Risk Factors For Severe Outcomes Research Articles

The relationship between obesity, hemoglobin A1c and the severity of COVID-19 at an urban tertiary care center in New York City: a retrospective cohort study

ObjectivesTo determine if obesity and diabetes are risk factors for severe outcomes in COVID-19 and to compare patient outcomes in those two conditions.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingUrban tertiary care center in New...

Clinical and laboratory characteristics of severe and non-severe patients with COVID-19: A retrospective cohort study in China.

BackgroundPatients diagnosed with the novel coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) who develop severe symptoms need to be determined in advance so that appropriate treatment strategies are in place.MethodsTo determine the clinic features of patients diagnosed definitely with COVID‐19 and evaluate risk factors for severe outcome, the medical records of hospitalized patients were reviewed retrospectively by us and data were compiled. Laboratory data from 90 cases were analyzed, and COVID‐19 patients were classified into two groups (severe and non‐severe) based on the severity.ResultsSevere COVID‐19 cases on admission had higher leukocyte and neutrophil counts, neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR), D‐dimer, fibrinogen, C‐reactive protein levels, and lower lymphocyte counts compared with those of non‐severe cases (p < 0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) for leukocyte counts, neutrophil counts, and levels of C‐reactive protein was 0.778, 0.831, and 0.800, respectively. The thresholds were 7.70 × 109/L for leukocyte counts, 5.93 × 10⁹/L for neutrophil counts, and 75.07 mg/L for C‐reactive protein, respectively. Logistic regression analyses indicated that higher white blood cell (WBC) counts (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.05–1.71), neutrophil counts (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.06–1.73), and C‐reactive protein levels (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.0–1.04) were several predictive factors for severe outcome. Severe COVID‐19 patients had a reduction in WBC counts, D‐dimer, C‐reactive protein, and fibrinogen upon discharge from hospital, while lymphocyte counts increased (p < 0.05).ConclusionCounts of WBC, neutrophil, and lymphocyte, NLR, and levels of C‐reactive protein, D‐dimer, and fibrinogen are helpful for prediction of the deterioration trend in patients diagnosed with COVID‐19.

The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain: characterisation of cases and risk factors for severe outcomes, as at 27 April 2020.

BackgroundThe first wave of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic spread rapidly in Spain, one of Europe’s most affected countries. A national lockdown was implemented on 15 March 2020.AimTo describe reported cases and the impact of national lockdown, and to identify disease severity risk factors.MethodsNational surveillance data were used to describe PCR-confirmed cases as at 27 April 2020. We compared case characteristics by severity categories (hospitalisation, admission to intensive care unit (ICU), death) and identified severity risk factors using multivariable regression.ResultsThe epidemic peaked on 20 March. Of 218,652 COVID-19 cases, 45.4% were hospitalised, 4.6% were admitted to ICU and 11.9% died. Among those who died, 94.8% had at least one underlying disease. Healthcare workers (HCWs) represented 22.9% of cases. Males were more likely to have severe outcomes than females. Cardiovascular disease was a consistent risk factor. Patients with pneumonia had higher odds of hospitalisation (odds ratio (OR): 26.63; 95% confidence interval (CI): 25.03–28.33). The strongest predictor of death was age ≥ 80 years (OR: 28.4; 95% CI: 19.85–40.78). Among underlying diseases, chronic renal disease had highest odds of death (OR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.29–1.68).ConclusionsCOVID-19 case numbers began declining 6 days after the national lockdown. The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain had a severe impact on elderly people. Patients with cardiovascular or renal conditions were at higher risk for severe outcomes. A high proportion of cases were HCWs. Enhanced surveillance and control measures in these subgroups are crucial during future COVID-19 waves.

