Risk Assessment Criteria Research Articles

The Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement of the World Trade Organization: Debunking Its Reliance on Scientific Evidence and Reluctance to Endorse Potential Biotechnology Risks

The World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement) relies on scientific evidence as a conclusive risk assessment criterion, which ignores the inherent limitations of science. This article highlights certain trade-restrictive effects of scientific evidence and comments on the Agreement’s aversions to precautionary measures and the consumer concern of the harmful effects of biotech products that may be necessary to protect public health and biosecurity in many WTO Member States. These measures and concerns have become pressing issues due to surging consumer awareness and vigilance concerning environmental protection and food safety. The Agreement is yet to overcome the weaknesses of its endorsed international standardising bodies, the problematic definition of scientific evidence and treatment of justification for scientific risk assessment methods and the implementation difficulties faced by most developing states. This article analyses these issues under the provisions of the Agreement and the interpretations of the WTO Dispute Settlement Body in disputes involving SPS matters, which fall short of addressing scientific uncertainty surrounding biotech products and their associated risks.

A Model for the Evaluation of Critical IT Systems Using Multicriteria Decision-Making with Elements for Risk Assessment

One of the important objectives and concerns today is to find efficient means to manage the information security risks to which organizations are exposed. Due to a lack of necessary data and time and resource constraints, very often it is impossible to gather and process all of the required information about an IT system in order to properly assess it within an acceptable timeframe. That puts the organization into a state of increased security risk. One of the means to solve such complex problems is the use of multicriteria decision-making methods that have a strong mathematical foundation. This paper presents a hybrid multicriteria model for the evaluation of critical IT systems where the elements for risk analysis and assessment are used as evaluation criteria. The iterative steps of the design science research (DSR) methodology for development of a new multicriteria model for the objectives of evaluation, ranking, and selection of critical information systems are delineated. The main advantage of the new model is its use of generic criteria for risk assessment instead of redefining inherent criteria and calculating related weights for each individual IT system. That is why more efficient evaluation, ranking, and decision-making between several possible IT solutions can be expected. The proposed model was validated in a case study of online banking transaction systems and could be used as a generic model for the evaluation of critical IT systems.

Risk Factors for Tigecycline-Associated Hypofibrinogenemia.

BackgroundWith the widespread use of tigecycline, especially in elderly people infected with multidrug-resistant bacteria, the associated coagulation disorders are attracting the attention of clinicians. The risk factors of tigecycline-associated hypofibrinogenemia are still controversial.PurposeThe aims of our study were to explore the related factors of hypofibrinogenemia caused by tigecycline, and to establish the risk assessment criteria for tigecycline-associated hypofibrinogenemia.Patients and MethodsThis was an observational retrospective cohort study of patients treated for at least 3 days with tigecycline. Hypofibrinogenemia was defined as plasma fibrinogen <2.0 g/L. Risk factors were determined using logistic regression analysis, and the risk assessment criteria were identified by using receiver operating characteristic curves.ResultsIn total, 148 patients were included in the analysis, mean age was 77.09±15.11 years old. Ninety patients who developed hypofibrinogenemia during tigecycline treatment with mean plasma fibrinogen of 1.42 g/L were included in the hypofibrinogenemia group, the other 58 patients with mean plasma fibrinogen of 2.68 g/L were included in the normal group. In the multivariate analysis, age (p = 0.035), tigecycline treatment duration (p = 0.044), and baseline fibrinogen level (p = 0.002) were independently associated with hypofibrinogenemia. An age of ≥82 years, ≥9 days of medication, and a baseline fibrinogen level of ≤3.5 g/L were selected for predicting hypofibrinogenemia. Hypofibrinogenemia was independently associated with bleeding (OR 8.96, 95% CI [1.132–70.946], p = 0.038).ConclusionHypofibrinogenemia is a common adverse effect of tigecycline in our study. Elderly patients are more prone to developing hypofibrinogenemia after the administration of tigecycline. It is independently associated with bleeding but not death. The risk assessment criteria can help in the identification of patients with high risk of hypofibrinogenemia.

