Risk Of Death In Patients Research Articles

Stable Stratified Correlation and Linear Negative Correlation Between Serum Albumin and Risk of All-Cause Death in Patients with Ischaemic Stroke

AimsTo assess the correlation between serum albumin and all-cause death in patients with ischaemic stroke.MethodsIn this prospective cohort study, a total of 1000 patients with ischemic stroke were included. Multivariate Cox regression analysis, subgroup analysis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, and restricted cubic spline (RCS) plot were used to assess the association between serum albumin and all-cause death in patients with ischaemic stroke.ResultsA total of 272 patients with ischemic stroke died during a median follow-up of 25 months. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the risk of all-cause death in patients with albumin at T2 (40–43 g/L) and T3 (>43 g/L) was 33.6% and 74.4% lower than that in patients with T1 (<40 g/L), respectively, and the risk of all-cause death decreased by 13.2% for every unit increase in albumin (P < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that the correlation between higher levels of albumin and lower risk of all-cause death was significant in all subgroups (P < 0.05). ROC analysis indicated that albumin could predict all-cause death in both the overall population and different sex groups (P < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier survival analysis revealed that with the extension of follow-up time, the higher the albumin, the slower the survival probability decreased (P < 0.001). RCS also established a linear negative correlation between albumin and the risk of all-cause death (P for nonlinearity = 0.092).ConclusionIn patients with ischemic stroke, there was a stable stratified correlation and linear negative correlation between serum albumin and all-cause death risk.

Myocardial Injury in Patients with Hip Fracture: A HIP ATTACK Randomized Trial Substudy.

Myocardial injury after a hip fracture is common and has a poor prognosis. Patients with a hip fracture and myocardial injury may benefit from accelerated surgery to remove the physiological stress associated with the hip fracture. This study aimed to determine if accelerated surgery is superior to standard care in terms of the 90-day risk of death in patients with a hip fracture who presented with an elevated cardiac biomarker/enzyme measurement at hospital arrival. The HIP fracture Accelerated surgical TreaTment And Care tracK (HIP ATTACK) trial was a randomized controlled trial designed to determine whether accelerated surgery for hip fracture was superior to standard care in reducing death or major complications. This substudy is a post-hoc analysis of 1392 patients (from the original study of 2970 patients) who had a cardiac biomarker/enzyme measurement (>99.9% had a troponin measurement and thus "troponin" is the term used throughout the paper) at hospital arrival. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. The secondary composite outcome included all-cause mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure 90 days after randomization. Three hundred and twenty-two (23%) of the 1392 patients had troponin elevation at hospital arrival. Among the patients with troponin elevation, the median time from hip fracture diagnosis to surgery was 6 hours (interquartile range [IQR] = 5 to 13) in the accelerated surgery group and 29 hours (IQR = 19 to 52) in the standard care group. Patients with troponin elevation had a lower risk of mortality with accelerated surgery compared with standard care (17 [10%] of 163 versus 36 [23%] of 159; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.24 to 0.77]) and a lower risk of the secondary composite outcome (23 [14%] of 163 versus 47 [30%] of 159; HR = 0.43 [95% CI = 0.26 to 0.72]). One in 5 patients with a hip fracture presented with myocardial injury. Accelerated surgery resulted in a lower mortality risk than standard care for these patients; however, these findings need to be confirmed. Therapeutic Level I. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Outcome of treatment modalities for spontaneous esophageal rupture: a meta-analysis and case series.

Current treatment modalities for spontaneous esophageal perforation remain controversial because of their rarity. To describe our institution's experience in managing patients with spontaneous esophageal rupture and conduct a meta-analysis of existing studies to determine the best evidence-based treatment options. We enrolled patients with spontaneous esophageal rupture who underwent their first treatment at our institution. We also identified studies through a systematic search of the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases before April 1, 2024, for inclusion in the meta-analysis. This case series included data from 17 patients with delayed diagnosis who were treated with esophageal stents, with an immediate mortality rate of 5.9%. In addition to the cases from our institution, we obtained 944 patients from 46 studies in the final analysis. The combined immediate mortality rate was 11% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.08-0.15). The combined re-intervention rate was 11% (95% CI: 0.05-0.19). The combined immediate mortality was 6% (95% CI: 0.04-0.09) after primary closure, 14% (95% CI: 0.02-0.32) after T-tube drain repair, 2% (95% CI: 0.00-0.15) after esophagectomy, 8% (95% CI: 0.03-0.15) after stent placement, and 22% (95% CI: 0.03-0.47) after conservative treatment. The subgroup analysis based on the timing of the intervention showed that the immediate mortality rate in patients initiating treatment within 24 h of rupture was 3% (95% CI: 0.01-0.08), whereas that in patients initiating treatment > 24 h later was 12% (95% CI: 0.08-0.18). Outcomes are best after esophagectomy, and primary closure or esophageal stenting is a good option compared with other treatment modalities. Prognosis is related to the timing of intervention, and accurate diagnosis and treatment within 24 h significantly reduces the risk of death in patients. Patients with delayed diagnosis may have a better prognosis with stent placement.

