Risk Factor For Overall Mortality Research Articles

Long-term outcomes of primary aortic valve repair in children with congenital aortic stenosis - 15-year experience at a single center.

BackgroundStudies on the long-term outcomes of children with congenital aortic stenosis who underwent primary aortic repair are limited. We reviewed the long-term outcomes of children who underwent aortic valve (AoV) repair at our center.MethodsAll children (n = 75) who underwent AoV repair between 2006 and 2020 were reviewed. The Kaplan-Meier curve was used to demonstrate the survival estimates. The Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk regression model were used to identify risk factors for death, reintervention, adverse events, and replacement.ResultsThe median age at surgery was 1.8 (IQR, 0.2–7.7) years, and the median weight at surgery was 10.0 (IQR, 5.0–24.0) kg. Early mortality and late mortality were 5.3% (4/75) and 5.6% (4/71), respectively. Risk factors for overall mortality were concomitant mitral stenosis (P = 0.01, HR: 9.8, 95% CI: 1.8–53.9), low AoV annulus Z-score (P = 0.01, HR: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4–0.9), and prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass time (P < 0.01, HR: 9.5, 95% CI: 1.7–52.1). Freedom from reintervention was 72.9 ± 0.10% (95% CI: 56.3–94.4%) at 10 years. Risk factors for occurrence of adverse event on multivariable analysis included preoperative intubation (P = 0.016, HR: 1.004, 95% CI: 1.001–1.007) and a low AoV annulus Z-score (P = 0.019, HR: 0.714, 95% CI: 0.540–0.945). Tricuspid AoV morphology was associated with a suboptimal postoperative outcome (P = 0.03).ConclusionAortic valve repair remains a safe and durable solution for children with congenital aortic stenosis. Concomitant mitral stenosis and aortic valve anatomy, including tricuspid valve morphology and smaller annulus size, are associated with poor early and long-term outcomes.

Liver transplantation for NAFLD cirrhosis: Age and recent coronary angioplasty are major determinants of survival.

Liver transplantation (LT) is the treatment of end-stage non-alcoholic liver disease (NAFLD), that is decompensated cirrhosis and/or complicated by hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Few data on long-term outcome are available. The aim of this study was to evaluate overall patient and graft survivals and associated predictive factors. This retrospective multicentre study included adult transplant patients for NAFLD cirrhosis between 2000 and 2019 in participating French-speaking centres. A total of 361 patients (69.8% of male) were included in 20 centres. The median age at LT was 62.3 years [57.4-65.9] and the median MELD score was 13.9 [9.1-21.3]; 51.8% of patients had HCC on liver explant. Between 2004 and 2018, the number of LT for NAFLD cirrhosis increased by 720%. A quarter of the patients had cardiovascular history before LT. Median follow-up after LT was 39.1months [15.8-72.3]. Patient survival at 1, 5 and 10 years after LT was 89.3%, 79.8% and 68.1% respectively. The main causes of death were sepsis (37.5%), malignancies (29.2%) and cardiovascular events (22.2%). In multivariate analysis, three risk factors for overall mortality after LT were recipient pre-LT BMI < 32 kg/m2 at LT time (OR: 2.272; p=.012), pre-LT angioplasty during CV check-up (OR: 2.916; p=.016), a combined donor and recipient age over 135 years (OR: 2.020; 95%CI: p=.035). Survival after LT for NAFLD cirrhosis is good at 5 years. Donor and recipient age, and cardiovascular history, are major prognostic factors to consider.

Association between Atrioventricular Block and Mortality in Primary Care Patients: The CODE Study.

