Risk Index Research Articles

Association between JAK2V617F variable allele frequency and risk of thrombotic events in patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms.

Myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) are a group of chronic disorders of the bone marrow characterised by the overproduction of clonal myeloid stem cells. The most common driver mutation found in MPNs is a point mutation on exon 14 of the JAK2 gene, JAK2V617F. Various studies have suggested that measuring the variable allele frequency (VAF) of JAK2V617F may provide useful insight regarding diagnosis, treatment, risks and outcomes in MPN patients. In particular, JAK2V617F has been associated with increased risk of thrombotic events, a leading cause of mortality in MPNs. The aim of this study was to determine if JAK2V617F VAF was associated with clinical outcomes in patients with MPN. JAK2V617F VAF was determined by quantitative PCR (qPCR) in a cohort of 159 newly diagnosed MPN patients, and the association of JAK2V617F VAF and risk of thrombosis was examined in this cohort. We observed a significantly higher JAK2V617F VAF in PV and PMF versus ET. A significant association was observed between JAK2V617F VAF and risk of thrombotic events. When patients were stratified by thrombotic events prior to and post diagnosis, an association with JAK2V617F VAF was only observed with post diagnosis thrombotic events. Of note, these associations were not observed when looking at each MPN subtype in isolation. We have shown that a higher JAK2V617F VAF is associated with thrombotic events post MPN diagnosis. JAK2V617F VAF may therefore provide a valuable prognostic indicator for risk of thrombosis in MPNs.

Multispecies Portfolios of U.S. Marine Fisheries: Ecosystem‐Based Fisheries Management Reduces Economic Risk

Fisheries management has focused on single stocks, not directly accounting for species interactions, and usually only considering economic factors in post hoc analysis. This approach has been successfully applied for many species over many years, but may also inadvertently result in greater risks being incurred. We demonstrate a portfolio optimization approach to inform a broader set of fishery concerns as a way to emphasize species interactions and economic considerations in resource management decision making. The approach can use readily available data on landings and revenue to generate easily digestible indicators of risk, namely the risk gap (i.e., the difference between actual and optimal portfolio values). Herein, we calculate portfolio efficiency frontiers that minimize risk for target revenue outcomes and resulting risk gaps for commercial fisheries using the top 25 landed‐value species in six U.S. fisheries regions. Most regions exhibited a risk gap on the order of US$20–50 million, collectively on average over $250 million. Risk gaps can be used as ecosystem‐level indicators to inform managers of the unnecessary risk being assumed for a given level of revenue for a portfolio of fisheries stocks, which can move us towards operational ecosystem‐based fisheries management.

Heavy Metal Accumulation in Sediments of a Non-Perennial River in South India: Implications for Ecology and Human Health – A Multi-Index and Statistical Assessment

ABSTRACT The present study assessed the heavy metal pollution in sediment samples collected from the Noyyal River basin (river and lake sediments) during the monsoon and summer seasons. The geo-accumulation index (Igeo) categorizes metals as extremely polluted during monsoon and heavily contaminated to extremely contaminated during summer. The enrichment factor (EF) of metals Mn during monsoon and Cd during summer indicates extremely severe enrichment (EF > 50) and Mo exhibited very high contamination (CF > 6) throughout the basin during monsoon. The average risk index of heavy metal in the basin followed the order Cd (164.15) > Ni (14.82) > Co (4.84) > Cr (2.55) > Cu (1.89) > Zn (1.38) > Mn (0.40) during monsoon and Cd (153.07) > Ni (7.96) > Cu (5.13) > Co (4.63) > Cr (1.89) > Zn (1.21) > Mn (0.3) during summer showing that the PERI of each element was minimal except for Cd. Adverse health-related effects are confirmed by the cumulative total hazard index (THI) for children with HQ ingestion and HI values >1 in all sample locations over both seasons. Principal component and cluster analysis show metals accumulate in sediments mainly through industrial wastewater discharge and also experience significant natural source weathering through rainfall runoff. This research emphasizes the need for enhanced wastewater treatment facilities in metropolitan areas situated along the Noyyal River to potentially reduce the release of heavy metals from both domestic and industrial sources.

