Risk Assessment Of Natural Disasters Research Articles

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Urban Natural Disasters a Theoretical Framework

Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Urban Natural Disasters a Theoretical Framework

Risk assessment and comparison of regional natural disasters in China using clustering

Natural disaster that contributes to the economic crisis all over the world has a crucial role in emergency management. The assessment of regional risk to natural disasters is normally studied as a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem in the literature. However little effort was devoted into the comparison of temporary disaster risk of regions. In this paper, a hybrid approach is proposed integrating MCDM and clustering for evaluating and comparing the regional risk to natural disasters. Our two-stage method is applied to thirty-one Chinese regions over the past two consecutive years. In the first stage MCDM is used to prioritize the regions yearly yielding a set of risk vectors over the given period. In the second stage, K-means clustering is applied to divide the regions into a number of clusters characterized by different risk variation patterns. The derived patterns reveal the variation of regions in perspective of natural disaster risk and therefore offer valuable suggestions for disaster risk reduction.

Information diffusion-based risk assessment of natural disasters along the Silk Road Economic Belt in China

Abstract The Belt and Road Initiative launched by China has attracted considerable attention. However, little attention has been paid to the risk assessment of natural disasters for rons along the route. Due to the frequency of disasters and harsh natural environment, areas along with the Silk Road Economic Belt are vulnerable to natural disasters. In this study, an evaluation model is proposed involving evaluation indicators, the relative damage calculation and information diffusion theory. The risk of natural disasters including flood, drought, convective storm, and low temperature is respectively assessed by this model. As a result, it is found that the probability of natural disasters is negatively correlated with the relative damage, and the higher the relative damage, the lower the risk probability. Besides, drought has the greatest impact on crop yield among the studying areas, followed by flood. Although the impact of convective storm and low temperature is not as large as the flood and drought, they also occur frequently and cannot be ignored. Furthermore, the empirical studies from Sent Viet Nam and Philippines have demonstrated that our model can be applied into other countries along the Belt and Road to make the risk assessment.

台风灾害下海岸带城市社会-生态系统脆弱性评估——大数据视角

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 台风灾害下海岸带城市社会-生态系统脆弱性评估——大数据视角 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201808101709 作者: 作者单位: 厦门大学环境与生态学院,厦门大学环境与生态学院,厦门大学环境与生态学院,厦门大学环境与生态学院 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0502904）；厦门大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目（103842017103） Vulnerability assessment of urban socio-ecological systems in coastal zones under the influence of typhoons:Big data perspective Author: Affiliation: Xiamen University,,, Fund Project: The National Key Research and Development Program (2016YFC0502904);The innovation and entrepreneurship training program for undergraduates of Xiamen University (103842017103) 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:2016年莫兰蒂台风对厦门城市社会-生态系统造成重创，该系统在灾害影响下的脆弱性成为亟待研究的重要问题。基于新浪微博平台进行大数据挖掘，结合统计年鉴及空间基础数据，建立台风灾害影响下基于暴露-敏感-应对-恢复力体系的海岸带城市社会-生态系统脆弱性指标体系，评估灾前灾后台风对厦门不同地区的影响；同时根据微博大数据的定位信息，对不同受灾信息进行灾情跟踪及分析，结果表明，在本次台风灾害中思明、湖里区表现出的脆弱性较低，而海沧、集美区表现出的脆弱性较高，主要是由于思明、湖里区的应对能力明显高于其他各区，从大数据显示的恢复情况来看，除海沧区外，其他三区在电力方面的恢复速度都较为迅速。研究成果能够为台风灾害背景下的城市脆弱性评价提供新的方法与技术，为灾前防治、灾后恢复提供决策参考。 Abstract:With the increase in the intensity and frequency of natural disasters, the risk and loss assessment of urban natural disasters and the construction of an urban security pattern are becoming more important. Based on social media data from the Sina microblogging platform, statistical yearbook data, and using the ArcGIS software, this study establishes a typhoon disaster vulnerability index for the rapid assessment of the impact of Typhoon "Meranti" on different districts of Xiamen at different stages. The location of a specific microblog information from the microblogging platform is used to track and analyze disaster information. The results show that when facing a typhoon disaster, the Siming and Huli District showed relatively low vulnerability, while Haicang and Jimei District showed higher vulnerability, which is mainly due to the quick response of local government and civil society organization in Siming and Huli District. From a perspective of recovery, except for the Haicang District, the speed of recovery of power in the other districts is relatively rapid. This study provides a new method and technology for the evaluation of typhoon disaster vulnerability, decision reference for pre-disaster control, and post-disaster recovery. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Application of the hidden Markov model in a dynamic risk assessment of rainstorms in Dalian, China

