Risk Matrix Research Articles

The risk matrix: Drug-related deaths in prisons in England and Wales, 2015-2020.

This article explores the factors contributing to drug-related deaths in English and Welsh prisons between 2015 and 2020. Based on content analysis of all Prison and Probation Ombudsman 'other non-natural' fatal incident investigation reports, descriptive statistics were generated. Qualitative analysis explored the circumstances surrounding deaths and key risk factors. Most deaths were of men, whose mean age was 39 years. Drug toxicity was the main factor in causing death, exacerbated by underlying physical health conditions and risk-taking behaviours. A variety of substances were involved. New psychoactive substances became more important over time. A high proportion had recorded histories of substance use and mental illness. During this period, the prison system was under considerable stress creating dangerous environments for drug-related harm. This study highlights the process of complex interaction between substances used, individual characteristics, situational features and the wider environment in explaining drug-related deaths in prisons. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.

Rockfall source areas identification at local scale by integrating discontinuity-based threshold slope angle and rockfall trajectory analyses

Rockfall source areas identification of high steep fractured rock slope is a challenging task for hazard mitigation. Considering this difficulty, a new method integrating discontinuity-based threshold slope angle and rockfall trajectory analyses is introduced in this study and applied to a railway bridge in China. First, abundant discontinuity data are collected by means of the modern unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) digital photogrammetry technique. Then, a threshold slope angle used to delineate rockfall-prone areas is comprehensively determined by probabilistic kinematic and block theory analyses. Next, physically based rockfall trajectory simulation with consideration of mean block size is used to distinguish the hazard level of each release point. Finally, rockfall sources causing moderate and high risks to the train tunnel entrance at the base of high steep fractured rock slope are determined using a semiquantitative risk matrix approach. The final rockfall source map can provide a quantitative reference for hazard mitigation. At the end of this paper, some issues associated with the proposed approach are discussed, such as parameter importance analysis of threshold slope angle, comparison between the two probabilistic approaches and uncertainties in rockfall source areas identification.

Dairy farmers' risk attitudes and their perceptions towards environmental risks in Northwest Turkey

This study aims to determine the factors that affect dairy farmers' risk attitudes and their perceptions towards environmental risks in Northwest Turkey. By the proportional sampling method, data were collected from 381 dairy farmers. The survey was performed from September 2020 to June 2021. The study data were evaluated by descriptive statistics, risk matrix method, equally likely certainty equivalent method and probit model. In this study, severe storm, excessive rainfall/flood, livestock diseases, high temperature and drought was posed an important risk for dairy farmers. The majority of them showed risk aversion behaviour. Age, education level, household size, dairy farming experience, the number of dairy cattle, the land ownership status, livestock insurance and access of agricultural credits had a significant effect on risk perceptions and attitudes of dairy farmers. As a result, these findings are expected to ensure contribution to rural development, province and region economy, insurance institutions, agricultural policy makers, and further emphasizing the importance of environmental risks in dairy farming activity

Планирование и реализация федеральных проектов в арктических регионах с учетом факторов риска

The socio-economic development of the Arctic zones of Russia is carried out in accordance with the federal projects included in the national projects, for the implementation of which programs are being developed aimed at ensuring the achievement of the set goals in a timely manner, which are legally enshrined in federal projects, for example, in the federal project "Development of the Northern Sea Route". The subject of the study is the influence of negative factors on the timing of the implementation of targeted programs aimed at the implementation of national projects. The purpose of the work is to develop a mechanism for assessing the impact of program projects on the completion date of target programs through the use of a risk matrix. The scientific novelty and practical significance of the research consists in the proposed mechanism for constructing a risk matrix of software projects based on the integration of expert assessments, special evaluation scales, an optimization economic and mathematical model and project risk matrices based on a step-by-step algorithm for evaluating software projects and their positioning in the risk matrix. The numerical example makes it easy to master and apply the proposed risk accounting mechanism in the practice of planning and implementing national projects.

Establishment and Application of City Safety Assessment Model Based on Risk Matrix

Urban safety is a common concern in the world, and it is important to evaluate the safety of cities. Based on the existing research results and China's national conditions, this paper establishes an urban safety evaluation model based on "risk matrix" and verifies the scientific validity of the model by using examples. This paper provides a reference for future urban safety management.