Preoperative Malnutrition Calculated Using the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index in Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting

Background: The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), which assesses nutritional status using the ideal body weight ratio and albumin level, is a useful predictor of long-term cardiovascular disease prognosis. This study aimed to investigate the impact of preoperative GNRI on off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) surgical outcomes. Methods: We analyzed 632 elective OPCAB procedures performed between July 2008 and July 2018. GNRI was calculated as 14.89 × albumin level (g/dL) + 41.7 × (current body weight [kg]/ideal body weight [kg]). Patients were divided into two groups: the low GNRI (≤98, L group, n = 155) and high GNRI (>98, H group, n = 477) groups. We compared perioperative variables and mid-term outcomes, particularly survival rates and freedom from major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events (MACCE). Results: Patients in the L group were older (72.4 ± 8.6 vs. 67.9 ± 10.1 years, p < 0.001) and had lower GNRI scores (90.9 ± 5.8 vs. 106.0 ± 4.8, p < 0.001) than patients in the H group. Perioperative results, including operation time and number of anastomoses, were similar between the groups, with no significant differences in 30-day mortality, perioperative intra-aortic balloon pump use, bleeding, stroke, or mediastinitis rates were observed. However, patients in the L group had a longer postoperative hospital stay than those in the H group (15.4 ± 13.5 vs. 12.6 ± 5.8 days, p = 0.01). Analyses of long-term outcomes revealed a significant difference in 5-year survival rates (70.9% for the L group vs. 83.3% for the H group, p = 0.002) but no significant difference in 5-year MACCE rates (84.1% for the L group vs. 80.3% for the H group, p = 0.19). Conclusions: Despite the longer hospital stay for patients in the L group, other perioperative outcomes were similar between the groups, suggesting that a low GNRI should not preclude patients from undergoing OPCAB surgery.

Association between the geriatric nutritional risk index and cognitive functions in older adults: a cross-sectional study from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

To investigate the associations between the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) with cognitive functions among U.S. older adults. (Patients were classified into two nutrition risk groups based on the GNRI). Our analysis utilized data from the cross-sectional National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) conducted between 2011 and 2014. Cognitive function was measured using CERAD test, AFT and DSST. Composite z-scores were obtained by summing test-specific z-scores of the above three cognitive tests and were used to assess the global cognitive function. We employed weighted logistic regression models to evaluate the associations between GNRI and nutritional status (low and high GNRI) with cognitive function among older participants. The non-linear relationship was described using fitted smoothed curves and threshold effect analyses. Subgroup analysis and interaction tests were also conducted. This study included 2,592 older participants aged 60 years and older. After adjusting for confounding variables, the GNRI was positively associated with AFT (β = 0.05, 95% CI 0.005-0.096, p-value = 0.0285), DSST (β = 0.192, 95% CI 0.078-0.305, p-value = 0.0010) and the composite z-scores (β = 0.027, 95% CI 0.010-0.044, p-value = 0.0024). The results also showed that the high-GNRI group was significantly associated with AFT (β = 0.922, 95% CI 0.166-1.677, p-value = 0.0169), DSST (β = 2.791, 95% CI 0.884-4.698, p-value = 0.0042) and composite z-scores (β = 0.405, 95% CI 0.115-0.695, p-value = 0.0062) likewise had significant positive correlations, using the low-GNRI group as a reference. In addition, inflection points with CERAD and composite z-scores were found at GNRI of 108.016, and 105.371, respectively. Specifically, on the left side of the inflection point GNRI levels were positively correlated with CERAD and composite z-scores (CERAD β = 0.087, 95% CI 0.024-0.150, p-value = 0.0070; composite z-scores β = 0.065, 95% CI 0.040-0.091, p-value <0.0001), while on the right side of the inflection point were significantly negatively associated (CERAD β = -0.295, 95% CI -0.529 to -0.062, p-value = 0.0133, composite z-scores β = -0.050, 95% CI -0.091 to -0.008, p-value = 0.0184). Lower GNRI was associated with poorer performance in several cognitive domains. Additionally, there was a non-linear positive association between GNRI and cognitive function in normal nutritional states, for excessive GNRI may cause cognitive decline.

