Crash Risk Research Articles

Evaluating the Crash Risk and Traffic Offenses of Motorized Two-Wheelers: A Study Specific to Food Delivery Riders

Food delivery riders (FDRs) rely on motorized two-wheelers that are innately unstable, resulting in safety risks. FDRs perform several traffic violations because of delivery time restrictions that result in concern for road safety. In this study, the available Motorcycle Rider Behavior Questionnaire (MRBQ) is modified by considering the opinion of focus groups, to study the riding behavior of FDRs using a sample of 431 participants. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a five-factor solution loaded with 31 items. This research emphasizes that the risky behavior of FDRs is influenced by surrounding traffic and the road environment, in addition to their individual riding behavior. The self-reported crash, near crash, and traffic offenses data of FDRs showed a higher variance when compared with the mean (i.e., over-dispersed). Therefore, the relationship between the target variables—crash in past year, near crash in past year, and penalized traffic offenses in past year—and MRBQ factor scores were established using negative binomial regression analysis. Negative binomial regression analysis shows that the surrounding traffic factor has the highest incidence rate ratio, proving it to be the most significant predictor of crash risk for FDRs in addition to their own aberrant riding behavior. Based on this research, the enforcement of road safety policies can be effective in reducing aberrant riding behavior performed by FDRs such as traffic violation. The risky driving behavior of surrounding traffic can be properly dealt with by imposing hefty penalties and strict enforcement measures, and by spreading awareness.

Media pressure, corporate social responsibility, and the risk of share price crash

The investigation employs a compilation of data from 5085 listed entities over the period from 2013 to 2022 to explore the dynamics between media coverage, corporate social responsibility initiatives (CSR), and the risk of stock market crashes. The results suggest that greater media focus can elevate the chances of stock value plummeting, whereas robust CSR dedication tends to mitigate such risks. The extent of overall debt funding plays a significant role as an intermediary in the connection between CSR efforts and the threat of equity market meltdowns. Moreover, the influence of the audit services provided by the Big Four firms greatly alters the correlation between CSR endeavors and the probability of market downturns. Additionally, the influence of CSR on the risk of crashes varies based on the profitability of the company. The study proposes that enhancing CSR execution, maintaining moderate levels of financial leverage, and optimizing approaches to media relations can all contribute to reducing the likelihood of stock market crashes.

Enhancing guidelines for managing cognitively impaired drivers: Insights from Western evidence for Asian adaptation.

The global incidence of dementia is increasing, and cognitively impaired drivers are at a higher risk of crashes compared to healthy drivers. Doctors face challenges in assessing these at-risk drivers, with questionable adherence to existing guidelines. This study aimed to review and compare guidelines for managing cognitively impaired drivers from various countries. A scoping review was conducted to identify relevant guidelines, which were then descriptively compared with Singapore's guideline. Eleven guidelines from 8 countries: US (n=2), Canada (n=2), UK (n=2), Ireland, Belgium, Australia, New Zealand and Singapore were reviewed. All guidelines support driving assessments and conditional licensing in ordinary (i.e. non-professional) drivers with dementia. Canada stands out for not allowing co-piloting and geographical restrictions in conditional licensing practice. Few guidelines provide indemnity for doctors reporting to licensing authorities, and communication about the impact of dementia on car insurance is rarely addressed. Most Western guidelines include evidence-based approaches, provisions for drivers with mild cognitive impairment and early discussions on transitioning from driving. A clinic-based functional screening toolbox and 2 clinical algorithms (1 with and 1 without the Clinical Dementia Rating scale) were identified as having universal applicability. Singapore's guideline, by comparison, is outdated and lacks both developmental rigour and guidance on managing mild cognitive impairment and transitioning drivers out of driving. Comprehensive, evidence-based guidelines from Western countries provide valuable resources that can help Singapore design or update its guideline.

