Modified Risk Assessment Research Articles

An Integrated Approach for the Simulation Modeling and Risk Assessment of Coastal Flooding

The evaluation of storm surge flood risk is vital to disaster management and planning at national, regional and local levels, particularly in coastal areas that are affected more severely by storm surges. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new method that includes two modules for the simulation modeling and risk assessment of coastal flooding. One is a hydrodynamic module for simulating the process of the flood inundation coastal inundation arising from storm surge, which is based on a cellular automata (CA) model. The other is a risk assessment module for quantitatively estimating the economic loss by using the inundation data and land use data. The coastal areas of Pearl River estuary in China were taken as a case study. Simulation results are compared to experimental results from MIKE 21 and depth data from a social-media-based dataset, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the CA model. By analyzing flood risk, the flood area and the direct economic losses predicted are close to the actual case incurred, further demonstrating the computational reliability of the proposed method. Additionally, an automatic risk assessment platform is designed by integrating the two modules in a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework, facilitating a more efficient and faster simulation of coastal flooding. The platform can provide the governments as well as citizens of coastal areas with user-friendly, real-time graphics for coastal flood disaster preparation, warning, response and recovery.

Central threat register – a complex system for risk analysis and decision support in railway transport

Risk management is an important element in the operations of each organisation. In order to provide active support of risk analysis and decision making processes, a system was developed, called Central Threat Register. The goal of the system is to collect information about events and threats in the area of railway transport and to support the system users in risk analysis and decision making. The presented system complies with European and Polish requirements for railway transport. It consists of the following basic modules: knowledge base module, data exchange and anonymisation module, threat and risk assessment module, and decision support module. In addition, this study features two cases of the system's application: an analysis pertaining to preventing railway traction breaks due to icing and analysis regarding the prevention of train collisions.

Development of a Risk Assessment Module for Bridge Management Systems in New Jersey

Bridges are critical for the mobility of our society and its economic growth. Available funds for bridge repair, maintenance, and rehabilitation are limited. The Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) introduced several new parameters for improving the management of bridge assets, such as bridge element evaluation, life-cycle analysis, and risk-based performance indicators. Risk-based methods account for the uncertainties embedded into engineering variables and long-term evaluations. The objective of this paper is to identify, assess, and quantify structural risk components to bridges using probabilistic risk methodologies and data from the National Bridge Inventory database. The aim is to simplify the implementation of risk-based ranking procedures into bridge management system packages according to the MAP-21 vision. Therefore, machine learning techniques are employed to facilitate the introduction of probabilistic risk methods into bridge management systems. The procedure is described for seven hazards that are pertinent to bridges in New Jersey: overloading, fatigue, seismic, flooding, scour, vehicle and vessel collision. Risk values are computed in monetary terms to homogenize the comparison among bridges for different hazards. The analysis is performed on 5,534 bridges, showing that seismic events and fatigue resulting from truck overloading are the most dominant hazards in New Jersey, for which about 97.0% and 29.0% of bridges show some level of risk. The main limitation of the proposed framework is the lack of accurate data from bridge inventories necessary to thoroughly perform a fully structural probabilistic analysis of bridges and to minimize engineering judgment.

Multi-mode collision avoidance closed-loop control system

Autonomous vehicles are a research area of active interest. Collision avoidance system (CAS) is one of the central concerns to provide security protection for autonomous vehicles. This paper proposes a multi-mode collision avoidance system (mCAS), which combines a trajectory prediction module, a risk assessment module and a motion planning module into the closed-loop system. At each step, the trajectory prediction module predicts the trajectories of the vehicle and surrounding vehicles. The risk assessment model calculates the collision probability and chooses reasonable control mode. Then the motion planning module designs the desired deceleration profile based on it. The car takes the first step of the planned deceleration and repeats this cycle, achieving closed-loop control. The mCAS is tested in a closed-loop simulation setup and the results show that the proposed mCAS is of good effectiveness and feasibility, which can significantly reduce collision probability as well as false alarms.

Multi-mode collision avoidance closed-loop control system

Autonomous vehicles are a research area of active interest. Collision avoidance system (CAS) is one of the central concerns to provide security protection for autonomous vehicles. This paper proposes a multi-mode collision avoidance system (mCAS), which combines a trajectory prediction module, a risk assessment module and a motion planning module into the closed-loop system. At each step, the trajectory prediction module predicts the trajectories of the vehicle and surrounding vehicles. The risk assessment model calculates the collision probability and chooses reasonable control mode. Then the motion planning module designs the desired deceleration profile based on it. The car takes the first step of the planned deceleration and repeats this cycle, achieving closed-loop control. The mCAS is tested in a closed-loop simulation setup and the results show that the proposed mCAS is of good effectiveness and feasibility, which can significantly reduce collision probability as well as false alarms.

