Climate Change Risk Assessment Research Articles

Media exposure to climate change information and pro-environmental behavior: the role of climate change risk judgment

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to examine the relationships between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media, cognitive and emotional aspects of climate change risk judgment, and pro-environmental behavior (PEB).MethodA cross-sectional online study was conducted on a quota sample of 1,075 participants (51.9% women) aged 18–79 years. Participants self-reported their exposure to climate change-related information in traditional (e.g. television) and modern media (e.g. social networks), cognitive assessment of climate change risk, level of worry about climate change, and the frequency of PEB.ResultsStructural equation modeling showed a good fit for the parallel mediation model, involving cognitive risk judgment and worry as mediators between exposure to climate change information in traditional and modern media and PEB. Exposure to climate change information in traditional media had indirect effect on PEB through heightened worry, but not cognitive risk judgment. In contrast, exposure to climate change information in modern media had no indirect effect on PEB.ConclusionSince the link between exposure to climate change information in traditional media and PEB has been shown to be mediated by climate change worry, it is important to enhance the coverage of climate change in traditional media in Croatia, taking care to offer solutions to reduce possible negative impact on people’s well-being.

Assessment of Climate Change Risk on Insurance Portfolios

Purpose: The general purpose of this study was to investigate the assessment of climate change risk on insurance portfolios.
 Methodology: The study adopted a desktop research methodology. Desk research refers to secondary data or that which can be collected without fieldwork. Desk research is basically involved in collecting data from existing resources hence it is often considered a low cost technique as compared to field research, as the main cost is involved in executive’s time, telephone charges and directories. Thus, the study relied on already published studies, reports and statistics. This secondary data was easily accessed through the online journals and library.
 Findings: The findings reveal that there exists a contextual and methodological gap relating to climate change risk on insurance portfolios. The assessment of climate change risk on insurance portfolios reveals the significant challenges posed by increasingly frequent and severe climate-related events, impacting insurers' financial stability and policyholders' security. Key conclusions emphasize the imperative for insurers to enhance climate risk modeling, integrate climate considerations into decision-making processes, and foster collaboration with stakeholders to develop effective risk management solutions. Proactive measures are essential to address the systemic nature of climate risks, underscoring the urgency of collective action and innovation to build resilience and sustainability in insurance portfolios and broader society amidst a changing climate.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The Prospect theory, Agency theory and the Resilience theory may be used to anchor future studies relating to climate change risk on insurance portfolios. Insurers are advised to invest in advanced risk modeling, diversify risk exposure across regions and lines of business, integrate climate risk into underwriting and pricing, strengthen regulatory oversight, collaborate with stakeholders, and invest in climate adaptation and mitigation measures. These recommendations aim to improve insurers' ability to quantify and manage climate-related risks effectively, promote sustainability, and contribute to broader resilience-building efforts in the face of climate change.
 Keywords: Climate Change Risk, Insurance Portfolios, Resilience, Risk Modeling, Diversification, Underwriting, Regulatory Oversight, Collaboration

Spatiotemporal characteristics of the time of emergence for anthropogenic tropospheric temperature changes based on the CMIP6 multi-model results

In the 20th century, with the intensification of human activities, the Earth is experiencing unprecedented warming. However, there are certain differences in the sensitivity of temperature changes to anthropogenic forcings in different regions and at different altitudes of the troposphere. The time of emergence (TOE) is the key point at which the anthropogenic climate change signal exceeds from the internal climate variability serving as a noise. It is a crucial variable for climate change detection, climate prediction and risk assessment. Here, we systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the TOE of temperature changes over the past century by calculating the SNR based on the selected CMIP6 multi-model outputs. The results show that the temperature TOE, particularly in the lower and middle troposphere, shows distinct latitude dependence, displaying an ‘M-type’ distribution from the Antarctic to the Arctic: it first appears in low-latitudes, followed by high-latitudes, and last appears in the two mid latitude bands. For the tropics, the TOE of tropospheric temperatures becomes earlier with increasing altitude: the TOE of air temperatures at the surface, mid-tropospheric 500 hPa and upper-tropospheric 200 hPa occurs in 1980 ± 15, 1965 ± 20, and 1930 ± 30, respectively. The TOEs of tropospheric temperatures in eastern equatorial Pacific are 10–30 years later than those in the western equatorial Pacific. For the regional TOEs of surface air temperature diverse differences exist on land and ocean in various latitudes of two hemispheres.