COVID-19 in New Zealand and the impact of the national response: a descriptive epidemiological study

BackgroundIn early 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, New Zealand implemented graduated, risk-informed national COVID-19 suppression measures aimed at disease elimination. We investigated their impacts on the epidemiology of the first wave of COVID-19 in the country and response performance measures.MethodsWe did a descriptive epidemiological study of all laboratory-confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 and all patients tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in New Zealand from Feb 2 to May 13, 2020, after which time community transmission ceased. We extracted data from the national notifiable diseases database and the national SARS-CoV-2 test results repository. Demographic features and disease outcomes, transmission patterns (source of infection, outbreaks, household transmission), time-to-event intervals, and testing coverage were described over five phases of the response, capturing different levels of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Risk factors for severe outcomes (hospitalisation or death) were examined with multivariable logistic regression and time-to-event intervals were analysed by fitting parametric distributions using maximum likelihood estimation.Findings1503 cases were detected over the study period, including 95 (6·3%) hospital admissions and 22 (1·5%) COVID-19 deaths. The estimated case infection rate per million people per day peaked at 8·5 (95% CI 7·6–9·4) during the 10-day period of rapid response escalation, declining to 3·2 (2·8–3·7) in the start of lockdown and progressively thereafter. 1034 (69%) cases were imported or import related, tending to be younger adults, of European ethnicity, and of higher socioeconomic status. 702 (47%) cases were linked to 34 outbreaks. Severe outcomes were associated with locally acquired infection (crude odds ratio [OR] 2·32 [95% CI 1·40–3·82] compared with imported), older age (adjusted OR ranging from 2·72 [1·40–5·30] for 50–64 year olds to 8·25 [2·59–26·31] for people aged ≥80 years compared with 20–34 year olds), aged residential care residency (adjusted OR 3·86 [1·59–9·35]), and Pacific peoples (adjusted OR 2·76 [1·14–6·68]) and Asian (2·15 [1·10–4·20]) ethnicities relative to European or other. Times from illness onset to notification and isolation progressively decreased and testing increased over the study period, with few disparities and increasing coverage of females, Māori, Pacific peoples, and lower socioeconomic groups.InterpretationNew Zealand's response resulted in low relative burden of disease, low levels of population disease disparities, and the initial achievement of COVID-19 elimination.FundingMinistry of Business Innovation and Employment Strategic Scientific Investment Fund, and Ministry of Health, New Zealand.

Severe neurological outcomes after very early bilateral nephrectomies in patients with autosomal recessive polycystic kidney disease (ARPKD)

To test the association between bilateral nephrectomies in patients with autosomal recessive polycystic kidney disease (ARPKD) and long-term clinical outcome and to identify risk factors for severe outcomes, a dataset comprising 504 patients from the international registry study ARegPKD was analyzed for characteristics and complications of patients with very early (≤ 3 months; VEBNE) and early (4–15 months; EBNE) bilateral nephrectomies. Patients with very early dialysis (VED, onset ≤ 3 months) without bilateral nephrectomies and patients with total kidney volumes (TKV) comparable to VEBNE infants served as additional control groups. We identified 19 children with VEBNE, 9 with EBNE, 12 with VED and 11 in the TKV control group. VEBNE patients suffered more frequently from severe neurological complications in comparison to all control patients. Very early bilateral nephrectomies and documentation of severe hypotensive episodes were independent risk factors for severe neurological complications. Bilateral nephrectomies within the first 3 months of life are associated with a risk of severe neurological complications later in life. Our data support a very cautious indication of very early bilateral nephrectomies in ARPKD, especially in patients with residual kidney function, and emphasize the importance of avoiding severe hypotensive episodes in this at-risk cohort.

Dyslipidemia is associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection

Background and aimsThe number of positive and death cases from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is still increasing. The identification of risk factors for severe outcomes is important. Dyslipidemia has been shown as a long-known risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study is to analyze the potential association between dyslipidemia and the severity of COVID-19 infection. MethodsWe systematically searched the PubMed database using specific keywords related to our aims until July 9th, 2020. All articles published on COVID-19 and dyslipidemia were retrieved. Statistical analysis was done using Review Manager 5.4 software. ResultsA total of 7 studies with a total of 6922 patients were included in our analysis. Our meta-analysis showed that dyslipidemia is associated with severe COVID-19 infections [RR 1.39 (95% CI 1.03–1.87), p = 0.03, I2 = 57%, random-effect modelling]. ConclusionDyslipidemia increases the risk of the development of severe outcomes from COVID-19 infections. Patients with dyslipidemia should be monitored closely to minimize the risk of COVID-19.

Risk Factors for Intensive Care Unit Admission and In-hospital Mortality Among Hospitalized Adults Identified through the US Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET).

