Related Risk Management Research Articles

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Comprehensive identification and risk assessment of regulated and emerging mycotoxins in infant foods and related raw materials and risk management advice: A case study of an infant food company in China

This study evaluated muti-mycotoxins in 199 samples including processed infant foods and raw materials collected randomly from an infant food company and assessed their role in dietary exposure in infants and young children via probabilistic risk assessment. Approximately 79.6 % (74/93) of the processed infant foods and 65.1 % (69/106) of the raw materials were contaminated by mycotoxins, with a mean occurrence level of 3.66–321.8 µg/kg. Deoxynivalenol (DON) and tenuazonic acid (TeA) were the more prevalent mycotoxins detected, based on their higher frequencies and levels across samples. Co-occurrence of more than two mycotoxins was detected in 61.3 % (57/93) of the processed infant foods and 53.8 % (57/106) of the raw materials. Wheat flour and derived products (e.g., infant noodles and infant biscuits) were contaminated with higher contamination levels and a greater variety of mycotoxins than other samples (e.g., infant cereal and rice grains). The estimated daily exposure to OTA, DON, ZEN, and TEN was lower than the corresponding reference health-based guidance values, indicating acceptable health risks. However, the estimated dietary exposure to alternariol monomethyl ether (AME), alternariol (AOH), and tenuazonic acid (TeA) exceeded the corresponding thresholds of toxicological concern values, indicating potential dietary intake risks. Among the various samples, cereals and cereal-based infant foods emerged as the primary contributors to mycotoxin exposure. Further research is advised to address the uncertainties surrounding the toxicity associated with emerging Alternaria mycotoxins and to conduct cumulative risk assessments concerning multiple mycotoxin exposure in infants and young children.

Social vulnerability assessment under different extreme precipitation scenarios: A case study in Henan Province, China.

Extreme precipitation usually cause grievous losses&casualties, which varies greatly under different scenarios. This paper took Henan province as an example, it innovatively constructed three different extreme precipitation scenarios and built indicators system of social vulnerability from exposure, sensitivity and resilience based on MOVE framework. Social Vulnerability Indexs(SoVI) were then calculated by mathematical models under three different reoccurrence intervals. The results show that SoVI was low in the west and high in the north. High SoVI areas expanded to the middle and south as recurrence intervals increased. SoVI in each area of Henan province increased along with the recurrence intervals at different growth rates. The larger the recurrence interval was, the faster the SoVI increased. The results indicate SoVI is greatly affected by disaster levels, which need to be incorporated into social vulnerability. This study provides not only a new thought for social vulnerability assessment, but also a reference for the policymakers to formulate related risk management policies.

Organization of outsourcing activity at Ukrainian enterprises

Introduction. Outsourcing is the best strategy to be ahead of the competition in today's market. Researches indicate that the activity of outsourcing companies is strongly affected by the war, which is relevant for Ukrainian companies. But, despite the fact that the topic of outsourcing activities is actively discussed in the scientific literature, not enough attention is paid to the issue of describing specific stages of the implementation of this activity at enterprises. The purpose of the paper is to determine the most optimal stages of the implementation of outsourcing activities at a Ukrainian enterprise in modern conditions. Results. Because of different problems exists a need to develop appropriate stages of outsourcing activities at Ukrainian enterprises. The first stage shows whether outsourcing is profitable. At the second stage, clear goals for outsourcing are expected to be established. The third stage describes the development of a description of the project, and the fourth stage is the selection of an appropriate outsourcing engagement model. At the fifth stage, the project budget and payment terms are established. The sixth and seventh stages involve planning and appointing an outsourcing manager, who in the eighth stage should send the project description to the relevant firms and review the proposals. The ninth stage is to choose an outsourcing company. At the tenth stage, risks associated with outsourcing are managed. The results and processes of outsourcing activities need to be monitored at the eleventh stage. The twelfth stage includes evaluating and adjusting the outsourcing, and the last stage is the outsourcing report. Conclusion. Outsourcing is a process that delegates some responsibilities and functions of the company to specific service providers. To create a successful outsourcing strategy at Ukrainian enterprises, it is advisable to implement thirteen stages of outsourcing activities. These stages should include the implementation of outsourcing opportunities and the management of related risks. Identifying risks with planned appropriate actions to mitigate them will set the company up for an active response. Understanding the implications of risk will help enterprise to have a control over the outsourcing process.

