Project Risk Assessment Research Articles

Schedule Risk Assessment in High-Rise Building Construction Projects with Joint Operation Scheme by Foreign Contractor in Indonesia

Schedule Risk Assessment in High-Rise Building Construction Projects with Joint Operation Scheme by Foreign Contractor in Indonesia

Study on risk assessment of EPC water conservancy project based on entropy weight set pair analysis

In recent years, EPC mode has been developed rapidly in water conservancy projects. However, due to the complex construction conditions, long construction period and easy to be affected by natural conditions of water conservancy project, the general contractor of EPC project is faced with greater risks. If the risk analysis is not enough, the project profit of the contractor will be lower than expected or even loss. Water conservancy project risk indicators are qualitative indicators, which are easily affected by subjective factors and quantitative uncertainty in the process of index quantification. In this paper, combined with the relevant research at home and abroad, combined with the characteristics of water conservancy projects, the establishment of water conservancy project risk assessment level index system. The set pair analysis model which can comprehensively evaluate the connection degree between risk index and risk level and the entropy weight model which can reflect the information content of the index are introduced into the risk evaluation of EPC water conservancy project. The evaluation results show that the entropy weight method can calculate the weight of each risk index in the risk level, and the set pair analysis method can comprehensively evaluate the connection degree between the risk index and different risk levels.

System of Comprehensive Assessment of Project Risks in the Energy Industry

The article proposes to consider the problem of comprehensive assessment of project risks as applied to the energy industry. The authors of the research focused on the description of the applied solution. A real investment project on replacement of a bark boiler at Mondi Syktyvkar enterprise was chosen as an object for testing the results. We proposed to divide the risks accompanying the project into 2 categories: risks for which there is necessary and statistical information for their quantitative assessment and risks for which this information is absent. As a technique of a quantitative assessment of risks from the first category it is expedient to apply a method of Simulation modeling of Monte Carlo. In this case, the authors of the article conducted a significant analysis of existing methods for assessing project risks and the choice of the Monte Carlo methodology is due to the practical orientation of the study. In practice, the real enterprise is quite problematic to use more complex methods of assessment, such as methods of Real Options or methods of fuzzy logic, neural networks, etc. As a method of qualitative risk assessment (from the second category) the method of expert evaluation with subsequent calculation of risk premium in the discount rate was chosen. This method is common in practice and easy enough to implement. According to the results of the analysis (statistical and expert) the most dangerous risks of energy projects were identified: Production and technological risks (the risk of choosing the wrong technological scheme, the risk of reducing the quality of internal controls, the risk of incorrect calculation of the design capacity of energy production, the risk of industrial safety), security risks (the risk of hacking attacks on information systems of energy enterprises), as well as country risks. Among the most influential risks (based on the analysis of their impact on the main technical and economic indicators of the project) are: the risk of rising prices for purchased gas (fuel), the risk of high volatility of the dollar exchange rate. The results of the study were used in a real project and the risk assessment methodology was implemented in the project activities of Mondi Syktyvkar enterprise.

Simulating diluted bitumen spills in boreal lake limnocorrals - Part 1: Experimental design and responses of hydrocarbons, metals, and water quality parameters

Large-scale, in-lake enclosures (limnocorrals) were used to simulate spills of diluted bitumen (dilbit) in a boreal lake. In this study we use these simulated spills, which covered a range of sizes (oil:water ratio) representative of the upper 25% of onshore crude oil spills in North America (2008–2019), to assess the fate of dilbit-derived hydrocarbons and metals as well as the impacts of the spills on standard water quality parameters. The systems were monitored over 70 days following the application of dilbit amounts ranging between 1.5 and 179.8 L into 10-m diameter, ~100 m3 limnocorrals. The concentration of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) in the water column increased rapidly over the first two weeks reaching a plateau that ranged between 200 μg/L and 2200 μg/L for the lowest and highest treatment respectively. The concentration of total polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) also increased over the first two weeks, prior to a slow decrease until day 70. The maximum measured concentrations in the highest treatment were 2858 ng/L for the sum of all 46 quantified PACs, 2716 ng/L for alkylated PACs and 154 ng/L for the 16 EPA priority PAHs. The concentrations of PACs in the sediment increased continuously over the study in the three highest treatments with maximum observed concentrations of 189 ng/g for ΣPAC46, 169 ng/g for ΣPACalk. No significant treatment-related changes in the 16 EPA priority PAHs were observed in the sediment. Of the 25 metals quantified in the water column, only manganese, molybdenum, and vanadium displayed a significant treatment effect with increases of 280, 76 and 25% respectively in the total fraction. These results can help us understand and predict the fate of oil-derived contaminants following a spill and characterize the exposure of freshwater organisms living within them. These results should help inform the risk assessment of future dilbit transportation projects.

