Construction Project Risk Assessment Research Articles

The Analysis and Application of AHP in a Construction Project Evaluation

Construction project is a large investment, high-profit industry, with great risks. In this paper, we using combination of theory and engineering method, according to the principle of AHP (The Analytic Hierarchy Process), by constructing a judgment matrix, sort calculation, consistency test and other processes to analysis and evaluation the risks. In many alternative engineering solutions to choose the best solution for construction, and then provide a reference on method of construction project selection and risk assessment and risk control in the applications, ultimately achieve the purpose of reducing losses on risks.

The Analysis and Application of AHP in a Construction Project Evaluation

Construction project is a large investment, high-profit industry, with great risks. In this paper, we using combination of theory and engineering method, according to the principle of AHP (The Analytic Hierarchy Process), by constructing a judgment matrix, sort calculation, consistency test and other processes to analysis and evaluation the risks. In many alternative engineering solutions to choose the best solution for construction, and then provide a reference on method of construction project selection and risk assessment and risk control in the applications, ultimately achieve the purpose of reducing losses on risks.

Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy in Project Risk Management - New Stadium Construction Project in Weifang City

In the field of engineering and construction, unqualified construction quality, time delays, cost more than expected phenomena to occur. Because of these characteristics such as its large-scale construction projects, long cycle, the production of single and complex, there is greater risk than the production of general products, the risk increases the difficulty of construction project management, operating costs and the possibility of potential losses, therefore, risk management emerged and become an increasingly important integral part of project management. In this paper, fuzzy analytic hierarchy be used to construction project risk assessment, and to order the sort of each risk in order to prevent significant risks. On an actual project - the new stadium construction in Weifang City risk management case study, the reduction of risk of project failure is expected, but also the project is hoped for other industries to provide some reference for risk management.

Identification of Risk Paths in International Construction Projects Using Structural Equation Modeling

The major aim of this research is to demonstrate that causal relationships exist among various risk factors that necessitate identification of risk paths, rather than individual risk factors, during risk assessment of construction projects. International construction projects have more complex risk-emergence patterns because they are affected by global and foreign country conditions and project-related factors. Identification of a network of interactive risk paths, each of which initiated from diverse vulnerabilities of the project system, is considered to be a better reflection of the real conditions of construction projects than the use of generic risk checklists. In this study, using the data from 166 projects carried out by Turkish contractors in international markets and utilizing structural equation modeling (SEM) techniques, 36 interrelated risk paths were identified and the total effects of each vulnerability factor and risk path on cost overrun were assessed. SEM findings demonstrate that every r...

Risk Assessment for Construction Projects Contracting Based on Unascertained Sets

This paper utilizes unascertained sets to analyze general contracting risk of construction projects. Firstly, principal component method was used to process a number of listed general contracting risk indices. The representative indices from principal component analysis process substitute for the primary indexes. Thus subjective random problem in choosing indices can be avoided. Then, risk factor weights are qualitatively described with information entropy, and the qualitative results are transformed to quantities value and the result of evaluation is worked out by using unascertained number algorithm. Thirdly, Using the theory and method of unascertained measure, a novel unascertained C-means clustering model and the clustering weight ale established to determine the degrees of the risk of general contracting. Finally, a case study was carried out on the risk assessment of sample projects using the prototype. The results show that unascertained sets can help understand the uncertainties in construction contracting risk assessment, and the relationships between risk sources and the consequences on project performance measures can be identified and quantified consistently.

Environmental Risk Identification of Port Construction Project

Abstract During the period of construction and operation of construction projects, the predictable unexpected events or accidents may happened to make toxic, flammable and explosive materials leak, or produce new toxic and harmful substances, which impact and damage human safety and environment. Environmental risk assessment of construction project can evaluate the impact and damage, and put forward preventive, emergency and mitigation measures. Environmental risk assessment is an important content in that of port construction project, whose foundation is environmental risk identification. In this paper, taking port construction project as an example, the methods, contents and processes of environmental risk identification in the assessment of environment impact are discussed.

Cost Risk Assessment of Construction Projects Based on Entropy-Weighted Matter-Element Model

As modern projects are getting increasingly complicated in the changeable environment, the risk in cost faced by construction enterprises increase. Therefore it is necessary to analyze all sorts of cost risks to guide decision-making. A entropy-weighted matter-element model for assessment of cost risk is established in the article, and an example is used to explain that the model makes a good application.

