Pipeline Risk Management Research Articles

Quantitative risk assessment of a natural gas pipeline in an underground utility tunnel

With rapid urbanization in China, many underground utility tunnels have been established these years. This huge underground construction facilitates city life, but may introduce societal risks due to the installation of high‐risk pipelines. Natural gas pipelines have the potential to cause catastrophic accident if a gas leakage and a subsequent explosion occurs. The potential hazards in the gas compartments of a utility tunnel are quite different from those in conventional directly buried gas pipelines. This study developed a dynamic quantitative risk analysis method for natural gas pipelines in a utility tunnel. First, potential accident scenarios of natural gas pipelines situated in a utility tunnel were identified and implemented in a Bow‐tie diagram based on case studies of typical gas pipeline accidents and expert experience. Then, a Bayesian network was established from the Bow‐tie diagram using a mapping algorithm. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the results of probability updating and sensitivity analysis, critical influencing factors were identified. The proposed framework provides a predictive analysis of the gas pipeline accident evolution process from causes to consequences and examines key challenges in gas pipeline risk management in utility tunnels. © 2019 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog: e12051 2019

Dynamic risk assessment of subsea pipelines leak using precursor data

Accidental leak in subsea pipelines poses a severe threat to human life, environment, assets and corporate reputation. Quantitative risk assessment of such events is consistently a challenging task due to data scarcity. In this paper, a new methodology comprising of Hierarchical Bayesian analysis (HBA) implemented with the Bayesian network (BN) is proposed to assess the risk of subsea pipelines leak. This methodology capture both data and model uncertainty. HBA is utilized to handle the uncertainty among failure data from different sources; BN is used to capture the dependencies among primary events and safety barriers. Failure probabilities from HBA approach are used as prior beliefs, and the occurrence probabilities of different scenarios are derived from BN reasoning in uncertain conditions. Furthermore, the proposed methodology makes use of a concept of fuzzy loss ratio to evaluate the consequence of different scenarios. Integrating probability with consequence gives a reasonable risk assessment result. As new observation data becomes available, the assessed risk can be updated to generate a dynamic risk profile. An industrial case study demonstrates the application of the methodology. This methodology can serve as a helpful tool to risk management of subsea pipelines.

Bow tie to improve risk management of natural gas pipelines

The use of pipelines for natural gas transportation is continuously growing around the world. Pipeline accidents affecting the environment, people, assets, and company reputations have historically occurred as a result of failures in risk management. Bow Tie diagrams could provide a clear and resourceful risk management method for the safety and risk practitioner's toolkit. This article describes a case study using Bow Tie methodology to supply an analysis of the effectiveness of existing controls in pipelines and provide a better understanding, mainly to operators and the community, as to pipeline risks and their controls, by presenting a graphical interface. Thus, this article contributes to a better perception and understanding of pipeline risks and can encourage companies to use the main causes, preventive barriers, mitigation barriers, shortfalls, recommended actions, degradation factors and their safeguards as guidelines to construct Bow Tie diagrams for their pipelines in the safety management process. Additionally, the company could use the diagrams as a tool to communicate with the community about the risks and to show stakeholders that the risks are under control. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Process Saf Prog 37: 169–175, 2018

On valuing biopharmaceutical product pipelines: an effectuation model and evidence

New creative approaches are needed to manage emerging biotechnology innovations, regulations, and payor environments to enhance product pipeline productivity, valuation, and risk management. Biopharmaceutical firms must make dynamic resource allocation decisions on their relative levels of internal R&D and external strategic alliances in furthering their pipelines. As the predominant method of using discounted cash flow (DCF) methodologies may lead to chronic underinvestment and performance, we evaluated the integration of traditional DCF with an effectuation model of analysis. Unlike traditional financial models that begin with the end goal of assumed known cash flows and recursively solve for portfolio optimization, the effectuation model—means, affordable loss, partnerships, and expect the unexpected—begins with resources that are readily available to the firm and then seeks to maintain strategic flexibility to take advantage of environmental contingencies as they arise. Using effectuation principles can provide insight into optimizing pipeline decisions by focusing on the logic of control rather than the logic of prediction. Using empirical data, we found that investors were able to effectively differentiate between the pipeline values of among companies. Overall, these results suggest that the integration of effectuation and DCF provides a lens from which to explore emerging varieties of small and large company innovation in the biopharmaceutical industry.

