Risk Of Conflict Research Articles

Взаимосвязь ценностных оснований, личностных особенностей и характеристик идентичности иностранных студентов в условиях поликультурной образовательной среды

Integration processes have a positive impact on the integration practices of foreign students in a multicultural community. Reducing the risks of interethnic conflict and intolerance is relevant to the task of studying the con-ditions, factors influencing the formation of multicultural identification, and positive adaptation strategies for foreign students in the host community. The article presents the results of an empirical study of value bases of foreign students’ identity in a multicultural educational environment. The structure, content, and styles of identity are studied on a sample of students from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The personal characteristics of foreign students influencing adaptation and predicting the experience of identity crisis were considered. The reliability of the results obtained was ensured by mathematical and statistical research methods. The internal determina-tion of identity through individual values, group value orientations, adaptive and compensatory abilities aimed at overcoming the identity crisis, motives for affiliation, and acculturation strategies has been proven.

The Role of Marketing in The Dynamics of Real Estate Leasing in Peru: Findings, Challenges and Solutions

Purpose: The main objective of this study is to quantify the impact of marketing strategies on real estate leasing in the Peruvian context. Theoretical framework: An exhaustive review of the academic literature was carried out to gain an in-depth knowledge of the existing paradigms related to real estate marketing and the leasing phenomenon. Design/Methodology/Approach: A quantitative, descriptive-explanatory methodology was chosen. A structured questionnaire was administered to a representative sample of 30 tenants. Results: The data collected evidenced a notable correlation between marketing tactics and lease rates, with a significant p-value (less than 0.05). Also, Spearman's Rho and Kendall's Tau_b correlation coefficients of 0.678 and 0.632, respectively, were found. It was observed that approximately half of the contracts analyzed are not duly registered with SUNARP, and there was a lack of detailed information on the tenant profile in about one third of the real estate developments. Practical and social implications: The lack of registration of contracts generates an environment of legal vulnerability, increasing the risk of legal conflicts between the parties involved. The absence of information on the tenant's profile may hinder the proper selection of tenants. Emphasis is placed on the proposal to establish effective conflict resolution mechanisms and on the imperative need for transparency in fee structures, seeking to strengthen the fiduciary relationship between landlords and tenants. Originality/value: This study provides an innovative view on the impact of marketing strategies in the Peruvian leasing sector. It provides empirical and quantitative evidence on current contractual practices and the presentation of properties in the market. It highlights the urgent need to refine current strategies to consolidate a transparent and reliable leasing market in Peru.

Be a man: A theory of climate change, masculinities and violence

Experts increasingly agree that the impacts of climate change are likely to create new violent conflict risks and exacerbate existing ones. However, the extent of this link and the specific causal pathways are much less clear, and the role of gender in this process is under-examined. This paper theorizes that gendered norms, especially the expectations of how men perform their masculinities, are an intervening variable that might explain some of this relationship. In doing so, it engages with the emerging debate around the extent to which climate change influences the evolution of violent conflict, theorizing with an illustrative observation of the events of the Arab Spring in Tunisia and Syria. I find that there are plausible explanations for climate–conflict links involving gendered expectations of men’s behaviour serving as an intervening variable between climate change and violent conflict and discuss the implications of this for moving away from securitized approaches, future study and peacebuilding work.

The cost of saying no: general practitioners’ gatekeeping role in sickness absence certification

BackgroundGeneral practitioners (GPs) have an important gatekeeping role in the Norwegian sickness insurance system. This role includes limiting access to paid sick leave when this is not justified according to sick leave criteria. 85% of GPs in Norway operate within a fee-for-service system that incentivises short consultations and high service provision. In this qualitative study, we explore how GPs practise the gatekeeping role in sickness absence certification.MethodsQualitative data was collected through six focus group interviews with 33 GPs, working in practices with a minimum of four practising GPs, in different geographical regions across Norway, including both urban and rural areas. Data was analysed using Braune and Clarke’s thematic analysis approach.ResultsOur results indicate that GPs’ sick-listing decisions are largely driven by patient demand and preferences for sick leave. GPs reported that they rarely overrule patient requests for sickness absence, including in cases where such requests conflict with the GPs’ opinion of whether sick leave is justified or benefits the patient. The degree of effort made to limit unjustified or non-beneficial sick leave seems to depend on the GPs’ available time and perceived risk of conflict with the patient. GPs generally expressed dissatisfaction with their role as certifiers of sickness absence.ConclusionOur study suggests that GPs’ decisions about sickness certification is largely driven by patient preferences. The GPs’ gatekeeping function is limited to negotiations about grade and duration of absence spells.