Розроблення методу оцінювання ризиків захисту харчових продуктів від навмисних загроз, як складова управління безпечністю харчових продуктів

The work is devoted to the development and substantiation of the method of identification and assessment of risks of food protection from economically motivated fraud and bioterrorism, taking into account the requirements of international standards for the development and operation of food safety management systems. The purpose of the work is to scientifically substantiate and develop a method of identification and assessment of risks of food protection from economically motivated fraud and bioterrorism, which is based on the concepts of VACCP and TACCP taking into account the requirements of international standards GLOBALG.A.P. and ISO 22000: 2018. Research methods - theoretical and modeling (development of identification method and selection of risk assessment criteria), representative (presentation of the application of the developed method) and diagnostic. The latter tested the possibility of applying the developed method to assess the risks of protecting food products from economically motivated fraud and intentional harm, taking into account the requirements of international standards. Results. A method for identifying and assessing the risks of food protection from economically motivated fraud and intentional harm, taking into account the requirements of international standards, developed criteria and methodology for risk assessment.

The effect of health-care Qigong Baduanjin combined with auricular point sticking on athletes' pre-competition anxiety: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background:Competition anxiety is also known as pre-competition anxiety (PCA), because this anxiety state often occurs before the athletes face the competition. If it is not adjusted in time, which will greatly affect the performance of athletes, even the mental health and physical health of athletes. Therefore, the selection of appropriate methods to intervene the athletes, reducing the PCA of athletes, and it has an important effect on the competition performance of athletes. Therefore, based on the basic theory of traditional Chinese medicine and sports psychology principles, this study adopts a way of systematic evaluation to study the effect of health-care Qigong Baduanjin (HCQB) combined with auricular point sticking (APS)in the treatment of athletes’ PCA (APA), the purpose is to help the majority of athletes to eliminate the PCA.Methods:Two searchers independently retrieve CNKI, WANFANG databases, VIP, CBM, Web of Science, Embase, PubMed, The Cochran Library and other Chinese and English databases. It is supplemented by manual retrieval to comprehensively collect the relevant literature data of the clinical controlled study of HCQB combined with APS in the treatment of APA. The retrieval time is from January 1, 1990 to October 1, 2020, using the subject word and keywords to retrieve, developing a retrieval style according to the characteristics of the database. The two evaluators independently use the above-mentioned retrieval methods to retrieve the main literature database, summarizing and removing the duplicate literature, then reading the title and abstract of the literature separately, excluding the literature that clearly does not meet the inclusion criteria, and finally reading the literature, and finally including the literature in line with the study, in case of disagreement, with the third researcher to decide. The quality evaluation of the literature is independently evaluated using the bias risk assessment criteria for randomized controlled trials in Cochrane Manual 5.1.0. Using the RevMan 5.3 software for meta-analysis.Results:This study will study the effect of HCQB combined with APS on reducing APA, and the results of the study will be published in high-impact academic journals.Conclusion:The quality of athletes’ mental state is related to whether athletes can play their true level of sports in the competition, and good mental state is also the prerequisite to ensure that athletes get better results. The conclusions reached by this study will provide quantifiable reference for coaches and athletes, with the aim of providing theoretical basis for helping the athletes eliminate PCA.Ethics and dissemination:The type of this study belongs to the category of systematic evaluation, the data in this study are derived from published research papers and public data in the Internet, so ethical review is not suitable for this study.PROSPERO registration number:2021 CRD42021228254.

