Agricultural Risk Research Articles

Analysis of migration processes: risks for Ukrainian agriculture

Analysis of migration processes: risks for Ukrainian agriculture

Risk Analysis of Rice Farming at Volcano Semeru Area, Pronojiwo District, Lumajang Regency, Indonesia

This study aimed to analyze the production and financial risks of paddy rice farming in Pronojiwo district, Lumajang Regency, East Java, Indonesia. The research was conducted in March to May 2021, after the case of Semeru eruption in December 2020. The villages sample were Oro-Oro Ombo and Supiturang, the two most affected by the Mount Semeru lava flow. Primary data were obtained from the amount of 95 respondents chosen randomly. The risk of production and financial were analyzed by Coefficient of Variation (CV). Meanwhile, the factors affecting farm risk is analyzed by using regression method. The result of production risk on paddy rice farming in Pronojiwo, Lumajang Regency shows a low risk, namely indicated by CV of 35.38 %. However, the farm income risk is much higher, indicated by CV of 79.08 %. The factors affecting production risk is usage of chemical fertilizer. The increased number of chemical fertilizer will increase production risk of rice farming.

Strategic resilience: Integrating scheduling, supply chain management, and advanced operations techniques in production risk analysis and technical efficiency of rice farming in flood-prone areas

Farmers face various risks such as production risks in the use of technology, pests, climate change and natural disasters. Farmers in disaster-prone areas have different responses depending on their behavior towards the risks posed. The main problem in this research is how farmers behave towards production risks due to flooding and the technical efficiency of rice farming in flood-prone areas. The aim of this research is to analyze farmers' behavior towards production risks due to flooding and the technical efficiency of rice farmers in flood-prone areas. The results of this research will provide important information for policy simulations that the government can implement towards farmers affected by natural disasters and for sustainable disaster mitigation strategies. The novelty of this research is that it combines two theories, namely risk behavior and agricultural technical efficiency in producing disaster mitigation strategies. The research location was determined purposefully in Pasuruan and Bojonegoro Regencies. The data in this research are primary and secondary data with the sample in this research being farmers. The sampling technique in this research is a multi-stage cluster sampling technique. The analysis method in this research uses Just Pope. and the Cobb-Douglas production function model with the Stochastic Production Frontier approach. The target of these research findings is a model of the types of behavior regarding the risks of farmers who are flood victims, as well as the level of technical efficiency of rice farming and the factors that influence it. The expected findings are policy recommendations regarding disaster mitigation from economic and agricultural risk aspects to create sustainable agriculture.

Innovative Approaches to Agricultural Risk with Machine Learning

Innovative Approaches to Agricultural Risk with Machine Learning

Investigating factors affecting the development of contract farming. Case study: tomatoes in Kermanshah Province.

The escalating demands of a growing population and rising living standards strain the efficiency of traditional agricultural methods in fulfilling consumer nutritional needs. Technological advancements, particularly the introduction of contract farming models, offer a potential path towards addressing these challenges. However, in Iran, contract farming remains an underdeveloped and under-researched agricultural practice. This study delves into the factors influencing the development of contract farming in Iran. Employing a two-level multinomial logit model and data collected through 380 questionnaires administered to farmers in the Kermanshah region, the research reveals income (measured by the number of employed household members) as the primary driver of contract farming adoption. Additionally, factors such as reduced agricultural risk, higher education levels among farmers, improved product sales prices, and proximity to processing facilities positively impact the expansion of contract farming. Interestingly, "push factors" like land scarcity significantly influence non-contract farming participation, with 30.8% of surveyed households relying on these alternative methods. Geographical factors also contribute, explaining 23% of the observed variance in farming activity choices. These findings inform key policy interventions for sustainable contract farming development in Iran: robust legal frameworks and transparent contracts, contract-specific insurance schemes, training for agricultural extension workers, and farmer awareness campaigns.

