Risk Factors For Brain Metastasis Research Articles

The application of different machine learning models based on PET/CT images and EGFR in predicting brain metastasis of adenocarcinoma of the lung

ObjectiveTo explore the value of six machine learning models based on PET/CT radiomics combined with EGFR in predicting brain metastases of lung adenocarcinoma.MethodsRetrospectively collected 204 patients with lung adenocarcinoma who underwent PET/CT examination and EGFR gene detection before treatment from Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University in 2020. Using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis to find the independent risk factors for brain metastasis. Based on PET/CT imaging combined with EGFR and PET metabolic indexes, established six machine learning models to predict brain metastases of lung adenocarcinoma. Finally, using ten-fold cross-validation to evaluate the predictive effectiveness.ResultsIn univariate analysis, patients with N2-3, EGFR mutation-positive, LYM%≤20, and elevated tumor markers(P<0.05) were more likely to develop brain metastases. In multivariate Logistic regression analysis, PET metabolic indices revealed that SUVmax, SUVpeak, Volume, and TLG were risk factors for lung adenocarcinoma brain metastasis(P<0.05). The SVM model was the most efficient predictor of brain metastasis with an AUC of 0.82 (PET/CT group),0.70 (CT group),0.76 (PET group).ConclusionsRadiomics combined with EGFR machine learning model as a new method have higher accuracy than EGFR mutation alone. SVM model is the most effective method for predicting brain metastases of lung adenocarcinoma, and the prediction efficiency of PET/CT group is better than PET group and CT group.

Cumulative incidence and risk factors of brain metastases in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer without baseline brain metastasis: Pooled analysis of individualized patient data from IMpower130, IMpower131, and IMpower150.

The objective of this study was to explore the abilities of atezolizumab plus chemotherapy in preventing brain metastases (BMs) among metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) without initial BMs, as well as the risk factors of BMs. Individual patient data from three trials involving first-line atezolizumab for metastatic NSCLC (IMpower130, IMpower131, and IMpower150) were pooled. Among patients without baseline BMs and without epidermal growth factor receptor(EGFR) and/or anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) mutations, those receiving atezolizumab+chemotherapy±bevacizumab were classified as the atezolizumabplus chemotherapy group and those receiving placebo+chemotherapy±bevacizumab were classified as the chemotherapy group. The cumulative incidences of BM (CI-BMs) between the two groups were compared. Other factors associated with the CI-BM were analyzed by Cox regression analyses. With a median follow-up of 17.6 months (range, 0.03-33.64 months), 74 (3.1%) of the 2380 enrolled patients developed BMs, including 50 (3.1%) and 24 (3.0%) in the atezolizumab plus chemotherapy group (n=1589) and the chemotherapy group (n=791), respectively. The CI-BMs at 6, 12, and 24months were 1.7%, 2.8%, and 3.3%, respectively. After taking competing risk events into account, there was no significant difference in the CI-BMs between the two groups (p=.888). Nevertheless, the use of bevacizumab and the histology of nonsquamous NSCLC were found to be independently associated with the risk of BMs. In patients with metastatic EGFR/ALK wild-type NSCLC without baseline BMs, adding atezolizumab in the first-line treatment might not reduce the CI-BM. However, the administration of bevacizumab may reduce the risk of BMs.

Incidence, Risk Factors, and Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Brain Metastases.

Brain metastases significantly impact the clinical course of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to examine the age-related incidence, demographics, and survival of patients with HCC and brain metastases. Data of HCC patients from 2010 to 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Registry were screened for the presence of brain metastases. They were stratified by age and ethnicity. Multivariable logistic and Cox regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with brain metastases and those with overall survival (OS) and liver cancer-specific survival (CSS), respectively. A total of 141 HCC patients presenting with brain metastases were identified, accounting for 0.35% of all HCC patients and 2.37% of patients with metastatic disease. Among all HCC patients, the incidence rate was the highest among patients aged 30-49 years old (0.47%). Ethnicity was not associated with the presence of brain metastases at the time of HCC diagnosis. However, African-American patients presented with a significantly lower disease-specific survival [median time: 1 month; interquartile range (IQR): 0-3.0 months)]. Initial lung or bone metastasis was independently associated with an increased risk of the presence of brain metastases [odds ratio (OR): 12.62, 95% confidence interval (CI): 8.40-18.97] but was not associated with a worse OS or CSS among those with brain metastases. This study identified the age-related incidence and risk factors of brain metastases in HCC patients. These results may contribute to the consideration of brain screening among patients with initial metastatic HCC with lung or bone metastases, and influence the counseling of this patient population regarding their prognosis.

