Risk Factors For Early Rebleeding Research Articles

Short-term efficacy and safety of endoscopic injection of low dose of sclerotherapy and cyanoacrylate injection for type GOV1 gastric varices combined with endoscopic variceal ligation for esophageal varices.

To explore the short-term efficacy and safety of endoscopic low dose injection of sclerotherapy and cyanoacrylate for gastric varices (GVs) combined with endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) for esophageal varices (EVs) in cirrhosis with type GOV1 varices. A total of 521 patients with cirrhosis and GOV1 varices, who were divided into emergence endoscopy treatment layer and secondary prophylaxis for rebleeding layer, were selected. All patients underwent combined therapy or EVL alone (ligation therapy) for the treatment of type GOV1 varices. The baseline between the two groups with significant differences were used as covariates for 1:1 propensity score matching. The early rebleeding rate was compared and the risk factors for rebleeding were identified in each layer. After propensity score matching, a total of 122 patients were included in the emergence endoscopy treatment layer, and 234 patients were included in the secondary prophylaxis layer. The early rebleeding rates in the combined therapy group vs. ligation therapy group was 4.92% vs. 16.39% (P = 0.04) and 2.56% vs. 1.71% (P = 0.65) in the emergency endoscopy layer and in the secondary prophylaxis layer, respectively. The median length of hospital stay after endoscopy was 8days vs. 9days (P = 0.004) and 7days vs. 6days (P = 0.47), in each layer respectively. There was no significant difference in the adverse reactions of endoscopic treatment. EVL treatment (OR: 3.84; 95% CI: 1.05-13.96; P = 0.04) and discontinuation of NSBB (non-selective beta-blocker) use after discharge (OR: 3.58; 95% CI: 1.20-10.67; P = 0.02) were independent risk factors for early rebleeding after endoscopy in the emergency endoscopy layer. Combined therapy is comparable with ligation therapy in the short-term efficacy and safety of in cirrhosis patients with secondary prophylaxis for rebleeding while it is superior to EVL alone in cirrhosis in the emergency endoscopy treatment as it could reduce the early rebleeding rate and shorten the length of hospital stay.

Correlation between diameter of esophageal varices and early rebleeding following endoscopic variceal ligation: a multicenter retrospective study based on artificial intelligence-based endoscopic virtual rule.

Bleeding following endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) may occur as a result of numerous factors, including a diameter of esophageal varices (EV) that is too large to be completely ligated. The present study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence-based endoscopic virtual ruler (EVR) to measure the diameter of EV with a view to finding more suitable cases for EVL. The present study was a multicenter retrospective study that included a total of 1,062 EVLs in 727 patients with liver cirrhosis with EV, who underwent EVL from April 2016 to March 2023. Patients were divided into early rebleeding (n = 80) and non-rebleeding groups (n = 982) according to whether postoperative bleeding occurred at 6 weeks. The characteristics of patient baseline data, the status of rebleeding at 6 weeks after surgery and the survival status at 6 weeks after rebleeding were analyzed. The early rebleeding rate following 1,062 EVL procedures was 7.5%, and the mortality rate at 6 weeks after bleeding was 16.5%. Results of the one-way binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the risk factors for early rebleeding following EVL included: high TB (P = 0.009), low Alb (P = 0.001), high PT (P = 0.004), PVT (P = 0.026), HCC (P = 0.018), high Child-Pugh score (P < 0.001), Child-Pugh grade C(P < 0.001), high MELD score(P = 0.004), Japanese variceal grade F3 (P < 0.001), diameter of EV (P < 0.001), and number of ligature rings (P = 0.029). Results of the multifactorial binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that Child-Pugh grade C (P = 0.007), Japanese variceal grade F3 (P = 0.009), and diameter of EV (P < 0.001) may exhibit potential in predicting early rebleeding following EVL. ROC analysis demonstrated that the area under curve (AUC) for EV diameter was 0.848, and the AUC for Japanese variceal grade was 0.635, which was statistically significant (P < 0.001). Thus, results of the present study demonstrated that EV diameter was more optimal in predicting early rebleeding following EVL than Japanese variceal grade criteria. The cut-off value of EV diameter was calculated to be 1.35 cm (sensitivity, 70.0%; specificity, 89.2%). If the diameter of EV is ≥1.4 cm, there may be a high risk of early rebleeding following EVL surgery; thus, we recommend caution with EVL.

