Contagious Risk Research Articles

Investigating the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Contagious Risk of Financial Distress of the Banking System

Investigating the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Contagious Risk of Financial Distress of the Banking System

Exploring the dynamics of white noise and spatial temporal variations on hearing loss due to mumps virus

The most frequent cause of acquired unilateral deafness in children, genetic disorder, or complexities at the time of birth, neural disorder due to any viral infection which results in loss of hearing across all auditory frequencies. Environmental noise is unavoidable in the spread mumps virus in the hearing loss. A new dynamic model of hearing loss is created to investigate the impact of noise on the growth mumps virus by using Fourier transform technique. Epidemiology research shows that spatial variability might increase the mumps virus's contagious risk; as a result, it is important to prevent the virus's spread. The proposed system's threshold value, which can be used to regulate the changing aspects of the mumps virus threshold value, is established. If the threshold value is less than one, there is only one endemic equilibrium, and the infection is homogenously persistent. If the threshold value is more than one, there is at least one endemic equilibrium. The impact of diffusion on the system can helps us to study and work towards the control measures to reduce the infection rate, intensity and spreadness and at the same time control measures and better treatment to increase the recovery rate.

Contagious Transmission in a Swedish National Sample of Alcohol Use Disorders as a Function of Geographical Proximity Among Siblings and Propinquity-of-Rearing Defined Acquaintances.

The purpose of this study was to determine whether alcohol use disorder (AUD) can be transmitted contagiously in siblings and likely acquaintances growing up close to one another (Propinquity-of-Rearing Defined Acquaintances [PRDAs]). PRDAs were pairs of same-age subjects growing up within 1 km of each other and sharing the same school class, where one of whom (PRDA1) was first registered for AUD at age 15 or older. Using adult residential location, we predicted proximity-dependent risk for an AUD first registration in a second PRDA within 3 years of PRDA1's registration. In 150,195 informative siblings, cohabitation status (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.08, 1.37]), but not proximity, predicted risk for AUD onset. In 114,375 informative PRDA pairs, a log model fit best, predicting lower risk the greater the distance (HR = 0.88, 95% CI [0.84, 0.92]) with risks for AUD at 10, 50, and 100 km from affected PRDA1 cases equaling, respectively: 0.73 [0.66, 0.82], 0.60 [0.51, 0.72], and 0.55 [0.45, 0.68]. Within PRDA acquaintanceships, results resembled those found among PRDA pairs. The proximity-dependent contagious risk for AUD among PRDA pairs was attenuated by increasing age, lower genetic risk, and higher educational attainment. Cohabitation but not distance predicted transmission of AUD between siblings. However, contagious transmission of AUD among acquaintances growing up and attending school together was present and attenuated by increasing distance in adulthood. The impact of adult proximity on transmission was moderated by age, educational attainment, and genetic risk for AUD. Our results provide support for the validity of contagion models for AUD.

The hygienic aspects in the management of strangles

SummaryStreptococcus equi subsp. equi (S. equi) is a frequently encountered pathogen in equine practice. S. equi causes infection of the upper airways of horses, a condition known as strangles. Strangles is a highly contagious disease and may be economically devastating as well. Difficulties in the eradication of the disease using vaccines and medical treatments make hygienic measures crucial in order to limit transmission of the pathogen during outbreaks. This review aims to elucidate the challenges in handling an outbreak of strangles as well as develop a basic plan on how such an outbreak is handled in a hygienically optimal fashion. The results of this review suggest a longer environmental survival time of S. equi than previously assumed and support the importance of modification of surfaces for proper disinfection with appropriate disinfectants. Furthermore, the efficiency of using a colour‐coding system in dividing healthy, exposed and clinically affected horses is discussed. Individual temperature monitoring twice daily is recommended for the identification of diseased horses before they pose a contagious risk. Additionally, changing clothes between visiting different stable units is likewise recommended, to minimise transmission of disease. In conclusion, veterinarians, personnel and horse owners at equestrian centres need to be aware of the importance of isolation, monitoring and dividing the site into zones according to the risk of infection. Finally, it can be concluded that regardless of size, practical biosecurity measures can be implemented within all equine facilities.