Internal Ties and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms

Drawing on information advantage and executive entrenchment perspectives, this study examines the impact of internal ties between independent directors and non‐CEO executives (hereafter, internal ties) on stock price crashes. Utilizing a dataset covering Chinese listed firms spanning 2005 to 2021, we find that internal ties alleviate information asymmetry between the board and management, reducing future stock price crash risk. This supports the information advantage hypothesis. Further analysis reveals the effect of internal ties on stock price crash risk is more evident in high social trust regions and among non‐state‐owned enterprises (non‐SOEs). Mechanism tests demonstrate that financial opacity and financial reporting conservatism are economic mechanisms through which internal ties affect stock price crashes. Our research sheds new light regarding the significance of internal ties in corporate governance and enriches the literature on internal governance.

Geopolitical risk and energy price crash risk

This paper explores the link between geopolitical risks and energy prices crash risk. Studying energy price crashes is important given the sharp fall in oil prices in 2008 and 2014. The analysis focuses on three energy markets: natural gas, oil, and coal, while it employs two measures: the negative coefficient of skewness and the down-to-up volatility, to construct proxies for crash risks. The period of examination is January 2000 to December 2023, whereas that for coal is January 2010 to December 2023. The study employs a modified version of the smooth transition autoregressive model. The results show that, within the modelling framework, coal and oil crash risks are driven by the cyclical behavior of geopolitical acts, whereas natural gas crash risks by geopolitical threats. Causality tests confirm the prediction that geopolitical tensions cause crash risks in energy markets. The results also confirm that the “Economic Activity Channel” is only valid for energy markets driven by geopolitical threats. Energy market regulators should be concerned about crash risks, given that the energy supply shows cyclical boom and bust cycles in prices and production. Crash risks could also potentially cause a fall in investments required to enhance energy efficiency.

Green governance and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China

This study examines whether and how green governance affects stock price crash risk using a large sample of Chinese listed firms from 2010 to 2021. The results show that stock price crash risk is negatively affected by corporate green governance level. Cross-sectional analyses suggest that the decreasing impact of green governance on crash risk is more pronounced for firms with weak external supervision, high risk-taking degree, fewer female directors, and facing stronger environmental regulation. Moreover, information transparency and corporate reputation are two underlying channels through which green governance impacts crash risk. Our findings also hold after several robustness checks including sample intervals change, and alternative variable measurement, propensity score matching, instrumental variables, and Heckman two-step method.

Co-jumps in the Chinese stock market before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic: A network perspective

This paper investigates co-jumps in the Chinese stock market before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic from a network perspective. The higher co-jump intensity and the tighter co-jump network connections during the pandemic suggest increased volatility and crash risk. Besides, the similarity of closeness centrality between the networks during and after the pandemic indicates a persistent impact of the pandemic on the Chinese stock market. Moreover, the community detection results show that the pandemic refines and distinguishes the network’s community structure. Furthermore, during the pandemic, the correlation between community structure and industry classification is stronger compared to non-pandemic periods.

The impact of ESG distance on mergers and acquisitions

In this study, we utilize the most recent ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) data to calculate the ESG distance between acquiring and target firms, subsequently assessing its impact on merger outcomes. Our analysis suggests that deals with a larger ESG distance are associated with reduced cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) around the deal announcements. We find that, following the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, counterparties with larger ESG distances are less favored by investors. This suggests that the market perceives significant ESG distance as a potential impediment to seamless post-merger integration. Notably, a pronounced acquirer-target ESG distance diminishes the propensity for mergers, especially when target firms with more bargaining power during the negotiation. In the long-term performance of acquiring firms, we discern that ESG disparity reduces firm performance and increases crash risk.

Board diversity and stock price crash risk: exacerbate or mitigate

As China is the largest emerging capital market, stock price crash risk (SPCR) due to corporate governance failures is a frequent phenomenon. The board of directors stands as the cornerstone of corporate governance, wielding a substantial influence on the SPCR. The influence of board diversity (BD) on SPCR remains a topic rife with unanswered questions. To fill this gap, we construct a multidimensional index system to capture BD and examine its impact on the SPCR based on companies listed on the Chinese A-share market from 2010 to 2020. Our findings show that BD mitigates SPCR rather than exacerbates it. The foundational findings remain intact even after addressing issues of endogeneity and executing thorough validity tests. We further identify four mechanisms to lower SPCR through influencing board monitoring, including reducing agency costs, alleviating inefficient investments, improving information disclosure, and appointing diverse executives. Overall, our research underscores the pivotal importance of BD within the capital market and provides new insights into the mitigation mechanisms of the SPCR.