ПРОПОЗИЦІЇ ЩОДО ОЦІНКИ РИЗИКІВ УРАЖЕННЯ РЯТУВАЛЬНИКІВ ПІД ЧАС РОЗБОРУ ЗАВАЛІВ БУДІВЕЛЬНИХ КОНСТРУКЦІЙ В УМОВАХ ВІЙСЬКОВИХ ДІЙ

Purpose. Improving the safety of rescuers during the performance of assigned tasks by determining the risks of injury and choosing directions for injury prevention. Methodology. The work used a complex research method, which includes an analysis of literary sources, a review of accidents in the units of the State Emergency Service, and an assessment of the risks of injury to rescuers. Results. As a result of the review of literary sources, the possibilities of risk assessment during the performance of tasks as assigned have been analyzed. It was decided to assess the risks of injury to personnel as a result of multiplying the probability of an event by its consequence. An assessment of the risks of injury to rescuers during the dismantling of the rubble of building structures has been carried out using a risk assessment matrix. The result of the identification of hazards, assessment of the probability and severity of the consequences is a quantitative assessment of the risk of occurrence of dangerous events during the liquidation of the consequences of the collapse of building structures, demolition of rubble. Indicators of risk assessment for certain types of hazards, which are more than a certain value, require a review of the existing ones and the adoption of additional measures to reduce injuries. The method of risk assessment, which consists of determining the zone of damage to people, is more informative when performing tasks as assigned by rescuers, which is the direction of further research. Risk assessment information can be used by unit managers and rescue managers to make decisions about the use of measures and means of reducing the impact of hazards on personnel. Scientific novelty of the obtained results lies in the fact that for the first time, for the conditions of emergency and rescue operations, an assessment of the risks of injury to rescuers has been carried out using a risk matrix. Practical significance of the obtained results lies in the possibility of using the principles and approaches to the assessment of the risks of injury to rescuers during emergency rescue operations and the development of measures to reduce injuries.

Two-Level Ensemble Methods for Efficient Assessment and Region Visualization of Maximal Frequency Deviation Risk

This paper proposes two-level ensemble methods for an efficient risk assessment of the maximal frequency deviation (MFD) caused by stochastic outputs of the multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) in the operational planning. At the foundation level, an ensemble method (PAM-CH) is proposed to enable a fast evaluation and region visualization of MFD risk by iteratively applying partitioning around medoids (PAM) and convex hull (CH). Only the representative samples (RSs) of RES outputs selected by PAM are used to conduct a limited number of time-domain simulations (TDSs), and construct and update the convex hull-based MFD risk region (CHRR) according to the preset risk assessment matrix (RAM). Then relying on the established CHRR, an advanced-level ensemble method (DBSCAN-PAM) is further proposed to conduct an even faster MFD risk assessment to handle varying distributions and correlations of RES outputs depending on different risk assessment tasks (e.g., different planning timescales and RES types). A very limited number of outliers and RSs determined by the density-based spatial clustering of application with noises (DBSCAN) and PAM need to be assessed in this level. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed methods are validated in a modified IEEE 68-bus benchmark system and a real provincial power grid in East China.

Risk assessment of new ferry ship construction in Indonesia using the failure mode effect and analysis (FMEA) method

This study aims to identify, calculate the impact rating, and mitigate the effects on new ferry construction in Indonesian shipyards. The Risk Matrix method and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) are employed to analyze risk levels. Data were collected through field observations and interviews regarding risks and potential delays in ship components. The results reveal 23 potential hazard sources, with two risks having the highest Risk Priority Number (RPN) values. Assessment based on the quality control section that causes delays in the arrival of ME/AE/pumps and other mechanical equipment 366.18. Assessment of the Project Leader process Delay in the assembly/fabrication/erect process 519.49. Part of production leadership Delay in assembly/fabrication/erecting processes 317.37. Based on the assessment of the three sections, high-risk potential occurs in ship hull work, Delays in assembly/fabrication/erect processes, and machining work Delays in the Arrival of ME/AE/Pumps and Machine Equipment. The risk matrix indicates high-risk ratings for component delays in ship hull work, medium risk for machining work, and the low risk for electrical work and other components. The next step is to assess the potential of domestic components and design a component availability model for new shipbuilding, including imported components. This research offers valuable insights for RoRo ferry shipping stakeholders, helping them understand the mechanisms causing delays in new ship construction and guiding efforts to reduce the risk of failure.

