An evaluation framework for downscaling and bias correction in climate change impact studies

Abstract

Climate change impact studies commonly use impact models (such as hydrological or crop models) forced with corrected climate input data from global climate models. A range of downscaling and bias correction methods have been developed to increase the spatial resolution and remove systematic biases in climate model outputs to be applied before use in impact models. Many studies have focused on evaluating such approaches for the climate variables they aim to correct. However, due to nonlinear error propagation there can be large remaining biases in model outputs, even when ingesting bias corrected climate forcings.Here we propose an impact-centric evaluation framework for downscaling and bias correction methods to be used in climate change risk assessments. This framework evaluates and compares the strengths and limitations of downscaling and bias correction in the impact domain, highlighting approaches that lead to reduced biases in impact variables of interest. We demonstrate the evaluation framework in the context of assessing downscaling and bias correction methods for hydrological projections in Australia. Our results show that although all downscaling and bias correction methods evaluated perform adequately for the input climate variables, their errors vary markedly when the impact is modelled. Our proposed evaluation framework involves selecting a number of key performance metrics, and ranking the four downscaling and bias correction methods to compute an overall ranking, highlighting the best-performing methods for each statistical metric and the overall best-performing approach. We present an application of this approach using performance metrics relevant to hydrological applications, relating to mean biases, variability, heavy precipitation and peak runoff days, and dry conditions.For impact studies related to hydrological applications, we find that multi-variate bias correction that considers cross-correlations, temporal auto-correlations and biases at multiple time scales (daily to annual) performs best in reducing biases in hydrological output variables for Australia. Our proposed evaluation approach can be applied to a wide range of climate change applications where downscaling and bias correction are required, including impacts on agricultural production, wildfires, energy generation, human health, ecosystem functioning, and water resource management.