Sanction risk perceptions, coherence, and deterrence*

Timothy C Barnum,Greg Pogarsky,Daniel S Nagin

doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12266

Abstract

AbstractResearch from environmental criminology, policing, and related literatures consistently finds that objective conditions related to risk of apprehension affect crime. The mechanism underlying this relationship is not explicitly tested; instead, perceptual deterrence is assumed. In this analysis we explicitly investigate that mechanism. This test is not straightforward, however, as some research shows that risk perceptions are susceptible to various cognitive biases and framing effects. Thus, we advance a framework of sanction risk perception that combines individual and contextual determinants. Specifically, we investigate whether contextual factors materially influence risk perceptions and in turn intentions to offend after accounting for the influence of individual‐specific determinants. Our data come from an experimental survey on speeding (N = 1,919). Respondents viewed videos from the driver's perspective of a sedan speeding on a highway and provided estimates of sanction risk, safety perceptions, and behavioral intentions. Although sanction risk and safety perceptions for speeding varied widely across respondents, they remained grounded in the objective conditions of the experimental videos. In turn, citizen perceptions of apprehension risk were comparable with risk estimates elicited from state troopers after viewing the same videos. The results suggest deterrence and safety considerations are important contributing factors that help shape intentions to transgress.

Highlights

More than four decades ago, criminologists (Grasmick & Bryjak, 1980; Meier & Johnson, 1977; Tittle, 1977) were in the vanguard of a line of research that builds from the foundational proposition that, at its core, deterrence is a perceptual phenomenon
Research on perceptual deterrence addresses two key questions: 1) Is actual or intended offending behavior affected by perceptions of the risk of punishment and 2) are these “sanction-risk perceptions” grounded in reality? An extensive body of research addressing the first question consistently demonstrates a negative correlation between sanction-risk perceptions and lawbreaking
Findings from environmental criminology and related research suggest that risk perceptions are strongly influenced by situational and contextual features of a criminal opportunity

Summary

Introduction

More than four decades ago, criminologists (Grasmick & Bryjak, 1980; Meier & Johnson, 1977; Tittle, 1977) were in the vanguard of a line of research that builds from the foundational proposition that, at its core, deterrence is a perceptual phenomenon. A prerequisite for perceptions to be grounded in reality is that perceptions reflect and respond to objective conditions and personal experience that influence sanction risk This premise is a central feature of environmental criminology (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1981, 1990, 1982; Jeffery, 1977), opportunity-based theories (Clarke, 1983, 1997), routine activity theory (Clarke & Felson, 1993; Felson, 1987; Groff, 2008; Sherman et al, 1989), and Sampson’s (2013) theory of context. All background measures were captured for the purpose of being included in subsequent multivariate regression analyses

Methods

Results

Conclusion