Related factors for depression among Chinese men who have sex with men: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background:Men who have sex with men (MSM) are the focus group of acquired immune deficiency syndrome intervention, because of the impact of social concepts, they suffer from a lot of social discrimination, and mental health problems are more prominent. Depression is prevalent in Chinese MSM. The aim of this systematic review is to systematically assess the current evidence on factors associated with depression among Chinese MSM.Methods:This study will be conducted in strict accordance with the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis protocols. China National Knowledge Infrastructure, VIP Database, Wanfang Database, Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library will be searched comprehensively to collect cross-sectional studies, case-control studies, Cohort studies for depression of the related factors among Chinese MSM. The retrieval time is limited from the establishment of the database to December 2020. Two researchers independently evaluate the study and extract the data according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Meanwhile, the Newcastle–Ottawa scale and the bias risk assessment criteria of the agency for healthcare research and quality will be used to evaluate the risk of bias in the included studies, and the meta-analysis will be carried out by using Stata 15.0.Results:This study will systematically evaluate the related factors for depression among Chinese MSM based on published studies. The results will be presented here.Conclusion:The conclusion of the systematic review and meta-analysis will provide clinical evidence for the related factors and prevention and treatment measures of depression among Chinese MSM.

Vulnerability assessment of Lake Malawi’s ornamental fish resources to export ornamental trade

Productivity Sustainability Analysis (PSA) was used to assess the vulnerability of 103 most targeted ornamental fish species of Lake Malawi to fishing for the export trade. The PSA was based on five productivity and four susceptibility attributes that are relevant to the ornamental fishes of Lake Malawi, and for which information was readily available from the scientific literature. The vulnerability scores ranged from 1.78 to 3.84 with a mean value of 2.49. Seven species (Aulonocara sp ‘walteri’, Lethrinops sp ‘red cap’, Aulonocara baenschi, Copadichromis azureus, Melanochromis chipokae, Placidochromis phenochilus and Protomelas sp ‘mbenji thick lips’) were classified in the high-vulnerability category with vulnerability scores ranging from 3.18 to 3.84. Twenty-five species were within the medium vulnerability category with scores between 2.64 and 2.96 while 71 species ranked as of low vulnerability scores ranging between 1.78 and 2.63. The vulnerability scores were positively correlated with IUCN conservation status (τb = 0.286, p = 0.001). Susceptibility scores had a stronger correlation with the IUCN risk assessment criteria (τb = 0.390, p < 0.001) compared to the productivity scores (τb = -0.023, p = 0.805). In addition, the susceptibility scores contributed more to the vulnerability scores for species ranked to be of high-vulnerability, which provides a potential scope for management interventions. The findings validate the use of the PSA for assessing freshwater ornamental fish species. Use of the PSA approach has an added advantage of being applicable for undescribed species which are difficult to assess using other vulnerability assessment approaches. The potential for promoting the export of low-vulnerability ornamental fish species; while prioritizing conservation of high-vulnerability species is evident, coupled with quantitative research to inform the development of precautionary management measures.

Potential Disparities by Sex and Race or Ethnicity in Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility Rates

Criteria for low-dose CT scan lung cancer screening vary across guidelines. Knowledge of the eligible pool across demographic groups can enable policy and programmatic decision-making, particularly for disproportionately affected populations. What are the eligibility rates for low-dose CT scan screening according to sex and race or ethnicity and how do these rates relate to corresponding lung cancer incidence rates? This was a cross-sectional study using data from the 2015 National Health Interview Survey adult and cancer control supplement files. In addition to eligibility rates, the ratio of the eligibility rate to the lung cancer incidence rate in a given population group (eligibility to incidence [E-I] ratio) also was determined. Guidelines assessed were: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, National Comprehensive Cancer Network, and US Preventive Services Task Force current or with expansion of age and smoking or quit thresholds. We also assessed a risk model (PLCOM2012 risk model). Total numbers eligible based on current guidelines ranged from 8.3 to 13.3 million, representing 8.3%to 13.4%of the US population 50 to 80 years of age, and up to 17.5 million with expanded criteria. Overall eligibility rates on average were about 10 percentage points higher for men than women. For both men and women, and both overall and among ever smokers, non-Hispanic Whites had the highest eligibility rates across all guidelines, followed generally by non-Hispanic Blacks, and then Asians and Hispanics. Among both men and women, non-Hispanic Whites had the highest E-I ratios across all guidelines; non-Hispanic Black men had higher lung cancer incidence, but 30%to 50%lower E-I ratios, than non-Hispanic White men. Screening eligibility rates vary widely across guidelines, with disparities evident in E-I ratios, including among non-Hispanic Black men, despite higher lung cancer burden. Consideration of smoking duration in risk assessment criteria may address current disparities.