Risk factors for brain metastases in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer patients treated with radical radiotherapy.

Brain metastases (BM) happen frequently in lung cancer patients and lead to a poor prognosis as well as a lower quality of life. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for BM in locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) patients receiving radical radiotherapy, which will be useful for selecting appropriate patient population for further intervention and future trial design. This was a retrospective cohort study. Patients with inoperable stage IIB-IIIC NSCLC were treated consecutively with definitive thoracic radiotherapy from January 2018 to December 2021, and were retrospectively reviewed and enrolled. Patients with various clinical variables were analyzed to clarify their impact on BM with competing risk models by Fine and Gray. A total of 134 patients were enrolled in this study. The median follow-up for all patients was 37 months [95% confidence interval (CI): 30.5-43.5 months]. BM occurred in 25 patients at the time of analysis. The 1-year and 3-year cumulative BM incidence were 10.5% and 19.9%, respectively. Patients with BM had worse overall survival than those without BM [stratified hazard ratio (HR) for death: 2.83; 95% CI:1.31-6.11; P<0.001]. Based on univariate analyses, non-squamous cell carcinoma (non-SCC), biological effective dose (BED) and planning target volume (PTV) were used as input variables in multivariable analysis (P<0.01). According to multivariate analysis, non-SCC (P<0.001; HR: 6.08; 95% CI: 2.26-16.37), BED <72 Gy (P=0.017; HR: 2.81; 95% CI: 1.20-6.57), and PTV >157.73 cm3 (P=0.043; HR: 2.56; 95% CI: 1.03-6.35) were independent risk factors for BM. In subgroup analysis of adenocarcinoma with known epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation status, PTV >157.73 cm3 and positive EGFR mutation were independent predictors for BM. In this retrospective study, we found that BED <72 Gy and PTV >157.73 cm3 were significantly associated with BM development and we validated that non-SCC and positive EGFR mutation were risk factors for BM. More research is required to screen the high-risk patient population.

Frequency of metastases within the hypothalamic–pituitary area and the associated high-risk factors in patients with brain metastases

ObjectiveBrain radiotherapy often results in impairment of hypothalamic–pituitary (HT-P) function, which in turn causes secretory dysfunction of related hormones. In this paper, the frequency of metastasis in the HT-P area and its high-risk factors in patients with brain metastasis were retrospectively analyzed, and thus provide experimental evidence for protecting HT-P area during whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT).MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on the data of patients with brain metastasis diagnosed by cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at the First Hospital of Lanzhou University from 2017 to 2020. The anatomical positions of the hypothalamus and pituitary were delineated, followed by their expansion by 5 mm outwards, respectively, in the three-dimensional direction, and the hypothalamus +5 mm and pituitary +5 mm were obtained as the avoidance area, in which the frequency of brain metastasis was evaluated. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the high risk factors of brain metastasis in HT-P area.ResultsA total of 3,375 brain metastatic lesions from 411 patients were included in the analysis. The rates of brain metastasis in the hypothalamus +5 mm and pituitary +5 mm in the whole group of cases were 2.9% (12/411) and 1.5% (6/411) respectively; the frequency of lesions was 0.4% (13/3375) and 0.2% (6/3375) respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that the number of brain metastases (OR = 14.946; 95% CI = 4.071–54.880; p &amp;lt; 0.001), and the occurrence of brain metastasis in the pituitary (OR = 13.331; 95% CI = 1.511–117.620; p = 0.020) were related to brain metastasis in the hypothalamus, and that the only relevant factor for brain metastasis in the pituitary was the occurrence of that in the hypothalamus (OR = 0.069; 95% CI = 0.010–0.461; p = 0.006). There was no correlation between tumor pathological types, the maximum diameter, the total volume of brain metastatic lesions and the risk of brain metastasis in hypothalamus and pituitary.ConclusionThe frequency of brain metastasis in the HT-P area is extremely low. The risk of brain metastases in the hypothalamus is correlated with their number. The larger the number of metastatic lesions, the higher the frequency of brain metastasis. Protection of the HT-P area during WBRT may be unlikely to compromise the tumor recurrence rate for patients with a relatively small number of brain metastases.