Measuring Bank Systemic Risk in China: A Network Model Analysis

Correlation networks and risk spillovers within financial institutions contribute to the generation and dissemination of systemic risk. In this paper, a risk correlation network is constructed among Chinese banks employing the maximum entropy method, which simulates the individual risks of banks in the presence of exogenous shocks, the contagious risks, and total systemic risk through the effect of network spillovers, and analyzes its influencing factors. The results show that there is an increasingly rising trend in the overall systemic risk of China’s banking industry, and that the value of systemic risk is relatively large. From the perspective of the composition of banking systemic risk, individual risk accounts for a large proportion, about 70%, which is the main source of banking systemic risk, among which China’s state-owned commercial banks are the largest source. The contagious risk of banks accounts for about 30%. Furthermore, the contagious risk contribution of various banks is basically negatively correlated with their scale. The smallest urban commercial bank in the banking industry contributes at least 50% of the contagion risk, while the state-owned commercial bank, which accounts for about 40% of the total assets of the banking industry, only contributes less than 30% of the contagion risk.

Immediately sequential bilateral cataract surgery importance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cataract surgery is one of the most frequently performed types of surgery in the world. Most patients suffer from bilateral cataract and while cataract surgery of only one eye is effective in restoring functional vision, second eye surgery leads to further improvements in health-related quality of life, and is cost effective. At present, most patients undergo cataract surgery in both eyes on separate days, referred to as delayed sequential bilateral cataract surgery (DSBCS). An alternative procedure involves operating both eyes on the same day, but as separate procedures, known as immediately sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS). The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness and costs of ISBCS compared to DSBCS. ISBCS is an important topic in ophthalmology, especially during the recent COVID-19 pandemic as it is necessary to decrease the hospital visits in order to prevent the contagious risk of this disease. There are well-documented advantages in terms of reduced costs for patients and health-care systems as well as more rapid visual rehabilitation and neuroadaptation. Based on recent studies, the risk of bilateral simultaneous complications is now recognized to be rare with the advent of intracameral antibiotics and strict protocols in this surgical approach. With the use of more sophisticated optical biometry and the newest generation lens calculation, refractive surprises are rare for normal eyes. A widely recognized protocol from the International Society of Bilateral Cataract Surgeons needs to adhere in order to prevent any further complications and obtaining better outcomes.

COVID-19 as a window of opportunity for cycling: Evidence from the first wave

Across the world, the COVID-19 pandemic has forced people to reconsider their habits in terms of how they work, how they interact with each other, and of their mobility. During lockdowns, mobility was in general significantly reduced. Means of collective transportation were used much less, and people preferred means of individual transport. Evidence from some cities suggests that people turned to cycling as a resilient and reliable option with a small risk of contagiousness. This spike in demand led some governments to respond by opening additional bike lanes, reducing the fees of bike-sharing systems, banning cars on selected streets, or giving monetary incentives for the purchase of new bikes. We analyze the bike traffic in Basel and Zurich, two major Swiss cities. Throughout the pandemic, no specific measure to promote cycling was implemented in any of the two cities; we can thus see latent demand patterns exposed when conditions change. As cycling depends on the season and weather, we incorporate these data and correct the traffic counts hereby. We can identify a distinct change in cycling traffic over the course of the day. During the lockdown period, relatively more traffic is observed in the afternoon, possibly associated with leisure activities. Furthermore, there is a short-term drop in the corrected cycling traffic and a fast recovery, demonstrating cycling as a resilient transport mode. Soon bike traffic reached pre-lockdown levels, but no significant increase could be identified, possibly attributed to the absence of explicit policy measures. We furthermore survey a panel of bike policy experts to identify policy actions that could be taken in Basel and Zurich to increase bike usage. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupts life as we know it, leading people to reconsider their travel choices. Given authorities' desire to increase bike usage, it represents a window of opportunity to test new policy measures, increase bike trips of active cyclists, and attract new cyclists. As long as this window is open, people are susceptible to policy measures to reconsidering past choices. However, if no policy measures are conducted during the pandemic, as in the case study, it is likely that bike usage is not increased in the long run. Authorities are well-advised to take this opportunity to strengthen cycling and to lead to a more resilient, accessible, safe, and sustainable urban transport system.

