Risk Management Mechanism Research Articles

A Framework for Upgrading Contaminated Urban Land and Soil by Nature-Based Solutions: Demonstration with a Swedish Case

To move towards a circular economy and to meet the upcoming EU soil health legislation, both contaminated land and contaminated soil should be acknowledged as fragile and valuable resources to be restored and recycled to provide essential ecosystem services to humans. Underused, often contaminated land can be returned to beneficial use as urban greenspace (UGS) with the help of gentle remediation options (GROs). GROs are plant-, fungi-, bacteria-, and soil amendments-based risk management mechanisms that can also simultaneously improve soil functions and the provision of ecosystem services. This study (i) presents a framework including tools and methods for exploring opportunities for transforming brownfields to UGS using GROs to deal with soil contamination, (ii) demonstrates its application for a case study site in Gothenburg, Sweden, and (iii) presents stakeholders’ views on the suggested framework. This framework can support the transition of brownfields to UGS while recycling both land and soil and increasing the market value of the site and its surroundings. Stakeholders found the suggested framework useful but identified some challenges for its practical implementation, mainly associated with financial aspects and the existing practice and level of knowledge. Stakeholders also identified the need for additional practical tools to (a) make predictions about the time required for GROs to reach acceptable risk levels, (b) monetize non-market benefits such as ecosystem services for communicating benefits to decision-makers, and (c) provide support for plant and soil amendment selection for various GROs and contaminants.

Price Volatility and Cereal Food Security in Tunisia: Determining the Critical Threshold of Cereal Price Volatility Using the Threshold Model

This study examines the substantial impact of grain price volatility on food security in Tunisia, a nation heavily reliant on cereal consumption. Employing Hansen's (1999) threshold model, we pinpoint the precise level of price volatility that poses a significant threat to cereal food security in Tunisia. A novel application of this methodology, our analysis, spanning 1991-2021, focuses on cereals, constituting over 50% of Tunisia's food imports. The threshold model identifies a critical volatility threshold of 4.65%. Beyond this point, food security is significantly compromised. This finding underscores the study's capacity to quantify the precise level of grain price volatility that exacerbates food security risks in Tunisia. To mitigate these risks, policymakers should prioritize price stabilization measures, enhance risk management and storage mechanisms, and develop targeted adaptation strategies for vulnerable populations. These actions will bolster the resilience of the Tunisian food system.

Technological sovereignty as a factor of competitiveness of oil and gas companies of the Russian Federation

Aim. To investigate the importance of technological sovereignty for strengthening the competitive positions of Russian oil and gas companies.Objectives. To identify the key factors that determine the level of technological independence of oil and gas companies; to assess how these factors affect their ability to compete successfully at the national and international levels.Methodology. The research uses general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis using a systematic approach.Results. The essence of technological independence as a factor in the development of competitiveness of companies in the oil and gas sector was analyzed. The assumption is formulated that the achievement of technological sovereignty allows companies to mitigate risks arising from external factors, including international sanctions and restrictions on access to advanced foreign technologies. Several strategic initiatives have been proposed to strengthen the technological sovereignty of the domestic oil and gas industry: training of highly qualified personnel, introduction of tax incentives and subsidies from the state for companies, creation of special economic zones or technology parks, protection of intellectual property and support for patent activity.Conclusions. Technological independence is the most effective method in the context of the struggle of Russian industrial companies against external challenges: sanctions and changes in global energy markets. The development of national technologies in the oil and gas sector due to the synergetic effect has a positive impact on strengthening the competitive advantages of Russian national companies in both domestic and international markets. In order to ensure technological sovereignty, special attention should be paid to the development of strategic risk management mechanisms, as well as effective communication models between the state, industry, and science.

The economic security of a commercial corporation as a principle of corporate law

The article considers the economic security of a commercial corporation as a principle of corporate law, formulates its concept and main features. The necessity of institutionalization of this principle in corporate law to improve the sustainability and competitiveness of companies is emphasized. The interests of the corporation in the context of their priority importance for corporate governance and resolution of corporate disputes are considered. The specificity of threats to economic security depending on the organizational and legal form and public or non-public status of the company is proved. The necessity of development of corporate responsibility according to the restitutive model with simultaneous development of legislation and practice of application of retributive measures has been substantiated. The article analyzes Russian and foreign experience and emphasizes the importance of integration of private and public legal mechanisms for effective risk management and threat prevention.