A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Early Rebleeding After Endoscopic Treatment of Esophagogastric Variceal Hemorrhage.

Early rebleeding is a significant complication of endoscopic treatment for esophagogastric variceal hemorrhage (EGVH). However, a reliable predictive model is currently lacking. To identify risk factors for rebleeding within 6weeks and establish a nomogram for predicting early rebleeding after endoscopic treatment of EVGH. Demographic information, comorbidities, preoperative evaluation, endoscopic features, and laboratory tests were collected from 119 patients who were first endoscopic treatment for EGVH. Independent risk factors for early rebleeding were determined through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the nomogram were assessed and compared with the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), Child-Pugh, and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scores using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses (DCA). Early rebleeding occurred in 39 patients (32.8%) within 6weeks after endoscopic treatment. Independent early rebleeding factors included gastric variceal hemorrhage (GVH), concomitant hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), international normalized ratio (INR), and creatinine. The nomogram demonstrated exceptional calibration and discrimination capability. The area under the curve for the nomogram was 0.758 (95% CI 0.668-0.848), and it was validated at 0.71 through cross-validation and bootstrapping validation. The DCA and ROC curves demonstrated that the nomogram outperformed the MELD, Child-Pugh, and ALBI scores. Compared with existing prediction scores, the nomogram demonstrated superior discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability for predicting rebleeding in patients with EGVH after endoscopic treatment. Therefore, it may assist clinicians in the early implementation of aggressive treatment and follow-up.

Can Endothelin-1 Levels in Patients with Esophageal Variceal Bleeding at Admission Predict Rebleeding Within 5 Days?

Portal hypertension complicating liver cirrhosis is associated with vascular resistance, possibly due to overexpression of humoral vasoconstrictors, including endothelin. The study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of serum endothelin-1 levels as a noninvasive predictor of early esophageal rebleeding (within 5 days) following endoscopic treatment. Of the patients presented to the endoscopy unit at Mansoura University Hospital, 50 patients were chosen for this study on the basis of endoscopically proven acute esophageal variceal bleeding consequent to hepatitis C viral infection complicated by liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension. Routine laboratory parameters and serum endothelin-1 levels were assessed prior to endoscopic treatment. Patients were divided into 2 groups depending on the development of early postendoscopic rebleeding. Group A consisted of 16 patients who developed rebleeding, while group B included 34 patients who did not. Statistical analysis was performed to determine the predictors of rebleeding. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that endothelin-1 level (P < .001) and serum albumin level (P = .04) were independent risk factors for early rebleeding. The most efficient cutoff value for endothelin-1 levels in predicting variceal rebleeding within the 5 days after endoscopic intervention was 65.29, which had an 88.2% specificity, 87.5% sensitivity, 88% accuracy, and area under the curve value of 0.89. In addition, hemoglobin, albumin, and creatinine levels were significantly different between bleeding and nonrebleeding groups (P = .03, P = .014, and P <.001, respectively), as was the duration of hospital stay (P < .001). Serum endothelin-1 levels appear to be a reliable, practical, noninvasive predictor of early variceal rebleeding and related comorbidities such as the severity of kidney affection and duration of hospital stay.

Development of risk scores for early and late recurrence of colonic diverticular hemorrhage.