The Application of Epidemiology for Categorising DNS Cyber Risk Factors

This Epidemiology can be applied to cybersecurity as a novel approach for analysing and detecting cyber threats and their risks. It provides a systematic model for the analysis of likelihood, consequence, management, and prevention measures to examine malicious behaviours like disease. There are a few research studies in discrete cybersecurity risk factors; however, there is a significant research gap on the analysis of collective cyber risk factors and measuring their cyber risk impacts. Effective cybersecurity risk management requires the identification and estimation of the probability of infection, based on a comprehensive range of historical and environmental factors, including human behaviour and technology characteristics. This paper explores how an epidemiological principle can be applied to identify cybersecurity risk factors. These risk factors comprise both human and machine behaviours profiled as risk factors. This paper conducts a preliminary analysis of the relationships between these risk factors utilising Domain Name System (DNS) data sources. The experimental results indicated that the epidemiological principle can effectively examine and estimate cyber risk factors. The proposed principle has a great potential in enhancing new machine learning-enabled intrusion detection solutions by utilising this principle as a risk assessment module of the solutions.

Geochemical Fractions of the Agricultural Soils of Southern Poland and the Assessment of the Potentially Harmful Element Mobility

Surface samples (0–25 cm each) of agricultural soils were investigated in five Regions (voivodeships) of southern Poland. The mean Potentially Harmful Element (PHE) pseudototal content ranges were as follows (mg/kg): As 5.19–10.9, Cd 0.34–1.56, Co 1.92–6.70, Cr 9.05–25.7, Cu 8.74–69.4, Hg 0.001–0.08, Ni 3.93–19.9, Pb 20.3–183, Sb 0.80–1.42, Tl 0.04–0.17, and Zn 61.3–422. The PHE availability depended on pH, the organic carbon (Corg) content, and the pseudototal PHE content in soils. Exchangeable and acid soluble PHE contents (BCRF1) determined in the Community Bureau of Reference (BCR) three-step sequential extraction procedure decreased in this order: Cd > Zn > Co > Ni = Sb > Cu > Tl > As > Cr = Pb. Actually available PHE contents in pore water (0.01 mol/dm3 CaCl2) ranged as follows: Cd 0.81–17%, Cr 0–0.25%, Cu 0.01–2.31%, Ni 0.16–2%, Pb 0.2–0.49%, and Zn 0.25–2.12%. The potential soluble total content of PHEs in pore water (0.05 mol/dm3 Na2EDTA) ranged as follows: Cd 27–91%, Cr 0.7–7.1%, Cu 6.7–98%, Ni 3.6–41%, Pb 15–41%, and Zn 3–34%. The mobility factor (MF) values indicated Cd (31.6%) and Zn (21.0%) as the most mobile elements in soil. Other PHEs followed the order of Co > Ni > Tl > As > Sb > Cu > Cr > Pb, with the MF values <10%. The risk assessment code (RAC) values revealed a very high ecological risk of Cd and Zn in the Podkarpackie Region and a high ecological risk of Cd in the Regions of Opolskie, Śląskie, Małopolskie, and Podkarpackie, and the same of Zn in the Opolskie and Śląskie. The modified risk assessment code (mRAC) index pointed a very high potential of adverse effects in soils in the Podkarpackie and a medium potential in the Opolskie, Śląskie, Małopolskie, and Świętokrzyskie. The potential adverse effect risk, described by the individual contamination factor (ICF) factor, was the following in the Regions, in the decreasing order: Cd > Pb > Sb > Zn > Co > Cu > Ni > Tl > As > Cr, and the same as described by the global contamination factor (GCF) values: Opolskie > Podkarpackie > Świętokrzyskie > Śląskie > Małopolskie.

ASO Author Reflections: Incidence of Venous Thromboembolism in Korea and the Need for a Modified Risk Assessment Model.

ASO Author Reflections: Incidence of Venous Thromboembolism in Korea and the Need for a Modified Risk Assessment Model.

Pathologist second opinion significantly alters clinical management of pT1 endoscopically resected colorectal cancer.