Cardiovascular Autonomic Modulation in Chronic Coronary Syndrome Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

Introduction The risk of sudden death in patients with chronic coronary syndrome (CCS) is increased by unbalanced cardiovascular autonomic function. Since myocardial ischemia appears to be the causeof this condition of autonomic dysregulation, treating this condition should improve and correct the autonomic functions. Improving myocardial perfusion by PCI might have beneficial effects on the recovery of autonomic balance in ischemia-triggered autonomic dysregulation. Objective In the present study, autonomic modulation in patients with CCS was evaluated before and after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using cardiovascular reflex tests. Methods A total of 30CCS patients were recruited from the cardiology outpatient department. The patients were tested withcardiovascular reflex tests (lying to standing, 30:15 ratio, Valsalva ratio, isometric handgrip test, and deep breathing test) before and after PCI. The licensed statistical software SPSS version 21.0 was used to compile and analyse the data. Results Out of 30 patients, parasympathetic reactivity tests conducted post-PCI were significantly higher as compared to pre-PCI patients: (1) lying to standing - 30:15 ratio (1.17± 0.102 versus 1.03± 0.064, p=0.000); (2) Valsalva ratio (1.42±0.276 versus 1.02±0.133, p=0.000), (3) delta heart rate in deep breathing test (17.23± 3.004 bpm versus 7.85± 4.076 bpm, p=0.000), and (4) expiration to inspiration (E:I) ratio (1.25± 0.050 versus 1.11± 0.064, p=0.000. Among sympathetic reactivity tests, lying to standing test for fall in systolic blood pressure was significantly higher in the pre-PCI state than post-PCI (-20.73± 10.29 versus -2.33± 7.67, p=0.000). The rise in DBP of the isometric handgrip test was significantly higher in post-PCI compared to pre-PCI patients (36.73±8.39 mm Hg versus 16.63±8.47 mm Hg, p=0.000). Conclusion Resting autonomic tone as determined by cardiovascular reflex testing reveals an increase in both parasympathetic and sympathetic reactivity following PCI in CCS, according to the findings of this preliminary study. As a result, we propose that noninvasive procedures like cardiovascular reflex tests be used to stratify the likelihood of illness development in the future.

SARS-CoV-2 infection predisposes patients to coinfection with Staphylococcus aureus.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an enormous impact on healthcare across the globe. Patients who were severely infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, sometimes became infected with other pathogens, which is termed coinfection. If the coinfecting pathogen is the bacterium Staphylococcus aureus, there is an increased risk of patient death. We collected S. aureus strains that coinfected patients with SARS-CoV-2 to study the disease outcome caused by the interaction of these two important pathogens. We found that both in patients and in mice, coinfection with an S. aureus strain lacking toxicity resulted in more severe disease during the early phase of infection, compared with infection with either pathogen alone. Thus, SARS-CoV-2 infection can directly increase the severity of S. aureus infection.

Door-to-antibiotic time and mortality in patients with sepsis: Systematic review and meta-analysis

ObjectivesTo evaluate whether the timing of initial antibiotic administration in patients with sepsis in hospital affects mortality. MethodsThis systematic review and meta-analysis included studies from inception up to 19 May 2022. Interventional and observational studies including adult human patients with suspected or confirmed sepsis and reported time of antibiotic administration with mortality were included. Data were extracted by two independent reviewers. Summary estimates were calculated by using random-effects model. The primary outcome was mortality. ResultsWe included 42 studies comprising 190,896 patients with sepsis. Pooled data showed that the OR for patient mortality who received antibiotics ≤1 hr was 0.83 (95 %CI: 0.67 to 1.04) when compared with patients who received antibiotics >1hr. Significant reductions in the risk of death in patients with earlier antibiotic administration were observed in patients ≤3 hrs versus >3 hrs (OR: 0.80, 95 %CI: 0.68 to 0.94) and ≤6 hrs vs 6 hrs (OR: 0.57, 95 %CI: 0.39 to 0.82). ConclusionsOur findings show an improvement in mortality in sepsis patients with early administration of antibiotics at <3 and <6 hrs. Thus, these results suggest that antibiotics should be administered within 3 hrs of sepsis recognition or ED arrival regardless of the presence or absence of shock.