Colonic diverticular hemorrhage (CDH) often recurs. Although several studies have suggested that early rebleeding (ER) and late rebleeding (LR) should be treated independently, and several ER/LR risk factors have been identified, an integrated system for risk evaluation is still lacking. This study aimed to develop risk scores for early and late rebleeding of CDH. This two-center, retrospective cohort study included 218 patients between 2008 and 2021. ER and LR risk factors were identified using multivariate analysis, and risk scores were developed using the odds ratios of each risk factor. The ER and LR rates were 32.6 and 25.7%, respectively. High heart rate on admission, early endoscopy from the visit, no bowel preparation and no endoscopic treatment were identified as risk factors for ER. On the other hand, LR risk factors included a history of hypertension and diabetes, early endoscopy from the visit, and the use of endoscopic clips. The ER risk score [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.71] was highly sensitive (90.3%) at a cutoff point of 6 and highly specific (98.0%) at a cutoff point of 15. The LR risk score (AUC = 0.70) was highly sensitive (91.1%) at a cutoff point of 2.6 and highly specific (88.3%) at a cutoff point of 7.1. The ER and LR risk scores were established for the first time, and they can divide CDH patients based on their risk of rebleeding as well as provide clinicians with practical information about the CDH management.

Factors associated with bleeding after endoscopic variceal ligation in children.

Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is a widely accepted treatment for esophagogastric varices in patients with portal hypertension (PHT). It is used for urgent treatment and prophylactic treatment of esophagogastric varices in pediatric as well as adult patients. However, major life-threatening adverse events such as early rebleeding can occur. Although early rebleeding after EVL among children and adolescents has been reported, the risk factors remain obscure. This study evaluated the risk factors for early rebleeding after EVL in children and adolescents. The subjects were children and adolescents (<18years) with PHT who underwent EVL for esophagogastric varices. Early rebleeding was defined as hematemesis, active bleeding, or blood retention in the stomach, confirmed by esophagogastroduodenoscopy from 2h to 5days after EVL. A total of 50 EVL sessions on 22 patients were eligible for this study. There were four episodes of early rebleeding. No other major adverse event has occurred. Multivariate analysis showed that EVL implemented at cardiac varices just below the esophagogastric junction (EGJ), within 5mm from the EGJ, is the independent factor for a higher risk of early rebleeding: odds ratio 18.2 (95% confidence interval: 1.40-237.0), P=0.02. Children and adolescents who undergo EVL for cardiac varices just below the EGJ have a higher risk of early rebleeding than those who do not.

Risk factor analysis for early rebleeding after endoscopic treatment for colonic diverticular bleeding with stigmata of recent hemorrhage.

Background and AimColonic diverticular bleeding is a common cause of acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding. Endoscopic hemostasis is generally selected as the first‐line treatment; however, a considerable number of patients experience early rebleeding after endoscopic treatment. We investigated the risk factors for early rebleeding after endoscopic treatment.MethodsWe retrospectively evaluated the data of 142 consecutive patients who underwent endoscopic treatment (endoscopic clipping or endoscopic band ligation) for colonic diverticular bleeding with stigmata of recent hemorrhage between April 2012 and April 2020. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the statistical relationship between patient characteristics and the incidence of early rebleeding occurring within 30 days after endoscopic treatment.ResultsOf 142 patients, early rebleeding was detected in 34 (23.9%) patients. According to univariate analysis, platelet count of <10 × 104/μL, bleeding from the left‐sided colon, and endoscopic clipping usage were associated with early rebleeding (P < 0.05). The subsequent multivariate logistic regression analysis identified bleeding from the left‐sided colon (odds ratio [OR], 4.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.73–10.0; P = 0.001) and endoscopic clipping usage (OR, 2.92; 95% CI, 1.21–7.00; P = 0.017) as the independent risk factors for early rebleeding.ConclusionsBleeding from the left‐sided colon and endoscopic clipping usage were the risk factors for early rebleeding after endoscopic treatment. Using endoscopic band ligation was associated with a decreased risk for early rebleeding compared with the use of endoscopic clipping, indicating that endoscopic band ligation was a preferable endoscopic modality to prevent early recurrent bleeding.

