Risk Factors For Hospital Mortality Research Articles

Etiology of Emergency Visit and In-Hospital Outcomes of Patients with COPD.

Backgrounds Patients with COPD often visit the emergency department (ED) due to exacerbation of respiratory symptoms (dyspnea, cough, and sputum production). Because manifestations of acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) are nonspecific, differential diagnosis is critical in this acute setting. The causes for emergency visiting and the in-hospital outcomes are varied in patients with COPD. This study aimed to investigate the distributions of etiologies and the in-hospital outcomes of patients with COPD who presented to the ED because of exacerbation of respiratory symptoms. Methods This was a retrospective study on COPD patients who had visited the ED and been hospitalized in a tertiary hospital because of worsening respiratory symptoms including cough, sputum production, and dyspnea from January 2017 to April 2020. Demographics, clinical manifestations, and laboratory studies in the ED were collected as the baseline data. The primary diagnosis at discharge or death was recorded. The hospitalization settings (general wards and ICU), the in-hospital outcomes, and associated factors were analyzed. Results During the study period, 392 patients with COPD (male 302 (77.0%)), with a median age of 78 years, visited the ED and hospitalized in this hospital. The first 3 causes for emergency visit were AECOPD (n = 314, 80.1%), acute coronary artery syndrome with or without congestive heart failure (n = 24, 6.1%), and pulmonary embolism (n = 13, 3.3%). For patients with AECOPD (n = 314), 51.6% (n = 162) was admitted to ICU, and 6.4% (n = 20) died. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that age, atrial fibrillation, NT-pro BNP ≥300 pg/ml, and blood pH <7.3 were independent risk factors for ICU admission. Age, comorbid malignancy, NT-pro BNP ≥1800 pg/ml, and pneumonia on CT scan were independent risk factors for hospital mortality in patients with AECOPD. Conclusion In COPD patients visiting the ED because of worsening respiratory symptoms, nearly 20% were due to non-AECOPD causes. For those with AECOPD, age, atrial fibrillation, NT-pro BNP ≥300 pg/ml, and blood pH <7.3 were independent risk factors for ICU admission, while advanced age, underlying malignancy, elevated NT-pro BNP, and pneumonia on CT scan were risk factors for hospital mortality.

Shedding light into the black box of out-of-hospital respiratory distress-A retrospective cohort analysis of discharge diagnoses, prehospital diagnostic accuracy, and predictors of mortality.

BackgroundAlthough respiratory distress is one of the most common complaints of patients requiring emergency medical services (EMS), there is a lack of evidence on important aspects.ObjectivesOur study aims to determine the accuracy of EMS physician diagnostics in the out-of-hospital setting, identify examination findings that correlate with diagnoses, investigate hospital mortality, and identify mortality-associated predictors.MethodsThis retrospective observational study examined EMS encounters between December 2015 and May 2016 in the city of Aachen, Germany, in which an EMS physician was present at the scene. Adult patients were included if the EMS physician initially detected dyspnea, low oxygen saturation, or pathological auscultation findings at the scene (n = 719). The analyses were performed by linking out-of-hospital data to hospital records and using binary logistic regressions.ResultsThe overall diagnostic accuracy was 69.9% (485/694). The highest diagnostic accuracies were observed in asthma (15/15; 100%), hypertensive crisis (28/33; 84.4%), and COPD exacerbation (114/138; 82.6%), lowest accuracies were observed in pneumonia (70/142; 49.3%), pulmonary embolism (8/18; 44.4%), and urinary tract infection (14/35; 40%). The overall hospital mortality rate was 13.8% (99/719). The highest hospital mortality rates were seen in pneumonia (44/142; 31%) and urinary tract infection (7/35; 20%). Identified risk factors for hospital mortality were metabolic acidosis in the initial blood gas analysis (odds ratio (OR) 11.84), the diagnosis of pneumonia (OR 3.22) reduced vigilance (OR 2.58), low oxygen saturation (OR 2.23), and increasing age (OR 1.03 by 1 year increase).ConclusionsOur data highlight the diagnostic uncertainties and high mortality in out-of-hospital emergency patients presenting with respiratory distress. Pneumonia was the most common and most frequently misdiagnosed cause and showed highest hospital mortality. The identified predictors could contribute to an early detection of patients at risk.

