Risk Management Approach Research Articles

Housing amenity and affordability shape floodplain development

Flood damage has severe and long-term repercussions for households and communities, and continued housing development in floodplains escalates damages over time. Policies and interventions to reduce damage depend on assumptions about housing stock and residents, but assessments of flood exposure to date largely focus on community-scale characteristics at a single point in time, masking potential within-community differences and their evolution through time. We measure residential development in the floodplain nationwide over time to characterize the type and value of U.S. floodplain housing stock and to assess how new development contributes to flood exposure. Over 4M U.S. residences built from 1700 to 2019 (4.8% of all residences built during that time) are located within current regulatory floodplains. These residences are concentrated at the affordable and expensive extremes of the housing value spectrum, reflecting deep differences in the social vulnerability of floodplain residents. Floodplain housing stock often differs substantially from the local market, with coastal floodplains containing relatively expensive housing and inland floodplains containing relatively affordable housing. New housing development has not occurred equally across these contexts. In the past two decades, more floodplain development has occurred in communities with relatively expensive floodplain housing, and mobile home construction in floodplains has slowed. The bifurcated patterns in floodplain housing, across values and geographies, demonstrate the importance of considering the specific population at risk and how it may differ from the broader community when tailoring flood risk management approaches.

Comparison of european surveillance and control programs for Salmonella in broiler and Turkey chains

For the past years, Salmonella has been one of the major foodborne pathogens in Europe, leading to the development of several control efforts to reduce its impact on human health. Poultry meat has been consistently implicated in foodborne cases of salmonellosis. One of the strategies to lessen the burden of salmonellosis in humans was the implementation of national control programs (NCPs) for Salmonella in broilers and turkeys aiming for reductions in these animal populations. In this paper, a description and comparison of the Salmonella surveillance and control programs that are currently implemented for the broiler and turkey chains in different European countries was performed.All the countries studied have set multiple surveillance and control actions for Salmonella at different stages of the broiler and turkey chains, namely the feed, farm and meat levels. Although most of the control programs are aligned with European Union (EU) regulations, some differences were observed, mostly regarding feed controls, farm surveillance schemes, target serovars and the handling of positive flocks. Overall, these differences had a regional pattern, with the Nordic countries having more detailed control programs with a zero-tolerance in meat. The remaining countries generally follow EU legislation, but in some cases, additional specifications were identified by this study.Despite the positive impact of these control programs on the reduction of human cases of salmonellosis, the decreasing tendency has reached a stall. The authors suggest that the NCPs are regularly revised within the framework of risk-based meat assurance systems, and the inclusion of additional target serovars which are simultaneously prevalent in broiler and turkey flocks and relevant in terms of public health within a country or a region. Furthermore, within the revision of NCPs, sampling schemes and strategies need to be consistent, following the risk management approach that has led to very low prevalences of Salmonella in poultry meat in some European countries.

The Stress Index as a Predictor of Mortality in Patients with Isolated Moderate to Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

The Stress Index (SI), calculated as the ratio of blood glucose to serum potassium levels, is a promising prognostic marker in various acute care settings. This study aimed to evaluate the utility of the SI for predicting mortality in patients with isolated moderate-to-severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). This retrospective cohort study included adult trauma patients (aged ≥ 20 years) with isolated moderate to severe TBI (Abbreviated Injury Scale ≥ 3 for only head region) treated from 2009-2022. The SI was computed from the initial glucose and potassium levels upon arrival at the emergency department. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between the SI and mortality after adjusting for relevant covariates. The most effective threshold value of the SI for predicting mortality was identified using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Among the 4357 patients with isolated moderate and severe TBI, 463 (10.6%) died. Deceased patients had a significantly higher SI (61.7 vs. 44.1, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, higher SI independently predicted greater mortality risk (odds ratio (OR) 6.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.66-26.99, p = 0.007). The optimal SI cutoff for predicting mortality was 48.50 (sensitivity 62.0%, specificity 71.4%, area under the curve 0.724). Patients with SI ≥ 48.5 had nearly two-fold higher adjusted mortality odds compared to those below the threshold (adjusted OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.51-2.50, p < 0.001). SI is a useful predictor of mortality in patients with isolated moderate-to-severe TBI. Incorporating SI with standard clinical assessments could enhance risk stratification and management approaches for this patient population.

