Transportation Risk Assessment Research Articles

Maritime transportation risk assessment: A multilevel node relationship-based fuzzy bayesian network

Maritime transportation safety has encountered unprecedented challenges arising from abrupt changes in various risk attributes in recent years, including natural weather and non-traditional security threats. This study presents a novel two-phase framework for assessing the maritime transportation risk. Firstly, a fuzzy Bayesian network considering multi-level node relationships was constructed to more accurately assess the transportation risk in various sea areas. In the second phase, RF-Shapley was developed to identify crucial risk nodes that exert substantial influence on transportation risk within individual sea areas. The results showed that transportation risk was the lowest in the South Asian and the highest in the Middle East waters. Critical risk nodes were different for each sea area, such as pirate attack node in Southeast Asian waters, extreme weather node in Northeast Asia, changing these nodes would be more helpful in improving transportation safety. Moreover, the contribution of critical risk nodes exhibited variations, such as combating terrorism and piracy were more conducive to reducing transportation risk in Middle Eastern waters, while ship accidents node be low contribution. These results offer valuable insights for evaluating transportation risk in uncertain environments and can serve as a reference for stakeholders to devise tailored policies and action plans.

The impact of gaseous degradation on the gas–particle partitioning of methylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

Abstract. The partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) between gas and particle phases plays a crucial role in their long-range transport and health risk assessment. However, the accurate prediction of the gas–particle (G–P) partitioning quotient (KP′) remains a challenge, especially for the light-molecular-weight (LMW) SVOCs due to their upward deviation from equilibrium state. In this study, the phenomenon with the influence of gaseous degradation on G–P partitioning was observed. Based on the diurnal study of concentrations and KP′ values for methylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (Me-PAHs), it was found that the KP′ values of methylated naphthalenes (Me-Naps; one type of LMW SVOC) during the daytime were higher than during the nighttime, and the regression lines of log KP′ versus log KOA (octanol–air partitioning coefficient) for daytime and nighttime were non-overlapping, which were different from other Me-PAHs. Compared with other diurnal influencing factors, the higher gaseous degradation of Me-Naps in the daytime than in the nighttime should partially explain their special diurnal variation in KP′, which provided a new explanation for the non-equilibrium behavior of KP′ for LMW SVOCs. Moreover, the influence of gaseous degradation on the deviation of KP′ from equilibrium state was deeply studied based on the steady-state G–P partitioning model considering particulate proportion in emission (ϕ0). The increasing times of KP′ influenced by the gaseous degradation deviated from equilibrium state can be calculated by 1 + 13.2ϕ0 × kdeg (kdeg, gaseous degradation rate). The increase in KP′ along with the increase in kdeg proved that higher gaseous degradation in the daytime could increase the KP′ value. Furthermore, an amplification in KP′ ranging from 1.11 to 5.58 times (90 % confidence interval: 1.01 to 14.4) under different ϕ0 values (0 to 1) in the temperature range of −50 to 50 °C was estimated by the Monte Carlo analysis. In summary, it can be concluded that the influence of gaseous degradation should also be considered in the G–P partitioning models of SVOCs, especially for the LMW SVOCs, which provided new insights into the related fields.

Linking sediment connectivity with sediment transport risk assessment in small forested catchments in the Czech Republic

AbstractSteep mountain environments are typically characterized by high sediment production. In the case of high hillslope–channel connectivity, high production and intensive transport of sediments are problematic and can cause damage in inhabited areas. At the end of the 19th century, due to flood events, large‐scale torrent control measures were inappropriately applied, disrupting the natural processes, and riparian and water ecosystems in watersheds. Connectivity in watersheds affects the course and magnitude of hazards that threaten human society. This is also why the topic of connectivity should be considered in the management of watercourses. Our study links the issue of sediment connectivity (lateral/longitudinal) and the sediment transport‐related risk in unmeasured forested watersheds Hučivá Desná and Upper Moravice. We applied a methodology for sediment transport‐related risk assessment and the well‐established effective catchment area (ECA) approach and connectivity index (IC) to two headwater streams. The results showed the parts of the streams with the highest degree of hazard related to sediment transport and sediment contribution areas connected to them. Based on the field survey, it was found that the best suitable threshold for ECA delineation for Hučivá Desná catchments is 8° and for Upper Moravice is 10°. Area of sediment contribution areas for Hučivá Desná is four times bigger than for Upper Moravice. The Hučiva Desná, therefore, has a higher potential sediment supply from the slopes, which also increases the possibility of occurrence of hazards associated with the sediment transport regime. All three applied methods confirmed that the parallel roads along channels decrease slope–channel connectivity, especially in the Upper Moravice catchment. The combination of methodologies created a suitable tool to identify the most problematic stretches of streams in terms of sediment connectivity and risk related to sediment transport, which can be useful for water and sediment management in unmeasured forested watersheds.