Shades of Green: The Impact of Greenwashing on Stock Price Crash Risk

Using a sample of Chinese firms during 2008-2023, we reveal a positive relationship between firms' greenwashing levels and subsequent stock price crash risk. The two-stage regressions based on the instrumental variable approach and the staggered DiD regressions based on China's low-carbon city pilot programs confirm that the relationship is causal. Mechanism tests suggest that firms resort to greenwashing to mask negative information about their sustainability and managerial opportunism, thereby increasing subsequent stock price crash risk. Heterogeneity analysis reinforces this mechanism, showing that the impact of greenwashing is greater for firms with stronger greenwashing incentives, less transparency, and weaker governance mechanisms.

Climate transition risk, environmental news coverage, and stock price crash risk

Sudden shifts in climate policy, technological innovation, and market preference can negatively impact a firm's asset value, leading to potential climate transition risk. While numerous studies have examined the economic implications of climate transition risk, few have explored its impact on stock price crash risk. This study addresses this gap by introducing a novel quantitative method for assessing climate transition risk and analyzing its effect on stock price crash risk. Our findings indicate a significantly positive relationship between climate transition risk and stock price crash risk. This relationship can be mitigated by environmental news coverage. It is also found that the positive impact of climate transition risk on stock price crash risk is mainly realized through the paths of managers' hoarding of bad news and investors' divergence of opinion. The heterogeneity analysis further suggests that the positive effect of climate transition risk on stock price crash risk is weaker for firms with higher ESG performance, whereas this effect is more pronounced for firms with greater exposure to natural disasters and those operating in regions with stringent environmental regulation. Overall, our study provides novel empirical evidence on the relationship between climate risk and financial stability.

Impact of Actual-Contractual Difference in Audit Hours and Fees on Stock Price Crash Risk

Impact of Actual-Contractual Difference in Audit Hours and Fees on Stock Price Crash Risk

Why do insiders sell stocks after receiving options?

ABSTRACT We investigate corporate insiders’ trading behaviour around option grants and find that they substantially increase their net sales after receiving options. The increase in insider net sales is positively associated with risk metrics such as idiosyncratic volatility and stock price crash risk, but not with proxies for insider opportunism. This suggests that the increase in net sales is likely driven by risk-reduction considerations rather than opportunistic trading based on inside information. Consistent with this view, we find that insider sales following option grants do not precede more negative returns.

Near or far? An investigation into the relationship between spatial proximity to CSRC district offices and stock crash risk

ABSTRACT Our analysis reveals that companies with headquarters in further proximity to China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) district offices are more susceptible to stock crash risk. Furthermore, this relationship is notably stronger for firms whose CEOs lack political connections, are non-state-owned, and are not audited by the Big Four audit firms. Our findings imply that regulatory remoteness plays a crucial role in shaping stock market dynamics and risk.

Leveraging corporate governance characteristics for stock crash risk assessment

Causing considerable losses for individual investors, stock crashes are also potential triggers for wider financial crises. In contrast to existing research that primarily focuses on specific corporate governance characteristics in relation to stock crash risk, in this study, we construct a set of corporate governance attributes and employ machine learning techniques for a comprehensive assessment of stock crash risk. Through empirical analysis in the Chinese stock market, we find that our corporate governance attributes are effective indicators of stock crash risk, yielding statistically significant and economically meaningful crash risk assessment. Additionally, our heterogeneity tests suggest that firms with less concentrated shareholding result in superior assessment accuracy. This observation is consistent with prior findings that increased retail investor participation enhances corporate governance transparency, thereby contributing to better assessment performance. Industry-wise, the performance of crash risk assessment for real estate companies is higher than that for cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors. We speculate that these variations stem from industry-specific factors, such as business logic, operational models, and profit mechanisms. Our results also suggest that characteristics related to shareholder meetings are pivotal in assessing crash risks for manufacturing companies, while board-related features are essential for real estate firms. Overall, this study contributes to current literature by validating the feasibility of employing corporate governance characteristics to assess crash risk and by exploring the economic value of crash risk assessment. Furthermore, we discuss several valuable insights into the Chinese stock market through heterogeneity analysis.

