Probability Of Risk Occurrence Research Articles

Research on International Trade Countermeasures of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises -- Taking Export to Australia as an Example

This paper mainly study the trade status of a typical small and medium manufacturing enterprise in China--ABC Shoes Co. Ltd, and the benefits of doing international business, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the company in carrying out international trade business with SWOT analysis method, selects the target market for the company, lists the various risks that may occur in international trade, puts forward feasible countermeasures and suggestions on how to avoid export trade risks, in order to reduce the probability of risk occurrence and promote the healthy development of enterprises.

Research on Construction Risk Management of Subway Project Based on Bayesian Network

The data on construction safety risk accidents in China in recent years are collected and sorted out. The main risk factors in Xi'anlu station of the Dalian subway phase I project are determined by the expert investigation method. According to the causal relationship among risk factors, the corresponding Bayesian network model is determined. The construction risk occurrence probability of this project can be predicted by using forward causal inference technology based on the Bayesian network, and construction risk can be diagnosed by using reverse inference technology. The results show that the risk probability of the construction safety of this subway project is 0.530. The data shows that the overall risk level of construction safety of this subway project is medium. The key factors that make the Xi'anlu station of the Dalian subway phase I project in a dangerous state are inaccurate construction measurement data, non-detailed construction organization or construction scheme, and unreasonable connection of the operation process.

Fire and explosion analysis of filling station based on fuzzy mathematics and Bayesian network model

In order to explore the basic events and risk occurrence probability of fire and explosion accidents in CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) filling station, a corresponding Bayesian network risk model was established based on the fault tree of filling station. The prior probability was modified by introducing fuzzy mathematics in the process of transforming the fault tree into Bayesian network, and the posterior probability of the basic events of CNG filling station fire and explosion accidents was analyzed and calculated by GeNIe software. Finally, through case analysis, it is found out that the most dangerous factors that lead to the greatest risk of fire and explosion accidents in a filling station are: personnel misoperation, management defects, etc. After verifying the model, it shows that paying attention to the polymorphism of the base events and determining the rationality of the logical relationship between the base events can calculate the more accurate probability distribution of the base events, and at the same time provide reasonable suggestions for the accident prevention of the gas filling station.

APPLIED RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE SYSTEM OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES IN CYBERSPACE

In the paper investigated safety of socio-economic processes in the virtual space. Studied the main trends influence on formation of preventive and adaptive mechanisms for ensuring information and cyber security enterprises. Key trends of the modern business and social environment include: globalization, informatization and individualization of consumer needs; mediatization, territorialization and universalization of social phenomena. Presented an original ensuring security model for the virtual information sphere. In this model was invented a conceptual scheme for identifying the information security system: given the identification sequence and risks assessment in cyberspace by stages; risk identification; a description of the threats it poses; identification of vulnerable market segments; analysis and assessment of the risk occurrence probability level; analysis and assessment of the risk manifestation consequences level; score determination of the general rick level; proposal to eliminate the development environment risks of the study object; net risk identification; risks in cyberspace have been identified and assessed in terms of security and financial flows. Among the dominant risks of the external and internal security environment in the information virtual Ukrainian space the following are highlighted: insufficient system security, processes and technologies, disinformation and information asymmetry; high sensitivity of financial flows to the processes of the implementation of shock macroeconomic phenomena (including almost unsignificant currencies devaluation against the pandemic background) in terms of the safety of financial flows; technical, technological and personal vulnerability growth in the information sphere, due to the increasing cybercrime in terms of the information flow security. Among the mitigation measures and neutralization of the general risk level, was proposed the creation of a single protection system. The single data protection system should be based on: data protection progressive principles, tasks to ensure security from information influences, information infrastructure security, information rights, open access to information, publicity of open information, etc.; organizational and right mechanism of data protection. This mechanism is based on the need to streamline the responsibilities of information marked actors; state control over data manipulation; data manipulation standards development; information systems certification for their processing. Construction of database registers, as well as registration of owners and/or data administrators, third parties to whom the data was transferred for further manipulation; an independent coordination center formation for the state policy implementation in terms of monitoring compliance with data protection requirements, etc.; increasing the financial flow transparency, namely risk-oriented monitoring in digital currency exchanges and licensing of transactions in virtual currencies requires support from the Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering and the Financial Intelligence Unit.