Incidence and Risk Factors for Brain Metastases in Patients with Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Brain metastases (BM) are a very common metastatic site in lung cancer, but the exact rate of metastasis is still controversial. Risk factors for BM development are also largely lacking, hampering personalized treatment strategies. This study aimed to identify the incidence and possible risk factors for BM in lung cancer. A systematic review, based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guide-lines, was conducted using PubMed, Medline databases and Cochrane Library databases from inception until February 2023. Two investigators independently searched and selected literature, included in randomized controlled trials and cohort studies. Heterogeneity was assessed using the χ2 test and the I2 statistic. Significant heterogeneity was indicated by P <0.05 in Cochrane Q tests and a ratio greater than 40% in I2 statistics. The review is registered on PROSPERO, number: CRD42022370173. Forty-nine studies were included in the meta-analysis. The results showed that the incidence rate of BM in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) was 0.24 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.23-0.25; I2 = 97.1%). The incidence rate in early NSCLC was 0.11 (95% CI: 0.10-0.13), locally advanced NSCLC was 0.32 (95% CI: 0.29-0.34), and advanced NSCLC was 0.37 (95% CI: 0.35-0.38). Lung adenocarcinoma was more prone to BM in NSCLC (risk ratio [RR] = 3.59, 95% CI: 1.97-6.54; P<0.001). The BM rate of NSCLC with EGFR mutation was also higher (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.14-1.94; P = 0.004). Sex and smoking had no significant effect on the incidence of BM in NSCLC. Prophylactic Cranial Irradiation (PCI) could significantly reduce BM in NSCLC (HR = 0.36, 95% CI: 0.23-0.56; P<0.001), but chemotherapy had no obvious effect on decreasing the rate of BM (HR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.54-1.54; P = 0.73). The incidence rate of BM in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) was 0.28 (95% CI: 0.27-0.30; I2 = 95.9%), and 0.23 (95% CI: 0.20-0.25) in the limited-stage SCLC. Older age (≥65) (HR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.54-0.92; P = 0.01) were associated with less BM in SCLC. A higher T stage (≥T3) (HR = 1.72, 95% CI: 1.16-2.56; P = 0.007) was a significant risk factor for BM, while sex, smoking dose were not. PCI could also significantly decreased BM in SCLC (HR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.38-0.58; P<0.001). This study is the first meta-analysis of BM incidence rate in lung cancer, and further explores the factors affecting BM, providing some suggestions for clinical decision-making of BM prevention in patients with lung cancer.

Retracted: Risk Factors for Brain Metastasis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

[This retracts the article DOI: 10.1155/2022/7848143.].

18F-FDG PET/CT radiomics predicts brain metastasis in I-IIIA resected Non-Small cell lung cancer

ObjectiveTo establish 18F-FDG PET/CT radiomics model for predicting brain metastasis in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. MethodsThis research comprised 203 NSCLC patients who had received surgical therapy at two institutions. To identify independent predictive factors of brain metastasis, metabolic indicators, CT features, and clinical features were investigated. A prediction model was established by incorporating radiomics signature and clinicopathological risk variables. The suggested model’s performance was assessed from the perspective of discrimination, calibration, and clinical application. ResultsThe C-indices of the PET/CT radiomics model in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts were 0.911, 0.825 and 0.800, respectively. According to the multivariate analysis, neuron-specific enolase (NSE) and air bronchogram were independent risk factors for brain metastasis (BM). Furthermore, the combined model integrating radiomics and clinicopathological characteristics related to brain metastasis performed better in terms of prediction, with C-indices of 0.927, 0.861, and 0.860 in the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts, respectively. The decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that the PET/CT nomogram was clinically beneficial. ConclusionsA predictive algorithm based on PET/CT imaging information and clinicopathological features may accurately predict the probability of brain metastasis in NSCLC patients following surgery. This presented doctors with a unique technique for screening NSCLC patients at high risk of brain metastasis.

Risk factors and a new nomogram for predicting brain metastasis from lung cancer: a retrospective study.

