Risk Of Hospitalization For COVID-19 Research Articles

A Multimorbidity Analysis of Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 in Northwest Italy: Longitudinal Study Using Evolutionary Machine Learning and Health Administrative Data.

Multimorbidity is a significant public health concern, characterized by the coexistence and interaction of multiple preexisting medical conditions. This complex condition has been associated with an increased risk of COVID-19. Individuals with multimorbidity who contract COVID-19 often face a significant reduction in life expectancy. The postpandemic period has also highlighted an increase in frailty, emphasizing the importance of integrating existing multimorbidity details into epidemiological risk assessments. Managing clinical data that include medical histories presents significant challenges, particularly due to the sparsity of data arising from the rarity of multimorbidity conditions. Also, the complex enumeration of combinatorial multimorbidity features introduces challenges associated with combinatorial explosions. This study aims to assess the severity of COVID-19 in individuals with multiple medical conditions, considering their demographic characteristics such as age and sex. We propose an evolutionary machine learning model designed to handle sparsity, analyzing preexisting multimorbidity profiles of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 based on their medical history. Our objective is to identify the optimal set of multimorbidity feature combinations strongly associated with COVID-19 severity. We also apply the Apriori algorithm to these evolutionarily derived predictive feature combinations to identify those with high support. We used data from 3 administrative sources in Piedmont, Italy, involving 12,793 individuals aged 45-74 years who tested positive for COVID-19 between February and May 2020. From their 5-year pre-COVID-19 medical histories, we extracted multimorbidity features, including drug prescriptions, disease diagnoses, sex, and age. Focusing on COVID-19 hospitalization, we segmented the data into 4 cohorts based on age and sex. Addressing data imbalance through random resampling, we compared various machine learning algorithms to identify the optimal classification model for our evolutionary approach. Using 5-fold cross-validation, we evaluated each model's performance. Our evolutionary algorithm, utilizing a deep learning classifier, generated prediction-based fitness scores to pinpoint multimorbidity combinations associated with COVID-19 hospitalization risk. Eventually, the Apriori algorithm was applied to identify frequent combinations with high support. We identified multimorbidity predictors associated with COVID-19 hospitalization, indicating more severe COVID-19 outcomes. Frequently occurring morbidity features in the final evolved combinations were age>53, R03BA (glucocorticoid inhalants), and N03AX (other antiepileptics) in cohort 1; A10BA (biguanide or metformin) and N02BE (anilides) in cohort 2; N02AX (other opioids) and M04AA (preparations inhibiting uric acid production) in cohort 3; and G04CA (Alpha-adrenoreceptor antagonists) in cohort 4. When combined with other multimorbidity features, even less prevalent medical conditions show associations with the outcome. This study provides insights beyond COVID-19, demonstrating how repurposed administrative data can be adapted and contribute to enhanced risk assessment for vulnerable populations.

The role of plant-based dietary patterns in reducing COVID-19 risk and/or severity in adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

Background & AimsPlant-based dietary patterns (PBDs) might protect against COVID-19 risk and reduce severity of infection. This systematic review with meta-analysis aimed to examine the association between PBDs and risk of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and/or mortality, in adults. MethodsPubmed, Embase, CINAHL and Web of Science were searched for observational studies, published in English up to 3rd April 2023, comparing the highest with the lowest adherence to a specific PBD. Data were screened, extracted, and risk of bias assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale, by independent reviewers. ResultsSeven studies (one cross-sectional, three case-control, and three prospective cohort), reporting on 649,315 participants, were eligible. Across them, there were 8,512 events of COVID-19 infection (six studies), and 206 events of COVID-19 hospitalization (four studies), in addition to one study reporting on a composite hospitalization outcome (740 events). The pooled analysis showed that PBDs are associated with a 59% (odds ratio (OR)=0.41, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.23-0.59; two studies) and 18% (OR=0.82, 95% CI 0.78-0.85; three studies) reduction in COVID-19 infection risk in case-control and cohort studies, respectively. The pooled analysis of one case-control and two cohort studies showed an inverse association between high adherence to a PBD and risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (OR=0.38, 95% CI 0.04-0.72). ConclusionFindings suggest a protective role of PBDs against the risk of COVID-19 infection and severity. More studies are needed to establish the association between PBDs and risk of ICU admission and mortality due to COVID-19.

Current use of estrogen-containing oral contraceptives or hormone therapy and risk of COVID-19 infection and hospitalization: a population-based cohort study.