ResumoFundamento O bloqueio atrioventricular (BAV) descreve um comprometimento na condução dos átrios para os ventrículos. Embora o curso clínico do BAV tenha sido avaliado, os achados são de países de alta renda e, portanto, não podem ser extrapolados para a população latina.Objetivo Avaliar a associação entre BAV e mortalidade.Métodos Foram incluídos pacientes do estudo CODE (Clinical Outcomes in Digital Electrocardiology), maiores de 16 anos que realizaram eletrocardiograma (ECG) digital de 2010 a 2017. Os ECGs foram relatados por cardiologistas e por software automatizado. Para avaliar a relação entre BAV e mortalidade, foram utilizados o modelo log-normal e as curvas de Kaplan-Meier com valores de p bicaudais < 0,05 considerados estatisticamente significativos.Resultados O estudo incluiu 1.557.901 pacientes; 40,23% eram homens e a média de idade foi de 51,7 (DP ± 17,6) anos. Durante um seguimento médio de 3,7 anos, a mortalidade foi de 3,35%. A prevalência de BAV foi de 1,38% (21.538). Os pacientes com BAV de primeiro, segundo e terceiro graus foram associados a uma taxa de sobrevida 24% (taxa de sobrevida relativa [RS] = 0,76; intervalo de confiança [IC] de 95%: 0,71 a 0,81; p < 0,001), 55% (RS = 0,45; IC de 95%: 0,27 a 0,77; p = 0,01) e 64% (RS = 0,36; IC de 95%: 0,26 a 0,49; p < 0,001) menor quando comparados ao grupo controle, respectivamente. Os pacientes com BAV 2:1 tiveram 79% (RS = 0,21; IC de 95%: 0,08 a 0,52; p = 0,005) menor taxa de sobrevida do que o grupo controle. Apenas Mobitz tipo I não foi associado a maior mortalidade (p = 0,27).Conclusão BAV foi um fator de risco independente para mortalidade geral, com exceção do BAV Mobitz tipo I.

Proton Pump Inhibitor-Induced Gut Dysbiosis Increases Mortality Rates for Patients with Clostridioides difficile Infection.

ABSTRACTClostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is associated with high mortality rates among patients with chronic illnesses. We aimed to identify avoidable risk factors to reduce the mortality rate in CDI patients. A total of 306 patients with diarrhea and clinical suspicion of CDI were enrolled, and fecal samples were gathered from 145 patients. CDI was diagnosed by fecal positivity for the C. difficile tcdB gene. Risk factors associated with death within 180 days were identified using Cox regression analysis. The fecal microbiota was determined through bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Of the patients with diarrhea, 240 (mean age, 69.1 years) were positive for CDI, and 91 died within 180 days. Multivariate analysis revealed that male sex, high Charlson Comorbidity Index and McCabe scores, high serum C-reactive protein levels, low hematocrit levels, low absolute eosinophil counts, high neutrophil/lymphocyte ratios, and daily use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) were independent risk factors for overall mortality. Cumulative analyses confirmed the association of duration-dependent PPI use with a high mortality rate. Fecal microbiota analyses showed associations of decreased relative abundance of Ruminococcus gnavus (P = 0.001) and Prevotella copri (P = 0.025) and increased relative abundance of Parabacteroides merdae (P = 0.001) and Clostridioides difficile (P = 0.040) with higher mortality rates in patients with CDI. Moreover, these microbiota changes were correlated with the duration of PPI use.IMPORTANCE This article demonstrates that daily PPI use was the only avoidable risk factor for death. With more extended PPI use, the mortality rate was higher in patients with CDI. Decreases in Prevotella copri and Ruminococcus gnavus and increases in Parabacteroides merdae and Clostridioides difficile in line with daily PPI use duration were significantly associated with the death of CDI patients. Our findings provide in-depth insights into the cautious use of PPIs in chronically ill patients with CDI.

The Predictive Role of Intraoperative Blood Transfusion Components in the Prognosis of Heart Transplantation.

PurposeTo evaluate the influence of transfusion amount of blood components on the prognosis of patients after heart transplantation (HTx).MethodsFrom 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2020, 568 patients underwent HTx in our institute. A total of 416 recipients with complete datasets were enrolled in the study for final statistical analysis according to the inclusion criteria. The optimal cut-off values for intraoperative transfusion of red blood cell (RBC), platelet, and plasma were determined with receiver operating curve analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to compare baseline data of patients divided by the transfusion amounts of RBC, platelet, and plasma. Propensity score matching was used to enable the direct comparison of outcomes.ResultsThe Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed that transfusion amounts of RBC and plasma were independently associated with overall mortality, increased intensive care unit stay time, and major adverse events after transplantation. The multivariate Cox regression analysis suggested that neurological complications (p = 0.001), liver damage (p = 0.011), and respiratory complications (p = 0.044) were independent risk factors for overall mortality after HTx. Combining indicators presented a good predicting effect of peritransplant period mortality (AUC = 0.718).ConclusionThe mortality of HTx was significantly related to the high-amount transfusion of RBC and plasma. Comprehensively considering the components of blood transfusion obtained better predictive results of peritransplant period survival than solely considering a single component.

