Abstract
The paper investigates the contagion effects and systemic risk in China's commercial banks system based on the balance sheet data. First, we quantify contagiousness and vulnerability for China's banking system without considering the detailed topology of interbank networks. Second, we estimate the detailed bilateral exposures matrix of the interbank network to examine the snowball effects of financial contagion. The simulation results from two alternative approaches are consistent. Both suggest that the contagious risk arising from an assumed bank failure is trivial, whereas the amplification effects of the losses due to the financial interlinkage are non-trivial.
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