Farmer income and farm risk of jajar legowo and conventional planting system

Farmer income and farm risk of <i>jajar legowo</i> and conventional planting system

Comparative Risk and Income Analysis of Cultivation of Cayenne Pepper and Large Chilli in East Lombok District

This study aims to analyse the production, income differences and farming risks of cayenne pepper and large chilli in East Lombok Regency. The research used descriptive quantitative methods and data collection using survey techniques. The research location was determined by multistage purposive sampling based on the altitude of the place and the highest production of cayenne pepper and large chilli. Respondent farmers were determined as many as 60 people selected by quota sampling. Selection of respondents using random sampling method. Production and farm income were analysed descriptively quantitatively. Risk measurement uses variance, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. Differences in income and risk of cayenne pepper and large chilli farming were analysed statistically with the Z test. The average production of cayenne pepper in East Lombok Regency was found to be 3,962 kg/ha and 6,044 kg/ha respectively in the rainy season and dry season. While the average production of large chilli in the rainy season and dry season was 3,297 kg/ha and 4,546 kg/ha. The average income of cayenne pepper farming is in the rainy season of Rp. 106 million/ha and the dry season of Rp. 11 million/ha is high and significantly different compared to the income of large chilli farming in the rainy season of Rp. 30 million/ha and the dry season of Rp. 15 million/ha. Production risk in cayenne pepper and large chilli farms is in the low category with a coefficient of variation (CVq) smaller than 0.50; however, the risk of cayenne pepper production is lower (CVq =0.33) than the risk of large chilli production and significantly different from the risk of large chilli production (CVq=0.40). While at price risk, cayenne pepper farming is at high risk (CVp = 0.54), while in large chillies the risk is lower (CVp = 0.39) and significantly different. The benefits of the research are (1) Farmers, as a material consideration in dealing with the risks in the cayenne pepper and large chilli farms carried out. (2) Government and related agencies, as information material for policy making related to risk issues in cayenne pepper and large chilli farms. (3) Other researchers, as a material consideration and information for similar research.

Agricultural Risk Factor Petani Lansia pada Aktivitas Pertanian Padi

According to data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the agricultural sector is the business field that absorbs the most elderly workers. However, elderly farmers actually become vulnerable to musculoskeletal disorders when doing agricultural work. This is because agriculture requires a lot of lifting activities, carrying heavy loads, working in bent and squatting positions, there is a risk of slipping and there is a risk of falling from the slippery paddy fields. This study aims to identify agricultural risks for elderly farmers. Data collection was carried out using Focus Group Discussions, to identify complaints with the Nordic Body Map (NBM) and risk assessment with the Agricultural Whole-Body Assessment (AWBA). Complaint data obtained, namely respondents stated that they had Gotrak complaints (muscle and skeletal disorders) on the waist and legs. Results questionnaire NBM, namely the level of complaints of pain in the highest part of the body that is felt, namely the waist. While the results of the AWBA risk assessment show that most of the work postures of elderly farmers are at high risk (high) with a percentage of 53% and a risk level of work duration of 73% of agricultural activities has a risk of 4 (very high).

Exogenous application of melatonin mitigate the heat stress in different tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) cultivars

Heat stress alleviates yield and production of horticultural crops and is considered a major risk for sustainable agriculture. Melatonin acts as a first line soldier to regulate plant growth by creating a conducive environment under heat stress. Thus, the present study was performed in pots to mitigate the adverse impact of heat stress on four genotypes of tomato (two were heat sensitive and two were heat tolerant) through exogenous application of melatonin. The experiment was comprised of two treatments, control and foliar spray of melatonin @ 25 µM, under factorial design (CRD) with five replications by using heat-sensitive and heat-tolerant cultivars of tomato as a test crop. All the tomato varieties were treated with 25 µM melatonin through foliar spray and compared with control which remained untreated. All the growth and yield parameters and enzymatic activities of antioxidants including catalase (CAT), superoxide dismutase (SOD), and peroxidase (POD) were increased significantly due to the application of melatonin. Moreover, the melatonin spray enhanced the osmolyte production such as malondialdehyde (MDA), proline contents, total soluble sugars, and fruit quality over control treatment. Concludingly, the heat-tolerant cultivars performed better under melatonin spray as compared to heat-sensitive cultivars of tomato.