BackgroundCurrently, the United States has the largest number of reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths globally. Using a geographically diverse surveillance network, we describe risk factors for severe outcomes among adults hospitalized with COVID-19.MethodsWe analyzed data from 2,491 adults hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 during March 1–May 2, 2020 identified through the Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network comprising 154 acute care hospitals in 74 counties in 13 states. We used multivariable analyses to assess associations between age, sex, race and ethnicity, and underlying conditions with intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in-hospital mortality.ResultsNinety-two percent of patients had ≥1 underlying condition; 32% required ICU admission; 19% invasive mechanical ventilation; and 17% died. Independent factors associated with ICU admission included ages 50-64, 65-74, 75-84 and ≥85 years versus 18-39 years (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.53, 1.65, 1.84 and 1.43, respectively); male sex (aRR 1.34); obesity (aRR 1.31); immunosuppression (aRR 1.29); and diabetes (aRR 1.13). Independent factors associated with in-hospital mortality included ages 50-64, 65-74, 75-84 and ≥85 years versus 18-39 years (aRR 3.11, 5.77, 7.67 and 10.98, respectively); male sex (aRR 1.30); immunosuppression (aRR 1.39); renal disease (aRR 1.33); chronic lung disease (aRR 1.31); cardiovascular disease (aRR 1.28); neurologic disorders (aRR 1.25); and diabetes (aRR 1.19).ConclusionIn-hospital mortality increased markedly with increasing age. Aggressive implementation of prevention strategies, including social distancing and rigorous hand hygiene, may benefit the population as a whole, as well as those at highest risk for COVID-19-related complications.

Outcomes of patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) admitted to the intensive care unit: results from the Egyptian Surveillance Study 2010-2014.

BackgroundFew data exist about respiratory viral infections in Egyptian patients. Hereby we describe the outcomes of hospitalized Egyptian patients with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) admitted to the ICU.MethodsA prospective study in which all hospitalized patients meeting the WHO case definition for SARI and admitted to the ICU, during the period 2010–2014, were enrolled. Samples were tested using RT-PCR for influenza A, B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV), parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, bocavirus, enterovirus, and rhinovirus. Data were analyzed to study the clinical features of SARI-ICU patients and which pathogens are related to severe outcomes. Associated comorbidities were evaluated using Charlson Age-Comorbidity Index (CACI).ResultsOut of 1,075 patients with SARI, 219 (20.3%) were admitted to the ICU. The highest rates were reported for RSV (37%). SARI-ICU patients had higher rates of hospital stay, pneumonia, respiratory failure, ARDS, and mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified associated respiratory disorders (p=0.001), radiological abnormalities (p=0.023), and longer hospital stay (p=0.005) as risk factors for severe outcomes.ConclusionsThis surveillance study showed that 20% of hospitalized Egyptian patients with viral SARI needed ICU admission. SARI-ICU patients had higher rates of hospital stay, pneumonia, respiratory failure, ARDS, and mortality. Higher comorbidity index scores, radiological abnormalities, and longer hospital stay are risk factors for severe outcomes in SARI-ICU patients in our locality.

Association of Age, Gender, Deprivation, Urbanicity, Ethnicity, and Smoking with a Positive Test for COVID-19 in an English Primary Care Surveillance Network: Cross Sectional Study of the First 500 Cases

Background: There are few epidemiological studies of community cases in the current coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We report on the first 500 COVID-19 cases identified through United Kingdom primary care surveillance and describe risk factors for testing COVID-19 positive. Methods: The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC), is a nationally representative primary care sentinel network sharing pseudonymised data, including virological test data for COVID-19. We used multivariable logistic regression models with multiple imputation to identify risk factors for positive COVID-19 tests within this surveillance programme. Findings: We identified 3,802 COVID-19 results between 28/01/20 and 04/04/2020, 587 were positive. Greater odds of testing COVID-19 positive included: working-age people (40-64years) and older age, (≥75 years) versus 0-17 year olds (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.26, 95%CI:3.26-8.49 and 5.17,95%CI:2.99-8.92, respectively); male gender (aOR 1.56, 95%CI:1.28-1.90); black and mixed ethnicity compared with white (aOR 4.55, 95%CI:2.55-8.10 and 1.84 95%CO:1.1-3.14, respectively)); urban compared with rural areas (aOR 4.58, 95%CI:3.57-5.88); people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) (aOR 1.88, 95%CI:1.29-2.75) and increasing body mass index (aOR 1.02, 95%CI:1.00-1.03). People in the least deprived deprivation quintile had lower odds of a positive test (aOR 0.49 95%CI:0.36-0.65) as did current smokers (aOR 0.53, 95%CI:0.38-0.74). Interpretation: A positive COVID-19 test result in primary care was associated with similar risk factors for severe outcomes seen in hospital settings, with the exception of smoking. We provide early evidence of potential sociodemographic factors associated with a positive test, including ethnicity, deprivation, population density, and CKD. Funding Statement: Public Health England provides the core funding for RCGP RSC, no specific funding was provided for this analysis.Declaration of Interests: The authors have no competing interests. SdeL is the Director of the Oxford RCGP RSC, RB, JS, FF, EK and GH are part funded by PHE; and CO and AC by a Wellcome Biomedical resources grant (212763/Z/18/Z). JD is funded by Wellcome Trust (216421/Z/19/Z).Ethics Approval Statement: This study was approved by the RCGP RSC study approval committee and was classified as a study of “usual practice”. Therefore, no further ethical approval was required.