This study aims to establish and validate a new nomogram for predicting brain metastasis from lung cancer by integrating data. 266 patients diagnosed as lung cancer between 2016 and 2018 were collected from Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences. The first 70% of patients were designated as the primary cohort and the remaining patients were identified as the internal validation cohort. Univariate and multivariable logistics regression were applied to analyze the risk factors. Independent risk factors were used to construct nomogram. C-index was used to evaluate the prediction effect of nomogram.100 patients diagnosed as lung cancer between 2018 and 2019 were collected for external validation cohorts. The evaluation of nomogram was carried out through the distinction and calibration in the internal validation cohort and external validation cohort. 166 patients were diagnosed with brain metastasis among the 266 patients. The gender, pathological type (PAT), leukocyte count (LCC) and Fibrinogen stage (FibS) were independent risk factors of brain metastasis. A novel nomogram has been developed in this study showed an effective discriminative ability to predict the probability of lung cancer patients with brain metastasis, the C-index was 0.811. Our research provides a novel model that can be used for predicting brain metastasis of lung cancer patients, thus providing more credible evidence for clinical decision-making.

Risk of brain metastases in metastatic non-small cell lung cancer without baseline brain metastasis: Pooled analysis of individualized patient data from three randomized clinical trials involving first-line atezolizumab treatment.

2032 Background: Data on the efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors on delaying or preventing the occurrence of brain metastases (BMs) in metastatic NSCLC without initial BMs is limited. We explored the benefit of first-line atezolizumab versus chemotherapy in the occurrence of BMs in patients without baseline BMs. Methods: Individual patient data from IMpower1301, IMpower131, and IMpower150 were pooled. All patients in the intention to treat population were analyzed. Primary endpoints included BM free survival (BMFS) and the cumulative incidence of BM. Patients without baseline BMs were categorized into two groups: patients who received treatment including atezolizumab (atezolizumab group) and patients who received comparator chemotherapies (chemotherapy group). Results: In 2543 patients without baseline BMs, 87 (3.4%) developed BM, including 58 (3.4%) and 29 (3.4%) in the atezolizumab group and the chemotherapy group, respectively. The median BMFS was 8.31 months (95% CI 7.79-8.67). The cumulative incidence of BM at 6 months, 12 months, and 24 months was 1.9%, 3.1%, and 3.8%, respectively. Compared to the chemotherapy group, BMFS was significantly improved in the atezolizumab group (8.6 months versus 7.3 months, p &lt; 0.001). After taking the competing risk events into account, no significant difference of the cumulative incidence of BM was observed between the two groups ( p = 0.671), suggesting that the significantly better BMFS in the atezolizumab group analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method should be due to the lower incidence of extracranial progression or death. Baseline bone metastasis and non-squamous NSCLC were identified as two risk factors for BM. Conclusions: In patients with NSCLC without baseline BMs, first-line atezolizumab improved BMFS but not the cumulative incidence of BM compared to chemotherapy, indicating that atezolizumab could not reduce the intrinsic risk of intracranial tumor spreading. [Table: see text]