УПРАВЛІННЯ РИЗИКАМИ ДОРОЖНЬОГО БУДІВНИЦТВА

The development of the road network plays a key role in the social, economic and environmental development of a country, region cities. A key aspect for achieving the set goals and ensuring the sustainability and efficiency of road construction projects is the management of risks that arise during project planning and execution. The purpose of the work is the research and classification of risks that arise during the implementation of road construction projects, the formation of a risk management system and the search for ways to minimize their negative consequences. The paper proposes a road construction risk management mechanism, the main purpose of which is to ensure the successful implementation of the road construction project, taking into account all possible risks that may affect the process of its implementation and results. The classification of road construction risks by origin, nature, stages of the project, impact on participants, scale, which will ensure the identification of potential risks, the probability of their occurrence and the establishment of the scale of consequences from their impact, is considered. The successful implementation of road construction projects is ensured by measures to minimize the negative consequences of the impact of risks. The authors identified the main areas of risk minimization during road construction, including detailed planning, risk analysis, use of technologies and innovations, reserve time planning, quality control, stakeholder participation, insurance, environmental management, creation of reserve funds, contingency scenario or plans. A contingency scenario of risk minimization in road construction is proposed, which makes it possible to define measures and strategies for the active management of risks that may arise during a road construction project. A contingency scenario allows you to prepare for unforeseen circumstances and negative events that may occur during the implementation of a road construction project. The application of this scenario is absolutely necessary in cases where there is a high probability of the occurrence of specific risks or when these risks can have a serious impact on the project

ПРОБЛЕМИ ТА ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ СТРАХУВАННЯ ТУРИСТИЧНОЇ ДІЯЛЬНОСТІ

The article discusses the types of insurance in tourism. Based on the analysis of the insurance market of Ukraine, it was established that the number of insurance companies decreased by almost three times during the years 2015-2022, and 25 insurance companies worked in the field of tourism in 2023. It was revealed that the following companies are the leaders in the travel insurance market: European Travel Insurance, ARX, VUSO, PZU Ukraine. The factors that hold back the development of tourism insurance are highlighted: military actions due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, political instability; decrease in the number of tourists, low solvency of the population; imperfect legal framework; poor awareness of the population in the field of tourism insurance; public distrust of insurance companies; a narrow range of insurance services in the field of tourism insurance; incomplete and untimely fulfillment of obligations to policyholders; limited scope of insurance protection due to reduction of insurance prices by insurers; decrease in the quality of insurance products; insufficient professional level of insurance company specialists; overall low development of the country's insurance market. The main trends in the field of insurance in Ukraine are revealed: individual policies for certain tourist segments, use of artificial intelligence, transformation of products into the format of electronic policies, blockchain technologies. Directions for solving problems in the field of insurance in tourism are indicated: improvement of the regulatory and legal framework; ensuring political stability, increasing economic development in the state; training of highly qualified personnel in the field of insurance; improvement of insurance culture; creation of protective mechanisms for tourists; assistance from the state to the development of the insurance market in Ukraine; improvement of the risk management mechanism; increasing public trust in insurance companies; expanding the list of insurance services and improving their quality.

“Volatility in a Mug Cup”: Spillovers among cocoa, coffee, sugar futures and the role of climate policy risk

Hot beverages have surged in popularity due to the increasing emphasis on healthy living among consumers. This trend extends upstream to prosper futures markets for essential raw materials within the supply chain. However, there is a significant gap in the literature concerning volatility spillovers within these futures markets, specifically cocoa, coffee, and sugar futures. Given the susceptibility of these raw material agricultural productions to weather conditions, an intriguing question emerges regarding the potential impact of climate policy uncertainty on the volatility spillover dynamics of these commodity prices. This study employs the TVP-VAR-DY methodology to quantify volatility spillovers among global mainstream cocoa, coffee, and sugar futures, then the Time-Varying Granger Causality test is deployed to uncover the influence of climate policy uncertainty. The findings underscore a pronounced and statistically significant spillover effect among the volatilities of coffee-related commodity futures, with the U.S. sugar futures market emerging as a pivotal conduit for risk transmission. In exploring the impact of climate policy uncertainty, it is discerned that global climatic patterns exert some unique and substantive influence on systemic risk spillovers. These insights provide a basis for stakeholders in the hot drink industrial chain to think about effective risk management mechanisms.

