Risk Of Conflict Research Articles

The Dynamics of Caring for the Education of Internally Displaced School-Age Children: Teaching During a Crisis in the Mayo Tsanaga Department

Objective: The aim of this article is to examine the changes made by stakeholders in the provision of education for internally displaced school-age children during periods of crisis in the Department of Mayo Tsanaga. Method: Data was collected using development anthropology techniques from basic education authorities responsible for the education of displaced school-age children, implementing partners, parents or families of IDPs, pupils and informants likely to provide relevant information on this target group in the department of Mayo Tsanaga. The data was collected during the writing of our PhD thesis in Anthropology. Documentary research was also carried out. A total of 20 in-depth interviews were conducted in the locality of Zamai and surrounding villages with a split between urban and rural areas over a period from 15 November 2021 to the present day. Results: It has been shown that controlling the numbers of these displaced persons is a prerequisite for better planning and better integration into the education sector. The different forms of education will not eliminate the risk of conflict between individuals or groups of individuals, but they will enable people to know how to manage them and prevent them from degenerating into armed conflict, civil war or even genocide. Discussion: The particularity of this article is that, as well as being situated between forced displacement, terrorism and formal education, it takes a holistic look at the measures taken by stakeholders to encourage or compel parents to contribute to their children's education despite the hostilities, insecurity and armed conflicts that have arisen. Conclusion: The IDPs who are the subject of this study come from surrounding villages and Districts, with different cultures and differing apprehensions about formal education for their children.

Evaluating the risk of conflict on recent Ebola outbreaks in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Reducing Ebola virus transmission relies on the ability to identify cases and limit contact with infected bodily fluids through biosecurity, safe sex practices, safe burial and vaccination. Armed conflicts can complicate outbreak detection and interventions due to widespread disruption to governments and populations. Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have historically reported the largest and the most recent Ebola virus outbreaks. Understanding if conflict played a role in these outbreaks may help in identifying key risks factors to improve disease control. We used data from a range of publicly available data sources for both Ebola virus cases and conflict events from 2018 to 2021 in Guinea and the DRC. We fitted these data to conditional logistic regression models using the Self-Controlled Case Series methodology to evaluate the magnitude in which conflict increased the risk of reported Ebola virus cases in terms of incidence rate ratio. We re-ran the analysis sub-nationally, by conflict sub-event type and tested any lagged effects. Conflict was significantly associated with an increased risk of reported Ebola virus cases in both the DRC and Guinea in recent outbreaks. The effect was of a similar magnitude at 1.88- and 1.98-times increased risk for the DRC and Guinea, respectively. The greatest effects (often higher than the national values) were found in many conflict prone areas and during protest/riot-related conflict events. Conflict was influential in terms of Ebola virus risk from 1week following the event and remained important by 10weeks. Extra vigilance is needed following protests and riot-related conflict events in terms of Ebola virus transmission. These events are highly disruptive, in terms of access to transportation and healthcare and are often in urban areas with high population densities. Additional public health messaging around these types of conflict events, relating to the risks and clinical symptoms may be helpful in reducing transmission. Future work should aim to further understand and quantify conflict severity and intensity, to evaluate dose-response relationships in terms of disease risk.

Conflict considerations in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s National Adaptation Plans

ABSTRACT Many places affected by violent conflict are also those with the lowest capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change and, therefore, some the most vulnerable. Consequently, it is here where climate change most likely results in social tensions that could escalate into or sustain conflicts. This double burden of compounding conflict and climate risks suggests an urgent need for climate adaptation interventions. However, so far adaptation agendas are often poorly aligned with those reducing conflict risk. Seeking to overcome this gap, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process has been highlighted as an important opportunity to align adaptation and peacebuilding agendas. Based on qualitative analysis of the ten least peaceful countries’ NAPs (submitted by November 2022), and developing a novel analytical framework on climate, conflict and adaptation interactions, the paper examines whether and to what extent countries bring conflict considerations into their NAPs, and account for interactions between climate change, conflict and adaptation. Findings suggest that by and large, conflict considerations are not systematically brought into adaptation planning – an omission that might ultimately prove irresponsible, highly costly and dangerous. The paper concludes with recommendations that countries faced by the double-burden of climate change and fragility, and international actors supporting them in their NAP process, could employ.

