Risk Assessment Of Species Research Articles

Invasive alien plants in Poland – the state of research and the use of the results in practice

Abstract The participation of species of alien origin in the flora of individual regions of the world is increasing. A large proportion of these species pose a threat to biodiversity. Issues of the dynamics of changes in the flora and the scale and pace of the processes, with particular emphasis on the biology, ecology, chorology, and genetic variability of the populations of plants of alien origin, including those alien species which are invasive, have been the subject of many years of research in this field in Poland. The present study is an overview of the state of research on invasive plant species in Poland, including the main results of the basic and applied research which have provided the basis for (i) the preparation of a list of invasive plant species for Poland; (ii) assessing the degree of invasiveness of the species analysed, in accordance with the adoption of criteria and the development of methodological solutions. In this work, a new version of the list of invasive plant species has been prepared on the basis of earlier studies, combining theoretical and practical aspects of definition, and it is compared with the list of invasive alien plant species considered to constitute a threat to the EU and Poland as a member country. The categorization (risk assessment) of invasive alien species along with the identification of the most endangered types of natural habitats is often used in practice in the management of invasive plants in Poland. The results of our research have fed into the formulation of legal regulations at the global and regional levels.

Characterization of antibiotic resistance across Earth's microbial genomes

Widespread antibiotic resistance across Earth's habitats has become a critical health concern. However, large-scale investigation on the distribution of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in the microbiomes from most types of ecosystem is still lacking. In this study, we provide a comprehensive characterization of ARGs for 52,515 microbial genomes covering various Earth's ecosystems, and conduct the risk assessment for ARG-carrying species based on further identification of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and virulence factor genes (VFGs). We identify a total of 6159 ARG-carrying metagenome-assembled genomes (ACMs), and most of them are recovered from human gut and city subway. Our results show that efflux pump is the most common mechanism for bacteria to acquire multidrug resistance genes in Earth's microbiomes. Enterobacteriaceae species are the largest hosts of ARGs, accounting for 14% of total ACMs with 64% of the total ARG hits. Most of ARG-carrying species are unique in the different ecosystem categories, while 33 potential background ARGs are commonly shared by all ecosystem categories. We then detect 36 high-risk ARGs that likely threat public health in all ACMs. Based on ranking the importance of ARG-carrying species in the different ecosystem categories, several bacterial taxa such as Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, and Pseudomonas_A stutzeri are recognized as priority species for surveillance and control. Overall, our study gives a broad view of ARG-host associations in the environments.

Response of phosphorus sensitive plants to arsenate

Arsenate (As (V)) is a highly toxic species of arsenic (As) which is also an excellent phosphate analogue. Plant species that are adapted to phosphorus (P) impoverished soil display a negative response to elevated phosphate due to an inability to downregulate P acquisition. Despite widespread As contamination and shared transport systems for As (V) and P uptake, little to no information is available on the response of P-sensitive plants to As (V). The aim of the study was to investigate the response of P-sensitive plants to As (V). One high (Hakea prostrata R.BR) and one moderate (Banksia seminuda B.Rye) P-sensitive species and one vegetable plant species (Cucumis sativus L.) were grown in nutrient solution containing different As (V) concentrations. Based on EC50 data from nutrient culture, Hakea prostrata was the most sensitive species to As (V) followed by B. seminuda and C. sativus. Critical exogenous concentrations of As that reduced plant growth by 50 % (EC50) in H. prostrata, B. seminuda and C. sativus were respectively 0.64, 0.76 and 1.08 μM for shoot and 0.66, 0.51, 1.07 μM for root. Hakea prostrata had the highest translocation factor (ratio of As concentration in shoot to root) of 0.11, followed by B. seminuda (0.03), and C. sativus (0.01). Plant species with high and moderate P sensitivity were associated with high sensitivity to As (V) exposure and accumulation in shoots. The increased sensitivity has important implications in ecological risk assessment and selection of plant species for rehabilitation. The impacts of As(V) at low P levels in soil solution is needed to inform contaminated site assessment and rehabilitation.