Association Between Red Blood Cell Distribution Width-Albumin Ratio and Hospital Mortality in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit: A Retrospective Study.

PurposeHigh levels of red blood cell distribution width (RDW) and hypoalbuminemia are markers of poor prognosis in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. However, few studies have shown that the red blood cell distribution width–albumin ratio (RAR) is related to the mortality of COPD. This study aimed to explore the relationship between RAR and hospital mortality in COPD patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).Patients and MethodsPatients were retrospectively incorporated from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database and divided into two groups by a cutoff value of RAR. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to adjust for the imbalance of covariates. Logistic regression models and subgroup analyses were carried out to investigate the relationship between RAR and hospital mortality. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive performance of RAR and decision curve analysis (DCA) to assess the clinical utility.ResultsIn total, 1174 patients were finally identified from the MIMIC-IV database. The cutoff value for RAR was 5.315%/g/dL. After PSM at a 1:1 ratio, 638 patients were included in the matched cohort. In the original and matched cohorts, the high RAR group had higher hospital mortality and longer hospital stays. Logistic regression analysis suggested that RAR was an independent risk factor for hospital mortality. The areas under the ROC curve in the original and matched cohorts were 0.706 and 0.611, respectively, which were larger than applying RDW alone (the original cohort: 0.600, the matched cohort: 0.514). The DCA indicated that RAR had a clinical utility.ConclusionA higher RAR (>5.315%/g/dL) was associated with hospital mortality in COPD patients admitted to ICU. As an easily available peripheral blood marker, RAR can predict hospital mortality in critically ill patients with COPD independently.

Association between preoperative dementia and hospital mortality in old old patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery.

Although many reports have shown that preoperative dementia affects surgical prognosis, it is unclear whether the dementia based on Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) affect hospital mortality in old old patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery. This study aims to investigate whether preoperative dementia might affect the outcomes of old old patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery by evaluating with the MMSE. All patients aged ≥ 75years who undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery form January 2015 to December 2021 in a Chinese tertiary hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Their preoperative cognitive status was evaluated using the MMSE, and analysis was performed to compare the patients with MMSE score < 24 (dementia group) or MMSE score 24-30 (non-dementia group). Risk factors for hospital mortality were explored using multivariate logistic regression analysis. 980 patients were rolled in the study, and 102 (10.4%) patients were in the dementia group. ICU and hospital stay were longer in the dementia group. Regarding the postoperative complications, the incidence of cerebral infarction (P = 0.014), delirium (P = 0.019), and pulmonary infection (P = 0.017) was more frequent in dementia group. Hospital mortality was 11% in the dementia group and 3% in the non-dementia group (P = 0.009). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that dementia (P = 0.0135), preoperative lower albumin (P = 0.0018) and malignancy (P = 0.0212) were independent risk factors for hospital mortality. Among old old patients undergoing elective gastrointestinal surgery, hospital mortality was increased significantly for patients with dementia evaluating with the MMSE.

Abnormal blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D in critically ill patients: prevalence, predictors, and its association with in-hospital mortality