Cash and Conflict: Large-Scale Experimental Evidence from Niger

Conflict undermines development, while adverse economic shocks, in turn, can increase conflict risk. Policy interventions such as cash transfers could attenuate conflict risk by raising poor households’ opportunity costs. However, cash transfers may also trigger looting, and expanding government programs may attract attacks to undermine state legitimacy. We study the net effect across these forces based on the large-scale randomization of a government-led cash transfer program and georeferenced conflict events. Cash transfers did not yield greater pacification but—if anything—triggered a short-term increase in conflict events (by 0.63 percentage points), substantially driven by terrorist attacks by foreign rebel groups. (JEL D72, D74, H53, I38, O15, O17)

Navigating the Post-Cold War Disorder: Examining NATO Enlargement and Nuclear Proliferation

The transition from a bipolar to a multipolar world order following the Cold War has profoundly affected international security. This article examines the implications from the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), focusing on NATO's enlargement and nuclear proliferation. Such developments have strained post-Cold War relations and increased global security concerns. The hypothesis suggests that the end of the USSR has significantly impacted international stability. It asserts that NATO's expansion in the Liberal International Order (LIO) has contributed to tensions with the Russian Federation, leading to an adversarial relationship. Nuclear proliferation, exploiting the dissolved bipolar structure, has complicated arms control negotiations and intensified the risk of nuclear conflict. This research paper highlights the West’s failure to recognize Russia's security interests and hegemonic pursuits. Using the framework of the LIO, it examines the principles of cooperation, democracy, and multilateralism, offering a lens to address the complex challenges and work toward a future characterized by security and collaboration. By shedding light on the interplay between nuclear proliferation, NATO's enlargement, and the LIO, it underscores the importance of addressing the security concerns of all nations and fostering a cooperative and reliable future.

The Real Effects of Supply Chain Transparency Regulation: Evidence from Section 1502 of the Dodd–Frank Act

ABSTRACTSection 1502 of the Dodd–Frank Act requires SEC‐registered issuers to conduct supply chain due diligence and submit conflict minerals disclosures (CMDs) that indicate whether their products contain tantalum, tin, tungsten, or gold (3TG) sourced from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) or its neighboring countries (“covered countries”). Consistent with the reputational cost hypothesis, we find that heightened public attention to CMDs increases responsible sourcing. After Section 1502 takes effect, we find higher demand for 3TG products processed in certified smelters, decreased conflicts in covered countries’ mining regions relative to other regions, and reduced sensitivity of conflict risk to conflict minerals’ price spikes. Finally, we find that conflicts decrease in Eastern DRC territories with prevalent 3T (tantalum, tin, and tungsten) mines but increase in territories with prevalent gold mines. Overall, our findings highlight the real effects of enhanced supply chain transparency regulation.

Взаимосвязь ценностных оснований, личностных особенностей и характеристик идентичности иностранных студентов в условиях поликультурной образовательной среды

Integration processes have a positive impact on the integration practices of foreign students in a multicultural community. Reducing the risks of interethnic conflict and intolerance is relevant to the task of studying the con-ditions, factors influencing the formation of multicultural identification, and positive adaptation strategies for foreign students in the host community. The article presents the results of an empirical study of value bases of foreign students’ identity in a multicultural educational environment. The structure, content, and styles of identity are studied on a sample of students from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The personal characteristics of foreign students influencing adaptation and predicting the experience of identity crisis were considered. The reliability of the results obtained was ensured by mathematical and statistical research methods. The internal determina-tion of identity through individual values, group value orientations, adaptive and compensatory abilities aimed at overcoming the identity crisis, motives for affiliation, and acculturation strategies has been proven.