Can the SIARI score be used at initial admission to predict testes involvement in patients with fournier’s gangrene; a single-centre, retrospective study

BackgroundTo predict testicular involvement in patients diagnosed with Fournier’s gangrene (FG) using the Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score and the site other than lower limb (SIARI) score.MethodsThe medical records of 51 patients operated for FG in our clinic between December 2012 and April 2022 were evaluated retrospectively in this study. Patients’ demographics, and laboratory test results were compared with the testisticular involvement status. Patients with testisticular involvement (n = 10) were compared with patients without testicular involvement (n = 41). The SIARI score at initial admission was analysed using logistic regression analyses for its performance in predicting testicular involvement with FG. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were used to evaluate its discriminating ability.ResultsThe SIARI score had modest performance for diagnosing testicular involvement in FG patients, with ROC analysis showing an AUROC value of 0.83 (p < 0.001). With a SIARI cut-off score of ≥ 3, the sensitivity was 90% and the specificity was 68%. For a SIARI cut-off score of ≥ 5, the sensitivity was 40% and the specificity was 97%.ConclusionsThe ability of the SIARI score to discriminate FG with testicular involvement is modest. The SIARI score should be employed cautiously as a routine diagnostic tool for the prediction of testicular involvement in FG at the initial admission. More research is needed to develop a better understanding of the relationship between the SIARI score and testicular involvement in FG.

The effects of time-restricted eating alone or in combination with probiotic supplementation in comparison with a calorie-restricted diet on endocrine and metabolic profiles in women with polycystic ovary syndrome: A randomized clinical trial.

To assess the impact of intermittent fasting, with or without probiotic supplementation, versus a calorie-restricted diet on anthropometric measures, metabolic status and gonadal variables in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). This is a randomized, placebo-controlled, parallel-arm clinical trial. The effects of the 14:10 early time-restricted eating (eTRE) strategy alone or combined with probiotics, on obese women with PCOS, were investigated. Participants were divided into three groups: eTRE plus probiotics (n = 30), eTRE plus placebo (n = 30) and a control group following a standard three-meal-per-day diet with daily calorie restriction (DCR) (n = 30). Over 8 weeks, various anthropometric, metabolic, menstrual and gonadal variables were assessed. A total of 90 individuals were included in the study, with a mean body weight of 81.4 kg, and a mean age of 30 years. Mean (standard deviation) weight loss was not different between the groups at week 8 (TRE + probiotic: -2.2 [1.6] kg vs. TRE + placebo: -2.9 [2.7] kg vs. DCR: -2.5 [1.7] kg). Results revealed that, while all three regimes led to reductions in body weight, body mass index, vascular risk indicators, hirsutism and acne scores, there were no statistically significant differences between the eTRE groups and the control group in terms of weight loss, or improvements in metabolic, menstrual and gonadal variables (P > .05). Additionally, combining probiotics with eTRE did not benefit hormonal and cardiometabolic factors (P > .05). The eTRE alone or eTRE plus probiotics did not result in significantly greater weight loss or improvements in metabolic, menstrual and gonadal variables compared with the standard three-meal DCR diet.

A tumour-associated macrophage-based signature for deciphering prognosis and immunotherapy response in prostate cancer.

For the multistage progression of prostate cancer (PCa) and resistance to immunotherapy, tumour-associated macrophage is an essential contributor. Although immunotherapy is an important and promising treatment modality for cancer, most patients with PCa are not responsive towards it. In addition to exploring new therapeutic targets, it is imperative to identify highly immunotherapy-sensitive individuals. This research aimed to establish a signature risk model, which derived from the macrophage, to assess immunotherapeutic responses and predict prognosis. Data from the UCSC-XENA, GEO and TISCH databases were extracted for analysis. Based on both single-cell datasets and bulk transcriptome profiles, a macrophage-related score (MRS) consisting of the 10-gene panel was constructed using the gene set variation analysis. MRS was highly correlated with hypoxia, angiogenesis, and epithelial-mesenchymal transition, suggesting its potential as a risk indicator. Moreover, poor immunotherapy responses and worse prognostic performance were observed in the high-MRS group of various immunotherapy cohorts. Additionally, APOE, one of the constituent genes of the MRS, affected the polarisation of macrophages. In particular, the reduced level of M2 macrophage and tumour progression suppression were observed in PCa xenografts which implanted in Apolipoprotein E-knockout mice. The constructed MRS has the potential as a robust prognostic prediction tool, and can aid in the treatment selection of PCa, especially immunotherapy options.

