Risk Mitigation Measures Research Articles

A TOPSIS—Risk Matrix and Monte Carlo Expert System for Risk Assessment in Engineering Projects

In this paper, we propose a process that combines the Risk Matrix approach with the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and the Monte Carlo Simulation for assessing risk factors that have an impact on the duration of a construction project’s activities and predict if it is feasible to terminate the project within the prescribed deadlines. Initially, we identified the risks affecting each task of the specific project, and then, we applied the risk matrix approach for determining the probability and impact of every risk to each activity. The resulting ranking is used to assign uncertainty to activities’ durations and estimate the probability of on-time project completion, employing the Monte Carlo Simulation approach. The main contribution of this paper is the development of an innovative framework that coordinates an established qualitative and quantitative risk classification approach, with a popular multicriteria method and a powerful simulation approach, to effectively predict time deviations while executing complex construction projects under uncertainty. The proposed framework was applied to estimate the possibility of a timely execution of an artificial lake real project on the island of Alonissos, Greece. The analysis results illustrate that this approach clearly could help the project risk manager proactively perform risk mitigation measures while allocating budget and programming a project with a significant impact on the quality of life of residents and tourists of a small island.

Quantitative risk assessment of a hydrogen refueling station by using a dynamic physical model based on multi-physics system-level modeling

Numerous accidents in HRSs have been reported worldwide in accident databases; therefore, many researchers have performed quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of HRSs to enable risk-informed decision making in determining the safety distances or risk mitigation measures. The HRSs, located in urban areas such as Tokyo in Japan, are situated in congested areas with tall buildings and high population density; thus, they have relatively narrow station areas. However, the QRAs are generally suitable for large plants such as nuclear power plants or chemical plants; therefore, relatively small plants or installations, such as HRSs, have not yet been considered as QRA objects. Hence, it is necessary to conduct detailed QRAs with risk analyses and reduce the applied uncertainties for relatively small plants or installations. We applied a model-based approach of risk assessment to model the HRS process using multi-physics system-level modeling and simulated a target system using Modelica—an equation-based, object-oriented modeling language that allows acausal modeling of complex cyber-physical systems The primary aim of this study was to conduct a QRA of an HRS based on multi-physics system-level modeling. First, we modeled the HRS components and physical relationships between the components using basic physical equations. Then, we elucidate a QRA based on the constructed model. The difference in the leakage rates due to the leak positions and dynamic behavior of the model parameters were calculated using the constructed model. Finally, we estimated the individual risks of all the scenarios and compared the resulting risk contours based on the constructed model that includes the hydrogen-fuel dynamic behavior with those based on the traditional model. These results indicate that it is possible to assess whether the risks around the station boundary are acceptable based on the scenario information obtained by evaluating the risks near the station.

Assessing the vulnerability of transport network to flood hazard using GIS analysis. Case study along Orient-East Med TEN-T Corridor, on Timiș-Cerna Valley, Romania

In the context of current climate change, it is estimated that flood risk will increase significantly, with important consequences for the human habitat and transport networks. Research literature features a continuous concern both for the improvement of flood hazard modeling and for the quantification of economic costs specific to material and human damage caused by floods. In the present study, we intend to perform an analysis on the vulnerability of the transport network along the Orient-East Med (OEM) Corridor, part of the TEN-T Core network at European level. By integrating flood bands with high (10 years) and medium (100 years) probability of recurrence, as well as various typologies of the transport network in a GIS environment, we successfully identified and characterized road and railway sectors susceptible to flooding events. Vector overlay analysis and statistical methods were validated by means of local research literature, field observations and aerial imagery. Our results feature the geographic distribution and statistical characterization of transport infrastructure vulnerable to flood risk along Timiș-Cerna Valley, in south-western Romania. We also discuss the state of current flood risk mitigation measures for transport network in the study area, along with the importance of our research for regional and local spatial planning documents and investment prioritization activities. Similar spatially-enabled analysis could enable better protection for the current and proposed transport infrastructure and minimize the damaging effects of flash floods.

