 questionnaires (92.5%) were used for the final analysis. As for the theoretical implications, first, the results verified a negative causal relationship between cognition of employment instability and intention to stay, a positive causal relationship between cognition of employment instability and political skills, and a positive causal relationship between political skills and intention to stay, respectively. Second, as for the practical implications, the findings suggest that hotel managers should always prepare strategic alternatives to minimize damages to the company in the event of unpredictable and uncontrollable catastrophes.

Promise or precarity? South African attitudes towards the automation revolution

ABSTRACT Rapid technological advancement has prompted growing debate about the promise and challenges of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) for societies. Some believe it will improve efficiency, productivity and quality of life, while others emphasise the risk of job loss, inequality and social exclusion. Despite the salience of these changes for human development, public opinion research on these issues remains limited in South Africa. Using data from the South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS), we examine the extent and determinants of the public’s acceptance of robots and automation. The findings suggest that aversion to such technological change remains fairly high, and is informed by age, class, perceived labour market vulnerability, scientific knowledge, and confidence in government to manage adverse human consequences. The article concludes by arguing that national 4IR policy framework needs to consider the reservations expressed by many South Africans, and develop measures to protect the dignity and well-being of citizens across the life course.

Being Old in the Age of Aging: Macro-Level Determinants of Change in Perception of Old Age Threshold in EU Countries

Purpose: The question about the determinants of perception of old age still has not found an unequivocal answer in the literature. Most of the studies so far have concentrated on the analysis of micro factors in selected years. This study attempts to fill this gap by evaluating macro-level variables associated with changes in individual perception of the beginning of old age. Our analysis, which is based on the 2008 and 2018 editions of the European Social Survey, attempts to capture changes in the perception of old age. Design/Methodology/Approach: We have analysed four macro factors, health, socioeconomic, institutional, and the labor market. Among these groups, the socio-economic and labor market factors have the most considerable significance. The change of the real GDP per capita factor explains 13% of the variability of the perception of the old age threshold. Almost all labor market indicators, 55-64 employment rate, 65-69 and 75+ labor force participation rates, have proven to be statistically significant. Findings: The most notable result of this study is the significant role of factors related to the labor market, both concerning the old age perception threshold and the change of this threshold. Practical Implications: The study results provide a strong indication that the situation of the elderly in the labor market is the primary macro determinant of the perception of old age. Originality/Value: The results of our study indicate that the most effective tools of influencing the perception of the onset of old age are provided by labour market policy directed at employment support for people aged 55+, mainly 75+. This is a conclusion important from the point of view of the results of the COVID-19 pandemics, where the people most at risk are the eldest, both for health reasons (highest mortality in this age group), and for an increased risk of job loss, as such people, by having the right to a pension or drawing a pension, will be relatively least impacted financially by the loss of employment.

Labor Market Size and Firms’ Social Security Contribution Rate in China

As an important component of operating costs, excessive social security contribution reduces the willingness and contribution rate of small- and medium-sized firms. In China, one third of firms do not participate in social security, and the other firms generally have the problem of evasion and arrears. Specifically, Feng (2013) finds that the contribution rate of Chinese industrial firms is uneven, and the average rate is only 10.82%, far lower than the legal rate. How to explain the variation in social security contribution rate among firms? Is social security contribution the burden of business activities? Answering these questions helps to understand the motivation of firms’ social security contribution, bolster up the design of social security collection system, and provide theoretical and practical reference for the “cost reduction” of supply-side structural reform.This paper investigates the relationship between labor market size (LMS) and firms’ social security contribution rate (SSCR) based on the profit maximization framework. Given the dual effects of SSCR on firms’ labor productivity and financial distress cost, optimal SSCR is achieved when marginal income equals to marginal cost. As LMS expands, decreasing search cost and compensating differentials for job loss risk increase optimal SSCR. Further, the empirical results measuring LMS by industrial employment capacity find that LMS significantly increases firms’ SSCR belonging to the same industry, especially for firms with serious financial constraints, high unemployment cost and private ownership. In addition, increasing SSCR significantly deteriorates firms’ performance, suggesting that the cost effect plays a leading role.Our findings demonstrate that the behaviors of social security by firms are subject to industrial environment, suggesting that it is necessary to account for the issue when policymakers adjust economic policies. Our paper contributes to the literature in three aspects: First, from the perspective of endogenous social security contribution, we explore the impact of labor market size on firms’ social security contribution, which enriches the labor “thick market” theory and relevant literature of firms’ social security contribution. Second, we build a theoretical framework to explain the endogenous logic of labor market size affecting firms’ social security contribution. Third, understanding the logic of firms’ social security contribution provides a micro basis for the reform of social security collection and contribution system.