Https://journals.vgtu.lt/index.php/JCEM/article/view/5898

The paper presents risk assessment of construction projects. The assessment is based on the multi‐attribute decision‐making methods. The risk evaluation attributes are selected taking into consideration the interests and goals of the stakeholders as well as factors that have influence on the construction process efficiency and real estate value. Ranking of objects and determination of their optimality are determined by applying TOPSIS grey and COPRAS‐G methods with attributes values determined at intervals. A background and a description of the proposed model are provided and key findings of the analysis are presented. Santrauka Straipsnyje vertinama statybos projektu rizika. Vertinimas pagristas ivairiais daugiatikslio vertinimo metodais. Rizikos vertinimo rodikliai atrenkami, atsižvelgiant i suinteresuotu šaliu interesus, tikslus ir veiksnius, kurie turi itakos statybos proceso efektyvumui ir nekilnojamojo turto vertes didinimui. Projektai surikiuoti pagal naudinguma, nustatyti santykiniai ju optimalumo dydžiai. Uždavinio modeliui aprašyti ir jam išspresti taikomi TOPSIS grey ir COPRAS‐G metodai. Projektu savybes aprašomos efektyvumo rodikliu reikšmemis, apibrežiamomis intervaluose. Straipsnyje aprašomas taikomas modelis, atlikta uždavinio analize ir pateikiamos trumpos išvados.

Risk assessment and model for community-based construction projects in Zambia

The involvement of local communities in infrastructure development minimizes costs compared to conventional construction modes and also instils a sense of responsibility in the community to look after the constructed infrastructure. It also helps governments in developing countries like Zambia to meet the challenges in the provision of infrastructure to improve the social-economic well being of citizens. However, the involvement of local communities introduces a number of risks during the execution of projects as the individuals involved may not be conversant with construction and the procedures involved in the procurement processes of projects. The consequences of not assessing and managing construction risks are that projects may experience time and cost overruns and lead to poor quality structures. It, therefore, becomes necessary to systematically manage uncertainty in community-based construction in order to increase the likelihood of meeting project objectives using necessary risk management strategies. Risk management, which is an iterative process due to the dynamic nature of many risks, follows three main steps that may be repeated throughout the construction phase of a project and include risk identification, response development and control. This paper discusses and highlights the results of a study that identified risks involved in the procurement of community-based infrastructure projects in Zambia. A risk assessment model (RAM) developed during the study and recommended for adoption in community-based projects is also presented.Keywords: Community-based Construction, Risk Assessment, Risk Management

A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment

The increasing complexity and dynamism of construction projects have imposed substantial uncertainties and subjectivities in the risk analysis process. Most of the real-world risk analysis problems contain a mixture of quantitative and qualitative data; therefore quantitative risk assessment techniques are inadequate for prioritizing risks. This article presents a risk assessment methodology based on the Fuzzy Sets Theory, which is an effective tool to deal with subjective judgement, and on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is used to structure a large number of risks. The proposed methodology incorporates knowledge and experience acquired from many experts, since they carry out the risks identification and their structuring, and also the subjective judgements of the parameters which are considered to assess the overall risk factor: risk impact, risk probability and risk discrimination. All of these factors are expressed by qualitative scales which are defined by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to capture the vagueness in the linguistic variables. The most notable differences with other fuzzy risk assessment methods are the use of an algorithm to handle the inconsistencies in the fuzzy preference relation when pair-wise comparison judgements are necessary, and the use of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers until the defuzzification step. An illustrative example on risk assessment of a rehabilitation project of a building is used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

Risk assessment of international construction projects using the analytic network process

In this study, an analytic network process (ANP), which can handle the interrelations between risk related factors, is proposed as a reliable technique for measuring the level of risk associated with international construction projects. Within this context, ANP is used to derive the relative priorities of risk factors as an input to a decision support tool, which can be utilized during bidding decisions. The decision support tool may help a decision maker to estimate the level of risk so that alternative projects may be ranked with respect to their risk levels and appropriate contingency values may be defined after a bid decision is given. The tool has a database in which risk information of the rated projects can be stored for future use. The reliability of the tool was tested on eight real cases and satisfactory results were achieved in estimating the risk level.