Risk management technology in the public sector: challenges and opportunities

The paper examines the importance of using effective risk management methods in the public sector, emphasizing the need for an integrated approach to this problem. The author emphasizes that public management mechanisms must be supported by appropriate technologies to ensure sustainable functioning. The use of ISO 31000 and ISSAI 9100 standards helps structure the risk management process and increase its effectiveness. Risk management should be based on the identification, assessment and response to risks and take into account the influence of various factors on the risk management process. The author also notes that risk management in the public sector is complicated by certain factors (frequent management changes, division of operating budgets and programs, lack of clear risk indicators, etc.). The analysis of the issue demonstrates that the system of assessment, management and risk reduction should play a key role in public administration. The main task of risk management as an element of public management is to make effective decisions, create the necessary conditions and plan actions taking risks into account to minimize their negative impact on planned results. As a result of the use of risk management technologies, it is possible to identify risks, determine factors and sources of risk, assess the degree and probability of occurrence of hazards and, ultimately, develop an optimal plan of management actions. The results of the study demonstrate that the issue of forming a risk management mechanism in the public sector requires further scientific research on the application of theoretical developments in the practical activities of public management and administration bodies of Ukraine. The paper also focuses on the issue of risk management in public sector organizations, and concludes that in order to assess the value, type and impact of risk, it is necessary to review the internal part of the organization and its management processes, as well as its environment. Such a review of risks should be complemented by increased risk awareness at each level of the management hierarchy and in the day-to-day activities of all employees of the organization. Thus, the need to use modern risk management technologies in the public sector is outlined in order to increase the effectiveness of the decisions made and minimize the negative impact of potential risks on the results of the work of management bodies.

CONSENSUAL TERMS MODIFYING CONTRACTUAL LIABILITY IN THE LIGHT OF UAE LAW: A COMPARATIVE STUDY WITH FRENCH LAW

Background: In the context of UAE law, this study explores the legitimacy and application of terms that modify contractual liability, drawing a comparative analysis with French law. Contractual terms are essential in shaping agreements, reflecting the parties' expectations and strategies for managing future risks. Since the 19th century, these terms have evolved significantly due to industrial growth and an increase in civil liability disputes. They are designed to limit or exclude a party's liability in the event of a contract breach, offering a mechanism for risk management and economic cost estimation. The paper differentiates between terms that directly address liability and those pertaining to the initiation of liability lawsuits. It examines various clauses, including guarantee clauses, terms that reduce liability, and penal clauses that establish fixed compensation amounts to incentivise contract performance. Additionally, contemporary legal frameworks, including both French and UAE laws, increasingly impose restrictions on contractual freedom to protect vulnerable parties, such as consumers and employees, by prohibiting certain terms and granting judges the authority to invalidate unfair clauses. The study analyses UAE legal texts in comparison with French jurisprudence to clarify the UAE legislator's perspective on the legitimacy of terms. Methods: This study aims to conduct a comparative analysis of Emirati and French laws on modifying contractual liability by analysing primary and secondary sources such as legal texts, judicial decisions, and commentaries. It examines legislative approaches and judicial interpretations, aiming to identify similarities, differences, and areas for UAE legal reform. Inductive reasoning is used to derive broader principles, assessing the effectiveness and fairness of both legal frameworks and considering key differences and guiding principles. Results and conclusions: To define the parties' rights and responsibilities, the parties must agree upon clear and explicit terms that define the damage scope, compensation limits, and exceptions to the contract. Even though these terms are common and regulated, the courts play a significant role in interpreting them, posing legal challenges when unclear. In the UAE, the Civil Transactions Law permits such terms under contractual freedom but lacks clarity on their legality, leaving judicial discretion under Article 206. Other UAE laws explicitly invalidate these terms, aligning with international standards. Post-2016, French law also invalidates terms that remove essential obligations. It is recommended that the UAE legislator clarify its stance on these terms within civil transactions, aligning with other UAE laws, to clearly specify what conditions are acceptable.