Risk factors for early rebleeding after endoscopic therapy for esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients

Objective To investigate the risk factors for early rebleeding after endoscopic ligation or sclerotherapy for esophageal variceal bleeding in cirrhotic patients. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 153 cirrhotic patients with esophageal variceal bleeding who underwent endoscopic ligation or sclerotherapy in Beijing YouAn Hospital, Capital Medical University, from May 2017 to May 2019, and according to the presence or absence of rebleeding from 72 hours to 6 weeks after endoscopic therapy, the patients were divided into rebleeding group and non-rebleeding group. A logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate independent risk factors for early rebleeding. The t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test or the Fisher's exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. Results Early rebleeding rate was 24.8% (38/153). Compared with the non-rebleeding group, the rebleeding group had a significantly lower albumin (Alb) and significantly higher activated partial thromboplastin time and prothrombin time (all P Conclusion Portal vein thrombosis, massive ascites, Child-Pugh C liver cirrhosis, and hypoproteinemia are independent risk factors for early rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophageal variceal bleeding, which should be taken seriously in clinical practice.

The Presence of Ascites Affects the Predictive Value of HVPG on Early Rebleeding in Patients with Cirrhosis.

Background and Aims Gastroesophageal variceal bleeding is a serious complication of portal hypertension in cirrhotic patients and could be predicted by hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG). However, whether the presence of ascites affects the prognostic value of HVPG for patients with acute variceal bleeding is still unknown. This retrospective study is aimed at investigating the influence of ascites on predictive performance of HVPG for early rebleeding in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. Methods In this retrospective study, a total of 148 patients with cirrhosis hospitalized for acute variceal bleeding who underwent HVPG measurement and endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) for the prevention of rebleeding were included. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and logistical regression method were employed to analyze the predictive performance of HVPG for early rebleeding. The locally weighted scatterplot smoothing approach was adopted to assess the monotonicity between bleeding risk and HVPG. Results A significantly higher HVPG level was observed in patients with early rebleeding compared to patients without rebleeding in the nonascites cohort. When using HVPG to predict early rebleeding, there was a lower area under curve in the ascites cohort compared to the nonascites cohort. HVPG was recognized as a risk factor for early rebleeding by a logistic regression model only in the nonascites cohort. An overall monotonicity in the trend of change in HVPG and risk for early rebleeding was observed in the nonascites cohort solely. Conclusion The predictive value of HVPG for early rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis that developed acute variceal bleeding is hindered by the presence of ascites.

Prognostic Factors Associated with Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients with Bleeding Varices

Abstract Objective Bleeding gastroesophageal varices are a cause of high mortality among cirrhotic patients. Aim The aim of this study was to study prognostic factors for mortality in cirrhosis associated with variceal bleeding. Patients and Methods This prospective study was conducted on 100 cirrhotic patients admitted to the Tanta University Hospital with an acute first variceal bleeding episode. Baseline clinical, laboratory, and endoscopic findings were recorded at presentation. Results During the first 6 weeks 15 patients died, 3 following the initial bleed and 12 after an early rebleed. At 6 months, a further 21 patients had died. Statistical analysis utilizing the baseline data revealed that high early death rate was associated with number of blood units transfused, lower systolic blood pressure, thrombocytopenia, increased serum creatinine and international normalized ratio (INR). High MELD, AIMS56, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) and ROCKall scores were risk factors for mortality. Risk factors for early rebleeding included presence of diabetes mellitus, leucocytosis, high Child score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), AIMS56, and sepsis-associated organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores. A high Child score, presence of ascites, and associations such as hepatic encephalopathy and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, leucocytosis, elevated alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, bilirubin, INR, and creatinine as well as low albumin were associated with decreased survival. Conclusion High MELD, AIMS56, APACHE II, and ROCKall scores were risk factors for mortality after acute variceal bleeding. High death rate during the first 6 weeks is associated with anemia, hypotension, thrombocytopenia, increased serum creatinine, and INR. Decreased survival at 6 months is associated with increased Child score, presence of ascites and associations such as hepatic encephalopathy and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.

Risk factors of early rebleeding in the endoscopic management of colonic diverticular bleeding.