BackgroundAbnormal vitamin D is prevalent in critical care settings, but its association with prognosis remains unclear. The study aimed to investigate the prevalence and predictors of abnormal blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), as well as its association with prognosis in critically ill patients.MethodsPatients aged ≥ 18 years who were once admitted to the intensive care units (ICUs) of the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 2008 and 2019 with at least one measurement record of blood 25(OH)D were included as study population. Baseline characteristics associated with deficient or elevated blood 25(OH)D were investigated by univariable logistic regression analysis. The association between abnormal blood 25(OH)D and hospital mortality was examined by multivariable logistic regression analysis.ResultsA total of 1091 patients were included. Deficient 25(OH)D (< 30 ng/mL) was found in 790 (72.41%) patients and 17 (1.56%) were with an elevated level (> 60 ng/mL). A younger age, male, comorbid liver disease, and dialysis were risk factors of deficient blood 25(OH)D, while comorbid myocardial infarction, dementia, and rheumatic disease were protective factors evaluated by univariable logistic regression. Being admitted to cardiac vascular ICU or coronary care unit were associated with increased risk of elevated blood 25(OH)D. Patients with elevated blood 25(OH)D showed non-significantly higher hospital mortality compared to those with normal or deficient blood 25(OH)D (35.29% versus 14.44% and 14.56%, P = 0.058). After adjusted for potential confounding factors, elevated blood 25(OH)D was associated with increased risk of hospital mortality [odds ratio (OR) 3.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22–11.82, P = 0.021] when compared to those with normal blood 25(OH)D, but there was no significant association between deficient blood 25(OH)D and hospital mortality (OR 1.12, 95% CI 0.74–1.72, P = 0.589).ConclusionsThese findings suggest deficient blood 25(OH)D was rather common in critically ill patients, but was not an independent risk factor of hospital mortality, while elevated blood 25(OH)D was associated with worse prognosis.

Is serum magnesium level associated with atrial fibrillation in the mixed medical/surgical intensive care unit setting?

Although low serum magnesium level is a a relatively common problem in mixed medical/surgical intensive care units (ICUs), its association with new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) has been studied to a lesser extent. We aimed to investigate the effect of magnesium levels on the development of NOAF in critically ill patients admitted to the mixed medical/surgical ICU. A total of 110 eligible patients (45 female, 65 male) were included in this case-control study. The age and sex-matched control group (n = 110) included patients with no atrial fibrillation from admission to discharge or death. The incidence of NOAF was 2.4% (n = 110) between January 2013 and June 2020. At NOAF onset or the matched time point, median serum magnesium levels were lower in the NOAF group than in the control group (0.84 [0.73-0.93] vs. 0.86 [0.79-0.97] mmol/L; p = 0.025). At NOAF onset or the matched time point, 24.5% (n = 27) in the NOAF group and 12.7% (n = 14) in the control group had hypomagnesemia (p = 0.037). Based on Model 1, multivariable analysis demonstrated magnesium level at NOAF onset or the matched time point (OR: 0.07; 95%CI: 0.01-0.44; p = 0.004), acute kidney injury (OR: 1.88; 95%CI: 1.03-3.40; p = 0.039), and APACHE II (OR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.09; p = 0.046) as factors independently associated with an increased risk of NOAF. Based on Model 2, multivariable analysis demonstrated hypomagnesemia at NOAF onset or the matched time point (OR: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.19-5.36; p = 0.016) and APACHE II (OR: 1.04; 95%CI: 1.01-1.09; p = 0.043) as factors independently associated with an increased risk of NOAF. In multivariate analysis for hospital mortality, NOAF was an independent risk factor for hospital mortality (OR: 3.22; 95% CI: 1.69-6.13, p<0.001). The development of NOAF in critically ill patients increases mortality. Critically ill patients with hypermagnesemia should be carefully evaluated for risk of NOAF.

Comorbidities and COVID-19 hospitalization, ICU admission and hospital mortality in Austria : Aretrospective cohort study.

BackgroundThe protection of vulnerable populations is a central task in managing the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to avoid severe courses of COVID-19 and the risk of healthcare system capacity being exceeded. To identify factors of vulnerability in Austria, we assessed the impact of comorbidities on COVID-19 hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and hospital mortality.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was performed including all patients with COVID-19 in the period February 2020 to December 2021 who had a previous inpatient stay in the period 2015–2019 in Austria. All patients with COVID-19 were matched to population controls on age, sex, and healthcare region. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) of included factors with 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsHemiplegia or paraplegia constitutes the highest risk factor for hospitalization (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.44–1.79), followed by COPD (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.43–1.53) and diabetes without complications (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.37–1.46). The highest risk factors for ICU admission are renal diseases (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.61–1.92), diabetes without complications (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.46–1.69) and COPD (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41–1.66). Hemiplegia or paraplegia, renal disease and COPD constitute the highest risk factors for hospital mortality, with ORs of 1.5. Diabetes without complications constitutes a significantly higher risk factor for women with respect to all three endpoints.ConclusionWe contribute to the literature by identifying sex-specific risk factors. In general, our results are consistent with the literature, particularly regarding diabetes as a risk factor for severe courses of COVID-19. Due to the observational nature of our data, caution is warranted regarding causal interpretation. Our results contribute to the protection of vulnerable populations and may be used for targeting further pharmaceutical interventions.