APPLICATION OF FUZZY LOGIC IN RISK ASSESSMENT OF FAILURES AND ACCIDENTS FOR TRUNK OIL PIPELINES

The majority of existing methods of risk assessment of trunk oil pipelines is based on probability and classical set theory. These methods do not take into consideration the fact that any complex system, such as trunk oil pipelines, is a dynamic system with a set of uncertain data. The results of risk assessment (likelihood), obtained by the traditional methods, don’t reflect the real situation about the condition of system. The article presents a methodical approach to identification of risk factors sources and assessment of the level of risk based on system analysis and fuzzy set theory, and this approach allows us to receive output conclusion about risk level in dynamic area of a complex system. The principles of fuzzy logic in the evaluation of diverse parameters of risk factors allow bringing them to a qualitative common denominator. As a result, we can perform comparative research of separate risk factors and also summarize them for assessment of current risk level of trunk oil pipelines. We reviewed causes of incidents and failures on trunk oil pipelines and have identified the most important risk factors that have greatest consequences. Risk factors in our method are determined by fuzzy set rules, which are a result of data analysis (accident reports, failure records for the similar pipelines) and expert’s evaluation of related input parameters. Risk factors and their parameters are classified in accordance with their relation to different environment and life-cycle stages. The article presents an example of evaluation of risk factor . Consequently, the indicator of risk factor was calculated in accordance with procedure of Mamdani fuzzy inference system (using the MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Designer). This method of risk assessment brings high opportunities for identification of the pipeline segments, where the risk level is most probably high and helps the decision maker to take remedial actions to mitigate potential risks. The operator can more effectively manage resources and improve efficiency of actions. Ability to reflect the current risk level is key advantage of our approach to risk assessment of risk management of trunk oil pipelines.

Subsea Pipeline Integrity and Risk Management

Subsea Pipeline Integrity and Risk Management

Challenges to Risk Management of Underground Transmission Hazardous Material Pipelines in China

Rapid urbanization in China has potentially caused increasing risks to underground transmission hazardous material (hazmat) pipelines, significantly impacting on public safety. Challenges to risk management of underground transmission hazmat pipelines in China were analyzed from the aspects of dangerous characteristics of underground pipelines accidents, the harsh situation of hidden dangers and the rectification difficulties. According to the data collected from authoritative sources, 170 underground transmission hazmat pipelines accidents in China between 2007 and 2013 were investigated statistically. The characteristics of accidents were analyzed from the aspects of the annual total quantity of accidents, the total casualty toll of accidents, and general causes and consequences of accidents, which illustrated the growing trend of potential accidents risk recent years. Besides, according to the survey results of the nationwide inspection on hidden dangers in transmission hazmat pipelines, 29436 hidden dangers, including 19072 hidden dangers with ground surface occupation, 9171 with inadequate safety distance, 8293 with irregular cross-laying or across, were revealed, and the essential problems of eliminating them were pointed out specifically. Furthermore, the underlying causes that lead to the challenges to risk management of underground hazmat pipelines are analyzed in detail, i.e., ineffective implementation of integrity management programs, unclear administration responsibility, limitations of current code and standard, disparity of risk assessment approaches, deficiency of pipeline failure information management. Finally, based on the cause analysis, suggestions and countermeasures for risk management of underground transmission hazmat pipelines were put forward, which will offer significant insight into hazmat pipeline accident prevention.

