Risk Assessment Technology Research Articles

Individual risk assessment and information technology to optimise screening frequency for diabetic retinopathy by Aspelund et al. (2011) Diabetologia 54:2525–2532

Individual risk assessment and information technology to optimise screening frequency for diabetic retinopathy by Aspelund et al. (2011) Diabetologia 54:2525–2532

Second malignant neoplasms and cardiovascular disease following radiotherapy.

Second malignant neoplasms (SMNs) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) are among the most serious and life-threatening late adverse effects experienced by the growing number of cancer survivors worldwide and are due in part to radiotherapy. The National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) convened an expert scientific committee to critically and comprehensively review associations between radiotherapy and SMNs and CVD, taking into account radiobiology; genomics; treatment (ie, radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy and other therapies); type of radiation; and quantitative considerations (ie, dose-response relationships). Major conclusions of the NCRP include: 1) the relevance of older technologies for current risk assessment when organ-specific absorbed dose and the appropriate relative biological effectiveness are taken into account and 2) the identification of critical research needs with regard to newer radiation modalities, dose-response relationships, and genetic susceptibility. Recommendation for research priorities and infrastructural requirements include 1) long-term large-scale follow-up of extant cancer survivors and prospectively treated patients to characterize risks of SMNs and CVD in terms of radiation dose and type; 2) biological sample collection to integrate epidemiological studies with molecular and genetic evaluations; 3) investigation of interactions between radiotherapy and other potential confounding factors, such as age, sex, race, tobacco and alcohol use, dietary intake, energy balance, and other cofactors, as well as genetic susceptibility; 4) focusing on adolescent and young adult cancer survivors, given the sparse research in this population; and 5) construction of comprehensive risk prediction models for SMNs and CVD to permit the development of follow-up guidelines and prevention and intervention strategies.

High-energy liquid jet technology — risk assessment in practice

The contribution deals with a risk assessment in practical applications of the high-energy liquid jet technology from the point of view of the risk identification, estimation and evaluation. Differences between three different types of workplaces are highlighted and analysed - the indoor, the outdoor and the research ones. Theoretical analyses are supported by particular application of the method for the risk assessment in the Laboratory of Liquid Jets at the VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava. This laboratory is primarily oriented to research. Nevertheless, the conclusions can be used also for predominantly commercial workplaces. Some new considerations and evaluations concerning health and safety are presented. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) procedures were applied and their limitations in risk assessment of water jet-based technologies are explained.

Risk assessment of hybrid manufacturing technologies for ramp-up projects

Hybrid manufacturing technologies often provide a high potential for innovation and are not widely used in industries. Therefore the ramp-up of hybrid manufacturing technologies is a special challenge. The aim of this article is to show how hybrid manufacturing technologies can be found and evaluated. In the first part a method to identify hybrid manufacturing technology concepts for the supplementation of conventional technologies is introduced. The second part presents an evaluation of these new technologies in the context of production ramp-up projects. Thus, the optimal hybrid manufacturing technology can be chosen during the production process planning of new products.

Research on Differentiated Lightning Protection Comprehensive Management for the 500-kV Power Network in the Area Near the Three Gorges Project

For the serious problem on lightning disaster risk of the Three Gorges outgoing lines, new technology, which is based on risk assessment, has been proposed for the lightning disaster defense for transmission lines. In order to realize lightning disaster risk assessment and defense technology, the procedure consists of analysis on lightning activity characteristics, lightning failures replay analysis, lightning disaster risk assessment, establishment and implement of lightning protection improvement, and practical defense effect assessment of lightning protection improvement. Implied on the lightning disaster defense for the Three Gorges outgoing lines, this technology has been verified with positive results. The widespread use of this technology would provide technical support for the differentiation design and improvement of lightning protection for transmission lines and for realizing the meticulous lightning protection in the management of transmission lines.