Disaster risk evolves spatially and temporally due to the combined dynamics of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. However, most previous risk assessments of natural disasters were static and typically based on historical disaster events. Dynamic risk assessments are required to effectively reduce risks and prevent future losses. Based on rainstorm disaster data and meteorological information collected in Dalian, China, from 1976 to 2015, the hidden Markov model (HMM) was used to detect inter-annual changes in rainstorm disaster risks. An independent sample test was conducted to assess the reliability of the HMM in dynamic risk assessments. The dynamic rainstorm risk in Dalian was simulated based on the observation probability matrix, which characterized the relationship dependence between rainstorm hazard and risk, and the probability matrix of state transition, which reflected the probability of changes for the risk level. High rainstorm risk was associated with high-hazard rainstorms and continuously appeared with little probability in several successive years. The reliability applied the HMM to simulate the rainstorm disaster risk was approximately 67% in the dynamic risk assessment. Additionally, the rainstorm disaster risk in Dalian is predicted to be at a medium-risk level in 2017, with a probability of 0.685. Our findings suggest that the HMM can be effectively used in the dynamic risk assessment of natural disasters. Notably, future risk levels can be predicted using the current hazard level and the HMM.

THE ROLE OF THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT IN PROTECTION FROM NATURAL DISASTERS AND OTHER FORMS OF HAZARDS IN SERBIA

The process of emergency management, starting from risk assessment of natural disasters and other hazards, through taking measures of prevention, protection and rescue, mitigation and restoration, should not be seen as burden on society, but rather as a factor of development. The dangers and accidents do not only take human lives, but inflict enormous, often irreparable damage that weakens the material power of the state and individuals, and can cause long-term problems to whole society. In that context, it is essential that the state influences the reduction of risks and dangers, increases the importance of participation and effectiveness of resources and capacities engaged in the process of emergency management, and thus, at the same time contributes to the security and development of whole society.The paper deals with the problems related to the development of vulnerability assessment from natural disasters as one of the tasks of the local government in the emergency management. After the risks at the local community have been assessed, it is possible to have an insight into the available technical and human capacity in the local community and, based on the given situation and in accordance with the law, make protection and rescue plans.

Risks of the German Power Supply System

The German power supply system is experiencing a phase of radical change. The insurance industry designed this transformation not only as a property insurance donor, but also as an institutional investor. The emphasis of this commitment is based on their own assessment of the risks to which this supply system has been exposed. This study compares risk assessment designs from the insurance industry with that from technical network managers and shows in which the assessments significantly differ. For example, the insurance company’s risk assessment of natural disasters and cyber-attacks is much greater in terms of probability of occurrence and the potential of damage than the assessment of energy experts.

English

Risk assessment of natural and other disasters in the Republic of Serbia is defined using special methodology. This paper presents a model of improving the existing methodology by using a new generation of fuzzy logic systems (fuzzy logic systems of type 2). This type of fuzzy logic systems is a significant improvement of the existing fuzzy logic systems of type 1. Fuzzy logic systems type 2 are based on the application of new interval fuzzy numbers that consider undetermined relative to classic fuzzy numbers in a better way. The fuzzy logic system presented in this paper translates vagueness and uncertainty, those that accompany risk assessment of natural disasters and other catastrophes, into an algorithm. This kind of algorithm makes the difference between data that are absolutely correct and those less accurate, those that clearly fit in the defined evaluation scales and those that are on the limit of values and so on. This kind of a model can help decisionmakers who conduct risk assessment of natural and other disasters since it is rather easy to use and does not require prior knowledge. Thereby, the existing methodology is used as a cornerstone in the developed model. Also, the model is significant for persons engaged in decision-making in other areas because it is a method that has not been extensively applied in science and practice, and whose development is at the beginning.