Impacts and Risk Assessments of Climate Change for the Yields of the Major Grain Crops in China, Japan, and Korea.

Climate change poses a high risk to grain yields. Maize, rice, and wheat are the three major grain crops in China, Japan, and Korea. Assessing the impacts and risks of climate on the yields of these grain cops is crucial. An economy-climate model (C-D-C model) was established to assess the impacts of climate factors on the grain yields in different crop areas. The peaks over threshold model based on the generalized Pareto distribution was used to calculate the value at risk and the expected shortfall, which can evaluate the yield risk of different crops. The impact ratio of climate change was employed to estimate the impacts of climate change under different climate scenarios. The main conclusions can be summarized as follows: the impacts of climate factors on grain yields and the risk vary widely across the different regions and crops. Compared to 1991-2020, climate change from 2021 to 2050 exerts positive impacts on rice and wheat, while the negative impacts on maize in the crop areas are significantly affected by climate factors. The impact ratios of climate change are larger in the SSP1-2.6 and the SSP5-8.5 scenarios than under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. These findings are useful for targeting grain yields in smaller study areas.

The need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios.

Climate change risk assessment studies focus on identifying and analyzing different risks considering several climate change scenarios and on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation measures. However, risk acceptability is often not reflected on in the context of climate change risk studies. Noting that the different climate change scenarios depict drastically contrasting images of the future in terms of population growth, economic development, and changes to life expectancy, this article uses risk acceptance criteria that are based on socioeconomic considerations to highlight the need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the optimum implied cost of averting a fatality derived based on the life quality index concept and the value of a quality-adjusted life year derived based on the time principle of acceptable life risk are assessed in three different climate change scenarios for Sweden. Additionally, an illustrative example that assesses the acceptable probability of failure of a steel rod under axial tension in the different climate change scenarios is presented. It is shown that risk acceptance criteria can vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios (e.g., more than 190% variation in the acceptable probability of failure for Sweden in the considered example). This article demonstrates that the ability of societies to afford risk-reducing measures may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Hence, it can be concluded that (1) in the context of climate change risk assessments, risk acceptance criteria need to be developed to account for the different climate change scenarios, and (2) these criteria may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Finally, relevant challenges and research needs are also provided.

Proposed Methodology for Climate Change Adaptation of Water Infrastructures in the Mediterranean Region

Water Infrastructure (WI) is one of the most important sectors of Critical Infrastructure (CI); it encompasses drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater. The WI is vulnerable to the effects of Climate Change (CC) that can disrupt its functionality; thus, it needs to be adapted to CC, especially in the Mediterranean region, where these effects are expected to intensify during the twenty-first century. For this adaptation a Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) is required in the development of WI to identify the important climate hazards and to recommend the required measures for the adaptation of the WI to these hazards. In the present work, a CRVA methodology is developed and presented based on a literature survey and the relevant European Commission guidelines; it is structured around five key steps: (1) Description of the WI, (2) Climate change assessment, (3) Vulnerability assessment, (4) Risk assessment, and (5) Assessment of adaptation measures. The application of the methodology is illustrated indicatively to a wastewater system in Greece for which preliminary estimations are performed, results are discussed, and conclusions are drawn. The proposed methodology can be modified for application to other sectors of CI; moreover, is a valuable resource in academic curricula and ongoing research initiatives.

Translating climate risk assessments into more effective adaptation decision-making: The importance of social and political aspects of place-based climate risk

Climate risk continues to be framed ostensibly in terms of physical, socio-economic and/or ecological risks, as evidenced in the 2012 and 2017 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) evidence reports. This article argues that framing climate risk in this way remains problematic for the science-policy process, particularly in ensuring adequate climate risk assessment information translates into more effective adaptation decision-making. We argue how climate risk assessments need to further consider the social and political aspects of place-based climate risk to ensure more effective adaptation policy outcomes. Using a discourse analysis of the CCRA3 Technical Report methods chapter published in June 2021, we discuss three critical themes around how climate risk is currently framed within the Technical Report methods chapter. These are (i) the over-reliance on reductive methodological framing of assessing climate risk through ‘urgency scores’; (ii) the idea of what constitutes ‘opportunity’; and (iii) the framing of transformational adaptation discourses through the lens of climate risk. To conclude, we suggest that to move beyond assessing risk solely in terms of biophysical and socio-economic risk, a greater emphasis on the social and political contexts of ‘place-based’ risk needs to be central to climate change risk assessments.

