Practical Risk Analysis Research Articles

Revenue-sharing agreements in the live entertainment industry: a practical risk analysis framework

Revenue-sharing agreements in the live entertainment industry: a practical risk analysis framework

Effective risk management practice in Somalia Islamic banks

This paper aims to assess the degree to which Somali banks use effective risk management practices (RMPs). Furthermore, the study has explored the level of risk management practices using the original components of risk management aspects, including understanding risk and risk management, risk assessment and analysis, risk identification, risk monitoring, and credit risk analysis, with the addition of perceived trust to the original constructs of risk management aspects. The study is based on a questionnaire survey of 423 banking staff from 13 licensed banks in Somalia. The researcher adopted a questionnaire that covers six aspects of risk management with perceived trust: understanding risk and risk management, risk assessment and analysis, risk identification, risk monitoring, credit risk analysis, perceived trust, and RMPs. This study found that the staff of Somalia have a clear understanding of risk and risk management and have efficient risk identification, risk assessment, risk monitoring, credit risk analysis, perceived trust, and risk management practices. In addition, the respondents also recognize that the banks do not have deposit insurance, which is a risk to the depositors if the bank goes bankrupt. The paper’s findings are limited to the risk management aspects of the bank industry, with additional perceived trust in Somalia. The paper explores the risk management practice in the Somali bank sector. The results can be used as valuable feedback for improving risk management practice in the banking industry. This study is the first research attempt to investigate risk management practice with additional trust.

Graduate certificate on risk analysis for the Agrifood sector at the University of Buenos Aires.

Argentina has an extensive experience in the biosafety assessment of transgenic crops. The regulatory framework celebrated 30years of existence in 2021 and has pioneered the establishment of the biosafety systems in Latin America. During this period, Argentina's regulatory framework evolved to keep up with the advancements in plant and animal biotechnology and in risk assessment criteria, as new knowledge and experience was being gained. However, despite the country's agricultural tradition and experience in the adoption of innovations by the productive sector, dedicated, formal academic offerings training is lacking and this is also true for most countries in the world. Responding to this perceived need and going beyond biotechnology to include other regulated inputs used along the food production chain (chemicals, biologics, food additives, etc.), we developed a program to introduce graduates from diverse disciplines to the principles and practice of Risk Analysis (Assessment, Management and Communication) with focus on the Agrifood sector. In 2020, the School for Graduate Students of the School of Agriculture-University of Buenos Aires, approved two Certificates on Risk Analysis for the Agrifood Sector: Conceptual Bases of Risk Analysis and Methodological Tools. The first edition of the certificates was completed in December 2022 and the second one is presently ongoing. The fundaments, rationale, structure and objectives of these certificates are presented.

On the gap between theory and practice in defining and understanding risk

The risk concept is used in all types of situations and applications, ranging from technology to medicine and security issues. Many definitions of the concept exist, and there is an ongoing discussion on what is the most suitable way of defining and understanding the concept. In recent years, several overriding frameworks have been developed, aiming at providing conceptual clarity and structure and including most of the existing definitions as special cases. A key feature of these frameworks is that uncertainty is a main component of risk. Risk science literature and recognized societies and organizations have actively promoted these frameworks and definitions. Nonetheless, applied risk analysis and management is characterized by all types of definitions and understandings of risk, many that go back to conventions made several decades ago. It can be argued that there is a considerable gap between contemporary risk science knowledge and the practice of risk analysis and risk management in these areas. This paper discusses why we have this gap, why it is important to close it and how this can be achieved. A main goal of the paper is to refute the claim that the gap is due to a disconnection between risk science and the application of risk science.

The Risk Culture Framework: Introducing an Integrative Framework for Holistic Risk Analysis

Risk culture shapes individual, group, organizational, and societal risk perception, and behavior, and, therefore, is a promising concept in risk analysis. Risk culture concepts are popular among practitioners since they have the potential to integrate different research strands and provide practical guidelines. However, such concepts are still ill-defined, and their empirical foundations are limited. We introduce a new framework for risk culture derived from research on organizational culture and risk climate that aims to overcome the shortcomings of current models. The Risk Culture Framework is a 3 × 3 matrix that differentiates three influence domains (i.e., person, social context, and risk situation) and three cultural layers (i.e., observable, non-observable, and implicit factors). The framework can be applied in different contexts and fields of risk research. Each cell of the matrix can be filled with specific, proven factors relevant to the context of interest. The framework aims to enable the integration of different disciplines and approaches, to enlarge the understanding of mechanisms that shape risk perception and behavior, to navigate the conception of research studies, to provide a blueprint for comprehensive risk measures, to guide practical risk analysis, and to facilitate benchmarking for appropriate risk cultures. Considerations for the application of the Risk Culture Framework, as well as its validation through future research, are outlined.