Comparing established practice for short-term forecasts and emerging use of climate projections to identify opportunities for climate services in Australian agriculture

The use of climate services in agriculture to improve both tactical and strategic management decisions on farm is an area of increasing societal interest and technological development in Australia, as climate change increases climate variability and risk. Yet the focus of most uses of climate services remains on weather and seasonal forecasts and tactical farm responses, with longer term climate projections less often empirically examined. In this paper we analyse 25 interviews with farmers in Australia and use social practice theory to compare farm risk management decisions utilising short-term weather forecasting and longer-term climate projection planning. We identify different elements of climate risk management as a social practice, looking particularly at materials (objects and tools), meanings (beliefs and thinking) and competencies (skills and knowledge) associated with climate services. We find that there are significant differences in how decisions are made using different temporal data scales and furthermore, that there are large gaps in the materials, meaning and competencies for the use of longer-term climate projections. This analysis allows us to clearly identify opportunities for the agricultural sector in Australia, and globally, to better support decisions in both weather and climate timeframes by treating these as distinctly different capabilities and addressing the different elements of social practice outlined here.

Polish system of business insurance in agriculture and related areas during the accession processes and EU membership. Selected aspects. Part II: The period of Poland’s EU membership

The preparation period for Poland’s membership in the European Union, which lasted nearly 15 years and involved both the transposition of EU legislation, including insurance legislation, and the structuring of the national insurance system for the broadly defined agriculture and rural areas, failed (despite the adoption of the European model) to effect changes that would sufficiently help the agricultural insurance system recover from the long-lasting crisis it had faced since 1990. The opportunities offered by the Community policy, related i.a. to the expansion of the insurance portfolio to include modern types of insurance covering various types of risks, as well as the traditional form of risk transfer well-known from earlier periods in the history of Polish insurance, such as insurance mutuality, were not fully utilised either. In the post-accession period, it has been accompanied by a significant expansion of the group of structural tools for agricultural risk management, which extend beyond the area of insurance. The reasons for the structural crisis of business insurance in agriculture and related areas (in the years 1990–2004) lay both in statutory reasons (abolishment of the statutory agricultural insurance system) and mistakes in the implementation of the market insurance model in Poland. The latter were particularly manifested in the dogmatic and selective approach to the underlying principle of systemic freedom of contract in agricultural insurance, with a simultaneous approval of the legal and economic obligation to conclude such contracts in other types of insurance cover. The subject of the issues included in the present study (Parts I and II)2 is the analysis of the establishment and implementation of the insurance model of the indicated sectors against the background of legislation and practice in the unified agricultural insurance market during the implementation of processes preparing Poland’s accession to the European Union (EU) – Part I of the study, and then the implementation of the new insurance system in the market model – Part II of the study. The authors’ analysis of the legal and organisational regulations of the agricultural insurance system in force in the years 2004–2022, taking into account the regulations and other instruments of influence offered/implemented by the EU authorities and institutions, proves and confirms the claim that the negative effects of political and market transformations of the early period of market economy have been evident throughout the entire period of Poland’s membership in the EU to date. These were further aggravated by external natural and social phenomena and a range of internal causes3. The latter, related to the conclusion and execution of insurance contracts, are marked by a profound commercialisation of the contractual relationship and imbalance between the parties to the contracts under civil law (in favour of the supply side), which is characteristic of the liberal economy system. By analysing selected legal acts, available reports and scholarly literature on the subject, as well as drawing on their own experience as participants in the business insurance market in Poland, the authors of the study point first and foremost to systemic and, consequently, organisational solutions as one of the basic sources of the crisis of the business insurance system in Polish agriculture and related areas. In view of the above, the aim of Part II of the study is, therefore, first of all to identify the symptoms of irregularities causing increasing exposure to risk, and located in insurance legal relationships established in the agricultural insurance sector after Poland’s accession to the EU. They invariably demonstrate the need for a continuous modernisation of the system, taking into account both the benefits and the problems associated with common agricultural policy and agricultural risk management in the single European market. Key words: insurance crises, Polish agricultural insurance system, agricultural insurance system in the EU, agricultural insurance, risk management in agriculture.