Modelling citizen participation in apathetic urban communities: suggestions based on Nairobis urban solid waste related flood risk management practices

Modelling citizen participation in apathetic urban communities: suggestions based on Nairobis urban solid waste related flood risk management practices

Modelling citizen participation in apathetic urban communities: suggestions based on Nairobi's urban solid waste related flood risk management practices

Modelling citizen participation in apathetic urban communities: suggestions based on Nairobi's urban solid waste related flood risk management practices

Evaluation of endometrial cancer based on a multidisciplinary team in Sulaimaniyah, Iraq

Background: Using a multidisciplinary team is a natural progression in cancer care, reflecting the gains achieved by many professions and disciplines and the use of various therapeutic modalities and patient support.
 
 Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of endometrial cancer, related risk factors, management, and follow-up before and after multidisciplinary team care (MDTC).
 
 Methods: This cross-sectional observational study was conducted on 186 patients with endometrial cancer confirmed by endometrial biopsy cytology (endometrioid/non-endometrioid type). Patient data on clinical, surgical, pathological, and adjuvant therapies were collected, including age, body mass index (BMI), surgical procedure, nodal staging, and final pathological analysis. Assessment of risk factors and clinical follow-up was done by the MDTC method.
 
 Results: The patient’s age at menstruation was >12 years in 151 (83.9%) patients and <12 years in 29 (16.1%) patients. No significant difference was observed between the two groups in examining cancer and evaluating risk factors. However, the evaluations in the MTC group were associated with minor changes in order to improve and manage risk factors.
 
 Conclusions: The MDTC can be effective in the overall management of endometrial cancer.

Games in a foreign exchange market and solutions

Abstract Exchange rate and its related risk management are too important for main participants in foreign exchange markets. There are many approaches developed in the literature for studying risk management say arbitrage detection, say finding replication portfolio. However, in the current paper, arbitrage opportunities are studied using the game theory perspective. This paper proposes different types of games played in a specified foreign exchange market in the presence of three exchange rates. Proposed games are exchange rate games in two cases of no arbitrage and existence of arbitrage, optimal stopping game, the arbitrage game, threshold strategies used in global game and Non-cooperative exchange rate game. Most of cases, the bang-bang rule of optimal control is used for finding the Nash equilibriums (NE). However, simulated and stochastic approximation (SA) solutions are also given. Most highlights of the current paper are: (I) considering two types of arbitrage opportunities, simultaneously, (II) translating arbitrage detection as game theory concepts, (III) solving the problem using techniques of optimal control theory. Finally concluding remarks are proposed.

Interpretation on Consensus on drug-induced liver injury by CIOMS Working Group:liver injury attributed to herbal and dietary supplements

With the increase in the medical level, the improvement of adverse drug reaction(ADR) monitoring systems, and the enhancement of public awareness of safe medication, drug safety incidents have been frequently reported. Drug-induced liver injury(DILI), especially liver injury attributed to herbal and dietary supplements(HDS), has globally attracted high attention, bringing great threats and severe challenges to the people for drug safety management such as clinical medication and medical supervision. Consensus on drug-induced liver injury had been published by the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences(CIOMS) in 2020. In this consensus, liver injury attributed to HDS was included in a special chapter for the first time. The hot topics, including the definition of HDS-induced liver injury, epidemiological history, potential risk factors, collection of related risk signals, causality assessment, risk prevention, control and management were discussed from a global perspective. Based on the previous works, some experts from China were invited by CIOMS to undertake the compilation of this chapter. Meanwhile, a new causality assessment in DILI based on the integrated evidence chain(iEC) method was widely recognized by experts in China and abroad, and was recommended by this consensus. This paper briefly introduced the main contents, background, and characteristics of the Consensus on drug-induced liver injury. Significantly, a brief interpretation was illustrated to analyze the special highlights of Chapter 8, "Liver injury attributed to HDS", so as to provide practical references for the medical staff and the researchers who worked on either Chinese or Western medicine in China.

RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE CONDITIONS OF GLOBALIZATION ON THEEXAMPLE MACHINE-BUILDING INDUSTRY OF AZERBAIJAN

One of the key processes in the development of the world economy of the 21st century is progressive globalization, i.e. a qualitatively new stage in the development of the internationalization of economic life. The article examines the modern ways of development of the machine-building industry of Azerbaijan in global conditions, as well as the importance of risk management, their assessment and monitoring of the development of machine-building enterprises to increase competitiveness in order to achieve a synergistic effect through integration, increase its efficiency in the development of machine-building enterprises. In turn, all this will allow them to master the latest technologies, increase the return on capital and their competitiveness in global markets. The purpose of the study of this work is to consider the main aspects of the implementation of the concept of risk management by developing ways to increase the effectiveness of risk management in relation to the integration policy of enterprises in the machine-building complex. All areas of economic activity are subject to risk, and risk management improves predictability and certainty, which gives a sense of confidence in certain situations. Keywords: Globalization, engineering industry, economics, risk management.

