Firm Risk Research Articles

Monetary easing, lack of investment and financial instability

Low monetary policy rates lower the cost of capital for firms, thereby spurring productive investment. Low interest rates however can also induce the private sector to enter into risky carry trades when they imply that the earned carry more than offsets liquidity risk. Such carry trades and productive investment compete for funds, so much so that the former may crowd out the latter. Below an endogenous lower bound, monetary easing generates only limited capital expenditures that come at the cost of large and destabilizing financial risk-taking. Absent the ability to regulate carry trades, monetary easing must be complemented with a restrictive emergency-lending policy in the form of higher lending rates so as to discourage risk-taking by relatively illiquid firms. Monetary easing, tepid investment response, and rollover risk for liquid firms then arise jointly (and optimally) in equilibrium.

Corporate tax avoidance and firm risk: What role does firm performance play?

Corporate tax avoidance and firm risk: What role does firm performance play?

Females on Boards and Default Risk in the Chinese Real Estate Industry

This study examines the relationship between female directors on boards and default risk in the Chinese real estate industry. While gender diversity is commonly viewed as an effective governance tool in boards to lower the risk of general market firms, we find that there is little influence with female directors in mitigating the default risk in our sample Chinese real estate firms. Nonetheless, once we partition our sample firms into state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs), we observe a significant influence of female directors in lowering the default risk of non-SOEs. We further find that the significant relationship between female board representation and default risk in non-SOEs is attributed to non-SOE firms with high financial constraints and a critical mass of female directors. Our results are robust with a matched sample design, an instrumental variable approach, alternative measures of key variables, and inclusion of additional controls. Overall, our findings highlight the particular circumstances in which board gender diversity is effective in mitigating default risk in the unique environment of the Chinese real estate industry.

The Role of Human Talent Capital in Shaping Firm Value: Evidence from Non-Financial Sector of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX).

Purpose- This study examines the relationship between human talent capital and firm performance, focusing on firm value, growth opportunities, and volatility. The interaction effect of firm size on this association is also explored. Study Design/methodology/approach – This quantitative study uses a fixed effects model; the study analyzes data from 290 firms over 11 years (2013-2023). Diagnostic tests are employed to ensure the robustness of the results. Findings- The findings of the study reveal a significant positive impact of human talent capital on firm value and growth opportunities. Supported by quantitative measures, larger firms show greater utilization of human talent capital. Moreover, human talent capital mitigates cash flow volatility, highlighting its role in firm risk management. Profitability, liquidity, and innovation also significantly affect firm value and growth. Research limitations/implications – The study has several limitations. Firstly, the generalizability of the findings may be constrained by the focus on a specific industry and geographic region. Secondly, the reliance on quantitative data and fixed effects model might overlook qualitative factors influencing the human talent capital phenomenon. Thirdly, external factors such as macroeconomic conditions and regulatory changes could impact the study's findings, deserving further exploration. Research Practical Implications- The study advocates for corporate governance reforms and policy interventions to prioritize human talent capital investments. Financial strategies such as maintaining liquidity and managing leverage are recommended to stabilize firm volatility. Originality/value- This research highlights human talent capital as a key determinant of firm performance, encouraging strategic investments in human talent capital and financial management practices to enhance organizational success.

When banks become pure creditors: The effects of declining shareholding by Japanese banks on bank lending and firms’ risk-taking

This study empirically examines the impact of an exogenous decrease in banks’ shareholding on bank loans and firms’ risk-taking, utilizing a regulatory change in Japan relating to banks’ shareholding as an instrument. We find that an exogenous reduction in a bank’s shareholding decreased the bank’s share of loans in the client firm’s total loans, while it increased the volatility of a firm’s return on assets. The reduction in a bank’s shareholding did not affect firm risk as perceived by equity investors or its borrowing terms. These findings are consistent with the prediction that banks hold equity claims over client firms to gain a competitive advantage, and are weakly compatible with the prediction that banks’ shareholding mitigates shareholder–creditor conflict.