The value of increased spatial resolution of pesticide usage data for assessing risk to endangered species

AbstractDecision makers often cite data quality as a limitation in environmental management. Value of information approaches evaluate the benefit of new data collection for management outcomes. Pesticide exposure risk assessment for endangered species is one context where data limitations may affect decisions and a value of information type approach could be useful for identifying optimal data quality and resolution. Under the U.S. Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for registering pesticides before they can be sold and regularly reviewing pesticides. Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act requires that the EPA consider potential impacts of pesticides to listed endangered species and critical habitats in this process, and for the Services—U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service—to complete a formal Section 7 consultation if the EPA deems it necessary. The current process is time‐intensive, lacks transparency and confidence among stakeholders, and leaves hundreds of unreviewed pesticides on the market. Increasing the resolution of pesticide usage data could address these concerns by improving estimated overlaps between species ranges and pesticide usage. Thus, we evaluated the relative importance of different resolutions of pesticide usage data for assessing expected carbaryl exposure to endangered plant species endemic to California. We found that spatially explicit, township resolution usage data (~36 mile2) excluded 33% of terrestrial plants (55/168) and 51% their critical habitats (27/53) from requiring a Section 7 consultation, while coarser resolution data excluded none. In contrast, the EPA's biological evaluation for carbaryl only excludes 4% of terrestrial plants (nationally) from requiring formal Section 7 consultation. This suggests high‐resolution data could increase pesticide review efficiency and decrease the amount of time pesticides remain on the market without a formal evaluation.

DETERMINATION OF THE CONSERVATION STATUS OF THE “ESCAMOLERA” ANT (Liometopum apiculatum MAYR) IN MEXICO BY THE SPECIES RISK ASSESSEMENT METHODOLOGY – MER

The larvae and pupae of Liometopum apiculatum, an ant species known as “escamolera” (Lap), are valued for their flavour and nutritional value. Currently demand at restaurants trade, high price and other factors have threatened their populations. However, in Mexico there is no risk assessment for this species. Therefore, information was compiled to evaluate the conservation status of L apiculatum. The species Risk Assessment Methodology (MER) of Appendix I in the Mexican Standard NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010 determines the risk category of a species based on scores of four criteria and places a species as “Extinct in the wild, subject to special protection, threatened or in danger of extinction”. In this study, the related scores were, for Criterion A (taxon distributional area), 3 points (restricted distribution); Criterion B (habitat status regarding its natural development), 1 point (apt, or not limiting); Criterion C (biological vulnerability), 1 point (low vulnerability); and criterion D (impact of human activity on the taxon) scored 3 points (medium impact). The sum of the scores of the four MER criteria indicated that Lap (the escamolera ant) should be placed in the category of Subject to special protection (SSP). This information shall be used to design management and conservation policies for edible insects in Mexico.

Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming

The Arctic may be particularly vulnerable to the consequences of both ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, given the faster pace of these processes in comparison with global average speeds. Here, we use the Atlantis ecosystem model to assess how the trophic network of marine fishes and invertebrates in the Icelandic waters is responding to the combined pressures of OA and warming. We develop an approach where we first identify species by their economic (catch value), social (number of participants in fisheries), or ecological (keystone species) importance. We then use literature-determined ranges of sensitivity to OA and warming for different species and functional groups in the Icelandic waters to parametrize model runs for different scenarios of warming and OA. We found divergent species responses to warming and acidification levels; (mainly) planktonic groups and forage fish benefited while (mainly) benthic groups and predatory fish decreased under warming and acidification scenarios. Assuming conservative harvest rates for the largest catch-value species, Atlantic cod, we see that the population is projected to remain stable under even the harshest acidification and warming scenario. Further, for the scenarios where the model projects reductions in biomass of Atlantic cod, other species in the ecosystem increase, likely due to a reduction in competition and predation. These results highlight the interdependencies of multiple global change drivers and their cascading effects on trophic organization, and the continued high abundance of an important species from a socio-economic perspective in the Icelandic fisheries.

Risk assessment of marine invasive species in Chinese ports introduced by the global shipping network

The discharge of ballast water from ocean-going ships is a major pathway by which invasive species are introduced into coastal waters. As a global factory and trade power with extensive shipping networks, China has paid a huge ecological price for its progress. However, current endeavors to protect the nation's biodiversity are largely focused on terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, for the first time, we conducted a comprehensive risk assessment of ballast water-induced biological invasion in Chinese ports. The results showed that the ports in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Southern Taiwan Province face significantly high invasion risks, and the number of donor ports, connected ships, and arriving vessels showed a positive correlation with the invasion risk. Further, we observed that even a low efficacy disinfection of ballast water can still significantly decrease the level of invasion risk.