Approach to environmental risk assessment in the design and operation of oil fields in the Arctic region

Environmental risk is the basis for environmental safety assessment for any object. Without a risk assessment, it is extremely difficult to control the permissibility of certain anthropogenic impacts on the environment. At the same time the active development of hydrocarbon production in the Arctic region, can lead to irreversible consequences for the environment because of the special vulnerability of this territory to man-made impacts. In this regard it became necessary to create a universal and practical methodology for the environmental risks assessment. This article proposes an approach to assessing environmental risks for the design and operation of oil fields in the Arctic region, which allows comprehensive reviewing of the environmental safety of hydrocarbon production, as well as prompt and optimal response to environmental pollution. The criteria for risk assessment, their significance, as well as the structure and methodology of the assessment itself are analyzed.

Distribution, contamination status and bioavailability of trace metals in surface sediments along the southwest coast of India

This study investigates the influence of upwelling induced seasonal hypoxia in the sediment-water interface on the distribution, bioavailability and geochemical partitioning of selected trace metals in surficial sediments along the southwest coast of India based on two successive cruises. The first cruise was during the southwest monsoon (SWM) season when coastal waters exhibited intermittent bottom hypoxia due to upwelling. The second cruise during the northeast monsoon (NEM) season was characterised by a uniformly warm and well-oxygenated water column in the study region. The results showed that grain size, organic carbon and Fe are the major factors influencing the distribution of trace metals in the surface sediments. Based on the geochemical indices (contamination factor, enrichment factor and geo-accumulation factor), the study region appears to be moderately contaminated by Ni, Cr, and Pb. Based on the ecological risk assessment criteria, the enrichment of Pb, Cr and Ni may cause adverse effects on the benthic organisms. The fractionation studies demonstrated that the major pathway of metal deposition in the sediment is lithogenic. The data also showed that labile and organic fractions are the second dominant forms, while other fractions (exchangeable and carbonate) are insignificant. The consistency in the reactive Fe concentrations during SWM and NEM could be due to the absence of Fe dissolution in sediments under mild reducing condition (intermittent hypoxia). In addition to the above, an enrichment of organic matter also leads to increased deposition of trace metals in sediments. Conversely, the secondary phase enrichment factor and risk assessment code calculated based on the metal fractionation data indicated low risk and contamination along the southwest coast of India except for Zn that showed moderate contamination in some transects. The study provides the need for regular geochemical assessment to control metal pollution in the coastal environment, which is a major resource of the fishery.

Change of concentration of biochemical markers of dysfunction of endothelium at intake of inhibitors of tyrosinekinase of I and II generations at patients with a chronic myeloid leukemia as risk factor of development of cardiovascular complications

CML), the accepting inhibitors tyrosine of kinases (TKI) I and the II generations (TKI1 and TKI2 respectively), and development of arterial hypertension.Material and methods. Examination of 137 patients with CML in the chronic phase (CP) is conducted, the median of age — 47 years. 24 of them were with for the first time the verified diagnosis of CML and earlier did not accept TKI, they have made group of control. Other patients accepted TKI: 39 patients — imatinib 400 mg/day, 36 — dasatinib 100 mg/day, 38 — nilotinib 800 mg/day) more than 6 months. In biochemical analysis of blood indicators of lipidic range were defined. Level detection of ET-1 and VEGF was made by means of enzyme immunoassay. To all patients measurement of the heart rate (HR) and the arterial blood pressure (ABP) on both hands at an interval of 2 minutes from previous was once taken.Results. In group of patients from CML accepting nilotinib authentically significant increase in levels of systolic and diastolic ABP (р&lt;0,001) in comparison with group of control, with group of the patients accepting imatinib and dasatinib is noted. The most serious changes of lipidic range are noted at the patients accepting nilotinib. In all groups statistically significant increase in level of C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, homocysteine, endothelin-1 and VEGF in comparison with group of control is revealed. The most expressed changes are found in group of the patients accepting nilotinib, values of parameters of C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, homocysteine, endothelin-1 and VEGF are changed authentically (р&lt;0,001) and statistically significantly differ in comparison with group for the first time of the revealed patients with CML and groups of reception of imatinib and dazatinib.Conclusion. As a result of the conducted research endothelium variation of a function at patients from CML accepting TKI1 and TKI2 is revealed. The above-stated indicators can be used as additional diagnostic criteria for assessment of risk of development of arterial hypertension in patients with CML at reception of TKI.