Software Project Management Using Machine Learning Technique—A Review

Project management planning and assessment are of great significance in project performance activities. Without a realistic and logical plan, it isn’t easy to handle project management efficiently. This paper presents a wide-ranging comprehensive review of papers on the application of Machine Learning in software project management. Besides, this paper presents an extensive literature analysis of (1) machine learning, (2) software project management, and (3) techniques from three main libraries, Web Science, Science Directs, and IEEE Explore. One-hundred and eleven papers are divided into four categories in these three repositories. The first category contains research and survey papers on software project management. The second category includes papers that are based on machine-learning methods and strategies utilized on projects; the third category encompasses studies on the phases and tests that are the parameters used in machine-learning management and the final classes of the results from the study, contribution of studies in the production, and the promotion of machine-learning project prediction. Our contribution also offers a more comprehensive perspective and a context that would be important for potential work in project risk management. In conclusion, we have shown that project risk assessment by machine learning is more successful in minimizing the loss of the project, thereby increasing the likelihood of the project success, providing an alternative way to efficiently reduce the project failure probabilities, and increasing the output ratio for growth, and it also facilitates analysis on software fault prediction based on accuracy.

Risk Factor Identification and Evaluation on SPB Shield Underneath Existing Railroad Settlement

Regarding the situation of slurry pressure shield tunneling underneath existing operating railway, the traditional risk assessment method takes the settlement risk of shield tunneling underneath the railroad as the evaluation objective cannot determine the risk development trend. Therefore, a shield tunneling underneath railroad risk evaluation model based on set pair analysis was proposed. Firstly, according to the Slurry Pressure Balance shield construction mechanism, the risk source identification of the shield construction process and railroad operation was carried out, and the index factor system that leads to the settlement risk was formed. The importance of each evaluation index in the model was optimized by rough set, and then a five-element connection number model with objectively improved weights was obtained. Finally, assessed the risk level of railroad settlement caused by the shield tunneling. This model is suitable for the actual construction of a subway shield tunnel, which is consistent with the site survey results and has reference significance for the risk assessment of similar projects.

A simulation-based risk interdependency network model for project risk assessment

Project risks are mostly considered to be independent in risk management, ignoring interdependencies among them, which can lead to inappropriate risk assessment and reduced efficacy in risk treatment. This study introduces a new Monte Carlo simulation-based risk interdependency network model to support decision makers in assessing project risks and planning risk treatment actions more effectively. The Interpretive Structural Modeling method is integrated into this model to develop a hierarchical project risk interdependency network based on identified risks and their cause-effect relationships. The Monte Carlo method is used to model the stochastic behavior of risk occurrence and to generate numerous possible risk scenarios through simulation. To evaluate single risks and overall project risk level while considering risk interdependencies, five major risk indicators are therefore proposed, namely simulated occurrence probability of a risk, simulated local and global influence of a risk, as well as total risk loss and total risk propagation loss of a project. An additional sensitivity analysis is also included to examine the effects of input uncertainties of this model on risk assessment results. Moreover, two case studies are provided to demonstrate the application and effectiveness of the proposed model. The findings accentuate the significance of considering risk interdependencies in project risk assessment and validate the model's robustness and feasibility in risk management of projects with complex interrelated risks.