Research and Application of Critical Failure Paths Identification Method for Dam Risk Analysis

Dam is an important part of the national infrastructure, and its safety has been widely concerned. Risk identification of dams plays a significant role in risk assessment and control. Finding out some critical failure paths through adopting timely measures can help reduce the risk occurrence probability effectively. This paper develops an identification method based on the credibility and the interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) methods, namely, consistency and difference-based interval analytic hierarchy process (CDB-IAHP) method, to identify the critical failure paths of dams exactly considering the dynamic cognition degree of decision-makers. Based on the fault tree analysis (FTA) method, the framework and analysis for critical failure paths identification of a gravity dam and an Earth-rockfill dam are conducted and made. The results show that the critical failure paths obtained by the proposed method are in line with the statistical data, and the importance of disaster causing factors has some difference with the traditional method. Additionally, some engineering and nonengineering measures are suggested to reduce the impact of potential failure paths. The applications demonstrate that the proposed method shows good applicability for risk analysis and critical failure path mining of dams.

Study on application of regional ecological risk assessment during the development and utilization of Chu Island

Taking natural disaster risk problems in the uninhabited island ecosystem as the main research object and combined with the features of uninhabited island ecosystem, regional ecological risk assessment was carried out with the relative risk model (RRM) taking an exemple of Chu island. According to ‘Weihai Chu island protection and utilization planning (2011~2020)’, the study area was divided into three risk areas, which are key protected area, basic facility area and ecological tourism area. Birds, sea cucumbers and their habitat as the receptors for Chu island ecological risk assessment was selected, and combined with the regional sources of risk occurrence probability, the range and intensity, storm surge, drought and cold wave were the main risk sources in the region. The exposure response relationship of “risk source—stress—habitat—ecological end point” in each risk area was analyzed. We pointed out: (1) in the development and utilization process of Chu island, storm surge is the most influential source of risk in the region, and its influence is far higher than drought and cold wave; (2) the island land resources, especially the vegetation, affected by the risk source is the largest, followed by water and the tidal flat; (3) As the two main functional areas in the development and utilization process of Chu island, the relative risk value of basic facility area and ecological tourism area, which is 1.05 and 0.97 respectively, is larger than key protection area, and its relative risk value is 0.5.

DEVELOPING A COMPREHENSIVE RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL BASED ON FUZZY BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK (FBBN)

Reliable and efficient risk assessments are essential to deal effectively with potential risks in international construction projects. However, most conventional risk modeling methods are based on the hypothesis that risk factors are independent, which does not account adequately for the causal relationships among risk factors. In this study, a risk assessment model for international construction projects was developed to improve the efficacy of risk management by integrating fault tree analysis and fuzzy set theory with a Bayesian belief network. The risk rating of each risk factor, expressed as the product of risk occurrence probability and impact, was incorporated into the risk assessment model to evaluate degrees of risk. Therefore, risk factors were categorized into different risk levels taking into account their inherent causal relationships, which allowed the identification of critical risk factors. The applicability of the fuzzy Bayesian belief network-based risk assessment model was verified using a case study through a comparative analysis with the results from a fuzzy synthetic evaluation method. The comparison shows that the proposed risk assessment model is able to provide guidelines for an effective risk management process and ultimately to increase project performance in a complex environment such as international construction projects.