Problems and Countermeasures of Apple Agricultural Products Futures Market in China

In recent years, the improvement of quality and efficiency of national economy and agricultural modernization have directly promoted the innovative development of apple industry in China. At the end of 2017, the first Apple futures in China was born, and then the scale of Apple trading market continued to expand, and the standardization of Apple futures trading market increased year by year, which directly promoted the adjustment and upgrading of Apple industry. However, the development of Apple futures market lags behind the current situation of spot market development, and the imperfect risk management system, low internationalization level of Apple futures, imperfect laws and regulations of Apple futures market and chaos of market speculators still need to be solved urgently. In order to promote the rapid development of China's apple futures market, it is important to improve the trading system of bulk agricultural products; Strengthen the risk management mechanism; Strengthen international market cooperation and exchanges; Revise and improve the relevant laws and regulations of the Apple Futures Market and improve the level of market standardization; Take measures to limit speculation.

Організаційно-економічний механізм управління ризиками підприємства в умовах цифровізації

The article examines the current challenges and risks faced by Ukrainian enterprises in the context of digitalization and external environmental uncertainty. The article aims to substantiate the organizational and economic mechanism for managing enterprise risks in the conditions of digitalization. This study highlights risks related to cybersecurity, technological changes, the impact of military actions, market competition, and more. The research justifies the need to create an effective risk management mechanism to ensure enterprises’ sustainable development and adaptation to the challenges of the modern economy and digitalization. An analysis of contemporary approaches to defining the concepts of “risk” and “risk management,” presented in domestic and foreign sources, has revealed the key elements of risk management mechanisms. It was found that the concept of “risk” is characterized by critical aspects such as probability, negative consequences in the form of losses, potential positive outcomes, and benefits. In contrast, risk management should be viewed as preventing unforeseen events in the company’s operations, ensuring continuous control, and mitigating consequences when they occur. It is substantiated that the risk management process is continuous and systematic and includes monitoring and assessing risks at all levels of enterprise activity. The study presents an organizational and economic mechanism for risk management in enterprises under digitalization conditions, which, unlike existing models, considers the digitalization of economic processes in the enterprise, covers critical components such as personnel, legal, informational and digital, analytical, organizational, financial, and investment support, and is multi-component, systematic, and governed by its principles. The mechanism’s practical value lies in the effective interaction of its elements, which allows enterprises to identify and minimize risks promptly, maintain stability, and promote sustainable development. The research revealed the importance of integrating digital tools into the risk management process, which enhances decision-making efficiency and minimizes negative consequences. Keywords: risk, risk management, organizational and economic mechanism of risk management, risk management, digitalization of the economy, cyber risks.

Research on the Sustainable Development of Green Finance in Hainan Free Trade Port under the Dual Carbon Goals

Against the backdrop of global climate change, the Chinese government has proposed the ambitious goals of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" (dual carbon goals). As an important part of the national strategy, Hainan Free Trade Port plays a key role in its sustainable development through green finance. This study aims to explore the connotation, current status, and challenges of green finance in Hainan Free Trade Port under the dual carbon goals, and propose strategies and paths to promote its sustainable development. The study finds that a sound policy environment, innovative financial products and services, specialized talent cultivation, and effective evaluation and risk management mechanisms are key factors for achieving the sustainable development of green finance in Hainan Free Trade Port.

Tác động của hoạt động ngân hàng ngầm đến mức độ chấp nhận rủi ro tại các ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam

Engaging in shadow banking activities may result in significant risks for banks and increase systematic risk as well. If the risk level is too high, it can lead to contagion to other banks. Therefore, the impact of shadow banking activities on risk-taking in Vietnam commercial banks needs to be clarified in the context of volatile financial markets. This article employs secondary data collected from the annual audited financial reports of 31 Vietnamese commercial banks and the World Bank database from 2010 to 2022. Regression results using the two-step system generalized moment estimation method show that participating in shadow banking activities will increase the risk-taking level of banks. Therefore, Vietnam commercial banks should be cautious when participating in shadow banking activities; the State Bank of Vietnam should issue specific regulations on disclosing information related to shadow banking activities as well as have a risk management and control mechanism for these activities to ensure the safety of the banking system’s operations.