Elective Pelvic Lymph Node Radiation Therapy and the Risk of Death in Patients With Unfavorable-Risk Prostate Cancer: A Postrandomization Analysis.

Although a contemporary randomized clinical trial has led to the use of whole-pelvic radiation therapy (WPRT), long-term data evaluating a potential reduction in mortality are lacking and are addressed in the current study. From 2005 to 2015, 350 men with localized, unfavorable-risk prostate cancer (PC) were randomly assigned to receive androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) and RT plus docetaxel versus ADT and RT. Treatment of the pelvic lymph nodes was at the discretion of the treating physician. Multivariable Cox and Fine and Grays regression analyses were performed to assess whether a significant association existed between radiation treatment volume and all-cause mortality (ACM) and PC-specific mortality (PCSM), respectively, adjusting for known PC prognostic factors and comorbidity. An interaction term between age (categorized by dichotomization at 65 years to enable clinical interpretation and applicability of the results and which approximates the median (66 years [IQR, 61-70]) and radiation treatment volume was included in the analysis. After a median follow-up of 10.20 years (IQR, 7.96-11.41), 89 men died (25.43%); of these, 42 died of PC (47.19%). Of the 350 randomly assigned patients, 88 (25.14%) received WPRT. In men younger than 65 years, WPRT was associated with a significantly lower ACM risk (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.33 [95% CI, 0.11 to 0.97]; P = .04) and lower PCSM risk (AHR, 0.17 [95% CI, 0.02 to 1.35]; P = .09) after adjusting for covariates, whereas this was not the case for men 65 years or older. WPRT has the potential to reduce mortality in younger men with unfavorable-risk PC.

Optimizing Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Elderly Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Nomogram Approach Using the Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index Score.

To study the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) scale, which is a comprehensive quantification of multimorbidity coexistence, for the assessment of the risk of acute myocardial infarction death in elderly people. A total of 502 older patients with acute myocardial infarction were studied at Qilu Hospital from September 2017 to March 2022. They were categorized on the basis of ACCI into low (≤5), intermediate (6, 7), and high (≥8) risk groups. Hospitalization duration was observed, with death as the end point. least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to screen variables, 10-fold cross-validation was performed to validate the screened variables, a Cox regression nomogram predicting the risk of patient death was prepared, hazard ratio with 95% CI was calculated, a nomogram calibration curve was constructed, and a receiver operating characteristic curve, decision curve analysis, and a clinical impact curve were established. From 62 potential factors in a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, 12 were selected via 10-fold cross-validation. Retain variables with significant statistical differences in the Cox regression. A nomogram of the risk of death from acute infarction was constructed, and risk factors included ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation, atrial fibrillation, nicorandil, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, β blockers, and ACCI score, carbon dioxide combining power, and blood calcium concentration. The ACCI score effectively assesses multimorbidity in the older patients. As ACCI rises, the death risk from acute myocardial infarction grows. The study's nomogram is valid and clinically applicable.

Interpretable machine learning for the prediction of death risk in patients with acute diquat poisoning

The aim of this study was to develop and validate predictive models for assessing the risk of death in patients with acute diquat (DQ) poisoning using innovative machine learning techniques. Additionally, predictive models were evaluated through the application of SHapley Additive ExPlanations (SHAP). A total of 201 consecutive patients from the emergency departments of the First Hospital and Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University admitted for deliberate oral intake of DQ from February 2018 to August 2023 were analysed. The initial clinical data of the patients with acute DQ poisoning were collected. Machine learning methods such as logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), and gradient boosting were applied to build the prediction models. The whole sample was split into a training set and a test set at a ratio of 8:2. The performances of these models were assessed in terms of discrimination, calibration, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). We also used the SHAP interpretation tool to provide an intuitive explanation of the risk of death in patients with DQ poisoning. Logistic regression, random forest, SVM, and gradient boosting models were established, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.91, 0.98, 0.96 and 0.94, respectively. The net benefits were similar across all four models. The four machine learning models can be reliable tools for predicting death risk in patients with acute DQ poisoning. Their combination with SHAP provides explanations for individualized risk prediction, increasing the model transparency.