Strategic Risk Management in Design Companies (Based on LLC Giprosintez)

The article reviews the risks that affect design activities with reference to and critical analysis of existing publications on risk management efficiency. As a result of systematization of risks, the most common problems in the field of design are characterized and a program for managing strategic risks is compiled. Thestrategic risk management program describes the existing categories of strategic risks that design companies tend to face, the design company’s strategic risk analysis, the strategic risk protection policy, strategic risk management scenarios and the organizational breakdown structure for evaluating and managing strategic risks, and the strategic risk management program monitoring procedures. The risk systematization identifies some risk categories, such as operational strategic risks (production risks including personnel-, technology-, planning-, industry- and financerelated, and commercial risks) and strategy-inherent risks. The author suggests a method for risk assessment by expert evaluation. The strategic risk management scenarios presented herein outline the measures that, being properly implemented, decrease the probability of risk occurrence and thus enable to make the risks more controllable and promptly respond to external and internal challenges. The strategic risk management program suggested by the author helps configure the potential strategic approaches to ensure financial stability of a design company.

Safety Risk Assessment of Prefabricated Building Construction Based on Bayesian Network

A safety risk assessment index system including four types of risk conditions: foundation pit construction risk status, construction and shipment risk status, hoisting operation risk status and prefabricated component installation risk status is established. Based on Bayesian network, fabricated by Netica software to evaluate the construction safety risk probability, through the function of Sensitivity to Findings conduct sensitivity analysis on the probability of risk occurrence. Based on the risk calculation, get the more prominent risk factors in each type of risk situation. According to the result of risk assessment, the countermeasures of construction safety risk of prefabricated building are put forward.

Динамічний метод оцінювання ризиків у системі фінансового менеджменту

The main definitions and formalization of various types of survival models such as empirical survival function, generalized linear model, Cox proportional hazards model and its modifications and nonparametric models are presented for risk assessment. A dynamic method of risk assessment that allows to assess the risk’s degree and level and also to predict the transition from critical to catastrophic risk by using of parametric, semi-parametric and nonparametric models based on survival functions has been proposed. The method allows to apply data stratification and separately to simulate different survival functions for different data categories. The method involves the identification of statistically significant characteristics, the development of different survival models and selection of the best model by the set of criteria, testing the hypothesis about the same distribution of risk functions and at finally defined time, the probability of risk occurrence or probable losses are determined accordingly. Also it includes two developed by author algorithms that allow prediction of such a time based on the established permissible (critical) probability of risk occurrence or restriction of possible economic losses, in particular, the moment of risk transition from permissible to critical or catastrophic (in the defined amount of critical or catastrophic losses). The algorithm for calculating the moment of transition to the higher risk probability (risk degree) could be presented in two possible variations. The first possibility is defining time through the calculation of the derivative of the risk function, which was given explicitly. The second option is to define through the «probability reserve» (as the speed of probability change). The algorithm for determining the moment of occurrence of risk’s critical (catastrophic) level by losses is performed as an iterative step-by-step procedure of transition point search for losses from critical to catastrophic. Tabl.: 1. Fig.: 1. Refs: 12 titles.

Calculation of risk costs in construction projects

AbstractAs early as 1971, Schubert made a first contribution to the consideration of risks during the execution of construction projects. In addition to that, he was first to introduce elements of the risk management process to the construction management literature in Germany. By the use of an empirical study of the probability of risk occurrence and the cost amount by risk occurrence, Schubert made among others a statement about the importance of the risks depending on the amount of the risk costs. In an updated study for building construction projects with construction costs ≤2.5 million € and unit price contracts applying the VOB/B primarily the altered risk evaluations are shown; it needs to be emphasized that the sum of the determined risk costs corresponds to Schubert's results. Furthermore, with a variation of the characteristic attributes (response options) of the probability of risk occurrence and the cost amount by risk occurrence, it can be displayed that the risk costs during the execution of building construction projects are even considerably higher. Additionally, a probabilistic risk cost calculation — applying the Monte Carlo method — is used to reveal the bandwidth of risk costs. It can be pointed out that the risk costs range between 2.71% and 8.67% of the construction costs. The results could serve as a benchmark for contractors during the tender calculation to determine the amount of risk costs depending for example, on the market situation, the company‐specific risk disposition as well as strategic considerations.