Results of the arterial switch operation for Taussig-Bing variants in the setting of a lower-middle income country: A single-institution experience.

This study was conducted to evaluate the surgical results of the arterial switch operation for Taussig-Bing variants, at a single institution in a lower-middle income country. Between June 2010 and December 2018, all consecutive patients diagnosed with Taussig-Bing variants who underwent the arterial switch operation and ventricular septal defect closure were included in the study. A total of 72 patients of Taussig-Bing variants underwent arterial switch operation and ventricular septal defect closure. There were 10 early deaths (13.9%) and 2 late deaths (2.8%). Intraoperative ventricular septal defect enlargement (hazard ratio [HR] 7.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1294-16.7167; p < .001), secondary aortic cross-clamping (HR 28.38, 95% CI 4.8427-166.3484; p < .001), postoperative pneumonia (HR 5.64, 95% CI 1.2724-24.9917; p = .023), and postoperative sepsis (HR 5.28, 95% CI 1.3512-20.6553; p = .017) were risk factors for overall mortality by competing risk analysis. Sixty patients (83.3%) required septoparietal trabeculation division/resection during the arterial switch operation in an attempt to avoid right ventricular outflow tract obstruction. The reoperation rate for right ventricular outflow tract obstruction at last follow up was 6% (three patients). The estimated freedom from reoperation for right ventricular outflow tract obstruction at 1, 5, and 9 years was 98.3%, 91.9%, and 91.9%, respectively. The results of arterial switch operation for Taussig-Bing variants were satisfactory in the operative setting of a lower-middle income country, and performing extensive septoparietal trabeculation division might reduce the reintervention rate for right ventricular outflow tract obstruction in these patients.

Diabetes mellitus type 2 does not influence carotid stiffness in patients on maintenance hemodialysis

Abstract Patients on maintenance hemodialysis are a group with high cardiovascular risk, characterized by high arterial stiffness, which is considered a novel cardiovascular risk factor. Diabetes mellitus is both one of the leading causes of end-stage renal disease and a determinant of poor outcome in this group. The aim of the study was to examine carotid stiffness with high resolution echo-tracking in order to assess the influence of diabetes mellitus on arterial stiffness in this group. Ninety patients (47 F; 43 M) with end-stage renal disease on maintenance hemodialysis were divided into two subgroups: diabetic and nondiabetic (37 and 53 patients respectively). They underwent clinical examination, laboratory tests, and ultrasonographic carotid stiffness assessment both before and after hemodialysis. Local arterial stiffness parameters β, Ep, AC, and PWVβ were calculated. Patient survival was assessed after a 58-month-long follow-up. During the 58-month period 25 of these diabetic patients died, as did 18 non-diabetic patients. Diabetes mellitus was a risk factor for overall mortality among the group of hemodialysed patients. Patients who died from non-cardiovascular causes significantly more often suffered from diabetes mellitus than survivors. There were no statistically significant differences in local arterial stiffness between the groups. Local arterial stiffness in hemodialysed patients, assessed with high resolution echo-tracking, is not influenced by the presence of diabetes.

Prognostic value of SARS-CoV-2 on patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

ObjectiveTo analyze Italian Cardiac Surgery experience during the pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) identifying risk factors for overall mortality according to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) status.MethodsFrom February 20 to May 31, 2020, 1354 consecutive adult patients underwent cardiac surgery at 22 Italian Centers; 589 (43.5%), patients came from the red zone. Based on COVID‐19 status, 1306 (96.5%) were negative to SARS‐CoV‐2 (COVID‐N), and 48 (3.5%) were positive to SARS‐CoV‐2 (COVID‐P); among the COVID‐P 11 (22.9%) and 37 (77.1%) become positive, before and after surgery, respectively. Surgical procedures were as follows: 396 (29.2%) isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 714 (52.7%) isolated non‐CABG procedures, 207 (15.3%) two associate procedures, and three or more procedures in 37 (2.7%). Heart failure was significantly predominant in group COVID‐N (10.4% vs. 2.5%, p = .01).ResultsOverall in‐hospital mortality was 1.6% (22 cases), being significantly higher in COVID‐P group (10 cases, 20.8% vs. 12, 0.9%, p < .001). Multivariable analysis identified COVID‐P condition as a predictor of in‐hospital mortality together with emergency status. In the COVID‐P subgroup, the multivariable analysis identified increasing age and low oxygen saturation at admission as risk factors for in‐hospital mortality.ConclusionAs expected, SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, either before or soon after cardiac surgery significantly increases in‐hospital mortality. Moreover, among COVID‐19‐positive patients, older age and poor oxygenation upon admission seem to be associated with worse outcomes.