콜드체인 물류시스템 운용 중소수출기업의 공급망 리스크 관리가 해운물류 효율성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Recently, the size of the global cold chain market is growing. Therefore, the cold chain has increased management risks. The purpose of this study is to identify potential supply chain risk factors that could emerge during the operation of the cold chain logistics system for small and medium-sized export businesses. Additionally, we attempted to comprehend how risk management affected the effectiveness of logistics and shipping.
 Structured questionnaires were distributed from October 11, 2022, to October 28, 2022, focused on lists of randomly chosen member organizations, including the Korea International Trade Association, the Korea Fisheries Trade Association, the Korea Pharmaceutical Bio Association, the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, and the Korea Small and Medium Business Association. As for the survey method, about 225 copies were collected by distributing Google questionnaires online, and a total of 202 copies were used for empirical analysis, excluding 23 insincere copies. For empirical analysis, the Smart PLS statistical package was used to evaluate external measurement models, internal structural model evaluation, and structural equation modeling, focusing on conceptual research models.
 The results of this study are as follows. Among risk factors, low temperature maintenance risk had a negative (-) effect on cold chain risk management, and transportation environment risk and information technology risk had a significant positive (+) effect on cold chain risk management. And risk management was found to have an effect on responsiveness and flexibility in shipping and logistics. This study supplements the contents of previous studies on the risks that small and medium-sized export companies with limited human and financial resources may encounter in the process of operating a cold chain logistics system and examines the causal relationship that related risk management has on shipping logistics efficiency.

Business continuity for times of vulnerability: Empirical evidence

AbstractOrganizations operate in environments of vulnerability. While there are methodologies that guide business continuity management, it is evident that organizations remain vulnerable to disruptions emerging in times of transformation and systemic change. This work aims to compile and analyze the disruptions and related risk management strategies or activities described in the literature, and explore which disruptions are creating concern in companies and how they approach them. The methodology is based on a review of the literature and from the review we define a questionnaire to guide semi‐structured interviews to managers from companies all located in a highly volatile macroeconomic context. The literature describes disruptions related with governance, cyberattacks, technology, supply chain, internal processes, and shock events and both precrises and postcrises strategies. The empirical analysis using data from companies reveals that (a) the most stressful disruptions are the currency devaluation, the high inflation rate, and government interventions and (b) managers rely on collaborative work, effective communication between stakeholders, supportive leadership, and constant adaptation to the new environment. Future research is required on techniques supporting adaptation to ‘new normalcy’.

АДАПТАЦІЙНА МОДЕЛЬ УПРАВЛІННЯ КРЕДИТНИМ РИЗИКОМ ВІДНОСНО ЦІНИ КРЕДИТНИХ РЕСУРСІВ

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the need to use the adaptation function of the relationship between the volume and interest on loans as the basis for credit risk management and building an appropriate model for assessing these processes. The theoretical basis of the study is the scientific works of domestic scientists on the problem under study, the method of analysis and synthesis in the study and generalization of domestic experience in generalizing the price of credit resources as the basis of credit risk management; parametric measurement methods, abstract – logical – in substantiating theoretical generalizations and conclusions. The article conducts studies of credit risk management in relation to the price of credit resources, namely, the application of the function of the relationship between the volume and interest on loans granted, which determines the functional relationship between the analyzed values, which may look different for a certain type of loan granted, may reflect the variation of the share of problem loans weighted by the volume of loans granted, or the rate of their growth during the study period, etc. Such credit risk management in relation to the price of credit resources can be considered as adaptive. The generalization of the price of credit resources as the basis for credit risk management and the construction of an appropriate model for assessing these processes is substantiated, which will allow to objectively analyze different situations in terms of the relationship between the analyzed parameters: the volume of loans granted, the loan rate and the value of credit risk, as well as the absolute volume of problem loans. The adequacy of the built model is possible when using and analyzing the necessary statistical data and the ability to objectively analyze different situations in terms of the relationship of the analyzed parameters. General proposals for credit risk management are considered, the essence of which is to disclose the principles of generalization of the price of credit resources as the basis for credit risk management and the construction of an appropriate model for assessing these processes to improve the efficiency of the bank's credit activities.