Influence of comorbidities on outcome in 1102 patients with an allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

The hematopoietic comorbidity risk index (HCT-CI) is a pre-transplant risk assessment tool used to qualify comorbidities to predict non-relapse mortality (NRM) of patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). HSCT procedures continue to improve. Therefore, the predictive value of HCT-CI needs to be re-evaluated. Our study is a retrospective analysis of pre-existing comorbidities assessing the relevance of the HCT-CI on the outcome of consecutive patients (n = 1102) undergoing allo-HSCT from 2006-2021. HCT-CI was classified as low (HCT-CI 0), intermediate (HCT-CI 1-2) and high-risk (HCT-CI ≥ 3). At 10 years, NRM for low, intermediate, and high-risk HCT-CI group was 21.0%, 26.0%, and 25.8% (p = 0.04). NRM difference was significant between low to intermediate (p < 0.001), but not between intermediate to high-risk HCT-CI (p = 0.22). Overall survival (OS) at 10 years differed significantly with 49.9%, 39.8%, and 31.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis of HCT-CI organ subgroups, cardiac disease was most strongly associated with NRM (HR = 1.73, p = 0.02) and OS (HR = 1.77, p < 0.001). All other individual organ comorbidities influenced NRM to a lesser extent. Further, donor (HR = 2.20, p < 0.001 for unrelated and HR = 2.17, p = 0.004 for mismatched related donor), disease status (HR = 1.41, p = 0.03 for advanced disease) and previous HSCT (HR = 1.55, p = 0.009) were associated with NRM. Improvement in transplant techniques and supportive care may have improved outcome with respect to comorbidities.

From perception to action: Participatory water risk assessment in Nagaon District of Assam, India

This paper presents an examination of water risks in rural communities within Nagaon district of Assam, India. It employs a participatory approach to integrate community perspectives into the assessment process. The objective is to engage local people, gain an understanding of water risks they encounter in their everyday lives, and incorporate their opinions and experiences. To achieve this objective, the present analyses employ mixed methods, including stakeholder interviews, focus group discussions, household surveys, and community forums. Additionally, the development of the Participatory Water Risk Index (PWRI) provides a novel metric for quantifying and prioritizing water risks, aligning with local priorities and perspectives. The findings highlight the identification and evaluation of seven key parameters of water risk which include availability and sufficiency of drinking water, water quality issues, prevalence of water-related diseases, irrigation facilities, vulnerability to floods, and utilization of public water infrastructure. The study underscores the importance of community involvement and empowerment in addressing water-related challenges and promoting resilience. Policy recommendations derived from the research emphasize the need for context-specific approaches to water resource management, recognizing the unique challenges and strengths of each community within the district. The transferability of the PWRI to other locations offers substantial opportunities for improving water security worldwide, contingent upon careful consideration of context-specific parameters and community engagement. Thus, this paper contributes to the advancement of sustainable water management practices by integrating local knowledge into the assessment process, guiding future interventions to build a water-secure future for rural communities in Nagaon district and beyond.

Vulnerability and risk analysis of climate change Impacts on rice production (Oryza sativa L.) in Majalengka regency

Climate change, especially temperature and rainfall shifting can be a threat to the agricultural sector, i.e., the decrease in rice yields in Majalengka Regency as the West Java rice production center. As an anticipatory measure to deal with that problem, a study is needed regarding the level of hazard, vulnerability and risk of climate change impacts in Majalengka Regency. This research aims to identify climate change and examine the level of hazzard, vulnerability and risk of the impact of climate change on rice production in each sub-district in Majalengka Regency. The method used in this research is descriptive quantitative. The data used in the analysis of the level of hazard, vulnerability and risk of climate change include temperature, rainfall, production, productivity, planting area, harvested area and farmers' socio-economic data obtained from Statistics Indonesia; Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency; Agriculture Office of Majalengka Regency and other relevant sources, while farmer interview data were used in analyzing strategic adaptation options. The results of the study stated that areas with a very high potential risk of decreasing rice production (Risk Index or RI &gt; 0.80) were in Kertajati District; the risk level of rice production in the high category (RI 0.61-0.80) was in Bantarujeg and Ligung Districts. Meanwhile, areas with a very high level of risk of decreasing rice productivity (IR) &gt; 0.80) are in Bantarujeg District; high-risk level (IR 0.61-0.80) was in the Districts of Lemahsugih, Malausma, Argapura, Kertajati, Jatipuh and Ligung. The adaptation efforts that can be made to reduce the risk of decreasing rice production are the use of superior seeds, crop rotation, intermittent irrigation systems, acceleration of land preparation by mechanization, application of the jajar legowo cropping system, and integrated pest management measures.