Evaluation of product quality nonconformity risk found at production

This article deals with the possibilities of risk evaluation of product quality nonconformity found at production. In first parts of article main steps needed for risk analyses are defined, including created by the author’s mathematic models for risk evaluation and scoring system for characteristics, weighted based on expert consultation. In the following part developed methodic is approbated at production of household appliances on example of washing machines production. Risk of increase of technical call rate and warranty costs are evaluated. General risk level based on probability of risk occurrence, severity of risk consequences is also calculated. In the last part, using the knowledge from the previous parts document for evaluation of risks of quality nonconformity found during production process is created.

Identifying the Critical Risks in Railway Projects Based on Fuzzy and Sensitivity Analysis: A Case Study of Belt and Road Projects

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a Chinese development strategy developed in order to establish connectivity and deepen cooperation between China and other countries, increase trade, and support the socio-economic development of vast regions. A significant number of railway projects are planned to be constructed under BRI since railways are the most efficient means of transportation. This paper investigates the critical risks in railway projects implemented under BRI. In total, 24 potential risks in BRI railway projects are identified and categorized into 6 groups. A questionnaire survey is conducted in order to collect data about the probability of risk occurrence and their impact. To identify the critical risks in railway projects, a novel method based on fuzzy and sensitivity analysis is developed and applied for risk assessment. This method uses a fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach to assess risks and sensitivity analysis as criteria for critical risk identification. The results show that the most critical risks in railway projects are changes in design, design errors, cooperation between China and BRI country, loan risk, complex geological conditions of terrain, and geopolitical risk. The theoretical contribution of this paper is a novel method which combines fuzzy and sensitivity analysis into a single approach.

Project Risk Identification Based on the Interaction of Risks from the Approach of Multi-agent Simulation

Risk, which is intrinsically a hidden uncertainty, often conceals in all links of a project, making it groundless for reasoning and demonstration in risk identification. In a practical project, risks combine and interact with each other in a complicated manner, so that it is difficult to directly quantify the probability of their occurrence under the impact of interaction. For this reason, this paper utilizes the common risk identification methods to obtain a risk list, and then constructs a risk interaction network to identify their interaction and determine its strength. Subsequently, the approach of multi-agent simulation is taken to determine the probability of risk occurrence while taking into account the interaction of risks.

Optimal budget allocation for risk mitigation strategy in trucking industry: An integrated approach

Trucking industry plays a major role in the transportation of goods across different geographical locations. The operational complexities of the trucking industry lead to various risks. This study focuses on effective design and implementation of risk-mitigation strategies for the trucking industry with consideration for budget restrictions. In this paper, both subjective and objective attributes are considered in the mathematical modeling and thereby tries to capture realism in the strategic decision-making process. The results of the study provide novel insights that relate the impact of risk on the cost of mitigation. Further, the effect of three characteristics, targeted risk level (TRL), implementation cost (IC) of strategy, and the probability of risk occurrence (PO) is shown in designing and developing risk-mitigation strategies. The experimental analysis not only augments theoretical knowledge related to risk management decision-making processes but also contributes to designing and developing a risk-mitigation strategy under economic constraints. From the managerial perspective, the study demonstrates how decision-makers can benefit from an integrated approach to develop a more holistic understanding of risk-management processes. This study also provides guidelines in policy selection considering higher return on investment (ROI). The paper concludes by highlighting the key findings and discussing opportunities for future research.

Assessment of local technogenic hazards of the industrial zone

The article deals with the issues of employee safety under the influence of local man-made hazards. The example of the welding process is used to calculate the risk of work in a confined space. The issues of application of protective means for prevention of violations of health of the worker are discussed.The situation of emergency shutdown of ventilation during the work of personnel in difficult conditions was simulated. When calculating the probability of risk occurrence in the simulated situation, toxic effects of nitrogen dioxide on the health were established for the options of absence and presence of protection (mask).