Fuelling the Future with Safe Hydrogen Transportation Through Natural Gas Pipelines: A Quantitative Risk Assessment Approach

AbstractThe global transition to clean and sustainable energy sources has sparked interest in hydrogen as a potential solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Efficient and safe transportation of hydrogen is crucial for its integration into the energy network. One approach is utilizing existing natural gas infrastructure, but it introduces unique challenges. Hydrogen has distinct characteristics that pose potential hazards, requiring careful consideration for safe transportation through natural gas pipelines. Moreover, the absence of field data on component failure rates adds to the existing uncertainty in Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for hydrogen transportation. QRA plays a vital role in enabling the safe deployment of hydrogen transportation through existing pipelines and is increasingly integrated into the permitting process. The lack of data impedes the comprehensive understanding of risks associated with hydrogen transportation. This paper aims not only to analyse the effects of hydrogen blending ratios on gas dispersion, release rates, jet fires, and explosions in natural gas pipelines, but also highlight the disparities in leak frequencies currently used for hydrogen or blended hydrogen. A QRA for hydrogen blending in natural gas pipelines is novel and timely because the behaviour of hydrogen in natural gas pipelines, a novel process with potential hazards, is not fully understood. Conducting a thorough QRA on hydrogen blending in gas pipelines, our study reveals innovative insights: higher blending ratios reduce release rates, impact safe distances, and maintain stable flame lengths. Despite an elevated explosion risk, scenarios remained below lethal overpressure values. This paper offers unique contributions to safety considerations in hydrogen transportation, guiding stakeholders toward informed decisions for a secure and sustainable energy future.

Truck Driving Assessment for Chinese Logistics and Transportation Companies Based on a Safety Climate Test System

By applying the “safety atmosphere” measurement theory to Chinese management companies engaged in road transportation, a corporate and individual safety risk assessment system was established that is consistent with the management and cultural climate in China, thereby reducing the driving safety risk of truck drivers. The system realizes the safety risk assessment of enterprises, fleets and individuals in the form of test scales by constructing a structural model of the enterprise safety atmosphere, including the management, communication, and supervision of enterprises, fleets, and individuals. The safety climate was modeled using a two-level framework, at the organizational level and fleet level, and three dimensions of test items for each level were obtained by exploratory factor analysis. The three dimensions of safety management, safety supervision, and safety priority at the organizational level, and the three dimensions of positive communication, safety awareness, and self-discipline at the fleet level, respectively, passed a valid factorial test (p < 0.01). Finally, the validity of the system evaluation results was verified by relying on the actual in-vehicle monitoring data and accident records of the corporate transportation fleet. The results show that the total test scores at the organizational level and the fleet level are significantly correlated with their driving risk behaviors, and both are linearly and negatively correlated with the number of accidents per thousand kilometers. This indicates a high degree of consistency between the system’s test results and actual risky accidents.

TRANSPORT RISKS IN THE SUPPLY CHAINS – POST COVID-19 CHALLENGES

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disruptions in global supply chains with unforeseen and unpredictable consequences. However, the pandemic was not the only reason why supply chain risk management has become more crucial than ever before. In the last decade, the occurrence of previously merely theoretical risks has emphasised the importance of risk management in supply chains. This has increased interest in risk assessment and management, COVID-19 and other disaster impact studies and proposals for more stable and resilient supply chains. This article addresses the problem of transport risk in supply chains in the context of COVID-19. Particular attention is paid to quantitative approaches. Identifying and quantifying risks and modelling their interdependencies contribute to the stability of the supply chains. The analysis presents the current state of knowledge and can serve as a guide for further research. It highlights transport risk management in supply chain management as an important area of investigation. In light of the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, the article proposes an approach to transportation risk assessment based on quantitative assessment and interconnection of risk factors.