The occupational attainment and job security of immigrant children in Spain

ABSTRACT Little is known about the labour market integration of immigrants who arrived in Spain at an early age. Using longitudinal data from the Spanish LFS (2008–2016) we find that other things being equal the occupational attainment of Latin American, Eastern European and African 1.5-generation immigrants is similar to that of natives both for men and women. First-generation immigrants, however, suffer a persistent disadvantage even after controlling for sociodemographic factors and, importantly, time in the labour market. We also find that social class position does not protect equally against job loss, with a larger immigrant penalty at the bottom of the occupational structure. We find two different explanations for this depending on migration status. For the 1.5 generation, the higher risk of job loss across occupational groups is explained by compositional differences; while for the first generation, particularly men, it is explained by structural factors such as its persistent concentration over time in more vulnerable economic sectors and fixed-term contracts. Our findings confirm, in line with assimilation theory, that the 1.5 generation achieves better outcomes than the first in the Spanish labour market, likely due to their more favourable entry conditions into employment.

Parenthood, Gender, and the Risks and Consequences of Job Loss

Abstract Job loss can be difficult to navigate for individuals and their families. However, we know very little about the relationship between parental status and job loss. Drawing on rich data from Statistics Canada’s Workplace and Employee Survey, we analyse differences across gender and parental status groups in both risks of job loss and its consequences: re-employment, unemployment, and quality of new jobs relative to those that were lost. We find that parenthood reduces the probability of job loss for prime-age men with young children, but only when employer discretion is involved. This advantage is not shared by otherwise similar mothers or fathers of school-aged children, suggesting that employers are particularly sympathetic to risks to men’s breadwinning role in the early years of fatherhood. Despite similar risks of job loss relative to other groups, mothers of young children are the least likely to be re-employed in the subsequent year, mainly because of their higher levels of labour market withdrawal rather than unemployment. Holding out for “family friendly” work arrangements does not seem to account for this pattern. Overall, our results show that the risks and consequences of job loss strengthen connection to employment for fathers of young children while weakening connection for mothers. Job loss dynamics thus not only reflect but also reinforce asymmetrical breadwinning and caring roles for mothers and fathers of preschool-aged children.

COVID-19 Pandemic, Lockdown and the Indian Labour Market: Evidence from Periodic Labour Force Survey 2018–2019

Using the PLFS 2018-19, this study intends to analyse current labour market from the perspective of COVID-19 pandemic, subsequent lockdown and the expected slowdown in the Indian economy. We explore the questions such as: What share of workers will be able to work from home? Which are the vulnerable groups of workers in the labour market, that are likely to be the most affected? We show that 18-19% of non-farm workers are engaged in work from home (WFH) occupations, with women and urban areas having larger share of these workers. We find that 32 (10) % of non-farm workers in rural (urban) areas are vulnerable and face higher risk of job loss during a lockdown. JEL Codes: J10, J21, J63, J80, D69

Two sides, but not of the same coin: digitalization, productivity and unemployment

PurposeThis paper aims to examine how input from the digital restructuring of the workplace and productivity affects the risk of job loss and unemployment.Design/methodology/approachRelying on the concepts of technological unemployment and the productivity paradox as well as the theory of skills-biased technological change, the analysis incorporated micro-level individual determinants of job loss, macro-level economic determinants of input and the contribution from traditional (machinery and equipment) vs innovative (ICT) factors of production. The model has been also controlled for “traditional” indicators of “outsiderness” in the labour market. The Quality of Work Life Survey, which is a broad-based national interview survey produced by Statistics Finland, for 2018, the latest year available (N = 4,110) has been used in the analysis. Binomial logistic regression has been applied in order to estimate the effects of individual- and macro-level factors on the risk of job loss.FindingsThe results support arguments for the divergence between effects from labour- vs total-factor productivity on the risks of job loss, as well as the divergence between effects for temporary (layoff) vs permanent job loss (dismissal or unemployment). While the contribution from “traditional” factors of production to labour productivity potentially decreases the risk of permanent job loss, input from “innovative” factors of production on total-factor productivity potentially causes adverse effects (e.g. growing risks of permanent job loss).Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the theoretical discussion about technological unemployment and productivity by means of including two different concepts into a single econometric model, thus enabling examination of the research problem in an innovative way.