Clinical outcomes of limited repair and conservative approaches in older patients with acute type A aortic dissection

BackgroundSurgical indication and the selection of surgical procedures for acute type A aortic dissection in older patients are controversial; therefore, we aimed to examine the surgical outcomes of acute type A aortic dissection in older patients.MethodsFrom January 2012 through December 2019, 174 patients underwent surgical repair for acute type A aortic dissection. We compared the surgical outcomes between the older (≥ 80 years old) and below-80 (≤ 79 years old) age groups. Additionally, we compared the outcomes between the surgical and conservative treatment groups.ResultsThe primary entry was found in the ascending aorta in 51.6% and 32.8% of the older and below-80 groups, respectively (p = 0.049). Ascending or hemiarch replacement was performed in all older group patients and 57.3% of the below-80 group patients (total arch replacement was performed in the remaining 42.7%; p < 0.001). Hospital mortality rates were similar in both groups. The significant risk factors for hospital mortality were age, preoperative intubation, cardiopulmonary bypass time, and postoperative stroke. The 5-year survival rates were 48.4% ± 10.3% (older group) and 86.7% ± 2.9% (below-80 group; p < 0.001). The rates of freedom from aortic events at 5 years were 86.9% ± 8.7% (older group) and 86.5% ± 3.9% (below-80 group; p = 0.771). The 5-year survival rate of the conservative treatment subgroup was 19.2% ± 8.0% in the older group, which was not significantly different from that of the surgical treatment subgroup (p = 0.103).ConclusionThe surgical approach did not achieve a significant survival advantage over conservative treatment and may not always be a reasonable treatment of choice for older patients.

Surgical Remodeling of the Left Ventricle in Patients with Post-Infarction Dilation and Heart Failure

INTRODUCTION The cause of heart failure in patients with coronary artery disease after anterior myocardial infarction may be dilatation of the cavity of the left ventricle (LV) with subsequent unfavorable course of the disease. In the case of early reperfusion, which prevents transmural myocardial necrosis, the damaged segment more often becomes akinetic than dyskinetic. Surgical remodeling of the left ventricle (SRLV) is aimed at reducing the volume and restoring its elliptical shape by eliminating scars in the akinetic and/or dyskinetic segments.AIM OF STUDY To evaluate the survival of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) who had anterior wall myocardial infarction in the early and late periods after surgical remodeling of the left ventricle, in combination with coronary bypass grafting and/or interventions on the mitral valve.MATERIAL AND METHODS The study included 99 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) who had myocardial infarction of the anterior LV wall and with severe heart failure, who underwent surgical LV remodeling in the period from 2002 to 2020. The analysis of early and long-term results was carried out. The risk factors influencing lethality were determined.The mean age of the patients was 56.0±10.2 years (from 23 to 81 years). The vast majority of patients (90%) were men. LV ventriculoplasty was combined with coronary bypass grafting in 97 (98%) patients, with mitral valve repair in 2 (2%) patients, with mitral valve replacement in 2 (2%) patients.RESULTS In the early postoperative period, all patients showed an improvement in global LV systolic function. The ejection fraction (EF) of the left ventricle increased from the average preoperative average value of 34.2±3.7% to 43±4.2% in the postoperative period (р&lt;0,001). Left ventricular end systolic volume index (LVESV) decreased from 71.4±15.3 ml/m2 to 43.8±9.6 ml/m2, respectively (р&lt;0,001). In the early postoperative period, 5 (5%) patients used the following means of mechanical hemodynamic support: intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP), non-implantable device for temporary support of the left ventricle (LVAD) and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). The 30-day mortality rate after LVESV was 6%. Prior to surgery, all patients had NYHA functional class (FC) III or IV. In the postoperative period, all patients experienced regression of heart failure symptoms and improved exercise tolerance. NYHA functional class improved to I and II in 100% of cases. Using univariate analysis, it was possible to determine that EF ≤30%, LVESV ≥80 ml/m2 and pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) &gt;60 mm Hg. were risk factors for hospital mortality. The overall fifteen-year survival rate was 59.8±0.13%. The absence of readmission to the hospital due to recurrent angina pectoris, mitral valve dysfunction and progression of heart failure (HF) was 72% among surviving patients.CONCLUSION Surgical remodeling reduces the volume of the dilated left ventricle and restores its elliptical shape in patients with CAD after anterior myocardial infarction. The results of our study demonstrate an improvement in LV systolic function in all patients in the early postoperative period and low mortality, an acceptable fifteen-year survival rate, and a low readmission rate due to the progression of chronic heart failure (CHF).