Abstract P3-03-28: Clinicopathological Risk Factors of Brain Metastasis in Breast Cancer Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Abstract BACKGROUND: Breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM) has an incidence rate of 5.1% among Breast Cancer (BC) patients. In BCBM, cancerous cells come from a primary tumor that implant and grow in the brain leading to potentially lethal neurologic symptoms and signs. With more clinical options and therapeutics strategies becoming available, a multi-disciplinary approach for treatment is needed in order to best meet BCBM patients’ needs, however, systematic guidelines for the screening of high-risk asymptomatic patients are still lacking and the BCBM diagnoses are performed only after symptoms manifestation. Therefore, understanding the clinical and pathologic drivers of BCBM aids in improving medical interventions by guiding future research directions. This study aims to determine the clinicopathological risk factors of brain metastasis (BM) among BC patients. METHODS: Retrospective cohort studies on the clinicopathological characteristics of BM versus non-BM (NBM) patients were retrieved through reputable search databases. Review Manager version 5.4.1 was used for statistical analyses. In the presence of heterogeneities, a pragmatic approach was undertaken to employ both random-effects (RE) and fixed-effect (FE) meta-analyses. The statistical significance of the pooled effect estimates was examined by the Z-test. Interstudy variations and heterogeneities were estimated using Cochran’s Q-statistic with P &amp;lt; 0.05 indicating a statistically significant heterogeneity. The risk of bias and the quality of studies were assessed at a study level using ROBINS-I tool. RESULTS: A total of four (4) retrospective cohort studies were included in the analyses. Random-effects meta-analyses with i2 &amp;lt; 50% (P &amp;gt; 0.05) had shown significant association (P &amp;lt; 0.05) on the increased incidences of BCBM development for HER2+ expression [OR: 2.43, 95% CI: 1.88 – 3.12, P &amp;lt; 0.00001] and for pre-menopausal status [OR: 1.77, 95% CI: 1.13 – 2.76, P = 0.01]. Fixed-effect meta-analyses had shown significant association (P &amp;lt; 0.05) on the decreased incidence of BCBM development for TNBC disease [OR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.47 – 0.92; P = 0.02]. The risk of bias was low to moderate in the majority of studies. CONCLUSION: HER2 positivity and pre-menopausal status are risk factors for increased BCBM development while the absence of regional lymph node metastases and ILC findings are less likely to progress to BCBM. Higher T and N categories, higher histological grade, ER negativity, and PR negativity may be associated with higher risks of BCBM while lower T categories, HER2 negativity, and TNBC may likely be associated to less BCBM development. More powerful relevant and upcoming randomized clinical trials with larger sample sizes among BCBM patients versus non-BM patients must be made exploring certainty on the clinicopathological factors contributing to BM among BC patients. Keyword/s: risk factors, breast cancer, brain metastasis Citation Format: Korina Blanca C. Garcia, April Ann A. Lubay. Clinicopathological Risk Factors of Brain Metastasis in Breast Cancer Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr P3-03-28.

Clinical features and molecular genetics associated with brain metastasis in suspected early-stage non-small cell lung cancer.

Regarding whether brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) should be routine in patients with suspected early-stage lung cancer, guideline recommendations are inconsistent. Therefore, we performed this study to evaluate the incidence of and risk factors for brain metastasis (BM) in patients with suspected early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). A review of the medical charts of consecutive NSCLC patients diagnosed between January 2006 and May 2020 was performed. We identified 1,382 NSCLC patients with clinical staging of T1/2aN0M0 (excluding BM), and investigated the incidence, clinical predictors, and prognosis of BM in the cohort. We also performed RNA-sequencing differential expression analysis using transcriptome of 8 patients, using DESeq2 package (version 1.32.0) with R (version 4.1.0). Among 1,382 patients, nine hundred forty-nine patients (68.7%) underwent brain MRI during staging, and 34 patients (3.6%) were shown to have BM. Firth's bias-reduced logistic regression showed that tumor size (OR 1.056; 95% CI 1.009-1.106, p=0.018) was the only predictor of BM, and pathologic type was not a predictor of BM in our cohort (p>0.05). The median overall survival for patients with brain metastasis was 5.5 years, which is better than previously reported in the literature. RNA-sequencing differential expression analysis revealed the top 10 significantly upregulated genes and top 10 significantly downregulated genes. Among the genes involved in BM, Unc-79 homolog, non-selective sodium leak channel (NALCN) channel complex subunit (UNC79) was the most highly expressed gene in the lung adenocarcinoma tissues from the BM group, and an in vitro assay using A549 cells revealed that the NALCN inhibitor suppressed lung cancer cell proliferation and migration. Given the incidence and favorable outcome of BM in patients with suspected early-stage NSCLC, selective screening with brain MRI may be considered, especially in patients with high-risk features.

Burden and Risk Factors of Brain Metastases in Melanoma: A Systematic Literature Review.

Melanoma can frequently metastasize to the brain with severe consequences. However, variation of melanoma brain metastases (MBM) development among populations is not well studied, and underlying mechanisms and risk factors for MBM development are not consistently documented. We conducted a systematic literature review (SLR) including a total of 39 articles to evaluate the proportion of melanoma patients who are diagnosed with, or develop, brain metastases, and summarize the risk factors of MBM. The average proportion of MBM was calculated and weighted by the sample size of each study. Meta-analyses were conducted for the selected risk factors using a random-effects model. The proportion of MBM at diagnosis was 33% (975 with MBM out of 2948 patients) among patients with cutaneous melanoma (excluding acral) and 23% (651/2875) among patients with cutaneous mixed with other types of melanoma. The proportion at diagnosis was lower among populations with mucosal (9/96, 9%) or uveal (4/184, 2%) melanoma and among populations outside the United States and Europe. Meta-analysis demonstrated that male vs. female gender and left-sided tumors vs. right-sided were significantly associated with increased risk of melanoma brain metastases. These data may help clinicians to assess an individual patient's risk of developing melanoma brain metastases.