External validation of a multivariate model for predicting the risk of death in patients with chronic heart failure and an implantable cardioverter – defibrillator

External validation of a multivariate model for predicting the risk of death in patients with chronic heart failure and an implantable cardioverter – defibrillator

The Effect of PET/CT-Derived Parameters on the Prediction of Survival in Lung Cancer Patients

Background: The ability to predict the survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) can provide a basis for individualized treatment and follow-up. Determination of positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) parameters, i.e., maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), mean standardized uptake value (SUVmean), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG), may improve predictions of survival for NSCLC patients. Objectives: To determine the relationship between the PET/CT-derived parameters SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV, and TLG and survival in NSCLC patients. Patients and Methods: Patients with NSCLC diagnosed at our clinic between January 2019 and October 2020 were evaluated retrospectively using data obtained from the electronic database. The study population consisted of 132 patients over 18 years of age who had a PET/CT scan before receiving any treatment for NSCLC. During their initial PET/CT evaluation, SUVmax, SUVmean, MTV, and TLG were calculated. Correlations between the variables were analyzed using Spearman’s correlation test, and the associations of the variables with patient survival were determined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results: The overall 2-year survival rate of the patients was 36.6%. In the univariate analysis, MTV and TLG, but not SUVmax or SUVmean, were significantly associated with survival (P = 0.8, P = 0.003, and P = 0.045, respectively). In the multivariate analysis, MTV was related to a higher risk of death in patients with adenocarcinoma, lymph node involvement, or distant metastasis. By contrast, TLG was associated with a lower risk of death in patients with adenocarcinoma (ACA) or distant metastasis. Conclusion: Among the parameters obtained in PET/CT studies, SUVmax and SUVmean were not related to the survival of patients with NSCLC. However, MTV was associated with a higher risk of death, while TLG was associated with a lower risk of death in patients with adenocarcinoma or distant metastasis. Further studies with larger samples are needed to validate these results.

Gleason Pattern 5 May Be a Prognostic Factor in Radium-223 Treatment.

Radium-223 treatment reduces the risk of death in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). This study analyzed the prognostic factors in patients treated with radium-223 dichloride. Patients who received radium-223 dichloride were retrospectively analyzed. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) decline rates were analyzed. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves, and prognostic factors for OS were assessed using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Fifty-six patients were included in the study. The five-year OS rate in patients after diagnosis of CRPC was 62.2% [95% confidence interval (CI)=27.55-112.45], while the five-year OS rate in patients at the initiation of radium-223 treatment was 21.3% (95%CI=17.20-36.79). Six patients (11.1%) had a >50% PSA decline rate, and 10 (17.9%) had a >50% ALP decline rate. Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that PSA levels at the initiation of radium-223 treatment [hazard ratio (HR)=1.00; 95%CI=1.00-1.00; p=0.0054] and Gleason Pattern (GP) 5 (HR=5.42; 95%CI=1.08-27.27; p=0.0400) were associated with OS. Patients with GP 5 had a significantly poorer prognosis compared with patients with a GP ≤4. Early administration of radium-223 as a first- or second-line treatment was not associated with OS compared with late administration of radium-223 as a third-line or later treatment. GP 5 and high PSA levels at radium-223 initiation were associated with worse OS. Radium-223 as first- or second-line treatment was not associated with OS. Therefore, a treatment strategy for CRPC based on GP 5 is needed.

Fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio (FAR) is the best biomarker for the overall survival of patients with non-small-cell lung cancer.