This population-based cohort study evaluated the association between current use of oral contraceptives (OC) among women under 50 years (n=306,541), and hormone therapy (HT) among women aged 50 or older (n=323,203), and COVID-19 infection and hospitalization. Current OC/HT use was recorded monthly using prescription dispensing data. COVID-19 infections were identified March 2020-February 2021. COVID-19 infection and hospitalization were identified through diagnosis codes and laboratory tests. Weighted generalized estimating equations models estimated multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for COVID-19 infection associated with time-varying OC/HT use. Among women with COVID-19, logistic regression models evaluated OC/HT use and COVID-19 hospitalization. Over 12 months, 11,727 (3.8%) women <50 years and 8,661 (2.7%) women ≥50 years experienced COVID-19 infections. There was no evidence of an association between OC use and infection (aOR=1.05; 95%CI: 0.97, 1.12). There was a modest association between HT use and infection (aOR=1.19; 95%CI: 1.03, 1.38). Women using OC had a 39% lower risk of hospitalization (aOR=0.61; 95%CI: 0.38, 1.00), but there was no association of HT use with hospitalization (aOR=0.89; 95%CI: 0.51, 1.53). These findings do not suggest a meaningfully greater risk of COVID-19 infection associated with OC or HT use. OC use may be associated with lower COVID-19 hospitalization risk.

Risk factors for COVID-19 hospitalisation after booster vaccination during the Omicron period: A French nationwide cohort study

BackgroundIn spite of major effectiveness, a residual risk after COVID-19 primary vaccination was identified, in particular, for vulnerable individuals of advanced age or with comorbidities. Less is known about the Omicron period in people protected by a booster dose. We aimed to identify the characteristics associated with severe COVID-19 during the Omicron period in a population that had received a booster dose in France and to compare differences with the previous periods of the pandemic. MethodsThis study was carried out using the French national COVID-19 vaccination database (VAC-SI) coupled with the National Health Data System (SNDS). Individuals aged 12 years or over who received at least one booster dose were identified. Associations between socio-demographic and clinical characteristics and the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation occurring at least 14 days after receiving a third dose of vaccine during the period of Omicron predominance, i.e., from 1 January 2022 to 10 November 2022, were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, time since booster dose and vaccination schedule. Analyses were performed overall and by sub-period of circulation of the strains BA.1, BA.2, and BA.4/BA.5, defined as periods where the main sub-variant accounted for more than 80 % of genotyped samples. FindingsIn total, 35,640,387 individuals received a booster dose (mean follow-up of 291 days) and 73,989 were hospitalised for COVID-19 during the total period. Older age (aHR 20.5 95 % CI [19.6–21.5] for 90 years of age or older versus 45–54 years of age), being male (aHR 1.52 [1.50–1.55]), and social deprivation (aHR 1.33 [1.30–1.37] for the most deprived areas versus the least deprived) were associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation for COVID-19. Most of the chronic diseases considered were also positively associated with a residual risk, in particular, cystic fibrosis (aHR 9.83 [7.68–12.56]), active lung cancer (aHR 3.26 [3.06–3.47]), chronic dialysis (aHR 3.79 [3.49–4.11]), psychological and neurodegenerative diseases (more markedly than during the periods of circulation of the alpha and delta variants), and organ transplantation. The use of immunosuppressants was also associated with an increased risk (aHR 2.24 [2.14–2.35], including oral corticosteroids aHR (2.58 [2.50–2.67]). ConclusionDespite an effective booster and a generally less virulent circulating variant, a residual risk of severe COVID-19 still exists in vulnerable populations, especially those with neurological disorders.

Relative vaccine protection, disease severity, and symptoms associated with the SARS-CoV-2 omicron subvariant BA.2.86 and descendant JN.1 in Denmark: a nationwide observational study

