Arbitrage Risk Research Articles

Margin-trading volatility and stock price crash risk

Previous studies rarely discuss the effect of margin trading on future stock price crash risk, though margin trading is often blamed for destabilizing stock market. We propose three possible mechanisms through which margin trading may affect crash risk. Our empirical results show that neither margin-buying activity nor margin debt is associated with future crash risk, rejecting mechanisms of both “liquidity provision” and “fire sales”. In contrasts, stocks with more margin-trading volatility are predicted to have more crash risk, supporting the view of “arbitrage risk mechanism”. Furthermore, we find that higher margin-trading volatility results in higher overpricing and less information content.

Arbitrage risk and a sentiment as causes of persistent mispricing: The European evidence

We investigate the relationship between risk-adjusted returns, arbitrage risk and arbitrage asymmetry, and investor sentiment in the European stock market. Under the assumption that idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) causes arbitrage risk, we analyze the effects of IVOL on the abnormal returns of the Euro Stoxx 50 large cap constituents. After classifying the stocks in two mispricing categories, we uncover evidence of arbitrage risk especially in the overpriced group: the highest IVOL overpriced portfolio is the most overpriced, which implies persistent, subsequent risk-adjusted returns that slowly revert to zero. When the estimation is performed afresh separating the high- from the low-sentiment periods and controlling for macroeconomic conditions, we find evidence of a negative relation between investor sentiment and IVOL effects, which is yet more pronounced for the highest arbitrage-risk stocks. This is consistent with psychological biases strongly affecting the impact of arbitrage risk on the speed of correction of mispricing.

Dissecting Arbitrage Costs

We dissect the relative importance of nine commonly used measures of arbitrage costs on the extent of mispricing in the cross-section of stock returns. Using the relative valuation index developed in Stambaugh, Yu, and Yuan (2012) to measure mispricing, we find that arbitrage risk, measured using idiosyncratic risk, is the predominant limiting arbitrage cost. Information uncertainty and transactions costs are also important limiting factors to arbitrage, but only among small stocks. A principal components analysis shows that arbitrage costs can be reduced into two significant dimensions. Overall the evidence suggests that arbitrage costs explain much of the average returns associated with stock anomalies.

Arbitrage risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China

We demonstrate that arbitrage risk, constructed using three measures — noise trader risk, trading cost and information uncertainty — can predict the return of stocks cross-sectionally in China. The findings are broadly consistent even when out-of-sample tests are conducted using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression approach. We also construct hypothetical portfolios using the information arising from arbitrage risk and find the existence of abnormal returns which is robust to the use of various portfolios constructed by re-sampling the observations through multiple approaches (e.g., by market capitalization and by book-to-market ratio). Lastly, we reconstruct our portfolios by considering the unique nature of the Chinese stock market (e.g., the dominance of individual investors). Our trading strategies again successfully obtain abnormal returns, suggesting that arbitrage risk can be useful to construct effective investment portfolios in China.

Simultaneous Analyst Coverage and the Reduction of the Risk-Arb Spread

Research on mergers and hedge funds find that the risk arbitrage spread has contracted. This paper investigates the role financial analysts have on risk arbitrage by comparing mergers where a single analyst covers both the target and the acquirer prior to the deal announcement. We find that simultaneous coverage increases as a percent of M&A deals and that deals with simultaneous analyst coverage have a lower risk-arb spread. We additionally find that these deals have a lower takeover premium and longer time to completion. Overall, results suggest that simultaneous analyst coverage has reduced the risk-arb spread.

Analysis of Chinese Short-Term International Capital Flow Capital Motivation

Based on the existing basis, this paper analyzes the short-term international working capital. In addition to considering the interest rate, exchange rate and asset price factors, it also incorporates the fluctuation risk factors of GDP for comprehensive consideration. This article uses the quarterly data of 2000Q1-2016Q3 to build a VAR model of quarterly data. The results show that Chinese short-term international capital flows are explained by their own changes to a large extent; among the four factors, exchange rate and asset price factors have the greatest impact, and arbitrage and DGP risk fluctuations have the weakest impact, indicating that investors are at the national level. Economic fluctuations and spreads are not sensitive, and the purpose of short-term international capital is to obtain the benefits of assets and exchange rates.

Margin-Trading Volatility and Stock Price Crash Risk

Previous studies rarely discuss the effect of margin trading on future stock price crash risk, though margin trading is often blamed for destabilizing stock market. We propose three possible mechanisms through which margin trading may affect crash risk. Our empirical results show that neither margin-buying activity nor margin debt are associated with future crash risk, rejecting mechanisms of both “liquidity provision” and “fire sales”. In contrasts, stocks with more margin-trading volatility are predicted to have more crash risk, supporting the view of “arbitrage risk mechanism”. Furthermore, we find that higher margin-trading volatility results in higher overpricing and less information content.