The risk factors for early rebleeding following the management of colonic diverticular bleeding (CDB) are unclear. This study aimed to determine the risk factors for early rebleeding following initial colonoscopy. Overall, 370 patients with CDB were divided as having presumptive (229) or definite CDB with stigmata of recent hemorrhage (141) on the basis of initial colonoscopy. Definite CDB cases were treated by either endoscopic clipping (EC) or endoscopic band ligation (EBL) as a first-line treatment. Time-to-event analysis for early rebleeding was performed by Kaplan-Meier methods with log-rank test between the three groups (presumptive, EC, and EBL). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify risk factors for early rebleeding. There were 38 and 103 patients in the EC and EBL groups, respectively. Early rebleeding developed in 61 cases (16.5%). The cumulative incidence rates of early rebleeding at 1, 5, and 30days were 7.7%, 16.4%, and 17.9% in the presumptive group; 1.9%, 7.0%, and 9.5% in the EBL group; and 2.6%, 34.9%, and 37.7% in the EC group, respectively (log-rank test, P=0.00059). Moreover, 90.2% of early rebleeding occurred within 5days. Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was marginally lower in the presumptive group (HR=0.50; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-1.01; P=0.052) and significantly lower in the EBL-treated group than in the EC group (HR=0.21; 95% confidence interval, 0.09-0.50; P=0.0004). Most early rebleeding occurred within 5days after initial colonoscopy. EC was less effective than EBL in terms of early rebleeding.

Aneurysm characteristics and risk of rebleeding after subarachnoid haemorrhage.

IntroductionKnowledge of risk factors for rebleeding after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage can help tailoring ultra-early aneurysm treatment. Previous studies have identified aneurysm size and various patient-related risk factors for early (≤24 h) rebleeding, but it remains unknown if aneurysm configuration is also a risk factor. We investigated whether irregular shape, aspect- and bottleneck ratio of the aneurysm are independent risk factors for early rebleeding after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage.Patients and methodsFrom a prospectively collected institutional database, we investigated data from consecutive aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage patients who were admitted ≤24 h after onset between December 2009 and January 2015. The admission computed tomographic angiogram was used to assess aneurysm size and configuration. With Cox regression, we calculated stepwise-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for irregular shape, aspect ratio ≥1.6 mm and bottleneck ratio ≥1.6 mm.ResultsOf 409 included patients, 34 (8%) patients had in-hospital rebleeding ≤24 h after ictus. Irregular shape was an independent risk factor for rebleeding (HR: 3.9, 95% CI: 1.3–11.3) after adjustment for age, sex, PAASH score, aneurysm location, aneurysm size and aspect- and bottleneck ratio. Aspect ratio ≥1.6 mm (HR: 2.3, 95% CI: 0.8–6.5) and bottleneck ratio ≥1.6 mm (HR: 1.7, 95% CI: 0.8–3.6) were associated with an increased risk of rebleeding, but were not independent risk factors after multivariable adjustment.ConclusionsIrregular shape is an independent risk factor for early rebleeding. However, since the majority of subarachnoid haemorrhage patients have an irregular aneurysm, additional risk factors have to be found for aneurysm treatment prioritisation.

Risk factor analysis for early rebleeding in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding

Objective To explore the risk factors for early rebleeding in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). Methods From June 2006 to May 2017, a total of 1 210 hospitalized patients with PUB from The General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University were enrolled. Totally 1 040 patients with bleeding stopped after the treatment were taken as the control group. And 170 patients with early rebleeding were as the rebleeding group. The clinical data of the patients in two groups were analyzed. Chi-square test, t-test and multivariate factors analysis were performed for statistical analysis. Results Between control group and rebleeding group, there were statistical significances in gender, age, place of residence, hematemesis, shock, volume of blood transfusion, anticoagulant use, combined diseases, hemoglobin level, albumin level, urea nitrogen, neutrophil ratio, platelet count, ulcer location, maximum ulcer diameter, Forrest classification and endoscopic treatment (all P<0.05). The rate of endoscopic hemostasis of rebleeding group (92.56%, 112/121) was lower than that of control group (98.70%, 228/231), and the difference was statistically significant (χ2=13.609, P=0.001). The result of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Forrest classification (odds ratio(OR)=7.735, P<0.01), hemoglobin (OR=7.332, P=0.040), shock (OR=5.245, P<0.01) and ulcer size (OR=2.360, P=0.029) were independent risk factors for rebleeding in patients with PUB. The effect of Forrest classification better than hemoglobin, hemoglobin better than shock and shock better than ulcer size in assessing the risk of rebleeding. Conclusions Forrest classification, hemoglobin, shock, ulcer size are the risk factors for rebleeding in patients with PUB. Endoscopic hemostasis can reduce the risk of rebleeding. Key words: Peptic ulcer hemorrhage; Rebleeding; Risk factors