Performance Comparison Between Artificial Neural Network, Recurrent Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory for Prediction of Extreme Climate Change

Extreme climate change is the most common problem in Indonesia. Extreme climate change for months can cause various natural disasters. Therefore, it is necessary to make predictions about climate change that will occur in order to avoid the risk of future conflicts. This study uses the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms by comparing the performance of the three using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) evaluations. The results of this study indicate that RNN is better at predicting temperature in Indonesia compared to ANN and LSTM. This is evidenced by the MAPE value generated by the RNN which is smaller than the ANN and LSTM, which is 1.852 %, the RMSE value is 1,870, and the MSE value is 3,497.

Irrigation strengthens climate resilience: Long-term evidence from Mali using satellites and surveys.

Agriculture in the Sahel and much of sub-Saharan Africa remains to a large extent rainfed. At the same time, climate change is already causing less predictable rainfall patterns in the region, even as rising temperatures increase the amount of water needed for agricultural production. We assess to what extent irrigation can strengthen the climate resilience of farming communities. Our study sample consists of nearly 1,000 distinct locations in Mali in which small-scale, river-based irrigation was introduced over the past two decades, as weather conditions worsened and political upheaval erupted. Using the staggered roll-out of the irrigation and repeated observations over 20 years allows us to compare the pre- and postirrigation outcomes of locations while adjusting for confounding factors. We geospatially link data on irrigation interventions with agricultural conditions measured using satellite imagery and surveys, as well as child nutrition and health outcomes and conflict event data. Using a two-way fixed effects model to quasi-experimentally estimate counterfactual outcomes, we find that the introduction of irrigation led to substantial increases in agricultural production on supported fields, with these gains persisting even a decade later. Children in nearby communities are less likely to be stunted or wasted due to the irrigation, and conflict risks decrease in the closest communities. Some of these gains are offset by worsening conditions farther away from the newly installed irrigation. These findings suggest that, even with political conflicts in semi-arid areas already increasing, sustainable irrigation may offer a valuable tool to improve communities' long-term well-being and social cohesion.

Modeling the drivers of large herbivore distribution in human‐dominated southern African savannas

AbstractAfrican savanna ecosystems are home to the world's richest large herbivore (LH) assemblages. However, its landscapes are changing faster than any other region on Earth due to human activities and natural events. Therefore, understanding the factors influencing the distribution of LH in these human‐dominated environments is crucial for decision‐making on wildlife and habitat management. We combined ecological aerial surveys, camera trap, and dung count data to investigate how ecological (habitat types, perennial rivers, and rainfall) and anthropogenic (human settlements and cattle grazing areas) factors influence the distribution of LH species in Limpopo National Park (LNP). We used generalized linear models fitting binary logistic regression models to distinguish 25‐km2 cells occupied (where the species were detected) by elephants (Loxodonta africana), buffalos (Syncerus caffer), zebras (Equus quagga), kudus (Tragelaphus strepsiceros), nyalas (Tragelaphus angasii), and impalas (Aepyceros melampus) from unoccupied regions (where the species were not detected) in the LNP landscape. We found that habitat type and rainfall were the most influential factors shaping the pattern of LH distribution in the LNP, except for elephants, whose prevalence was not associated with rainfall. The prevalence of zebras was positively associated with the proximity to perennial rivers, while kudus avoided these areas. While some species (zebras, kudus, and impalas) tended to avoid settlements, others (elephants, buffalos, and nyala) seemed attracted to settlements. Cattle grazing areas were the worst predictors of the distribution of all study species. Our results disclosed the role of ecological factors for the distribution of LH and showed that anthropogenic disturbances seemed to either (partially) prevent the occurrence of LH or show the potential for human–wildlife conflict risk in the study area. Therefore, the results highlight the need to investigate/quantify the potential human–wildlife conflict risk at finer spatial scales to improve future management.

Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human–elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia

Human-wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability-three key drivers of human-elephant conflict-will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions "regional rivalry" SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions "sustainability" SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.

Transmission of food literacy to youth in Norwegian childcare institutions - a qualitative study.