Women's Lives Matter-The Critical Need for Women to Prioritize Optimal Physical Activity to Reduce COVID-19 Illness Risk and Severity.

Physical activity (PA) is beneficial for the health and wellness of individuals and societies. During an infectious disease pandemic, such as the one caused by COVID-19, social distancing, quarantines, and lockdowns are used to reduce community spread of the disease. Unfortunately, such nonpharmacological interventions or physical risk mitigation measures also make it challenging to engage in PA. Reduced PA could then trigger physiological changes that affect both mental and physical health. In this regard, women are more likely to experience physical and psychological distress. PA is a safe and effective nonpharmacological modality that can help prevent and manage several mental and physical health problems when performed correctly. PA might even confer benefits that are directly related to decreasing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in women. In this review, we summarize why optimal PA must be a priority for women during the COVID-19 pandemic. We then discuss chronic COVID-19 illness and its impact on women, which further underscores the need for worldwide preventive health strategies that include PA. Finally, we discuss the importance of vaccination against COVID-19 for women, as part of prioritizing preventive healthcare and an active lifestyle.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Individuals with Hearing and Visual Disabilities during the First Pandemic Wave in Italy.

Background. The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed radical behavioral and social changes in the general population, significantly impacting the lives of individuals affected by disabilities. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on non-institutionalized subjects with sensorineural disabilities during the first COVID-19 wave in Italy. Methods. A 39-item online national survey was disseminated from 1 April 2020 to 31 June 2020 via social media throughout Italy to communities of individuals with proven severe sensorineural disabilities, affiliated to five national patient associations. The survey collected extensive information on the socio-demographic profile, health, everyday activities, and lifestyle of individuals with hearing and visual disabilities. Results. One hundred and sixty-three respondents with hearing (66.9%) and visual (33.1%) disabilities returned a usable questionnaire. The mean age of interviewees was 38.4 ± 20.2 years and 56.3% of them were females. Despite the vast majority of respondents (77.9%) perceiving their health status as unchanged (68.8% of interviewees with hearing deficits vs. 96.3% of those with visual impairments), about half the interviewees reported sleep disorders during lock-down, more likely those with visual deficits. Remote services were seemingly more effective for business than school activities. Furthermore, although just 18.8% of respondents rated remote rehabilitation care unsatisfactory, only 12.8% of interviewees felt supported by health and social services during the COVID-19 emergency. The vast majority of respondents were concerned about the future and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 contagion, particularly individuals with hearing impairments. Among the various risk mitigation measures, facemasks caused the greatest discomfort due to communication barriers, particularly among interviewees affected by hearing disabilities (92.2% vs. 45.7%). The most common request (46.5%) of respondents to reduce the inconveniences of the COVID-19 emergency country lock-down was improving the access to and delivery of health and social services for individuals with sensorineural disabilities (19.3%), followed by the use of transparent masks (17.5%). Conclusions. Although health protection measures such as face masks and social distancing play a key role in preventing and controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the unmet needs of disabled individuals should be carefully considered, especially those affected by sensory disabilities. Tailored access to health and social services for individuals affected by sensorineural disabilities should be implemented. Additional actions should include the use of to face masks to reduce communication barriers linked to hearing-impairment, as well as the improvement of remote services, especially distance learning at school.