Risk factors analysis of early rebleeding after endoscopic treatment of esophageal varices

Objective To investigate the risk factors of early rebleeding after endoscopic treatment of esophageal varices. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of 384 cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices. The factors of early rebleeding group[n=36 (9.4%)] and non-bleeding group (n=348) were compared by single factor analysis and multivariate analysis of Logistic regression. Results Single factor analysis showed that there were differences between the two groups in cirrhosis with hepatocellular carcinoma, Child-Pugh classification, Child-Pugh score, ascites volume, portal vein thrombosis, portal vein width, portal hypertensive gastropathy, shapes and numbers of varicose veins, numbers of varicose vein ligation, varicose vein red syndrome, albumin, total bilirubin, prothrombin time, prothrombin activity and platelet number. Further multivariate analysis showed that mass ascites (P=0.000, OR=7.614, 95%CI: 3.590-16.147), portal vein thrombosis (P=0.003, OR=2.867, 95%CI: 1.429-5.750), portal hypertensive gastropathy (P=0.000, OR=6.212, 95%CI: 3.036-12.711), and Child-Pugh C (P=0.008, OR=3.078, 95%CI: 1.338-7.083) were independent risk factors of early rebleeding after endoscopic treatment. Conclusion The early rebleeding rate was high after endoscopic treatment of esophageal varices. Patients with massive ascites, portal vein thrombosis, portal hypertensive gastropathy and Child-Pugh C should be highly vigilant for early rebleeding. Key words: Esophageal varices; Endoscopic variceal ligation; Endoscopic injection sclerotherapy; Early rebleeding

Risk factors contributing to early and late recurrence of haemoptysis after bronchial artery embolisation.

To identify the risk factors for early and late relapse of haemoptysis after bronchial artery embolisation (BAE). We performed a retrospective study of 255 patients with haemoptysis who underwent BAE from January 2009 to June 2016 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China. Using a Cox regression model, risk factors contributing to early (within the first month) and late (>1 month) recurrence were analysed. We censored recurrence-free patients at 1 month and patients without rebleeding after 1 month. The cumulative recurrence rate at 1, 6, 12, 24 and 48 months was respectively 14.9%, 16.9%, 20.6%, 31.0% and 39.9%, with a median follow-up of 574 days. Early relapse occurred in 38 of 255 patients, while late recurrence was found in 45 of the remaining 217 patients. The risk factors related to early recurrence were lung destruction on computed tomography of the chest and involvement of non-bronchial systemic arteries. The risk factors associated with late recurrence were tuberculosis sequelae, the presence of shunts and the use of gelfoam as an embolisation material. The variables related to incomplete embolisation were the risk factors for early rebleeding. The variables associated with same-vessel recanalisation and formation of a new collateral circulation influenced late recurrence.

Risk factors for early rebleeding after esophageal variceal ligation in patients with liver cirrhosis