Modelling presence versus abundance for invasive species risk assessment

AbstractAimInvasive species prevention and management can be guided by comparisons of invasion risk across space and among species. Species distribution models are widely used to assess invasion risk and typically estimate suitability for species presence. However, suitability for presence may not capture patterns of abundance and impact. We asked how models estimating suitability for presence versus suitability for abundance aligned in their implications for risk assessment.LocationWestern United States.MethodsWe developed ensembles of species distribution models for presence and for abundance for four invasive plants. We visualized the distribution of presence and abundance in environmental and geographic space and compared model outputs using criteria relevant for decision‐making: a comparison of risk across management units for each species, and a ranking of risk among species for each management unit.ResultsWe found good overall agreement between models of presence versus abundance in the relative risk across management units and among species. However, the area predicted to be suitable for invasive species presence was often substantially higher than the area predicted to be suitable for abundance, especially within uninvaded management units.Main conclusionsModels of suitability for invasive species presence and abundance yielded similar assessments of relative risk in comparisons across space and species. In addition, we found patterns of presence and abundance in environmental space can guide modelling decisions and model interpretation. Suitability for abundance can improve relative risk assessment when abundance locations occupy a well‐defined subset of the environmental space corresponding to presence. Where abundance locations occur throughout this environmental space, as was particularly striking for Taeniatherum caput‐medusae, suitability for presence may better reflect risk of ongoing population increases and spread. This species is at risk of becoming abundant across a substantial portion of the western United States.

Spatiotemporal distribution and human health risk assessment of potential toxic species in soils of urban and surrounding crop fields from an agricultural area, Córdoba, Argentina.

The spatiotemporal distribution of potentially toxic species was studied in the topsoil of parks, playgrounds, and surrounding crop fields of Marcos Juarez City in Córdoba province, Argentina. The content of available metals and of some pesticides used in the region was determined. The mean values of available metal concentrations in all samples, expressed in mgkg-1, were 7.99 ± 6.58, 0.89 ± 0.71, 0.35 ± 0.26, and 1.50 ± 1.40 for Pb, Cr, Cd, and Ni, respectively. Pearson's correlation coefficients, coefficient of variation (%), and principal component analysis were used to explore whether variations in metal content were associated with anthropogenic factors. Agrochemicals such as lindane, chlorobenzilate, endosulfan, endrin, permethrin, and chlorpyrifos were found in crop field soil samples. In turn, chlorothalonil, chlordanes, methoxychlor, DDT, permethrin, and chlorpyrifos were detected in park and playground soil samples. The degree of pollution with possible effects on environmental health was evaluated using the Nemerow integrated pollution index (NIPI) and the modified degree of contamination (mCd). In some campaigns, the values obtained from crop fields ranged from low to high pollution levels during periods of agrochemical application. Noteworthy, in periods of low agrochemical application in crop fields, a high level of pollution was observed in parks and playgrounds. For children, the hazard index (HI) values were higher than the threshold value of 1, suggesting a potential health risk. This study provides valuable information regarding land management practices and highlights the importance of monitoring and implementing policies to reduce human health risks.

Monitoring and risk assessment of arsenic species and metals in the Taehwa River in Ulsan, the largest industrial city in South Korea

Toxic metals, As, and As species were monitored at 18 stations along the Taehwa River in Ulsan. The concentrations of Ni (98.4 μg/L) at stations near industrial areas were relatively high and exceeded the WHO's drinking water guidelines (70 μg/L) and the US EPA's national recommended water quality criteria (52 μg/L). Principal component analysis and cluster analysis revealed that Ni and Cu were more strongly influenced by industrial activity than other elements in the Taehwa River estuary. Analysis of the hazard quotient (HQ) and cancer risk (CR) indicated that As was of the greatest non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic concern. Notably, the HQ and CR of AsIII at suburban stations exceeded 1 and 10−4, respectively, representing a significant health risk. These results indicate that As speciation testing is crucial for the development of effective management plans based on health risks because the toxicity and mobility of As depend on its chemical form.

Ecological responses to elevated water temperatures across invasive populations of the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) in the Great Lakes basin

Climate warming is expected to alter the distribution, abundance, and impact of non-native species in aquatic ecosystems. In laboratory experiments, we measured the maximum feeding rate and critical thermal maximum (CTmax) of an invasive Eurasian fish, the round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), acclimated to a range of temperatures (18–28 °C) reflecting current and projected future thermal conditions for the nearshore Great Lakes. Fish were collected from four distinct populations along a latitudinal gradient from the western basin of Lake Erie to Hamilton Harbour (Lake Ontario) and the upper St. Lawrence River. Thermal tolerance increased with acclimation temperature for populations in Lakes Erie and Ontario. However, the St. Lawrence River populations had lower acclimation capacity and exhibited an unexpected decline in CTmax at the highest acclimation temperature. Maximum feeding rates peaked at 18–24 °C and declined with temperatures above 24 °C. Northern populations in the basin appear poorly adapted to elevated temperatures such that their performance and impact could be reduced by climate warming. Thermal response data from latitudinally distributed populations are needed to inform invasive species risk assessment.