DEA-driven risk management framework for oil supply chains

This paper develops a comprehensive risk management framework to optimise the Nigerian oil supply chain risk mitigation strategies. Given the complexities of the oil supply chain, this framework aids researchers and decision-makers in navigating innovative risk management approaches and considering the implementation of associated challenges. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is initially employed to prioritise risk factors, and based on obtained results, optimal response strategies are determined. The study's findings reveal that criminality and terrorist attacks are the paramount Nigerian oil supply chain risk factors. Additionally, the research identifies practical mitigation strategies, such as risk transfer, safety planning, alternative energy carriers, improved energy efficiency, emergency rescue plans, expected shortages, and diplomatic relations. This research contributes valuable insights to both academia and industry, fostering a deeper understanding of risk dynamics in the Nigerian oil sector. The framework presented offers a powerful approach to risk management, providing a foundation for informed decision-making and strategic planning in the ever-evolving landscape of supply chain dynamics.

Exploring support and opposition to regulatory approaches for wildfire risk management: requirements, voluntary actions, and tailored local action

AbstractFormal requirements of wildfire mitigation on private properties are increasingly being considered as one avenue for “scaling up” wildfire management and voluntary mitigation actions to landscape scales. Likewise, enduring segments of wildfire research suggest that residents’ perceptions about potential wildfire risk sources in their landscape, including ignition sources, are critical considerations related to support for mitigation efforts such as formal requirements or cross-boundary fuel reduction initiatives. The research presented in this article utilized mixed-method, residential surveys of property owners in Kittitas County, Washington, to explore influences on support for wildfire mitigation requirements and performance of voluntary mitigations on private lands. We found a high degree of variability in support for regulatory approaches, including relatively low levels of support for building or retrofitting regulations and a moderate level of support for vegetation management regulations. Perceptions about wildfire risk sources or public land management, past performance of wildfire mitigation actions, and support for shared, locally managed mitigations all correlated with support for differing regulatory approaches. We also found that performance of voluntary mitigation actions correlated with increasing wildfire program participation, differed among part-time or full- time residents, and were influenced by proximity to nearby property boundaries. Our results suggest that the most supported strategy in the study area may be the establishment of local, tax funded districts that encourage voluntary mitigation actions tailored to local circumstances. We conclude the paper by comparing our results to existing lessons from wildfire social science.

Advocating integration of human responses in the flood resilience framework for inland cities of northern China

ABSTRACT Frequent urban flooding poses a predominant challenge to resilience managers and the public in inland cities. Nevertheless, various facets of the formation, development, and response to inland flooding in developing countries are still less understood. Using the statistics data of typical flood events in China, this paper examines the causes of devastation in inland areas of the north combined with a comprehensive risk assessment methodology and explores a nuanced understanding of resilience. The conclusions reveal that the inland cities of northern China are facing an imminent threat from escalating flood hazards. 11% of the flood-influenced population and 17% of the disaster-caused economic losses are concentrated in the region. Increased extreme precipitation, heightened exposure and vulnerability, and a sluggish human response to crises are main factors contributing to these complex disasters. The study also proposes a transformative flood resilience framework for inland flooding from three dimensions, emphasizing the integration of human responses. The three aspects of the framework are summarized based on the driving factors mentioned earlier and a simplified multidimensional perspective of resilient cities, reflecting the adaptive and evolutionary features of resilience. Hence, incorporating the resilience strategies to urban flood risk management is a relatively practical approach to urban flood risk management in inland regions.