Beyond beliefs: risk assessment technologies shaping patients’ experiences of heart disease prevention

Social science research on lifestyle-related diseases typically focuses on patients' understandings and beliefs and takes the clinical risk for granted. We interviewed 30 healthy UK patients at high risk of heart disease, recruited from a family history trial at 2 weeks and 6 months after a discussion with a clinician about their risk, lifestyle and medications. The participants took four different paths: (i) pharmaceutical (most common, risk reduction with cholesterol lowering statins), (ii) mixed (statins and behaviour change), (iii) behavioural (behaviour change, focus on wellbeing) and (iv) 'lost' (no prevention, difficult social/personal circumstances). Drawing on Berg we argue that coronary heart disease (CHD) risk assessment technologies are formal tools that generate, rather than represent, high risk in a way that patients often experience lifestyle change as futile, because it rarely reduces their cholesterol to targets defined by the tools. We suggest social scientists studying incipient or 'proto-diseases', such as CHD risk, should not only focus on understandings but also investigate the technologies (and the associated guidelines, policies, clinical practice and pharmaceutical industry operations) that generate incipient diseases and patients' experiences of them. However, technologies do not determine experience and we also discuss elements that direct patients down other than the pharmaceutical path.

Special Issue on Managing Catastrophic Technological Risks and Role of Technology Assessment (TA) in the Post 3/11 Society

The nuclear accident at Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCo)’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant on March 11, 2011, triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent Tsunami, is probably the worst “catastrophic technological risk” ever experienced by Japan. Whether this serious accident could have been prevented or managed better is the key question that we need to pursue. Technology Assessment (TA), which is intended to help decision making by assessing possible societal impacts of particular technology, can play significant role in managing catastrophic technological risks by providing an objective assessment of technological risks before it happens, while it is happening and even after the accident. In this special issue on TA, we are fortunate to have papers and reviews from both distinguished experts as well as young scholars. The variety of the subject is also very useful to see how TA can be applied under the different situations. In particular, in the post 3.11 society, we believe it is a good occasion to consider institutionalization of TA in Japan.

Individual risk assessment and information technology to optimise screening frequency for diabetic retinopathy

The aim of this study was to reduce the frequency of diabetic eye-screening visits, while maintaining safety, by using information technology and individualised risk assessment to determine screening intervals. A mathematical algorithm was created based on epidemiological data on risk factors for diabetic retinopathy. Through a website, www.risk.is , the algorithm receives clinical data, including type and duration of diabetes, HbA(1c) or mean blood glucose, blood pressure and the presence and grade of retinopathy. These data are used to calculate risk for sight-threatening retinopathy for each individual's worse eye over time. A risk margin is defined and the algorithm recommends the screening interval for each patient with standardised risk of developing sight-threatening retinopathy (STR) within the screening interval. We set the risk margin so that the same number of patients develop STR within the screening interval with either fixed annual screening or our individualised screening system. The database for diabetic retinopathy at the Department of Ophthalmology, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark, was used to empirically test the efficacy of the algorithm. Clinical data exist for 5,199 patients for 20 years and this allows testing of the algorithm in a prospective manner. In the Danish diabetes database, the algorithm recommends screening intervals ranging from 6 to 60 months with a mean of 29 months. This is 59% fewer visits than with fixed annual screening. This amounts to 41 annual visits per 100 patients. Information technology based on epidemiological data may facilitate individualised determination of screening intervals for diabetic eye disease. Empirical testing suggests that this approach may be less expensive than conventional annual screening, while not compromising safety. The algorithm determines individual risk and the screening interval is individually determined based on each person's risk profile. The algorithm has potential to save on healthcare resources and patients' working hours by reducing the number of screening visits for an ever increasing number of diabetic patients in the world.

Cancer Risk Assessment: Chemical Carcinogenesis, Hazard Evaluation, and Risk QuantificationHsuChing-HungEdited by StedefordTodd Hoboken, NJ. : John Wiley & Sons. , 2010. . 824 pp. ISBN: ISBN: 978-0-470-23822-6. , $185.