Production and Income Risk Analysis Oil Palm (Elaeis guinensis Jacq) Farming

The purpose of this study was to determine the production and income risks of oil palm plantations in Lubuk Bento Village. This survey was conducted in Lubuk Bento township, Pondok Suguh sub-district, Mukomuko district. The method used was simple random sampling with a sample of 44 farmers out of 290 oil palm farmers in Lubuk Bento Village. Income analysis and CV coefficient of variation studies were used for data analysis. The results showed that the production risk was 0.08 (0.08 &lt;0.5) which means that the production risk of farmers' farms is small. The value of income obtained by farmers amounted to RP. 7,127,209/month, and revenue of RP. 11,110,080/month. The total cost is RP. 3.982. 601/month.

ANALISIS KERJASAMA KELOMPOK TANI PEPAYA CALIFORNIA DENGAN HYPERMART LIPPO PLAZA KENDARI

The objective of this study is to analyze the cooperative pattern, advantages, and disadvantages of the California Papaya Farmer Group with Hypermart Lippo Plaza Kendari. The research utilized a descriptive method with a qualitative approach. The study's informants are California papaya farmers who have a cooperative relationship with Hypermart Lippo Plaza, intentionally selected based on predetermined criteria. Data were collected through observation, interviews, and documentation methods. Data were collected through an interview guide and analyzed using qualitative methods as described by Mills and Huberman, including field notes, information collection, information presentation, and conclusion drawing. The results indicate that the California papaya farmer group cooperated with Hypermart Lippo Plaza Kendari through a sub-contract partnership pattern. The cooperation pattern offers several advantages, including price and market certainty, production continuity, and higher product selling prices for farmers who participate. However, one major shortcoming of this pattern is that Hypermart Lippo Plaza Kendari does not distribute farming risks, meaning that the partner group bears all the risk.

Risk Analysis on the Cassava Value Chain in Central Lampung Regency

The Central Lampung Regency is the center of cassava production in Lampung Province, the Indonesia’s largest cassava-producing province. Cassava has much promise; however, various risks arise throughout the value chain. Risks in the agricultural sector, including cassava farming, are unavoidable and severely impact stakeholders and consumers. This study aimed to identify the risks and the most effective mitigation measures for the cassava value chain. This research was conducted using the House of Risk (HOR) method, divided into two phases: HOR 1 and HOR 2. It involved 286 samples encompassing 263 farmers, six traders, three tapioca industries, eight non-tapioca industries, and six financial institutions. The risks were determined through the Supply Chain Operational Reference (SCOR) model. The results unveiled several priority risks in the cassava value chain, consisting of unpredictable weather changes, scarcity of fertilizers, the absence of farming standards, limited capital, delivery technical problems, price fluctuations, negligence of the workforce, default credit, and lack of customer or farmer knowledge leading to confusion. Furthermore, the risk mitigation actions covered preventing the risks of cassava farming; applying appropriate technology; utilizing production, marketing, and financing system assistance; preventing the risks of cassava trading business; implementing a structured market system; developing access to financing, institutions, and markets; developing marketing infrastructure; developing adaptive farming; monitoring during the credit period; socializing risk management to employees; and providing institutional, financing, and production assistance.

Catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in aquaculture: Evidence from flood prone areas of Bangladesh

Aquaculture is still an emerging industry that is highly dependent on the environment and more unstable than other conventional agricultural operations. Diverse environmental and production hazards must be managed by aquaculture farmers for sustainability. Farmers' decisions on farm operations and risk management are significantly influenced by their risk attitudes and perceptions of risk. However, few empirical studies on risk management have been done, but literature on aquaculture is scarce. In light of this knowledge vacuum, the current study investigated how farmers perceive catastrophic risk and their attitudes toward various sources. The information was gathered using a stratified random sample method, with 300 aquaculture farmers interviewed from two major flood-prone regions in Bangladesh. A cubic utility function and the Equally Likely Certainty Equivalent (ELCE) approach were used to quantify farmers' risk aversion. The risk matrix technique was used to assess farmers' perceptions of risk. The effects of socioeconomic factors on farmers' risk attitudes were examined using a Logit model. Floods, strong rains, and pest and diseases all posed potential productivity hazards and most farmers were risk averse in nature. Age, educational position, income, and land proprietorship were the most important predictors of risk attitude, while social and agricultural characteristics had little influence on farmers' risk perceptions. The study's findings will eventually allow policymakers to forecast the suitable risk management measures for the aquaculture farmers in Bangladesh.

Optimization And Business Risk Analysis On Independent Oil Palm Farming In Muara Tembesi District, Batanghari Regency

This study aims to analyze the optimal use of production factors and business risks in independent palm oil farming. This research was conducted in Jebak, Ampelu, and Ampetu Mudo, Muara Tembesi District villages. The analytical method used is descriptive and quantitative analysis. Descriptive method to see the description of farming. A quantitative method to analyze input usage by using the cobb-Douglas function. The sample villages were determined purposively based on the consideration that the three villages had the largest area of productive plantations (TM). Determination of the number of samples used the census method with a total of 116 respondents. The results showed that (1) palm oil production produced from oil palm farming activities in the study area averaged 15,025.18 kg/ha/year with an average selling price of Rp. 2.208/kg. Farmers operate oil palm farming with a land area of 2.55 ha/farmer, plant age of 10.87 years, fertilizer 243.92 kg/ha/year, herbicides 2.29 liters/ha/year, and labor 88.60 HOK /ha/year. (2). Partially, the variables of land area, plant age, and use of fertilizers have a positive and significant effect on independent oil palm production in Muara Tembesi District, Batanghari Regency, while the variables use of herbicides and use of labor do not have a significant effect on oil palm production. The optimal use of production factors for a land area of 3.82 ha and fertilizer use is 1,053.55 kg/ha/year. (3). Independent oil palm farming is consistently profitable, with a CV value &lt;0.5, the L value &gt; 0, and the R/C value obtained is R/C = 4.45 per farmer and R/C = 4.48 per hectare.

Quantifying systemic and idiosyncratic risks in agriculture: A study of Kazakhstan's grain production volatility

This article aims to propose a method for quantifying the impact of idiosyncratic and systemic risks on agricultural production volatility and to develop techniques and procedures for calculating the number of losses due to systemic risks. The analysis is based on grain yield and price data adjusted for inflation, trends, and acreage in the northern grain-producing region of Kazakhstan from 2005 to 2017. This study presents a method for determining the proportion of systemic and idiosyncratic risk in variations in agricultural production volume. Using a method based on the beta factor can significantly reduce subjectivism and prevent exploitation when assessing and compensating farmers for damages resulting from adverse natural phenomena. The authors believe this is the first study to examine the impact of systemic and idiosyncratic risks on the volatility of production volumes in the grain industry under specific economic conditions in emerging markets.