We retrospectively collected a series of 82 endoscopically removed early colorectal cancers. Histological specimens were revised by two gastrointestinal pathologists, performing a re-evaluation of all risk factors for lymph node metastasis. The comparison between second opinion and first pathological report revealed that lymphovascular invasion and tumor grading showed a lower level of concordance than other parameters. Our results demonstrated that second opinion modified risk assessment in about 10% of cases. It was mainly due to a lack in reporting of some parameters at the first diagnosis and a different evaluation in second opinion for updated guidelines. Considering the subgroup of patients with modified risk assessment, clinical data revealed that tumors, re-classified as low risk, did not develop lymph node metastasis that, conversely, occurred in patients identified as high risk by second opinion. In conclusion, second opinion significantly alters risk perception of endoscopically removed early colorectal carcinomas representing a valuable tool for their appropriate clinical management.

Structural complexity but not territory sizes influences flight initiation distance in a damselfish

The fear of predators can lead to behavioral changes in their prey, but animals must trade off defensive behavior against other compelling needs. For territorial species, responding to predators may be especially costly, because defense and escape are mutually incompatible. A growing literature documents risk assessment in fish, but a few studies have focused on extremely territorial fish, and nothing is known about how territory size, territorial interactions, habitat structural complexity, and life stage may modify risk assessment. We studied this in a damselfish (Stegastes fuscus) on coral reefs and measured risk assessment using flight initiation distance (FID). We found that only structural complexity explained variation in FID; fish in more complex habitats tolerated closer approach. Our study suggests that individuals in relatively more structurally complex territories are bolder than those that occur in less complex territories. Documenting the relative importance of these variables is important, because antipredator behavior influences not only the predator–prey relationship, but can also generate cascading effects, and influence the structure of the community and potentially entire ecosystems.

Flood control operation coupled with risk assessment for cascade reservoirs

A flood hazard is one of the most common and destructive natural disasters. Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the primary goal for flood management. This paper proposes an approach to improve the flood control operation for cascade reservoirs by minimizing flood control risk. A framework of reservoir flood control operation coupled with risk assessment (RFCORA) and the corresponding RFCORA model are proposed to reduce risk. The model contains three sub-modules. A real-time reservoir flood control operation simulation module is developed, in which a flood discharge control chart is used to determine the flood magnitude, and flood release is obtained by operation rules. Entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied to assess the risk level in the flood risk assessment module. Finally, the flood release is updated according to the developed outflow adjustment optimization module aimed at minimizing flood control risk by combing future inflow information. In addition, another model without outflow adjustment optimization is set to be a comparative experiment. The water system of the Upper Yellow River is selected as a case study to verify the model. The results show that the framework and RFCORA model developed in this paper can decrease the time duration in the highest risk level without increasing the maximum water level and maximum outflow of reservoirs. The approach proposed in this paper based on flood control operation and flood risk assessment can be extended to flood mitigation in other water systems in similar situations.

Speciation, Distribution and Risk Assessment of Metals in Sediments from a Water Body Replenished by Effluent from a Wastewater Treatment Plant.

To assess the status and risk of metal pollution in landscape water body replenished by wastewater treatment plant effluent, the distribution of metals in sediments from three regions [regulation pond (RP), wetland lake (WL), and main lake (ML)] of Harbor Lake, Tianjin, China, was characterized. Higher levels of all metals (except Cr and Pb) were observed in RP sediments. As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn were mainly bound to organic matter and sulfide (F3) and residual fractions (F4), while the exchangeable and carbonate fraction (F1) and Fe/Mn oxide fraction (F2) were the dominant forms for Cd. Additionally, finding showed that the overall risk of sediments in aquatic systems was affected by both metal toxicity and metal fractionation. Thus, according to a modified risk assessment code (RAC), the potential adverse effect of metals in sediments was medium (although As, Cd, Ni, and Zn had high mobility risks based on the RAC), decreasing in the order RP > WL > ML.

Collision Avoidance/Mitigation System: Motion Planning of Autonomous Vehicle via Predictive Occupancy Map

Despite development efforts toward autonomous vehicle technologies, the number of collisions and driver interventions of autonomous vehicles tested in California seems to be reaching a plateau. One of the main reasons for this is the lack of defensive driving functionality; i.e. emergency collision avoidance when other human drivers make mistakes. In this paper, a collision avoidance/mitigation system (CAMS) is proposed to rapidly evaluate risks associated with all surrounding vehicles and to maneuver the vehicle into a safer region when faced with critically dangerous situations. First, a risk assessment module, namely, predictive occupancy map (POM), is proposed to compute potential risks associated with surrounding vehicles based on relative position, velocity, and acceleration. Then, the safest trajectory with the lowest risk level is selected among the 12 local trajectories through the POM. To ensure stable and successful collision avoidance of the ego-vehicle, the lateral and longitudinal acceleration profiles are planned while considering the vehicle stability limit. The performance of the proposed algorithm is validated based on side and rear-end collision scenarios, which are difficult to predict and to monitor. The simulation results show that the proposed CAMS via POM detect a collision risk 1.4 s before the crash, and avoids the collision successfully.

