Risk Of Apprehension Research Articles

Immigration policy shocks and infant health

This paper evaluates the effect of positive and negative immigration policy shocks on infant health outcomes in the U.S. I examine changes in mean birth weight and the incidence of low birth weight (LBW) at the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level around two major institutional shocks: The 1986 Immigration Reform Act (IRCA), which favored immigrants, and the increase in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency arrests at the start of 2017 which might have put immigrants at greater risk of apprehension. It uses a triple difference approach, comparing birth outcomes of foreign-born mothers with U.S.-born mothers (relative to mothers living in MSAs with a higher and lower concentration of IRCA applications and an increase in ICE arrests) before and after the two immigration policies. I find that in MSAs that had higher IRCA applications, mean birth weight increased, and the incidence of LBW decreased by 3–6 percent for babies born to foreign-born mothers. By contrast, in MSAs that had higher ICE arrests starting in 2017, mean birth weight decreased, and the incidence of LBW increased by 3–7 percent for babies born to foreign-born mothers. The effect of the increase in ICE arrests was more pronounced among mothers who were born in Latin and Central American countries. Sub-sample analysis shows that the incidence of LBW increased by as much as 12 percent for babies born to foreign-born mothers of Hispanic origin.

Australian daily cannabis users' use of police avoidance strategies and compensatory behaviours to manage the risks of drug driving.

Daily use of cannabis is increasing in Australia, yet there is limited understanding of the driving behaviours within this cohort, including how they perceive and manage the risks of being apprehended for drug driving and involved in a crash after consumption. An online survey was completed by 487 Australians who reported daily cannabis use (30% medically prescribed patients, 58% male). Current drug driving (i.e., driving within 4 h of consuming cannabis each week) was reported by 86% of participants. Future drug driving was anticipated by 92% of the sample. While most participants (93%) disagreed that their risk of crash increased following cannabis use, participants reported that they would drive more carefully (89%), leave greater headway (79%) and/or drive slower (51%) following cannabis consumption. Half of the sample (53%) perceived the risk of apprehension for drug driving to be likely to some extent. Strategies to reduce the likelihood of being detected were used by 25% of participants, and included using Facebook police location sites (16%), driving on back roads (6%) and/or consuming substances to mask the presence of drugs (13%). The regression analysis revealed that individuals who reported more occasions of cannabis use per day, and who perceived that cannabis does not reduce driving ability, reported a greater extent of current drug driving. Interventions and education which aim to challenge this perception that 'cannabis does not reduce driving ability' may prove important for reducing drug driving among the most frequent consumers of cannabis.

Understanding criminal decision-making: links between honesty-humility, perceived risk and negative affect

ABSTRACT The integrative model of criminal choice proposes that cognitive and/or affective appraisals partially mediate the personality-crime relationship. The current study tests the integrated model of criminal choice across three different levels of subjective apprehension risk. Participants made hypothetical criminal choices in response to three vignette scenarios presenting criminal opportunities varying in the implied risk of apprehension. Consistent with the integrated model of criminal choice, when risk of apprehension was not manipulated, cognitive and affective appraisals (perceived risk and negative affect) partially mediated the relationship between personality (honesty-humility) and criminal choice. Higher levels of honesty-humility predicted increased perceived risk and negative affect, which in turn predicted decreased intentions to offend. When risk of apprehension was experimentally increased, personality did not affect either variable. As predicted, in both baseline and increased levels of risk of apprehension, higher levels of honesty-humility, perceived risk, and negative affect were found to significantly predict lower intentions to offend. Additionally, decreased perceived risk predicted reduced negative affect. These findings suggest that the mediating relationship between personality and crime may be dependent on the level of subjective risk of apprehension. Future studies may investigate whether different levels of situational risk moderate the relationship between personality and cognitive/affective appraisals.