Hydrogen Safety Challenges: A Comprehensive Review on Production, Storage, Transport, Utilization, and CFD-Based Consequence and Risk Assessment

This review examines the central role of hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen from renewable sources, in the global search for energy solutions that are sustainable and safe by design. Using the hydrogen square, safety measures across the hydrogen value chain—production, storage, transport, and utilisation—are discussed, thereby highlighting the need for a balanced approach to ensure a sustainable and efficient hydrogen economy. The review also underlines the challenges in safety assessments, points to past incidents, and argues for a comprehensive risk assessment that uses empirical modelling, simulation-based computational fluid dynamics (CFDs) for hydrogen dispersion, and quantitative risk assessments. It also highlights the activities carried out by our research group SaRAH (Safety, Risk Analysis, and Hydrogen) relative to a more rigorous risk assessment of hydrogen-related systems through the use of a combined approach of CFD simulations and the appropriate risk assessment tools. Our research activities are currently focused on underground hydrogen storage and hydrogen transport as hythane.

Spatial risk assessment of maritime transportation in offshore waters of China using machine learning and geospatial big data

Maritime transportation plays a crucial role in global trade and economic development. However, this industry is exposed to various risks (e.g., natural disasters), which can cause significant economic and environmental damage. This study aims to develop a spatial risk assessment approach for maritime transportation using machine learning and geospatial big data to identify potential risks in China's maritime transportation industry. The proposed approach first produces risk maps that reveal significant variability in maritime transportation risks across different regions of China. Then, factor importance analysis identifies wave height, rainfall, and sea surface temperature as the most influential factors affecting navigational safety. Finally, capability indicators are employed to analyze the matching relationship between coastal search and rescue resources and maritime transportation risks. Our study provides valuable references for enhancing maritime emergency response capabilities and protecting marine ecological environments.

Characteristics and risk assessment of microplastic mediated heavy metal transport in black clam Villorita cyprinoides from a Ramsar wetland of South India

The synergetic and interactive effects of microplastics (MPs) as potential carriers of pollutants and pathogens have a manifold impact on human health and aquatic biota. The present study delineates the role of MPs in transporting heavy metals to the black clam, Villorita cyrpinoides of Vembanad Lake in South India. MPs in water (3.41 ± 1.87 items/L), sediment (154.6 ± 45.4 items/kg) and within clams (0.87 ± 0.34 items/g tissue) showed considerable variation based on their physical and chemical characteristics, which in turn reflected its differential potential to carry heavy metals. Though the levels of heavy metals (Al, Fe, Mn, Zn, Cr, Pb) within the clam and those carried by MPs were less than the hazardous limits, the concentration of Cd within the clam and MP was found to have a positive correlation. Though the present levels of heavy metal pollution in the lake do not pose a direct threat to humans, anthropogenic interventions and reduced water flow have turned the lower reaches of the lake into a sink of heavy metals. Hence with MP concentration increasing it is worth investigating how their future interactions with heavy metals and other pollutants would pose a risk to living organisms.

P08-05: 3D microphysiological placenta in-vitro model as a tool for drug transport studies and risk assessment

P08-05: 3D microphysiological placenta in-vitro model as a tool for drug transport studies and risk assessment

Risk Assessment of Hazardous Materials Transportation for Small and Tribal Communities in Nebraska

Small communities (population < 5,000) and Native American communities in Nebraska, U.S., often lack the means to deal with highway-based crashes involving hazardous materials (HazMat). This research focused on assessing the vulnerability of small and tribal communities in Nebraska to the impacts of highway HazMat crashes. To do so, this paper estimated the expected number and type of HazMat crashes per population in each community. This study statistically analyzed reported HazMat crashes in Nebraska to determine if small and Native American communities experienced a higher crash rate per population and per HazMat vehicle miles traveled (VMT) than large communities and other small communities. Mean HazMat crash rate per population statistically significantly differed between small and large communities, while the mean crash rate comparison between the Native American and other small communities was not statistically significant. For the mean HazMat crash rate per HazMat VMT, neither comparison was statistically significant. For HazMat crashes per population, and per HazMat VMT, small communities had higher mean values than larger communities. Communities on Native American reservation land experienced a lower HazMat crash rate per population than other small communities but HazMat crashes per VMT in Native American communities were higher than in other small communities. Overall, this research provided a widely applicable risk assessment method not only for communities in Nebraska but also across the U.S. without appreciable loss of generality.