Is risk analysis a source of misinformation? The undermining effects of uncertainty on credibility

The practice of risk analysis and management involves uncertainty. When negative risk events occur, as they often do, it’s not apparent whether the event resulted from properly conducted risk analysis and management, or from improper work, intent to mislead, or other types of misinformation. Additionally, risk management involves decision-making, such that inherently subjective values are imposed upon the scientific analysis. As a result, disagreement is an expected component of any risk analysis or management activity. The question then arises: Can properly conducted risk analysis and management be instead interpreted as misinformation? If so, what are the boundaries between properly conducted risk analysis/management and misinformation? This paper conducts an investigation of those questions by: 1) Evaluating the existing literature to define constructs of subjectivity and objectivity as they relate to risk analysis, risk management, and misinformation, 2) Defining characteristics of information generated from a properly conducted risk analysis/management and those that generate misinformation, recognizing that areas of overlap are the most concerning and in need for further investigation, 3) Demonstrating an evaluation of information using the newly defined characteristics on a case study involving energy infrastructure management, and 4) Addressing the implications for the practice of risk analysis and management.

The role of web browsing in credit risk prediction

Online mail order and online retail purchases have increased rapidly in recent years worldwide, with Covid-19 forcing almost all non-grocery shopping to move online. These practices have facilitated the availability of new data sources, such as web behavioural variables providing scope for innovation in credit risk analysis and decision practices. This paper examines new web browsing variables and incorporates them into survival analysis as predictors of probability of default (PD). Using a large sample of purchase and repayment credit accounts from a major digital retailer and financial services provider, we show that these new variables enhance the predictive accuracy of probability of default (PD) models at account level. This also holds in the absence of credit bureau data, therefore, the new information can help people who may not have a credit history (thin file) who cannot be assessed using traditional variables. Moreover, we leverage on the dynamic nature of these new web variables and explore their predictive value in short and long- term horizons. By adding macroeconomic variables, the possibility for stress-testing is provided. Our empirical findings provide insights into web browsing behaviour, highlight how the inclusion of non-standard variables can improve credit risk scoring models and lending decisions and may provide a solution to the thin files problem. Our results also suggest a direct value added to the online retail credit industry as firms should leverage the increasing trend of consumers embracing the digital environment.

Trust, confidence, familiarity, and support for land-based recirculating aquaculture facilities.

Surveys in three U.S. localities (n=523) with proposed or existing land-based aquaculture facilities probed trust's relationship with perceived net benefits and public intentions to cooperate with siting of this novel technology. The trust, confidence, and cooperation (TCC) model posits that shared values shape willingness to be vulnerable to others (trust), while past performance shapes certainty that others will behave as expected (confidence). Trust affects confidence given moral outweighs performance information, possibly varying by familiarity. Other research suggests that trust shapes benefit and risk perceptions, which drive cooperation (defined here by potentially observable behavior: voting on siting, trying to influence government decisions directly or through citizen groups, and buying or eating facility fish). Confirmatory factor analyses suggested that a two-factor model fit the trust/confidence measures better than a one-factor model or a two-factor model without inter-factor correlation, indicating (despite a strong association of trust and confidence) that they are empirically distinct. Path analyses suggested that trust had stronger direct effects on cooperation than did confidence, reflecting the TCC notion that moral information underlying trust judgments is more influential, and stronger indirect effects through benefit-risk judgments. Model fit was better than if the benefit-risk mediator was omitted. Trust in government had a small direct effect on cooperation and confidence, but a large effect on trust in the corporation, and model fit was much worse if any of these paths was omitted. Low familiarity with the project lowered both model fit and trust-confidence association. We discuss implications for risk analysis theory and practice.