Risk Management and Different Financial Approaches to Reduce Business Risk

This article examines three different risk management methods: asset hedging by shorting stocks, cash flow hedging using forward contracts, and futures contracts. The article explains each method's rationale, application, advantages, and disadvantages. By presenting and explaining these methods, this study aims to help readers gain insights into their effectiveness in managing risk in different types of transactions. The content of the article supports the readers to have a better understanding and gives some strategies for risk management, and provides guidance for decision-makers to mitigate potential risks in their financial operations. Asset hedging by shorting stocks involves selling borrowed stocks in anticipation of a decline in their price, thereby offsetting the potential loss of a declining asset. This strategy allows an investor to profit from a decline in stock prices. Cash flow hedging through forward contracts involves entering into an agreement to buy or sell an asset at a pre-determined future price, thereby reducing the risk of adverse price movements and ensuring a stable cash flow. On the other hand, futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an asset at a future date, are traded on public markets, provide legal protection for both parties through financial intermediaries, and allow investors to lock in prices. While these risk management methods have obvious advantages, such as potential gains to offset the risk of asset depreciation during market downturns, protection against adverse price movements, and price stabilization, they also have inherent risks and limitations that need to be carefully considered.

Problems of the human factor in transport systems

Transport accident statistics and practical safety results indicate that technological solutions cannot ensure the viability (safety, sustainability, reliability and efficiency) of complex systems and structures without addressing human factors. This problem is especially acute for transport systems as highly complex technological and social structures aimed at ensuring the efficiency and safety of an entire sphere of human life. In transportation systems and technologies, the human factor plays a critical role. The successful operation of transport systems requires consideration of the human factor at all levels – starting from the development, design and planning of systems and technologies, training and education to the involvement of society in decision-making processes. Therefore, it is essential to develop the concept of human factor management and analyze the main problems in transport systems associated with the human factor to improve the safety, reliability and efficiency of their functioning. The article is devoted to the analysis of the human factor problem in transport systems and the search for solutions to manage it. The purpose of the article is to analyze the main problems in transport systems associated with the human factor and to develop the concept of human factor management for further search for solutions to improve the safety and reliability of transport systems. A set of instruments was proposed in the study to achieve the goal and solve the set tasks. Problems connected to the human factor in transport systems were analyzed. The main directions for solving problems with the influence of the human factor on the safety of transport systems were systematized. The main principles, models and ways of developing the concept of managing the human factor problem in complex systems, including transport, were outlined. A systematization of the risk management strategy was proposed. A matrix for the relationship between risk management strategies and approaches to managing the safety of complex systems was proposed. A new look at the principle of adaptive ergonomics as an implementation of the tolerance strategy was proposed, and applying the principle of adaptive ergonomics to transport systems was considered. The main motivation of the work is to attract the attention of the scientific and educational community to the problem of human factor and the need to use the concept of human factor management in the educational process to improve the general safety culture in society.

Dealing with uncertainty in cyberspace

While cyberspace as a globally interconnected network offers economic, social and informational potential, at the same time this space also produces a wide variety of risks, for which no easy solutions exist. For the international community, for nation states, for organizations and even for individuals, uncertainty is a common thread for interaction, communication and the general use of (systems connected to) cyberspace. This research shows that there are five different common reactions to dealing with this uncertainty in cyberspace: (1) using risk management to control uncertainty; (2) recovering from uncertainty through resilience; (3) influencing uncertainty with laws and regulation; (4) suspending uncertainty by engaging in trust; and (5) ignoring uncertainty through inaction. Some of these approaches are used more often than others. For instance, risk management is currently the dominant way of responding to uncertainty in cyberspace, with resilience gaining prominence. Other strategies, such as relying on trust or inaction, are less common. Oftentimes, using a mixture of strategies may be helpful, because some strategies may strengthen one another, for instance when a combination of risk management and resilience approaches is used. Each strategy has particular use for specific contexts, but since we lack an overview of which strategies are being used, we also cannot establish under which conditions which strategy is most beneficial. Solving this lack of knowledge can help us be more effective in dealing with uncertainties of a wide variety in cyberspace.