Mutual insurance risks

The article considers the risk status of mutual insurance organizations. The growing popularity of mutual insurance among representatives of the field of material production, carriers, tourism business and other market participants, on the one hand, and the widespread opinion about the increased stability of the activities of a mutual insurance organization, on the other hand, sets the task of determining the risk status of a mutual insurance company, which will make it possible to formulate the main directions of risk–oriented regulation of such organizations. According to the author, the mutual insurance organization is subject to a significant number of various risks of risks, both event and economic and social. It is suggested that at least the following risk groups are inherent in a mutual insurance organization: risks due to the nature of insurance; risks arising from reciprocity as a technology; market risks of the mutual insurance organization; risks of an individual participant in mutual insurance in the part affecting the interests of the functioning of mutual insurance. Analysis of these risk groups makes it possible to come to the conclusion that the risk management of mutual insurance organizations should be built differently for organizations uniting individuals or large legal entities. For mutual companies of individuals, it is necessary to provide for built–in risk management mechanisms; for mutual societies that unite legal entities, risk management should be systemic and combine both the risks of the organization and its participants (enterprises).

A Survey on Artificial Intelligence in Cybersecurity for Smart Agriculture: State-of-the-Art, Cyber Threats, Artificial Intelligence Applications, and Ethical Concerns

Wireless sensor networks and Internet of Things devices are revolutionizing the smart agriculture industry by increasing production, sustainability, and profitability as connectivity becomes increasingly ubiquitous. However, the industry has become a popular target for cyberattacks. This survey investigates the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in improving cybersecurity in smart agriculture (SA). The relevant literature for the study was gathered from Nature, Wiley Online Library, MDPI, ScienceDirect, Frontiers, IEEE Xplore Digital Library, IGI Global, Springer, Taylor & Francis, and Google Scholar. Of the 320 publications that fit the search criteria, 180 research papers were ultimately chosen for this investigation. The review described advancements from conventional agriculture to modern SA, including architecture and emerging technology. It digs into SA’s numerous uses, emphasizing its potential to transform farming efficiency, production, and sustainability. The growing reliance on SA introduces new cyber threats that endanger its integrity and dependability and provide a complete analysis of their possible consequences. Still, the research examined the essential role of AI in combating these threats, focusing on its applications in threat identification, risk management, and real-time response mechanisms. The survey also discusses ethical concerns such as data privacy, the requirement for high-quality information, and the complexities of AI implementation in SA. This study, therefore, intends to provide researchers and practitioners with insights into AI’s capabilities and future directions in the security of smart agricultural infrastructures. This study hopes to assist researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in harnessing AI for robust cybersecurity in SA, assuring a safe and sustainable agricultural future by comprehensively evaluating the existing environment and future trends.

REFLECTIONS ON MITIGATION OF RISKS IN ADMINISTRATIVE CONTRACTS IN THE FACE OF PUBLIC CALAMITY SITUATIONS AND THE INSTITUTE OF LEGAL RECOVERY

This article aims to reflect on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Brazilian public contractual relations, focusing on the following aspects: i) the institute of judicial recovery, as a legal instrument to assist institutions that were unable to recover the financial crisis; ii) government risk management mechanisms that mitigate the impact of such events on the management of public accounts. In this sense, at the same time, it points out the business difficulties left by the pandemic and their relationship with the legislation currently in force, with the main focus being the Judicial Recovery and Bankruptcy law and the Strategic Management of Government Risks. Qualitative research methods were used, based on the documentary data collection instrument and data processing: content analysis. The research results indicate the need to change the legislation in question, in order to enable the judicial recovery mechanism to be improved and integrity and risk management practices to be better developed in the strategic management of the public sector.

Relationship between Financial Risk Exposure and Non-Performing Loans of Commercial Banks in Kenya