Implementation of mass drug administration for neglected tropical diseases in Guinea during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Guinea reported its first case of COVID-19 on March 12, 2020. Soon thereafter, a national state of emergency was declared, all land borders were closed, schools were shut down, and public gatherings were limited. Many health activities, including field-based activities targeting neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), were paused. The World Health Organization (WHO) issued updated guidance on the resumption of NTD field-based activities on July 27, 2020. In response, the Guinea Ministry of Health (MoH) and its partners planned and resumed mass drug administration (MDA) in mid-August to September 2020 in 19 health districts. A risk-benefit assessment was conducted to identify potential risks associated with the MDA in the COVID-19 context. Following this assessment, a risk mitigation plan with barrier measures was developed to guide MDA implementation. These measures included COVID-19 testing for all national staff leaving Conakry, mask wearing, social distancing of two meters, and hand washing/sanitizing. A checklist was developed and used to monitor compliance to risk mitigation measures. Data on adherence to risk mitigation measures were collected electronically during the MDA. A total of 120 checklists, representing 120 community drug distributor (CDD) teams (two CDDs per team) and 120 households, were completed. Results indicated that washing or disinfecting hands was practiced by 68.3% of CDD teams, compared to 45.0% among households. Face masks to cover the mouth and nose were worn by 79.2% of CDD teams, while this was low among households (23.3%). In 87.5% of households, participants did not touch the dose pole and in 88.3% of CDD teams, CDDs did not touch the hands of the participants while giving the drugs. A large majority of CDD teams (94.2%) and household members (94.2%) were willing to participate in the MDA despite the pandemic. The epidemiological coverage was ≥65% for lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and soil-transmitted helminths in 10 out of 19 HDs and ≥75% for schistosomiasis for school-aged children in 7 out of 11 HDs. Guinea was one of the first countries in Africa to resume MDA activities during the COVID-19 pandemic without causing an observed increase of transmission. The development of a risk mitigation plan and a method to monitor adherence to barrier measures was critical to this unprecedented effort. The rapid incorporation of COVID-19 barrier measures and their acceptance by CDDs and household members demonstrated both the adaptability of the National NTD Program to respond to emerging issues and the commitment of the MoH to implement NTD programs.

Managing minority opinions in risk evaluation by a delegation mechanism-based large-scale group decision-making with overlapping communities

Energy performance contracting (EPC) mechanism is a good choice for conducting energy-saving renovation projects of public buildings. Furthermore, risk analysis is critical to smoothly implement these EPC projects. Therefore, this paper intends to set up a large-scale group decision-making (LGDM) framework based on delegation mechanism to rank risk factors of EPC projects. Firstly, some risk factors and evaluation criteria are identified. Meanwhile, the assessment is expressed as picture fuzzy numbers (PFNs) to handle conflicting opinions and refusals. Then, a novel bidirectional projection measure that considers both distance and included angle is defined, which can better describe the difference between two PFNs. Next, this paper uses a suitable algorithm to cluster experts and presents a delegation mechanism to allocate trust weights of external experts to internal experts. Then, a new method to protect minority opinions is presented. In addition, we use preference risk coefficient to integrate the uncertainty of decision information in consensus-reaching process (CRP), which reduces the risk of LGDM. We come up with an extended MULTIMOORA method to make full use of three parts of MULTIMOORA method. Moreover, the proposed framework is successfully implemented in a case study and some risk mitigation measures and management implications are presented.

The social amplification and attenuation of COVID-19 risk perception shaping mask wearing behavior: A longitudinal twitter analysis.

Twitter represents a mainstream news source for the American public, offering a valuable vehicle for learning how citizens make sense of pandemic health threats like Covid-19. Masking as a risk mitigation measure became controversial in the US. The social amplification risk framework offers insight into how a risk event interacts with psychological, social, institutional, and cultural communication processes to shape Covid-19 risk perception. Qualitative content analysis was conducted on 7,024 mask tweets reflecting 6,286 users between January 24 and July 7, 2020, to identify how citizens expressed Covid-19 risk perception over time. Descriptive statistics were computed for (a) proportion of tweets using hyperlinks, (b) mentions, (c) hashtags, (d) questions, and (e) location. Six themes emerged regarding how mask tweets amplified and attenuated Covid-19 risk: (a) severity perceptions (18.0%) steadily increased across 5 months; (b) mask effectiveness debates (10.7%) persisted; (c) who is at risk (26.4%) peaked in April and May 2020; (d) mask guidelines (15.6%) peaked April 3, 2020, with federal guidelines; (e) political legitimizing of Covid-19 risk (18.3%) steadily increased; and (f) mask behavior of others (31.6%) composed the largest discussion category and increased over time. Of tweets, 45% contained a hyperlink, 40% contained mentions, 33% contained hashtags, and 16.5% were expressed as a question. Users ascribed many meanings to mask wearing in the social media information environment revealing that COVID-19 risk was expressed in a more expanded range than objective risk. The simultaneous amplification and attenuation of COVID-19 risk perception on social media complicates public health messaging about mask wearing.