Climate change, society, and pandemic disease in Roman Italy between 200 BCE and 600 CE.

Records of past societies confronted with natural climate change can illuminate social responses to environmental stress and environment-disease connections, especially when locally constrained high-temporal resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are available. We present a temperature and precipitation reconstruction for ~200 BCE to ~600 CE, from a southern Italian marine sedimentary archive-the first high-resolution (~3 years) climate record from the heartland of the Roman Empire, stretching from the so-called Roman Climate Optimum to the Late Antique Little Ice Age. We document phases of instability and cooling from ~100 CE onward but more notably after ~130 CE. Pronounced cold phases between ~160 to 180 CE, ~245 to 275 CE, and after ~530 CE associate with pandemic disease, suggesting that climate stress interacted with social and biological variables. The importance of environment-disease dynamics in past civilizations underscores the need to incorporate health in risk assessments of climate change.

Assessment of observed temperature trend patterns of Bhubaneswar city, India with special prominence on future projections using SimCLIM climate model and farmer’s perception

<p>Temperature dynamics is a widely recognized indicator of the global warming phenomenon. Changes in temperature patterns in Bhubaneswar, India, were assessed by examining the monthly minimum and maximum temperature data for 60 years (1956–2015) sourced from the Indian Meteorological Department. SimCLIM climate change risk assessment software was used for projecting the temperature regime for four different representative concentration pathways. Further, a survey of 112 farmers was conducted to understand their perceptions of temperature variations in and around Bhubaneswar city using a multi-stage sampling technique. Mann–Kendall statistics and linear regression were used to analyze the monthly temperature data and trend detection. The study reveals a change of +4%,-4.44%, and +1.09% in the mean monthly maximum, minimum, and annual temperature. The results of the future projection show a temperature change of 0.81°C for RCP 2.6, 1.12°C for RCP 4.5, 1.03°C for RCP 6.0, and 1.54°C for RCP 8.5 for the year 2050. Confirming the analysis findings, most of the interviewed farmers also perceived increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation in and around the city. The study outcome of temperature trend analysis and future projections will be helpful for farmers and policymakers in formulating adaptation strategies to climate change.</p>

Thermal Threats to Freshwater Mussels: An Empirical Stream Assessment

Freshwater mussels fulfill an important ecological role in aquatic ecosystems, but they currently face many threats, including thermal regime alteration. Thermal transformation of the aquatic environment is associated with climate change, land use alteration, and other pervasive anthropogenic global changes. To enhance our understanding of ecological thermal impacts, we combined extensive field measurements of temperature in the stream water column and substrate depths (5 and 15 cm) at sites where mussels occur, measures of abundance and species richness for mussels and fish, and thermal tolerance knowledge for mussels and fish to generate a comprehensive assessment of the potential threats mussels face as temperatures continue to rise as a result of global change. Mean summer (June–August 2010–2012) temperatures at mussel-occupied sites in the upper Tar River basin of North Carolina, USA, ranged from 16.2 to 34.7 °C. The mean temperature from the hottest 96 h at each site ranged from 23.5 to 31.5 °C. At 80% of sites, a period of moderate drought coincided with the hottest 96 h period. Temperature threshold exceedance durations indicated that chronic, combined chronic/acute, and acute freshwater mussel thermal tolerance thresholds (i.e., 28 °C, 30 °C, and 33 °C, respectively) based on laboratory exposures of glochidia (larvae) and juveniles were commonly exceeded. Water temperatures exceeded 28 °C for at least 24 h at 55% of sites and for at least 96 h at 35% of sites, and they exceeded 30 °C for at least 24 h at 15% of sites. We quantified a thermal buffering effect of the substrate that may be protective of mussels. There was a mean difference of 0.5 °C between the water column and the upper substrate (5 cm) and a mean difference of 0.9 °C between the water column and the lower substrate (15 cm). Maximum differences of up to 5.5 °C between the water column and the upper substrate and 11.5 °C between the water column and the lower substrate were observed. Our models estimating the relation between the water column and substrate temperatures more realistically characterize ambient temperature exposures and have widespread implications for mussel conservation and climate change risk assessment in similar streams. Freshwater mussels currently exist on the edge of their thermal limits, but their abundance and species richness cannot be explained by temperature patterns alone. Fish species richness was related to the thermal regime, indicating that species interactions may be an important driver of freshwater mussel responses to global change.