Evaluation of Conventional Surrogate Indicators of Safety for Connected and Automated Vehicles in Car Following at Signalized Intersections

The driving behaviors of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) will differ from those of human-driven vehicles (HDVs) because the CAVs’ driving decisions are controlled by computers. Because of the limited amount of crash data for CAVs, researchers have relied on surrogate measures of safety to assess their safety impacts. However, they often use the same safety indicators for CAVs that were used for HDVs, raising questions about the adequacy of the safety indicators for CAVs. This study aims to investigate the suitability of using conventional safety indicators for CAVs. To achieve this, we evaluated eight safety indicators used for CAVs in the literature: time-to-collision (TTC), post-encroachment time (PET), time-exposed TTC, time-integrated TTC, deceleration rate to avoid a crash (DRAC), crash-potential index, rear-end-collision risk index, and potential index for collision with urgent deceleration (PICUD). For the evaluation, we first simulate CAVs on an approaching lane of signalized intersections using the acceleration-control algorithm. The algorithm replaces the HDV trajectories with CAVs for mixed simulations where HDVs and CAVs coexist. Analyzing the simulation output, we examined the safety indicators for the various car-following scenarios and the CAV proportions. The findings suggest that PET and PICUD can yield different safety implications for CAVs because of their small-gap car-following characteristics. Ignoring such characteristics may lead to interpreting the small-gap car-following situations as simply dangerous traffic interactions for CAVs. The car-following experiments indicate that TTC, PET, and DRAC are insufficient in measuring the safety implications when successive vehicles operate at similar speeds for CAVs.

Assessment of heavy metal(oid) pollution and related health risks in agricultural soils surrounding a coal gangue dump from an abandoned coal mine in Chongqing, Southwest China

The coal gangue dump may introduce heavy metal(oid)s (HMs) into surrounding agricultural soils, posing potential health risks to nearby communities. This study evaluated heavy metal(oid) pollution in agricultural soils adjacent to a gangue dump at an abandoned coal mine in Chongqing, Southwest China. The concentrations of HMs (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were quantified using ICP-MS, and the contamination status was assessed using the Geoaccumulation Index (Igeo), Contamination Factor (CF), Pollution Load Index (PLI), and Potential Ecological Risk Index (RI). Heavy metal(oid) contamination was detected in soils across a depth of 0–30 cm, particularly pronounced in the topsoil layer (0–10 cm and 10–20 cm depths). Cu emerged as the predominant contaminant across all examined depths, with average Igeo values of 1.20, 1.21, and 1.16 for the 0–10 cm, 10–20 cm, and 20–30 cm depths, respectively, indicating moderate contamination. The CF for Cu was 3.55, 3.55, and 3.50 for these respective depths, classifying it as considerable contamination. The PLI values ranged from 1.61 to 2.50, with a mean value of 2.12, indicating overall contamination. The ecological risk assessment indicated that the soil's ecological risk was low at all depths. Cd was the major contributor to the RI, accounting for 48%, 47%, and 42% at 0–10 cm, 10–20 cm, and 20–30 cm depths, respectively. Health risk assessments revealed significant non-carcinogenic risks to children (mean HI = 1.30) and unacceptable carcinogenic risks to both adults and children (mean TCR = 3.26 × 10–4 and 1.53 × 10–3, respectively). This study underscores the critical need for comprehensive risk assessments using multiple indicators to prioritize remediation efforts for HMs, providing a scientific basis for effective environmental management and public health protection in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

Suicide Risk Factors in High School Students.