Youth in childcare institutions may have lower levels of food literacy compared to other youth. Food literacy, indicating the ability to plan and prepare meals from scratch, is associated with consuming healthier diets. The objective of this study was to explore how food literacy is transmitted to youth through involvement and participation in food-related activities in Norwegian childcare institutions. Data were collected through qualitative semi-structured interviews with 13 staff and 8 adolescents (>16 years of age) selected by convenient sampling in childcare institutions (n = 6) in South-East Norway. We found that the institutional context provided both opportunities and limitations for transmitting food literacy. The staff tended to prefer a soft approach to transmitting food literacy due to the youth being perceived as vulnerable and a focus on youth autonomy. The youth showed ambivalent interests in participating in food-related activities and wished for their need to decide how much to be involved to be respected. A firm approach was perceived to increase the risk of conflict. Our findings are best interpreted in light of a childcare institution being at the intersect between the homely and public spheres. There was ambivalence among staff between following institutional guidelines and caring for the different needs of residents. Food was often referred to as symbolizing something else in the relationship between staff and youth, such as care, structure, autonomy, and a normal family life. Initiatives aiming at including food literacy in care relations in childcare institutions are recommended.

When Moral Talk Becomes Profitable

Should businesses engage in moral talk when it becomes profitable? Due to their particular position of visibility, it is reasonable to acknowledge that businesses have specific moral duties. Some might argue that companies ought to help abandon morally repugnant norms by providing examples of alternative behaviors through advertisements. However, the moral talk of businesses might unexpectedly reinforce repugnant norms and increase social tensions in a polarized society. Then, the duty of the companies is not fulfilled when they engage in moral talk. In polarized societies, the positional duty of businesses implies decreasing the risk of social conflict. It is not clear how to do that, yet I argue that if businesses use moral talk with mass marketing strategies, they would strive to shape impartial moral messages aiming to find points of moral convergence among polarized moral positions, which might mitigate social polarization. I call this duty the imperative of doux commerce.

Building bridges to peace: a quantitative evaluation of power-sharing agreements

Abstract Power-sharing agreements are used as a tool to reduce political violence in regions of conflict, but agreements are often followed by violence. This is due to the fact that such agreements are introduced during periods of political violence when a country is inside the conflict trap, which makes it difficult to distinguish the effect of the agreement from the political context that generates persistent political violence. In this study, we match pre-agreement conflict risk to estimate the effects of power-sharing agreements on violence using a difference-in-difference method. The results show that violence falls immediately after an agreement, with the effects strengthening over time. Comprehensive agreements tend to be particularly successful. We show that broader institutional changes that have their nucleus in the agreements are crucial elements explaining these large changes.

Ethnic associations in Katanga (DR Congo): dynamics of alliance and faction formation from a social capital perspective

ABSTRACT The complexity of ethnic associational life in Katanga, Democratic Republic of Congo, resulted from both the existence of associations representing ethnic groups, and alliances between related ethnic associations, and between communities originating from the same province. These organisations competed with one another in a bid to secure economic resources. Ethnic associations are characterised by bonding social capital, reinforcing intra-group solidarity, and employ sometimes autochthony discourses to reinforce their demands. Alliances between ethnic associations are based on bridging ties generating broader solidarities and identities, though these can become associated with the hardening of new boundaries: bridging social capital is thus converted into new forms of bonding social capital that defend common interests. This paper challenges the assumption that bridging social capital lowers the risk of inter-group conflicts. It also shows that combining “bridging” with “linking social capital” nevertheless contribute to mitigating inter-group conflicts.

Insights into vehicle conflicts based on traffic flow dynamics

The utilization of traffic conflict indicators is crucial for assessing traffic safety, especially when the crash data is unavailable. To identify traffic conflicts based on traffic flow characteristics across various traffic states, we propose a framework that utilizes unsupervised learning to automatically establish surrogate safety measures (SSM) thresholds. Different traffic states and corresponding transitions are identified with the three-phase traffic theory using high-resolution trajectory data. Meanwhile, the SSMs are mapped to the corresponding traffic states from the perspectives of time, space, and deceleration. Three models, including k-means, GMM, and Mclust, are investigated and compared to optimize the identification of traffic conflicts. It is observed that Mclust outperforms the others based on the evaluation metrics. According to the results, there is a variation in the distribution of traffic conflicts among different traffic states, wide moving jam (phase J) has the highest conflict risk, followed by synchronous flow (phase S), and free flow (phase F). Meanwhile, the thresholds of traffic conflicts cannot be fully represented by the same value through different traffic states. It reveals that the heterogeneity of thresholds is exhibited across traffic state transitions, which justifies the necessity of dynamic thresholds for traffic conflict analysis.