During the 2023 Danish COVID-19 vaccination campaign, an updated monovalent mRNA vaccine targeting the SARS-CoV-2 omicron XBB.1.5 subvariant was administered. However, the rapid spread of a genetically divergent omicron BA.2.86 subvariant, JN.1, since September, 2023, poses potential challenges due to its rapid dominance and possible immune escape. Using national electronic health registry data from all regions of Denmark, we aimed to investigate whether the SARS-CoV-2 subvariant BA.2.86, and its descendant JN.1, differed from other circulating variants in terms of their ability to escape vaccine protection, the risk of infection leading to severe disease, and self-reported symptoms among infected people. In this observational study, we included all residents of Denmark aged 65 years and older who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2023, and for whom genomic data on the SARS-CoV-2 variant that had caused their infection were available. Data from clinical testing, sentinel, and self-sampling-based surveillance were linked with national electronic civil, vaccination, and hospitalisation registers. The relative protection of the XBB.1.5 updated COVID-19 vaccine against BA.2.86 infections versus infections with other variants was analysed in a case-only study, and the relative risk of hospitalisation in people infected with BA.2.86 versus other variants was analysed in a case-control study. Both analyses were adjusted for time, comorbidities, and previous vaccination history, among other potential confounders. Additionally, prevalence patterns in self-reported symptoms among people of all ages infected with SARS-CoV-2 were reported separately by subvariant. Of the 7581 people in Denmark aged 65 years or older who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR during the study period, 5882 (78%) samples were eligible for sequencing. 3862 (66%) of these passed quality control, were successfully sequenced, and the SARS-CoV-2 variant and subvariant identified, and these individuals were included in the study. Of these 3862 people, 2184 (57%) were infected with the BA.2.86 subvariant, including 1615 JN.1 infections. Participants infected with BA.2.86 had 1·52 (95% CI 1·25-1·86) times the odds, and those infected with JN.1 had 1·60 (1·27-2·02) times the odds, of having received the XBB.1.5 vaccine at least 7 days before their infection compared with participants infected with a non-BA.2.86 variant. The severity analysis showed no evidence of association between the infecting variant and the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation (odds ratio 1·04 [95% CI 0·86-1·26] for BA.2.86 and 1·07 [0·85-1·34] for JN.1). Similarly, there was no evidence of differences in self-reported symptoms by variant strain. Compared with other SARS-CoV-2 variants, BA.2.86 and the JN.1 sublineage were less sensitive to vaccine-induced immune protection from the XBB.1.5 updated COVID-19 vaccine; however, we found no evidence that infection with BA.2.86 or JN.1 resulted in increased disease severity or different symptom profiles. Although less effective against the new variants, XBB.1.5 vaccination remains protective and reduces the risk of infection and COVID-19 disease. The Danish Government and the EU's EU4Health programme.

Comparative effectiveness of sotrovimab versus no treatment in non-hospitalised high-risk COVID-19 patients in north west London: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundWe assessed the effectiveness of sotrovimab vs no early COVID-19 treatment in highest-risk COVID-19 patients during Omicron predominance.MethodsRetrospective cohort study using the Discover dataset in North West London. Included patients...

Association of anti-diabetic drugs and COVID-19 outcomes in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and cardiomyopathy

There is a scarcity of information on the population with diabetes mellitus type 2 and cardiomyopathy (PDMC) in COVID-19, especially on the association between anti-diabetic medications and COVID-19 outcomes. Study is designed as a retrospective cohort analysis covering 2020 and 2021. Data from National Diabetes Registry (CroDiab) were linked to hospital data, primary healthcare data, the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination database, and the SARS-CoV-2 test results database. Study outcomes were cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 positivity, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and COVID-19 deaths. For outcome predictors, logistic regression models were developed. Of 231 796 patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 in the database, 14 485 patients had cardiomyopathy. The two2-year cumulative incidence of all three studies' COVID-19 outcomes was higher in PDMC than in the general diabetes population (positivity 15.3% vs. 14.6%, p = 0.01; hospitalization 7.8% vs. 4.4%, p < 0.001; death 2.6% vs. 1.2%, p < 0.001). Sodium-Glucose Transporter 2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors therapy was found to be protective of SARS-CoV-2 infections [OR 0.722 (95% CI 0.610–0.856)] and COVID-19 hospitalizations [OR 0.555 (95% CI 0.418–0.737)], sulfonylureas to be risk factors for hospitalization [OR 1.184 (95% CI 1.029–1.362)] and insulin to be a risk factor for hospitalization [OR 1.261 (95% CI 1.046–1.520)] and death [OR 1.431 (95% CI 1.080–1.897)]. PDMC are at greater risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection and having worse outcomes than the general diabetic population. SGLT-2 inhibitors therapy was a protective factor against SARS-CoV-2 infection and against COVID-19 hospitalization, sulfonylurea was the COVID-19 hospitalization risk factor, while insulin was a risk factor for all outcomes. Further research is needed in this diabetes sub-population.