Application of FMEA and AHP in Elevated Highway Construction Project Risk Assessment

Background: By investigating accidents in industries, it can be concluded that a significant proportion of work-related accidents occur in the construction industry. The present study aimed to apply a hybrid model in identifying and prioritizing risks in a construction project with new machinery. Methods: In this study, the methodological shortcomings of the traditional failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) method and the need to prioritize control measures were modified by the analytical hierarchy of process (AHP). The FMEA was used for risk identification and risk assessment in the elevated highway construction project, then AHP accidents were prioritized according to their physical, psychological, economic, and socio-political burden. Results: In the AHP structure, several sub-criteria for each criterion were considered and weighted for each item. The five activities included crane collapse, falling from a height, collapse, and electrocution devices that their risk priority number is more than 250 weighted by the AHP. Discussion: Based on the literature, the traditional FMEA has many shortcomings that need to be corrected by other methods. This study aimed to modify the traditional FMEA method using a hybrid model. Conclusion: The findings of this study showed that in urban projects, hazards threaten workers, citizens, and company properties. In addition to accidents, deaths, and injuries, they have negative consequences, such as health, psychological, economic, and socio-political impacts. Accidents cause loss of human life, worker's mental health problems, damage to equipment or property, worker's productivity loss, and affect the profit and reputation of the organization. Due to many deficiencies of the conventional risk priority number (RPN) in the FMEA method, it was criticized, and to enhance the performance of the FMEA in risk analysis, various risk priority models have been proposed.

Practical leakage risk assessment for CO2 assisted enhanced oil recovery and geologic storage in Ohio's depleted oil fields

A method for risk assessments of geological carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) projects was created and the results of three risk assessments for potential CCUS projects at depleted oil fields in Ohio are presented. The risk framework described uses the bow-tie method with features, events, and processes (FEPs) to identify and assess risk posed by potential loss of integrity of legacy wells. Field-scale well integrity studies have had to rely largely on historical data to assess the potential for fluid leakage related to CCUS projects. This study uses categories of known information to develop a proxy for likelihood of leakage. Proxy categories were: Spud Date, Treatment, Well Status, Plugging and Abandonment Date, Well Type, Plug, Surface Cement, and Primary Cement. Separate risks were developed for each well and each scenario. The consequence of a leakage event was estimated based on costs to businesses and property owners for each leakage scenario. Cost categories in this framework include finding and fixing the leak, environmental remediation, CO2 injection interruption, technical remedies for damages, and legal costs. Using the likelihood of leakage calculated for each field and the cost of potential consequences, the risks for each field were estimated to be between $13 million to $63 million for the three fields of interest. The use of the bow-tie method allows easy visualization and identification of barriers that may reduce the likelihood of the top event in a risk scenario.

Multi-factor dependence modelling with specified marginals and structured association in large-scale project risk assessment

This paper examines the high-dimensional dependence modelling problem in the context of project risk assessment. As the dimension of uncertain performance units (i.e., itemized costs and activity times) in a project increases, specifying a feasible correlation matrix and eliciting relevant pair-wise information, either from historical data or with expert judgement, becomes practically unattainable or simply not economical. This paper presents a factor-driven dependence elicitation and modelling framework with scalability to large-scale project risks. The multi-factor association model (MFAM) accounts for hierarchical relationships of multiple association factors and provides a closed-form solution to a complete and mathematically consistent correlation matrix. Augmented with the structured association (SA) technique for systematic identification of hierarchical association factors, the MFAM offers additional flexibility of utilizing the minimum information available in standardized, ubiquitous project plans (e.g., work breakdown structure, resource allocation, or risk register), while preserving the computational efficiency and the scalability to high dimensional project risks. Numerical applications and simulation experiments show that the MFAM, further combined with extended analytics (i.e., parameter calibration and optimization), provides credible risk assessments (with accuracy comparable to full-scale simulation) and further enhances the realism of dealing with high-dimensional project risks utilizing all relevant information.