Mean-Variance Optimization-Based Energy Storage Scheduling Considering Day-Ahead and Real-Time LMP Uncertainties

In this letter, a new mean-variance optimization-based energy storage scheduling method is proposed with the consideration of both day-ahead (DA) and real-time (RT) energy markets price uncertainties. It considers the locational marginal price (LMP) forecast uncertainties in DA and RT markets. The energy storage arbitrage risk associated with the LMP forecast uncertainty is explicitly modeled through the variance component in the objective function. The quadratic term of this variance is transformed into a second-order cone constraint using the charging and discharging power complementarity of the energy storage system. Finally, the proposed model is formulated as a mixed-integer conic programming problem. Numerical case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for energy storage scheduling considering price uncertainty.

Financial distress, short sale constraints, and mispricing

This paper specifically examine how the extent of the distress puzzle differs according to the degree of mispricing and short sale constraints. We find that the distress puzzle observed for overpriced stocks, not for underpriced stocks, becomes insignificant after adjustment for short sale constraints due to an asymmetric pricing effect of short sale constraints only on the short-leg side of distress. However, after adjustment for arbitrage risk, the distress puzzle remains unchanged. These results indicate that the distress puzzle is mainly attributable to short sale constraints, rather than other limits-to-arbitrages such as arbitrage risk, which has a bi-lateral pricing effect on both short-leg and long-leg sides of distress. To mitigate a possible endogeneity problem relation among financial distress, mispricing, and short sale constraints, we measure these variables with different timing.

The Organized Irresponsibility Principle and Risk Arbitrage

In an age of accelerating wealth at the very top and accelerating risks at the bottom, there is a clear disjunction between the flow of social benefits and social damages produced by different actors and their share of these respective benefits and damages. Yet, the specific processes that generate the dualization of tracks of accumulation of rewards or accumulation of risks and precarity are still up for debate. In tackling this dual process in a way that is attuned to the critical contribution of contemporary forms of the law to this uneven accumulation of wealth and of risks, this paper focuses on organized irresponsibility—where individuals can cumulatively contribute to risks, but avoid individual culpability—and how relations of organized irresponsibility provide extensive opportunities for risk arbitrage. Risk arbitrage is correspondingly a process where actors, whether it be individuals or larger organizations, can produce social risk, appropriate benefit from these risks, and disproportionately avoid the consequences of the risks so as to benefit from the overall “cycle of reward and risk”—even if society as a whole is worse off. The paper identifies organized irresponsibility as fundamentally undergirded by mismatches between existing configurations of law and the existing complexity of the processes of the production of social goods and risks. This paper proceeds to show how gaps in the law enable the organized irresponsibility principle—that given a level of risk production, the greater the number of actors involved and the greater complexity between causes and the risk’s impacts, the less overall culpability that tends to be assigned. It then shows how the organized irresponsibility principle enables relationships of risk arbitrage that intensify contemporary risk and inequality.

Influencing Control: Jawboning in Risk Arbitrage

ABSTRACTIn an “activist risk arbitrage,” a shareholder attempts to improve terms of an announced M&A through public campaigns. Activists target deals with low premiums and those susceptible to managerial conflicts of interest, including going‐private deals and deals in which CEOs receive outsized payments. Activist arbitrageurs are associated with a significant decrease in the probability that targets will be sold to the announced bidders, and an increase in the premium paid, both ex post among surviving deals and ex ante among all deals. Activist arbitrage serves as a governance mechanism in M&A and earns higher returns than passive arbitrage.

Idiosyncratic Volatility and the Cross-Section of Anomaly Returns: Is Risk Your Ally?

Due to arbitrage risk asymmetries, the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns is positive (negative) among overpriced (underpriced) stocks. We offer a new active anomaly-selection strategy that capitalizes on this effect. To this end, we consider eleven equity anomalies in the U.S. market for years 1963-2016. Buying (selling) long (short) legs of the anomaly portfolios with the highest idiosyncratic volatility produces monthly abnormal returns ranging from 0.97% to 1.14% per month, outperforming a naive benchmark that equally weights all the anomalies by 45-70%. The effect cannot be subsumed by any other established anomaly-return predictor, like momentum or seasonality. The results are robust to many considerations, including different numbers of anomalies in the portfolios, subperiod analysis, as well as estimation of idiosyncratic risk from the alternative models and throughout different periods.

Arbitrage Risk and Investor Sentiment as Causes of Persistent Mispricing: the European Evidence

We investigate the relationship between risk-adjusted returns, arbitrage risk and arbitrage asymmetry, and investor sentiment in the European stock market. Under the assumption that idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) causes arbitrage risk, we analyze the effects of IVOL on the-abnormal returns of the Euro Stoxx 50 large cap constituents. After classifying the stocks in two mispricing categories, we uncover evidence of arbitrage risk especially in the overpriced group: the highest IVOL overpriced portfolio is the most overpriced, which implies persistent subsequent risk-adjusted returns that slowly revert to zero. When the estimation is performed afresh separating the high- from the low-sentiment periods and controlling for macroeconomic conditions, we find evidence of a negative relation between investor sentiment and IVOL effects, which is yet more pronounced for the highest arbitrage-risk stocks, which is consistent with pure, psychological biases strongly affecting the impact of arbitrage risk on the speed of correction of mispricing.