Transport Risk Assessment for On-Road/Sea Transport of Decommissioning Waste of Kori Unit 1

Transport Risk Assessment for On-Road/Sea Transport of Decommissioning Waste of Kori Unit 1

Risk assessment of lithium-ion battery road transportation using the data-driven Bayesian network considering battery self-heating

As a key component in electric vehicles or electronic devices, highly flammable lithium-ion batteries have been a growing concern for transportation safety, as evidenced by a number of lithium-ion battery fires in vehicle containers. Therefore, it is important to assess the key risk factors for fire accidents during the transportation of lithium-ion batteries. This study proposes a dynamic Bayesian assessment model for the transport risk assessment of lithium-ion batteries considering battery self-heating. A simulation model is constructed to explore the self-heating law of lithium-ion batteries and quantify their self-heating risk during transportation process. Based on Bayesian networks, a lithium-ion battery transportation risk assessment model is constructed by combining historical accident data and expert knowledge. The prediction results show that transportation accidents become more severe as transportation time increases. After four hours of transportation, the risk value was 12.28 % higher than that at the beginning. The battery self-heating and the improper handling are the most likely risk factor for fatal accidents, with a probability of 92.2 % and 72.4 % respectively, and these two risk factors have a great influence on accident severity. The mutual information of the ambient temperature is nearly four times that of the critical ambient temperature, indicating the ambient temperature is the key factor influencing the battery self-heating. This work aims to provide a theoretical basis for improving battery safety and reducing hazards during transportation.

An evidential reasoning-based approach for risk assessment of intermodal transport of smart containers

An evidential reasoning-based approach for risk assessment of intermodal transport of smart containers

Comparison of risk assessment approaches and analyzes used in technical transport systems

On the basis of current normative and legal bases, such as standards, directives, and laws that control interoperability and safety of systems, the paper's goal is to compare methods for risk assessment of transportation and engineering equipment and protection systems. The initial system definition defined at a high level of abstraction and a few methods used in the development of safety requirements' initial phase are taken into consideration. Eliminating the risk or lowering either of the two criteria that determine the relevant risk, such as the severity of the damage caused by the risk in question and the likelihood that the harm will occur, either independently or concurrently, can accomplish the objective of risk reduction.

The use of the risk matrix method for assessing the risk of implementing rail freight services

The article presents a proposal for the use of a risk matrix for assessing the safety of the implementation of rail freight transport. The starting point for considerations related to risk assessment is the conditions arising from the business need and the obligation of entities operating in the railway market to ensure the safety of the implementation of freight tasks. The authors presented selected literature within the framework of the issues discussed. The layers of risk assessment, which include the analytical layer, the decision layer and the elimination layer, indicate the possibility of considering the problem of risk assessment from different perspectives. The identification of direct causes and consequences of undesirable events during the implementation of rail freight transport was also made. The article describes one of the methods of risk management which is the risk matrix. The authors stressed that the construction of a risk matrix should be preceded by an analysis of the factors that affect the safety of rail transportation. This is possible by determining their probability of occurrence and setting values for the consequences of adverse events. The article divides the assignment of levels of adverse events to a five-level risk matrix (slight, low, medium, high, very high). Also presented is a case study considering the risk assessment of rail freight transport in Poland using the risk matrix method for railway accidents in the area of railway lines. Thanks to the development of the risk matrix, a risk management strategy can be used. The last part of the article is a summary, which highlights the possibility of applying the presented approach to risk assessment among entities operating in the rail transport market.