Abstract P129: Risk of COVID-19 Hospitalization or Death by the AHA's Life’s Essential 8: The Collaborative Cohort of Cohorts for COVID-19 Research (C4R)

Background: It is unknown how cardiovascular health (CVH) relates to severe Covid-19 illness in adults without clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD). We hypothesized that more optimal Life’s Essential 8 (LE8)-quantified CVH is associated with lower risk of severe Covid-19 among US adults without clinical CVD. Methods: C4R is ascertaining Covid-19 events in 14 NIH cohorts via questionnaires, serosurvey, and medical record adjudication. We included cohorts with pre-pandemic LE8 measures of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure (BP), lipids, diet, glucose, physical activity, smoking, and sleep in participants without clinical CVD. Covid-19 was defined as severe (hospitalization, death) or non-severe (all other events). Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard models compared incident Covid-19 by LE8 quartiles, with non-severe and severe Covid-19 as competing risks. Models were censored at first event, stratified by cohort, and adjusted for sociodemographics and vaccinations at time of Covid-19. Results: Among 21,300 participants in 7 cohorts (mean [SD] age 67 years [14], 61% female, 2% American Indian, 4% Asian, 16% Black, 33% White, 43% Hispanic), mean (SD) LE8 was 65 (14). In 3/2020-9/2022, there were 3,034 non-severe and 488 severe Covid-19 cases. The best CVH quartile (Q) 4 had more non-severe and fewer severe Covid-19 events. The Q4 vs. Q1 aHR was 1.08 (95% CI 0.98, 1.20) for non-severe Covid-19 and 0.59 (0.45, 0.77) for severe Covid-19. Examining LE8 components separately, better status on 5 LE8 components (BMI, BP, glucose, physical activity, smoking) was associated with significantly lower risk of severe Covid-19, whereas 3 were not associated (cholesterol, diet, sleep; data not shown). Conclusions: Better LE8-quantified CVH was associated with 41% lower risk of severe Covid-19 events in adults without clinical CVD. Further research is needed to elucidate mechanisms of Covid-19 resilience and the role of CVH-directed interventions to reduce risks of severe Covid-19.

Epilepsy and the risk of COVID-19-related hospitalization and death: A population study.

People with epilepsy (PWE) may be at an increased risk of severe COVID-19. It is important to characterize this risk to inform PWE and for future health and care planning. We assessed whether PWE were at higher risk of being hospitalized with, or dying from, COVID-19. We performed a retrospective cohort study using linked, population-scale, anonymized electronic health records from the SAIL (Secure Anonymised Information Linkage) databank. This includes hospital admission and demographic data for the complete Welsh population (3.1 million) and primary care records for 86% of the population. We identified 27 279 PWE living in Wales during the study period (March 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021). Controls were identified using exact 5:1 matching (sex, age, and socioeconomic status). We defined COVID-19 deaths as having International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes for COVID-19 on death certificates or occurring within 28 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. COVID-19 hospitalizations were defined as having a COVID-19 ICD-10 code for the reason for admission or occurring within 28 days of a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. We recorded COVID-19 vaccinations and comorbidities known to increase the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and death. We used Cox proportional hazard models to calculate hazard ratios. There were 158 (.58%) COVID-19 deaths and 933 (3.4%) COVID-19 hospitalizations in PWE, and 370 (.27%) deaths and 1871 (1.4%) hospitalizations in controls. Hazard ratios for COVID-19 death and hospitalization in PWE compared to controls were 2.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.78-2.59) and 2.15 (95% CI = 1.94-2.37), respectively. Adjusted hazard ratios (adjusted for comorbidities) for death and hospitalization were 1.32 (95% CI = 1.08-1.62) and 1.60 (95% CI = 1.44-1.78). PWE are at increased risk of being hospitalized with, and dying from, COVID-19 when compared to age-, sex-, and deprivation-matched controls, even when adjusting for comorbidities. This may have implications for prioritizing future COVID-19 treatments and vaccinations for PWE.

Risk of COVID-19 Hospitalization and Protection Associated With mRNA Vaccination Among US Adults With Psychiatric Disorders.

Although psychiatric disorders have been associated with reduced immune responses to other vaccines, it remains unknown whether they influence COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). This study evaluated risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and estimated mRNA VE stratified by psychiatric disorder status. In a retrospective cohort analysis of the VISION Network in four US states, the rate of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalization between December 2021 and August 2022 was compared across psychiatric diagnoses and by monovalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccination status using Cox proportional hazards regression. Among 2,436,999 adults, 22.1% had ≥1 psychiatric disorder. The incidence of COVID-19-associated hospitalization was higher among patients with any versus no psychiatric disorder (394 vs. 156 per 100,000 person-years, p < 0.001). Any psychiatric disorder (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.27; 95% CI, 1.18-1.37) and mood (aHR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.15-1.36), anxiety (aHR, 1.33, 95% CI, 1.22-1.45), and psychotic (aHR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.14-1.74) disorders were each significant independent predictors of hospitalization. Among patients with any psychiatric disorder, aHRs for the association between vaccination and hospitalization were 0.35 (95% CI, 0.25-0.49) after a recent second dose, 0.08 (95% CI, 0.06-0.11) after a recent third dose, and 0.33 (95% CI, 0.17-0.66) after a recent fourth dose, compared to unvaccinated patients. Corresponding VE estimates were 65%, 92%, and 67%, respectively, and were similar among patients with no psychiatric disorder (68%, 92%, and 79%). Psychiatric disorders were associated with increased risk of COVID-19-associated hospitalization. However, mRNA vaccination provided similar protection regardless of psychiatric disorder status, highlighting its benefit for individuals with psychiatric disorders.