Risk probability predictions for coal enterprise infrastructure projects in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

The Belt and Road Initiative has significantly promoted the construction and development of coal enterprises along the Belt and Road through the building of a new platform that encourages global economic cooperation. This study examines problems caused by the uncertainty of risk occurrence during the process of coal enterprise construction as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Consequently, the study identifies and classifies various risk factors. In total, 11 types of risks and 39 risk factors involved in the construction process are summarized. These include natural, cultural, religious, marketing, and outsourcing-related risks. A prediction indicator system was also established to apply to the risk occurrence probability related to coal mine construction along the Belt and Road. In this regard, the study embedded an improved artificial fish swarm algorithm (IAFSA) into a cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC) neural network model and collected risk probability details for the construction of the Barapukuria Coal Mine in Bangladesh from 2013 to 2018 as sample data. By researching the model and sample, this study obtained various risk occurrence probability intervals. Moreover, diversified risk probabilities were verified and predicted. Finally, this study empirically proves that an IAFSA–CMAC parallel coupling algorithm is able to achieve precise predictions about risks. This finding has great significance for risk management and control in the coal enterprises of countries along the Belt and Road.

What is Our Perception of Project Risk, and do the Current Theories Truly Reflect Our Pragmatic Interpretation of This Perception?

Risk behavior of management and the consideration of utilities and the propensity to accept certain risks, fall into a broad field of behavior and cognitive decision-making. This paper explores the wide literature on the perception of risk (in particular project risk) and then focuses on a very narrow area of that research—the perception of the relationship between the probability of risk occurrence and its possible impact if it did occur. Through a case study approach, it concludes that the linear relationship between risk “probability” and “impact” producing a “risk value” ${\text{(RV}} = {\text{P}\,\text{x}\,\text{I)}}$ may not be “perceived” to be correct and that the relationship may, in fact, be exponentially influenced.

Assessment of the Likelihood of Risk Occurrence on Tendering and Procurement of Construction Projects

The construction industry is plagued by risks above other industries due to its unique features which include the complexity of building activities, extended period of construction, complicated processes, financial intensity and dynamic organisational structure. These risks are not adequately dealt with and result in increased cost, time and reduced quality. While many types of research have been conducted on construction risks, only a few types of research have investigated the impact of risk (at tendering and procurement stage) on construction projects before they commence. Meanwhile, risk issues are better solved at bidding and procurement phase than construction phase as the case has been. Therefore, this paper examines the likelihood, degree of impact and probability of risk occurrence on tendering and procurement of construction projects. It also investigates the significant sources of tendering and procurement risks, the level of awareness and adoption of risk management techniques in construction tendering and procurement. The questionnaire for the study was administered on building contractors and consultants. A total of 44 questionnaires were retrieved and used for the analysis of the study. The statistical tools used for analysis are frequencies, percentages, mean scores and t test. The findings of the study revealed 17 significant sources of risk among the 35 that were investigated. Risks with high likelihood of occurrence, the degree of impact and high probability of occurrence were also indicated in the study. Based on the findings, it was concluded that respondents are aware and adopt risk management techniques on construction projects, but their adoption is at response level rather than identification level. Therefore, the recommendation of the study is that awareness should be created on the need for risk identification before construction projects commence. This should be implemented at professional and organizational level. Construction stakeholders should guard against risks with a high degree of impact and probability of occurrence during tendering and procurement of construction projects. Therefore, this study contributes to the body of knowledge by investigating the significant sources of risks to tendering and procurement, likelihood of risk occurrence, impact of risks and probability of risk occurrence in tendering and procurement.
 Keywords: Construction projects, Cost overrun, Impact of risk, Probability of risk, Procurement, Sources of risk, Tendering and procurement.

Chemical Safety Risk Evaluation and Early Warning Approaches

Today, China has witnessed a rapid development in the economy, which has seen an explosive growth of the chemical industry. In this context, the safety risk of greater hidden dangers ensues. This paper describes the definition and the classification of safety risks those chemical enterprises face now. There is a reasonable level-to-level management of the risk sources in the chemical enterprises, where the concept of appropriate risk capacity was also introduced. The dangerous substances are also accommodated to a controllable probability of risk occurrence by controlling the appropriate risk capacity of chemical enterprises. A diamond forewarning model for enterprises’ safety risk is thereby established. Not only that, the safety risk management case in a chemical enterprise is cited to prove how the model proposed here is feasible and will be available for risk management.