Ranking effective risks on human resources threats in natural gas supply projects using ANP-COPRAS method: Case study of Shiraz

Recently, there has been an increase in the number of accidents and risks in urban natural gas supply such as fire and explosion in cities. These risks and accidents have caused a lot of financial and life damages. Due to the high number of incidents in the world, identification and evaluation of these risks seems essential. This study aims to identify and evaluate the risks in urban natural gas projects in Shiraz. The research tools of this study were interviews, questionnaires and case studies’ information.. In this research, the COPRAS (Complex Proportional Assessment) method was used to carry out risk assessment and ANP (Analytic Network Process) technique was used to obtain weights of each risk assessment criteria. 12 risk assessment criteria were identified, of which "Installation", "Risk of leakage" and "Risk impact" were identified as the three most important criteria. 32 risks were identified in natural gas supply projects in Shiraz of which "Municipal interventions", "Mistakes in repairing gas supply pipes" and "Financial inability of contractors to insulate tubes" were the most important. The results can help stakeholders in excavation projects to identify and manage risks.

Developing Risk Assessment Criteria and Predicting High- and Low-Dengue Risk Villages for Strengthening Dengue Prevention Activities: Community Participatory Action Research, Thailand.

Background:Risk assessment criteria for predicting dengue outbreak must be appropriated at village levels. We aimed to develop risk dengue village prediction criteria, predict village dengue risk, and strengthen dengue prevention based on community participation.Methods:This participatory research conducted in Southern Thailand included the following 5 phases: (i) preparing communities in 3 districts; (ii) developing risk dengue village prediction criteria; (iii) applying computer program; (iv) predicting village dengue risk with 75 public health providers in 39 PCUs; and (v) utilizing findings to strengthen dengue prevention activities in 220 villages. Data collecting for prediction used secondary data from primary care units in the past 5 year and current year. Descriptive statistics used calculating criteria and comparing with standard level to adjust score of risk.Results:Risk dengue village assessment criteria had 2 aspects: dengue severity (3 factors) and dengue outbreak opportunity (3 factors). Total scores were 33 points and cut-off of 17 points for high and low dengue risks villages. All criteria were applied using computer program (http://surat.denguelim.com). Risk prediction involved stakeholder participation in 220 villages, and used for strengthening dengue prevention activities. The concept of integrated vector management included larval indices surveillance system, garbage management, larval indices level lower than the standard, community capacity activities for dengue prevention, and school-based dengue prevention. The risk prediction criteria and process mobilized villages for dengue prevention activities to decrease morbidity rate.Conclusion:Dengue risk assessment criteria were appropriated within the village, with its smallest unit, the household, included. The data can be utilized at village levels for evaluating dengue outbreak risks.

Research of environmental risk factors in estimation of real estate

The paper investigates environmental risk factors that determine the value of real estate assets and make valuation decisions. It is determined that the components of the environment are the object of the cumulative impact of environmental risk, and indirectly through them are real estate objects and people. Among all the environmental components, the most decisive is the atmosphere, as the harmful substances coming from the atmospheric air into the human body are absorbed most intensely. The main criterion for environmental risk assessment is the degree of influence of harmful substances on the health of the population. The systematization of environmental risk factors, which provides an analysis of the causes, sources and significance of negative material and physical impact in the study area with the separation of two qualitatively different types of environmental risk: direct and indirect. Both positive and negative environmental factors that affect the value of real estate are listed. It is proposed to determine environmental risk as part of a probabilistic approach to assess the deterioration of life due to the deterministic and stochastic effects of environmental pollution surrounding a real estate object. Dependencies for quantitative estimation of direct and indirect environmental risks are determined. Conceptual bases for objective consideration of negative environmental factors of material and physical nature in the developed territories have been developed.