What happens when the police go on strike? Analysing how a marked reduction in policing impacts upon homicides in Ceará, Brazil

ABSTRACT This study investigates how an abrupt reduction in policing impacts upon the occurrence of homicides in a violent context in the Global South. The study utilizes a police strike in the Brazilian state of Ceará in summer 2020 as a quasi-natural experiment. Separate SARIMA and Exponential Smoothing models fitted on data on weekly homicide counts from January 2015 to the beginning of the strike are used to generate forecasts of homicides in a virtual counterfactual scenario with no police strikes. Actual homicide counts and forecasts are subsequently compared. The strike led to a statistically significant increase in homicides ranging between 110% and 250%. A difference-in-differences analysis confirms this result. The elasticity of homicides with respect to police presence is tentatively estimated at between -1.5 and -5.0. Even in a violent context, the perception of a higher risk of apprehension induced by police presence acts as a powerful deterrent against homicides.

A study identifying the origins of different types of drink driving events through the lens of deterrence: Is it alcohol abuse or avoiding detection?

BackgroundWhile attempts to identify the mechanisms to effectively deter drink driving remains a central focus for road safety researchers, scant scientific enquiry has simultaneously examined perceptions of apprehension risk in combination with substance abuse. This may be considered a significant oversight given that such constructs may create opposing forces, or alternatively, alcohol abuse and punishment avoidance may create cumulative effects and promote offending behaviours. MethodThis paper reports on an investigation of 718 Queensland motorists' self-reported perceptions of classical and reconceptualised deterrence constructs (as well as alcohol consumption) in order to determine what factors have the greatest effect on promoting drink driving, particularly alcohol consumption or punishment avoidance. The sample completed an online or paper version of the questionnaire. Results“Possible” drink driving events were slightly more common (25.5%) than “acknowledged” drink driving events (16.6%). Future intentions to drink and drive (23.4%) were more common among those who reported an “acknowledged” drink driving event (63.5% reported future intentions to drink drive) than a “possible” drink driving event (47.5%). Sequential binary logistic regression models conducted for each drink driving category revealed that having “risky” drinking behaviour and both direct personal and indirect experience of punishment for a drink driving offence were predictors of “possible” drink driving events. Similarly, “acknowledged” drink driving had the same significant predictors with the addition of increases in age and punishment severity reducing the likelihood of drink driving and direct punishment avoidance having a positive effect. However, and importantly, only direct punishment avoidance and past “possible” and “acknowledged” drink driving events predicted future intentions to offend in the final model, which further reinforces that drink driving is a deliberate decision (rather than stemming primarily from impairment).Practical applications: The findings provide support for increased policing efforts to identify drink drivers.

Sanction risk perceptions, coherence, and deterrence*

AbstractResearch from environmental criminology, policing, and related literatures consistently finds that objective conditions related to risk of apprehension affect crime. The mechanism underlying this relationship is not explicitly tested; instead, perceptual deterrence is assumed. In this analysis we explicitly investigate that mechanism. This test is not straightforward, however, as some research shows that risk perceptions are susceptible to various cognitive biases and framing effects. Thus, we advance a framework of sanction risk perception that combines individual and contextual determinants. Specifically, we investigate whether contextual factors materially influence risk perceptions and in turn intentions to offend after accounting for the influence of individual‐specific determinants. Our data come from an experimental survey on speeding (N = 1,919). Respondents viewed videos from the driver's perspective of a sedan speeding on a highway and provided estimates of sanction risk, safety perceptions, and behavioral intentions. Although sanction risk and safety perceptions for speeding varied widely across respondents, they remained grounded in the objective conditions of the experimental videos. In turn, citizen perceptions of apprehension risk were comparable with risk estimates elicited from state troopers after viewing the same videos. The results suggest deterrence and safety considerations are important contributing factors that help shape intentions to transgress.

The relative effectiveness of punishment severity and risk of apprehension in deterring dishonest behavior: Experimental results from a developing country

The relative effectiveness of punishment severity and risk of apprehension in deterring dishonest behavior: Experimental results from a developing country

On the Measurement of Subjective Apprehension Risk

Do people think about offending risk in verbal or numerical terms? Does the elicitation method affect reported subjective probabilities? Rational choice models require potential outcomes (e.g., benefits/costs) to be weighted by their probability of occurrence. Indeed, the subjective likelihood of being apprehended is the central construct in criminological deterrence theory—the so-called certainty principle. Yet, extant literature has measured the construct inconsistently and with little attention to potential consequences. Using a series of randomized experiments conducted with nationwide samples of American adults (aged 18 and over), this study examines the degree of correspondence between verbal and numeric measures of apprehension risk, assesses the durability of numeric estimates specifically, and attempts to elicit how respondents naturally think about apprehension risk. The findings suggest that laypeople are somewhat inconsistent in their use of both verbal and numeric descriptors of probability, their numeric estimates of probability are unlikely to be precise or durable, and many seem to prefer thinking of risk in verbal terms (compared to numeric terms). Researchers should consider including both verbal and numeric measures of probability and explore alternative measurement strategies, including anchoring vignettes, which have been valuable in standardizing verbal responses in other disciplines.

