Risk Assessment In China Research Articles

Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data.

The extent of economic losses due to a natural hazard and disaster depends largely on the spatial distribution of asset values in relation to the hazard intensity distribution within the affected area. Given that statistical data on asset value are collected by administrative units in China, generating spatially explicit asset exposure maps remains a key challenge for rapid postdisaster economic loss assessment. The goal of this study is to introduce a top-down (or downscaling) approach to disaggregate administrative-unit level asset value to grid-cell level. To do so, finding the highly correlated "surrogate" indicators is the key. A combination of three data sets-nighttime light grid, LandScan population grid, and road density grid, is used as ancillary asset density distribution information for spatializing the asset value. As a result, a high spatial resolution asset value map of China for 2015 is generated. The spatial data set contains aggregated economic value at risk at 30 arc-second spatial resolution. Accuracy of the spatial disaggregation reflects redistribution errors introduced by the disaggregation process as well as errors from the original ancillary data sets. The overall accuracy of the results proves to be promising. The example of using the developed disaggregated asset value map in exposure assessment of watersheds demonstrates that the data set offers immense analytical flexibility for overlay analysis according to the hazard extent. This product will help current efforts to analyze spatial characteristics of exposure and to uncover the contributions of both physical and social drivers of natural hazard and disaster across space and time.

Health risk assessment of China\u2019s main air pollutants

BackgroundWith the rapid development of China’s economy, air pollution has attracted public concern because of its harmful effects on health.MethodsThe source apportioning of air pollution, the spatial distribution characteristics, and the relationship between atmospheric contamination, and the risk of exposure were explored. The in situ daily concentrations of the principal air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO and O3) were obtained from 188 main cities with many continuous air-monitoring stations across China (2014 and 2015).ResultsThe results indicate positive correlations between PM2.5 and SO2 (R2 = 0.395/0.404, P < 0.0001), CO (R2 = 0.187/0.365, P < 0.0001), and NO2 (R2 = 0.447/0.533, P < 0.0001), but weak correlations with O3 (P > 0.05) for both 2014 and 2015. Additionally, a significant relationship between SO2, NO2, and CO was discovered using regression analysis (P < 0.0001), indicating that the origin of air pollutants is likely to be vehicle exhaust, coal consumption, and biomass open-burning. For the spatial pattern of air pollutants, we found that the highest concentration of SO2, NO2, and CO were mainly distributed in north China (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions), Shandong, Shanxi and Henan provinces, part of Xinjiang and central Inner Mongolia (2014 and 2015).ConclusionsThe highest concentration and risk of PM2.5 was observed in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei economic belts, and Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hubei and Anhui provinces. Nevertheless, the highest concentration of O3 was irregularly distributed in most areas of China. A high-risk distribution of PM10, SO2 and NO2 was also observed in these regions, with the high risk of PM10 and NO2 observed in the Hebei and Shandong province, and high-risk of PM10 in Urumchi. The high-risk of NO2 distributed in Beijing-Yangtze River Delta region-Pearl River Delta region-central. Although atmospheric contamination slightly improved in 2015 compared to 2014, humanity faces the challenge of reducing the environmental and public health effects of air pollution by altering the present mode of growth to achieve sustainable social and economic development.

Concentration of heavy metals in vegetables and potential health risk assessment in China

Food safety is an important issue in the world. This study assessed the health risk for the Chinese public when consuming vegetables grown in China, based on 1335 data records from 220 published papers during 2007-2016. The results showed that the average of Pb, Cd, and Hg concentration in vegetables was 0.106, 0.041, and 0.008mg/kg, which were lower than the maximum allowable concentrations, respectively. Leaf vegetables contained higher heavy metals than root vegetables and fruit vegetables. On a provincial scale, the highest Pb, Cd, and Hg concentrations in vegetables were determined by those in soil and atmosphere. The total health risk index showed that people in Guizhou, Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Hubei provinces in southern China, and Liaoning Province in northeast China, faced a high risk of Pb, Cd, and Hg when consuming vegetables.

Water Quality Criteria for Copper Based on the BLM Approach in the Freshwater in China.

The bioavailability and toxicity of metals to aquatic organisms are highly dependent on water quality parameters in freshwaters. The biotic ligand model (BLM) for copper is an approach to generate the water quality criteria (WQC) with water chemistry in the ambient environment. However, few studies were carried out on the WQCs for copper based on the BLM approach in China. In the present study, the toxicity for copper to native Chinese aquatic organisms was conducted and the published toxicity data with water quality parameters to Chinese aquatic species were collected to derive the WQCs for copper by the BLM approach. The BLM-based WQCs (the criterion maximum criteria (CMC) and the criterion continuous concentration (CCC)) for copper in the freshwater for the nation and in the Taihu Lake were obtained. The CMC and CCC values for copper in China were derived to be 1.391 μg/L and 0.495 μg/L, respectively, and the CMC and CCC in the Taihu Lake were 32.194 μg/L and 9.697 μg/L. The high concentration of dissolved organic carbon might be a main reason which resulted in the higher WQC values in the Taihu Lake. The WQC of copper in the freshwater would provide a scientific foundation for water quality standards and the environment risk assessment in China.