Ethical considerations in Risk management of autonomous and intelligent systems

Abstract The rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has raised concerns regarding the potential risks it may pose to humans, society, and the environment. Recent advancements have intensified these concerns, emphasizing the need for a deeper understanding of the technical, societal, and ethical aspects that could lead to adverse or harmful failures in decisions made by autonomous and intelligent systems (AIS). This paper aims to examine the ethical dimensions of risk management in AIS. Its objective is to highlight the significance of ethical considerations in mitigating risks associated with the development, deployment, and use of AIS. The paper provides an overview of various types of AI risks and risk management procedures aimed at mitigating the negative impacts of those risks. We employ a comprehensive risk management approach that combines technical expertise with ethical analysis to ensure alignment with human values and societal objectives. Through the analysis of AI risks and risk management procedures, we advocate for establishing effective mechanisms for ethical oversight and legal control to promote ethical and trustworthy AIS. The findings reveal key risks associated with transparency, accountability, privacy infringement, algorithmic bias, and unintended consequences. To address these challenges, we consider integrating ethical principles into risk management practices, transparent risk communication, continuous engagement with all stakeholders, establishing robust accountability mechanisms, and regular ethical oversight as imperative in ethically designing and operating AI systems. Given the diminished effectiveness of internal audits compared to external audits, we also recommend the implementation of regular monitoring mechanisms through independent external audits when evaluating risk management practices.

Advanced risk management models for supply chain finance

This review paper delves into the transformative potential of advanced risk management models in enhancing the resilience and efficiency of supply chain finance (SCF). By examining the application and development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), Big Data analytics, and blockchain technology, the paper highlights their role in transitioning from traditional reactive strategies to proactive and predictive risk management approaches. Despite the promising advantages, the paper also addresses the significant implementation challenges, model limitations, and regulatory and ethical considerations accompanying these technological advancements. Recommendations for effective deployment and areas for future research, particularly in overcoming existing hurdles and exploring emerging technologies, are also discussed. This comprehensive analysis aims to guide academics, industry professionals, and policymakers in harnessing advanced risk management models for a more robust SCF ecosystem.

The Risk-Return Trade-Off of US Renewable Energy Sector

This study applies the Fama-French three-factor model to analyze the impact of market risk premium, size, and value factors on the stock returns of eight major renewable energy companies listed on the U.S. stock market. Employing linear regression analysis. The analysis indicates that while market trends heavily influence stock returns, the size and value factors' effects vary across different companies. This study contributes to understanding the financial performance of renewable energy firms and underscores the need for industry-specific risk management approaches to bolster investor confidence and facilitate sector growth. The results serve as a foundational reference for investors and policymakers interested in the renewable energy market's dynamics and its future development trajectory.

Innovations in Risk Measurement and Management for Strategic Financing Decisions

This study aims to explore the integration of innovative quantitative models, behavioral finance insights, and advanced analytics techniques in contemporary risk management practices to bolster organizations' resilience and informed decision-making within dynamic financial landscapes. Through a systematic literature review spanning disciplines such as finance, psychology, and technology, this research synthesizes diverse insights to comprehensively understand the evolving nature of risk management strategies. The findings elucidate that incorporating advanced quantitative models like Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) empowers organizations to meticulously assess and quantify financial risks, thereby enhancing risk management accuracy and granularity. Furthermore, the assimilation of behavioral finance insights illuminates the psychological determinants shaping risk perception and decision-making behaviors, leading to the development of more robust risk management frameworks that accommodate both rational and irrational factors. Moreover, leveraging advanced analytics techniques, notably natural language processing (NLP) algorithms, enables proactive risk management by analyzing textual data and market sentiments with heightened precision. This study underscores the imperative of perpetual innovation and adaptability in risk management practices to adeptly navigate the intricacies of modern financial landscapes. By harnessing emerging technologies, behavioral insights, and interdisciplinary methodologies, organizations can fortify their risk management capabilities, mitigate threats, and seize opportunities in today's globally interconnected economy. Addressing the challenges associated with implementing innovative risk management practices necessitates proactive leadership, resource allocation, and organizational culture transformation. Ultimately, this research contributes to advancing the understanding and application of innovative risk measurement and management approaches, fostering sustainable growth and success for organizations.