Risk Evolution Study of Tailings Dam Failures Disaster Based on DEMATEL-MISM

Tailings pond engineering is a complex and extensive system with many risk factors that can trigger a dam failure. It is important to clarify the evolutionary relationships among the factors and to enhance effective management to reduce the risk of dam failure. In this paper, an effective and reliable method for analyzing the evolution of tailings pond dam failure risk by combining DEMATEL and MISM is proposed. Firstly, 35 risk factors affecting tailings pond failure were summarized. An index system for evaluating the imfluence factors of dam failure was constructed from four aspects: personnel, management, environment, and system. Secondly, the Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) was used to study the influence relationships among the factors, for analyzing and identifying the key causal factors. Subsequently, the Modified Interpretative Structural Model Method (MISM) was used to classify the cause factors into five levels of influence as well as to determine the degree of integrated influence between the risk factors. Finally, an evolutionary model of tailings pond dam failure risk was constructed based on the results of the analysis. The results of the study indicated the followings: 1) System risk accounted for 58.58% of the total weight, while personnel risk accounts for 15.51%. To maintain the stability of the tailings pond system, personnel risk should not be neglected in addition to focusing on systemic factors. 2) Rainfall intensity was an essential causal factor. Focusing on rainfall intensity and taking appropriate measures effectively reduced the risk of dam failure. The height of the dam and the depth of the seepage line accounted for a large proportion of the causal factors, making it possible to control the height of the dam and accurately monitor the depth of the seepage line to improve the stability of the dam. 3) In the tailings pond dam risk evolution model, there were 30 factors with higher mutability and correlation, which played a transitional role in risk transfer. A risk factor transfer network diagram was established for this purpose as a diagnostic map. The research results can provide new methods and ideas for tailings dam failure risk analysis research and practice.

On the foundation and use of the de minimis principle in a risk analysis context

‘De minimis risk’ is a basic concept and principle of risk analysis, which states that risks which are sufficiently small can be ignored. This principle is commonly used in practical risk analysis and related decision-making, but its rationale is debated. Recently, authors have argued that de minimis reasoning has no place in rational decision-making. The present paper provides a perspective on the foundation and use of this principle in a risk analysis context. The main aim of the paper is to gain new knowledge about the meaning and scope of the principle in view of contemporary risk science. We evaluate the extent to which different perspectives on risk can explain the disputes concerning the suitability of the principle. Current discussions of the principle have to a large extent been based on probabilistic-based frameworks, whereas the present study also addresses uncertainty-based risk perspectives. Examples are used to illustrate the discussion.

Pest Risk Analysis and Management Practices for Increasing Profitability of Lemon Production

The study aimed at assessing the pest risk and management practices of lemon production and its profitability in Tangail district of Bangladesh. Household survey was conducted by an interview schedule from 120 lemon growers who were selected as sample respondents following a proportionate random sampling technique. Lemon butterfly and dieback disease were identified as important problems in lemon cultivation. Lemon butterfly was found with the highest infestation in Elachi lemon (70.0%) and Kagozi lemon (57.0%). Dieback disease was found with the highest infestation rate of 49.3% in Elachi lemon, 38.0% in Kagozi lemon, and 33.3% in Sakara-2 variety. Almost 82.5 percent of the respondents had medium to high adoption of pest management practices. The adoption of pest management practices was positively related to the profitability of lemon cultivation. However, there is further scope to make pest management practices sustainable by enhancing the adoption of biological, cultural, and mechanical approaches.

A Comparative Study of STPA-Extension and the UFoI-E Method for Safety and Security Co-analysis

Emerging challenges in cyber-physical systems (CPSs) have been encouraging the development of safety and security co-analysis methods. These methods aim at mitigating the new risks associated with the convergence of safety-related systemic flaws and security-related cyber-attacks that have led to major losses in CPSs. Although several studies have reviewed existing safety and security co-analysis methods, only a few empirical studies have attempted to compare their strengths and limitations to guide risk analysis in practice. This paper bridges the gap between two novel safety and security co-analysis methods and their practical implementations. Namely, this paper compares a novel extension of the System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA-Extension) and the Uncontrolled Flows of Information and Energy (UFoI-E) method through a common case study. In our case study, the CPS under analysis is a conceptual autonomous ship. We conducted our comparative study as two independent teams to guarantee that the implementation of one method did not influence the other method. Furthermore, we developed a comparative framework that evaluates the relative completeness and the effort required in each analysis. Finally, we propose a tailored combination of these methods, exploiting their unique strengths to achieve more complete and cost-effective risk analysis results.

Risk Analysis Approaches to Evaluating Health Impacts from Land-Based Pollution in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Risk analysis offers a useful framework for evaluating and managing environmental health risks across different settings. In this Perspective, we question whether the principles and practice of risk analysis could be beneficial in the context of land-based pollution in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to better support risk-based decision making. Specifically, potential health and economic impacts from land-based pollution in LMICs has become an increasing issue of concern due to widespread environmental contamination from active and legacy operations, particularly informal activities that are becoming increasingly dispersed throughout communities, such as used lead acid battery recycling, artisanal and small-scale gold mining, and small-scale tanneries. However, the overall magnitude and scale of the public health problem arising from these sources remains highly uncertain and poorly characterized and cannot be compared to land-based pollution in high-income countries due to unique factors. This lack of knowledge has negatively affected the political priority and level of funding for risk mitigation actions targeting land-based pollution in these countries. Our primary objective is to raise further awareness of this emerging issue among risk analysts and decisionmakers and to advocate for more robust and focused research. Here, we highlight the types of industries and activities contributing to land-based pollution in LMICs and describe key findings and knowledge and data gaps that have hindered a fuller understanding of this issue. We also discuss how several risk assessment and risk management approaches might be useful in this resource-constrained context. We conclude that a combination of risk analysis approaches may be worthwhile, but more work is needed to determine which methods or tools will be most informative, technically feasible, and cost-effective for identifying, prioritizing, and mitigating land-based pollution in LMICs. Affected researchers, funding agencies, and local or national governments will need to work together to develop improved study designs and risk mitigation strategies.