Tobacco smoking and influenza (review)

The review analyzed data on the risks of influenza infection and severe course in tobacco smokers compared with non-smokers. The incidence of influenza in the Russian Federation in 2018 amounted to 26.33 per 100 000 people, and was 24% lower than the incidence in 2017 (34.86 per 100 000) due to the fact that in recent years the coverage of the population with preventive vaccinations has been significantly increased against the flu. Meta-analyzes shows that current smokers are more likely to get the flu than non-smokers. It is noted that smoking may increase the risk of hospitalization in smokers (OR 1.32–2.18 in various meta-analyzes) and former smokers after infection with the influenza virus. Tobacco has been found to increase the risk of death from influenza among older people. At the same time, there is a study of risk factors for severe outcomes in patients hospitalized with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic flu, in which smoking was not a risk factor for severe outcomes. During the influenza epidemic, smokers and former smokers should be given the flu shot and be informed of the risk of hospitalization, and they are also strongly advised to stop smoking.

Severe Clinical Outcomes of Tuberculosis in Kharkiv Region, Ukraine, Are Associated with Beijing Strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Genotypic variation in Beijing lineages of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), has been associated with hyper virulence and the spread of extensively and multiple drug (X/MDR) resistant MTB strains in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and East Asia. The clinical outcomes of 215 new cases of TB among the population of the Kharkiv region of Eastern Ukraine were analyzed to uncover factors associated with severe infection. Infecting MTB strains were profiled by 5 locus exact tandem repeats (ETRs) and 15 locus mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) genotyping. Among diverse MTB genotypes discovered in Ukraine, the Beijing genotype (MIRU-VNTR 42425) was significantly associated with risk factors for severe outcomes of disease in the study population, including TB/HIV co-infection and treatment failure. Strain replacement (superinfection) was observed in 10 patients, suggesting repeated exposure to novel MTB strains in hospital or community settings. Inclusion of MTB genotyping data may identify at-risk patients and improve treatment adherence to prevent X/MDR development for effective public health response against tuberculosis in Ukraine.

Mortality Predictive Scores for Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Children.

The use of severity score for the staging of pneumonias has emerged as a necessity for the physician caring for this disease. Although there are several established prognostic scoring systems for community-acquired pneumonia in adults, the availability for children are scarce. Recently, scoring system for risk stratification of children with pneumonia were developed in low- and middle-income countries. They use clinical variables that represent known risk factors for severe outcomes of respiratory illness in children, such as hypoxemia, chest indrawing, refusal to feed, malnutrition, age, and stage of HIV disease among others factors. Although they showed good discriminating power and are very useful in low-resource settings, the characteristics of the patients, the local epidemiology of concurrent diseases, the social conditions, and the facilities of the hospitals make them not applicable to developed countries. A new prognostic scale for estimating mortality based on the modified PIRO scale used in adults with pneumonia can be useful for developed countries. Although several scoring systems for the estimation of mortality in childhood CAP were developed in the last years, most of them come from developing countries and the results are not applicable to patients with pneumonia in developed countries. Prospective studies applying scores adapted to the reality of the developed countries are needed.

Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination on Hospitalizations and Risk Factors for Severe Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients With COPD

The effectiveness of influenza vaccination in reducing influenza-related hospitalizations among patients with COPD is not well described, and influenza vaccination uptake remains suboptimal. Data were analyzed from a national, prospective, multicenter cohort study including patients with COPD, hospitalized with any acute respiratory illness or exacerbation between 2011 and 2015. All patients underwent nasopharyngeal swab screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for influenza. The primary outcome was an influenza-related hospitalization. We identified influenza-positive cases and negative control subjects and used multivariable logistic regression with a standard test-negative design to estimate the vaccine effectiveness for preventing influenza-related hospitalizations. Among 4,755 hospitalized patients with COPD, 4,198 (88.3%) patients with known vaccination status were analyzed. The adjusted analysis showed a 38%reduction in influenza-related hospitalizations in vaccinated vsunvaccinated individuals. Influenza-positive patients (n= 1,833 [38.5%]) experienced higher crude mortality (9.7%vs7.9%; P= .047) and critical illness (17.2%vs12.1%; P< .001) compared with influenza-negative patients. Risk factors for mortality in influenza-positive patients included age > 75 years (OR, 3.7 [95%CI, 0.4-30.3]), cardiac comorbidity (OR, 2.0 [95%CI, 1.3-3.2]), residence in long-term care (OR, 2.6 [95%CI, 1.5-4.5]), and home oxygen use (OR, 2.9 [95%CI, 1.6-5.1]). Influenza vaccination significantly reduced influenza-related hospitalization among patients with COPD. Initiatives to increase vaccination uptake and early use of antiviral agents among patients with COPD could reduce influenza-related hospitalization and critical illness and improve health-care costs in this vulnerable population. ClinicalTrials.govNo.:NCT01517191; URL www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Clinical and electroencephalographic risk factors for severe outcome in asphyxiated neonates undergoing therapeutic hypothermia

In the first days after birth, a major focus of research is to identify infants with hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy at highest risk of death or severe neurological impairment. This is especially crucial in view of the discussion of redirection of care. We aimed to seek associations between some neonatal routinely recorded parameters and the development of severe outcomes. The study group included 83 neonates recruited for TH because of perinatal asphyxia, who underwent continuous EEG/aEEG monitoring. Severe outcome was defined as death or major neurological sequelae at one-year of age. 17% had seizures, mean age at seizure onset was 22.29 h (range 5–35), mean total period with seizures 21.71 h (range 1–73), seizure burden (%of time seizuring/hour) mean 5.39% (range 0.92%-12.17%), seizure frequency mean 1.8 seizure/hours (range 1–4.25). Severe outcome was significantly associated with pH and base excess measured in the first hour of life, mode of delivery, Apgar score, Sarnat & Sarnat score, EEG-confirmed neonatal epileptic seizures, antiepileptic therapy. Seizures with electro-clinical dissociation increased 6-fold the chance of having a severe outcome (OR CI 95%: 1.02–38.87). We suggest a multi-parametric protocol which can be useful to identify neonates at high neurological risk, available before rewarming from TH.

746. Characteristics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection Among Hospitalized Adults, United States, 2014–2017

BackgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines are in clinical development for older adults. We described RSV infections among adults requiring hospitalization and risk factors for severe outcomes using a population-based platform, the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET).MethodsSurveillance occurred October 1–April 30 (2014–2017) at sites located in seven states (California, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, and Tennessee) covering an annual catchment population of up to 13 million adults ≥18 years. Laboratory-confirmed RSV cases were identified using hospital and state public health laboratories, hospital infection preventionists, and/or reportable condition databases. Medical charts were reviewed for demographic and clinical data. International Classification of Diseases (ICD) discharge codes were abstracted. Odds ratios (Oregon) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were determined to assess risk factors for ICU hospitalization and deaths.ResultsA total of 2,326 hospitalized RSV cases were identified. Over half were ≥65 years (62%, n = 1,438/2,326), female (59%, n = 1,362/2,326), white (70%, n = 1,301/1,855), and had ≥3 underlying medical conditions (52%, n = 1,204/2,326). 20% (n = 398/2,000) were hospitalized in the ICU (median length of stay, 3 days; interquartile range, 1–6 days), and 5% (n = 96/2,001) died in the hospital. Congestive heart failure (CHF; OR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1–1.8) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; OR: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1–1.7) were associated with ICU admission, while age ≥80 years (OR: 4.1, 95% CI: 1.8–12.1) and CHF (OR: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.6–3.6) were associated with in-hospital deaths. RSV-specific ICD codes were listed in the first 9 positions in only 44% (879/1,987) of cases.ConclusionTo our knowledge, this is the largest US case series of RSV-infected hospitalized adults. Most cases were ≥65 years and had multiple underlying medical conditions. Older age, CHF, and COPD were associated with the most severe outcomes. Few cases had RSV-specific ICD codes, suggesting that administrative data underestimate adult RSV-related hospitalizations. Continued surveillance is needed to understand the epidemiology of RSV among adults as vaccine products move toward licensure.Disclosures E. J. Anderson, NovaVax: Grant Investigator, Research grant. Pfizer: Grant Investigator, Research grant. AbbVie: Consultant, Consulting fee. MedImmune: Investigator, Research support. PaxVax: Investigator, Research support. Micron: Investigator, Research support. H. K. Talbot, sanofi pasteur: Investigator, Research grant. Gilead: Investigator, Research grant. MedImmune: Investigator, Research grant. Vaxinnate: Safety Board, none. Seqirus: Safety Board, none.