Harnessing fuzzy logic for building structural health during large diameter tunnelling in urban area

Building structural health is constantly jeopardized by tunnel construction, which thus is in a sustained demand for holistic risk assessment and management approaches. In this study, we propose an enhanced consulting fuzzy model with limited information losses to evaluate the static and dynamic risks of building health deterioration during tunnelling. The model integrates three main strategies including, (i) reducing influence of experts’ bias in the ranking processes; (ii) expanding the space of uncertainties in fuzzy environment, and (iii) controlling risk aversion settings through the prospect theory. The construction of the largest diameter (15.3 m) tunnel in China is adopted as a case study to demonstrate the application of the proposed model in assessing the risk statuses of surrounding buildings. Through the proposed model, the risk index can indicate beneficial or detrimental effects of tunnelling and the degree of risk factors delineates priority actions for risk management. The results enable the development of operational risk abatement procedures to enhance the state of practice of large diameter tunnel construction in complex geological conditions.

Enhancing agile project success: a comprehensive study of risk management approaches among Malaysian practitioners

AbstractRisk management (RM) plays a role in project management in the software development field. As information technology (IT) systems become more essential across industries and IT projects continue to face failure rates effective project management becomes crucial. However, the utilization of methodologies in risk management is not widely considered, specifically in Malaysia. This study aims to investigate how software practitioners in Malaysia have implemented risk management and discover strategies that can enhance risk management for agile contexts. The main focus of this study is the limited integration of methodologies into risk management practices, which has created a gap within the software risk domain. Successful risk management is essential for the achievement of software projects, and the findings from this study can offer insights for software development organizations to make informed decisions and improve project outcomes. By utilizing a quantitative approach and adapted questionnaires, this comprehensive study collected data from 60 practitioners and conducted descriptive analysis to identify key risk elements that have significant potential to affect project performance. The findings highlight these risk elements that can significantly impact project success. Agile methodologies, with their emphasis on collaboration, communication within teams, and engagement with stakeholders, including top management, are instrumental in aligning project objectives, identifying potential risks, and resolving issues promptly. This study provides empirical insights into the risk management practices of agile practitioners in Malaysia, which can equip software development organizations with valuable knowledge for informed decision‐making. By enhancing project outcomes and guiding future strategic actions, the findings of this study can contribute to the improvement of agile risk management in the software development industry, particularly in the Malaysian context.

Risk Analysis of Electricity Demand at Public Electric Vehicle Charging Stations (SPKLU): CVaR Model Approach

The electricity demand at Public Electric Vehicle Charging Stations (SPKLUs) exhibits significant volatility, which is driven by several aspects including electricity demand patterns at specific time intervals, load variability, SPKLU capacity, and other related factors. The variability of these swings can present hazards for SPKLU operators in relation to energy administration as well as operational and financial hazards. The objective of this study is to assess the risk associated with energy demand fluctuation at SPKLUs by employing the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model technique. CVaR, or Conditional Value at Risk, is a quantitative measure of risk that calculates the predicted loss value in the most unfavorable situation. It is commonly employed to enhance the risk management approach of SPKLUs. The electricity demand at SPKLU exhibits significant volatility, with an average fluctuation of 10.15% and a standard deviation of 49.67%. The CVAR, calculated at -121.19% for a confidence interval of 1%, represents the maximum potential loss that could be experienced during worst-case electrical demand conditions, highlighting the substantial fluctuations in demand. The study initially implemented the CVaR model to analyze power demand at SPKLU, providing novel perspectives on risk reduction for critical infrastructure and proposing unique strategies for managing demand fluctuations in a reliable and efficient manner. The results also offer comprehensive insights into risk exposure and facilitate the formulation of well-informed and strategic risk management plans.