Prevalence of drink-driving in Thimphu, Bhutan: Targeted surveillance at sentinel sites.

Bhutan has a high incidence of alcohol-related disease. With economic development, motorised transport is proliferating, increasing the potential for traffic injury. We investigated drink-driving in the country's largest urban environment. Working with police, we set up checkpoints at major thoroughfares in Thimphu, on Tuesday, Friday and Saturday nights, from May to July 2017. Police directed cars to testing bays where drivers were breathalysed and interviewed. All 1596 drivers stopped by police were breathalysed, and 212 (13%) tested positive. Blood alcohol of >0.02 g/dL (which we defined as 'probable impairment') was detected in 178 drivers (11%), while 67 (4.2%) exceeded the legal limit of 0.08 g/dL. Probable impairment was more common in men, older drivers, on Tuesdays (versus Fridays or Saturdays) and later at night. Drink-driving is very common at night-time in Bhutan. Routine roadside random breath-testing, and media campaigns emphasising the risk of apprehension and consequent serious financial and social penalties, should be considered to deter drink-driving.

Optimal law enforcement with sophisticated and naïve offenders

Research in criminology has shown that the perceived risk of apprehension often differs substantially from the true level. To incorporate this insight, we extend the standard economic model of law enforcement (Becker, 1968) by considering two types of offenders, sophisticates and naïves. Sophisticates always fully take the actual enforcement effort into account, while naïves do so only when the effort is revealed by the authority. Otherwise, naïves rely on their fixed perceptions. When the share of naïves is high, a welfare-maximizing authority chooses a low enforcement effort, which is over-estimated by the naïves. Otherwise, it chooses a high effort, which is then revealed to all potential offenders. In three empirically relevant extensions, we allow for lower efficacy of the effort due to avoidance activities, endogenous fines, and heterogeneity with respect to naïves’ perceptions.

Praktikeres risikovurderinger: brugen af risikofaktorer i forebyggelsen af ungdomskriminalitet

AbstractSocial work practitioners support vulnerable children and youth who have problems or are at risk of developing problems. Increasingly, politicians and authorities are emphasizing the role of early crime prevention in social work and the role of risk factors in crime prevention.
 However, there has not been a focus on how practitioners actually estimate the risk of a young person being apprehended as a first-time offender. We study practitioners’ risk assessments through three vignettes. The vignettes have been constructed using register- and survey-based research on the association between youth crime and a diversity of risk factors. The vignettes are thereby constructed to allow a comparison between the risk assessments of practitioners and the actual risk as demonstrated by the data. The study utilizes a sample of 312 health visitors, teachers (including nursery school teachers) and social workers.
 The results indicate that practitioners grossly overestimate the risk of apprehension for first-time offences in all three vignettes. The average assessment of the risk is approximately 50 percentage points higher than the actual calculatedrisk. Furthermore, there is a large variation in the risk assessments given by different practitioners. Moreover, practitioners associate terms such as “high risk” with very different probabilities of crime.

Crime, deterrence and punishment revisited

Despite an abundance of empirical evidence on crime spanning over 40 years, there exists no consensus on the impact of the criminal justice system on crime activity. We construct a new panel data set that contains all relevant variables prescribed by economic theory. Our identification strategy allows for a feedback relationship between crime and deterrence variables, and it controls for omitted variables and measurement error. We deviate from the majority of the literature in that we specify a dynamic model, which captures the essential feature of habit formation and persistence in aggregate behaviour. Our results show that the criminal justice system exerts a large influence on crime activity. Increasing the risk of apprehension and conviction is more influential in reducing crime than raising the expected severity of punishment.