Risk assessment of pollen allergy in urban environments

According to WHO, by 2050, at least one person out of two will suffer from an allergy disorder resulting from the accelerating air pollution associated with toxic gas emissions and climate change. Airborne pollen, and associated allergies, are major public health topics during the pollination season, and their effects are further strengthened due to climate change. Therefore, assessing the airborne pollen allergy risk is essential for improving public health. This study presents a new computational fluid dynamics methodology for risk assessment of local airborne pollen transport in an urban environment. Specifically, we investigate the local airborne pollen transport from trees on a university campus in the north of France. We produce risk assessment maps for pollen allergy for five consecutive days during the pollination season. The proposed methodology could be extended to larger built-up areas for different weather conditions. The risk assessment maps may also be integrated with smart devices, thus leading to decision-aid tools to better guide and protect the public against airborne pollen allergy.

Quantifying Antibiotic Distribution in Solid and Liquid Fractions of Manure Using a Two-Step, Multi-Residue Antibiotic Extraction.

Antibiotic distribution and analysis within liquid and solid fractions of manure are highly variable due to each compound's respective physiochemical properties. This study developed and evaluated a uniform method extracting 10 antibiotics from 4 antibiotic classes (tetracycline, sulfonamides, macrolides, and β-lactam) from unprocessed manure, solid-liquid separated manure, and composted solids. Through systematic manipulation of previously published liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry methods; this study developed an extraction protocol with optimized recovery efficiencies for varied manure substrates. The method includes a two-step, liquid-solid extraction using 10 mL of 0.1 M EDTA-McIlviane buffer followed by 10 mL of methanol. Antibiotics recoveries from unprocessed manure, separated liquids, separated solids, and heat-treated solids using the two-step extraction method had relative standard deviations < 30% for all but ceftiofur. Total antibiotic recoveries were 67-131% for tetracyclines, 56% for sulfonamide, 49-53% for macrolides, and 1.3-66% for β-lactams. This is the first study to use one protocol to assess four classes of antibiotics in liquid and solid manure fractions. This study allowed for more precise risk assessment of antibiotic transport in manure waste stream applied to fields as a liquid or solid compost.

Origin, transport and ecological risk assessment of illicit drugs in the environment – A review

Illicit drugs are a novel group of emerging pollutants. A growing global environmental load and ecological risk is created by the ongoing release of these toxins into the environment. Conventional water processing plants fail to completely remove drugs of abuse from both surface water and wastewater. The origin, environmental fate and ecological repercussions of illicit drugs, despite their detection in surface waterways around the world, are not well understood. In this review, illicit drug detections in potable water, surface water and wastewater globally have been studied during the past 15 years in order to establish a baseline for future years. The most common drugs with abuse potential detected in different sources of potable and surface water were methadone (0.12–22.7 ng/L), cocaine (0.05–506.6 ng/L), benzoylecgonine (0.07–1019 ng/L), amphetamine (1.4–342.6 ng/L), and codeine (0.002–42 ng/L). The bulk of research only looked at a small number of drugs of abuse, indicating that despite widespread use, a large spectrum of these intoxicants has yet to be detected. This review focuses on the origin of illicit drug contaminants in water bodies, air, and soil, their persistence in the environment, and the typical concentrations at which they occur in the environment. The impact of these drugs on aquatic organisms like Elliptio complanata mussels, crayfish and zebrafish has also been reviewed.

Occurrence, transport and environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) at the mouth of Jiaozhou Bay, China based on stir bar sorptive extraction.

In recent years, research on pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in the marine environment has attracted increasing attention worldwide. However, more work is needed to improve PPCPs detection methods, specifically for seawater environments. An analytical method based on stir bar sorptive extraction (SBSE) had been developed and fully optimized for the pretreatment and detection of ten widely used PPCPs that are commonly found in seawater samples. By optimizing several variables including the material of the stir bars, extraction temperature, extraction time, ionic strength, desorption solvent, and desorption time, the optimized method has achieved excellent results in the detection and quantification of target PPCPs with detection limits ranging from 0.03 to 1ng/L. The distribution of target PPCPs at the mouth of Jiaozhou Bay was successfully determined by this method, and the concentrations and detection frequencies of PPCPs varied greatly from N.D. to 449.36ng/L and from 9.1% to 100%, respectively. Moreover, the distributions of PPCPs were explained by the Lagrangian particle-tracking model, and the results showed that the Tuandao sewage treatment plant had the most significant impact on the study area. The environmental risk assessment results showed that several target PPCPs might pose risks to aquatic organisms. In particular, triclocarban should receive more attention and the risk quotients of the mixtures (MRQ) should not be ignored.