The inflammatory response and the nutritional status are associated with overall survival (OS) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but it is unclear which biomarkers are better suited to predict prognosis. This study sought to determine which of the commonly existing inflammatory and nutritional indicators best predicted the OS. This study included 15 compound indicators based on inflammation or nutrition, with cutoff points obtained through the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk models were used to evaluate the relationship between these predictors and OS. Kaplan-Meier curves were used for survival analysis, and log-rank tests were used to compare differences between groups. The C-index was calculated to evaluate the predictive ability of the different indicators. The study included 899 patients with NSCLC. In the univariate analysis, all 15 measures were significantly associated with the OS of patients (all p < 0.05). The results of the C-index analysis showed that the fibrinogen-to-albumin ratio (FAR), the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), and the albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) were the three indices with the best predictive performance. Among them, FAR (C-index = 0.639) had the best predictive power for OS in patients with NSCLC. In the different subgroups, FAR had the highest C-index in male, non-smoking, adenocarcinoma, and stage II patients. The C-index of the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in female patients was the highest. SII was the highest in smokers, in those aged <65 and ≥65 years, and in stage III patients. The C-index of AAPR was the highest in non-adenocarcinomas. The C-index of the pan-immune-inflammation value (PIV) was the highest in stage I patients. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, among FAR, SII, and AAPR, only FAR was an independent predictor of OS in patients with NSCLC. A high FAR was associated with a higher risk of death in patients with NSCLC (HR = 1.601, 95% CI = 1.028-2.495). In order to further evaluate the potential prognostic value of FAR, SII, and AAPR in patients with different stages, Cox regression analysis was performed for those with stage I-II and stage III NSCLC. The results showed that FAR was an independent prognostic factor for OS in patients with stage I-II NSCLC. For all patients with NSCLC, the prognostic power of FAR was superior to that of other inflammatory and nutritional indicators.

Waiting list mortality and 5-year transplant survival benefit of patients with MASLD: An Italian liver transplant registry study

BackgroundInternational consensus has recently introduced a new definition of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD). We sought to analyse epidemiological trends, prognostic features, and transplant survival benefits of MASLD and non-MASLD patients waiting for liver transplantation (LT) in Italy. Materials and methodsUtilising the Italian Liver Transplant Registry database, we analysed data from adult patients listed for primary LT due to end-stage chronic liver disease between January 2012 and December 2022. Independent multivariable waiting lists and post-transplant survival models were developed for patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A Monte Carlo simulation was employed to create 5-year transplant benefit distributions based on the presence of MASLD, HCC, and MELD-sodium values. ResultsA total sample of 1,941 MASLD and 11,201 non-MASLD was considered. A significant increase in the prevalence of MASLD as an indication for liver transplantation was observed from 2012 to 2022, both for HCC (from 17.7 to 30%) and non-HCC (from 9.5 to 11.8%) cohorts. Projections suggest that, as early as next year, MASLD will overcome HCV as the second most common indication for transplantation after alcoholic liver disease in Italy. According to univariate and multivariate analyses, MASLD was not an independent predictive factor for patient survival after transplantation. However, it increased the risk of death for patients on the waiting list without HCC (hazard ratio 1.62, p <0.001). At the same MELD-sodium, the 5-year transplant benefit was higher in patients with non-HCC MASLD, followed by patients with HCC, while it was lower in non-HCC patients without MASLD. ConclusionsNon-HCC MASLD patients had an increased waitlist mortality and 5-year transplant survival benefit compared to other candidates.

The Profile of Self-Harm and Suicide in Iran Considering Gender Differences: A Multicenter Study Affiliated with the National Trauma Registry of Iran.

Objective: The main objective of this study was to determine various characteristics and outcomes of self-harm and suicide in men and women with data obtained from the National Trauma Registry of Iran (NTRI). Method : This retrospective multicenter study using data from the NTRI included all patients who went to the emergency department (ED) due to self-harm and suicide, considering the NTRI's specific inclusion criteria, from September 2016 to January 2023. We evaluated patients regarding demographics and clinical characteristics, various outcomes, and factors influencing in-hospital death. Statistical analyses were conducted using the STATA software version 15.0. The chi-square test was used to compare the distribution of variables between men and women. Also, the logistic regression models were applied to assess the predictors of in-hospital death. Results: Self-harm and suicide cases were gathered from eleven geographically diverse hospitals across the country, and our study included 511 men and 347 women out of 50,661 registered trauma cases. Among them, 443 men (86.7%) and 267 women (76.9%) were between 18 and 49 years old (P < 0.001). Single women constituted 130 (37.3%) of the female cases, while single men were 313 (61.6%) of the male cases (P < 0.001). The three most common methods among our patients were poisoning with 234 (45.8%) of men and 245 (70.6%) of women cases, stab/cut with 208 (40.7%) of men and 54 (15.6%) of women cases, and fall with 16 (3.1%) of men and 26 (7.5%) of women cases (P < 0.001). The risk of death in patients with a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 3 to 8 was 46.22 (95% CI = 18.66 to 114.45) times more than patients with a GCS score of 13 to 15. Conclusion: Data on self-harm and suicide traumatology were gathered from eleven hospitals in Iran. Our findings indicated differences in the distribution of age and marital status between genders. Moreover, both genders used similar methods for self-harm and suicide, and gender did not affect the outcome.