COVID-19 hospitalization risk after outpatient nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use, January to August 2022, North Carolina.

In the USA, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir is authorized for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients at least 12 years of age, at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19. To estimate the impact of outpatient nirmatrelvir/ritonavir on COVID-19 hospitalization risk in a US healthcare system. We conducted a cohort study using electronic health records among outpatients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test between January and August 2022. We evaluated the association of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir therapy with time to hospitalization by estimating adjusted HRs and assessed the impact of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir on predicted COVID-19 hospitalizations using machine-learning methods. Among 44 671 patients, 4948 (11%) received nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 201 (0.4%) were hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients were more likely to be older, white, vaccinated, have comorbidities and reside in areas with higher average socioeconomic status. The 28 day cumulative incidence of hospitalization was 0.06% (95% CI: 0.02%-0.17%) among nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients and 0.52% (95% CI: 0.46%-0.60%) among non-recipients. For nirmatrelvir/ritonavir versus no therapy, the age-adjusted HR was 0.08 (95% CI: 0.03-0.26); the fully adjusted HR was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.05-0.50). In the machine-learning model, the primary features reducing predicted hospitalization risk were nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, younger age, vaccination, female gender and residence in a higher socioeconomic status area. COVID-19 hospitalization risk was reduced by 84% among nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients in a large, diverse healthcare system during the Omicron wave. These results suggest that nirmatrelvir/ritonavir remained highly effective in a setting substantially different than the original clinical trials.

Genetic Analysis of Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Its Relationship with Severe COVID-19.

Rationale: Although patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) have a higher risk for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalization, the causal relationship has remained unexplored. Objectives: To understand the causal relationship between OSA and COVID-19 by leveraging data from vaccination and electronic health records, genetic risk factors from genome-wide association studies, and Mendelian randomization. Methods: We elucidated genetic risk factors for OSA using FinnGen (total N = 377,277), performing genome-wide association. We used the associated variants as instruments for univariate and multivariate Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses and computed absolute risk reduction against COVID-19 hospitalization with or without vaccination. Results: We identified nine novel loci for OSA and replicated our findings in the Million Veteran Program. Furthermore, MR analysis showed that OSA was a causal risk factor for severe COVID-19 (P = 9.41 × 10-4). Probabilistic modeling showed that the strongest genetic risk factor for OSA at the FTO locus reflected a signal of higher body mass index (BMI), whereas BMI-independent association was seen with the earlier reported SLC9A4 locus and a MECOM locus, which is a transcriptional regulator with 210-fold enrichment in the Finnish population. Similarly, multivariate MR analysis showed that the causality for severe COVID-19 was driven by BMI (multivariate MR P = 5.97 × 10-6, β = 0.47). Finally, vaccination reduced the risk for COVID-19 hospitalization more in the patients with OSA than in the non-OSA controls, with respective absolute risk reductions of 13.3% versus 6.3%. Conclusions: Our analysis identified novel genetic risk factors for OSA and showed that OSA is a causal risk factor for severe COVID-19. The effect is predominantly explained by higher BMI and suggests BMI-dependent effects at the level of individual variants and at the level of comorbid causality.