Currently, there is a financial crisis affecting commercial banks in Kenya occasioned by high levels of loan loss provision as a result of Non-Performing Loans. The past decade has seen the collapse of major banks like Chase Bank among others. This trend on Non-Performing Loans of the institutions requires urgent measures to reverse failure to which the entire sector is likely to collapse, and customers would lose a significant amount of their deposits. This study sought to investigate the effect of credit risk and liquidity risk on non-performing loans (NPLs) of commercial banks in Kenya and appraise the moderating effect of firm age on the relationship between financial risk exposure on non-performing loans of commercial banks in Kenya. The study was underpinned by liquidity preference theory. The examination adopted a positivist paradigm guided by explanatory research design. The study targeted 40 commercial banks as the unit of analysis while branch managers, operations and risk managers were the units of observation drawn from the banks adding to 120 respondents and census was used. The study collected both primary data using structured questionnaire on the independent variable and secondary data from publications by Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) and respective banks and the same was analyzed through the statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) version 26 in a descriptive and inferential manner. The study established that credit risk (p<0.05) and liquidity risk (p<0.05) were all found to have significant effect on NPLs of commercial banks in Kenya and significantly moderated by their sizes. It was concluded that financial risk exposure has significant effect on NPLs of commercial banks in Kenya. It was recommended that finance manages working in commercial banks in Kenya to balance the investment in short term and long-term assets to maintain operational liquidity levels for better management of liquidity risks. Credit managers working for commercial banks in Kenya need to review the existing credit risk management efforts and mechanisms to minimize exposure to NPLs.

Mitigating Catastrophic Events: Assessing the Effectiveness of Reinsurance Risk Management Mechanisms

Mitigating Catastrophic Events: Assessing the Effectiveness of Reinsurance Risk Management Mechanisms

Roles and responsibilities of stakeholders involved in local-level flood risk management: a study in the Deduru Oya basin in Sri Lanka

PurposeDisasters are occurring worldwide, and Sri Lanka has also become a victim of multiple disasters. Though there is a disaster management mechanism from the national level to the local level in Sri Lanka, several gaps are identified in pre- and postdisaster management activities. Among them, the responsibilities of local-level stakeholders in flood management activities are not performing at a satisfactory level. Therefore, the flood damage from the previous events was too great. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to assess the roles, responsibilities and performance of stakeholders involved in local-level flood risk management activities.Design/methodology/approachThe Deduru Oya basin in Sri Lanka was selected as the study area. The study hypothesized that “ineffective roles, responsibilities and performance of local level stakeholders have weakened the flood risk management in the Deduru Oya basin.” The stratified random sampling method selected the sample (n = 425) from the flood-vulnerable population. Primary data were collected through a questionnaire survey, key informant interviews and field observations. Secondary data were collected from reports, work plans, journal papers and published maps. Descriptive data analysis methods and thematic data analysis methods were used in the study.FindingsAbout 69% of the respondents state that they are not satisfied with the involvement of government agencies in local-level flood risk management activities, while 10% of the respondents state that they are satisfied. The thematic analysis reveals several gaps, such as the lack of reservations in the Deduru Oya, improper land use practices, no inundation areas are identified and mapped out and the effects of illegal sand mining in the Deduru Oya. In addition to that, the lack of legal power vested in local governments in disaster management and the weaknesses of current legislation on flood risk management are the other major courses of local-level ineffectiveness.Research limitations/implicationsThe current research was limited to studying the involvement of local-level stakeholders in flood risk management, but the involvement of subnational and national-level stakeholders should be studied in future research.Originality/valueThis paper examines the involvement of local-level stakeholders in flood risk management. The results of the study confirm that the roles and responsibilities of local-level stakeholders are not well-defined and mandated, and therefore, the performance of stakeholders involved is minimal. Therefore, the results highlight the need for a well-established community-based flood risk management mechanism.

Consumer Default Risk Portrait: An Intelligent Management Framework of Online Consumer Credit Default Risk

Online consumer credit services play a vital role in the contemporary consumer market. To foster their sustainable development, it is essential to establish and strengthen the relevant risk management mechanism. This study proposes an intelligent management framework called the consumer default risk portrait (CDRP) to mitigate the default risks associated with online consumer loans. The CDRP framework combines traditional credit information and Internet platform data to depict the portrait of consumer default risks. It consists of four modules: addressing data imbalances, establishing relationships between user characteristics and the default risk, analyzing the influence of different variables on default, and ultimately presenting personalized consumer profiles. Empirical findings reveal that “Repayment Periods”, “Loan Amount”, and “Debt to Income Type” emerge as the three variables with the most significant impact on default. “Re-payment Periods” and “Debt to Income Type” demonstrate a positive correlation with default probability, while a lower “Loan Amount” corresponds to a higher likelihood of default. Additionally, our verification highlights that the significance of variables varies across different samples, thereby presenting a personalized portrait from a single sample. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides valuable suggestions and insights for financial institutions and Internet platform managers to improve the market environment of online consumer credit services.