Prediction of risk of in-hospital death in patients with chronic heart failure complicated by lung infections using interpretable machine learning

To predict the risk of in-hospital death in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) complicated by lung infections using interpretable machine learning. The clinical data of 1415 patients diagnosed with CHF complicated by lung infections were obtained from the MIMIC-IV database. According to the pathogen type, the patients were categorized into bacterial pneumonia and non-bacterial pneumonia groups, and their risks of in-hospital death were compared using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Univariate analysis and LASSO regression were used to select the features for constructing LR, AdaBoost, XGBoost, and LightGBM models, and their performance was compared in terms of accuracy, precision, F1 value, and AUC. External validation of the models was performed using the data from eICU-CRD database. SHAP algorithm was applied for interpretive analysis of XGBoost model. Among the 4 constructed models, the XGBoost model showed the highest accuracy and F1 value for predicting the risk of in-hospital death in CHF patients with lung infections in the training set. In the external test set, the XGBoost model had an AUC of 0.691 (95% CI: 0.654-0.720) in bacterial pneumonia group and an AUC of 0.725 (95% CI: 0.577-0.782) in non-bacterial pneumonia group, and showed better predictive ability and stability than the other models. The overall performance of the XGBoost model is superior to the other 3 models for predicting the risk of in-hospital death in CHF patients with lung infections. The SHAP algorithm provides a clear interpretation of the model to facilitate decision-making in clinical settings.

Effect of JAK Inhibitors on the Risk of Death in Patients with Moderate to Severe COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

The pathophysiology of COVID-19 involves a signalling pathway based on the Janus kinases (JAKs) and the signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) family of proteins. As such, there has been growing interest in exploring JAK inhibitors as potential therapeutic agents for this disease. To provide a comprehensive summary of the efficacy of JAK inhibitors in the treatment of COVID-19 through a systematic review and meta-analysis. A systematic literature search was conducted in multiple electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) and preprint repositories, without language restrictions, to identify relevant studies published up to December 31, 2023. The primary outcome of interest was all-cause mortality. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the administration of JAK inhibitors in patients with COVID-19 were included. Through the systematic literature search, a total of 20 RCTs meeting the inclusion criteria were identified. A random-effects model was employed to estimate the pooled odds ratio for death with administration of a JAK inhibitor relative to non-administration of such an agent, with 95% confidence interval. Meta-analysis of these trials revealed a significant reduction in mortality among patients with COVID-19 who received JAK inhibitors relative to those who did not receive these agents (pooled odds ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.84). The results of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that JAK inhibitors, specifically baricitinib, may address the urgent need for effective treatments in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic by reducing the risk of death among affected patients. However, further research, including larger-scale RCTs, is needed to establish the efficacy and safety of other JAK inhibitors in the treatment of COVID-19 and to generate more robust evidence regarding their use in this specific patient population.

Continuous vs Intermittent β-Lactam Antibiotic Infusions in Critically Ill Patients With Sepsis