Objective: To investigate the risk factors for early rebleeding after esophageal variceal ligation (EVL) through a multicenter retrospective study. Methods: A total of 3289 patients who were hospitalized and underwent EVL in 17 upper second-class hospitals or hospitals of higher classes from January 1999 to May 2015 were collected and screened according to the exclusion criteria. A total of 2531 patients were screened out, and a retrospective analysis was performed for their clinical data including age, sex, endoscopic findings, and results of laboratory examination (liver function, biochemical results, routine blood test, and coagulation function) to collect related data. According to the presence or absence of rebleeding within 1 month after EVL, the patients were divided into rebleeding group and non-rebleeding group. SPSS22.0 software was used for independent t-test and one-way analysis of variance, and P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: In the 2531 patients who underwent EVL, the rate of early rebleeding after EVL was 6.6%, and the mortality rate was 12.0%. The results showed that sex (P = 0.014), number of veins with varices (P = 0.203), prothrombin time (P = 0.001), prothrombin activity (P = 0.014), albumin (P = 0), total bilirubin (P = 0.011), aspartate aminotransferase (P = 0.004), white blood cell count (P = 0.342), hepatic encephalopathy (P = 0.021), ascites (P = 0.027), Child-Pugh class (P = 0), Child-Pugh score (P = 0), glue injection for gastric varices (P = 0.521), gastric varices (P = 0.32), shunt (P = 0.174), number of ligation points (P = 0.001), number of ligation times (P = 0.024), number of times of hematemesis before treatment (P = 0), number of times of tarry stool (P = 0.008), and volume of blood in hematemesis before treatment (P = 0) were risk factors for early rebleeding after EVL. The regression analysis showed that male sex, a Child-Pugh score of >7.2, and volume of blood in hematemesis before treatment were independent risk factors for early rebleeding after EVL, while an albumin concentration of > 31.5 g/L was the protective factor. Conclusion: EVL has a good therapeutic effect in esophageal variceal rebleeding. Among all the factors analyzed, male sex, a Child-Pugh score of > 7.2, and volume of blood in hematemesis before treatment are independent risk factors for early rebleeding after EVL, and an albumin concentration of > 31.5 g/L is a protective factor.

Risk factors determining the need for second-look endoscopy for peptic ulcer bleeding after endoscopic hemostasis and proton pump inhibitor infusion.

Background and study aims: The need for routine second-look endoscopy in cases of peptic ulcer bleeding remains uncertain. We investigated risk factors related to the need for second-look endoscopy after endoscopic hemostasis and proton pump inhibitor (PPI) infusion. Patients and methods: We prospectively enrolled 316 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding after endoscopic hemostasis. Second-look endoscopy was scheduled after 72-hour PPI infusion (Day-3 subgroup) or one day early (Day-2 subgroup). If early rebleeding developed within 3 days, emergent second-look endoscopy was conducted. Risk factors for early rebleeding (use of E2nd score to predict the need for early second-look endoscopy) and persistent major stigmata in the Day-3 subgroup (use of R2nd score to predict the need for routine second-look endoscopy) were analyzed using univariable and multivariable regression. Results: Excluding 10 of 316 patients with early rebleeding, the rate of persistent major stigmata was lower in the Day-3 subgroup than in the Day-2 subgroup (4.8 % vs. 15.4 %, P = 0.002). Endoscopic epinephrine-injection monotherapy and hypoalbuminemia < 3.0 g/dL were two independent risk factors for early rebleeding (P ≤ 0.05). The Forrest Ia-Ib type and hypoalbuminemia < 3.5 g/dL were two independent risk factors for persistent major stigmata on the day-3 second-look endoscopy (P < 0.05). The E2nd score was highly accurate for prediction of early rebleeding (AUROC 0.86; 95 % CI, 0.73~0.99), and the R2nd score could predict persistent major stigmata at second-look endoscopy (AUROC 0.84; 95 % CI, 0.69~0.99). Conclusions: For patients with peptic ulcer bleeding, E2nd and R2nd scores can indicate the need for early and routine second-look endoscopy, respectively(Trial registration identifier: NCT02197039).

Prediction of Early Rebleeding and Mortality after Acute Esophageal Variceal Hemorrhage among Yemeni Patients in Major Hospitals—Sana’a