Risks in Management of Enteral Nutrition in Intensive Care Units: A Literature Review and Narrative Synthesis.

Critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) have a high risk of developing malnutrition, and this is associated with poorer clinical outcomes. In clinical practice, nutrition, including enteral nutrition (EN), is often not prioritized. Resulting from this, risks and safety issues for patients and healthcare professionals can emerge. The aim of this literature review, inspired by the Rapid Review Guidebook by Dobbins, 2017, was to identify risks and safety issues for patient safety in the management of EN in critically ill patients in the ICU. Three databases were used to identify studies between 2009 and 2020. We assessed 3495 studies for eligibility and included 62 in our narrative synthesis. Several risks and problems were identified: No use of clinical assessment or screening nutrition assessment, inadequate tube management, missing energy target, missing a nutritionist, bad hygiene and handling, wrong time management and speed, nutritional interruptions, wrong body position, gastrointestinal complication and infections, missing or not using guidelines, understaffing, and lack of education. Raising awareness of these risks is a central aspect in patient safety in ICU. Clinical experts can use a checklist with 12 identified top risks and the recommendations drawn up to carry out their own risk analysis in clinical practice.

Variance‐based sensitivity analyses and uncertainty quantification for FEMA P‐58 consequence predictions

AbstractEarthquake loss assessment procedures for individual buildings can be a useful tool for various stakeholders, including building owners, insurers, and lenders. However, it is often not possible to provide complete information for the required inputs to these procedures because there is substantial cost and effort associated with gathering necessary data. It is therefore important to understand how different inputs to these procedures (building information/ground shaking intensity) impact the loss predictions. This can be done via sensitivity analyses. We conduct variance‐based sensitivity analyses for the FEMA P‐58 methodology, a building‐specific seismic performance assessment procedure that is making its way into seismic design and risk analysis practice. We determine how variations in different input variables of the methodology affect predictions of building loss ratio and reoccupancy time, and benchmark calculated sensitivities using the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation methodology . We also quantify additional uncertainty in consequence predictions caused by uncertainty in input variables. We use an example site in downtown Los Angeles and consider a 7‐story and a 14‐story building. Of the six inputs considered in the analyses, building loss ratio predictions are most sensitive to shaking intensity and building age, while reoccupancy time predictions are most sensitive to shaking intensity and the type of lateral system/building period. The largest additional uncertainties in building loss ratio predictions are caused by the building's lateral system or age (or both) being unknown. The results of this study provide an enhanced understanding of the interaction between inputs and consequence predictions of the P‐58 methodology.

The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective

In commemorating the 40th anniversary of Risk Analysis, this article takes a retrospective look at some of the ways in which decision analysis (as a "sibling field") has contributed to the development both of the journal, and of risk analysis as a field. I begin with some early foundational papers from the first decade of the journal's history. I then review a number of papers that have applied decision analysis to risk problems over the years, including applications of related methods such as influence diagrams, multicriteria decision analysis, and risk matrices. The article then reviews some recent trends, from roughly the last five years, and concludes with observations about the parallel evolution of risk analysis and decision analysis over the decades-especially with regard to the importance of representing multiple stakeholder perspectives, and the importance of behavioral realism in decision models. Overall, the extensive literature surveyed here supports the view that the incorporation of decision-analytic perspectives has improved the practice of risk analysis.