280 (PB-104) Poster - Clinicopathologic Risk Factors of Brain Metastasis in Breast Cancer Patients: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Background: Breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM) has an incidence rate of 5.1% among Breast Cancer (BC) patients. In BCBM, cancerous cells come from a primary tumor that implant and grow in the brain leading to potentially lethal neurologic symptoms and signs. With more clinical options and therapeutics strategies becoming available, a multi-disciplinary approach for treatment is needed in order to best meet BCBM patients’ needs, however, systematic guidelines for the screening of high-risk asymptomatic patients are still lacking and the BCBM diagnoses are performed only after symptoms manifestation.

Cumulative incidence and risk factors of brain metastasis for acral and mucosal melanoma patients with stages I–III

PurposeFew studies focused on the incidence of brain metastasis in patients with acral and mucosal melanoma, and a better understanding of the incidences and predictors of brain metastasis is needed in these patients. MethodA prospectively accrued cohort of 799 patients with acral and mucosal melanoma in stages I–III from July 2011 to December 2015 at Peking University Cancer Hospital were included in this study. Competing risk models (Fine and Gray) were used to estimate the cumulative incidence of brain metastasis and compare the differences in cumulative incidence curves between different primary lesions, stages, and molecular types. ResultsAt a median follow-up time of 68.0 months, 60 of the 779 patients (7.7%) developed brain metastasis, and 261 (33.5%) patients developed extracranial metastasis. Considering the risk of competition, the cumulative incidence of brain metastasis at one year, two years, and five years after diagnosis were 5.1%, 10.2%, and 19.5%, respectively. Stage III, BRAF mutations, and NRAS mutations were associated with a high risk of brain metastasis in univariable analysis. Multivariate analysis showed BRAF mutations, and NRAS mutations had statistically correlated with an increased cumulative incidence of brain metastasis at diagnosis and all-time point of one year and two years after diagnosis. ConclusionThis study is the first to report the cumulative incidence and risk factors of brain metastasis for patients with acral and mucosal melanoma in stages I–III. Patients with BRAF and NRAS mutations had a higher incidence at diagnosis and all-time point, providing the basis for surveillance guidelines and further mechanic exploration.

EP14.01-014 Risk Factors for Brain Metastasis in Patients with Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

The use of prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) for small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is controversial. Risk factors for brain metastasis (BM) are largely unknown, hampering personalized treatment strategies. This study aimed to identify possible risk factors for BM in SCLC.

Usefulness of pro-gastrin-releasing peptide as a predictor of the incidence of brain metastasis and effect of prophylactic cranial irradiation in patients with limited-stage small-cell lung cancer

Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) is recommended for patients with limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) who respond well to initial treatment. However, PCI is often omitted because of its potential neurotoxicity in the era of modern diagnostic imaging devices. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the risk factors for brain metastasis (BM) in patients eligible for PCI and who may benefit more from it. Patients with LS-SCLC who responded well to definitive thoracic chemoradiotherapy were included in the present study. Competing risk regression was used to identify factors associated with BM, and the Kaplan–Meier method was used to assess overall survival (OS). Between 2004 and 2017, 62 patients were eligible for PCI and were analyzed. Of these, 38 (61.3%) underwent PCI. Overall, 17 patients (27.4%) developed BM, with a 2-year cumulative incidence of 22.8%. Multivariate analysis (MVA) revealed that pretreatment elevated pro-gastrin-releasing peptide (ProGRP) levels were associated with an increased risk for BM (HR, 7.96, P = 0.0091). PCI tended to reduce the risk of BM (HR, 0.33; P = 0.051). The use of PCI was associated with improved OS in patients with ProGRP levels > 410 pg/mL (P = 0.008), but not in those with ProGRP ≤ 410 pg/mL (P = 0.9). Pretreatment ProGRP levels may be useful in predicting the development of BM in patients with LS-SCLC who achieved a good response to initial therapy and to determine which patients should undergo PCI.