Acute kidney injury-attributable mortality in critically ill patients with sepsis.

BackgroundTo assess whether acute kidney injury (AKI) is independently associated with hospital mortality in ICU patients with sepsis, and estimate the excess AKI-related mortality attributable to AKI.MethodsWe analyzed adult patients from two distinct retrospective critically ill cohorts: (1) Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC IV; n = 15,610) cohort and (2) Wenzhou (n = 1,341) cohort. AKI was defined by Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. We applied multivariate logistic and linear regression models to assess the hospital and ICU mortality, hospital length-of-stay (LOS), and ICU LOS. The excess attributable mortality for AKI in ICU patients with sepsis was further evaluated.ResultsAKI occurred in 5,225 subjects in the MIMIC IV cohort (33.5%) and 494 in the Wenzhou cohort (36.8%). Each stage of AKI was an independent risk factor for hospital mortality in multivariate logistic regression after adjusting for baseline illness severity. The excess attributable mortality for AKI was 58.6% (95% CI [46.8%–70.3%]) in MIMIC IV and 44.6% (95% CI [12.7%–76.4%]) in Wenzhou. Additionally, AKI was independently associated with increased ICU mortality, hospital LOS, and ICU LOS.ConclusionAcute kidney injury is an independent risk factor for hospital and ICU mortality, as well as hospital and ICU LOS in critically ill patients with sepsis. Thus, AKI is associated with excess attributable mortality.

Surgical outcomes of acute type A aortic dissection in septuagenarians and octogenarians.

We studied surgical outcomes of acute type A aortic dissection and compared early and late outcomes between septuagenarians and octogenarians. From 2010 to 2019, we evaluated 254 consecutive patients with acute type A aortic dissection. We performed emergent operations within 48 h of symptom onset for 188 patients, including 59 septuagenarians and 32 octogenarians. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 8.5% in septuagenarians and 9.4% in octogenarians (p = 1.0). The hospital mortality rate was 10.2% in septuagenarians and 12.5% in octogenarians (p = 0.74). Multivariate analysis identified prolonged ventilation (≥ 72 h) as a significant risk factor for hospital mortality. Being an octogenarian was not significantly associated with hospital mortality. The actuarial survival rate at 5 years was 80.1% in septuagenarians and 58.5% in octogenarians (log-rank p = 0.09). The freedom from aortic event rate at 5 years was 91.0% in septuagenarians and 100% in octogenarians (log-rank p = 0.23). The two groups showed no significant differences in hospital mortality or morbidity. Our tear-oriented strategies might be appropriate for both septuagenarians and octogenarians. Prolonged ventilation (≥ 72 h) was a significant risk predictor for hospital mortality.

Software for Medical Decision Support in the Prevention of Cardiovascular Mortality.

The stages in the development of a computer program supporting medical decision-making for assessment of the risk of hospital mortality from cardiovascular diseases are presented. The software is intended for use in penitentiary healthcare. Its development included identification of risk factors for hospital mortality using data mining and formation of a software algorithm. The automated prognosis provides a solution to the task of optimizing patient routing and selecting therapeutic tactics, contributing thereby to the prevention of hospital mortality.