Assessing Change in Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Virus Infections During the Fourth Epidemic - China, September 2015-August 2016.

Since human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus were first reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) in March 2013 (1), mainland China has experienced four influenza A(H7N9) virus epidemics. Prior investigations demonstrated that age and sex distribution, clinical features, and exposure history of A(H7N9) virus human infections reported during the first three epidemics were similar (2). In this report, epidemiology and virology data from the most recent, fourth epidemic (September 2015-August 2016) were compared with those from the three earlier epidemics. Whereas age and sex distribution and exposure history in the fourth epidemic were similar to those in the first three epidemics, the fourth epidemic demonstrated a greater proportion of infected persons living in rural areas, a continued spread of the virus to new areas, and a longer epidemic period. The genetic markers of mammalian adaptation and antiviral resistance remained similar across each epidemic, and viruses from the fourth epidemic remained antigenically well matched to current candidate vaccine viruses. Although there is no evidence of increased human-to-human transmissibility of A(H7N9) viruses, the continued geographic spread, identification of novel reassortant viruses, and pandemic potential of the virus underscore the importance of rigorous A(H7N9) virus surveillance and continued risk assessment in China and neighboring countries.

Prevalence and population analysis of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in aquatic products from South China markets.

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a common foodborne pathogen in aquatic products. To investigate the prevalence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in aquatic products in South China, 224 samples were collected from markets in four provinces (11 cities) from May 2013 to January 2014. One hundred and fifty isolates were isolated from 98 samples. All isolates were analyzed for the presence of thermostable direct haemolysin (TDH) and TDH-related haemolysin (TRH) by PCR, antibiotic susceptibility analysis by disk diffusion method, serotyping by multiplex PCR and molecular typing by enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus sequence PCR (ERIC-PCR) typing. Although all 150 isolates were negative for tdh, 61 strains were trh positive (40.67%). Antimicrobial susceptibility results indicated that most strains were resistant to streptomycin (88.67%), cefazolin (66.00%) and ampicillin (62.67%). All strains were susceptible to chloramphenicol. Forty percent of all isolates were O2 type. The 150 isolates were grouped into three clusters by ERIC-PCR typing. The results demonstrated the presence of V. parahaemolyticus in aquatic products from the retail market and this methodology can be used for microbiological risk assessment in China.

Drought risk assessment in China with different spatial scales

With the increasing impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities, drought happens in more areas with higher frequency. In this paper, we calculate the return period and the drought risk in China based on the monthly PDSI, the Palmer Drought Severity Index, data over 188 stations from 1901 to 2010. We use the theory of runs to identify the drought duration and severity. We adopt the kernel density estimation to obtain the marginal distribution function, and the Gumbel Copula function to obtain the joint distribution function. The results show that the return period of the joint distribution for the drought duration and severity can be regarded as the extreme condition of the return period of the marginal distribution for the single factor such as the drought duration or drought severity. Under the same drought severity, the return period of the joint distribution is increasing with the prolonging of the drought duration, and it approaches to the return period of the marginal distribution of the drought severity. Under the extreme drought situation, Haihe River Basin, Huaihe River Basin, Songliao River basin, and rivers in the northwest China have a higher drought risk in future 50 years. The drought risk value in China is increasing with the prolonging of predicting time.

Assessment of regional human health risks from lead contamination in Yunnan province, southwestern China.

Identification and management the 'critical risk areas' where hotspot lead exposures are a potential risk to human health, become a major focus of public health efforts in China. But the knowledge of health risk assessment of lead pollution at regional and national scales is still limited in China. In this paper, under the guidance of 'sources-pathways-receptors' framework, regional human health risk assessment model for lead contamination was developed to calculate the population health risk in Yunnan province. And the cluster and AHP (analytic hierarchy process) analysis was taken to classify and calculate regional health risk and the decomposition of the regional health risk in the greatest health risk region, respectively. The results showed that Yunnan province can be divided into three areas. The highest health risk levels, located in northeastern Yunnan, including Kunming, Qujing, Zhaotong region. In those regions, lead is present at high levels in air, food, water and soil, and high population density which pose a high potential population risk to the public. The current study also reveals that most regional health risk was derived from the child receptors (age above 3 years) 4.3 times than the child receptors (age under 3years), and ingestion of lead-contaminated rice was found to be the most significant contributor to the health risk (accounting for more than 49 % health risk of total). This study can provide a framework for regional risk assessment in China and highlighted some indicators and uncertainties.