Climate Change Risk Assessment of Rainfall and Temperature in the West Bank, Palestine

Climate Change Risk Assessment of Rainfall and Temperature in the West Bank, Palestine

Climate change risk assessment of rainfall and temperature in the West Bank, Palestine

Climate change risk assessment of rainfall and temperature in the West Bank, Palestine

Trends of High and Low Values of Annual and Seasonal Precipitation in Turkey

The exploration of precipitation data trends using innovative analysis methods is anticipated to offer significant contributions to sustainability across various domains, including water resources management, agricultural planning, climate change understanding, environmental protection, risk assessment, and preparedness. This study employs an improved visualization of the innovative trend analysis (IV-ITA) method for detecting annual and seasonal trends in precipitation variables across 194 stations in Turkey over the period 1969–2020. The outcomes derived from the IV-ITA method were further juxtaposed with the results obtained from the classical Mann–Kendall (MK) test. Using the MK test, statistically significant increasing trends were detected in the annual pattern along the northern coasts of Turkey. Based on the results obtained from the IV-ITA, substantial decreasing trends were identified in the basins within the Southeastern Anatolia Region of Turkey. Conversely, an increasing trend was observed in the basins situated in the northwest. It was also established that an increasing trend was observed throughout Turkey, except for some stations in the low-data group. The most significant increasing trend was noted in the basins along the southern coastline, characterized by the prevalence of the Mediterranean climate. In the high-data group, an increase of up to 50% was noted along the southwest coast. Upon comparing the outcomes derived from the IV-ITA method with those obtained using the MK test, it becomes apparent that the IV-ITA yields significantly more detailed results than the MK test. Additionally, applying the IV-ITA method in climate-sensitive regions and basins is envisioned to enhance the accuracy of assessments, foster a sustainable environment, and improve the effective management of water resources.

A co-produced national climate change risk and vulnerability assessment framework for South Africa

IntroductionThere are mounting demands to undertake climate risk and vulnerability (CRV) assessments for policy, planning, funding, insurance, and compliance reasons. In Africa, given the adaptation imperative, this is particularly important. Increasingly, it has become clear that sub-national assessments are needed to inform adaptation practice. However, there has been relatively little guidance on how to undertake these more local assessments and aggregate them making it difficult for national governments to know the extent and variability of climate vulnerability and risk across the country.MethodsIn South Africa, the national government, led by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE), undertook to establish a common framework to guide the development and review of CRV assessments. This paper presents the framework that was co-developed through a series of engagements with stakeholders active in implementing and supporting CRV assessments.ResultsThe framework is intended to provide guidance on what to consider when undertaking CRV assessments within diverse South African contexts in order to enable alignment, comparison, and aggregation between them and work towards an effective climate adaptation response across scales. Rather than standardizing a methodology, the framework promotes the use of a standard set of concepts as the basis for each assessment and profiles a diversity of methods, tools and data sources for applying the concepts in a contextually sensitive way. This provides a flexible yet structured sequence of three interlinked steps in a risk and vulnerability assessment process, namely: (1) Planning, (2) Scoping and (3) Assessing. The framework guides users through the choice and application of three assessment depths, depending on decision-context, resourcing and extent of pre-existing data and information. It encourages the integration of participatory and indicator-based methods through an impact chain approach, profiling more than 30 freely available tools and resources. This process builds a strong evidence base and a deepening set of engagements and shared understanding between relevant stakeholders, upon which to act.DiscussionThis South African process can provide insight and support for actors driving the climate agenda in other countries looking to develop comparable assessments as the basis to drive equitable and transformative climate action and learning.