Climatic niche shifts in 815 introduced plant species affect their predicted distributions

AbstractAimIntroduced species often occupy different climates in their introduced than their native range, but to what degree do such ‘climatic niche shifts’ interfere with our ability to predict invasions? Answering this question is crucial if we are to understand the threat invasive species pose to human and natural systems, especially given the ever increasing use of species distribution models as tools for invasive species risk assessment and management. Here we investigated the degree to which climatic niche shifts interfered with the transferability of native‐ and introduced‐range species distribution models.LocationOur dataset consisted of c. 14 million occurrences distributed worldwide.Time periodOccurrence data were collected from online repositories dating from c. 1600 with the vast majority being from the 20th century. Climatic data represent means between 1970 and 2000.Major taxa studiedOur database represented 815 terrestrial plant species.MethodsWe used ordination to identify climatic niche shifts as species moved between continents. Next, we trained separate Maxent models using native‐ or introduced‐range occurrences, and projected those models into each species’ introduced range. We compared the ordination and Maxent models to determine whether niche shifts were associated with errors in Maxent predictions.ResultsModels trained on native‐range occurrences poorly predicted introduced‐range occurrences, and transferability was lowest in species with large climatic niche shifts. Directional shifts in species’ predicted geographic distributions mirrored their niche dynamics. This is concerning because native‐range data are often used to predict introduced‐range distributions.Main conclusionsOur results highlight the importance of considering niche shifts when modelling the potential geographic distributions of introduced species, and cast doubt on the assumption that the climatic niche of a species can be transferred between native and invasive ranges.

Eriophyid Mites in Classical Biological Control of Weeds: Progress and Challenges.

Simple SummaryEriophyid mites are tiny creatures, no bigger than a speck of dust. All species feed on plants and some can cause considerable damage. These mites have an intimate relationship with the plants that they live on, and most of the known species have been collected only from a single plant species, which suggests they are very specific to their host. They reproduce extremely quickly and can build up populations of millions, if not billions, of individuals within a single season. In recent years, research to evaluate their potential for the biological control of invasive plants has increased. Working with these minuscule herbivores poses challenges and offers opportunities for researchers. We review the most updated information in the context of weed biocontrol, giving current information on the challenges already faced and possible opportunities and solutions. We cover topics on taxonomy, evaluation of safety as biological control agents, impact and efficacy on the targeted plant species, and release and post-release monitoring. By offering the lessons learned from past research in a single updated document, our goal is to equip researchers with a valuable tool to help deal with the challenges and opportunities offered by eriophyid mites for the management of invasive plants.A classical biological control agent is an exotic host-specific natural enemy, which is intentionally introduced to obtain long-term control of an alien invasive species. Among the arthropods considered for this role, eriophyid mites are likely to possess the main attributes required: host specificity, efficacy, and long-lasting effects. However, so far, only a few species have been approved for release. Due to their microscopic size and the general lack of knowledge regarding their biology and behavior, working with eriophyids is particularly challenging. Furthermore, mites disperse in wind, and little is known about biotic and abiotic constraints to their population growth. All these aspects pose challenges that, if not properly dealt with, can make it particularly difficult to evaluate eriophyids as prospective biological control agents and jeopardize the general success of control programs. We identified some of the critical aspects of working with eriophyids in classical biological control of weeds and focused on how they have been or may be addressed. In particular, we analyzed the importance of accurate mite identification, the difficulties faced in the evaluation of their host specificity, risk assessment of nontarget species, their impact on the weed, and the final steps of mite release and post-release monitoring.