The occurrence and associated risk factors of brain metastases in well differentiated grade 1 and 2 bronchial neuroendocrine tumours: A single centre retrospective analysis of 280 patients

Typical and atypical bronchial carcinoid account for around 2% of all neuroendocrine neoplasms of pulmonary origin. Fewer than 5% of patients with these cancers are thought to develop brain metastases, and hence routine intracranial imaging is not currently included in staging investigations. In this study, retrospective case note analysis was performed on 280 patients diagnosed with either typical carcinoid (TC) or atypical carcinoid (AC) at a large, single-site cancer centre. None of the 219 patients with TC developed brain metastases during the course of their disease, whereas seven of the 61 AC (11.5%) were found to have intracranial spread, four of which were present at the point of diagnosis. A Cox proportional hazard model showed that a Ki-67 expression ≥18%, patient age ≥65 years and disease stage at diagnosis were all independently and significantly associated with the development of brain metastases in AC. This study has found new evidence that the incidence of brain metastases in AC is significantly higher than previously thought. Of all the variables reviewed, Ki-67 expression was most strongly associated with the development of intracranial disease in AC and could be readily translated into clinical practice. Predictive factors such as age, disease stage and Ki-67 expression could be used to identify patients at particularly increased risk of brain metastases, who would benefit from early intracranial imaging. This could allow for earlier detection and treatment of metastases, with the potential to improve clinical outcomes and patient quality of life.

Risk Factors of Brain Metastasis and Prognosis in HER2-Positive Breast Cancer: A Single-Institution Retrospective Analysis from China.

BackgroundBrain metastasis (BM) frequently occurs in HER2-positive breast cancer (BC) patients, but the risk factors of BM in this type of patients are still unknown. Our study aims to assess the risk factors of BM and prognostic analysis in HER2-positive BC patients.MethodsUnivariate analysis used t-test, chi-square test, and Fisher’s exact test to find out the risk factors for BM, and multivariable analysis was done with stepwise logistic regression analysis. Prognostic data analysis was estimated by the Kaplan–Meier method.ResultsA total of 228 HER2-positive BC patients were included, of whom 214 patients were postoperative metastatic patients and 14 patients were de novo stage IV patients. Through comparing the stratified variables between 51 postoperative metastatic patients with BM and 163 postoperative metastatic patients without BM, the multivariate analysis showed that age ≤40 years (OR 2.321, 95% CI: 1.089 to 4.948) and first metastatic site with lung metastasis (OR 2.168, 95% CI: 1.099 to 4.274) were independent risk factors for BM in HER2-positive BC patients. Prognostic data of all 65 HER2-positive BC patients with BM showed that the time from the diagnosis of BC to the development of breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM) was 36.3 months (95% CI: 30.0 to 42.1 months). The time from the diagnosis of first recurrence and metastasis stage to the diagnosis of BCBM was 11.35 months (95% CI: 7.1 to 18.4 months). The time from the diagnosis of BCBM to the time of follow-up was 24.1 months (95% CI: 13.9 to 37.5 months). Up until the time of follow-up data, a total of 38 patients had died, and the time from the diagnosis of BM of these 38 patients to death was 11.0 months (95% CI: 9.0 to 20.4 months).ConclusionThe prognosis of HER2-positive BC patients with BM was poor due to the lack of effective treatments for BM. Age ≤40 years and first metastatic site with lung metastasis were the independent risk factors for BM in HER2-positive BC patients. Future research about pre-emptive medical interventions may help to improve the prognosis of HER2-positive BC patients with high risk to develop BM.

Research Progress on Risk Factors of Brain Metastasis in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

非小细胞肺癌（non-small cell lung cancer, NSCLC）脑转移是常见的治疗失败模式，发生脑转移的NSCLC患者中位生存时间仅为1个月-2个月。预防性脑照射（prophylactic cranial irradiation, PCI）可延缓脑转移的发生，但对NSCLC患者的生存获益仍存在争议，因此，通过预测脑转移的风险筛选可能从PCI中获益的人群尤为重要。本文就NSCLC脑转移的高危因素进行综述。