Cancer Risk Assessment: Chemical Carcinogenesis, Hazard Evaluation, and Risk QuantificationHsuChing-HungEdited by StedefordTodd Hoboken, NJ. : John Wiley & Sons. , 2010. . 824 pp. ISBN: ISBN: 978-0-470-23822-6. , $185.

Risk assessment model approach for dangerous goods transported by railway

With the development of industry, the amount of dangerous goods transported by railway increased yearly. In order to evaluate the risk to human lives, environment and property, in this paper, the characteristics of railway transport was discussed, then based on the traditional double index (probability and consequences) technology risk assessment model, a improved in-transit risk assessment model for railway dangerous goods was constructed, in which various consequences as casualties and property losses, transportation interrupt and the environmental pollution were considered comprehensively. By effectively evaluate the risk, references criteria will be provided for optimization of railway dangerous goods transportation.

Economic risk assessment of advanced process technologies for bioethanol production in South Africa: Monte Carlo analysis

The development of ethanol industry for use as an alternative motor fuel has been steadily increasing around the world for several reasons. In South Africa, this industry is still in the early stages of development. In the National Biofuels Industrial Strategy, the South African government has made provision for support mechanisms to encourage investment in bioethanol production. There is thus an opportunity for grain-growing farmers to cultivate available or marginal lands for bioethanol crops, including triticale. This article examines the contribution of parametric uncertainty to economic feasibility studies for biomass-to-ethanol process plants. Monte Carlo (stochastic variable) simulation is employed as a tool to determine probability distributions for economic indicators (such as NPV and ROI) in the context of a proposed 200,000 tonnes per annum triticale grain ethanol plant located in the Western Cape province of South Africa. Three process technology scenarios are considered: a conventional starch-to-ethanol plant (Scenario I), an advanced starch-to-ethanol with grain fibre fractionation and energy recovery (Scenario II) and an integrated starch-cellulose plant where fractionated fibre is converted to fermentable sugars by pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis and then fermented to fuel alcohol (Scenario III). By modelling prices of raw materials and products stochastically, based on historical data, the concurrent fluctuations in prices are accounted for, incorporating a quantifiable measure of the associated financial risk to a typical (deterministic) economic prefeasibility analysis. Risk assessment of all processing options reveals that Scenario II is the most preferred fermentation process, achieving very high probability of economic success (98% probability of NPV > 0), suggesting that, under almost all conceivable circumstances of price fluctuation and plant availability, the investment will be successful. This is followed by Scenario III (96% probability of NPV > 0) while the least preferred option is Scenario I (93% probability of NPV > 0). The study also shows, however that without government subsidy, the plant exhibits only a 19% chance of economic success. Economic performance is shown to improve when fast-growing biomass is used to replace electricity as a fuel source for process heating. Monte Carlo simulation could assist energy planners, investors, and policy/decision makers to make a better management decision by identifying possible public policy that could be used to enhance the economic viability of the proposed ethanol plant.

The Risk Assessment and Control Technology to Engineering Schedule

The progress of construction projects in the plan are generally based on engineering theory and construction developed on the basis of experience. In addition, The schedule impact on the political and economic situation, resources, technology development and other factors. So progress has a great uncertainty. Once the delay period to the owner and construction unit will be a great deal of risk, so risk control of the progress it is essential. This article describes the uncertainty factors about affect on schedule and progress against these uncertainties should be how to control and progress of risk response.