Trade openness in developing countries and use of the dispute settlement system of the World Trade Organisation

Abstract Trade openness has long been encouraged as the path to economic development, and many countries have embraced international trade. To deal with the risks of trade conflicts and economic disputes, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) provides a forum for negotiating multilateral trade agreements between nations that aim to remove trade barriers. While most members are developing countries, the benefits of the Dispute Settlement System (DSS) adopted by the WTO to settle trade disputes between members raise concerns about its adequacy for settling disputes involving developing countries. In this work, we look at the effects of trade openness on developing countries’ participation as complainants in the WTO DSS. We argue that with more openness of developing countries to external trade, they become less likely to file complaints with the DSS. Using quantitative data, we analyse how trade openness reflects dependence on international trade, dissuading developing countries from using the DSS.

Identifying priority mitigation areas for human–osprey conflict

AbstractRaptor nests on human‐built structures represent a significant source of conflict, as they can result in bird mortality, fires, or power outages due to falling nest materials or animals connecting with energized conductors. Power companies typically try to mitigate these conflicts to avoid service disruptions. Performing mitigation measures across all potentially problematic power infrastructure is generally not a practical solution given logistical, time, or budgetary constraints. Therefore, there is a need for quantitative, landscape‐scale tools to identify conflict risk and prioritize mitigation. We examined the influence of habitat and transmission infrastructure distribution on the potential risk of osprey (Pandion haliaetus) nesting‐infrastructure conflict in the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) power service area within Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Virginia, USA, using osprey nesting and conflict records from 1990–2020. We modeled risk using a 3‐stage approach, which intersected a nesting habitat suitability model and density of infrastructure to evaluate the potential risk of conflict. Habitat suitability was greater on or near open water and closer to developed areas. Transmission line density was low (0.14 ± 0.29 lines/km2) and heterogenous across the service area with more lines within urban centers and near power facilities. Integrating habitat suitability and transmission infrastructure information revealed that very low and low‐risk areas comprised 99% of the service area. Less than 1% comprised 1,113.7 km2 of moderate and 82.2 km2 of high or very high risk, mostly concentrated along major rivers and lakes, and around urban centers. Risk was more prevalent in the northeastern portion of the service area. This work presents a top‐down approach to mitigating osprey–power infrastructure conflict, which allows for the prioritization of mitigation actions and can facilitate long‐term coexistence with this protected species.

Short-term high temperature may increase the incidence risk of collective conflicts: A case-crossover study in the Greater Middle East

BackgroundViolent conflict is a formidable global challenge, with long-lasting impacts on individual health and society security. There has been compelling evidence that heat can increase aggression intention on the individual level. However, little is known about the short-term relationship between ambient temperature and collective violent conflicts, especially in less developed regions. MethodWe conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) among 247,773 violent conflicts from 29 countries or regions in the Greater Middle East, between 1997 and 2021. Potential modification effects of economic status and climate conditions were explored by stratified analyses. Negative control and sensitivity analyses were also performed to test the robustness of our model. ResultsWe observed significant associations between higher temperature and the onset of five categories of violent conflicts. The effects generally occurred within the first several days after exposure. The incidence risks of battles, violence against civilians, explosions/remote violence, protests and riots were 1.60 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.31–1.95], 1.82 (95 % CI: 1.37–2.42), 1.24 (95 % CI: 1.08–1.41), 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.09–1.24) and 1.54 (95 % CI: 1.22–1.95) when comparing extreme high temperatures to minimum-risk temperatures. The associations were generally more prominent in areas with lower economic levels and associations in regions of the continental climate are also stronger. ConclusionsOur finding reveals novel and concrete evidence that short-term high temperature could increase the risk of multiple forms of violent conflict in the Greater Middle East and provides new insights into the potential short-term mechanisms under the heat-collective violence association.