Abnormal Liver Tests during Hospitalization Predict Mortality in Patients with COVID-19: A Multicenter Study from South America

Background The role of liver function tests (LFT) as prognostic factors in patients admitted with COVID-19 has not been fully investigated, particularly outside resource-rich countries. We aimed at evaluating the prognostic value of abnormal LFT on admission and during hospitalization of patients with COVID-19. Methods We performed a retrospective study that included 298 adult patients hospitalized for COVID-19, between 05/2020 and 02/2021, in 6 hospitals from 5 countries in South America. We analyzed demographic and comorbid variables and laboratory tests on admission and during hospitalization. LFT over twice the upper limit of normal (ALEx2) were also evaluated in relation to a variety of factors on admission and during hospitalization. De novo-ALEx2 was defined as the presence of ALEx2 at one week of hospitalization in patients without ALEx2 on admission. Patients were followed until hospital discharge or death. Multivariable analysis was used to evaluate the association between ALEx2 on admission and during hospitalization and mortality. Results Of the total of 298 patients, 60% were male, with a mean age of 60 years, and 74% of patients had at least one comorbidity. Of those, 137 (46%) patients were transferred to the intensive care unit and 66 (22.1%) patients died during hospitalization. ALEx2 on admission was present in 87 (29.2%) patients and was found to be independently associated with 1-week mortality (odds ratio (OR) = 3.55; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 1.05–12.05). Moreover, 84 (39.8%) out of 211 patients without ALEx2 at admission developed de novo-ALEx2, which was independently associated with mortality during second week of hospitalization (OR = 6.09; 95%CI 1.28–29) and overall mortality (OR = 2.93, 95%CI 1.05–8.19). Conclusions A moderate elevation of LFT during admission was associated with a poor short-term prognosis in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. In addition, moderate elevation of LFT at one week of hospitalization was an independent risk factor for overall mortality in these patients.

Serum Uric Acid Is a Weak Independent Predictor of Overall Survival in Older Adults.

Hyperuricemia accompanies many pathologies that contribute to overall death rate. The population-based multifaceted study of older adults in Poland made it possible to assess the effect of serum uric acid (SUA) on overall mortality. The PolSenior study performed between 2007–2011 included 3926 participants aged 65 years or above (mean age 79 ± 9 years) not treated with xanthin oxidase inhibitors (XOI) who were stratified by sex and SUA concentration into six subgroups increasing by 1 mg/dL. In 2019, survival data were retrieved from the population register. The crude risk of death was significantly higher in men and women with SUA ≥ 7 mg/dL. After adjustment to statistically significant factors, SUA remained a risk factor of death in men with SUA ≥ 8 mg/dL only, potentially due to the limited number of women with high SUA levels. Furthermore, age, heart failure, diabetes, and activities of daily living ≤ 4 pts were identified as factors increasing mortality risk regardless of sex. The risk of death increased also with smoking, past stroke, COPD/asthma, and hs-CRP > 3 mg/dL for men; and eGFR < 45 mL/min/1.73 m2, mini nutritional assessment ≤ 7 pts, and loop diuretics use for women. Mild hyperuricemia is a significant health status marker and an independent risk factor for overall mortality in older Caucasians not receiving XOI. Increased mortality is mostly limited to subjects with SUA levels ≥ 8 mg/dL.

Prognostic significance of bladder neck involvement in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer: A SEER database analysis with 19,919 patients.