Grid-Based Multi-Attribute Risk Assessment of Snow Disasters in the Grasslands of Xilingol, Inner Mongolia

ABSTRACT This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk analysis, assessment, and regionalization of snow disasters in grassland regions, supported by geographical information systems (GIS) and technology of natural disaster risk assessment from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, disaster science, and environmental science. Based on the standard formulation of natural disaster risk, the composite Grassland Snow Disaster Risk Index (GSDRI) combined the hazard of grassland snow, the exposure of the region, the vulnerability, and emergency response and recovery capability (management ability) for grassland snow disasters in the region were developed by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Weighted Comprehensive Method (WCM). The GSDRI was developed to compare the relative risk of economic and life loss in different counties of Xilingol. It can also be used to compare different relative contributions such as meteorological triggering factor, and natural and socioeconomic factors. The result shows that the risk degrees of the grassland snow disaster in Xilingol increases gradually from southwest to northeast. The information obtained from field investigation and interviews in relation to results compiled were statistically evaluated. The results obtained in this study are specifically intended to support local and national governmental agencies in grassland snow disaster management.

Electrochemical disinfection for ballast water management: Technology development and risk assessment

Ballast water is essential in maintaining the balance and structural integrity of ships during voyage. However, it has created biological invasion threats to the ocean environment. An innovative electrochemical technology was developed in this study. The microorganisms regulated by the International Maritime Organization (D2) were used as the target organisms. It was found that the required energy to meet the D2 was below 0.006kWh/m3. The size of disinfector (m3) was about 0.5% of treatment flow rate (m3/h). The complete disappearance of chlorine in seawater was achieved after three days. The ballast tank corrosion was not worsened due to the application of technology. The ecotoxicity studies showed no toxic effect on fish, invertebrate, and algae. Finally, the environmental risk assessment showed the treated water did not pose threats to the environment. It can therefore be concluded that the technology provides a cost-effective and environmental friendly solution to ballast water management.

Constructing access in predictive medicine. Comparing classification for hereditary breast cancer risks in England, Germany and the Netherlands

In the first decade of the twenty-first century, predictive forms of medicine, largely associated with genetics, have become increasingly prominent. This has given rise to questions about the social consequences of this development, for example with regard to the distribution of health care access. Drawing on qualitative interviews with clinic staff and public officials and on document analyses, we analyse how access to risk assessment and monitoring for hereditary breast cancer predispositions in Germany, the Netherlands and England is produced through the interaction of risk classification and health care organisation. For each of the three countries, we show how particular combinations of genetic testing and family history data, classification of risks and allocation of monitoring services in practice contribute to specific forms of inclusion and exclusion. Thus, we show how risk assessment and monitoring in Germany attributes a large role to genetic testing; how family history information plays a large role in the Netherlands; and how regional differences in health care have a significant influence in England. On the basis of our case study, we argue that health care organisation is an important facet of the allocation of health care access, as it plays an important role in mediating the influence of risk assessment technologies and risk categories in health care access. We conclude that the allocation of risk assessment and monitoring in predictive medicine deserve more extensive political attention.

Two cases of sperm immotility: a mosaic of flagellar alterations related to dysplasia of the fibrous sheath and abnormalities of head-neck attachment

To characterize the association of two systematic sperm defects. Case report. University, Interdepartmental Centre for Research and Therapy of Male Infertility. Patient 1, 42 years old, and patient 2, 38 years old, both with severe asthenozoospermia. Family history, physical examination, hormonal analysis, microbial assays, semen analysis, transmission and scanning electron microscopy, immunocytochemistry for tubulin, and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) for chromosomes 18, X, and Y. Admixture of dysplasia of the fibrous sheath (DFS) and head-tail misalignment up to acephalic sperm detected by microscopic methods. In both patients, DFS was present in incomplete form and was associated with acephalic sperm and abnormal head-tail attachment. In patient 2, spermatozoa were also affected by necrosis that may cause fragmentation leading to short flagella; submicroscopic examination allowed defining only the origin of these "stumpy" tails. Immunofluorescence confirmed the sperm alterations. FISH revealed an altered frequency of diploidy and disomy in patient 2 and a slight increase in diploidy in patient 1. The importance of ultrastructural sperm evaluation for correct identification of sperm pathologies is evident, particularly regarding assisted reproduction technology and genetic risk assessment.