AI Training Datasets & Article 14 GDPR

[Purpose] At the earliest stages in AI lifecycle, training, verification and validation of machine learning and deep learning algorithm require vast datasets that usually contain personal data, which however is not obtained directly from the data subject, while very often the controller is not in a position to identify the data subjects or such identification may result to disproportionate effort. This situation raises the question on how the controller can comply with its obligation to provide information for the processing to the data subjects, especially when proving the information notice is impossible or requires a disproportionate effort. There is little to no guidance on the matter. The purpose of this paper is to address this gap by designing a clear risk-assessment methodology that can be followed by controllers when providing information to the data subjects is impossible or requires a disproportionate effort. [Methodology] After examining the scope of the transparency principle, Article 14 and its proportionality exemption in the training and verification stage of machine learning and deep learning algorithms following a doctrinal analysis, we assess whether already existing tools and methodologies can be adapted to accommodate the GDPR requirement of carrying a balancing test, in conjunction with, or independently of a DPIA. [Findings] Based on an interdisciplinary analysis, comprising theoretical and descriptive material from a legal and technological point of view, we propose a risk-assessment methodology as well as a series of risk-mitigating measures to ensure the protection of the data subject's rights and legitimate interests while fostering the uptake of the technology. [Practical Implications] The proposed balancing exercise and additional measures are designed to facilitate entities training or developing AI, especially SMEs, within and outside of the EEA, that wish to ensure and showcase the data protection compliance of their AI-based solutions.

Risk assessment of equipment at gas storage depots based on clustering and principal component analysis

In China, the number of gas storage depots under construction and planning has increased in recent years. The scale of construction is moving towards large-scale development, increasing the safety risk. This study analyzed the risk to ground equipment at gas storage depots by examining the site conditions of the Wen 96 gas storage depot. Furthermore, this paper proposed a calculation method to semi-quantitatively assess the risk implications to ground process equipment at gas storage depots and a quantitative model for the failure consequences using the API581 method. The API581 risk failure consequence analytical data was used to propose comprehensive risk assessment methods for process equipment at gas storage depots, including cluster and principal component analyses. Categories and equipment with principal component characteristics were suggested that considered the risk impact factors and rankings of vital equipment, improving the quantification of the API581 method. This work enhanced the quantitative risk evaluation accuracy when assessing equipment. Risk mitigation measures are provided according to the revised risk ranking, which is highly significant to the safe operation of gas storage depots.

CAESAR II Tool: Complementary Analyses for Emergency Planning Based on Seismic Risks Impact Evaluations

Italy is a country with high seismic hazard, however since the delay in the seismic classification of the national territory, most of the existing building heritage does not comply with the current technical standards for buildings. The seismic events that have hit different Italian regions in recent years have highlighted the complexity of the challenge for the public bodies both in the emergency management and post-event reconstruction and in the planning of effective risk prevention and mitigation measures to be implemented in ‘peacetime’. These difficulties concern, in particular, the capacity to properly manage the financial and technical resources available and to identify the intervention priorities throughout the entire emergency cycle. For correct management, the priority is to quantify and localize, through simulations, the quantification of probable damages and to evaluate in terms of cost-benefits the possible alternative strategies for mitigation, also taking into account the potential, in terms of cost-effectiveness, of integrated measures for seismic and energy retrofitting. In this framework, the project CAESAR II (Complementary Analyses for Emergency planning based on Seismic Risks impact evaluations) has been developed as a Decision Support System for Public Authorities in charge of developing Disaster Risk Reduction plans, with the possibility of programming mid to long-term investments for public and private properties, as well as defining custom financial support mechanisms and tax incentives.