Mollinedia ruschii (Monimiaceae, Mollinedioideae), a new Critically Endangered species microendemic to the Atlantic rainforest, eastern Brazil

Background – Studies of neotropical Monimiaceae revealed a new species of Mollinedia endemic to the state of Espírito Santo, eastern Brazil. In this study, we describe, illustrate, and compare the new species with related taxa. In addition, ecological comments and extinction risk assessment of the new species are provided.Methods – This study was based on herbarium material and field work observations. The risk of extinction assessment follows the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species’ Criteria and Categories and the latest version of the IUCN Guidelines.Results – Mollinedia ruschii sp. nov. has habitat specificity with few individuals recorded, mainly in the Estação Biológica de Santa Lúcia, a protected area created by Augusto Ruschi, a Brazilian naturalist and researcher, to whom we dedicate the name of the new species. Phytosociological and forest dynamics studies and intensive field work in the area where the species occurs, enabled the detection of the decline of mature individuals in previous decades. Following the IUCN Red List criteria, the species is assessed as Critically Endangered.

Using fine-scale field data modelling for planning the management of invasions of Oenothera stucchii in coastal dune systems

Invasive alien species risk assessment and adaptive management are often hindered by a lack of information for most species. This work aims at predicting the probability of successful establishment and invasion of Oenothera stucchii Soldano, a neophyte invasive species belonging to the sect. Oenothera subsect. Oenothera, in xerophilous grasslands of grey dunes. Based on fine-scale field data, we modelled O. stucchii presence/absence and abundance as a function of environmental factors, human disturbance, and attributes of the recipient community through a zero-inflated Poisson model. The invasion success of O. stucchii depended on a combination of factors which differed when considering either the patterns of occurrence (species presence/absence) or those of species abundance. While human-driven disturbance strongly influenced the probability of presence/absence of O. stucchii, patterns of abundance were mostly driven by a combination of environmental and biotic features. Attributes of the recipient community remarkably influenced both O. stucchii presence and abundance. Based on fine-scale field data, we determined the mechanisms which drive the spatial patterns of presence and abundance of O. stucchii in xerophilous grasslands and provided quantitative thresholds to identify the most susceptible areas of grey dune habitats prone to invasion, which combine human disturbance (distance from the nearest beach access), attributes of the resident community (resident vegetation cover and structure), and environmental disturbance (foredune ridge height). These results provide useful insights to be used to plan cost-effective measures to prevent O. stucchii establishment and spread in sandy coastal systems. Our model may also be applied to closely related congener species included in the subsect. Oenothera, sharing similar biological and ecological traits.

Hazardous Heavy Metals Accumulation and Health Risk Assessment of Different Vegetable Species in Contaminated Soils from a Typical Mining City, Central China.

Heavy metal poisoning has caused serious and widespread human tragedies via the food chain. To alleviate heavy metal pollution, particular attention should be paid to low accumulating vegetables and crops. In this study, the concentrations of five hazardous heavy metals (HMs), including copper (Cu), chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), and arsenic (As) were determined from soils, vegetables, and crops near four typical mining and smelting zones. Nemerow’s synthetical pollution index (Pn), Potential ecological risk index (RI), and Geo-accumulation index (Igeo) were used to characterize the pollution degrees. The results showed that soils near mining and metal smelting zones were heavily polluted by Cu, Cd, As, and Pb. The total excessive rate followed a decreasing order of Cd (80.00%) > Cu (61.11%) > As (45.56%) > Pb (32.22%) > Cr (0.00%). Moreover, sources identification indicated that Cu, Pb, Cd, and As may originate from anthropogenic activities, while Cr may originate from parent materials. The exceeding rates of Cu, Cr, Pb, Cd, and As were 6.7%, 6.7%, 66.7%, 80.0%, and 26.7% among the vegetable and crop species, respectively. Particularly, vegetables like tomatoes, bell peppers, white radishes, and asparagus, revealed low accumulation characteristics. In addition, the hazard index (HI) for vegetables and crops of four zones was greater than 1, revealing a higher risk to the health of local children near the mine and smelter. However, the solanaceous fruit has a low-risk index (HI), indicating that it is a potentially safe vegetable type.

The Invasion Ecology of Sleeper Populations: Prevalence, Persistence, and Abrupt Shifts

ABSTRACTIt is well established that nonnative species are a key driver of global environmental change, but much less is known about the underlying drivers of nonnative species outbreaks themselves. In the present article, we explore the concept and implications of nonnative sleeper populations in invasion dynamics. Such populations persist at low abundance for years or even decades—a period during which they often go undetected and have negligible impact—until they are triggered by an environmental factor to become highly abundant and disruptive. Population irruptions are commonly misinterpreted as a recent arrival of the nonnative species, but sleeper populations belie a more complex history of inconspicuous occurrence followed by an abrupt shift in abundance and ecological impact. In the present article, we identify mechanisms that can trigger their irruption, and the implications for invasive species risk assessment and management.