Neonatal mortality in a public referral hospital in southern Haiti: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundHaiti has the highest rate of neonatal mortality in the Latin America and Caribbean region. While the rate of facility births in Haiti has doubled over the past two decades, there have been no comparable reductions in maternal or neonatal mortality. Little data is available on the clinical characteristics of complications and morbidities among newborns requiring hospitalization after birth and their contribution to neonatal mortality. There is a need to better understand the status of newborn clinical care capacity in Haiti to prioritize training and resources.MethodsWe performed a retrospective observational cohort study of neonates admitted to a large public referral hospital in southern Haiti in the first 2 years of operation of a new neonatal unit that we established. All neonate cases hospitalized in the unit in these 2 years were reviewed and analyzed to identify their clinical characteristics and outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors of hospital mortality. We present the outcomes for 1399 neonates admitted to the unit during August 2017 and August 2019.ResultsThe leading cause of death was prematurity, followed by hypoxia and infection. Inborn neonates had better rates of hospital survival than those born elsewhere; they were also more likely to be born via cesarean section and to be admitted immediately following birth. There were no differences between the proportion of premature or low-birth-weight babies born at the hospital or elsewhere. Mortality in the second year of the unit’s operation was 12%, almost half that of the first year (21%). Multivariable regression analysis showed that mortality was consistently higher among premature and very low birthweight babies.ConclusionsWith modest investments, we were able to halve the mortality on a neonatal unit in Haiti. Resources are needed to address prematurity as an important outcome since hospital mortality was significant in this group. To this end, investment in uninterrupted supplies of oxygen and antibiotics, as well as ensuring adequate newborn resuscitation, infection control, laboratory testing, and timely morbidity and mortality reviews would go a long way toward lowering hospital mortality in Haiti.

Extracorporeal Life Support for Status Asthmaticus: Early Outcomes in Teens and Young Adults.

Extracorporeal life support (ECLS) may be life saving for patients with status asthmaticus (SA), a difficult-to-treat, severe subset of asthma. Contemporary ECLS outcomes for SA in teens and young adults are not well described. The Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) Registry was reviewed (2009-2019) for patients (15-35 years) with a primary diagnosis of SA. In-hospital mortality and complications were described. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors for hospital mortality. Overall, 137 patients, (26 teens and 111 young adults; median age 25 years) were included. Extracorporeal life support utilization for SA sharply increased in 2010, coinciding with increased ECLS utilization overall. Median ECLS duration and length of stay were 97 hours and 11 days, respectively. In-hospital mortality and major complication rates were 10% and 11%, respectively. Nonsurvivors were more likely to have experienced ECLS complications, compared to survivors (86% vs. 42%, p = 0.003). Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality included pre-ECLS arrest and any renal and/or neurologic complication. Prospective studies designed to evaluate complications and subsequent failure to rescue may help optimize quality improvement efforts.

A prediction model for hospital mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BackgroundNo personalized prediction model or standardized algorithm exists to identify those at high risk of death among severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to investigate the risk factors and to develop a useful nomogram for prediction of mortality in those patients.MethodsWe performed a retrospective, observational, cohort study in the intensive care unit (ICU) of West China Hospital, Sichuan University with all consecutive SCAP patients with COPD between December 2011 and December 2018. The clinical data within 24 h of admission to ICU were collected. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. We divided the patients into training and testing cohorts (70% versus 30%) randomly. In the training cohort, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify independent risk factors applied to develop a nomogram. The prediction model was assessed in both training and testing cohorts.ResultsFinally, 873 SCAP patients with COPD were included, among which the hospital mortality was 41.4%. In training cohort, the independent risk factors for hospital mortality were increased age, diabetes, chronic renal diseases, decreased systolic blood pressure (SBP), and elevated fibrinogen, interleukin 6 (IL-6) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). The C index was 0.840 (95% CI 0.809–0.872) in training cohort and 0.830 (95% CI 0.781–0.878) in testing cohort. Furthermore, the time-dependent AUC, calibration plots, DCA and clinical impact curves indicated the model had good predictive performance. Significant association of risk stratification based on nomogram with mortality was also found (P for trend < 0.001). The restricted cubic splines suggested that estimated associations between these predictors and hospital mortality were all linear relationships.ConclusionWe developed a prediction model including seven risk factors for hospital mortality in patients with SCAP and COPD. It can be used for early risk stratification in clinical practice after more external validation.