Whether β-lactam antibiotics administered by continuous compared with intermittent infusion reduces the risk of death in patients with sepsis is uncertain. To evaluate whether continuous vs intermittent infusion of a β-lactam antibiotic (piperacillin-tazobactam or meropenem) results in decreased all-cause mortality at 90 days in critically ill patients with sepsis. An international, open-label, randomized clinical trial conducted in 104 intensive care units (ICUs) in Australia, Belgium, France, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Recruitment occurred from March 26, 2018, to January 11, 2023, with follow-up completed on April 12, 2023. Participants were critically ill adults (≥18 years) treated with piperacillin-tazobactam or meropenem for sepsis. Eligible patients were randomized to receive an equivalent 24-hour dose of a β-lactam antibiotic by either continuous (n = 3498) or intermittent (n = 3533) infusion for a clinician-determined duration of treatment or until ICU discharge, whichever occurred first. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 90 days after randomization. Secondary outcomes were clinical cure up to 14 days after randomization; new acquisition, colonization, or infection with a multiresistant organism or Clostridioides difficile infection up to 14 days after randomization; ICU mortality; and in-hospital mortality. Among 7202 randomized participants, 7031 (mean [SD] age, 59 [16] years; 2423 women [35%]) met consent requirements for inclusion in the primary analysis (97.6%). Within 90 days, 864 of 3474 patients (24.9%) assigned to receive continuous infusion had died compared with 939 of 3507 (26.8%) assigned intermittent infusion (absolute difference, -1.9% [95% CI, -4.9% to 1.1%]; odds ratio, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.81 to 1.01]; P = .08). Clinical cure was higher in the continuous vs intermittent infusion group (1930/3467 [55.7%] and 1744/3491 [50.0%], respectively; absolute difference, 5.7% [95% CI, 2.4% to 9.1%]). Other secondary outcomes were not statistically different. The observed difference in 90-day mortality between continuous vs intermittent infusions of β-lactam antibiotics did not meet statistical significance in the primary analysis. However, the confidence interval around the effect estimate includes the possibility of both no important effect and a clinically important benefit in the use of continuous infusions in this group of patients. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03213990.

Statin use is associated with a lower risk of all-cause death in patients with breast cancer treated with anthracycline containing regimens: a global federated health database analysis

Anthracyclines are associated with enhanced oxidative stress responsible for adverse events in patients with breast cancer. However, no study has investigated the potential anti-inflammatory role of statins in counteracting anthracycline toxicity. In this retrospective study utilizing a federated health network (TriNetX), patients with breast cancer (ICD code C50) treated with anthracyclines were categorized into two groups: statin users (for at least 6 months); and statin non-users. The primary outcome was the 5-year risk of all-cause death. Secondary outcomes were the risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, atrial fibrillation, ventricular arrhythmias, heart failure, and pulmonary embolism. Cox-regression analyses were used to produce hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) following 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM). We identified 3,701 statin users (68.8 ± 10.4 years) and 37,185 statin non-users (59.6 ± 12.8 years). After PSM, the 5-year risk of all-cause death was significantly lower in statin users (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.74–0.91) compared to statins non-users. Analyzing the risk for secondary outcomes, only the risk of stroke was significantly increased in statin users (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.01–1.61), while no associations were found for the other cardiovascular events. The risk of all-cause death in statin users was the lowest during the first year after the anthracycline’s initiation. No significant difference was found between lipophilic and hydrophilic statins. In patients with breast cancer treated with anthracyclines, statin use is associated with a reduced risk of all-cause death. Prospective studies are needed to investigate the potential beneficial effect of statin initiation in cancer patients without other indications.

Interpretability-based machine learning for predicting the risk of death from pulmonary inflammation in Chinese intensive care unit patients.

The objective of this research was to create a machine learning predictive model that could be easily interpreted in order to precisely determine the risk of premature death in patients receiving intensive care after pulmonary inflammation. In this study, information from the China intensive care units (ICU) Open Source database was used to examine data from 2790 patients who had infections between January 2019 and December 2020. A 7:3 ratio was used to randomly assign the whole patient population to training and validation groups. This study used six machine learning techniques: logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting tree, extreme gradient boosting tree (XGBoost), multilayer perceptron, and K-nearest neighbor. A cross-validation grid search method was used to search the parameters in each model. Eight metrics were used to assess the models' performance: accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, area under the curve (AUC) value, Brier score, Jordon's index, and calibration slope. The machine methods were ranked based on how well they performed in each of these metrics. The best-performing models were selected for interpretation using both the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) interpretable techniques. A subset of the study cohort's patients (120/1668, or 7.19%) died in the hospital following screening for inclusion and exclusion criteria. Using a cross-validated grid search to evaluate the six machine learning techniques, XGBoost showed good discriminative ability, achieving an accuracy score of 0.889 (0.874-0.904), precision score of 0.871 (0.849-0.893), recall score of 0.913 (0.890-0.936), F1 score of 0.891 (0.876-0.906), and AUC of 0.956 (0.939-0.973). Additionally, XGBoost exhibited excellent performance with a Brier score of 0.050, Jordon index of 0.947, and calibration slope of 1.074. It was also possible to create an interactive internet page using the XGBoost model. By identifying patients at higher risk of early mortality, machine learning-based mortality risk prediction models have the potential to significantly improve patient care by directing clinical decision making and enabling early detection of survival and mortality issues in patients with pulmonary inflammation disease.