Vulnerability to warming in a desert amphibian tadpole community: the role of interpopulational variation

AbstractCurrent assessments of organismal vulnerability to global warming are focusing on physiological trait‐based indices that may allow biologically sounding estimates of heating risk at the local scale. However, intraspecific variability in both exposure and physiological performance may determine large heterogeneity in the distribution of heating risks through the overall species range compromising whole species risk assessments. We examine intra‐ and interspecific variability in two vulnerability indexes: warming tolerances (WT), or the extent that maximum temperatures (Tmax) reaching upper thermal tolerances (CTmax); and thermal safety margin (TSM), or the magnitude that average environmental temperatures (Tmean) exceeding the selected or preferred temperatures (Tsel), in a subtropical warm amphibian tadpole community, at the Monte Desert ecoregion, Argentina. Tadpole populations breeds in temporary ponds and permanent streams that exhibit high thermal heterogeneity. Those populations and species living in hot water bodies, although exhibiting higher CTmax, have lower WT and are more prone to suffer acute heat impacts, thus confirming the prediction of higher thermal risk in ectotherms exposed to higher temperatures. However, these hot pond breeders, although living closer to their CTmax, also preferred high temperatures, showing higher TSMs and being actually exposed to a lower proportion of stressful temperatures than cool selecting populations. Both WT and TSM indexes have significant interpopulational variation. Thus, our findings suggest that attempts to build mechanistic models to forecast species vulnerability to heat stress due to climate change have to include physiological variation among populations.

Ammonia spatiotemporal distribution and risk assessment for freshwater species in aquatic ecosystem in China

Ammonia has been of concern for its high toxicity to aquatic species and frequent detection in waters worldwide. This study calculated the national aquatic life criteria for ammonia in China. The temporal and spatial distributions were investigated and the multi-tier ecological risks were assessed for ammonia and un-ionized ammonia (NH3) during 2014–2018 based on a total of 18989 ammonia monitoring data from 110 monitoring sites in seven river basins. The sensitivity comparison of different species taxa to ammonia showed that Perciformes fish should be listed as a priority protected species in the derivation of ammonia criteria. The participation of introduced aquaculture species have no significant impact on the final criteria values (t-test, p > 0.05). The final criterion maximum concentration (CMC) and criterion continuous concentration (CCC) were 10.24 and 3.31 mg/L for ammonia (pH 7.0 and 20 °C). The interannual variation showed that decreasing trends were observed for ammonia and NH3 pollutions in the past five years. However, the increasing trends were observed for ammonia in Liao River basin, for NH3 in Yangtze River and Pearl River basins (2014–2018). The significant seasonal and geographical differences of ammonia and NH3 pollution were found. Moreover, the pollutions of ammonia and NH3 in some monitoring points of Huai River, Yellow River and Songhua River basins at the provincial borders were significant. The result of ecological risk assessment showed that the average exceedance probability for 5% affected species by NH3 in long-term exposure was 28.96% in the past five years.

Using Global Biodiversity Information Facility Occurrence Data for Automated Invasive Alien Species Risk Mapping

To support invasive alien species risk assessments, the Tracking Invasive Alien Species (TrIAS) project has developed an automated, open, workflow incorporating state-of-the-art species distribution modelling practices to create risk maps using the open source language R. It is based on Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data and openly published environmental data layers characterizing climate and land cover. Our workflow requires only a species name and generates an ensemble of machine-learning algorithms (Random Forest, Boosted Regression Trees, K-Nearest Neighbors and AdaBoost) stacked together as a meta-model to produce the final risk map at 1 km2 resolution (Fig. 1). Risk maps are generated automatically for standard Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and are accompanied by maps illustrating the confidence of each individual prediction across space, thus enabling the intuitive visualization and understanding of how the confidence of the model varies across space and scenario (Fig. 2). The effects of sampling bias are accounted for by providing options to: use the sampling effort of the higher taxon the modelled species belongs to (e.g., vascular plants), and to thin species occurrences. use the sampling effort of the higher taxon the modelled species belongs to (e.g., vascular plants), and to thin species occurrences. The risk maps generated by our workflow are defensible and repeatable and provide forecasts of alien species distributions under further climate change scenarios. They can be used to support risk assessments and guide surveillance efforts on alien species in Europe. The detailied modeling framework and code are available on GitHub: https://github.com/trias-project.