Multidimensional sensitivity study of the fuzzy risk assessment module in the life cycle of building objects

Abstract The main purpose of this paper is to check the correctness of the operation of “the fuzzy risk assessment module in the life cycle of building objects”. The authors examine sensitivity of the module to the possible change of parameters that may affect the final result of the calculations due to modification: sets of membership functions for input and output variables, rules of fuzzy implication to the process of aggregation of premises and aggregation of result conclusions, as well as methods for defuzzification the resultant value. All 99 combinations of input variable values were simulated taking into account the combination for: 4 sets of membership functions (polygonal, complex, harmonic and Gaussian dunctions), 4 sets of T-norms and S-norms (minimum and maximum of Mamdani, algebraic product and sum, product and sum of Hamacher, and product and sum of Einstein) and 2 defuzzification methods (centre of gravity and bisector area method). The authors calculated arithmetic average (m), standard deviation (s) and coefficient of variation (V), which is a relative measure of variation for each of the 3168 combinations. Based on the results of research, the authors recommended the most appropriate sets of parameters that may affect the final result of the calculations.

Speciation the heavy metals; Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Ni, Cd and Pb in the Sediment of Lake Burullus (Ramsar site), Egypt

This study was carried out to investigate the speciation and distribution of the heavy metals; Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Ni, Cd and Pb in the sediments of Lake Burullus, Egypt. The mean metal concentrations of the sediments followed the order of Fe >Mn> Zn > Cu > Ni >Pb> Cd. The evaluated contamination with these metals was revealed moderate to strong ecological risk. According to applying index of the potential ecological risk index (RI), risk assessment code (RAC) and modified risk assessment code (mRAC); the risk levels showed the following order Cd = Pb>Mn> Ni > Zn > Cu > Fe. Considering the metals speciation, high levels were found in the residual fraction for Fe, Cu, Zn and Ni; while were in Fe-Mn hydroxide fraction for Cd and Pb, and in carbonate fraction for Mn. All metals showed enrichment during summer at stations of the southeastern parts of the lake due to the heavy discharge of contaminants from shakhloba, kotichener and Hoksa drains. Therefore, monitoring of contaminants discharge and determination of heavy metal and other pollutants in the water and sediments and its fractionation at Lake Burullus should be introduced for future and management strategies.

New pre-treatment eosinophil-related ratios as prognostic biomarkers for survival outcomes in endometrial cancer

BackgroundSystemic inflammation has long been related with adverse survival outcomes in cancer patients, and its biomarkers, such as the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio (NLR), are recognized as poor prognostic indicators. However, the role of eosinophils in this field has been largely overlooked. Here, we describe two new pre-treatment biomarkers, expressed as Eosinophil-to-Lymphocytes Ratio (ELR) and Eosinophil*Neutrophil-to-Lymphocytes ratio (ENLR), and we analyse their impact on prognosis of endometrial cancer (EC) patients.MethodsA total of 163 consecutive patients diagnosed with EC and treated with postoperative radiotherapy +/− chemotherapy in our institution from January 2011 to December 2015 were evaluated. The cohort was divided in two groups applying the cut-off value of 0.1 and 0.5 according to ROC curve for pre-treatment ELR and ENLR, respectively. After patients’ stratification according to the ESMO-ESGO-ESTRO modified risk assessment, subgroup analyses were conducted.ResultsHigher values of ELR and ENLR were associated with worse OS (p = 0.004 and p = 0.010, respectively). On univariate analysis, the factors associated with shorter OS were ELR ≥ 0.1 (HR = 2.9, p = 0.017), ENLR ≥ 0.5 (HR = 3.0, p = 0.015), advanced FIGO stage (HR = 3.4, p = 0.007), endometrioid histology (HR = 0.26, p = 0.003) and ESMO-ESGO-ESTRO high-risk (HR = 10.2, p = 0.023). On multivariate Cox regression, higher ELR and ENLR were independently associated with a worse outcome adjusted for the standardly applied prognostic factors.ConclusionsIncreased values of ELR and ENLR portend worse OS in EC, especially in patients classified by the ESMO-ESGO-ESTRO guidelines as a high-risk group. To our best knowledge, this is the first report describing eosinophils-related ratios as prognostic biomarkers in malignant tumours.