Statistical Analysis of Pitting Corrosion Field Data and Their Use for Realistic Reliability Estimations in Non-Piggable Pipeline Systems

The reliability and risk of non-piggable, corroding oil and gas pipelines can be estimated from historical failure data and through reliability models based on the assumed or measured number of corrosion defects and defect size distribution. In this work, an extensive field survey carried out in an upstream gathering pipeline system in Southern Mexico is presented. It has helped determine realistic values for the number of corrosion defects per kilometer (defect density) and obtain a better description of the corrosion defect size distributions in this system. To illustrate the impact that these new corrosion data can have on pipeline risk management, a reliability study is also presented where the field-gathered corrosion data have been used as input to a reliability framework for the estimation of the failure index of non-piggable pipelines and pipeline systems when different amounts of corrosion data are available.

Risk Assessment of City Pipe Network Based on Matter-Element and Extension Model

Obtain the weight of risk factors at all levels based on AHP analysis model,optimize the third edition of Pipeline Risk Management Manual to establish a new index system.Bring in the matter-element and extension model,according to the established index system and expert scoring results , calculate the correlation function values of each risk characteristics to each of the risk levels,using the figures to reach the risk level of the city pipeline.Through living example shows that this evaluation method is correct.Compared with the general evaluation method,the matter-element and extension analysis model overall consider the weight of the risk factors,expert score and the grade index system.This evaluation method is more accurate compared with the general evaluation.

Multi-Factor and Polymorphism Failure Probability Calculation for Natural Gas Pipelines

A Bayesian network quantitative calculation model for urban natural gas pipelines was established by using the unique logic of a Bayesian network in handling complicated risk systems. By using a natural gas pipeline as an example, failure situations such as single factor polymorphism, double factor polymorphism, and multi-factor polymorphism of a pipeline were quantitatively calculated to obtain the probability of top events and the structural importance of basic factors. The proposed method not only reflects clearly the effects of different factors but also predicts the failure state of urban natural gas pipelines comprehensively and accurately. The results of the proposed method can serve as a significant reference for the risk management and fault processing of city natural gas pipelines.

The Deformation Detection Method for the Buried Pipeline Based on Distributed Fiber Optic Sensor

The deformation of the long-distance pipeline often happen due to the Soil collapse, gulch and the settlement of the foundation etc. The large deformation is easy to cause the fracture of the long-distance pipeline. Hence, the deformation detection is of very important to the pipeline safety. In this paper, a method for deformation calculation of the long-distance pipeline is presented based on the relation expression brtween the deformation and the strain of the long-distance pipelien. Through the measured strain, the deformation is easy to be calculated. The strains can be obtained through the FBG sensors or distributed fiber optic sensors. The deformation detection method proposed in the papaer provides the basis of the long-distance pipeline risk management.

Assigning priorities to actions in a pipeline transporting hydrogen based on a multicriteria decision model

Nowadays there is a pressing need to implement changes in the global energy structure, such that it incorporates new features and changes the way that we use fossil fuels. In this scenario, hydrogen is projected as the fuel of the future. Among the possible modes that can be used for its transportation, the pipeline is singled out as it is the safest and the most economically viable means of transporting large quantities of the gas. However, accidents to pipelines have been recorded and they often result in catastrophic consequences for society. In this context, this paper proposes novelties in multidimensional risk assessment for the transportation of hydrogen by pipeline. Thus, a multicriteria decision model is proposed, using multiattribute utility theory, which incorporates the behavior of a decision maker and considers three dimensions of risk assessment: the human, financial and environmental dimensions. By taking these into consideration, the decision maker may well get precious and differentiated information about the risk management of pipelines.