Principles of forming procedures for justifying the economic efficiency of space debris removal processes

Near-Earth space pollution can be classified as an international problem. The research considers variation technical and technological innovative projects that can decide this problem, as well as methods for calculating the costs of their realization. Cost and labor intensity modeling takes into account the concept of designing systems for the disposal of cataloged space debris. Unitized approaches to technical and economic assessment of the feasibility of space debris disposal concepts are considered and a mechanism for justifying economic efficiency is developed, which includes the following synergistic differentiated principles: the objectivity and subjectivity, the accuracy and reliability increasing, the marginal cost estimation, the probabilistic risk assessment accounting, the principle of logical-probabilistic modeling of development obsolescence in outer space, the principle of risk assessment and monitoring of space projects. The proposed mechanism for evaluating the economic efficiency based on additive factors can be used for economic justification of scientific, technical and experimental-design developments of space vehicles for technological designated purpose.

MATHEMATICAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR BIODIESEL PRODUCTION PROJECTS IN UKRAINE AGRICULTURE

Abstract. One of the trends in the development of the market of alternative motor fuels is the production and use of biofuels, biodiesel in particular. Biodiesel which is used by domestic farmers is mainly self-produced. The current situation is related, first of all, to the lack of a single standard (regulation) for biodiesel production technology and is not enshrined in any legal act in Ukraine. In the conditions of the market functioning, agricultural producers face various risk factors, in particular, instability of prices for fuels and lubricants, monopolization of certain regions or market segments by traders, low quality of fuel, etc. Conditions of biodiesel production, as well as other economic activities, usually require the creation or involvement of labor, financial and material resources, which also affects the change in the level of risk. These problems can be solved by adapting and improving the existing mathematical apparatus to risk assessment for biodiesel production projects by agricultural enterprises. The main legal act that allows to determine and assess the level of risk is the state standard of Ukraine «Risk Management. Methods of general risk assessment», which served as the methodological foundation of the study. We propose to use three main technological schemes of biodiesel production, namely: cyclic scheme of production with the use of catalysts; non-catalytic cyclic circuit and multi-reactor continuous circuit scheme. In order to analyze each of these schemes, it is proposed to analyze the feasibility of investment in terms of their effectiveness and tie-in to the risks of introducing innovative technologies. The developed methodology provides a substantiation for the choice of technological option for biodiesel production. An algorithm for calculating risks has been proposed for the introduction of biodiesel production, the preparation of business plans and the assessment of criticality of possible losses for the production. The use of methods of vector algebra and fuzzy logic in the formation of the mathematical model makes it possible to estimate the probability indicators of each risk. Keywords: biodiesel, risks, mathematical model, agriculture, risk assessment, risk assessment methods. JEL Classification C60, Q42 Formulas: 8; fig.: 0; tabl.: 0; bibl.: 18.

AN ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS BASED RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR PPP HYDROPOWER INVESTMENTS

The number of public-private partnership (PPP) projects has gone up especially in developing countries. The risk assessment of PPP projects is essential in ensuring project success. The objective of this study is to develop an Analytic Network Process (ANP) based risk assessment model for hydropower investments, and a tool to facilitate quantification of risk ratings based on this model. The results show that the three most important risk factors that affect the overall risk rating of a PPP hydropower investment are legal risks, contractor/subcontractor risks, and operator risks. In addition, the three most important risk clusters were identified as stakeholders, government requirements, and resources, whereas market was the least important cluster. The tool that measures the risk rating of a PPP of hydropower project was tested on ten real cases, and satisfactory results were obtained in terms of its predictive capability. The contributions of this research include (1) identification of the risk factors and clusters of factors associated with PPP hydropower investments; (2) determination of the priority of each risk factor and cluster; (3) development a tool that guides the investors through the risk assessment of PPP hydropower investments.

A framework for interactive risk assessment in projects: case study of oil and gas megaprojects in presence of sanctions

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the interactive network of risk factors in the construction and preparation project of gas condensate storage tanks in the presence of sanctions.Design/methodology/approachFirst, this paper determines and weighs the project goals using the stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis method. Then, this study identifies and categorizes the project risks and form the network of the project risk factors based on the weight of the project goals by using interpretive structural modeling and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory techniques.FindingsThe results of the current work divide the risks of such projects into five financial, technical, managerial and contractual, social and environmental and political categories. The analyzes indicate the complicated risk network and the cause-and-effect interactions between the risks. The findings identify the financial and political risk clusters as the most effective category and select the technical, managerial and contractual and social and environmental risk clusters as the most affected categories. The technical risk has the least important among the others under the sanction conditions.Originality/valueThis paper model the domino effect of the risk factors considering the complicated interactions and the cause-and-effect relations in a network. Moreover, this study discusses the importance of the risk factors in oil and gas megaprojects in the presence of sanctions. Finally, this paper applies the proposed approach to a real case study in the field of gas projects.