A hybrid risk prioritization method based on generalized TODIM and BWM for Fine-Kinney under interval type-2 fuzzy environment

The risk prioritization process is one of the most crucial steps for risk evaluation of potential hazards. The Fine-Kinney method has been commonly applied to controll risks in practice, while the classical Fine-Kinney has limitations in the determination of important degrees of risk parameters. In addition, current risk prioritization approaches for Fine-Kinney overlook the bounded rational behavior of expert within the uncertain context, especially, the high uncertain environment. The purpose of this paper is to develop a hybrid risk prioritization approach for Fine-Kinney by using generalized TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese of interactive and multi-criteria decision making), best-worst, and the interval type-2 fuzzy set. First, the linguistic terms and interval type-2 fuzzy numbers are adopted to handle the expression problem of the team members’ uncertain evaluation information. Second, in order to obtain the objective weights of risk parameters, the best-worst method is proposed to determine the relative importance degrees of risk parameters. Third, the interval type-2 fuzzy numbers are incorporated into the generalized TODIM method to determine the risk priority orders of hazards, which can simulate the experts’ bounded rational behavior under uncertain environment. Finally, a practical risk analysis example of ballast tank maintenance and the sensitivity and comparison analysis is presented to demonstrate the application of the proposed Fine-Kinney framework. The sensitivity analysis and comparison are employed to validate the reliability of the new risk prioritization model.

A quantitative risk analysis model for cascade reservoirs overtopping: principle and application

Quantitative and effective flood control operation of cascade reservoirs under emergency conditions can guarantee the safety of dams, reduce the social loss caused by flood disaster. A quantitative and practical risk analysis model of cascade dams overtopping breach (DAMSBREACH) has been developed based on the improvements to the analytical method of single dam breach. A single dam breach module, a flood routing module, a cascade dam overtopping and warning module have been assembled in the DAMSBREACH for predicting cascade dams overtopping flood and risk warning. The main improvements include a hyperbolic soil erosion model, the circular slip surface used in lateral enlargement modeling, and a numerical algorithm that uses velocity increment and allows straight forward calculation for the breach flood hydrograph. The DAMSBREACH is applied to Xiaerxia–Dawei–Shuangjiangkou of three cascade dams, which located in the upper reaches of Dadu river in southwest of China. The results show that only under the condition to open all release structures of Shuangjiangkou reservoir while Dawei dam starts to break, Shuangjiangkou reservoir will not be overtopped and the highest water level reaches 2507.56 m that is lower than the elevation of dam crest 2510.00 m. The integrated risk of cascade reservoirs has a direct relationship with the initial water level, uncertainty flood from the upstream, the discharge capacity and warning time of the reservoir. The risk analysis model of cascade dams overtopping break can help the decision-makers choose the best operation mode according to the characteristic of the reservoir under different emergency operating conditions.

Toward a conceptual framework for food safety criteria: Analyzing evidence practices using the case of plant protection products

Food safety has a significant influence on food markets and is of great societal importance because it protects human health and life. Most studies presume that the presence or absence of food safety can be objectively assessed based on data from natural sciences and might be further interpreted and perceived in different ways; however, there is no consensus on the definition of food safety. Disputes within the scientific community and increasing public discourse suggest that there is no generally accepted definition of what is “safe” or “unsafe”. This paper introduces a framework that describes food safety in a broader sense, using the example of plant protection products, by identifying different evidence practices through the classification of criteria from various research fields. Data were collected in an integrative literature review. Criteria for assessing food safety were classified and collected within a conceptual framework that acknowledged the multidisciplinarity of knowledge bases. The analysis highlights the questions that arise when determining these criteria. We conclude that obtaining a generalized definition of food safety is not possible. Instead, our results showed the determination of food safety by criteria at different levels: science-based criteria at knowledge and value levels that result in standards and consumer-based criteria at knowledge and value levels that result in behavior. A better understanding of food safety criteria helps to show deficits in the current risk analysis practice and points to solutions for more consistent regulations, leading to more stable market conditions and a stronger mutual understanding.

A systematic review of quantitative risk analysis in construction of mega projects

Abstract Mega projects (MP) require efficient management of risks during their construction. Therefore, it is crucial to identify any possible deviations towards meeting their objectives. Such deviation forced MP to be delivered behind schedule and over budget. According references, MP does not require only qualitative analysis but requires an accurate quantitative analysis based on knowledge and practice. Thus, this paper aims to undergo a systematic review of quantitative analysis literature in construction of worldwide MP, with the utmost aim to improve contractors quantitative risk analysis practices in the presence of uncertainty. A time line was produced which shows the process of quantitative risk analysis in this literature including the past six years from 2013 to 2018. This was followed by a critical analysis in order to account for quantitative risk analysis techniques highlighted throughout literature sources. Furthermore, the paper reviews the literature of worldwide mega projects by which quantitative risk analysis process was practiced. It was observed that Monte Carlo analysis technique has succeeded in supporting project managers in allocating deviations in the objectives of MP. The paper adds value to practitioners using the process of quantitative risk analysis as well as contractors working on construction of MP.