Temporary Overpessimism: Job Loss Expectations Following a Large Negative Employment Shock

Job loss expectations were widespread among workers in East Germany after reunification with West Germany. Though experiencing a large negative employment shock, East German workers were still overpessimistic immediately after reunification with respect to their job risk. Over time, job loss expectations fell and converged to West German levels, which was driven by a stabilizing economic environment and by an adaptation of the interpretation of economic signals with workers learning to distinguish individual risk from firm level risk. In fact, conditional on actual job loss risk, East German workers quickly caught up to West Germans regarding the accuracy of job loss expectations. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Education 4.0 and Teachers: Challenges, Risks and Benefits

The aim of the present study is to investigate and capture teachers’ attitudes towards the principles, benefits and risks of Education 4.0, as it is shaped in the context of the 4th Industrial Revolution. The methodology followed is the quantitative one and specifically an improvised questionnaire was structured. It was answered by a sample of 233 primary education teachers of the Region of Western Greece. Data was analyzed using the statistical software SPSS 26.0 for Windows. The results of the research show that teachers believe that students will have more opportunities to learn at different times and in different locations with tools tailored to their individual abilities and will choose the devices, programs and methods by which they will learn. In addition, the use of technology in education will improve learning outcomes, will help save material resources and improve teachers' communication with parents, students and education staff. However, participating teachers believe that the use of technology entails a greater workload for them, leads to the creation of unknown and demanding professions, leads to sharper inequalities and widens the social gap. In addition, there is a very high risk of job losses and is related to the feeling of insecurity and danger. At the same time, it raises moral issues, threatens individuality and the private sphere of life, homogenizes the views of people and polarizes societies. Finally, additional studies, employment, overall service and training in new technologies have a statistically significant effect on teachers' perceptions.

Newly diagnosed disease and job loss: a nationwide longitudinal study among middle-aged Japanese

ObjectivesSince previous studies have only used past or current medical history of disease, there is no information on newly diagnosed disease in relation to job loss. Our objective was therefore...

Job loss risk, expected mobility, and home ownership

Geographic mobility is a key factor affecting the home purchase decision, and a common reason for moving is to find work. Yet, little is known regarding how job loss risk affects home ownership via the mobility channel. Measuring this effect is difficult because job loss risk usually coincides with income and credit shocks. We isolate the mobility channel by studying economics professors on the tenure track. Our analysis uses public records to provide the first quantitative estimates of this effect, and we validate our results with a follow-up survey. A one percentage point increase in expected mobility, identified via variation in tenure risk, reduces the probability of home ownership by up to 1.8 percentage points.

Burdens, Resilience, and Mutual Support: A Comparative Study of Families in China and South Korea Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic disrupts established daily routines, it underlines the role that families play in redefining social order and reorganizing people’s economic and social lives. In this paper, we investigate methods that Chinese and South Korean families have adopted to cope with the rapid changes brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. We emphasize families’ responses to sudden changes in three domains: education and home schooling, economic downturn and unemployment, and mental health challenges. By integrating online education and remote working into a new form of family life and sharing economic and emotional risks among members, families shape social order during a period of unprecedented uncertainty. We highlight the fact that family members experience intensified work-family or school-family conflicts. Disadvantaged families are the most severely affected, as they are at high risk of job loss and lack proper protections. The absence of institutional protections and interventions has created further economic and emotional hardships for these vulnerable families. Informal and nonregular workers require more stable labor market conditions for the well-being of their families. Future research may include a systematic data collection and analysis of disadvantaged families, as this would offer a better understanding of the challenges and untenable choices that families face during times of crisis.

Socioeconomic Consequences of Traumatic Brain Injury: A Danish Nationwide Register-Based Study.

This study examined if acquiring a traumatic brain injury (TBI) increases utilization of health care costs, increases risk of job loss for the patient and the closest relatives, and increases the risk of divorce 1 to 5 years following the injury. The study was conducted as a Danish national population-based register study with follow-up. Participants included a cohort of patients with TBI (n = 18,328) admitted to a hospital or treated in an emergency room (ER) and a matching control group (n = 89,155). For both the TBI group and the matching controls, relatives were identified, using national registers (TBI relatives: n = 25,708 and control relatives: n = 135,325). The outcome measures were utilization of health care costs (including hospital services, use of general practitioner and practicing specialists, and prescribed medication), risk of job loss, and risk of divorce among the TBI group and the control group and their relatives. Patients with TBI had significantly increased health care costs at baseline (i.e., the year before the injury) and during the following 4 years. Further, TBI relatives had a significantly higher utilization of health care costs the first and the third year after injury. The TBI group had a significant increased risk of job loss (odds ratio [OR] = 2.88; confidence interval [CI]: 2.70-3.07) and divorce (OR = 1.44; CI: 1.27-1.64) during the first 3 years following injury. In conclusion, the TBI group had significantly higher utilization of health care costs, both pre-morbidly and post-injury. Further, increased risk of job loss and divorce were found, emphasizing that the socioeconomic consequences of TBI last for years post-injury.