Use of a 3D stratigraphic model as tool for improved communication and risk assessment in large infrastructure projects

As more work processes are moving into the digital space, such as collaborative BIM environments, the toolbox of the geotechnical engineer needs an update to efficiently keep track. Visualization of soil conditions in 3D space, using implicit modelling tools, is rapidly changing how geotechnical engineers engage with digital data. For a large railroad development in Norway, a 3D stratigraphic model is developed to act as a hub for soil interpretation, decision making and communication of geotechnical challenges and risks. Lithology is interpreted from all geotechnical boreholes and used as basis for the model together with a terrain model from GIS. The model is dynamically updated as new geotechnical soil investigations are performed and is actively used in the geotechnical design work. Overall, the 3D stratigraphic model is successfully applied for: (1) Visualization of geotechnical uncertainty with a classification based on radial distance to the borehole, (2) communication of sub-surface conditions and risk to project stakeholders and (3) efficiently exporting cross-sections as basis for geotechnical analysis.

Contribute to knowledge about risks in implementing green building projects in developing countries: a case of Vietnam

In recent years there has been significant interest in investigating risks linked to the implementation of Green Building (GB) projects that are in line with the developing trend of sustainable construction over the world. In an attempt to contribute to GB risks literature, this study explored risk factors that GB projects frequently confront in Vietnam. This study firstly conducted a comprehensive literature review to generate a preliminary list of risk factors. These risk factors were then confirmed and complemented by interviewing ten experts in the field. After that, the research assessed the risk factors by surveying 119 construction professionals to discover the most critical GB risks. Notably, this paper considered the effect on the risk assessment process of GB experience and project roles. Results showed that “The owner lacks determination,” “Late involvement of GB consultants,” and “Project evaluation result did not reach the expected GB standard” were the top three critical risks in GB projects. The statistical analysis also revealed that the assessment of GB risk negatively correlated with participants’ GB practical experience. Furthermore, hierarchical moderated regression analysis exposed differences in the risk assessment between various project roles, though these differences were relatively small and not statistically significant. By investigating GB projects’ main risks, this paper may become a useful reference guide within the construction sector. This research also enriches the literature by contributing empirical evidence of risk assessment in GB projects in a developing country.

Significance of fault seal in assessing CO 2 storage capacity and containment risks – an example from the Horda Platform, northern North Sea

An understanding of fault seal is crucial for assessing the storage capacity and containment risks of CO 2 storage sites, as it can significantly affect the projects on across-fault and along-fault migration/leakage risk, as well as reservoir pressure predictions. We present a study from the Smeaheia area in the northern Horda Platform offshore Norway, focusing on two fault-bounded structural closures, namely the Alpha and Beta structures. We aim to use this study to improve the geological understanding of the northern Horda Platform for CO 2 storage scale-up potentials and illustrate the importance of fault seal analysis in containment risk assessment and storage capacity evaluation of a CO 2 storage project. Our containment risk assessment shows that the Alpha structure has low fault-related containment risks; thus, it has a potential value to be an additional storage target. The Beta structure shows larger fault-related containment risks due to juxtaposition of the prospective storage aquifer with the basement across the Øygarden Fault System. The storage capacity of Smeaheia will be determined by the long-term dynamic interplay between pressure depletion and recharging. Our study shows that across-fault pressure communication between Smeaheia and the depleting Troll reservoir is likely to be through several relay ramps of the Vette Fault System. However, Smeaheia also shows pressure-recharging potentials, such as through the subcropping areas at the Base Nordland Unconformity. The depletion observed in the newly drilled well 32/4-3S gives a good validation point for our fault seal predictions and provides valuable insights for future dynamic simulations. Thematic collection: This article is part of the Geoscience for CO 2 storage collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/geoscience-for-co2-storage