Эволюция отношений банка и фирмы

Increasing competition in all sectors of the economy, caused by the accelerated introduction of new technological advances in manufacturing processes, the creation of innovative products and the use of new business models, generates increased uncertainty in the development prospects of each market organization. The natural reaction of many commercial structures is to deepen specialization and competencies in their core activities. The purpose of the study is to identify the circumstances affecting interaction between a company and a bank in the new conditions. The article for the first time examines these relationships from the point of view of the need for each party to improve its own business, which objectively requires closer cooperation between them. Based on the results of the study, the author concludes that strengthening collaboration between a firm and a bank in the field of credit and payment operations and management of related risks is based on pursuit of each party’s own goals and increases the value of each of them. Forms of cooperation between a company and a bank can be different, but the most effective for each organization seems to be a partnership form of relationship, allowing the participants of cooperation to receive the greatest benefits and, at the same time, to strengthen and reinforce their positions in the core activities of each party.

HPB P50 Prediction and Management of Choledocholithiasis in Gallstone Related Disease

Abstract Background Acute cholecystitis, pancreatitis and cholangitis are common presentations to the general surgery on-call shift, the management of which can be complicated by evidence of choledocholithiasis. Risk scoring systems exist to help guide the requirement for further imaging or endoscopy for these patients. Our audit reviewed the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) scoring system for choledocholithiasis prediction and associated management guidelines against current practices at a tertiary hospital to assess how well common practice matches guideline recommendations based on choledocholithiasis risk. Our aim was to assess how current practice for investigation of possible choledocholithiasis interlinks with CBD stone risk scoring systems, whether risk scoring is useful in management of a gallstone related disease risk and if a choledocholithiasis risk prediction tool could optimize resource usage. Methods We retrospectively identified a cohort of patients presenting acutely to the surgical unit over a three-month period with symptoms suggestive of cholecystitis, cholangitis or pancreatitis. Patients were identified from prospectively maintained, electronic records of surgical in-patients and on-call surgical patient lists. Patients meeting local guideline criteria for diagnosis of pancreatitis (serum lipase greater than 3 times the upper limit of normal or CT confirmed pancreatic inflammation) or Tokyo Guidelines 2018 for diagnosis of cholecystitis and cholangitis were included. Those with non-gallstone pathology, previous cholecystectomies and incomplete data were excluded. Patients were categorized into respective risk strata according to the ASGE scoring system and their ongoing management was compared against those guidelines. Subgroup analyses on outcomes and complications for those in each risk strata and in those with age over 55 years of elevated bilirubin as risk factors were also performed. Results 78 patients were identified with 13 categorized as high-risk, 46 intermediate risk and 19 low-risk. 12 of 13 patients (92%) at high risk had evidence of choledocholithiasis on MRCP, CT or USS. 10 of 12 patients (83%) subsequently had a definitive ERCP or preceding cholecystectomy. No low-risk patient had evidence of choledocholithiasis on imaging. 90% of this group have had or are awaiting cholecystectomy. 1 patient, who declined cholecystectomy, re-presented 8 months later with choledocholithiasis. Within the intermediate risk category, there was greater discrepancy in the predictive value of choledocholithiasis. 17 of 46 (37%) patients had an MRCP or EUS with 4 having choledocholithiasis and all going on to have duct clearance. 29 patients (63%) did not have MRCP or EUS, instead receiving either USS, CT or both. 2 patients in this group were unfit for further procedure and received no further imaging, 2 patients had evidence of choledocholithiasis and 25 had no evidence of choledocholithiasis. To date 12 patients have had or are awaiting a cholecystectomy and a further 12 have declined or were not fit for cholecystectomy. 8 patients were stratified as intermediate risk on age >55 alone with no patients having evidence of choledocholithiasis. Conclusions Although based on a small retrospective study, risk prediction using the ASGE scoring tool works effectively in high and low risk patient cohorts, but appears to over predict choledocholithiasis in the intermediate risk group, particularly when based on age alone. Patients with high risk of choledocholithiasis should proceed to duct clearance without further imaging, whilst low risk patients can proceed directly to cholecystectomy. Over investigation dictated by the guidelines for the intermediate risk group is likely to lead to poor compliance as shown in our dataset and may lead to increased burden on imaging services, particularly in hospitals serving more elderly populations.

Crisis Preparedness in the Digital World

This paper discusses the importance of crisis preparedness and the role of financial supervision in mitigating the risks posed by technological innovations in the financial ecosystem. The paper will focus on the important role that financial supervisors and regulators can play in promoting effective risk management, supervision and crisis preparedness in relation to fintech developments, and the need for coordination and collaboration with policymakers, government, and the financial sector to address potential threats to financial stability. It elaborates on the challenges associated with fintech developments in banking and the potential implications for financial supervision and considers the nature of crisis preparedness in the context of banking in the digital era. The paper also provides thoughts on the tools available to supervisory authorities and central banks in dealing with financial crises while enabling new technologies to enhance financial services provisions.