Challenges to improve confidence level of risk assessment of hydrogen technologies

Making large-scale distribution and use of hydrogen successful will require adequate risk control. In turn, control requires risk assessment. Despite many years of experience, in general, methods to determine risk lack still robustness: results being much too dependent on choices made by the analyst due to uncertainties, lack of data and different views. This can create frustration amongst people dependent on results. HySafe and other groups work in the right direction. This paper will review existing methodological weaknesses, current improvements in e.g. the context of developing risk-informed standards and emphasize the challenges to raise quality further. The Standard Benchmark Exercise Problems, SBEPs, were a good start but shall produce recommendations for CFD use or even certification of models. Scenario generation shall take advantage of historical incident data and newer methods such as Bayesian belief nets, and cover the entire hydrogen distribution system and not only garages and refueling stations; the analyses shall more explicitly present confidence intervals on results. Knowledge gaps on e.g. ignition probability shall be defined and filled.

Brandeis's Laboratories of Sentencing and Corrections: Making Better Use of Knowledge from the States

State criminal justice systems have great opportunities to learn from the successes and failures of other states. Justice Brandeis famously called the states “laboratories” for innovation in law and policy. Yet researchers, policy makers, and law makers have done too little to exploit this unique American resource. This article highlights a number of issues in the field of sentencing and corrections that jump forward from a combined reading of all the articles published in this volume. The subjects are: (1) a suggestion for improvement on the current model for state-based research in criminal justice; (2) the pressing need to attend to policy issues at the “back end” of the sentencing chronology; (3) the growing use of risk assessment technology at various stages of the sentencing process; (4) the need to embrace less-than-perfect solutions; and (5) the need to develop new policy approaches to combat racial and ethnic disparities among those sentenced.

Extending comprehensive cancer center expertise in clinical cancer genetics and genomics to diverse communities: the power of partnership.

Rapidly evolving genetic and genomic technologies for genetic cancer risk assessment (GCRA) are revolutionizing the approach to targeted therapy and cancer screening and prevention, heralding the era of personalized medicine. Although many academic medical centers provide GCRA services, most people receive their medical care in the community setting. However, few community clinicians have the knowledge or time needed to adequately select, apply, and interpret genetic/genomic tests. This article describes alternative approaches to the delivery of GCRA services, profiling the City of Hope Cancer Screening & Prevention Program Network (CSPPN) academic and community-based health center partnership as a model for the delivery of the highest-quality evidence-based GCRA services while promoting research participation in the community setting. Growth of the CSPPN was enabled by information technology, with videoconferencing for telemedicine and Web conferencing for remote participation in interdisciplinary genetics tumor boards. Grant support facilitated the establishment of an underserved minority outreach clinic in the regional County hospital. Innovative clinician education, technology, and collaboration are powerful tools to extend GCRA expertise from a National Cancer Institute-designated Comprehensive Cancer Center, enabling diffusion of evidenced-base genetic/genomic information and best practice into the community setting.

Use of risk measures in design and licensing of future reactors

Use of information and insights from probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in nuclear reactor safety applications has been increasing by the nuclear industry and the regulators, both domestically and internationally. This is a desirable trend, as PRAs have demonstrated capability to improve safety and operational flexibility beyond that provided through deterministic approaches alone. But there can be potential pitfalls. The limitations of risk assessment technology can be lost through approaches that rely heavily on quantitative PRA results (referred to as risk measures in this paper), because of the unambiguous but potentially misleading message that can be delivered by risk-based numbers. This is particularly true for future reactors, where PRAs are used during the design and licensing processes. For these applications, it is important to ensure that the actual, de facto, or even perceived use of risk measures in the context of either regulatory or design acceptance criteria is avoided. While the issues discussed here can have a significant influence on design certification or combined license applications for future reactors, they can also have secondary impacts on currently operating reactors.