The Dollar Ahead of FOMC Target Rate Changes

I find that the U.S. dollar appreciates before contractionary monetary policy decisions at scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and depreciates before expansionary decisions. The federal funds futures rate forecasts these dollar movements with a 22% R2. A high federal funds futures spread three days in advance of an FOMC meeting not only predicts the target rate rise, but also predicts a rise in the dollar over the subsequent two-day period. This predictability is concentrated in times of high FX volatility, as the FX traders avoid arbitrage risk earlier than a few days prior to the announcement.

The MAX effect: Lottery stocks with price limits and limits to arbitrage

We modify the Bali et al.’s (2011) MAX measure (maximum daily return over the prior month) when the observed returns are capped at the daily price limit to address the issue of homogeneous MAX across stocks. Our results indicate that the modified MAX measure can be a significant predictor of future stock returns. The modified MAX effect is not a manifestation of the idiosyncratic volatility effect. We also find that the modified MAX measure could be an alternative proxy for arbitrage risk.

Risk Arbitrage Opportunities for Stock Index Options

Research about equity index options has shown that option prices systematically violate rational pricing bounds for the risk-averse representative investor. These results raise the question of whether profitable trading possibilities exist in this market. Standard portfolio optimization does not apply because of the large bid-ask spreads and low quote sizes in this market. Motivated by these complications, a system of linear inequalities is developed that completely characterizes all risk arbitrage opportunities in the presence of transaction costs and portfolio restrictions. The practical use of this system is illustrated with an application to front-month S&P500 stock index options. Small-scale portfolios seem to produce surprisingly large abnormal returns out of sample; outperformance, however, seems elusive for institutional investors because of the limited quote size, possibly reflecting data limitations.

The Market’s Assessment of the Probability of Meeting or Beating the Consensus

We investigate to what extent the market uses information that is predictive of whether earnings will meet or beat the analyst consensus forecast of earnings (MBE henceforth): measures of a firm’s incentives to engage in MBE behavior, measures of constraints on MBE, measures of past MBE practices by firm and industry, and other variables. Using the Mishkin test framework and Bonferroni-adjusted p-values, we document that of a total of 21 variables, the market inefficiently uses information in one difficulty measure and four other predictors, suggesting that strong empirically and theoretically grounded relationships concerning MBE behavior are more likely to be unraveled by the market. We further show that a portfolio based on the difference between the objective MBE probability and the market-assessed MBE probability generates significant abnormal returns. This return predictability is distinct from known sources of predictability and cannot be fully explained by arbitrage risk or transaction costs.

Short Interest and Lottery Stocks

AbstractWe find short interest‐related mispricing is strongest in lottery stocks. As stocks become more lottery‐like, arbitrage risk increases, resulting in higher overpricing (underpricing) in high (low) relative short interest (RSI) stocks. Monthly portfolio alphas are –1.61% for high RSI lottery stocks, whereas high RSI stocks with the least lottery‐like attributes show statistically insignificant alphas. Among lightly shorted stocks, lottery securities exhibit monthly alphas of 1.80%. Thus, although lottery stocks as a group typically underperform, investors can earn positive abnormal returns in lightly shorted lottery stocks. Our results suggest that lottery stocks’ greater noise trader risk and higher transactions costs impedes arbitrage in short interest‐related mispricing.

Investor sentiment and price discovery: Evidence from the pricing dynamics between the futures and spot markets

Abstract This study examines the role of investor sentiment in the pricing dynamics between the spot and futures markets. The empirical evidence suggests that investor sentiment has a positive impact on price volatility and the bid–ask spread on both the spot and futures markets, which induces higher arbitrage risk and trading costs during high sentiment periods. Consequently, during high sentiment periods, informed traders become less willing to leverage their information advantages on the futures market, which diminishes the futures markets’ leading informational role and contributions to price discovery. Our findings provide support for the theory of limits to arbitrage.

Exploiting Riskk in Risk Arbitrage: Evidence From Option Holdings of Risk Arbitrageurs

This paper examines the information content of option holdings of risk arbitrageurs after merger or acquisition announcements. A portfolio mimicking risk arbitrageurs’ post-announcement option and stock holdings delivers higher risk-adjusted returns than their stock-only portfolio. To understand the economic channel, we show that the option positions of risk arbitrageurs predict post-announcement stock price volatility and deal outcomes, but not the direction of stock prices. Hence, risk arbitrageurs do not only mechanically provide liquidity to selling shareholders but they are skilled to process the deal consummation probabilities. Indeed, risk arbitrageurs exploit the ‘risk’ in risk arbitrage by employing profitable straddles.