The Role of Marketing in The Dynamics of Real Estate Leasing in Peru: Findings, Challenges and Solutions

Purpose: The main objective of this study is to quantify the impact of marketing strategies on real estate leasing in the Peruvian context. Theoretical framework: An exhaustive review of the academic literature was carried out to gain an in-depth knowledge of the existing paradigms related to real estate marketing and the leasing phenomenon. Design/Methodology/Approach: A quantitative, descriptive-explanatory methodology was chosen. A structured questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of 30 tenants. Results: The data collected evidenced a notable correlation between marketing tactics and lease rates, with a significant p-value (less than 0.05). Also, Spearman's Rho and Kendall's Tau_b correlation coefficients of 0.678 and 0.632, respectively, were found. It was observed that approximately half of the contracts analyzed are not duly registered with SUNARP, and there was a lack of detailed information on the tenant profile in about one third of the real estate developments. Practical and social implications: The lack of registration of contracts generates an environment of legal vulnerability, increasing the risk of legal conflicts between the parties involved. The absence of information on the tenant's profile may hinder the proper selection of tenants. Emphasis is placed on the proposal to establish effective conflict resolution mechanisms and on the imperative need for transparency in fee structures, seeking to strengthen the fiduciary relationship between landlords and tenants. Originality/value: This study provides an innovative view on the impact of marketing strategies in the Peruvian leasing sector. It provides empirical and quantitative evidence on current contractual practices and the presentation of properties in the market. It highlights the urgent need to refine current strategies to consolidate a transparent and reliable leasing market in Peru.

Be a man: A theory of climate change, masculinities and violence

Experts increasingly agree that the impacts of climate change are likely to create new violent conflict risks and exacerbate existing ones. However, the extent of this link and the specific causal pathways are much less clear, and the role of gender in this process is under-examined. This paper theorizes that gendered norms, especially the expectations of how men perform their masculinities, are an intervening variable that might explain some of this relationship. In doing so, it engages with the emerging debate around the extent to which climate change influences the evolution of violent conflict, theorizing with an illustrative observation of the events of the Arab Spring in Tunisia and Syria. I find that there are plausible explanations for climate–conflict links involving gendered expectations of men’s behaviour serving as an intervening variable between climate change and violent conflict and discuss the implications of this for moving away from securitized approaches, future study and peacebuilding work.

The cost of saying no: general practitioners’ gatekeeping role in sickness absence certification

BackgroundGeneral practitioners (GPs) have an important gatekeeping role in the Norwegian sickness insurance system. This role includes limiting access to paid sick leave when this is not justified according to sick leave criteria. 85% of GPs in Norway operate within a fee-for-service system that incentivises short consultations and high service provision. In this qualitative study, we explore how GPs practise the gatekeeping role in sickness absence certification.MethodsQualitative data was collected through six focus group interviews with 33 GPs, working in practices with a minimum of four practising GPs, in different geographical regions across Norway, including both urban and rural areas. Data was analysed using Braune and Clarke’s thematic analysis approach.ResultsOur results indicate that GPs’ sick-listing decisions are largely driven by patient demand and preferences for sick leave. GPs reported that they rarely overrule patient requests for sickness absence, including in cases where such requests conflict with the GPs’ opinion of whether sick leave is justified or benefits the patient. The degree of effort made to limit unjustified or non-beneficial sick leave seems to depend on the GPs’ available time and perceived risk of conflict with the patient. GPs generally expressed dissatisfaction with their role as certifiers of sickness absence.ConclusionOur study suggests that GPs’ decisions about sickness certification is largely driven by patient preferences. The GPs’ gatekeeping function is limited to negotiations about grade and duration of absence spells.

Performance Comparison Between Artificial Neural Network, Recurrent Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory for Prediction of Extreme Climate Change

Extreme climate change is the most common problem in Indonesia. Extreme climate change for months can cause various natural disasters. Therefore, it is necessary to make predictions about climate change that will occur in order to avoid the risk of future conflicts. This study uses the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms by comparing the performance of the three using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) evaluations. The results of this study indicate that RNN is better at predicting temperature in Indonesia compared to ANN and LSTM. This is evidenced by the MAPE value generated by the RNN which is smaller than the ANN and LSTM, which is 1.852 %, the RMSE value is 1,870, and the MSE value is 3,497.

Irrigation strengthens climate resilience: Long-term evidence from Mali using satellites and surveys.