Методологический подход к оценке риска производства продукции, не соответствующей нормативным требованиям по содержанию Cs-137 и Sr-90

Radioactive contamination of agricultural lands necessitates the need for developing robust methods, tools and techniques that could, on the one hand, minimize the levels of radionuclides in food products, and on the other hand, facilitate in making informed decisions on economic efficiency of farmland use for the production of different types of foods. Following the Chernobyl nuclear accident, significant farmland areas of the Republic of Belarus were affected by radionuclide contamination of technogenic origin. The main soil contaminants nowadays, after the decay of short-lived nuclides, are Cs-137 и Sr-90. Given that a food product from a contaminated farmland may contain both radionuclides, Cs-137 and Sr-90, the risk of its non-compliance with the established maximum permitted levels of contamination should be assessed not only with regard to each individual radionuclide but also for the both of them simultaneously. Using the risk matrix, significance level criteria and rank assignment, the author proposes a new methodological approach for assessing the risk of non-compliance of the produced agricultural foods to the regulatory requirements, accounting not for either but for both radionuclides (Cs-137 and Sr-90) simultaneously. The use of the risk assessment methodological approach for the agricultural produce non-compliances with the food safety standards regulating the contents of Cs-137 and Sr-90 enables one to make substantiated and scientifically justified decisions on the efficiency of landuse for the particular foodstuff production and/or identify the farmlands where radiation-associated food production restrictions could be lifted.

Risk Assessment Method of Human Resources Outsourcing Based on Risk Matrix

Risk Assessment Method of Human Resources Outsourcing Based on Risk Matrix

Understanding farmers' risk perception and attitude: A case study of rubber farming in West Kalimantan, Indonesia

<abstract> <p>Indonesian rubber farming has the largest area in the world, but its implementation faces various risks that decrease productivity and farm income. This study is designed to specify the risk perception, risk attitude and determinant factors for smallholder rubber farmers. The research location was in four subdistricts in West Kalimantan Province, with a sample size of 200 farmers. Data collection was carried out by interview using a structured questionnaire. The risk matrix, Holt and Laury's method and the logit model were used to identify risk perception, risk attitude and determinant factors. The study results showed that most rubber farmers were risk-averse and perceived climate change, plant diseases and price change as high risks. The logit model found that farmers' age, education, rubber plantation size, rubber age, distance and use of rubber clones had a positive and significant effect on farmers' risk perception, while the family size and farming experience had a negative effect. Regarding risk attitude, the logit model found that rubber age, distance and risk perception of price change had a positive and significant effect on farmers' risk aversion, while farmers' age and use of rubber clones had a negative effect. This study recommends providing informal education to the farmers through training and counseling, encouraging the farmers to replant old or damaged rubber trees and adopt rubber clones. Furthermore, it is also necessary to improve road facilities and infrastructure, communication and transportation access to facilitate farming activities.</p> </abstract>

Методы оценки рисков реализации проектов хозяйственного развития арктических регионов

The subject of the study is the creation of a diversified industrial and technological system of enterprises in the Arctic regions of Russia, which is a very complex process that requires taking into account financial, environmental, and technological factors affecting entrepreneurial activity. This is important because a delay in the implementation of only one project, a change in its location, production capacity and something else other than the initial plan for the formation of the entire complex of enterprises can lead not only to lost profits on this project, but also to potential damage caused to the following enterprises in the production and technological chain before receiving the final result of their activities is the loading of the Northern Sea Route. The purpose of the work is to increase the effectiveness of risk management based on the assessment of the risk of negative events that may cause non—receipt of expected revenues for projects that are inextricably linked by production ties. The novelty of the study is to create a scale for assessing the probability of occurrence of negative events and the possible amount of lost profits to build a risk matrix of projects related to production chains. A variant of assessing the importance of projects to achieve the main result — ensuring the loading of the Northern Sea Route is given. An algorithm has been formed for calculating the risk matrix and, on this basis, assessing the priority of negative events for making management decisions to reduce the risk of violating the implementation plans of the planned plans. It is concluded that the approach chosen in the study can be adapted to any number of projects linked together by the goal. These calculations make it possible to apply the developed scheme for prioritizing the occurrence of negative events to reduce the risks of project implementation in poorly developed regions.