Co-movement of Banking Stress Across Emerging and Developed Economies: A Dynamic Factor Model and Wavelet Coherence Approach

This study develops a robust banking stability indicator for emerging and advanced economies and examines the linkage of banking stress across economies. We contribute by including interbank borrowings and banking sector volatility to measure contagious risk besides the traditional variables. Second, we use aggregate banking sector data for five countries (China, India, Japan, the UK and the USA) from 1998 to 2015 and employ dynamic factor model to develop the index. Results show higher stress levels in the UK and China, and all economies witness increased stress during the 2007–2009 crises, but the recovery phase varies. Finally, we use wavelet coherence analysis and find evidence of stress transmission from emerging economies to other emerging and advanced economies.

Perception of the Sports Social Environment After the Development and Implementation of an Identification Tool for Contagious Risk Situations in Sports During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

This study details the methodological process for creating a tool for the identification of COVID-19 potential contagion situations in sports and physical education before, during, and after practice and competition. It is a tool that implies an educational and methodological process with all the agents of the sports system. This tool identifies the large number of interactions occurring through sports action and everything that surrounds it in training, competition, and organization. The aim is to prepare contingency protocols based on an exhaustive analysis, risk detection, and proposal of contingency measures trying to reduce the residual risk to a minimum. In the second part, the results of the implementation of this tool in the sports system of Galicia (Spain) are shown. The technicians have changed their perceptions about the coronavirus transmission in sports. They highlight the problem for returning to sports participation for athletes under 18 years in the pandemic context.

Evaluation of taste and smell disorders in pediatric COVID-19 Cases.

Pediatric coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases have a high risk of contagiousness, as they usually progress with asymptomatic or mild respiratory symptoms. Disorder in taste and/or smell has rarely been reported in pediatric cases. In our study, early diagnosis and isolation measures were emphasized by evaluating the clinical, laboratory, and radiological imaging findings of pediatric COVID-19 cases presenting with symptoms of taste and/or smell disorder. Seven cases aged 0-18 years were included in the study. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 polymerase chain reaction test was performed for the seven cases presented with taste and/or smell disorders. Clinical findings, laboratory tests, and radiological imaging of all the cases were evaluated on the day of admission and on the fifth day. Seven (5.7%) of 122 pediatric COVID-19 cases had disorder in taste and/or smell. In two cases, pneumonia findings were detected in thorax computed tomography imaging. It was observed that all the patients fully recovered at the latest on the 21st day. In the cranial diffusion magnetic resonance imaging of a case, diffusion restriction was detected in the corpus callosum splenium. Although less common than adults, children with COVID-19 may also have taste and smell disorders, and this may be accompanied by central nervous system imaging findings.

Bronchoscopy in times of COVID-19 pandemic: An interventional pulmonology unit experience

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute respiratory disease that has rapidly spread to become a global pandemic. Bronchoscopy is clearly a high-risk manoeuvrer, so to continue endoscopic activity safely it was necessary to make many changes. We created different ways to access and exit the endoscopy theatre and reinforced our dressing/undressing regimens as well as equipment cleaning techniques. To prevent aerosol dispersion we used a bag valve mask with an antibacterial-antiviral filter, introducing the flexible bronchoscope orally rather than through the nose. For procedures with increased contagious risk a nasopharyngeal swab was required.From the date of the first case of COVID-19 in our hospital to December 31 2020, we performed 1027 bronchoscopies, in both negative and positive patients. No outbreaks occurred within the staff and no patients are known to have developed COVID-19 after a procedure. Our experience underscores how it is possible to continue endoscopic activity safely.

Flexible Noncontact Sensing for Human–Machine Interaction

From typical electrical appliances to thriving intelligent robots, the exchange of information between humans and machines has mainly relied on the contact sensor medium. However, this kind of contact interaction can cause severe problems, such as inevitable mechanical wear and cross-infection of bacteria or viruses between the users, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, revolutionary noncontact human-machine interaction (HMI) is highly desired in remote online detection and noncontact control systems. In this study, a flexible high-sensitivity humidity sensor and array are presented, fabricated by anchoring multilayer graphene (MG) into electrospun polyamide (PA) 66. The sensor works in noncontact mode for asthma detection, via monitoring the respiration rate in real time, and remote alarm systems and provides touchless interfaces in medicine delivery for bedridden patients. The physical structure of the large specific surface area and the chemical structure of the abundant water-absorbing functional groups of the PA66 nanofiber networks contribute to the high performance synergistically. This work can lead to a new era of noncontact HMI without the risk of contagiousness and provide a general and effective strategy for the development of smart electronics that require noncontact interaction.