Impact of Ownership Structure and Dividends on Firm Risk and Market Liquidity

This article examines the impact of ownership structure and dividend payouts on idiosyncratic risk and market liquidity using agency, signaling, and bankruptcy theories from an emerging market perspective. The evidence shows that family firms dominate and have concentrated ownership, and dividend payouts are lower among family firms than their counterparts. The idiosyncratic risk is high among firms with higher family ownership concentration. The family ownership concentration and control positively influence the (firm) risk, dividends positively affect the market liquidity, and risk relates negatively to the market liquidity, supporting the entrenchment of the minority shareholders’ proposition that a significant payout leads to a decrease in information asymmetry and a lower level of risk. The study further supports the proposition that information asymmetries are central to elucidating the dynamics of dividend payouts and their effects on firm risk and market liquidity. The evidence confirms that family ownership concentration affects policy decisions, especially ownership control. The paper’s originality lies in factoring ownership concentration when analyzing how payouts affect firm risk and market liquidity from an emerging markets perspective where controlling shareholders enjoy substantial private benefits, whereas minority shareholders have limited protection.

ESG performance and firm risk in the U.S. financial firms

AbstractThis study examines the association between the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance and firm risk in U.S. financial firms. We find a significant negative association between the composite ESG performance and total, idiosyncratic, and systematic risks after controlling for firm and year fixed effects and other risk predictors. We also examine the effect of each pillar of ESG on this relationship and find that “S” and “G” exhibit a significant negative relationship with both systematic and idiosyncratic risks of firms, while “E” is only associated with systematic risk. Lastly, we demonstrate that ESG performance is negatively associated with the extent to which leverage contributes to firm risk, supporting our premise that ESG alleviates financial risk. Overall, we provide empirical evidence of potential risk management benefits of ESG in the financial industry.

Top executive, earnings management and firm risk: Evidence from emerging economies

Using the upper echelon framework, the present study delves into the interplay between the financial styles of senior executives (CEOs and CFOs) and their impact on earnings and risk management within non-financial firms across BRICS countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The period of study is 2011–2022. The analysis utilizes panel data that aligns managers with their respective firms to track the fixed effects of managers on earnings and risk management practices. The overall result of the study underline that the financial styles of top executives, captured through their manager-fixed effects, along with their observable characteristics, exert significant influence on decisions related to earnings and risk management. This study's findings contribute a novel contextual perspective and enhance comprehension within the realm of emerging markets, thereby enriching the existing understanding of the subject matter.

Does reform policy of municipal bonds raise firm risk? A quasi-natural experiment from China

Does reform policy of municipal bonds increase firm risk? We address this question by examining the effects of the ‘Local Issuance and Local Repayment’ (LILR) reform policy launched by the Chinese central government on firm stock return volatility between 2009 and 2019. We find that the LILR reform policy increases the volatility of firms' stock returns. Possible explanations for the effect of reform policy are that it exacerbates firms' financial constraints and reduces the effectiveness of fiscal policy. Consistently, we find that the aggravating effect of reform policy is more pronounced in regions characterized by worse financial environment, worse fiscal condition, firms in growth and decline stages and in downstream and service and support industries. We provide empirical evidence from a Chinese quasi-natural experiment to address the long-term economic development issues of local government debts.

Can the Presence of Big 4 Auditors in IPO Prospectus Reduce Failure Risk?