Deterring delinquents with information. Evidence from a randomized poster campaign in Bogotá.

In this article, we test whether an isolated information campaign can deter criminals by appealing to their apprehension risk perception. A randomized trial was conducted around 154 high crime housing blocks in Bogotá. With support of the Colombian Police, half of the blocks were exposed to a three month poster campaign reporting the number of “arrests around this street block” and half to a no-treatment control condition. The main outcome measure (total registered crime) and secondary outcome measures (calls to the emergency line for thefts and attacks, and minor wrongdoings) were provided by the Police. Additionally, trust in police, security perception, and police performance perception were measured among residents and workers in the treatment and control areas (N = 616) using a post-treatment survey. Measures were analyzed with linear regression analysis and two-sample t-tests. Over the course of the treatment period, premeditated crime was reduced, while spontaneous crime remained unchanged. Overall levels of crime were not significantly altered. Also, a moderate crime reduction is detectable during the first month of the treatment period. The posters were highly visible (93% of respondents in the treated areas recalled them) and positively received (67% “liked” them). Perceptions of security and police among locals improved, though not significantly. Inherent among residents of Bogotá is a pervasive feeling of impunity and low trust in authorities, making the city a hard test case for an offender-targeted advertising campaign. Initial reductions of crime and overall reductions of premeditated crime are thus noteworthy. These results align with key principles of apprehension risk updating theory.

Legitimacy versus morality: Why do the Chinese obey the law?

This study explored two aspects of the rule of law in China: (1) motivations for compliance with 4 groups of everyday laws and regulations and (2) determinants of the legitimacy of legal authorities. We applied a structural equations model, constructed from Tyler's conceptual process-based self-regulation model with morality added as a motivation, to online questionnaire responses from 1,000 Shanghai drivers. We explored the compliance with four particular groups of laws: public disturbance; conventional traffic laws; illegal downloading; and distracted driving. The results were threefold. First, for all four groups of laws, the perceived morality influenced compliance consistently and more strongly than the perceived legitimacy of the authorities and all other motivations. The influence of perceived legitimacy of authorities was inconsistent across the four groups of laws tested. Second, the influence of perceived severity of punishment was consistent and significant across all four groups of laws, whereas perceived risk of apprehension had no significant impact on compliance. Third, evaluations of procedural fairness, not those concerning the equitable distribution of law enforcement services and effectiveness of law enforcement, were most strongly linked to legitimacy. In addition to showing that China is a law-abiding society governed by morality, these results underscore the importance of examining morality and magnitude of punishment as potential motivations for compliance in addition to legitimacy and certainty of punishment. They also illustrate the necessity to examine different groups of laws separately when studying compliance. Finally, these results challenge the linkage between legitimacy and compliance previously established in the literature. (PsycINFO Database Record

Optimal Law Enforcement with Sophisticated and Naive Offenders

Research in criminology has shown that the perceived risk of apprehension often differs substantially from the true level. To account for this insight, we extend the standard economic model of law enforcement (Becker, 1968) by considering two types of offenders, sophisticates and naives. The former are always fully informed about the enforcement effort, the latter become informed only when the effort is revealed by the authority; otherwise, naives rely on their perceptions. We characterize the optimal enforcement effort and the decision whether to hide or reveal it. The welfare-maximizing authority chooses either a relatively high effort which is then revealed, or it chooses a relatively low effort which remains hidden. The latter policy becomes more favorable, the larger the share of naives in the population and the higher their level of perceived effort. We then analyze three empirically important extensions, thereby allowing for lower efficacy of the enforcement effort due to avoidance activities, endogenous fines, and heterogeneity with respect to naives’ perceptions.

More structural holes, more risk? Network structure and risk perception among marijuana growers

This study examines the relationship between network structure and risk perceptions. We use self-report data on 359 illicit marijuana growers and their personal co-worker networks. Our results show that growers with more structural holes in their co-worker network perceive higher risk of apprehension from law enforcement. We argue that this result is facilitated by two mechanisms: 1) the amount and quality of information available to growers about risks and detection, which uses guidance from Stafford and Warr’s (1993) concept of vicarious deterrence; and, 2) the trust inherent in their network and the growers’ self-awareness of their own network position, which relies on Coleman’s (1988) and Burt’s (2005) ideas of network closure as a protective factor.