ІДЕНТИФІКАЦІЯ РИЗИКІВ СТРАТЕГІЧНОГО УПРАВЛІННЯ ТЕЛЕКОМУНІКАЦІЙНИМИ ПІДПРИЄМСТВАМИ В УМОВАХ ЦИФРОВОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ

All the world's leading telecommunications companies are constantly improving the quality of planning and strategic management, and in recent years have begun to pay more attention to risk accounting. Risk management comes to the fore in virtually every telecommunications company, because in today's digitalization, telecommunications companies provide a physical platform for the implementation and development of the digital economy. Currently, domestic telecommunications companies are actively implementing risk management, with the greatest activity being shown by cellular operators, 70% of which have already implemented risk management elements, and the other 30% are ready to start this process in the near future. But in the new realities of risk identification, assessment and forecasting are so complicated that the generation of decisions in the strategic management of telecommunications companies updates the training of specialists and requires the latest scientific developments in this area. Given the ever-increasing cost of the risks faced by both large and small telecommunications companies, there is a need to improve existing and develop new relevant methods for identifying the risks of strategic management of telecommunications companies in the digital economy. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical and methodological provisions for identifying the risks of telecommunications enterprises for the further development of the system of strategic management of telecommunications enterprises in the development of the digital economy of Ukraine. The article states that the identification of risks of strategic management of telecommunications companies, as well as measures to identify, interpret, personalize responsible persons, choose risk assessment criteria and choose alternatives is the main factor determining the stable development of telecommunications companies in the digital economy. Thus, the problem of identifying the risk of strategic management, the choice of assessment method and responsibility in the modern management of telecommunications enterprises is very promising to study. In addition, its relevance grows over time. There are all new issues for consideration, which are of interest to representatives of many sciences and are important for the practical application of telecommunications enterprises in the digital economy in Ukraine.

Current problems of strategic governance in the digital economy

The article studies the theoretical and methodological provisions for identifying the risks of communications enterprises for the further development of the system of strategic management of communications enterprises in the context of the development of the digital economy of Ukraine. The article indicates that the identification of risks of strategic management of telecommunications companies, as well as measures to identify, interpret, personalize responsible persons, select risk assessment criteria and select alternatives are the main factor determining the sustainable development of telecommunications companies in the digital economy. It was revealed that the problem of identifying the risk of strategic management, choosing the method of assessment and responsibility in the modern management of telecommunications enterprises is very promising for study. In addition, its relevance increases over time. More and more new questions appear for consideration that are of interest to representatives of many sciences and are important for the practical application of telecommunications enterprises in the digital economy of Ukraine.

Organophosphate Esters in the Canadian Arctic Ocean

Eleven organophosphate esters (OPEs) were detected in surface water and sediment samples from yearly sampling (2013-2018) in the Canadian Arctic. In water samples, ∑chlorinated-OPEs (Cl-OPEs) concentrations exceeded ∑non-chlorinated-OPEs (non-Cl-OPEs) with median concentrations of 10 ng L-1 and 1.3 ng L-1, respectively. In sediment samples, ∑Cl-OPEs and ∑nonchlorinated-OPEs had median concentrations of 4.5 and 2.5 ng g-1, respectively. High concentrations of OPEs in samples from the Mackenzie River plume suggest riverine discharge as an OPE source to the Canadian Arctic. The prevalence of OPEs at other sites is consistent with long-range transport. The OPE inventory of the Canadian Arctic Ocean representative of years 2013-2018 was estimated at 450-16,000 tonnes with a median ∑11OPE mass of 4100 tonnes with >99% of the OPE inventory estimated to be in the water column. These results highlight the importance of OPEs as water-based Arctic contaminants subject to long-range transport and local sources. The high OPE inventory in the water column of the Canadian Arctic Ocean points to the need for international regulatory mechanisms for persistent and mobile organic contaminants (PMOCs) that are not covered by the risk assessment criteria of the Stockholm Convention.