Translation of international frameworks and national policies on climate change, land degradation, and biodiversity to develop integrated risk assessment for watershed management in Indonesia

The international conventions on environments, i.e., biodiversity (United Nations Convention on Biodiversity - UNCBD), land degradation (United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification - UNCCD), and climate change (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - UNFCCC) stipulates country-level policies, programs, and actions in sustaining environmental well-being. This study attempts to connect the three conventions ratified into national regulations in Indonesia. The connection is framed to develop indicators and their attributes for measuring health or risk levels of watershed functions and services to the present challenges. The risk assessment is formulated based on a set of risk components and indicators developed with referring to Ministry of Forestry Regulation No. 60/2014 about the classification of watershed health conditions, Ministry of Forestry Regulation No. 29/2009 about biodiversity, and Ministry of Environment and Forestry Regulation No. 7/2018 about climate change risk assessment. The formulation grouped the risk indicators into biophysical, socio-economic, and governance. The risk assessment is applied to the Way Khilau watershed of Lampung, Indonesia, to measure the risk levels and identify the contributing indicators that should be considered for designing adaptation options. Under the current conditions, the Way Khilau watershed has a score of about 123.25 or 0.77, which will be exacerbated by future climate change. The risk level can reach a score of 138 or 0.89, nearly approaching the upper threshold. This risk level urges the policymakers and stakeholders to take adaptation actions to maintain the functions and services of the Why Khilau watershed.

Climate change risk and adaptation for fisher communities in Ghana

Artisanal fisheries in Ghana account for more than two-thirds of the country’s food fish production and employ or support up to 2 million people. However, many fish stocks are close to collapse through overexploitation, especially stocks such as sardinella that are a staple food for Ghanaians. Climate change is expected to affect the fish themselves as well as fishing activities, increasing the already high risk to fishers’ livelihoods and Ghana’s food security. Here, we use a climate change risk assessment framework to assess vulnerability of Ghanaian fisheries, considering climate hazards, fish species sensitivity and socio-economic vulnerability of different fisheries sectors and regions. The results show that some of the species that constitute the highest catches in Ghana are highly sensitive to climate change, such as snappers, Congo dentex and groupers. Some species assessed as having low sensitivity to climate change in the region are migratory pelagic fish, including tuna. Species caught by artisanal fleets are typically more sensitive than those captured by semi-industrial and industrial fleets. Regionally, the highest climate risk is found for Volta in the east, and the lowest for the Greater Accra region, along the central part of the coastline. This information can be used to identify, with stakeholders, the climate adaptation actions that are most suitable for the different regions and fisheries sectors. Actions can be tailored to the different aspects of climate risk, helping the country to achieve its aims of restoring fish stocks, safeguarding livelihoods and improving climate resilience for Ghana’s artisanal fishers.

Global climate change and risk analysis of tourist destinations in the regions of Georgia

Tourism is considered the largest industry in the world, and the environment is central to its development. Climate change has a significant impact on tourism destinations. The relevance, methodological and practical importance of the problems posed in the article, the presence of unresolved issues led to the selection of the research topic, the determination of the research goal and tasks. The subject of our research is climate change risk assessment on the tourist regions of Georgia. The environment is the basis of the tourist product, therefore the profitability of tourism depends on the attractiveness of tourist destinations. Due to the close relationship between environment and climate, tourism is considered a climate-sensitive economic sector. Climate change is likely to lead to a shift in destination. There is a need to reduce the risks from the impacts already caused by climate change.

Improving stakeholder engagement in climate change risk assessments: insights from six co-production initiatives in Europe

