Social vulnerability assessment under different extreme precipitation scenarios: A case study in Henan Province, China.

Abstract

Extreme precipitation usually cause grievous losses&casualties, which varies greatly under different scenarios. This paper took Henan province as an example, it innovatively constructed three different extreme precipitation scenarios and built indicators system of social vulnerability from exposure, sensitivity and resilience based on MOVE framework. Social Vulnerability Indexs(SoVI) were then calculated by mathematical models under three different reoccurrence intervals. The results show that SoVI was low in the west and high in the north. High SoVI areas expanded to the middle and south as recurrence intervals increased. SoVI in each area of Henan province increased along with the recurrence intervals at different growth rates. The larger the recurrence interval was, the faster the SoVI increased. The results indicate SoVI is greatly affected by disaster levels, which need to be incorporated into social vulnerability. This study provides not only a new thought for social vulnerability assessment, but also a reference for the policymakers to formulate related risk management policies.