Early evidence of the impacts of COVID-19 on minority unemployment

This paper provides early evidence of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on minority unemployment in the United States. In the first month following March adoptions of social distancing measures by states, unemployment rose to 14.5% but a much higher 24.4% when we correct for potential data misclassification noted by the BLS. Using the official definition, unemployment in April 2020 among African-Americans rose by less than what would have been anticipated (to 16.6%) based on previous recessions, and the long-term ordering of unemployment across racial/ethnic groups was altered with Latinx unemployment (18.2%) rising for the first time to the highest among major groups. Difference-in-difference estimates confirm that the initial gap in unemployment between whites and blacks in April was not different than in periods prior to the pandemic; however, the racial gap expanded as unemployment for whites declined in the next two months but was largely stagnant for blacks. The initially large gap in unemployment between whites and Latinx in April was sustained in May and June as unemployment declined similarly for both groups. Non-linear decompositions show a favorable industry distribution partly protected black employment during the early stages of the pandemic, but that an unfavorable occupational distribution and lower average skills levels placed them at higher risk of job losses. An unfavorable occupational distribution and lower skills contributed to a sharply widened Latinx-white unemployment gap that moderated over time as rehiring occurred. These findings of disproportionate impacts on minority unemployment raise important concerns regarding lost earnings and wealth, and longer-term consequences of the pandemic on racial inequality in the United States.

Child Maltreatment during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Consequences of Parental Job Loss on Psychological and Physical Abuse Towards Children

BackgroundJob loss resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic presents significant risk for child abuse. Protective factors, such as reframing coping, may mitigate the risk of job loss on child maltreatment. ObjectiveThe current study investigated factors associated with child maltreatment during the COVID-19 pandemic, including parental job loss, and whether cognitive reframing moderated associations between job loss and child maltreatment. MethodA community sample of 342 parents (62% mothers) of 4- to 10-year-olds (M = 7.38, SD = 2.01; 57.3% male) living in the United States completed online questionnaires regarding experiences with COVID-19, the Parent-Child Conflict Tactics Scale, and the Family Crisis Oriented Personal Evaluation Scales. ResultsTwo logistic regression analyses evaluated predictors of whether parents psychologically maltreated or physically abused their children during the pandemic controlling for maltreating history, parental depressive symptoms, financial stability, parent age, parent gender, child age, and child gender. Parents who lost their jobs (OR = 4.86, 95% CI [1.19, 19.91], p = .03), were more depressed (OR = 1.05, 95% CI [1.02, 1.08], p < .01), and previously psychologically maltreated their children (OR = 111.94, 95% CI [28.54, 439.01], p < .001) were more likely to psychologically maltreat during the pandemic. Regarding physical abuse, a significant interaction between job loss and reframing coping emerged (OR = 0.76, 95% CI [0.59, 0.99], p = .04). Among parents who lost their jobs, the probability of physical abuse decreased as reframing coping increased. ConclusionsJob loss during the COVID-19 pandemic is a significant risk factor for child maltreatment. Reframing coping may be an important buffer of this association on physical abuse and presents implications for maltreatment prevention.

Offshoring, job satisfaction and job insecurity

Abstract This paper investigates the effects of offshoring on individual job satisfaction and perceived risk of job loss. The authors merge microdata from the German Socio-economic Panel dataset (SOEP) with indicators of insertion in global value chains at the industry level for the period 2000–2013. They test two hypotheses. First, the authors investigate whether workers in industries with higher offshoring intensity report lower job satisfaction and/or are more prone to be unsecure at their jobs. Second, they test whether these effects differ among four categories of collars. Their findings indicate that offshoring is associated with lower job satisfaction. The results are also indicative of some heterogeneity in the offshoring effect, with high skilled white-collar workers being mostly unaffected by offshoring and low skilled blue-collar workers showing the largest negative effects. Discriminating between manufacturing and services activities, the authors find that the extent of heterogeneity and the offshoring effect is relatively larger in manufacturing industries. They also find that the effect of offshoring intensity upon job satisfaction is more negative and significant in periods of economic decline. Finally, the results show that offshoring is not significantly related with job insecurity, a result that applies to all workers’ categories. Still, in a period of economic decline job insecurity may increase when the offshoring intensity rises.