It is increasingly recognized that effective climate risk assessments benefit from well-crafted processes of knowledge co-production involving key stakeholders and scientists. To support the co-production of actionable knowledge on climate change, a careful design and planning process is often called for to ensure that relevant perspectives are integrated and to promote shared understandings and joint ownership of the research process. In this article, we aim to further refine methods for co-producing climate services to support risk-informed decision-support and adaptation action. By drawing on insights and lessons learned from participatory processes in six case studies in Northern and Central Europe, we seek to better understand how associated challenges and opportunities arising in co-production processes play out in different case-specific contexts. All cases have applied a standardized framework for climate vulnerability and risk assessment, the impact chain method. The analysis builds on multiple methods including a survey among case study researchers and stakeholders, interviews with researchers, as well as a project workshop to develop collective insights and synthesize results. The results illustrate case studies' different approaches to stakeholder involvement as well as the outputs, outcomes, and impacts resulting from the risk assessments. Examples include early indications of mutual learning and improved understanding of climate risks, impacts and vulnerability, and local and regional decision contexts, as well as actual uptake in planning and decision contexts. Other outcomes concern scientific progress and contribution to methodological innovations. Overall, our study offers insights into the value of adopting good practices in knowledge co-production in impact chain-based climate risk assessments, with wider lessons for the climate services domain. While collaborations and interactions have contributed to a number of benefits some practical challenges remain for achieving effective co-production processes in the context of climate change and adaptation. To overcome these challenges, we propose a carefully designed but flexible and iterative participatory approach that enables joint learning; reassessment of stakeholder needs and capacities; and co-produced, actionable climate services with the potential to catalyze climate action.

An evaluation framework for downscaling and bias correction in climate change impact studies

Climate change impact studies commonly use impact models (such as hydrological or crop models) forced with corrected climate input data from global climate models. A range of downscaling and bias correction methods have been developed to increase the spatial resolution and remove systematic biases in climate model outputs to be applied before use in impact models. Many studies have focused on evaluating such approaches for the climate variables they aim to correct. However, due to nonlinear error propagation there can be large remaining biases in model outputs, even when ingesting bias corrected climate forcings.Here we propose an impact-centric evaluation framework for downscaling and bias correction methods to be used in climate change risk assessments. This framework evaluates and compares the strengths and limitations of downscaling and bias correction in the impact domain, highlighting approaches that lead to reduced biases in impact variables of interest. We demonstrate the evaluation framework in the context of assessing downscaling and bias correction methods for hydrological projections in Australia. Our results show that although all downscaling and bias correction methods evaluated perform adequately for the input climate variables, their errors vary markedly when the impact is modelled. Our proposed evaluation framework involves selecting a number of key performance metrics, and ranking the four downscaling and bias correction methods to compute an overall ranking, highlighting the best-performing methods for each statistical metric and the overall best-performing approach. We present an application of this approach using performance metrics relevant to hydrological applications, relating to mean biases, variability, heavy precipitation and peak runoff days, and dry conditions.For impact studies related to hydrological applications, we find that multi-variate bias correction that considers cross-correlations, temporal auto-correlations and biases at multiple time scales (daily to annual) performs best in reducing biases in hydrological output variables for Australia. Our proposed evaluation approach can be applied to a wide range of climate change applications where downscaling and bias correction are required, including impacts on agricultural production, wildfires, energy generation, human health, ecosystem functioning, and water resource management.

Climate change risk assessment for ski areas in China

The successful bid for the 2022 Winter Olympics has provided a strong impetus for the development of China's ski industry. Ski areas have sprung up throughout the country, even in the low latitudes south of 30°N. However, ski tourism is extremely susceptible to weather and climate conditions. In the context of global warming, it has become important to assess the climate reliability of ski areas. Therefore, this study demonstrates a novel approach to assessing the ski tourism sector's climate risks, which can be easily applied in other markets catering to the same industry. Using the random forest regression model based on climate projections and survey data, we projected the ski season start dates, end dates and season lengths of 694 existing ski areas in China under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Climate projections, including air temperature, snowfall, rainfall, wind speed and air humidity, were the ensemble means from five climate models. Results indicate that ski areas in China may have later start dates, earlier end dates and shorter ski seasons before 2099. By the 2090s, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 20% (139), 28% (195) and 35% (245) of ski areas are projected to be at high climate risk (ski season less than 60 d), respectively, while 28% (197), 23% (157) and 8% (56) of ski areas are at low climate risk (ski season with at least 100 d), respectively. The climate risks are ranked from the highest to lowest in East, Central, Southwest, North, Northwest and Northeast China. Furthermore, the ski tourism sector in the latitudes south of 40°N is exposed to much higher climate risks than in areas north of 40°N. Therefore, climatic reliability should be carefully considered before establishing or expanding ski areas to avoid unnecessary resource waste and ecological damage, as well as to promote sustainable development in mountain areas.