Predicting alien herb invasion with machine learning models: biogeographical and life-history traits both matter

Identifying the variables associated with invasiveness is a core task for developing risk assessment models to predict invasion potential. However, quantitative models with both biogeographical and life-history variables for invasion risk assessment in China are limited. We hypothesized that (1) compared to statistical algorithms, some machine learning models could offer a promising quantitative approach with high accuracy for potential invader prediction; (2) native range distribution size, origins and life-history traits co-determine an alien plant’s performance in the latter invasion stage. In this study, we used four machine learning models [classification and regression tree (CART), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), random forest (RF) and multiple additive regression tree (MART)] and two traditional statistical algorithms [logistic regression (LR) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA)] to assess the relative importance of biogeographical and trait variables in the naturalized-invasion stage of 150 invasive and 87 non-invasive herb plants in China. Our results showed that good performance was the case for all predictive models (AUROC ranges from 0.68 to 0.87), which had overall mean performance value ranging from 0.66 to 0.82. Compared with traditional statistical algorithms, MART and RF models have a consistently higher accuracy, indicating that these two models could be used as alternative quantitative approaches for risk assessment. Additionally, both biogeographical (native range distribution size) and life-history traits (seed weight) were screened out by the models, suggesting their high correlation with plant invasiveness and important roles in risk assessment.

Screening of high phytotoxicity priority pollutants and their ecological risk assessment in China’s surface waters

The protection of aquatic plants has received less attention in ecological risk assessment of pollutants compared with animals. Some pollutants like herbicide, however, are more toxic to aquatic plants than to animals. Aquatic toxicity data of 126 priority pollutants were screened and analyzed in this study. Through data analysis, five priority pollutants namely 1,1,1-trichloroethane (1,1,1-TCA), 4-nitrophenol (4-NP), butylbenzyl phthalate (BBP), di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP) and N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) were identified to have high phytotoxicity effect. The most sensitive aquatic plants to these five pollutants are all alage, including Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, Gymnodinium breve. The water quality criteria concentration of the five pollutants were derived by the species sensitivity distribution method. The acute criteria concentration for the five pollutants were derived to be 1474, 2180, 54.41, 98.52 and 520.4μgL−1, and the chronic criteria concentration for them were 147.4, 218.0, 5.441, 9.852 and 52.04μgL−1, respectively. For China’s freshwater bodies, the results of ecological risk assessment based on the derived criteria showed that, for the selected pollutants except DBP, there were basically no significant risk in most of the studied water bodies. DBP showed apparent ecological risks in all of the studied water bodies, particularly in the middle Yellow River, the Xuanwu Lake, the Yuehu Lake, etc. Field monitoring data of the Liao River and the Taihu Lake showed that DBP had moderate risks in some of the sampling sites of both the watersheds, while BBP posed moderate risks only on a few sites of the Liao River.

The Risk Assessment of China\'s Timber Import Based on SWI Index

Derived by the demand of domestic economy and forest products export, timber import shows the features of high concentration and strong dependence. Thus the risk of China's timber import significantly increases. Based on SWI Index, we construct the short-term and long-term timber risk index from resource risk, country risk, market risk, transportation risk etc. Using this index, we make a more comprehensive risk assessment and find out the trend and factors of risk. The results of index construction and estimation indicate that China's timber import generally shows the trend from high risk to low risk. Besides, it also points out that the majority of new timber- importing countries are those developing countries with high country risk and high resources risk. These factors may cause considerable potential risks. Finally, the study gives policy recommendations for reducing the risk of timber import.

Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

Abstract. Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

Snow Disaster Risk Assessment in China Based on Environment &amp; Disaster Monitoring and Predicting Small Satellite

The snow disaster is one of the main disasters in prairie pastoral areas of China. Once the snow disaster occurs, it will cause the death of a large amount of livestock due to the starvation and freezing weather. Therefore, it is especially important to forecast the risk of the snow disaster scientifically and reasonably. This paper proposed the snow disaster risk assessment model in pastoral areas based on the data of environment &amp; disaster monitoring and predicting small satellite. Considering the random of snow disaster's occurrence and the fuzziness of snow disaster risk assessment, fuzzy math method was introduced in the study of snow disaster risk assessment. After the massive experiment monitors and the contrast confirmation with the disaster situation data in National Disaster Reduction Center, the model forecasting result and the disaster situation statistical data have good uniformity from the space position and the risk degree. Study shows that the snow disaster risk assessment model is practical and feasible, and it provides important scientific method to further improve snow disaster risk assessment ability in pastoral areas.