PurposeTo study prognostic values of bladder neck involvement (BNI) and survival outcomes in non‐muscle‐invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC).Method and materialsThe national Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004–2015) was applied to gain further insight into the prognostic values of BNI and 19,919 patients diagnosed with NMIBC were included in our study. We used the Kaplan–Meier method with the log‐rank test and subgroup analyses to evaluate cancer‐specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). In addition, the multivariable Cox proportional hazard model and propensity score matching (PSM) were utilized.ResultsIn all, 3446 patients with BNI and 16,473 patients with sites except for bladder neck were enrolled in our study. Compared with other sites, a tendency toward a higher proportion of higher grade (p < 0.001), bigger tumor size (p < 0.001), and more patients with T1 and Tis stage (p < 0.001) was seen in BNI group. After 1:1 PSM, 3425 matched pairs were selected. Under the survival analyses, the BNI group had a lower survival probability in both OS (p = 0.0056) and CSS analyses (p < 0.0001) in NMIBC patients. However, in the subgroup analysis, only observed in the Ta and T1 stage in terms of CSS (all p < 0.05), and patients with Tis stage failed to show statistical survival differences (p > 0.05). In addition, subgroups stratified by tumor size and grade all revealed poor prognosis of BNI in NMIBC patients. Moreover, better survival outcomes of OS were observed in BNI patients who received radical cystectomy (p = 0.02) or chemotherapy (p < 0.001) multivariable Cox regression after PSM revealed that the BNI group had a higher risk of overall mortality (OM) (BNI vs. other sites hazards ratios [HR]: 1.127, 95% CI: 1.154–1.437, p < 0.001) and cancer‐specific mortality (CSM) (BNI vs. other sites HR: 1.127, 95% CI: 1.039–1.223, p < 0.001), while before PSM, similar situations were only existed in CSM (BNI vs. other sites HR: 1.288, 95% CI: 1.154–1.437, p < 0.001).ConclusionsThe prognosis of BNI was poorer than that of the other sites. BNI was an independent risk factor for OM and CSM in patients with NMIBC, especially for those with Ta or T1 stage.

Outcomes and Predictors of Mortality in a Belgian Population of Patients Admitted with Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm and Treated by Open Repair in the Contemporary Era

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rupture is a serious condition that results in extremely high mortality rates. Some improvements in outcome have been reported during the last 2 decades. The objective of the present study was to determine the overall and operative (by open repair) mortality related to ruptured AAA in the contemporary era and to identify preoperative, intraoperative, and early postoperative parameters associated with poor outcomes. We performed a retrospective review of all consecutive patients admitted to our single institution with a diagnosis of ruptured AAA between 2004 and 2013. A total of 103 parameters, including demographic characteristics, medical history, clinical and biological parameters, cardiovascular risk factors, emergency level, diagnostic modalities, time from symptoms to diagnosis and treatment, type of operative procedure and postoperative complications, were analyzed. The primary endpoint considered in this study was the cumulative incidence rate of mortality. The secondary endpoint was the identification, by logistic regression methods, of risk factors for overall mortality as well as for operative, and postoperative mortality. Within our study period, 104 patients were admitted for a ruptured AAA. The majority of patients (84.6%) were male, and the AAA was known in 34.6% of the patients. Rupture occurred for a maximal diameter lower than 55 mm in 25% of the female population, compared to 5.7% of the male population (P = 0.030). The proportions of admitted patients who died before (preoperative mortality), during (intraoperative mortality) or after (postoperative hospital mortality) surgery was 17.3%, 16.3%, and 18.3%, respectively, yielding a cumulative in-hospital mortality of 51.9%. In the multivariate analysis, age ≥ 80 (P = 0.001), myocardial ischemia on the admission ECG (P = 0.046), and management by the physician response unit (P = 0.002) were the only preoperative parameters associated with a higher risk of hospital mortality. Four risk factors were found to be associated with a higher risk of postoperative mortality in the multivariate analysis, and all patients presenting with 3 or more of these risk factors (n = 5) died. The overall mortality of ruptured AAA in a contemporary cohort of patients who underwent open repair remains high and does not seem to have decreased during recent decades. Ruptures occur at smaller diameters in women than in men, supporting a lower threshold for intervention in women with known AAA. We developed risk scores to predict the mortality of patients with rAAA at different times of their hospital course. The validity of these scores should be assessed in prospective clinical studies.

Cardiovascular mortality in liver and kidney transplant recipients: A retrospective analysis from a single institution.