A novel fuzzy multi-factor navigational risk assessment method for ship route optimization in costal offshore wind farm waters

The navigational risk assessment in the waters of offshore wind farms (OWFs) is difficult to be quantified due to multiple factors, to solve this problem, this paper proposes a method of ship navigational risk assessment in the waters of offshore wind farms based on multi-factor fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. First, six influence factors of navigational risk in OWFs waters are analyzed, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and expert evaluation table are applied to determine the weights of influence factors. Then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out to construct the method of navigational risk assessment. Finally, a comprehensive fuzzy multi-factor method of ship navigational risk assessment in OWFs waters is developed. Taking the OWFs in Changle of Fujian Province as an experimental case study, the navigational risk before and after sailing route optimization are comprehensively evaluated, and the evaluation results show that the value of navigational risk decrease from 3.1731 to 2.0409 after the sailing route optimization. At the same time, we have proposed related navigational risk management strategies to reduce the risk of ships in the waters of wind farms based on the risk assessment results, which have important theoretical significance for the ship navigation safety supervision and management of ships in the OWFs waters and the optimization of ship sailing routes in future.

Risk management in innovative pedagogical classrooms

The purpose of risk management is to protect the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) equipment against possible internal and external security breaches. The risk assessment worked with the technique of documentary analysis regarding the risks associated with the installation and equipment of the AIP, also used the survey to collect information through a virtual questionnaire, which was applied to teachers' DAIP in order that they can assess the risk management in relation to the sustainability of ICT equipment. This information made it possible to propose a plan, as well as an evaluation of the computer assets in secure areas and equipment security, obtaining high and very high-risk levels that compromise the functionality of the ICT infrastructure and consequently harm the educational service, so prevention measures were proposed to mitigate the adverse effects.
 Keywords: Computational vulnerability, risk management plan, equipment security.

Differences in Willingness to Undergo BRCA1/2 Testing and Risk Reducing Surgery among the General Public, Cancer Patients, and Healthcare Professionals: A Large Population-Based Survey.

We aimed to understand the decision-making process related to the willingness to undergo BRCA1/2 genetic testing, risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), or risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) among the general public, cancer patients, and healthcare professionals in South Korea. In total, 3444 individuals (1496 from the general public, 1500 cancer patients, 108 clinicians, and 340 researchers) completed a survey addressing genetic testing and related risk management options in a hypothetical scenario. Differences in intent and associated factors for undergoing the above procedures or sharing test results were analyzed. Overall, 67% of participants were willing to undergo BRCA1/2 testing, with proportions of the general public (58%), cancer patients (70%), clinicians (88%), and researchers (90%). The willingness to undergo RRSO was highest among clinicians (58%), followed by among patients (38%), the general public (33%), and researchers (32%) (p < 0.001). Gender, age, education level, and household income were associated with willingness to undergo genetic testing, RRM, and RRSO (p < 0.05). The intent for undergo genetic testing, RRM, and RRSO were affected by many factors. Finally, 69% of the general public intended to share information with family, while this percentage was 92%, 91%, and 94% for patients, clinicians, and researchers, respectively (p < 0.05). These results highlight the requirement for developing targeted educational materials and counseling strategies for facilitating informed decision making.

Healthcare Management During A Pandemic: The Other Side of the Coin for the Treatment of COVID-19 Infection.

World Health Organization (WHO) has increasingly improved the guidelines to tackle the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) among the worldwide population. In this context, each country has introduced specific social, healthcare, political and macroeconomic measures to face COVID pandemic locally. The general aim of this comparative overview is to highlight the most significant effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the main healthcare systems. Also, we critically analyzed the macroeconomic variables and the most promising solutions to improve both healthcare system and its related risk management, taking into specific consideration the most industrialized countries. The main strategy has been built on a renewed concept of the hospital, rebuilding the old concepts of "triage" and "intensive care". Recently, COVID-19 hospitals have allowed to cater the patients affected by COVID-19. The reshaping of several healthcare policies and requirements has led to several positive effects, such as the recruitment of a huge number of human resources in the healthcare systems. Nevertheless, several negative effects have also impacted the communities mostly subjected to infections. Undoubtedly, the national healthcare systems have somehow addressed the people's needs, trying not to neglect the social, healthcare, economic and political aspects. In our overview, we have reported how the different actions taken in the last months, have resulted in different outcomes.