In Mexico, suicide has become an important public health problem, representing the third leading cause of death in the adolescent population. Suicidal behavior in adolescents is associated with the interaction of complex relationships between personal, interpersonal, and sociocultural factors. Through a quantitative, descriptive, and correlational cross-sectional study, the present study aimed to analyze the prevalence and risk factors associated with suicidal ideation among adolescents from different high schools of the high school system (SEMS) of the University of Guadalajara, in response to the psychosocial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. A descriptive statistical analysis was carried out on the data obtained from the 3583 students surveyed, followed by a principal component analysis (PCA) to identify closely related social, emotional, and behavioral variables. The PCA yielded eight principal components, which together represent 75.42% of the variance across psychometric tests. A multiple linear regression analysis was used, with a regression value (R2) of 0.4811, indicating that the explanatory model can predict 48.1% of the variability in suicidal ideation, with a statistical significance level of 0.05. According to the studies conducted, 19% (688 students) showed indicators of high suicide risk and 26.8% (960 students) showed moderate risk. Depression, mental health, health-related quality of life, physical and psychological well-being, and mood and emotions are the most influential factors in suicidal ideation.

Glycemic Marker Correlation with Collagen Denaturation and Non-Enzymatic Collagen Cross-Linking in Age-Associated Bone Resistance

The primary clinical indicator of fracture risk among the elderly is low bone mass, yet it accounts for less than half of fractures in individuals over 50 years. Age is recognized to influence bone quality, affecting bone structure and properties. Previous research indicates that age diminishes tissue plasticity and toughness conferred by collagen, suggesting that age-related changes in the collagen environment may contribute to bone fragility. This study explores the relationship between age-related collagen impairment, specifically the accumulation of non-enzymatic collagen cross-linking and molecular collagen denaturation, and bone toughness in middle-aged and older patients (postmenopausal 50–70 years old and senile osteoporosis age > 70 years old). Additionally, it examines the influence of blood glucose and HbA1c levels, as well as body mass index (BMI), on these factors. Despite not finding any differences in fracture toughness between groups, we found a significant correlation between hemoglobin A1c and collagen integrity (collagen denaturation and non-enzymatic cross-linking).

Morphological Enrichment and Environmental Factors Correlation of Heavy Metals in Dominant Plants in Typical Manganese Ore Areas in Guizhou, China.

Bioavailable heavy metal and their efficient phytoremediation in mining areas have major implications for environmental and human health. In this study, we investigated 12 dominant plants in a typical Mn ore area of Zunyi, Guizhou Province, China, to determine the heavy metal contents, morphologies, and environmental factors affecting Mn, Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn, and Cr in the plant parts and rhizosphere soil. The bioavailabilities and degrees of metals were evaluated using the ratios of the secondary to primary phase distributions and potential ecological risk indices. Principal component analysis, cluster analysis, positive matrix factorisation modelling, and redundancy analysis were used to trace the origins and correlations among the metals. The results indicate that the bioavailabilities were the highest for Mn and Cd in the study area, and all of the target heavy metals had bioavailabilities above the moderate ecological harm level. Statistical modelling indicates that there are four main pollution sources: mining, smelting, processing operations, and atmospheric deposition. The dominant plants had high heavy metal enrichments, bioconcentration factors, and translocation factors for Mn, Cu, Cr, Cd, and Zn. The redundancy analysis indicates that soil total N, total P, and pH affect metal absorption and distributions in Compositae and non-Compositae plants in low-N, low-P, and slightly alkaline mining environments. This study provides a feasible basis for the screening of heavy metal enrichment plants and the improvement of remediation technology in manganese ore area under the extreme environment of poor nutrition.

Leptin/Ghrelin Axis and Antibodies Reactive to Both Hormones in Relation to Metabolic Syndrome Components in Mexican Children.