690. Bacterial Coinfections Among Adults Hospitalized with Community-Associated Influenza, 2016–2017

BackgroundInfluenza and bacterial coinfection are associated with increased symptom severity and worse health outcomes. We used data from the population based Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-Net) California site to describe adult influenza hospitalizations with and without bacterial coinfections and evaluate the risk of severe disease.MethodsWe included data from adults hospitalized with laboratory confirmed influenza during the 2016/2017 influenza season who resided in San Francisco, Alameda or Contra Costa counties and had a bacterial culture performed ≤ 3 days after admission. We excluded records for healthcare facility-associated influenza. Univariate analyses were used to describe demographics, clinical characteristics and outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the effect of bacterial coinfection as a risk factor for severe outcome, defined as admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) or death during hospitalization.ResultsAmong 2,029 adult influenza hospitalizations, 102 had ≥1 positive bacterial cultures. There were 119 bacterial isolates from blood (58), respiratory sites (60), and joint fluid (1). The most frequent blood isolates were Streptococcus pneumoniae (11), and Staphylococcus aureus (10). The most frequent respiratory isolates were S. aureus (30) and S. pneumoniae (7). Coinfected persons were younger (median age 71 vs. 78), and more likely to have past or current alcohol abuse or immunosuppression. Coinfected patients were more likely to be admitted to an ICU (45% vs. 15%) or die (16.0% vs. 3.6%). The median length of hospital stay was twice as long for coinfected patients (6 days vs. 3). In multivariate analyses, bacterial coinfection (aOR, 4.49; 95% CI, 2.99–6.72), chronic lung disease (aOR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.18–1.95) and cardiovascular disease (aOR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.15–1.90) were associated with a severe outcome.ConclusionBacterial coinfection was associated with a four-fold higher risk of ICU admission and death during hospitalization. This study highlights the need for clinicians to maintain a high index of suspicion for the presence of bacterial coinfection among patients with influenza requiring hospitalization.Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.

Acute salicylate poisoning: risk factors for severe outcome: Shively RM, Hoffman RS, Manini AF. Clinical Toxicology. 2017;55:175-80

Acute salicylate poisoning: risk factors for severe outcome: Shively RM, Hoffman RS, Manini AF. Clinical Toxicology. 2017;55:175-80

Uncomplicated Acute Diverticulitis: Identifying Risk Factors for Severe Outcomes.

The management of uncomplicated (Modified Hinchey Classification Ia) acute diverticulitis (AD) has become increasingly conservative, with a focus on symptomatic relief and supportive management. Clear criteria for patient selection are required to implement this safely. This retrospective study aimed to identify risk factors for severe clinical course in patients with uncomplicated AD. Patients admitted to General Surgery at two New Zealand tertiary centres over a period of 18months were included. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out in order to identify factors associated with a more severe clinical course. This was defined by three endpoints: need for procedural intervention, admission >7days and 30-day readmission; these were analysed separately and as a combined outcome. Uncomplicated AD was identified in 319 patients. Fifteen patients (5%) required procedural intervention; this was associated with SIRS (OR 3.92). Twenty-two (6.9%) patients were admitted for >7days; this was associated with patient-reported pain score >8/10 (OR 5.67). Thirty-one patients (9.8%) required readmission within 30days; this was associated with pain score >8/10 (OR 6.08) and first episode of AD (OR 2.47). Overall, 49 patients had a severe clinical course, and associated factors were regular steroid/immunomodulator use (OR 4.34), pain score >8/10 (OR 5.9) and higher temperature (OR 1.51) and CRP ≥200 (OR 4.1). SIRS, high pain score and CRP, first episode and regular steroid/immunomodulator use were identified as predictors of worse outcome in uncomplicated AD. These findings have the potential to inform prospective treatment decisions in this patient group.