Correction to “Framework for Teaching Safety Case Studies Using a Risk Management Approach”

Correction to “Framework for Teaching Safety Case Studies Using a Risk Management Approach”

Effective cybersecurity risk management practices for small and medium-sized enterprises: A comprehensive review

Small-to-medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) make up a significant portion of the economies of many nations. However, research shows that many companies fall short when establishing cyber security, making them vulnerable to assaults. In addition, while accounting for a sizable share of firms, studies on cyber security focus on SMEs. This study reviews the latest evaluation on the cyber security of SMEs, emphasizing how well this experiment aligns with the well-known National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and Cyber Security Framework (CSF). The report begins by underlining the crucial necessity of cybersecurity in the digital era and the particular issues that SMEs confront. It emphasizes the financial and reputational dangers associated with cyber events, emphasizing the importance of solid cybersecurity procedures. The review investigates several cybersecurity risk management approaches, strategies and frameworks, providing insights into their relevance and efficacy in the context of SMEs. We discovered that study in SME cyber security is sophisticated and specialized attention on the NIST and CSF recognize as well as defend tasks, with minimal effort spent on the other current activities. SMEs should be equipped to detect, react to, and recover from cybercrime. SMEs might not have appropriate information on responding to such occurrences if research in these areas is pathetic. In future studies in SMEs, there needs to be an excellent equilibrium in cyber security. Scholars ought to use firm, proven mathematical methods to improve and test their work, yet governments and academia are urged to invest in providing researchers with incentives to broaden their research horizons.

An Exploration of Investment Strategies within Zambia's National Pension Scheme Authority

As a critical state-owned enterprise administering billions in retirement assets, NAPSA's investment governance has substantial fiscal and welfare implications for Zambia. Investment strategies in government institutions involve a systematic and comprehensive approach to managing public funds for various purposes, such as infrastructure development, pension fund assets, and bond proceeds. However, there has been little scholarly investigation into the real- world dynamics, drivers, and performance impacts of NAPSA's investment strategies, policy decisions over its recent history. This study aimed to bridge that knowledge gap through qualitative analysis of NAPSA's investment strategy formulation, risk management approaches, implementation processes, and financial results over the past two decades. The primary instruments for data collection in this study were semi-structured interviews and focus groups, both conducted remotely via Microsoft Teams. The data analysis for this study was undertaken using thematic analysis. This approach was instrumental in interpreting the data collected from the interviews and focus groups. Furthermore, qualitative documents like reports provided corroborating context. Together these primary data resources facilitated nuanced analysis around the multi-layered drivers and impacts influencing NAPSA’s investment governance – aligning techniques tightly with exploratory research goals seeking elucidations to inform potential policy enhancements. The findings revealed that NAPSA maintained a diversified investment portfolio across various asset classes. Formalization of developmental impact assessment measures and the strengthening of specialized analytical competencies are amongst the recommendations. These steps are important for NAPSA to continue effectively managing its substantial assets in a manner that supports both the welfare of its pensioners and the broader economic interests of Zambia.

Theoretical insights into IT governance and compliance in banking: Perspectives from African and U.S. regulatory environments

This review paper provides a comprehensive comparative analysis of IT governance and compliance within the banking sectors of Africa and the U.S., highlighting the intricacies of navigating diverse regulatory environments. Through examining governance strategies, compliance mechanisms, and best practices, the paper underscores the adaptation of frameworks like COBIT, ISO/IEC 27001, and ITIL to meet regional regulatory demands and operational challenges. Key insights reveal significant differences in regulatory landscapes, technological maturity, and cybersecurity and risk management approaches. The analysis identifies best practices and lessons that can be leveraged globally, suggesting areas for future research including emerging technologies and the impact of global regulations. This work aims to enhance understanding of IT governance and compliance, offering valuable perspectives for banks, regulators, and policymakers. Keywords: IT Governance, Compliance, Banking Sector, Regulatory Environment, Cybersecurity, Emerging Technologies.