A Grazer in a Browser's Habitat: Resource Selection of Foraging Cattle in Productive Boreal Forest

In Norway, cattle (Bos taurus) are released to large areas of boreal forest for summer grazing. To determine to what degree this practice challenges timber production and wildlife management, we need a better understanding of basic cattle ecology. What do cattle, typical grazers, feed on in a habitat typically used by browsers? We determined cattle's resource use and selection at three scales: habitat and microhabitat selection when foraging and diet selection. Boreal forest is dominated by grass-poor habitats, and despite their strong selection for grass-rich habitats, cows spent a lot of time in suboptimal habitats, like old bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) spruce (Picea abies) forest. However, they managed to find grass-rich habitat patches within those, selecting for patches with bentgrass (Agrostis spp.). Graminoids, mainly wavy hair-grass (Avenella spp.), tussock grass (Deschampsia), and true sedges (Carex spp.), made up the biggest part of the fecal samples. Woody plants, mainly willow (Salix spp.), Vaccinium spp., pine (Pinus spp.), and birch (Betula spp.), made up 9.4% ± 4.7% of the samples, a value lower than reported for other forest grazing cattle. Cattle avoided woody plants in their diet and selected for graminoids. They preferred deciduous over coniferous species. At these low stocking densities, the cows were grazers in this browser's habitat. Moreover, they selected rather on habitat and patch scale than for individual plants within a given habitat patch, considered typical for a grazer. Their grass-rich diet indicates little overlap with the diet of local wild ungulates, which are mostly browsers. Their aversion of spruce and selection for graminoids and deciduous trees indicates low conflict risk for browsing damages and even a beneficial weeding effect on trees planted for timber production.

The role of institutionalized cooperation in transboundary basins in mitigating conflict potential over hydropower dams

Numerous dams are currently being built, many of them in transboundary basins. This can lead to disagreements and conflicts between riparian states, compromising not only environmental and social sustainability, but also regional stability and peace. Addressing such conflict risks, states have developed legal and governance mechanisms to address the conflict potential around dams, ranging from international water law principles to dam-specific provisions in basin treaties and from basin management plans to environmental impact assessment approaches. This paper assesses whether, how and to what extent such institutionalized governance mechanisms can prevent or mitigate conflict through both a global perspective (based on global datasets on international water treaties and basin organizations) and a case study perspective (conducting an in-depth analysis of three basins the Mekong, Zambezi, and Senegal river basins). It finds that globally there is a shortcoming in institutionalized cooperation mechanisms preventing and mitigating conflict risks over dams, but in those albeit rather few basins where they do exist, they can reduce conflict risks and thus benefit riparian people, ecosystems, and countries. These findings contribute to the broader discourse on the role of international water law and basin organizations in sustainably managing shared water resources and support calls for the strengthening of those.

Food Security in Israel: Challenges and Policies.

This article analyzes Israel's food security in comparison to other developed countries, using multiple indicators divided into four sections: food availability, food affordability, food quality and safety, and natural resources and resilience. Overall, the state of food security in Israel is better than in most countries, but the threats to food security arising from the triple risk of climate change, international conflicts, and disruptions in global supply chains, require better preparation for the future. Israel's population growth and the slowdown in the growth rate of its agricultural production, as well as the short-term political desire to reduce prices, are leading the country to increasingly rely on food imports. Such imports expose Israel to even greater global risks, and require the formulation of a risk-management strategy that will balance local production and imports. The global triple risk to food security is currently exacerbated for Israel by the risk of shortage of labor due to the security situation, making this risk-management strategy even more necessary. This calls for the establishment of a governmental authority to oversee the formulation of a long-term food-security strategy, to break it down into feasible objectives and policy measures, and to supervise their implementation. Most importantly, in order to maintain and perhaps even enhance the productive capacity of the agricultural sector, the government must reinstall trust between farmers and the state by establishing a stable long-term policy environment.

Participatory analysis of water-related conflict risks in complex adaptive systems – the case of the Inner Niger Delta in Mali

ABSTRACT To avoid negative societal implications from water management actions, the complex interrelations between water and conflict need to be understood. Assessment of such links in complex adaptive systems, characterized by various factors which mutually influence each other, is challenging. This paper explores how the use of participatory methods can support the identification of water-related conflict risks in one such complex adaptive system: the Inner Niger Delta in Mali. We find that participatory analysis not only facilitated the identification of systemic risks in a complex adaptive system, but also shapes the perceptions of these interlinkages.