Background and aims: Acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) is the most serious encountered complication of liver cirrhosis and carries high mortality rate. Several risk factors that predict early rebleeding and mortality have been studied and there is no similar study in our country, so the aim of this study was to identify the risk factors of early rebleeding and mortality after bleeding episode in cirrhotic patients in Yemen. Patients and Method: It was a prospective study of cirrhotic patients with AVH who were admitted to the main public hospitals in Sana’a between April 2014 and March 2015. Demographic information, medical histories, physical examination findings, and laboratory test results were collected. Endoscopic and pharmacologic treatment was performed. The patients were followed up since admission and up to 6 weeks for the occurrence of rebleeding and mortality after the acute attack. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for rebleeding and mortality. Survival analysis was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Result: A total of 102 patients were analyzed. 26 patients (25.5%) rebleeded within 6 weeks period. The predictive factors significantly associated with rebleeding within 6 weeks period in univariate analysis were clot on varix at index endoscope (P - 47.29, P = 0.001) and high serum bilirubin (- 1.19, P = 0.01). Sixteen patients died (15.7%) within 6 weeks period. Predictors of mortality with significant difference in univariate analysis were hypovolemic shock (P = 0.001), high WBCs count (P - 1.41, P 9/l (OR: 1.2, CI: 1.02 - 1.40, P 9/l.

Risk factors for early rebleeding after endoscopic band ligation for colonic diverticular hemorrhage

Background and study aims: Endoscopic band ligation (EBL) has been used for hemostasis of colonic diverticular hemorrhage. However, early rebleeding (< 30 days after EBL) has been reported in some cases. The aim of this study was to elucidate risk factors for early rebleeding after EBL in treatment of colonic diverticular hemorrhage. Patients and methods: A total of 101 patients with definite diverticular hemorrhage treated using EBL from June 2009 to October 2014 were included in the retrospective cohort study and divided into rebleeding and non-rebleeding groups, depending on the presence or absence of early rebleeding. Patients’ ages, comorbid diseases, stigmata of recent hemorrhage (SRH) [active bleeding (AB), non-bleeding visible vessel (NBVV), or adherent clot (AC)], locations of bleeding diverticula, and eversions of the diverticula after EBL were retrospectively evaluated in each group. Results: Early rebleeding occurred in 15 cases. The median time (range) of early rebleeding occurrence was 5 days (range, 2 h to 26 days). Early rebleeding could be managed conservatively and/or endoscopically, except in one case in which surgery was done. Multivariate analysis revealed that age under 50 (adjusted OR, 8.7; 95 % CI 1.6 – 52.5; P = 0.014) and AB (adjusted OR, 4.21; 95 % CI 1.15 – 18.1; P = 0.03) were shown to be significant risk factors. The right side of the colon carried less risk than did the left side (adjusted OR, 0.21; 95 % CI 0.04 – 0.84; P = 0.028). Conclusions: Younger age, AB of SRH, and leftsided lesions were identified as the risk factors for early rebleeding after EBL in the treatment of colonic diverticular hemorrhage.

Risk factors for early rebleeding and mortality in acute variceal hemorrhage.

To investigate the risk factors for 6-wk rebleeding and mortality in acute variceal hemorrhage (AVH) patients treated by percutaneous transhepatic variceal embolization (PTVE). A retrospective cohort study of AVH patients who had undergone PTVE treatment was conducted between January 2010 and December 2012. Demographic information, medical histories, physical examination findings, and laboratory test results were collected. The PTVE procedure was performed as a rescue therapy for patients who failed endoscopic and pharmacologic treatment. Survival analysis was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. The multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox regression test to identify independent risk factors for rebleeding and mortality. One hundred and one patients were included; 71 were males and the average age was 51 years. Twenty-one patients rebled within 6 wk. Patients with high-risk stigmata, PTVE with trunk obliteration, and a hepatic vein pressure gradient (HVPG) ≥ 20 mmHg were at increased risk for rebleeding (OR = 5.279, 95%CI: 2.782-38.454, P = 0.003; OR = 4.309, 95%CI: = 2.144-11.793, P < 0.001; and OR = 1.534, 95%CI: 1.062-2.216, P = 0.022, respectively). Thirteen patients died within 6 wk. A model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 18 and an HVPG ≥ 20 mmHg were associated with 6-wk mortality (OR = 2.162, 95%CI: 1.145-4.084, P = 0.017 and OR = 1.423, 95%CI: 1.222-1.657, P < 0.001, respectively). MELD score and HVPG in combination allow for early identification of patients with AVH who are at substantially increased risk of death over the short term.