Previous studies have demonstrated cardiovascular causes to be among the leading causes of death after liver (LT) and kidney transplantation (KT). Although both recipient populations have unique pre-transplant cardiovascular burdens, they share similarities in post-transplant exposure to cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of this study was to compare cardiovascular mortality after LT and KT.We analyzed causes of death in 370 consecutive LT and 207 KT recipients from in-hospital records at a single tertiary transplant center. Cardiovascular causes of death were defined as cardiac arrest, heart failure, pulmonary embolism, or myocardial infarction.After a median follow-up of 36.5 months, infection was the most common cause of death in both cohorts, followed by cardiovascular causes in KT recipients and graft-related causes in LT recipients in whom cardiovascular causes were the third most common. Cumulative incidence curves for cardiovascular mortality computed with death from other causes as the competing risk were not significantly different (P = .36). While 1-year cumulative cardiovascular mortality was similar (1.6% after LT and 1.5% after KT), the estimated 4-year probability was higher post-KT (3.8% vs. 1.6%). Significant pre-transplant risk factors for overall mortality after KT in multivariable analysis were age at transplantation, left ventricular ejection fraction <50%, and diastolic dysfunction grade 2 or greater, while significant risk factors for cardiovascular mortality were peripheral artery disease and left ventricular ejection fraction <50%. In the LT group no variables remained significant in a multivariable model for either overall or cardiovascular mortality.The present study found no significant overall difference in cardiovascular mortality after LT and KT. While LT and KT recipients may have similar early cardiovascular mortality, long-term risk is potentially lower after LT. Differing characteristics of cardiovascular death between these two patient populations should be further investigated.

Re-Operative Aortic Arch Surgery in a Contemporary Series

Re-operative aortic arch operations (REDO) following previous cardiac surgery are challenging procedures associated with significant morbidity and mortality. We investigated post-operative outcomes for patients undergoing REDO and identified risk-factors for mortality in a contemporary series. From 1/2005-6/2018, 365 consecutive patients at an academic center underwent REDO: 257 HEMIARCH and 108 COMPLETE arch (45 stage I elephant trunk, 63 total arch) replacements. Outcomes included mortality and major adverse events. Long-term survival was determined with Kaplan-Meier analysis, and risk-factors for mortality were assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression. Operative mortality for the entire cohort was 6.8%, and rates of stroke, cardiac arrest, and renal failure were 6.0%, 7.4%, and 10.4%. Compared to HEMIARCH, COMPLETE patients had an increased incidence of renal failure requiring dialysis (15.7% vs 8.2%, p = 0.031) and re-exploration for bleeding or delayed chest closure (19.4% vs. 11.7%, p = 0.051). Although operative mortality was similar in both cohorts, long-term follow-up mortality (38.0% vs 26.8%, p = 0.047) was higher among COMPLETE vs. HEMIARCH. Predictors ofoverall mortalityamong all-comers undergoing REDO included older age, low body surface area, endocarditis, ejection fraction <30%, emergent status of operation, extended cardiopulmonary bypass duration, intra-aortic balloon pump use, and a more extensive arch operation. Previous aortic surgery was not a risk-factor for mortality. Among all-comers undergoing REDO, survival was 81.4% at 1 year, 66.7% at 5 years, and 56.4% at 10 years of follow-up. While early postoperative outcomes are similar among HEMIARCH and COMPLETE, a more extensive arch-replacement is an independent risk-factor for overall mortality in REDO. Using appropriate clinical indications in the current era, REDO remains a viable option for selected patients.

Severe acute graft-versus-host disease increases the incidence of blood stream infection and mortality after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation: Japanese transplant registry study.

This study aimed to clarify the risk factors and prognosis associated with blood stream infection (BSI) in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT), and the relationship between BSI and acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD). This retrospective analysis included 11,098 patients in the Japanese national transplant registry. A total of 2172 patients developed BSI after allo-HCT, with 2332 identified pathogens. The cumulative incidences of BSI were 15.5% at 30 days and 20.9% at 100 days after allo-HCT. In a multivariate analysis, severe (grade III-IV) aGVHD was associated with a higher risk of BSI (vs. grade 0-I aGVHD: hazard ratio [HR] 3.34 [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.85-3.92; P < 0.001]). In a multivariate analysis, severe aGVHD before BSI was associated with a higher risk of overall mortality after BSI (vs. grade 0-I aGVHD: HR 2.61 [95% CI 2.18-3.11; P < 0.001]). In addition, BSI (vs. no-BSI: HR 1.20 [95% CI, 1.12-1.29; P < 0.001]) and severe aGVHD (vs. grade 0-I aGVHD: HR 1.97 [95% CI, 1.83-2.12; P < 0.001]) were independent risk factors for overall mortality after allo-HCT. In the setting of allo-HCT, severe aGVHD was associated with increases in both BSI incidence and post-BSI overall mortality. Furthermore, BSI was an independent risk factor for overall mortality.