This paper addresses a void in the research on auditing and initial public offering (IPO) failure by investigating the impact of the Big 4 auditing firms on the likelihood of an IPO failure. This research is the first comprehensive analysis of more than 33,000 global IPOs that either failed or were successful between 1995 and 2019 across a wide range of nations with vastly different regulatory, cultural, and economic settings. A cross-sectional probit regression model is utilized to investigate the influence of hiring the Big 4 auditing firms on IPO failure, building upon prior studies on IPO failure. We found strong evidence that IPO failure rates were diminished by up to 67% when one of the Big 4 auditing firms was involved in auditing the IPO prospectus. For IPO founders, hiring Big 4 auditors before an IPO is a quality signaling strategy that minimizes the risk of a failed IPO by reducing information asymmetry among IPO participants. Our findings provide useful policy implications. Hiring one of the Big 4 auditing firms before an IPO is a reassuring signaling strategy for founders, since it decreases information asymmetry among IPO investors and so lowers the risk of the IPO failing. Primary market investors now have access to credible evidence indicating that backing IPOs from companies that use the Big 4 auditing firms increases the likelihood of such IPOs being listed on stock exchanges and yields positive returns. This is the first time, as far as the academicians are aware, that conclusive evidence has been found of a strong inverse association between the presence of Big 4 audits and failure risk for IPO firms. Our research could be helpful to primary market regulators since it shows how crucial it is to encourage Big 4 audits in IPO companies. The quality work of the Big 4 auditors does lower the risk of failure in the IPO market, which might help owners of small private equities to list their firms on the IPO market, boosting economic growth.

Do Non-Family CEOs Decrease Stock Price Crash Risk in Chinese Family Firms?

Do Non-Family CEOs Decrease Stock Price Crash Risk in Chinese Family Firms?

Corporate carbon performance and firm risk: Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries

This study examines the association between corporate carbon performance (CCP) and firm risk using a sample of 9,212 firm-year observations from 13 countries in the Asia-Pacific region over the period 2002–2021. We also examine the moderating role of the quality of country-level governance in the association between CCP and firm risk. We find that CCP is negatively associated with a firm’s total, idiosyncratic and systematic risk and that country-level governance quality accentuates the negative association between CCP and firm risk. We also find that country-level business culture, emissions trading schemes, climate change performance and attention to carbon emissions accentuate the negative association between CCP and firm risk. Given the growing demands from regulatory bodies for increased transparency on carbon performance, the insights gained from our research hold significant relevance for regulators, policy makers, investors, financial analysts, scholars and businesses.

Navigating the impact: A comprehensive analysis of ESG disclosure consequences through systematic review

AbstractThe purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive and systematic assessment of the literature on the consequences of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure by means of content analyses. Using a systematic approach, a sample of 165 studies was collected from the Web of Science database and evaluated on the basis of econometric and content analyses, including publication trends, geographical distribution, theories and consequence associated with ESG disclosure (investment and innovation of firms, financing cost and method, operations and financial risk of firms, firm performance and value and others), provides some direction for future investigation. According to the analysis, the literature was more interested in the stakeholder theory when examining the effects of ESG disclosure on areas including company innovation and investment, financing costs and methods, financial risk and operations, business performance, and others. Even though most of the literature has focused on firm performance and value, there is still no clear understanding of the relationship. Also, limited work was found on the investment and innovation of firms, and financing cost and method, while the impact of operations and financial risk of firms has yet to be explored. Meanwhile, this study also identified the impact of ESG disclosure on analysts, audit fees, and earnings management as a new research direction. Finally, this study innovates new findings that institutional pressures may have an impact on the consequences of ESG disclosure, a topic not found in previous studies.

Managing firm risk: supply chain board members and the contingent effects of firm network architectures

Managing firm risk: supply chain board members and the contingent effects of firm network architectures