Exploring the Potential Association between COVID-19 and Thyroid Cancer: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

In order to address the ongoing debate surrounding the potential link between COVID-19 and thyroid cancer, our study was specifically designed to investigate the association between these two factors. We acquired summary data from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) concerning COVID-19 susceptibility and severity of COVID-19 in the European population, with a focus on their relationship with thyroid cancer. We applied three distinct methodologies to evaluate the causality between COVID-19 and thyroid cancer, employing Mendelian randomization (MR)-Egger, weighted median (WM), and inverse variance-weighted (IVW) approaches. Furthermore, we utilized a variety of techniques to assess pleiotropy and heterogeneity, including the MR-Egger intercept, MR-pleiotropy residual sum and outlier method (PRESSO), and Cochran's Q test. The MR analysis revealed associations between the susceptibility of COVID-19 and thyroid cancer (IVW odds ratio [OR]: 2.826, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [0.842, 9.483], P = 0.093) as well as between the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and thyroid cancer (IVW OR: 1.630, 95% CI: [1.050, 2.529], P = 0.029). However, the relationship between COVID-19 and the occurrence of severe thyroid cancer cases was less evident (IVW OR: 1.061, 95% CI: [0.575, 1.956], P = 0.850). Our sensitivity analyses did not reveal any signs of horizontal pleiotropy or heterogeneity. Our MR study provided compelling evidence supporting a causal connection between the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and thyroid cancer. Nevertheless, the MR results derived from genetic data do not support a causal link between susceptibility to COVID-19 and the risk of thyroid cancer or between very severe cases of COVID-19 and the risk of thyroid cancer. These findings have significant implications for further investigations into the impact of COVID-19 on health and the etiology of thyroid cancer.

Global cardiovascular risk, COVID-19 severity and post-COVID-19 syndrome: a clinical study.

Post-COVID-19 is a syndrome defined by signs and symptoms present until 12 weeks after COVID-19, lasting for more than 8 weeks, not explained by an alternative diagnosis. The present study aimed to assess whether the cardiovascular risk (CVR) of patients with COVID-19 correlates with symptoms and changes in respiratory function parameters in post-COVID-19. The association between CVR and the severity of acute disease was also considered. Between 21/04/21-01/09/21, we enrolled 1,782 consecutive patients with COVID-19. We divided these subjects into (i) 4 levels, based on the severity of COVID-19 (home care; hospitalized/no oxygen therapy; hospitalized/oxygen therapy; hospitalized/NIV-ICU), (ii) 2 levels, according to CVR calculated with the European Society of Cardiology SCORE tables (low-intermediate risk; high or very high risk). All subjects underwent a 3-month follow-up considering post-COVID-19 symptoms. In post-COVID-19 patients, high or very-high CVR was associated with (i) increased risk of hospitalization for COVID-19 (p<0.0001), (ii) higher prevalence of severe clinical manifestations and ICU admission (p<0.0001), (iii) development of post-COVID-19 (p<0.0001) and (iv) increased risk of a larger post-COVID-19 burden of disease. We found a statistically significant association between CVR, severity of COVID-19, and post-COVID-19 syndrome three months after the end of acute disease.

External validation of the QCovid 2 and 3 risk prediction algorithms for risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality in adults: a national cohort study in Scotland

ObjectiveThe QCovid 2 and 3 algorithms are risk prediction tools developed during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic that can be used to predict the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation...

Clinical risk associated with COVID-19 among 86000 patients with congenital heart disease

ObjectiveTo determine the magnitude of any excess risk of mortality and hospitalisation due to COVID-19 infection in patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) in the UK healthcare system.MethodsMatched case–control study...

Outpatient randomized controlled trials to reduce COVID-19 hospitalization: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

This COVID-19 outpatient randomized controlled trials (RCTs) systematic review compares hospitalization outcomes amongst four treatment classes over pandemic period, geography, variants, and vaccine status.Outpatient RCTs with hospitalization endpoint were identified in Pubmed searches through May 2023, excluding RCTs <30 participants (PROSPERO-CRD42022369181). Risk of bias was extracted from COVID-19-NMA, with odds ratio utilized for pooled comparison.Searches identified 281 studies with 61 published RCTs for 33 diverse interventions analyzed. RCTs were largely unvaccinated cohorts with at least one COVID-19 hospitalization risk factor. Grouping by class, monoclonal antibodies (mAbs)(OR = 0.31 [95% CI = 0.24-0.40]) had highest hospital reduction efficacy, followed by COVID-19 convalescent plasma(CCP) (OR = 0.69 [95% CI = 0.53-0.90]), small molecule antivirals (OR = 0.78 [95% CI = 0.48-1.33]), and repurposed drugs (OR = 0.82 [95% CI: 0.72-0.93]). Earlier in disease onset interventions performed better than later. This meta-analysis allows approximate head-to-head comparisons of diverse outpatient interventions.Omicron sublineages (XBB and BQ.1.1) are resistant to mAbsDespite trial heterogeneity, this pooled comparison by intervention class indicated oral antivirals are the preferred outpatient treatment where available, but intravenous interventions from convalescent plasma to remdesivir are also effective and necessary in constrained medical resource settings or for acute and chronic COVID-19 in the immunocompromised.