Risk factors for hospital mortality in children with congenital heart defects

В статье выделены факторы, определяющие высокий риск смерти детей с ВПС. Сердечная недостаточность с последующим развитием полиорганной недостаточности явилась наиболее частой причиной тяжелого клинического состояния и летального исхода у больных с врожденным пороком сердца.

Association between levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone and prognosis of patients admitted to intensive care units: an analysis using the MIMIC-III

To explore the association between levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) on admission and prognosis of patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU). The data were collected from patients who were admitted to the ICU of the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in the United States from 2001 to 2012 with available TSH test records within 24 hours after the ICU admission via the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III v1.4 (MIMIC-III v1.4). Information including gender, age, ethnicity, type of admission, mechanical ventilation (MV) or renal replacement therapy (RRT) received on admission, comorbidities, and TSH test records within 24 hours after the ICU admission were collected. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II) and the comorbidities index Elixhauser (SID30) score were calculated according to the parameters. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. Differences in baseline characteristics and prognosis were examined between patients with normal TSH levels and abnormal TSH levels which was determined according to a dichotomous variable provided by the data. Multivariable Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between TSH levels and prognosis after adjusting for confounding factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted which categorized the study population as three groups (i.e., decreased, normal, and elevated TSH levels) using the range of 0.30-3.00 mU/L as the normal range of TSH. A total of 3 425 ICU patients were enrolled in the study, of which 2 692 (78.60%) were with normal TSH and 733 (21.40%) were with abnormal TSH. There was no statistically significant difference in gender, age, ethnicity, type of admission and the ratio of MV between the normal TSH and abnormal TSH groups. Compared with normal TSH group, the patients in abnormal TSH had a higher SOFA, SAPS II and SID30 scores as well as the ratio of RRT [SOFA score: 4 (2, 7) vs. 4 (2, 6), SAPS II score: 38.02±13.76 vs. 36.53±13.75, SID30 score: 11 (4, 22) vs. 11 (0, 20), RRT ratio: 5.32% (39/733) vs. 3.49% (94/2 692), all P < 0.05]. The hospital mortality of patients in normal TSH was significantly higher than that of those in abnormal TSH [9.82% (72/733) vs. 5.94% (160/2 692), P < 0.01]. After adjusting for confounding factors, abnormal TSH was significantly associated with hospital mortality [odds ratio (OR) = 1.71, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.24-2.35, P = 0.001]. In the sensitivity analysis in which the range of 0.30-3.00 mU/L was used as the normal range of TSH, compared with normal TSH, decreased TSH (OR = 2.36, 95%CI was 1.40-3.97, P = 0.001) and elevated TSH (OR = 1.44, 95%CI was 1.05-1.98, P = 0.023) were both significantly associated with increased hospital mortality. An abnormal level of TSH within 24 hours after admitted to ICU is an independent risk factor for hospital mortality among ICU patients.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors associated with mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia and type 2 diabetes mellitus