Delivery dilemmas: How drug cryptomarket users identify and seek to reduce their risk of detection by law enforcement

BackgroundCryptomarkets represent an important drug market innovation by bringing buyers and sellers of illegal drugs together in a ‘hidden’ yet public online marketplace. We ask: How do cryptomarket drug sellers and buyers perceive the risks of detection and arrest, and attempt to limit them? MethodsWe analyse selected texts produced by vendors operating on the first major drug cryptomarket, Silk Road (N=600) alongside data extracted from the marketplace discussion forum that include buyer perspectives. We apply Fader’s (2016) framework for understanding how drug dealers operating ‘offline’ attempt to reduce the risk of detection and arrest: visibility reduction, charge reduction and risk distribution. ResultsWe characterize drug transactions on cryptomarkets as ‘stretched’ across time, virtual and physical space, and handlers, changing the location and nature of risks faced by cryptomarket users. The key locations of risk of detection and arrest by law enforcement were found in ‘offline’ activities of cryptomarket vendors (packaging and delivery drop-offs) and buyers (receiving deliveries). Strategies in response involved either creating or disrupting routine activities in line with a non-offending identity. Use of encrypted communication was seen as ‘good practice’ but often not employed. ‘Drop shipping’ allowed some Silk Road vendors to sell illegal drugs without the necessity of handling them. ConclusionSilk Road participants neither viewed themselves as immune to, nor passively accepting of, the risk of detection and arrest. Rational choice theorists have viewed offending decisions as constrained by limited access to relevant information. Cryptomarkets as ‘illicit capital’ sharing communities provide expanded and low-cost access to information enabling drug market participants to make more accurate assessments of the risk of apprehension. The abundance of drug market intelligence available to those on both sides of the law may function to speed up innovation in illegal drug markets, as well as necessitate and facilitate the development of law enforcement responses.

Police Response to Domestic Violence: A Case Study of TecSOS Mobile Phone Use in the London Metropolitan Police Service

Police forces are constantly seeking to improve their service to victims of domestic abuse and to facilitate reporting of these offenses. Using a variety of police data, this case study describes the London Metropolitan Police Service's use of TecSOS mobile phone technology in responding to domestic abuse. The case study indicates that the rapid response made possible by TecSOS activations reduces the risk of repeat victimization. It also results in victim protection and empowerment, it increases the risk of apprehension for the offender and it strengthens evidence for prosecution by apprehending perpetrators in action, whether or not in the victim's home. The case study also suggests that TecSOS has potential for wider cost-saving public benefits. Most importantly, it was found that only a small minority of victims ever activated their phones suggesting that these serve as a powerful deterrent to would-be perpetrators. Language: en

Scripting the crime commission process in the illicit online prescription drug trade

This article considers the processes in the illicit online prescription drug trade, namely search-redirection attacks and the operation of unlicensed pharmacies using crime script analysis. Empirical data have been used to describe the salient elements of the online criminal infrastructures and associated monetization paths enabling criminal profitability. This analysis reveals the existence of structural chokepoints: components of online criminal operations being limited in number, and critical for the operations’ profitability. Consequently, interventions targeting such components can reduce the opportunities and incentives to engage in online crime through an increase in criminal operational costs, and in the risk of apprehension.

Where Do Dealers Solicit Customers and Sell Them Drugs? A Micro-Level Multiple Method Study

According to a rational choice theory of crime location choice, offenders commit crimes at locations where the mix of expected rewards and costs is optimal. The present study applied this general theory to a very specific crime—illicit drug dealing in an open air drug market—and tested it in the Red Light District and its neighboring area in downtown Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Data were collected in interviews with 50 dealers of illicit drugs and through systematic observations of the 262 street segments in the study area. It was expected that dealers prefer locations where expected earnings relative to invested time and effort is high and where the risk of apprehension is low. The quantitative findings seem to confirm that dealers go to places where the likelihood of successfully soliciting customers is high, but no evidence is found that they avoid places with informal or formal social control. Qualitative data collected in the same interviews reveal that dealers view social control as a nuisance and risk that can be evaded. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for criminological theory and research methods.