食品中化学危害暴露组与毒理学测试新技术中国技术路线图

This is a brief perspective on China roadmap for risk management technology translation dealing with the new outcome from risk assessment. Traditionally, risk assessment is based on deterministic endpoints. From this start point, the disadvantage is reviewed in current toxicology test and dietary exposure, e.g., the result extrapolation from high dose in animal test to human being, rare in individuals’ exposomes. The vision and strategy has been explored for exposure science and toxicity testing in the 21st century (TT21C), China roadmap should been explored how to establish the platform and combining translational toxicology and exposomics in food safety risk assessment in China.

Snow Disaster Risk Assessment in China with the Multi-Layer Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

The snow disaster is one of the main disasters in prairie pastoral areas of China. Once the snow disaster occurs, it will cause the death of a large amount of livestock due to the starvation and freezing weather. Therefore, it is especially important to forecast the risk of the snow disaster scientifically and reasonably. This paper established the snow disaster risk assessment index system firstly, and then established the snow disaster risk assessment model based on multi-layer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Finally, the massive experiment monitors and the contrast confirmation with the historical case data, showed that this model is practical and feasible, which conducted a useful attempt to further improve snow disaster risk assessment ability in pastoral areas.

Exceedance probability of multiple natural hazards: risk assessment in China’s Yangtze River Delta

In recent years, greater attention has been given to advancing the theory and practice of assessing risk from multiple hazards. Most approaches calculate multi-hazard risk by aggregating risk scores for individual hazards and ignore the combined exceedance probability of multiple hazards. We address this problem by developing a simple and practicable multi-hazard risk assessment method that uses information diffusion theory to overcome the difficulty posed by a lack of historical or spatial data on natural hazard-induced loss. China’s Yangtze River Delta region is used as a demonstrative example, and the exceedance probability distribution of multi-hazard risk to human life was calculated using natural hazard disaster life loss data for 1950–2010. Multi-hazard risk to human life is mapped as exceedance probability at different mortality rates and loss at different risk return periods using a geographical information system. Results show that Hangzhou and Ningbo are at a relatively high risk from multiple natural hazards, and Shanghai is at a relatively low risk. For scenarios of 10-, 20- and 50-year risk return periods, there are no significant changes in the risk rank of the cities; Hangzhou, Ningbo and Zhoushan are at a relatively high risk, while Shanghai is at a relatively low risk.

Progresses on regulatory science and risk assessment in China

Progresses on regulatory science and risk assessment in China

Snowstorm Risk Assessment in China Based on Environment &amp; Disaster Monitoring and Predicting Small Satellite

The snowstorm is one of the main disasters in prairie pastoral areas of China. Once the snowstorm happens, the human and the domestic animals in prairie pastoral areas will suffer the total destruction in a short time. Therefore, it is especially important to forecast the risk of the snowstorm disaster scientifically and reasonably. This paper proposed the snowstorm disaster risk assessment model in pastoral areas based on environment &amp; disaster monitoring and predicting small satellite. After the massive experiment monitors and the contrast confirmation with the disaster situation data in National Disaster Reduction Center, the model forecasting result and the disaster situation statistical data have good uniformity from the space position and the risk degree. Case study shows that the snowstorm disaster risk assessment model is practical and feasible, and it provides important scientific method to further improve snowstorm disaster risk assessment ability in pastoral areas.

Flood loss analysis and quantitative risk assessment in China

Risk assessment is a prerequisite for flood risk management. Practically, most of the decision making requires that the risks and costs of all risk mitigation options are evaluated in quantified terms. Therefore, a quantitative assessment of possible flood loss is very important, especially for emergency planning and pre-disaster preparedness. This paper presents a preliminary methodology and an operational approach for assessing the risk of flood loss to the population, crops, housing, and the economy at county level in China. The present work assesses the risk of loss for each element (people, crops, and so on) under low-, moderate-, and high-intensity flood using intensity-loss curves and loss rates based on historical flood data from 1990 to 2008. Results show that the counties with high flood risk are primarily located in North, East, Central, and South China, particularly in the lower reaches of rivers. On the other hand, the risk of most counties in the western region is generally lower than that of counties in the eastern region. However, for the entire country, the high-risk regions have both a substantial amount of rainfall and low terrain, making such regions highly prone to flooding. Moreover, these high-risk regions present both high population and wealth density.

Application of Fuzzy Logic to Safety Risk Assessment of China's Maritime Passages

The maritime system has a high level of uncertainty, which makes it difficult to assess its safety. This paper proposes an improved formal safety assessment (FSA) method based on fuzzy logic and employing if–then rules, which model the qualitative aspects of human knowledge and reasoning processes. A fuzzy expert system is then designed to address FSA's risk assessment step. An investigation is performed to gain expert knowledge, which is essential to building this system. An example that assesses the safety of Chinese maritime passages is used to illustrate the methodology. The method is effective in the solution of problems with high uncertainty. Finally, suggestions are given to enhance the level of safety.