The safety impacts of paved shoulder width in Indian four-lane rural highways

The shoulder width, as a geometric element, plays a crucial role in enhancing highway safety. Research from high-income countries indicates that improving shoulders on highways leads to substantial safety benefits. However, the safety effectiveness of paved shoulders for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) highway contexts has limited evidence. This study evaluated the safety effectiveness of the paved shoulder width on 61 km, four-lane, divided rural intercity highways in India. The first objective was to evaluate highway crash patterns using data from 2016 to 2019. The second objective was to evaluate the safety effectiveness of paved shoulder width using the case-control approach. The findings of this study demonstrate a consistent decline in the likelihood of crashes as the shoulder’s width increases within the range of zero to 2.5 m for the 100 m segment length and zero to 1.7 m for the 500 m segment length. Nevertheless, model estimates indicate an increased crash risk for shoulders wider than 2.5 m. The results also suggested that the odds ratio for paved shoulder widths ranging from no shoulder to 2.5 m is likely to follow the crash modification factor from the highway safety manual. The findings of this study hold significant implications for the design policy of shoulder width on rural highways in LMICs.

Motor vehicle crash risk after cardioverter-defibrillator implantation: a population-based cohort study

BackgroundLimited empirical evidence informs driving restrictions after implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) implantation. We sought to evaluate real-world motor vehicle crash risks after ICD implantation.MethodsWe performed a retrospective cohort study using 22...

Crash risk associated with powered two-wheeler filtering maneuvers in urban mixed and weak-lane-disciplined traffic streams

The paper studies the crash risk associated with the filtering Powered Two-Wheelers (PTWs) using the trajectory data. A methodology is proposed to automatically identify the filtering PTWs from the trajectory data. A state-of-the-art surrogate safety measure, considering both proximity and evasive actions, was used for identifying the PTW conflicts. The results revealed that the side-swipe conflicts, particularly involving larger vehicles, are predominantly observed during filtering maneuvers. However, the results revealed no significant correlation between the accepted lateral gap and relative speed during PTW filtering. These aspects highlight the hazardous driving behavior of PTW riders while engaging in the filtering maneuvers. The side-swipe crash risk during PTW filtering is about three times higher than the rear-end and side-swipe crash risk during non-filtering. The study suggests that improving infrastructure by implementing designated PTW lanes, where feasible, can reduce the interaction of PTWs with larger vehicles, thereby mitigating the risk of severe crashes.

Targeting poverty alleviation and stock price crash risk

This study explores how participation in the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) program impacts the risk of stock price crashes among Chinese listed companies. The analysis demonstrates a significantly positive effect of TPA participation on price crash risk, with the results remaining robust across various tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that firms involved in the TPA campaign engage in higher earnings management, concealing negative information to maintain a positive reputation, which could trigger a price crash when the information is eventually disclosed. Moreover, we find that the effect of the TPA campaign is significantly stronger in companies with less institutional ownership.

Effect of ESG performance on stock price crash risk: evidence from China

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of ESG performance on stock price crash risk using a dataset of Chinese-listed firms in the period 2015 – 2020. Empirical evidence reveals a negative association between ESG performance and stock price crash risk, particularly under high product market competition conditions. Mechanism analysis suggests that ESG performance reduces stock price crash risk by alleviating maturity mismatch and optimizing debt maturity in investment and financing, but only when market competition is intense. These findings align with the resource dependence theory, indicating that strong ESG performance enhances a firm’s ability to acquire resources and mitigate stock price crash risk in highly competitive environments. Consequently, ESG performance not only augments a firm’s competitive advantage but also serves as a risk reduction tool, enabling investors to construct more sustainable investment portfolios.