Application of the reliability-centered maintenance techniques for dynamic equipment in the petrochemical ammonia-related systems

The reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) analysis method and the RCM implementation process for dynamic equipment in petrochemical ammonia-related systems were introduced. The operation situation, key roles, and potential risks were clarified through data analysis and system screening in ammonia dynamic equipment, and FMEA was used to analyze the failure mode. Then the risk of each failure mode was managed hierarchically, a suitable risk assessment standard and risk matrix were developed for the enterprise, and a suitable maintenance strategy was formulated for the risk level of each failure mode.

The Russian Federation and Polish Security: a Risk Analysis

Poland considers the Russian Federation as a major threat for its security; these fears have considerably increased since the Russian aggression against Ukraine in early 2022. This article analyses Russia’s policy towards Poland through the risk matrix, taking into account four elements: Poland’s assets, existing threats, vulnerabilities and finally countermeasures adopted by Poland. It focuses on four security sectors: military, economic, political, and societal. The risk of a full-scale military attack on Poland is possible, though a low intensity ‘hybrid’ conflict seems more probable. The overall dependence of the Polish economy on Russia (trade, foreign direct investments) is relatively narrow. However, the energy ties remain relatively strong, which constitutes a risk for Poland, especially since both EU and Russia strive to limit their cooperation in the field of energy. In the political sector, there is a high risk that Russia’s interference could contribute to the deconstruction of the existing political system based on European values, such as democracy and the rule of law. In the societal sector, the assessment of Poland’s vulnerability is not unanimous. Russia has failed to successfully fuel a Polish-Ukrainian societal conflict. Poland had to face however two refugee crises – on Belarussian (2021) and on the Ukrainian (2022) borders; in both cases they were at least indirectly provoked by the Russian Federation.

Operational Aspects and Risk Management of an Autonomous Well Service Pump for Offshore Installations

The paper discusses operational aspects and establishes the basics of risk management for autonomous technology applied to the topside well service pump for offshore installations. In the analysis, a specific machine is investigated, an electrically driven pump with a power of 725 horsepower equipped with a computer-controlled system. The system enables performing basic tests, control checks, and maintenance, for example, from the operator's office onshore. The research is divided into two parts. The first describes machine learning applications and determines autonomy levels for offshore well service pumps. The computer-controlled system in this paper is considered the first stage of autonomy. The level of autonomy was gradually increased by applying machine learning, implementing predictive maintenance techniques and creating the digital twin. The highest autonomy stage enables the machine to make critical decisions. That feature brings many profits, for instance, reducing the number of people in dangerous places or prevents from making bad decisions. The risk assessment analysis was performed in the second part of the paper. The risk description for every level of autonomy (LoA) was provided, and the hazard events were specified and described providing the causes and solutions. Lastly, the experienced team assessed the risk, presenting the results in the risk matrix. The analysis shows that the most hazardous events are related to the connection and environmental conditions with the unit. The research shows that there is a potential for the application of machine learning in machinery systems for the offshore industry. Therefore, there is a need for more research in that field.

Enterprise risk management: A bibliometric analysis of research Trends

A bibliometric study of 510 enterprise risk management (ERM) papers from the Web of Science Core Collection (WOS-CC) database from 2004 to 2023 is presented in this article. The study's main goal was to give a bibliometric overview of ERM research, focusing on annual publications, references, journals, authors, author affiliations, and nations. Each article's author, document type, publication year, source, volume, edition, pages, number of citations, and references were obtained from WOS in BibTex format. To help the research, Biblioshiny evaluated this data. The survey indicated that ERM research has increased fast over the previous two decades, with a consistent upward trend and increasing pace in the past five years. "What's wrong with risk matrices?" by Cox, LA (2008) was the most cited publication in this topic, and the Journal of Risk and Financial Management was the most influential journal. David L. Olson of the University of Nebraska Lincoln was the most prolific author, and UNL was the premier research institution in this area, according to the survey. ERM research was heavily influenced by the US and several other countries. To further ERM research, the paper recommends international collaboration. More research can refine the identification of ERM research hotspots and emerging trends, according to the report.

Using Alternative Investment Vehicles to Replication Hedge Funds Risk and Return

In this paper we will compare the risk return pattern along with the performance measure of hedge funds to alternative investment vehicles, namely the Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Our results showed that exchange traded funds can be used to emulate the hedged funds portfolios’ risk and return matrix, and performance. Exchange traded funds are required to report their investment strategies to the Security and Exchange Commission. Hedged funds have proprietary investment strategies and do not have to report their investment strategies to the Security and Exchange Commission.