Intellectual capital and firm risk: evidence from an emerging economy

Purpose Intellectual capital (IC) plays a pivotal role in determining corporate risk profiles in the contemporary knowledge era. Consequently, this study aims to analyze the impact of IC on firm risk (FR) among the manufacturing companies listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Design/methodology/approach The authors have adopted the modified value-added intellectual model which combines human capital efficiency, structural capital efficiency, efficiency of capital employed and relational capital efficiency. FR has been used as the dependent variable, measured as the standard deviation of the daily stock prices. The study has used panel data from a sample of 40 manufacturing companies listed in the KSE-100 Index from 2015 to 2021. Findings The results suggest that IC has a significant impact on the FR of manufacturing companies listed on the benchmark index of PSX. Moreover, this relationship is direct; thus, an increase in IC would also increase FR measured by the change in stock prices. Research limitations/implications The current study has only used linear techniques. Future researchers may consider investigating the impact of IC at varying levels of FR using nonlinear techniques. Practical implications This study provides corporate managers and policymakers valuable insight into the need to strike a balance between investment in IC and their FR, particularly in an emerging market context. Originality/value IC is frequently associated with firm performance. However, the relationship between IC and FR has generally been underexplored. This study adds to the strand of limited IC literature by investigating the impact of a modified IC model on FR in an emerging economy.

Multiple large shareholders and asset-liability maturity mismatches

This paper examines the effect of multiple large share ownership on a firm's asset-liability maturity mismatch. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies over the 2007–2022 period, the results of this study suggest that multiple large share ownership is negatively associated with asset-liability maturity mismatches. These results still hold after several endogeneity and sample selection concerns are addressed. Furthermore, the results of mechanism study suggest that multiple large share ownership can mitigate asset-liability maturity mismatches by reducing default risks of firms, firm-level financial constraints, and related-party transactions. These findings provide insights into how ownership structure affects corporate financial decisions.

Firm risk associated with environmental and corporate social disclosure: The moderating role of board gender diversity

AbstractThis study examines the relationship among corporate social and environmental disclosures, firm risk, and board gender diversity. This paper offers fresh insights into the relationship between corporate social and environmental disclosures and gender diversity and firm risk., Using panel data of Chinese nonfinancial A‐share‐listed companies from 2008 to 2020, we discover that the correlation between gender diversity on the board and corporate social and environmental disclosures has a significant negative influence on firm risk. The findings also revealed that the impact of gender diversity and corporate social and environmental disclosures is more pronounced to mitigate firm risk in nonstate‐owned enterprises than in state‐owned enterprises. For robustness, we used the generalized method of moments to control for reverse causality and endogenous variables' existence; the findings are similar to the main results. The study contributes to the literature by offering a contingency approach to examine the relationship between corporate social and environmental disclosures and firm risk and sheds light on the relationship in the context of a developing economy.

Firm systematic risk after the Russia–Ukraine invasion

We explore the systematic risk effects of the Russia–Ukraine war on European non-financial firms during the period 2021Q1–2022Q4. Using quarterly firm-level data, we find that, after the Russia–Ukraine conflict, European non-financial firms experienced a statistically significant increase of systematic risk (Beta). Moreover, we also find that firms with higher foreign sales reduced their exposure to such unprecedented geopolitical event, showing a statistically significant lower Beta in the aftermath of the announcement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Results are robust also using alternative measures of firm risk as well as after running alternative econometric approaches.

The effect of ex ante litigation risk on corporate fraud: Evidence from securities class action act in Korea

Using the phased adoption of the Securities Class Action (SCA) Act in South Korea as a quasi-exogenous event escalating ex ante litigation risks for Korean firms, we explore the effect of heightened litigation risks on firms’ involvement in fraudulent activities. We find that, following the implementation of the SCA Act, companies affected by the new legislation are more likely to reduce instances of corporate fraud compared to those not bound by the Act. These results suggest that the introduction of the SCA Act effectively mitigates corporate fraud by amplifying the ex ante litigation risks faced by the firms.

Unmasking the carbon conundrum: How emissions impact stock price crash risk

This study examines the influence of carbon risk on stock price crash risk. Using a comprehensive dataset of 3,417 US companies from 2006 to 2021, we provide evidence that carbon risk is significantly linked to a higher crash risk for firms. Moreover, our findings suggest that this positive association is more pronounced during the Democratic presidency and to companies operating in carbon-intensive industries. The main results are consistent after conducting endogeneity and several robustness tests.