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) in children is a rising health issue that is strongly associated with cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes mellitus development. Low-affinity antibodies reactive to leptin and ghrelin are suggested to regulate hormone stability and function; nevertheless, the role of the leptin/ghrelin axis and antibodies reactive to both hormones in relation to MetS or its components in the pediatric population remains unknown. Methods: Fifty-eight children (7-12 years) were included and categorized according to the presence of one or more criteria for the diagnosis of MetS or according to body mass index. Body composition, biochemical variables, and metabolic risk indexes were determined. Antibodies reactive to leptin and ghrelin were quantified by an in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test. Ratios of leptin/ghrelin hormones and anti-leptin/anti-ghrelin immune complexes were obtained. Results: The biochemical variables glucose (P = 0.0009), insulin (P = 0.0001), leptin (P = 0.0036), HOMA-IR (homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance) (P < 0.0001), and plasma atherogenic index (P < 0.0001) were significantly higher in children with two or three components of MetS (MetS 2-3) in comparison to children with none or one component (MetS 0-1). Ratios of leptin/ghrelin (P = 0.0307) and anti-leptin/anti-ghrelin immune complexes (P = 0.0338) were higher in MetS 2-3 group versus MetS 0-1 group. In MetS 2-3 group, both insulin (r = 0.4361, P = 0.0293) and HOMA-IR (r = 0.4761, P = 0.0161) were positively correlated with the leptin/ghrelin hormone ratio. Conclusions: The higher leptin/ghrelin hormone ratio scores observed in MetS 2-3 group, along with their correlation with insulin levels and HOMA-IR, highlight the role of leptin and ghrelin on insulin sensitivity and metabolic regulation. An increased ratio of anti-leptin/anti-ghrelin immune complexes suggests affinity changes in these antibodies that may lead to alterations in hormone function.

Ecological Security Pattern Construction and Multi-Scenario Risk Early Warning (2020–2035) in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China

The effectiveness of ecological security patterns (ESPs) in maintaining regional ecological stability and promoting sustainable development is widely recognized. However, limited research has focused on the early warning of risks inherent in ESPs. In this study, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GHKMGBA) is taken as the study area, and ecological security risk zones are delineated by combining the landscape ecological risk index and habitat quality, and a multi-level ESP is constructed based on the circuit theory. The PLUS model was employed to simulate future built-up land expansion under different scenarios, which were then extracted and overlaid with the multi-level ESP to enable the multi-scenario early warning of ESP risks. The results showed the following: The ESP in the central plains and coastal areas of the GHKMGBA exhibits a high level of ecological security risk, whereas the peripheral forested areas face less threat, which is crucial for regional ecological stability. The ESP, comprising ecological sources, corridors, and pinch points, is crucial for maintaining regional ecological flow stability, with tertiary corridors under significant stress and risk in all scenarios, requiring focused restoration and enhancement efforts. There are significant differences in risk early warning severity within the ESP across various development scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, the ESP will have the best early warning situation, effectively protecting ecological land and reducing ecological damage, providing a valuable reference for regional development policies. However, it must not overlook economic development and still needs to further seek a balance between economic growth and ecological protection.

Ship Trajectory Planning and Optimization via Ensemble Hybrid A* and Multi-Target Point Artificial Potential Field Model

Ship path planning is the core problem of autonomous driving of smart ships and the basis for avoiding obstacles and other ships reasonably. To achieve this goal, this study improved the traditional A* algorithm to propose a new method for ship collision avoidance path planning by combining the multi-target point artificial potential field algorithm (MPAPF). The global planning path was smoothed and segmented into multi-target sequence points with the help of an improved A* algorithm and fewer turning nodes. The improved APF algorithm was used to plan the path of multi-target points locally, and the ship motion constraints were considered to generate a path that was more in line with the ship kinematics. In addition, this method also considered the collision avoidance situation when ships meet, carried out collision avoidance operations according to the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGs), and introduced the collision risk index (CRI) to evaluate the collision risk and obtain a safe and reliable path. Through the simulation of a static environment and ship encounter, the experimental results show that the proposed method not only has good performance in a static environment but can also generate a safe path to avoid collision in more complex encounter scenarios.

Risk Evaluation and Software Development of Urban Natural Gas Pipelines Based on Bayesian Networks

Based on the urban natural gas pipeline accident statistics and semi-quantitative risk evaluation index system, this paper applies Bayesian network to establish a network model between various types of risk factors and the risk of natural gas pipeline failure. The EM algorithm was used to learn from the statistical accident data to obtain the parameters of the model. Based on the principle of evidential reasoning in reverse, the probability of occurrence of all risk indicators can be obtained when the probability of occurrence of urban natural gas pipeline accidents is 100%, the index weight is obtained by normalizing the occurrence probability. On this basis, this paper develops an efficient urban natural gas pipeline integrity risk identification and management software. The software can realize the basic data management of urban natural gas pipeline system, pipeline relative risk value calculation, pipeline risk level calculation and other functions, and the results are visualized. Finally, the practicability and effectiveness of the model and software are verified by a case of natural gas pipeline evaluation in a block.