An integrated dynamic ship risk model based on Bayesian Networks and Evidential Reasoning

The paper proposes a probabilistic framework for assessing the risk of ships based on a hybrid approach and multiple data sources. A Bayes-based network learning approach uses data from the New Inspection Regime of the Paris MoU on Port State Control to characterise the relationships among risk parameters and uses these parameters to evaluate the ship static risk. Other data sources are used to develop a Bayesian Network model to assess the dynamic risk of the ship. The data is aggregated by Bayesian Network and Evidential Reasoning approaches to evaluate the overall risk of ships in coastal waters. The objective of the study is to develop a model to assess the risk of an individual ship by considering its static risk profile and the geographical-dependant risk factors related to the characteristics of the maritime traffic flow and other local characteristics that influence the navigational risk of the ship. The results show that the integrated approach is able to assess the overall risk of a ship based on multiple data sources, providing empirical evidence of using multiple data sources in risk analysis applications. Moreover, the developed model identifies the most critical circumstances and the key impact factors in the study waters, which can support decisions on risk prevention and mitigation measures and local maritime traffic management.

Prioritizing risk mitigation measures for binary heavy metal contamination emergencies at the watershed scale using bayesian decision networks

Water pollution accidents have the characteristics of high uncertainty, rapid evolution and are difficult to control, thus posing great threats to human health, ecological security, and social stability. During the last 10 years, China has faced the occurrence of six extraordinarily serious heavy metal contamination pollution events at the watershed scale. This has alerted governments and enterprises of the significance of emergency decision-making. To quantitatively prioritize risk mitigation strategies for heavy metal emergencies, a Bayesian Decision Network-based probabilistic model is proposed under the Drivers-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. A Copula-based exposure risk model is embedded to simulate the fate of heavy metal ions for each risk reduction option, whose joint probability distributions can then be used as input parameters in the Bayesian Decision Network. This method was applied to the emergency response prioritization for acute Cr(VI)–Hg(II) contamination accidents in the Danshui River watershed. The results indicated that comprehensive measure (M5) was the best option for decreasing ecological and human health risks. As for a single risk mitigation strategy, risk source prevention (M1) was the best alternative compared to exposure pathway interruption (M2) and human/ecological receptor protection (M3–M4). This probabilistic method can not only address the uncertainties between certain risk sources and receptors in the BDN structure, but also realize the risk system optimization in a satisfactory/preferred mode under the DPSIR framework. Overall, it provides the probabilistic risk estimates for watershed-scale risk management and policy making for local risk managers and stakeholders.

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and differential risk of cardiac and non-cardiac QT-prolonging drugs in 37 000 cases.

AimsDrugs that prolong the QT interval, either by design (cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs: anti‐arrhythmics) or as off‐target effect (non‐cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs), may increase the risk of ventricular arrhythmias and out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Risk mitigation measures were instituted, in particular, surrounding prescription of cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs. We studied OHCA risk of both drug types in current clinical practice.MethodsUsing data from large population‐based OHCA registries in the Netherlands and Denmark, we conducted two independent case–control studies. OHCA cases with presumed cardiac causes were matched on age/sex/index date with up to five non‐OHCA controls. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for the association of cardiac or non‐cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs with OHCA risk using conditional logistic regression analyses.ResultsWe identified 2503 OHCA cases and 10 543 non‐OHCA controls in the Netherlands, and 35 017 OHCA cases and 175 085 non‐OHCA controls in Denmark. Compared to no use of QT‐prolonging drugs, use of non‐cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs (Netherlands: cases: 3.0%, controls: 1.9%; Denmark: cases: 14.9%, controls: 7.5%) was associated with increased OHCA risk (Netherlands: OR 1.37 [95% CI: 1.03–1.81]; Denmark: OR 1.63 [95% CI: 1.57–1.70]). The association between cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs (Netherlands: cases: 4.0%, controls: 2.5%; Denmark: cases: 2.1%, controls: 0.9%) and OHCA was weaker (Netherlands: OR 1.17 [95% CI: 0.92–1.50]; Denmark: OR 1.21 [95% CI: 1.09–1.33]), although users of cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs had more medication use and comorbidities associated with OHCA risk than users of non‐cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs.ConclusionIn clinical practice, cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs confer lower OHCA risk than non‐cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs, although users of the former have higher a priori risk. This is likely due to risk mitigation measures surrounding prescription of cardiac QT‐prolonging drugs.