1095. Increased Risk of COVID-19 Hospitalization and Death in Vaccinated Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) and Dialysis: Initial Results from INFORM, a Retrospective Health Database Observational Study in England

Abstract Background Individuals with immunocompromised conditions (IC) have a higher risk of COVID-19 morbidity and death despite vaccination. Though patients (pts) with ESRD are considered immunocompromised and have a weaker antibody response to COVID-19 vaccination, some guidelines do not currently recommend pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for these pts. This is due to the fact that boosters are believed to increase seropositivity and antibody production in pts on dialysis. The INFORM study aimed to describe the health burden of severe COVID-19, and here initial results are presented for fully vaccinated pts with ESRD or dialysis (ESRD or D); fully vaccinated pts with ESRD receiving dialysis (ESRD+D), and the fully vaccinated overall population (OP) aged ≥ 12 years or a subgroup aged ≥ 65 years. Methods The proportions, rates per 100 person-years (PY), and risks of COVID-19–related outcomes (hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and mortality) in fully vaccinated (≥ 3 doses) pts aged ≥ 12 years in England, UK were identified using the National Health Service (NHS) databases between Jan 1, 2022–Dec 31, 2022. Only outcomes with COVID-19 recorded as the primary diagnosis were included. Results A total of 19,450 (0.3%) pts with ESRD or D, including 8390 (0.1%) with ESRD+D, were identified from the OP of 7,180,205. The proportion of pts with ≥ 1 hospitalization was higher in pts with ESRD or D (2.4%) and with ESRD+D (3.1%) compared with the OP aged ≥ 12 years (0.2%) and pts aged ≥ 65 years (0.6%). Similarly, mortality for both pts with ESRD or D and those with ESRD+D was estimated at 0.5%; higher than the OP (0.05%). Incidence rates per 100 PY for hospitalization and COVID-19 deaths were ≥ 10× higher in both groups versus the OP aged ≥ 12 years, and ≥ 3.5× higher versus pts aged ≥ 65 years (Table 1). Conclusion Pts with IC mount inadequate responses to COVID-19 vaccines. In this study, pts with ESRD and/or receiving dialysis were also at an increased risk with higher rates of severe COVID-19 outcomes compared with the OP, despite vaccination. This risk is particularly elevated for pts with ESRD who are receiving dialysis. As a result, like pts with IC with an inadequate response to vaccines, pts with ESRD or D and ESRD with D may benefit from PrEP in addition to protection from vaccines against severe COVID-19. Disclosures Sabada Dube, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee Yi Lu, PhD, Evidera: Employee Richard McNulty, MD, AstraZeneca: Employee Sophie Graham, MSc, Evidera: Employee Sofie Arnetorp, MS, AstraZeneca: Employee Nahila Justo, PhD, MBA, Evidera: Employee|Karolinska Institute: Employee Renata Yokota, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee Kathryn Evans, MPH, Evidera: Employee Sudhir Venkatesan, MPH, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee Mark Yates, PhD, Evidera: Employee Sylvia Taylor, PhD, MPH, MBA, AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Jennifer Quint, PhD, AstraZeneca: Grant/Research Support|Evidera: Grant/Research Support|GlaxoSmithKline: Grant/Research Support|Insmed: Grant/Research Support Rachael A. Evans, PhD FRCP, AstraZeneca: Advisor/Consultant|Boehringer: Advisor/Consultant|Evidera: Advisor/Consultant

Comparing a Data Entry Tool to Provider Insights Alone for Assessment of COVID-19 Hospitalization Risk: Pilot Matched Cohort Comparison Study.