First report of geochemical fractionation distribution, bioavailability and risk assessment of potentially toxic inorganic elements in sediments of coral reef Islands of the Persian Gulf, Iran

Metal contamination is a serious environmental concern in the Middle East. Herein, geochemical fractionation distribution and potential sources of thirteen metals (Fe, Al, Mn, Zn, Cu, Co, Cr, Ni, V, As, Hg, Pb and Cd) were investigated in sediments from ten coral reef Islands in the Persian Gulf, Iran. To properly assess availability and mobility of elements, enrichment factor (EF), pollution load index (PLI), pollution index (PI), contamination index (CI), sediment pollution index (SPI) and ecological risk assessment were provided. Sediment grain size showed an outstanding role in controlling the levels of potentially toxic inorganic elements (PTIEs). The highest values of total organic matter (TOM) were detected in Kharg and Lavan Islands. Different metals fractionation distribution was found across sites. As was noticed in carbonate (F2), exchangeable (F1), Fe-Mn oxy-hydroxide (F3), organic (F4) and residual (F5) fractions, Hg primarily associated with F2 and F1, whereas Pb and Cd with F2, followed by F1, F3, F5 and F4. Conversely, Ni and V accumulated in F1, suggesting their high mobility and bioavailability, and thus environmental risk to aquatic biota. All metals (except Al, Fe and As) had geological and anthropogenic sources. Based on modified risk assessment analysis, the sediments from Kharg, Lavan, Siri and Lark Islands showed medium adverse effects. Overall, results from this study corroborate that petroleum industry is the main source of pollution of PTIEs in the Persian Gulf, and offer a scientific basis for monitoring and preventing metal pollution in the environment.

A method to assess the wildfire induced breakdown of high-voltage transmission lines

Wildfire is responsible for many breakdown faults of high voltage transmission lines. How to evaluate the risk of wildfire induced breakdown is of concern to the line managers. This paper presents a risk assessment method of wildfire induced breakdown of high voltage transmission lines, by combination of the wildfire model and the breakdown mechanism. The method is consisted of three modules. The wildfire module predicts the fire characteristic parameters, the breakdown module provides the electric field strength of breakdown, and the risk assessment module evaluates the breakdown risk according to two typical breakdown scenarios. A case study gives a preliminary evidence of the method’s validity. Since the method is module based, it can be updated easily and assess the breakdown risk induced by different fire types.

EXPRESS: A Modified Risk Assessment Score in the Prognostic Evaluation of One-year Survival Rate of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

EXPRESS: A Modified Risk Assessment Score in the Prognostic Evaluation of One-year Survival Rate of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

Fractionation and mobility risks of heavy metals and metalloids in wastewater-irrigated agricultural soils from greenhouses and fields in Gansu, China

Wastewater irrigation reduces the pressure on freshwater usage but leads to the accumulation of heavy metal(loid)s in soils. This study investigated heavy metal(loid)s (As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in the acid-soluble (F1), reducible (F2), oxidizable (F3), and residual (F4) fractions of soils from greenhouses and fields in Baiyin City, Gansu, China, which had been irrigated with treated industrial and municipal wastewater. Risk assessment (RAC) and modified risk assessment (mRAC) codes were used to estimate the environmental risks based on metal mobility. Results showed that more than half of each studied heavy metal(loid) (72.6%–97.4%) was present in the residual fraction (F4), which is non-bioavailable. Both the concentrations and percentages of metals in the bio-accessible fractions (F1, F2, and F3) showed no significant differences (p > 0.05) between rhizosphere and bulk soils. The greenhouse soils had higher concentrations and percentages of metals (except Pb) in bio-accessible fractions compared with field soils. Similarly, compared with irrigation using treated municipal wastewater, irrigation with treated industrial wastewater resulted in higher concentrations and percentages of all the studied metals in the bio-accessible fractions of soils. The average RAC value of each heavy metal(loid) in soils suggested medium risks from Zn, low risks from As, Cu, Ni, and Pb, and no risks from Cr. According to the mRAC values for 120 soil samples, there were only 13.3% of soils with no potential adverse effect, but 83.3% of soils with a low potential adverse effect and 3.3% of soils with a medium potential adverse effect.