A Wide Range of Strategies to Cope with Healthcare Workers' Vaccine Hesitancy in A North-Eastern Italian Region: Are They Enough?

The recent pandemic reminded the world of the high risk of healthcare workers (HCWs) and patient contagiousness along with the healthcare services disruption related to nosocomial outbreaks. This study aims at describing vaccination campaigns within healthcare institutions of a North-Italian Region and comparing their effectiveness in term of vaccination coverage. In December 2019, we surveyed all healthcare institutions of Friuli Venezia Giulia Region throughout an email questionnaire with 15 questions investigating strategies adopted for the vaccination of HCWs against influenza and other vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), along with actions put in place in case of a VPD exposure. We found a strong heterogeneity in VPDs prevention and control policy and practice for HCWs, along with responsibility attribution ranging among different stakeholders. Strategies adopted to promote vaccination included a wide range of methods, but HCWs’ influenza vaccination coverage still ranged from 17.0 to 33.3%. Contact tracing after a VPD exposure did not always include medical residents and students and visitors/caregivers/extra personnel as possible contacts. Even if knowledge and complacency gaps among HCWs could be faced with education activities, more efforts should be done in identifying and implementing effective vaccination strategies, and mandatory vaccination for HCWs could be introduced to achieve host, herd, and healthcare immunity preventing possible hospital outbreaks.

Telemedicine and Inequities in Health Care Access: The Example of Transgender Health.

Due to concerns about the risk of infectious exposures during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the uptake of telemedicine has increased rapidly, aided by increased acceptance by clinicians and patients and a reduction in regulatory and reimbursement hurdles. The increased access to telemedicine may have benefits beyond the reduction in contagious risk, especially for vulnerable populations. By breaking down some of the common barriers to care for vulnerable populations, the broad implementation of telemedicine may help reduce some inequities in health care access, but telemedicine does raise other challenges that need to be considered and addressed. One vulnerable group that can benefit from telemedicine is transgender and gender nonbinary (TGNB) individuals, who have less access to both gender-affirming and general medical care due to the consequences of stigma, discrimination, and marginalization. Telemedicine allows TGNB individuals to access clinical expertise even if it is not available locally, and without the expense of travel and without the concern for exposure to discrimination and mistreatment. However, lack of access to or expertise in navigating the required technology, lack of a safe and confidential space to access care, and an unpredictable regulatory and reimbursement environment remain hurdles for harvesting the full benefits of telemedicine.

Perception of the Sports Social Environment After the Development and Implementation of an Identification Tool for Contagious Risk Situations in Sports During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The present work details the methodological process for creating a tool for the identification of COVID-19 potential contagion situations in sport and physical education before, during, and after practice and competition. It is a tool that implies an educational and methodological process with all the agents of the sports system. This tool identifies the large number of interactions occurring through sports action and everything that surrounds it in training, competition, and its organization. The aim is to prepare contingency protocols based on an exhaustive analysis, risk detection, and proposal of contingency measures trying to reduce the residual risk to a minimum. In a second part, the results of the implementation of this tool in the sports system of Galicia (Spain) are shown revealing the change in perception about the coronavirus transmission in sport of the technicians and the problem for returning to sport for athletes under 18 years.

The effects of COVID-19 on Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation in Turkey in the first month of pandemic.