In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, necessitating an understanding of factors influencing severe disease outcomes. High COVID-19 hospitalization rates underscore the need for robust risk prediction tools to determine estimated risk for future hospitalization for outpatients with COVID-19. We introduced the "COVID-19 Risk Tier Assessment Tool" (CRTAT), designed to enhance clinical decision-making for outpatients. We investigated whether CRTAT offers more accurate risk tier assignments (RTAs) than medical provider insights alone. We assessed COVID-19-positive patients enrolled at Emory Healthcare's Virtual Outpatient Management Clinic (VOMC)-a telemedicine monitoring program, from May 27 through August 24, 2020-who were not hospitalized at the time of enrollment. The primary analysis included patients from this program, who were later hospitalized due to COVID-19. We retroactively formed an age-, gender-, and risk factor-matched group of nonhospitalized patients for comparison. Data extracted from clinical notes were entered into CRTAT. We used descriptive statistics to compare RTAs reported by algorithm-trained health care providers and those produced by CRTAT. Our patients were primarily younger than 60 years (67% hospitalized and 71% nonhospitalized). Moderate risk factors were prevalent (hospitalized group: 1 among 11, 52% patients; 2 among 2, 10% patients; and ≥3 among 4, 19% patients; nonhospitalized group: 1 among 11, 52% patients, 2 among 5, 24% patients, and ≥3 among 4, 19% patients). High risk factors were prevalent in approximately 45% (n=19) of the sample (hospitalized group: 11, 52% patients; nonhospitalized: 8, 38% patients). Approximately 83% (n=35) of the sample reported nonspecific symptoms, and the symptoms were generally mild (hospitalized: 12, 57% patients; nonhospitalized: 14, 67% patients). Most patient visits were seen within the first 1-6 days of their illness (n=19, 45%) with symptoms reported as stable over this period (hospitalized: 7, 70% patients; nonhospitalized: 3, 33% patients). Of 42 matched patients (hospitalized: n=21; nonhospitalized: n=21), 26 had identical RTAs and 16 had discrepancies between VOMC providers and CRTAT. Elements that led to different RTAs were as follows: (1) the provider "missed" comorbidity (n=6), (2) the provider noted comorbidity but undercoded risk (n=10), and (3) the provider miscoded symptom severity and course (n=7). CRTAT, a point-of-care data entry tool, more accurately categorized patients into risk tiers (particularly those hospitalized), underscored by its ability to identify critical factors in patient history and clinical status. Clinical decision-making regarding patient management, resource allocation, and treatment plans could be enhanced by using similar risk assessment data entry tools for other disease states, such as influenza and community-acquired pneumonia. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of telemedicine, enabling remote patient tools such as CRTAT. Future research should explore the long-term impact of outpatient clinical risk assessment tools and their contribution to better patient care.

COVID-19 Hospitalization in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients on Immunosuppressive Therapy

ImportanceSolid organ transplant recipients are at high risk of severe infection with SARS-CoV-2 compared with the general population. However, factors associated with COVID-19–related severity in this population are still insufficiently explored in the literature.ObjectiveTo examine which health conditions and immunosuppressive drugs for preventing graft rejection are associated with the risk of COVID-19–related hospitalization in solid organ transplant recipients.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsUsing the French National Health Data System, this cohort study assessed patients of any age who received transplants between their date of birth and entry into the cohort on February 15, 2020. The cohort was followed up between February 15, 2020, and July 31, 2022.ExposuresImmunosuppressive drugs, including steroids, and health conditions (age, sex, and comorbidities).Main Outcomes and MeasuresThe main outcome was hospitalization for COVID-19, defined by main diagnostic International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes. Factors associated with the outcome were identified with a nonconditional logistic regression. Confounding by indication was controlled using a multivariable model with adjustment for individual confounders. Each transplanted organ was examined separately.ResultsOverall, 60 456 participants (median [IQR] age, 59 [47-67] years; 63.7% male) were included in the study, of whom 41 463 (68.6%) had kidney transplants, 14 464 (23.9%) had liver transplants, 5327 (8.8%) had heart transplants, and 2823 (4.6%) had lung transplants. Among them, 12.7% of kidney transplant recipients, 6.4% of liver transplant recipients, 12.9% of heart transplant recipients, and 18.0% of lung transplant recipients were hospitalized for COVID-19. In kidney transplant recipients, steroids (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.60; 95% CI, 1.49-1.73) and mycophenolic acid (AOR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.25-1.51) were associated with a high risk of hospitalization. In liver transplant recipients, tacrolimus (AOR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.61-0.98) was associated with a decreased risk, and steroids (AOR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.38-1.86) and mycophenolic acid (AOR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.37-1.90) were associated with an increased risk of hospitalizations. In heart transplant recipients, cyclosporine (AOR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.47-0.94) was associated with a decreased risk, and steroids (AOR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.11-1.82), mycophenolic acid (AOR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.02-1.64), sirolimus (AOR, 2.71; 95% CI, 1.20-6.09), and everolimus (AOR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.01-1.51) were associated with an increased risk of hospitalization. Only steroids (AOR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.19-2.48) were associated with a high risk of COVID-19 hospitalization in lung transplant recipients.Conclusions and RelevanceThis study suggests that mycophenolic acid, sirolimus, and steroids are associated with an increased risk of COVID-19–related hospitalization in solid organ transplant recipients. These results should be considered by clinicians treating transplant recipients and may help inform epidemic-related decisions for this population in the future.