DEVELOPMENT OF SCALES FOR ASSESSMENT MATRICES OF OCCUPATIONAL RISKS

Purpose. To justify the procedure for developing scales for building a matrix of professional risk assessment. Methodology. To build a professional risk assessment matrix, we used the recommendations given in DSTU ISO 73:2013 “Risk Management. Glossary of terms (ISO Guide 73:2009 Risk management – Vocabulary), in which, in order to build a matrix of professional risks, it is assumed to determine the category of consequences of a dangerous event with an assessment of their plausibility and the frequency of occurrence of a dangerous event, which allows determining the “probability” scale. Results. An approach to building a matrix of professional risks has been developed, which consists of three main stages: the first is defining the terms and concepts of the matrix of professional risks and their understanding; the second is determining the value of the scale of frequency (or probability) and severity of the consequences of a dangerous event (incident) with full understanding by company employees of the requirements for their assessment and use, based on statistical data and medical definitions of the type and type of injuries, stages of occupational diseases; the third is defining criteria for assessing occupational risks in accordance with standards, laws, policies, experience and specific requirements set by the organization itself (for example, to achieve a level of “zero” injuries). An example of the assessment of the professional risks of a turner’s job of processing a shaft blank with the development of appropriate forms for assessing the frequency (probability) of the occurrence of a dangerous event (injury of an employee’s limb) and the severity of the consequences (limb fracture) for risk calculation and its documentation is given. The main causes of the dangerous event that occurred with a turner due to the worker’s sleeve being caught were determined. The risk assessment algorithm is described, which consists of five steps: identification of the hazard, determination of the frequency or probability of occurrence of a dangerous event and the severity of the injury, assessment of occupational risks, substantiation of precautionary measures and verification of the obtained risk value. Scientific novelty. The approach to the calculation of professional risk is substantiated by determining the frequency of occurrence of a dangerous event and the severity of the consequences of its occurrence, with the justification of risk management actions. Practical significance. The proposed template of a typical professional risk matrix with criteria for scales of the frequency of occurrence of a dangerous event and the severity of its consequences.

Risk Assessment Matrix of Operational Safety (RAMOS): Aviation Safety with a MATLAB® Design Toolkit

Risk Assessment Matrix of Operational Safety (RAMOS): Aviation Safety with a MATLAB® Design Toolkit

The reliability of evaporation ponds as a final basin for industrial effluent: Demonstration of an environmental risk management methodology

Recognizing and assessing environmental risk are key components of every industry management strategy. Projects need to make sure that a detailed environmental risk management strategy is applied by methodically recognizing and addressing threats from internal and external influences to comply with regulatory standards for environmental preservation and safeguarding. This study's goal is to use a novel technique to assess the impact of environmental risks related to the use of evaporation ponds as final basins for industrial effluents. It employs qualitative and statistical methodologies to identify areas where engineering and managerial safeguards' structure, functioning, and lines of defense have flaws that might result in an ecologically hazardous occurrence. Additionally, it will offer a risk evaluation based on the gravity of the impact and the likelihood that the environmental occurrence would happen by using evaporation ponds to store industrial effluents. While the environmental threat would be entirely removed, it must be capable of reducing it to ALARP. The environmental risk assessment matrix will serve as a key factor in determining whether the environmental risk level linked with an evaporation pond is acceptable, as determined by the likelihood and impacts. The result of this research allows industrial units to recognize and control potential environmental risks associated with effluents by practically implementing a new environmental risk matrix based on several environmental and ecological effects with probability factors.•This study aims to assist industrial operators, especially power plants, manage environmental risk by combining ALARP concepts with other factors to evaluate risk acceptance and tolerance levels.•The Physico-chemical characteristics of effluent collected in the evaporation pond reveal that evaporation has a deleterious impact on such industrial effluent, as evidenced by a large increase in various effluent properties, some of which exceed the limit values.•A risk evaluation found that effluent collected in the evaporation pond has a detrimental negative impact on industrial effluents. This was evidenced by a significant rise in associated activities. This could increase the expense of operating and managing evaporation ponds, which could harm the ecosystem.