Identification and Initial Risk Assessment of Construction Projects in Poland

This paper presents an analysis of the Polish construction market with examples of project risk assessment taking into consideration one of the biggest markets in Central Europe. The writer has conducted research in identification and quantification of construction risks based on the Polish market that has developed considerably since joining the European Union. The risk analysis consists of verbal and quantitative description. The specification of risk indicators is directly linked to the Polish construction market and the writer has provided examples for applying the risk assessment process in construction projects. A summary of the analysis is presented in the final part of the paper.

Application of a fuzzy based decision making methodology to construction project risk assessment

The increasing complexity and dynamics of construction projects have plagued the construction industry with substantial hazards and losses. Project risk management, therefore, has been recognised critical for the construction industry to improve their performance and secure the success of projects. Risk magnitude may be assessed by considering two parameters: risk likelihood and risk severity. However, there are many possible risk factors in construction, which lead to a project failure and these risk factors should be incorporated into the evaluation process. Factor index is therefore introduced to structure and evaluate these factors and integrate them into the decision making process of risk assessment. This article presents a risk assessment methodology to cope with risks in complicated construction situations. The application of fuzzy reasoning techniques provides an effective tool to handle the uncertainties and subjectivities arising in the construction process. A modified analytical hierarchy process is used to structure and prioritize diverse risk factors. Finally, an illustrative example on risk analysis of steel erection of the superstructure in a shopping centre is used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results indicate that by using the proposed methodology the risks associated with steel erection can be assessed effectively and efficiently.

An analytic hierarchy process based model for risk and opportunity assessment of international construction projects

Risk assessment of international projects is a complicated task because of the sensitivity of project success related to country specific risks as well as project risks. Decision makers face the difficulty of weighing project opportunities against risks and determining attractiveness of projects while giving bidding decisions. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for risk and opportunity assessment of international projects. The proposed model uses an analytic hierarchy process for calculation of risk and opportunity ratings. A risk breakdown structure, specific to international construction projects, is proposed as well as a list of factors that affect the ability of construction companies to manage risk. An application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by using real data supplied by a construction company that is experienced in international markets. Ranking of project options is made according to the opportunity and risk ratings that are calculated by using the proposed methodology based on the judgments of company professionals.Key words: international construction, risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process.

A risk assessment methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts

Abstract This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts into conventional risk assessment frameworks. This paper also introduces new forms of fuzzy membership curves, designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both probabilistic parameter estimates and subjective judgments, since it is often difficult or even impossible to precisely estimate the occurrence rate of an event in terms of one single crisp probability. It is to be noted that simple linguistic variables such as ‘High/Low’ and ‘Good/Bad’ have the limitations in quantifying the various risks inherent in construction projects, but only represent subjective mental cognition adequately. Therefore, in this paper, the statements that include some quantification with giving specific value or scale, such as ‘Close to any value’ or ‘Higher/Lower than analyzed value’, are used in order to get over the limitations. It may be stated that the proposed methodology will be very useful for the systematic and rational risk assessment of construction projects.

A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and analysis: construction project risk management system

The construction industry is plagued by risk, and poor performance has often been the result. Although risk management techniques have been applied, the lack of a formalised approach has produced inconsistent results. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure is described to represent a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. The relationships between risk factors, risks, and their consequences are represented on case and effect diagrams. Risk descriptions and their consequences can be defined using descriptive linguistic variables. Using fuzzy approximation and composition, the relationships between risk sources and the consequences on project performance measures can be identified and quantified consistently.

A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic

The construction industry is plagued by risk and often has suffered poor performance as a result. There are a number of risk management techniques available to help alleviate this, but usually these are based on operational research techniques developed in the 1960s, and for the most part have failed to meet the needs of project managers. In this paper, a hierarchical risk breakdown structure representation is used to develop a formal model for qualitative risk assessment. A common language for describing risks is presented which includes terms for quantifying likelihoods and impacts so as to achieve consistent quantification. The relationships between risk factors, risks and their consequences are represented on cause and effect diagrams. These diagrams and the concepts of fuzzy association and fuzzy composition are applied to identify relationships between risk sources and the consequences for project performance measures. A methodology for evaluating the risk exposure, considering the consequences in terms of time, cost, quality, and safety performance measures of a project based on fuzzy estimates of the risk components is presented.