Risk Assessment of Construction Project in India

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the risk assessment of construction project commenced by Government, Private and Non-Governmental organization. The risk evaluation criteria are listed by taking into consideration the Delivery System, identifying process in project life cycle,planning process, analysis process, Classification process, Monitoring process, controlling process and Communication process of a construction project. Consequently the questionnaire was prepared and distributed to the related construction professionals. Subsequently the collected data was analyzed through statistical tool. The affecting factors were measured and ranked for various construction professionals[2]. The top major ways for avoiding the risk must be on consideration. The background and presented criteria of construction project risk assessment are provided and key findings from the analysis are presented here.

Study of Rock Burst Risk Evolution in Front of Deep Longwall Panel Based on Passive Seismic Velocity Tomography

Monitoring and early-warning are critical for the prevention and controlling of rock burst in deep coal mining. In this study, rock burst risk assessment criterion was built based on the correlativity between seismic velocity and stress state in coal and rock body. Passive seismic velocity tomography using mining-induced seismic waves was conducted regularly and continuously. The evolution of rock burst risk and range in front of a deep longwall panel with folds and adjoining goaf was determined. The influence of pressure-relief measures on rock burst risk was analyzed. The study results indicate that burst risk level and range during panel retreating increase first and then decrease, the peak is reached when it is located at 1# syncline shaft area. When approaching the crossheading, high burst risk zones distribute along the crossheading and further intersect with those in 1# syncline shaft area. Burst risk zones in the inclination of panel show distinct zoning features. Tomography results are in good agreement with the drilling bit result, rock burst occurrence, microseismic activity, and working resistance of hydraulic supports. Pressure-relief measures and mining layout have a distinct influence on burst risk of longwall panel. For prevention and controlling of rock burst risk in deep coal mining, pressure-relief measures should be optimized based on passive tomography results.

Validation of ELN2017 Risk Stratification in a Post-Hoc Analysis of the Prospective Biomarker-Based Gimema AML1310 Protocol