Prognosis and related risk factors for 465 subjects infected with hepatitis C virus in Danyang, Jiangsu province

Objective: To investigate the clinical features and viral load of persons infected with HCV and the risk factors for severe outcomes. Methods: Medical testing and questionnaire survey were conducted on 465 cases who were infected with HCV, 20-30 years back. HCV RNA, alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), albumin, globulin and bilirubin were tested for these subjects. Factors as demography, tobacco and alcohol consumption, SNP of rs7453920 and rs2856718 on HLA-DQ gene of subjects with HCV RNA, were analyzed by multiple logistic regression method to explore the risk factors for severe outcomes among the patients. Result: Totally, 465 subjects had symptoms as hypodynamic (15.70%, 73/465), digestive system (17.63%, 82/465), and arthrodynia (10.32%, 48/465). HCV RNA was positive in 68.60% (319/465) of the subjects with median viral load as 76.01×10(4) copies/ml (min-max: 592 copies/ml -1.08×10(10) copies/ml). Totally, 11.83% (55/465) of the cases appeared having liver inflammation by routine ultrasound exams. ALT and AST was seen higher than 80 (IU/L) in 12.70% (59/465) and 11.18% (52/465) of the subjects, separately. Factors as being male (OR =2.298, 95%CI: 1.247-4.238), GA genotype compared with AA type in rs2856718 (OR=1.716, 95%CI: 1.070-2.752), alcohol intake ≥7 times per-week (OR=2.966, 95% CI: 0.979-8.988) etc., were independently related to HCV RNA sustained positivity. Factors as: being male (OR=1.694, 95%CI: 0.975-2.942), in 50-59 years age group (OR=2.414, 95%CI: 1.156-5.042), having other liver diseases (OR=2.592, 95% CI: 1.105-6.079) and carrying positive HCV RNA (OR=3.479, 95% CI: 1.648-7.343) etc. were independent risk factors for abnormal liver function. Conclusion: High rates of carrying sustained positive HCV RNA and abnormal liver function appeared in subjects who got the HCV infection 20-30 years ago. Factors as being male, in old age, being frequent alcohol taker, GA genotype in rs2856718 and with other liver diseases etc. were related to higher risk for developing severe outcomes.

Acute salicylate poisoning: risk factors for severe outcome

Context: Salicylate poisoning remains a significant public health threat with more than 20,000 exposures reported annually in the United States.Objective: We aimed to establish early predictors of severe in-hospital outcomes in Emergency Department patients presenting with acute salicylate poisoning.Methods: This was a secondary data analysis of adult salicylate overdoses from a prospective cohort study of acute drug overdoses at two urban university teaching hospitals from 2009 to 2013. Patients were included based on confirmed salicylate ingestion and enrolled consecutively. Demographics, clinical parameters, treatment and disposition were collected from the medical record. Severe outcome was defined as a composite occurrence of acidemia (pH <7.3 or bicarbonate <16 mEq/L), hemodialysis, and/or death.Results: Out of 1997 overdoses screened, 48 patients met inclusion/exclusion criteria. Patient characteristics were 43.8% male, median age 32 (range 18–87), mean initial salicylate concentration 28.1 mg/dL (SD 26.6), and 20.8% classified as severe outcome. Univariate analysis indicated that age, respiratory rate, lactate, coma, and the presence of co-ingestions were significantly associated with severe outcome, while initial salicylate concentration alone had no association. However, when adjusted for salicylate concentration, only age (OR 1.13; 95% CI 1.02–1.26) and respiratory rate (OR 1.29; 95% CI 1.02–1.63) were independent predictors. Additionally, lactate showed excellent test characteristics to predict severe outcome, with an optimal cutpoint of 2.25 mmol/L (78% sensitivity, 67% specificity).Conclusions: In adult Emergency Department patients with acute salicylate poisoning, independent predictors of severe outcome were older age and increased respiratory rate, as well as initial serum lactate, while initial salicylate concentration alone was not predictive.