Risk Factor for Overall Mortality in Lung and Cardiopulmonary Transplantation: A Monocentric Cohort Study from 2006 to 2018

Risk Factor for Overall Mortality in Lung and Cardiopulmonary Transplantation: A Monocentric Cohort Study from 2006 to 2018

Ventricular pre-excitation in primary care patients: Evaluation of the risk of mortality.

Ventricular pre-excitation is characterized by the presence of atrioventricular accessory pathways, predisposing to arrhythmias. Although it is well established that risk stratification in symptomatic patients should be invasive, there is a lack of evidence of the benefit in asymptomatic. Evaluate ventricular pre-excitation in the electrocardiogram (ECG) as a risk factor for overall mortality in patients of Telehealth Network of Minas Gerais (TNMG), Brazil. This observational study was developed with the database of digital ECGs (2010-2017) from TNMG. The electronic cohort was obtained by linking data from ECG exams and those from the national mortality information system. Only the first ECG was considered. Clinical data were self-reported, and ECGs were interpreted manually by cardiologists and automatically by the Glasgow University Interpreter software. Hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was estimated using weighted Cox regression. Nearly1 665 667 patients were included (median age:50 [Q1: 34; Q3: 63] years; 41.4% were male). In a mean follow-up of 3.7 years, the overall mortality rate was 3.1%. The prevalence of ventricular pre-excitation was 0.07%. In multivariate analysis, adjusting for sex and age, ventricular pre-excitation was not associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-3.57; p = .47) when compared to the whole sample or to patients with normal ECG (HR: 1.41; 95% CI: 0.53-4.36; p = .43). In a subanalysis on accessory pathway location, there was no evidence of a higher risk of death related to any location. Ventricular pre-excitation was not associated with an increased risk of mortality in a primary care cohort.

1153. Characterization of Invasive Mold Infections in Acute Leukemia and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipient Patients and Risk Factors for Mortality - a Single Center Experience

BackgroundInvasive mold infections (IMIs) remain a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with acute leukemia (AL) and those undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We describe the epidemiology of IMIs, the incidence of IMI in patients with acute myelogenous Leukemia (AML) post HSCT, and risk factors for mortality.MethodsPatients were identified using ICD9 and ICD10 codes using a University of Kansas internal database from 2009-2019, microbiology records, and an AML HSCT database and were followed through May 1st, 2020. Patients’ electronic medical records were reviewed for inclusion. IMI was defined as proven or probable using the 2009 National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Mycoses Study Group (MSG) guidelines. Incidence was calculated as IMI cases/100-person-years. Risk factors for overall mortality were evaluated using a Cox regression model.ResultsWe included 138 patients: 79 developed IMI after HSCT (8 autologous, 71 allogeneic) and 59 developed IMI after AL diagnosis. Seventeen of the AL patients underwent HSCT after IMI diagnosis (12 within 100 days of IMI). Proven IMI occurred in 45 (32.6%) and probable IMI occurred in 93 (67.4%) patients. The most common prophylactic agent prior to IMI diagnosis was fluconazole (31.2%), with 21.0% receiving none. Aspergillus was the most commonly identified mold with 91 (65.9%) cases. The average treatment duration was 101 (range 0 - 799) days. The incidence of IMI in patients with AML who underwent HSCT was 2.35 cases/100 person-years. All-cause mortality among patients with AL or HSCT who developed IMI was 23.1% at 6 weeks, 34.1% at 12 weeks, and 61.2% at 1 year. On univariate Cox model, Karnofsky performance status > 70 was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 0.317, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.110, 0.914]) among HSCT recipients. ICU admission within 7 days prior to IMI diagnosis (HR 6.469, 95% CI [1.779, 23.530]) and each one point increase in BMI (HR 1.051, CI [1.001, 1.103]) were associated with increased mortality in the AL group.Figure 1 - Invasive mold infections by pathogen in HSCT-recipients and acute leukemia patients from 2009-2019. Figure 2 - Antifungal prophylactic agents prescribed for at least one week at time of IMI diagnosis Table 1 - Univariate survival analysis calculated using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model among patients who developed IMI after HSCT and patients who developed IMI after acute leukemia diagnosis ConclusionIMIs are associated with significant mortality in HSCT recipients and AL patients; patients at higher risk for mortality include those with lower baseline Karnofsky scores, recent ICU admissions, and higher BMI at time of IMI diagnosis.Disclosures Wissam El Atrouni, MD, ViiV (Advisor or Review Panel member)