Comprehensive risk assessment and management of petrochemical feed and product transportation pipelines

Complete information is needed for comprehensive risk assessment and management of pipelines. However, obtaining information using quantitative risk assessment (QRA) (probabilistic model) is not readily possible. Thus, in this research, using probabilistic and indexing models, an algorithm is developed, which overcomes most of the limitations of the models, and is an appropriate technique for the comprehensive risk assessment and management of pipelines. For this reason, 60 feed and product pipelines of the Mahshahr Petrochemical complexes were evaluated and chlorine pipeline was selected based on high-hazard distances for risk analysis. Furthermore, the relative risk indices were also determined in all parts of the pipeline. The failure rate of the pipeline was assessed on the basis of different failure causes. Heavy Gas Dispersion Model developed by ALOHA software was used for the consequence analysis of chlorine gas in different concentrations. Subsequently, the results of the relative risk assessment indices were used as an adjusting factor to correct the pipeline failure rate and to develop an algorithm for the comprehensive risk assessment technique. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the algorithm was carried out. The present algorithm enables the identification of most of the pipeline failure causes. Application of historical incident data is not only important in risk management and emergency response plans, but is also helpful in evaluating the risk by using acceptable risk criterion, such as “as low as reasonably practicable” (ALARP).

Expansion of Existing Monitoring System on Great Man-Made River Project Using Acoustic Fibre Optic Technology

Acoustic monitoring has played a major role in the management of one of the world's largest civil engineering projects. After experiencing failures on their pipeline between 1999 and 2001, the Great Man-Made River Authority (GMRA) undertook an aggressive condition assessment program. This program led to the development of a comprehensive Pipeline Risk Management System (PRMS), making the Great Man-Made River Project one of the best managed pipelines in the world. The planned expansion of the existing acoustic monitoring system, a key component of the PRMS, will allow for monitoring of over 700km of pipeline. This paper will discuss steps taken to-date, the acoustic monitoring technology and the expansion of this key component to the management strategy for the pipeline.

Geospatial informatics applications for assessment of pipeline safety and security

A variety of advanced technologies are available to enhance planning, designing, managing, operating and maintaining the components of the electric utility system. Aerial and satellite remote sensing represents one area of rapid development that can be leveraged to address some of these challenges. Airborne remote sensing can be an effective technology to assist pipeline risk management to assure safety in design, construction, operation, maintenance, and emergency response of pipeline facilities. Industrial and scientific advances in airborne and satellite remote sensing systems and data processing techniques are opening new technological opportunities for developing an increased capability of accomplishing the pipeline mapping and safety needs of the industry. These technologies have significant and unique potential for application to a number of cross cutting energy system security issues. This paper addresses some of the applications of these technologies to pipeline and power industry infrastructure, economics and relative effectiveness of these technologies and issues related to technology implementation and diffusion.

Performance and Risk Management of Irrigation Pipelines

Performance and Risk Management of Irrigation Pipelines

Asset planning for water reticulation systems - the PARMS model

Traditionally water reticulation systems have been operated so that pipeline repair/renewal occurs on a reactive basis, based upon the number of failures, the consequence of failure and the cost. Planning for future replacements and the costs associated with these has been based upon a best guess of pipe lifetimes, which have generally been very conservative, when compared to the actual pipe life obtained. Factors such as the required level of customer service, trade-offs between repair and renewal, or operating practices such as pressure reduction or shut-off block reduction have not been widely considered, except when they are required under the water authorities operating licence. To allow long-term strategies to be implemented for the repair/renewal of water pipelines, a Pipeline Asset and Risk Management System (PARMS) is being developed. This planning model has been designed to allow a range of “what if” scenarios to be analysed to determine their effects on water authorities’ long-term costs. This model is based upon whole of life costing and includes data on externality and customer impact costs. It analyses the failures of individual pipe assets, rather than the traditional practice of predicting failure of pipe cohorts, currently used by many authorities. This paper discusses the application of the PARMS planning model to allow selection of pipeline repair/renewal, and briefly analyses the influences that a range of customer service or operating decisions can have on a water authority’s capital and operational expenditure.