Objectives The outbreak of novel coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) has affected Turkey very seriously, as well as all around the world. Many urgent and radical measures were taken due to the high contagious risk and mortality rate of the outbreak. It is noteworthy that isolation recommendations and the provision of health services for pandemic have a negative impact on Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation (PMR) services. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 on the PMR services and physiatrists immediately after the first month of pandemic in Turkey.Patients and methods An online survey consisting of 45 items was sent to the members of the Turkish Society of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. The main goal of the survey was to evaluate the changes in the provided service of PMR and conditions of physiatrists one month after the first reported COVID-19 case in Turkey.Results A total of 606 PMR specialists and residents responded to the survey. The mean number of the patients visited the outpatient clinics was 148.2±128.5 per week before the pandemic, it significantly decreased to 23.4±33.1 per week after the first month of the reported first COVID-19 case. Similarly, the mean number of the patients of inpatient service significantly decreased from 21.7±39.3 per week to 2.5±10.0 per week after the first month of the pandemic. Most of the residents (69%) reported that their training was seriously affected due to pandemic. From the economic aspect, 69.2% of the participants who were working at private hospitals reported a decrease in their monthly salary, and 21% of them were sent to an unpaid vacation. A total of 21.9% of private-practice institutions paused their services. During the first month, 46.9% of the participants were assigned to the different services such as COVID-19 inpatient service, emergency or COVID-19 outpatient clinics. According to the Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Health guideline and algorithm, 15.7% of the physicians were in the category of healthcare workers with suspected COVID-19.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic affected seriously both the services and the PMR physicians as early as the first month. This effect is expected to become worse, when the duration of pandemic prolongs. Proper arrangements and measures should be planned to ameliorate the negative effects of the pandemic on the patients and PMR physicians.

Short report - Usefulness of point-of-care ultrasound in pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in children is uncommon compared to adult population. However, some children required hospital and/or PICU admission. The aim of this short communication is to share our experience with Point-of-Care Ultrasound (POCUS) when managing these patients. Remarkably, all cases presented pleural and pericardial effusions, detected by POCUS, despite showing an adequate urinary output and prior to receiving any kind of fluid resuscitation. Effusions have been described as rare among SARS-CoV-2 infection in adult population. By performing portable chest X-Ray they would have gone unnoticed in our patients. Other POCUS findings consisted of all types of consolidations and coalescent B-line patterns. POCUS was also performed in order to optimize PEEP, checking adequate endotracheal intubation positioning (avoiding the risk of contagiousness related to auscultation in this framework), and to assess volemia status, cardiac performance, and brain neuro-monitoring. There was not cross-infection. In pediatric SARS-CoV-19 effusions are frequent but easily unnoticed unless lung and echo POCUS are performed.

Metastatic melanoma treatment with checkpoint inhibitors in the COVID-19 era: experience from an Italian Skin Cancer Unit.

Linked articles: COVID‐19 SPECIAL FORUM. J Eur Acad Dermatol Venereol 2020; 34: e291–e310 .

Research on Dynamic Evolution of Systemic Risk in Chinese Banking System

Systemic risk is not only related to the contagious risk of interbank market risk exposure, but also to the credit risk exposure. At the same time, the dynamic characteristics of banking system also affect the systemic risk. A large number of studies have revealed the contagious risk of interbank market risk exposure, but the systematic risk research that considers these factors at the same time is still rare. Therefore, the present paper constructs dynamically evolving banking systemic risk assessment model under double risk exposures in the same framework that includes two parts: one is the assessment of credit risk; the other is the contagious risk. On the assessment of credit risk, we use Geometric Brownian Motion in physics and Monte Carlo simulation calculation method based on the big data of the stock market. On the assessment of contagious risk, we use the method of Geometric Brownian Motion in physics and minimum density method. Then we use data of 205 Banks and 3,017 listed companies in 18 industries in Chinese to study the dynamic evolution law of the Chinese banking systemic risk. The results show that the evolution characteristics of credit risk of 18 real industries can be divided into 4 types which are stability after decline, increase in fluctuation, decrease in fluctuation, and fluctuation. The systemic risk of Chinese banking system with the double risk exposures gradually increased with the evolution of time, and then stabilized at a certain degree. Among them, the initial increase of contagious risk is fast, and then stable; the credit risk starts small, slowly increases, and eventually stabilizes. The evolution degree of contagious risk is higher than that of credit risk. Large banks have the strongest ability to withstand the impact of double risk exposures, while foreign banks have the weakest.

Financial networks and systemic risk in China's banking system

The paper investigates the contagion effects and systemic risk in China's commercial banks system based on the balance sheet data. First, we quantify contagiousness and vulnerability for China's banking system without considering the detailed topology of interbank networks. Second, we estimate the detailed bilateral exposures matrix of the interbank network to examine the snowball effects of financial contagion. The simulation results from two alternative approaches are consistent. Both suggest that the contagious risk arising from an assumed bank failure is trivial, whereas the amplification effects of the losses due to the financial interlinkage are non-trivial.