SARS-CoV-2 infection risk during delivery of childhood vaccination campaigns: a modelling study

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the delivery of immunisation services globally. Many countries have postponed vaccination campaigns out of concern about infection risks to the staff delivering vaccination, the children being vaccinated, and their families. The World Health Organization recommends considering both the benefit of preventive campaigns and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when making decisions about campaigns during COVID-19 outbreaks, but there has been little quantification of the risks.MethodsWe modelled excess SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to vaccinators, vaccinees, and their caregivers resulting from vaccination campaigns delivered during a COVID-19 epidemic. Our model used population age structure and contact patterns from three exemplar countries (Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Brazil). It combined an existing compartmental transmission model of an underlying COVID-19 epidemic with a Reed-Frost model of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk to vaccinators and vaccinees. We explored how excess risk depends on key parameters governing SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, and aspects of campaign delivery such as campaign duration, number of vaccinations, and effectiveness of personal protective equipment (PPE) and symptomatic screening.ResultsInfection risks differ considerably depending on the circumstances in which vaccination campaigns are conducted. A campaign conducted at the peak of a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with high prevalence and without special infection mitigation measures could increase absolute infection risk by 32 to 45% for vaccinators and 0.3 to 0.5% for vaccinees and caregivers. However, these risks could be reduced to 3.6 to 5.3% and 0.1 to 0.2% respectively by use of PPE that reduces transmission by 90% (as might be achieved with N95 respirators or high-quality surgical masks) and symptomatic screening.ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 infection risks to vaccinators, vaccinees, and caregivers during vaccination campaigns can be greatly reduced by adequate PPE, symptomatic screening, and appropriate campaign timing. Our results support the use of adequate risk mitigation measures for vaccination campaigns held during SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, rather than cancelling them entirely.

An investigation into environmental variables influencing post-race exertional heat illness in thoroughbred racehorses in temperate eastern Australia.

Exertional heat illness (EHI) is a syndrome that occurs when metabolic heat production from muscular contraction exceeds the rate at which it can be dissipated. Core body temperature rises to critical levels, causing hyperthermia and central nervous system dysfunction. Best practice for the prevention of EHI centres around early detection, rapid response and aggressive cooling. Advance planning enables risk mitigation measures. The more that is known about EHI in horses, the better prepared those in the positions of responsibility can be to anticipate events in which the risk of EHI may be elevated. This prospective, observational study investigated environmental risk factors associated with the occurrence of EHI. From 2014 to 2018, the number of horses exhibiting the symptoms of post-race EHI was recorded at 73 convenience sampled race meetings. Of the 4809 starters, the signs of EHI were recorded for 457. Thermal environmental data were measured and included ambient temperature, radiant heat, vapor pressure (humidity) and wind speed (WS). Mixed linear regression models were computed to assess the associations between the occurrence and incidence of post-race EHI and the four thermal environmental variables. The analysis showed that vapor pressure and WS had the largest effects on the occurrence of post-race EHI. The major limitations were that the race meetings selected were convenience sampled according to attendance by the first author and individual horse data were not available. EHI is influenced by a complex interaction of independently acting environmental variables, but warm, windless, humid days are most likely to result in the cases of EHI.

Commodity risk assessment of Citrus L. fruits from South Africa for Thaumatotibia leucotreta under a systems approach.