BackgroundThe present study was performed to investigate the impacts of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) and to develop a novel prediction model for mortality in SCAP patients with T2DM.MethodsThis was a retrospective observational study conducted in consecutive adult patients with SCAP admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of West China Hospital, Sichuan University, China, between September 2011 and September 2019. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. A propensity score matching (PSM) analysis model with a 1:2 ratio was used for the comparisons of clinical characteristics and outcomes between T2DM and nondiabetic patients. The independent risk factors were identified via univariate and then multivariable logistic regression analysis and were then used to establish a nomogram.ResultsIn total, 1262 SCAP patients with T2DM and 2524 matched patients without T2DM were included after PSM. Patients with T2DM had longer ICU length of stay (LOS) (13 vs. 12 days, P = 0.016) and higher 14-day mortality (15% vs. 10.8%, P < 0.001), 30-day mortality (25.7% vs. 22.7%, P = 0.046), ICU mortality (30.8% vs. 26.5%, P = 0.005), and hospital mortality (35.2% vs. 31.0%, P = 0.009) than those without T2DM. In SCAP patients with T2DM, the independent risk factors for hospital mortality were increased numbers of comorbidities and diabetes-related complications; elevated C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and blood lactate; as well as decreased blood pressure on admission. The nomogram had a C index of 0.907 (95% CI: 0.888, 0.927) in the training set and 0.873 (95% CI: 0.836, 0.911) in the testing set, which was superior to the pneumonia severity index (PSI, AUC: 0.809, 95% CI: 0.785, 0.833). The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) also demonstrated its accuracy and applicability.ConclusionsSCAP patients with T2DM had worse clinical outcomes than nondiabetic patients. The nomogram has good predictive performance for hospital mortality and might be generally applied after more external validations.

Preoperative Liver Function Test Abnormalities Were Associated With Short-Term and Long-Term Prognosis in Cardiac Surgery Patients Without Liver Disease.

Aims: To explore the value of preoperative liver function tests (LFTs) for the prognosis of cardiac surgery patients without liver disease.Methods: The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database was used to extract the clinical data. Adult cardiac patients (≥18 years) without liver disease in the database were enrolled. The association of LFTs with the time of hospital stay and ICU stay was analyzed with the Spearman correlation. Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify LFTs that were independent prognostic factors of mortality.Results: A total of 2,565 patients were enrolled in this study. Albumin (ALB) was negatively associated with the time of hospital stay and ICU stay, while alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and total bilirubin were positively associated with the time of hospital stay and ICU stay (all p < 0.001). Abnormal ALB, ALT, AST, and total bilirubin were associated with lower 90-day and 4-year survival (all p < 0.001) and could be used as independent risk factors for hospital mortality and 90-day mortality. However, only ALB and total bilirubin were independent risk factors for 4-year mortality.Conclusion: Preoperative LFT abnormalities were associated with short-term and long-term prognosis of cardiac surgery patients without liver disease.

Predictors of Mortality, Withdrawal of Life-Sustaining Measures, and Discharge Disposition in Octogenarians with Subdural Hematomas

Risk factors for mortality in patients with subdural hematoma (SDH) include poor Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, pupil nonreactivity, and hemodynamic instability on presentation. Little is published regarding prognosticators of SDH in the elderly. This study aims to examine risk factors for hospital mortality and withdrawal of life-sustaining measures in an octogenarian population presenting with SDH. A prospectively collected multicenter database of 3279 traumatic brain injury admissions to 45 different U.S. trauma centers between 2017 and 2019 was queried to identify patients aged >79 years old presenting with SDH. Factors collected included baseline demographic data, past medical history, antiplatelet/anticoagulant use, and clinical presentation (GCS, pupil reactivity, injury severity scale [ISS]). Primary outcome data included hospital mortality/discharge to hospice care and withdrawal of life-sustaining measures. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors independently associated with primary outcome variables. A total of 695 patients were isolated for analysis. Of the total cohort, the rate of hospital mortality or discharge to hospice care was 22% (n= 150) and the rate of withdrawal of life-sustaining measures was 10% (n=66). A multivariate logistic regression model identified GCS <13, pupil nonreactivity, increasing ISS, intraventricular hemorrhage, and neurosurgical intervention as factors independently associated with hospital mortality/hospice. Congestive heart failure (CHF), hypotension, GCS <13, and neurosurgical intervention were independently associated with withdrawal of life-sustaining measures. Poor GCS, pupil nonreactivity, ISS, and intraventricular hemorrhage are independently associated with hospital mortality or discharge to hospice care in patients >80 years with SDH. Pre-existing CHF may further predict withdrawal of life-sustaining measures.