Agriculture in the Sahel and much of sub-Saharan Africa remains to a large extent rainfed. At the same time, climate change is already causing less predictable rainfall patterns in the region, even as rising temperatures increase the amount of water needed for agricultural production. We assess to what extent irrigation can strengthen the climate resilience of farming communities. Our study sample consists of nearly 1,000 distinct locations in Mali in which small-scale, river-based irrigation was introduced over the past two decades, as weather conditions worsened and political upheaval erupted. Using the staggered roll-out of the irrigation and repeated observations over 20 years allows us to compare the pre- and postirrigation outcomes of locations while adjusting for confounding factors. We geospatially link data on irrigation interventions with agricultural conditions measured using satellite imagery and surveys, as well as child nutrition and health outcomes and conflict event data. Using a two-way fixed effects model to quasi-experimentally estimate counterfactual outcomes, we find that the introduction of irrigation led to substantial increases in agricultural production on supported fields, with these gains persisting even a decade later. Children in nearby communities are less likely to be stunted or wasted due to the irrigation, and conflict risks decrease in the closest communities. Some of these gains are offset by worsening conditions farther away from the newly installed irrigation. These findings suggest that, even with political conflicts in semi-arid areas already increasing, sustainable irrigation may offer a valuable tool to improve communities' long-term well-being and social cohesion.

Modeling the drivers of large herbivore distribution in human‐dominated southern African savannas

AbstractAfrican savanna ecosystems are home to the world's richest large herbivore (LH) assemblages. However, its landscapes are changing faster than any other region on Earth due to human activities and natural events. Therefore, understanding the factors influencing the distribution of LH in these human‐dominated environments is crucial for decision‐making on wildlife and habitat management. We combined ecological aerial surveys, camera trap, and dung count data to investigate how ecological (habitat types, perennial rivers, and rainfall) and anthropogenic (human settlements and cattle grazing areas) factors influence the distribution of LH species in Limpopo National Park (LNP). We used generalized linear models fitting binary logistic regression models to distinguish 25‐km2 cells occupied (where the species were detected) by elephants (Loxodonta africana), buffalos (Syncerus caffer), zebras (Equus quagga), kudus (Tragelaphus strepsiceros), nyalas (Tragelaphus angasii), and impalas (Aepyceros melampus) from unoccupied regions (where the species were not detected) in the LNP landscape. We found that habitat type and rainfall were the most influential factors shaping the pattern of LH distribution in the LNP, except for elephants, whose prevalence was not associated with rainfall. The prevalence of zebras was positively associated with the proximity to perennial rivers, while kudus avoided these areas. While some species (zebras, kudus, and impalas) tended to avoid settlements, others (elephants, buffalos, and nyala) seemed attracted to settlements. Cattle grazing areas were the worst predictors of the distribution of all study species. Our results disclosed the role of ecological factors for the distribution of LH and showed that anthropogenic disturbances seemed to either (partially) prevent the occurrence of LH or show the potential for human–wildlife conflict risk in the study area. Therefore, the results highlight the need to investigate/quantify the potential human–wildlife conflict risk at finer spatial scales to improve future management.

Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human–elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia

Human-wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability-three key drivers of human-elephant conflict-will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions "regional rivalry" SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions "sustainability" SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.

Transmission of food literacy to youth in Norwegian childcare institutions - a qualitative study.

Youth in childcare institutions may have lower levels of food literacy compared to other youth. Food literacy, indicating the ability to plan and prepare meals from scratch, is associated with consuming healthier diets. The objective of this study was to explore how food literacy is transmitted to youth through involvement and participation in food-related activities in Norwegian childcare institutions. Data were collected through qualitative semi-structured interviews with 13 staff and 8 adolescents (>16 years of age) selected by convenient sampling in childcare institutions (n = 6) in South-East Norway. We found that the institutional context provided both opportunities and limitations for transmitting food literacy. The staff tended to prefer a soft approach to transmitting food literacy due to the youth being perceived as vulnerable and a focus on youth autonomy. The youth showed ambivalent interests in participating in food-related activities and wished for their need to decide how much to be involved to be respected. A firm approach was perceived to increase the risk of conflict. Our findings are best interpreted in light of a childcare institution being at the intersect between the homely and public spheres. There was ambivalence among staff between following institutional guidelines and caring for the different needs of residents. Food was often referred to as symbolizing something else in the relationship between staff and youth, such as care, structure, autonomy, and a normal family life. Initiatives aiming at including food literacy in care relations in childcare institutions are recommended.