Scenario-based risk framework selection and assessment model development for natural disasters: a case study of typhoon storm surges

Many studies have revealed the importance of risk assessment of natural disasters for public safety management, emergency responses and insurance purchases. This paper focuses on three aspects of a risk assessment process: (1) comparing the existing risk frameworks and assessment methods, (2) conceptualizing a scenario-based risk analysis approach and (3) specifying a quantitative assessment model. After a close examination of relevant research, we selected the triad of Hazard, Vulnerability and Adaptation Capability as the risk framework for the present study. We also prescribed several scenarios based on the spatiotemporal dynamic environment leading to given disasters. The assessment model is tested with six scenarios of typhoon storm surges striking Yuhuan County in Zhejiang Province, China. Three findings are highlighted in this paper. First, scenario-based simulation has become a dominant approach in risk analysis under the circumstances where disasters of high intensity, complexity and variability tend to occur frequently. This approach allows identification of acceptable risk with a certain probability. Second, the assessment model can reveal the collective enhancing effect of Hazard and Vulnerability and the mitigation effect of Adaptation Capability to the comprehensive risk. Lastly, the empirical study of Yuhuan indicates that R = 0.90 × H × V − 0.10 × C is the most feasible model for assessing the risk of typhoon storm surges. In general, the proposed methodology may be adapted for risk analysis of diverse disaster scenarios.

An Integrated Approach for Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Using Cloud Computing

An Integrated Approach for Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Using Cloud Computing

Remote Sensing Contributions to Prediction and Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Caused by Large-Scale Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks

Remotely sensed vegetation measurements for the last 30 years combined with other climate data sets such as rainfall and sea surface temperatures have come to play an important role in the study of the ecology of arthropod-borne diseases. We show that epidemics and epizootics of previously unpredictable Rift Valley fever (RVF) are directly influenced by large-scale flooding associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This flooding affects the ecology of disease transmitting arthropod vectors through vegetation development and other bioclimatic factors. This information is now utilized to monitor, model, and map areas of potential RVF outbreaks and is used as an early warning system for risk reduction of outbreaks to human and animal health, trade, and associated economic impacts. The continuation of such satellite measurements is critical to anticipating, preventing, and managing disease epidemics and epizootics and other climate-related disasters.

Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP

On the basis of the disaster system theory and comprehensive analysis of flood risk factors, including the hazard of the disaster-inducing factors and disaster-breeding environment, as well as the vulnerability of the hazards-bearing bodies, the primary risk assessment index system of flood diversion district as well as its assessment standards were established. Then, a new model for comprehensive flood risk assessment was put forward in this paper based on set pair analysis (SPA) and variable fuzzy sets (VFS) theory, named set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model (SPA-VFS), which determines the relative membership degree function of VFS by using SPA method and has the advantages of intuitionist course, simple calculation and good generality application. Moreover, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was combined with trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to calculate the weights of assessment indices, thus the weights for flood hazard and flood vulnerability were determined by the fuzzy AHP procedure, respectively. Then SPA-VFS were applied to calculate the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with rank feature value equation and the confidence criterion, respectively. Under the natural disasters risk expression recommended by the Humanitarian Affairs Department of United Nations, flood risk grades were achieved from the flood hazard grades and flood vulnerability grades with risk grade classification matrix, where flood hazard, flood vulnerability and flood risk were all classified into five grades as very low, low, medium, high and very high. Consequently, integrated flood risk maps could be carried out for flood risk management and decision-making. Finally, SPA-VFS and fuzzy AHP were employed for comprehensive flood risk assessment of Jingjiang flood diversion district in China, and the computational results demonstrate that SPA-VFS is reasonable, reliable and applicable, thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk assessment, and moreover has potential to be applicable to comprehensive risk assessment of other natural disasters with no much modification.

Community-based scenario modelling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging

Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes. This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research, which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China. As an example, we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing’an District of Shanghai. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods. Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure, we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments. A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach, including an urban terrain model, an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model, was applied to simulate inundation area and depth. Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys, which were further applied to analyse vulnerability, exposure and loss assessment. Finally, the exceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities. A framework was also developed for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss. This is a new exploration for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.

A methodology for estimating time-of-day variations in the size of a population exposed to risk.

Consequence models for the risk assessment of man-made or natural disasters do not ordinarily take into account time-of-day variations in the size of the exposed population. Residential census population statistics are used instead. This paper proposes and illustrates a methodology for using metropolitan travel survey data to estimate the variations in question. Variations are computed from the Washington, D.C. area sample survey statistics on the number of trips taken in and out of different census tracts throughout each workday. Four principal patterns of population variation are identified, corresponding to four types of land use: commercial, residential, shopping/entertainment, and mixed use. Some general implications for consequence analysis are discussed.