Abstract 16883: Validation of a Deep Neural Network Electrocardiographic-Age as a Mortality Predictor: The CODE Study

Introduction: Aging affects the electrocardiogram (ECG) with a higher incidence of abnormalities in older patients. ECG-age can be predicted by artificial intelligence (AI) and can be used as a measure of cardiovascular health. Hypothesis: ECG-age predicted by AI is a risk factor for overall mortality. Methods: The Clinical Outcomes in Digital Electrocardiography (CODE) study is a retrospective cohort with a mean follow-up of 3.67 years.The dataset consists of Brazilian patients, mainly from primary care centers. Two established cohorts, ELSA-Brasil, of Brazilian public servants, and SaMi-Trop, of Chagas disease patients, were used for external validation. 2,322,513 ECGs from 1,558,421 patients over 16 years old that underwent an ECG from 2010 to 2017 were included. A deep convolutional neural network was trained in order to predict the age of the patient based solely on ECG 12-lead tracings. The ECG database was split into 85-15% training and test datasets, respectively. Death was ascertained using probabilistic linkage with Brazil′s mortality information data. The Cox regression model, adjusted by age and sex, was used for statistical analysis. The model was validated in two cohorts: ELSA-Brasil (n=14,263) and SaMi-Trop (n=1,631). Results: he mean predicted ECG-age was 52.0 years (±18.7) with a mean absolute error of 8.38 (±7.0) years. Patients with ECG-age &gt;8y older than chronological age had higher mortality rate (HR 1.79, 95%CI 1.69-1.90; p&lt;0.001), whereas those ECG-age &gt;8y younger than chronological age were associated with a lower mortality rate (HR 0.78, 95%CI 0.74-0.83; p&lt;0.001). These results were similar in ELSA-Brasil and SaMi-Trop external validation cohorts (HR 1.75, 95%CI 1.35-2.27; p&lt;0.001;HR 2.42, 95%CI 1.53-3.83; p&lt;0.001 for &gt;8y difference, retrospectively; HR 0.74, 95%CI 0.63-0.88; p&lt;0.001;HR 0.89, 95%CI 0.52-1.54; p=0.68 for &lt;8y difference, respectively). Conclusions: ECG-age, predicted by AI, can be useful as a tool for risk stratification of mortality.

A meta-analysis of clinical predictors for renal recovery and overall mortality in acute kidney injury requiring continuous renal replacement therapy.

To determine clinical predictors for continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) discontinuation in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI). Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library were searched. The protocol is registered on researchregistry.com (reviewregistry909). Our criteria included non-end-stage kidney disease adults who required CRRT for AKI. Renal recovery was defined by CRRT discontinuation. Risk of bias was assessed using ROBINS-I tool. We classified our analyses into renal recovery cohort and overall mortality cohort. All studies were observational. For renal recovery cohort, increasing urine output at time of CRRT discontinuation, elevated initial SOFA score and serum creatinine at CRRT initiation were predictive of renal recovery with OR 1.021 (95%CI=1.011-1.031), 0.869 (95%CI=0.811-0.932) and 0.995 (95%CI=0.996-0.999), respectively. For overall mortality cohort, age and presence of sepsis were significantly associated with overall mortality with OR of 1.028 (95%CI=1.008-1.048) and 2.160 (95%CI=0.973-1.932), respectively. Urine output at CRRT discontinuation, lower initial SOFA score, and lower serum creatinine levels at CRRT initiation were associated with higher likelihood of renal recovery. Increasing age and the presence of sepsis were associated with increased overall mortality from AKI on CRRT. However, there were limited data on co-morbidities which might preclude their inclusion in our analysis.