When Moral Talk Becomes Profitable

Should businesses engage in moral talk when it becomes profitable? Due to their particular position of visibility, it is reasonable to acknowledge that businesses have specific moral duties. Some might argue that companies ought to help abandon morally repugnant norms by providing examples of alternative behaviors through advertisements. However, the moral talk of businesses might unexpectedly reinforce repugnant norms and increase social tensions in a polarized society. Then, the duty of the companies is not fulfilled when they engage in moral talk. In polarized societies, the positional duty of businesses implies decreasing the risk of social conflict. It is not clear how to do that, yet I argue that if businesses use moral talk with mass marketing strategies, they would strive to shape impartial moral messages aiming to find points of moral convergence among polarized moral positions, which might mitigate social polarization. I call this duty the imperative of doux commerce.

Building bridges to peace: a quantitative evaluation of power-sharing agreements

Abstract Power-sharing agreements are used as a tool to reduce political violence in regions of conflict, but agreements are often followed by violence. This is due to the fact that such agreements are introduced during periods of political violence when a country is inside the conflict trap, which makes it difficult to distinguish the effect of the agreement from the political context that generates persistent political violence. In this study, we match pre-agreement conflict risk to estimate the effects of power-sharing agreements on violence using a difference-in-difference method. The results show that violence falls immediately after an agreement, with the effects strengthening over time. Comprehensive agreements tend to be particularly successful. We show that broader institutional changes that have their nucleus in the agreements are crucial elements explaining these large changes.

Ethnic associations in Katanga (DR Congo): dynamics of alliance and faction formation from a social capital perspective

ABSTRACT The complexity of ethnic associational life in Katanga, Democratic Republic of Congo, resulted from both the existence of associations representing ethnic groups, and alliances between related ethnic associations, and between communities originating from the same province. These organisations competed with one another in a bid to secure economic resources. Ethnic associations are characterised by bonding social capital, reinforcing intra-group solidarity, and employ sometimes autochthony discourses to reinforce their demands. Alliances between ethnic associations are based on bridging ties generating broader solidarities and identities, though these can become associated with the hardening of new boundaries: bridging social capital is thus converted into new forms of bonding social capital that defend common interests. This paper challenges the assumption that bridging social capital lowers the risk of inter-group conflicts. It also shows that combining “bridging” with “linking social capital” nevertheless contribute to mitigating inter-group conflicts.

Insights into vehicle conflicts based on traffic flow dynamics

The utilization of traffic conflict indicators is crucial for assessing traffic safety, especially when the crash data is unavailable. To identify traffic conflicts based on traffic flow characteristics across various traffic states, we propose a framework that utilizes unsupervised learning to automatically establish surrogate safety measures (SSM) thresholds. Different traffic states and corresponding transitions are identified with the three-phase traffic theory using high-resolution trajectory data. Meanwhile, the SSMs are mapped to the corresponding traffic states from the perspectives of time, space, and deceleration. Three models, including k-means, GMM, and Mclust, are investigated and compared to optimize the identification of traffic conflicts. It is observed that Mclust outperforms the others based on the evaluation metrics. According to the results, there is a variation in the distribution of traffic conflicts among different traffic states, wide moving jam (phase J) has the highest conflict risk, followed by synchronous flow (phase S), and free flow (phase F). Meanwhile, the thresholds of traffic conflicts cannot be fully represented by the same value through different traffic states. It reveals that the heterogeneity of thresholds is exhibited across traffic state transitions, which justifies the necessity of dynamic thresholds for traffic conflict analysis.

Trade openness in developing countries and use of the dispute settlement system of the World Trade Organisation

Abstract Trade openness has long been encouraged as the path to economic development, and many countries have embraced international trade. To deal with the risks of trade conflicts and economic disputes, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) provides a forum for negotiating multilateral trade agreements between nations that aim to remove trade barriers. While most members are developing countries, the benefits of the Dispute Settlement System (DSS) adopted by the WTO to settle trade disputes between members raise concerns about its adequacy for settling disputes involving developing countries. In this work, we look at the effects of trade openness on developing countries’ participation as complainants in the WTO DSS. We argue that with more openness of developing countries to external trade, they become less likely to file complaints with the DSS. Using quantitative data, we analyse how trade openness reflects dependence on international trade, dissuading developing countries from using the DSS.