Project Management Risk Assessment Methodology in the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine

The strategic management in the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, which includes management decisions, is always associated with certain risks due to the high level of uncertainty in the internal and external environments. This totally applies to the decision-making process in project activities. At the same time, each alternative carries a greater or lesser risk of failure, wasted resources, effort and time. In this connection the article considers methodological issues of project management in the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine; a risk assessment model in the implementation of projects has been proposed and the risk impact on success probability of projects has been determined. The project management methodology depends on their scale, timing, location and conditions of implementation. But at all life cycle stages of any project, there will be problems associated with the presence of risks that will affect the project success negatively. One of the ways to reduce the risk in the project activities of organizations is to involve higher educational institutions, where significant scientific potential is concentrated. The article proposes the methodology for risk assessment of projects which are implemented in the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine together with the departmental educational institution which is based on probabilistic-statistical modelling using expert assessment. Taking into account that the activities of each of the project participants are associated with their own group of risks, the article identifies four main groups of risk factors.

High frequency hearing loss detection rate in occupational noise exposed workers in China: a Meta-analysis

Objective: A Meta-analysis was used to evaluate the high frequency hearing loss detection rate, its area and time distributions in occupational noise exposed workers in China to provide evidence for the prevention and control of occupational noise-induced deafness. Methods: From February to April 2020, the number of hearing tests and the number of binaural high frequency average hearing threshold ≥40 dB of workers exposed to noise in key occupational disease monitoring and occupational health risk assessment project in China was collected from China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) , VIP database and PubMed database. The retrieval time was set from the establishment of the database to February 28, 2020. The R 3.6.2 software was used to calculate the pooled high frequency hearing loss detection rate. Results: A total of 28 studies, included 34 data and 1259571 occupational noise exposed workers, were enrolled. The articles covered 16 provinces in 2015-2018. The pooled high frequency hearing loss detection rate in occupational noise exposed workers was 9.45% (95%CI: 7.64%-11.64%) . The high frequency hearing loss detection rate (10.54%) was higher in 2018 than other years (2017: 10.17%, 2016: 9.21%, 2015: 7.88%) . The high frequency hearing loss detection rate (12.23%) was higher in central China than in eastern (10.21%) , western (7.91%) and north-eastern (5.21%) China. Conclusion: The overall high frequency hearing loss detection rate in occupational noise exposed workers is generally high in China. It is important to strengthen the hearing protection in occupational noise exposed workers to facilitate the occupational noise-induced deafness prevention and control in China.

TVR cinemas: film prioritization and negotiation during crisis

Learning outcomes Following are the learning outcomes: recognize the significance of project management as an integrated approach for managing projects in an unprecedented situation. Identify the issues related to managing contemporary projects such as shorter product life cycles, changing customer preferences and last-minute risks. Evaluate the role of sub-domains of project management such as project prioritization, project negotiation, project portfolio system, project risk assessment and management and project stakeholder management. Case overview/synopsis It is the year 2020, and the entire world is struggling to cope up with the crisis caused by the corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic. Normal life has come to a standstill. All industries have realized the significance of developing innovative strategies to move to the new normal situation. This case describes the plight of TVR Cinemas, a business vertical of Tiya Group, which caters to the business of production and distribution of Bollywood and Hollywood movies in India. With the lock-down of the Indian subcontinent, the multiplex business is badly hurt. With new norms of sanitation, social distancing, and a ‘stay home stay safe policy’ the company has to devise new ways to sustain in the market. This case invites students to put themselves in the shoes of the company project manager, Mr. Ramchandani, to provide recommendations about deciding ways to release seven pipe-lined Bollywood movie projects, deciding on the appropriate over-the-top (OTT) partner for tie-ups, and devising strategic steps to recover the reputation of the company by launching an OTT platform themselves. Complexity academic level The case is useful for introducing basics of project management along with decision making for projects in an uncertain situation. This case can be used for the students of undergraduate/postgraduate/executive level across the modules of project management/project risk management and negotiation management. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS 9: Operations and logistics.