Возможные организационноэкономические схемы индексного страхования в сельском хозяйстве России

Agricultural risks, given climate change and the crisis of globalization, are increasingly considered as national security risks. In global practice, insurance has proven to be one of the most successful and sustainable ways to manage agricultural risks. In the Russian Federation, agricultural insurance is also state-supported, which emphasizes the importance of containment of agricultural sector hazards. However, the level of insurance penetration in Russian agriculture is insufficient. Indices in agricultural insurance, i.e. insurance in which insurance payments are made not on the basis of the assessment of damage to the insurance object, but on the basis of the behavior of a special index, are used in many countries around the world. The main idea of index insurance is that there is no need to establish the fact and calculate the amount of loss, which makes it especially demanded for those activities in the real sector of the economy where speed, transparency and simplicity of insurance payments are important, as well as the need to attract additional well-trained employees to carry out the insurance process and claims settlement. Reduced workload due to the absence of the need to calculate the amount of loss reduces the time required to process claims. The procedures of claim settlement in index insurance can be called the most simplified for the client and the least costly for the insurance company, but the advantages and positive features of index insurance do not end there. The authors have investigated and systematized the possibilities of index insurance, for which they also considered the successful experience of a country with similar socio-cultural codes, Mexico, in the field of agricultural index insurance. The article also suggests ways to overcome the difficulties of index insurance implementation in the Russian insurance realities. The positive features of the index insurance identified by the authors can make it a promising alternative to classical (traditional) insurance, including for the further development of agricultural insurance with state support.

Analysis of Production Risk in Intensive Chicken Farms – The Case of Kosovo

Abstract Research background The egg production sector in the poultry industry in Kosovo is well developed, with intensive chicken farms that meet 99% of domestic demand (MAFRD, 2021). However, this industry is not without risks. As such, this research investigates the production risks faced by intensive chicken farms. Purpose This study aims to investigate the severity of production risks and familiarize farmers with their levels. Research methodology Both qualitative and quantitative statistical methods were utilized in this study. Indicators are defined to measure the perception of farmers according to the Likert scale ranging from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high). A quantitative analysis is then performed to calculate the interval width, loss distribution, damage standard deviation, and coefficient of variation. Results The qualitative analysis reveals that farmers’ perceptions of production risks are not necessarily related to financial damages. The risk matrix is used to convey the levels and severity of production risks. The quantitative analysis shows that production risks have a high degree of dispersion (82.35%), a high standard deviation (€13,526), and a very high coefficient of variation (204%). Novelty This study is novel in that it is the first to explore production risks in the intensive chicken production industry in Kosovo. Previous studies have only focused on financial risk, market risk, legal risk and human resource risk.

Bundled climate-smart agricultural solutions for smallholder farmers in Sri Lanka

Smallholder farmers are among the most vulnerable to climate shocks in Sri Lanka. Lack of education and technical skills, poverty, risks inherent to agricultural investments, limited assets, and financial capital are major reasons for low investments in enhancing adaptive capacity. The study explores the use of agricultural technologies in improving smallholder resilience to water-related disasters and their opportunities for recovery. We tested four bundled services to promote climate-smart agriculture practices namely weather index insurance (WII), agronomic advisories dissemination via SMS, weather services, and climate-resilient seeds of maize and rice. The integrated solutions are referred to as Bundled Solutions of Index Insurance with Climate Information and Seed Systems (BICSA) to manage agricultural risks in Sri Lanka. The study conducted the bundled solutions in three agroecological regions spread over five districts and covering more than 2,500 farmers in three cropping periods ofMahaandYalaseasons. The results demonstrate that providing bundled solutions significantly protects smallholders against moderate drought events. The satellite-based weather index insurance can offset the long-term consequences of severe yield losses and mitigate the long-term drop in farm productivity. Our findings demonstrate the importance of bundled insurance to mitigate financial risks associated with extreme weather events and enhance resilience to climate change among vulnerable smallholders. It is evident from the study promoting a viable business model among seed companies, insurance companies, and technological partners, along with public institutions such as agricultural extension services can help production-level improvements and develop strategies at both the farm and policy levels that will support a transition to a more resilient farming system.