Background: In the 2017 version of the ELN recommendations (ELN2017), a comprehensive evaluation of karyotype and mutational status of specific genes (e.g. FLT3 and NPM1) allows to classify patients (pts) with Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) into 3 prognostically distinct risk groups (favorable, intermediate and adverse-risk). Before the publication of the ELN2017 guidelines, the Gruppo Italiano Malattie Ematologiche MAligne (GIMEMA) conducted a prospective trial (AML1310) in which prognostic classification relied on the risk assessment criteria (NCCN2009) at that time available. In this post-hoc analysis, we investigated the applicability of the ELN2017 risk stratification to the AML1310 study population. Methods: After induction and consolidation, pts in complete remission (CR) were to receive autologous stem cell transplant (AuSCT) if categorized as favorable-risk (FR) (CBF-AML, NPM1-mutated) or allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) if adverse-risk (AR) (FLT3-ITD, complex karyotype). Intermediate-risk pts (IR) were to receive AuSCT or ASCT based on the post-consolidation levels of MRD as measured by flow-cytometry. Baseline genetic/cytogenetic, together with RUNX1/RUNX1T1, CBFb/MYH11, NPM1, FLT3 mutational status (including the FLT3 allelic ratio for those positive) were used to retrospectively classify pts according to the ELN2017. Results: All 500 pts, enrolled in the AML1310 trial, were included in the present analysis. Retrospective allocation was feasible in 445/500 (89%) cases and pts lacking crucial information for a proper ELN2017 assignment, defined a control group (ELN2017-NC). Median age was 49 (range 18-61). The re-assignmentaccording to the ELN2017, resulted in 186 pts (41.8%) belonging to the FR category (ELN2017-FR), 179 (40.2%) to the IR (ELN2017-IR) and 80 (18%) to the AR (ELN2017-AR) ones. Moreover, 55 (11%) pts were considered ELN2017-NC. Based on this process of re-assignment, 173 pts were reclassified according to ELN2017: 6 from NCCN FR (1 ELN2017-NC, 4 ELN2017-IR, 1 ELN2017-AR), 54 from NCCN IR (34 ELN2017-NC, 4 ELN2017-IR, 1 ELN2017-AR), and 113 from NCCN AR (20 ELN2017-NC, 38 ELN2017-FR, 55 ELN2017-AR) groups. After 1-2 cycles of induction, 361 (72%) pts obtained CR or CR incomplete (CRi): 163 (88.1%), 114 (65%), 45 (56.2%) and 39 (70%) in the ELN2017-FR, ELN2017-IR, ELN2017-AR and ELN2017-NC groups, respectively (p&amp;lt;0.001). Among 342 transplant candidates, 111/177 (82 [73.9%] ELN2017-FR, 19 [17.1%] ELN2017-IR, 2 [1.8%] ELN2017-AR, 8 [7.2%] ELN2017-NC) and 132/165 (25 [18.9%] ELN2017-FR, 61 [46.2%] ELN2017-IR, 25 [18.9%] ELN2017-AR, 21 [15.9%] ELN2017-NC) received AuSCT and ASCT, respectively (p&amp;lt;0.001). According to ELN2017 risk classification, the four groups significantly differed (p &amp;lt; 0.001) in terms of 2-years overall survival (OS) (68.8% vs. 51.3% vs. 45.8% vs. 42.8% for the ELN2017-FR, ELN2017-IR, ELN2017-NC, and ELN2017-AR groups, respectively). [Figure 1] Then, we investigated the impact of AuSCT and ASCT on each ELN2017 category; this evaluation was not possible for ELN2017-AR pts since only 2 of them received AuSCT. Among ELN2017-FR pts, a significant benefit of AuSCT over ASCT was observed (2-years OS of 83.3% vs. 66.7%, respectively; p=0.0421). In the ELN2017-IR group, AuSCT and ASCT performed equivalently (2-years OS of 73.9% vs. 70.8%, respectively). In univariate analyses, OS duration was shorter for pts from the ELN2017-AR (HR=2.203, CI 1.496-3.246; p&amp;lt;0.0001), ELN2017-IR (HR=1.796, CI 1.293-2-494; p=0.0005), and ELN2017-NC (HR=2.267, CI 1.488-3.228; p=0.0001). Multivariate model for OS prediction highlighted the role of age (HR=1.033, p&amp;lt;.0001), ELN2017 assignment and transplant (analyzed as a time-dependent covariate) (HR=0.674, p=0.0185), as the most significant prognostic variables. Summary/Conclusion: In this GIMEMA AML1310 post-hoc analysis, we confirmed that the ELN2017 classification is able to accurately define pts that can benefit from different post-remission strategies. Specifically, AuSCT granted longer survival in FR pts, while for IR pts AuSCT and ASCT performed equally when minimal residual disease was used as a driver for opting between one of the two. In conclusion, ELN classification is a reliable grouping system that, combined with MRD assessment, helps addressing pts to the most appropriate treatment. Such an hypothesis will be prospectively challenged in the next GIMEMA trial AML1819. Disclosures Luppi: Abbvie: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Gilead Sci: Consultancy, Speakers Bureau; Sanofi: Consultancy; Daiichi-Sankyo: Consultancy; MSD: Consultancy. Voso:Bristol Myers Squibb: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding. Venditti:Pfizer: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company), Speakers Bureau; Amgen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company); Jazz: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company); AbbVie: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company); Janssen: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company); Novartis: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: TRAVEL, ACCOMMODATIONS, EXPENSES (paid by any for-profit health care company).