The European Commission requested to the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate a dossier from South Africa where the application of the systems approach to mitigate the risk of entry of the false codling moth, Thaumatotibia leucotreta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), into the EU when trading citrus fruits is explained. After collecting additional evidence from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development of South Africa, and reviewing the published literature, the Panel performed an assessment on the likelihood of pest freedom for T. leucotreta on citrus fruits at the point of entry in the EU considering the proposed systems approach. An expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom following the evaluation of the risk mitigation measures on T. leucotreta, including any uncertainties. There are three options (i.e. A, B and C) within the systems approach followed in South Africa that differentiate mainly in the sampling intensity in the field and the packing house as well as in temperature conditions during shipment. Therefore, three independent elicitations were conducted, one for each option. The main uncertainties were: (1) whether sampling once per orchard is representative for subsequent harvests (within 4 weeks) from the same orchard; (2) the correct implementation of the temperature regimes during shipment; (3) the mortality rate in fruit estimated for the different temperature regimes. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that 9,182 out of 10,000 pallets for option A, 8,478 out of 10,000 pallets for option B, and 9,743 out of 10,000 pallets for option C will be free from T. leucotreta. In light of the additional information provided by South Africa once the elicitations were performed, it became apparent that the setting temperature during shipment was not achieved in 12 out of 14 cases of interceptions. Therefore, there is increased uncertainty on pest freedom. The Panel identified the weaknesses associated with the risk mitigation measures in the systems approach and made recommendations that could increase its effectiveness.

Pilot evaluation of risk assessment and enhanced protocols regarding contacts at an international professional golf event

ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to assess whether a risk assessment and managed risk approach to contact tracing was practical and feasible at the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open 2021...

Examining the determinants of flood risk mitigation measures at the household level in Bangladesh

Floods are the most common hazard in Bangladesh adversely affecting the lives and livelihoods of millions of riverine people. Flood-affected households adopt a variety of post-disaster mitigation measures, to the best of their ability, in recognition that similar events are likely to occur again in the future. However, little is known about what drives a household to adopt risk mitigation measures after experiencing a severe flood. The objective of this study was to investigate the determinants of households' decisions on the implementation of flood risk mitigation measures, following the severe flood in 2017 in northern Bangladesh. The data used for this study were collected from the right bank of the Teesta River in Bangladesh through a survey of 377 households and six key informant interviews. Most of the households (83.3%) adopted at least one risk mitigation measure from either structural or nonstructural categories after the 2017 flood. Binary logistic regression models provide useful insights into the determinants of the implementation of mitigation measures and intention to implement mitigation measures in future. The results showed that the perceived probability of flood, perceived preparedness, flood experience, exposure to flood, membership, household head's sex, income source, and landownership significantly influenced households to implement mitigation measures in the post-disaster period. Additionally, the intention to implement mitigation measures was influenced by the membership and education of households. This study contributes in terms of useful information about the determinants of post-disaster mitigation measures in riverine areas of Bangladesh. These findings can be used to target specific households to promote disaster risk reduction interventions.

Impacts, Systemic Risk and National Response Measures Concerning COVID-19—The Island Case Studies of Iceland and Greenland

The Arctic is a remote region that has become increasingly globalized, yet it remains extremely vulnerable to many risks. The COVID-19 pandemic presented new challenges to the region. Using the search, appraisal, synthesis and analysis (SALSA) approach to conduct a meta-synthesis of the academic and grey literature on the impacts of the pandemic, an assessment is conducted of the types of risks that have been presented by the COVID-19 pandemic, the scales, and the national response strategies for mitigating the risks. Two case studies are explored: Iceland and Greenland, island nations that exemplify the extremes of the Arctic and reliance on tourism, a sector that was nearly entirely suspended by the pandemic. An evaluative matrix is employed which combines five different scales of risk—nano, micro, meso, macro and cosmic—with a sustainability categorization of impacts. The risks of the pandemic cut across the respective scale and categories, with the potential for macro-scale events (systemic risk) to unfold linked to economic spillover effects driven by the curtailment of tourism and various supply chain delays. Both Iceland and Greenland have exemplified risk mitigation strategies that prioritize health over wealth, very strictly in the case of the latter. Strict border controls and domestic restrictions have enabled Iceland and Greenland to have much lower case and death numbers than most nations. In addition, Iceland has led the way, globally, in terms of testing and accumulating scientific knowledge through genetic sequencing of the virus. The academic contribution of the paper concerns its broadening of understanding concerning systemic risk, which extends beyond financial implications to includes sustainability dimensions. For policymakers and practitioners, the paper highlights successful risk mitigation and science-based measures that will be useful for any nation tackling a future pandemic, regardless of whether they are island states, Arctic nations or another country.