Risk Adjustment Research Articles

Increased Risk and Unique Clinical Course of Patient Safety Indicator-3 Pressure Injuries Among COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients.

The COVID-19 pandemic introduced unique challenges to healthcare systems, particularly in relation to patient safety and adverse events during hospitalization. There is limited understanding of COVID-19's association with some patient safety indicators (PSIs). This study aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19 infection on the rate of PSI-3 events and its implications on quality metrics. We compared PSI-3 event rates between COVID-19-infected and uninfected patients and examined the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 patients experiencing PSI-3 events. This is a retrospective study at Mayo Clinic hospitals between January 2020 and February 2022, analyzing patients meeting PSI-3 denominator eligibility criteria. PSI-3 events were identified using AHRQ WinQI software. Patients were categorized based on COVID-19 status. Patient demographics, characteristics, and PSI-3 rates were compared. A case series analysis described clinical details of COVID-19 patients with PSI-3 events. Of 126,781 encounters meeting PSI-3 criteria, 8674 (6.8%) had acute COVID-19 infection. COVID-19-infected patients were older, more likely to be male, non-white, and had private insurance. PSI-3 rates were significantly higher in COVID-19 patients (0.21% versus 0.06%, P < 0.0001), even after risk adjustment (adjusted risk ratio, 3.24, P < 0.0001). The case series of 17 COVID-19 patients with PSI-3 events showed distinctive clinical characteristics, including higher medical device-related pressure injuries, and greater predisposition for head, face, and neck region. Acute COVID-19 infection correlates with higher PSI-3 event rates. Current quality indicators may require adaptation to address the pandemic's complexities and impact on patient safety. Further research is needed to comprehensively understand the intricate relationship between COVID-19 and patient outcomes.

Variational Bayes machine learning for risk adjustment of general outcome indicators with examples in urology

Risk adjustment is often necessary for outcome quality indicators (QIs) to provide fair and accurate feedback to healthcare professionals. However, traditional risk adjustment models are generally oversimplified and not equipped to disentangle complex factors influencing outcomes that are out of a healthcare professional’s control. We present VIRGO, a novel variational Bayes model trained on routinely collected, large administrative datasets to risk-adjust outcome QIs. VIRGO uses detailed demographics, diagnosis, and procedure codes to provide individualized risk adjustment and explanations on patient factors affecting outcomes. VIRGO achieves state-of-the-art on external datasets and features capabilities of uncertainty expression, explainable features, and counterfactual analysis capabilities. VIRGO facilitates risk adjustment by explaining how patient factors led to adverse outcomes and expresses the uncertainty of each prediction, allowing healthcare professionals to not only explore patient factors with unexplained variance that are associated with worse outcomes but also reflect on the quality of their clinical practice.

Adjusting the risk-adjustment: Accounting for variation between organisations in the responsiveness of their expenditure to need

There is concern that basing healthcare budgets on risk adjustment estimates derived from historical utilisation data may reinforce patterns of unmet need. We propose a method to avoid this, based on a measure of how closely local health organisations align resources to the needs of their populations. We refer to this measure as the ‘responsiveness of expenditure to need’ and estimate it using national person-level data on use of acute hospital and secondary mental health services in England. We find large variation in responsiveness in both services and show that higher expenditure responsiveness in mental health is associated with fewer suicides. We then re-estimate the national risk-adjustment model removing the data from the organisations with the lowest expenditure responsiveness to need. As expected, higher need individuals are estimated to have higher expenditure needs when less responsive organisations are removed from the estimation of the risk-adjustment. Removal of organisations with below-average responsiveness results in the neediest deciles of individuals having an extra £163 (7%) annual need for acute hospital care and an additional £79 (27%) annual need for mental health services. The application of this approach to risk adjustment would result in more resources being directed towards organisations serving higher-need populations.

EXPRESS: On the Valuation and Monetization Roles of the Rolling Intrinsic Policy for Merchant Commodity Storage

Merchants use the rolling intrinsic policy to value commodity storage assets and monetize the values they attribute to these assets. A recent study ascribes to informational inconsistency two discrepancies between its partial monetization findings and the known excellent valuation performance of this method: (i) The rolling intrinsic policy can perform worse than the intrinsic policy and (ii) it appears to be far from optimal. This paper contends that this claim generally confounds informational inconsistency and the risk adjustment that underpins the common no arbitrage valuation of this policy. In particular, lack of risk adjustment in that investigation explains at least the first difference and informational inconsistency cannot be associated with the second dissimilarity in about four percent of its instances. Further, this work establishes that equipping the rolling intrinsic policy with forward trading rules out the former disparity, whereas the latter one in general can persist. Finally, it uses known results to argue that in realistic settings this extended policy incurs small monetization losses on average for storage assets acquired at a fair price and outlines alternative monetization methods with potentially improved effectiveness.

Neonatologist staffing is related to the inter-hospital variation of risk-adjusted mortality of very low birth weight infants in Korea

This study investigated whether hospital factors, including patient volume, unit level, and neonatologist staffing, were associated with variations in standardized mortality ratios (SMR) adjusted for patient factors in very-low-birth-weight infants (VLBWIs). A total of 15,766 VLBWIs born in 63 hospitals between 2013 and 2020 were analyzed using data from the Korean Neonatal Network cohort. SMRs were evaluated after adjusting for patient factors. High and low SMR groups were defined as hospitals outside the 95% confidence limits on the SMR funnel plot. The mortality rate of VLBWIs was 12.7%. The average case-mix SMR was 1.1; calculated by adjusting for six significant patient factors: antenatal steroid, gestational age, birth weight, sex, 5-min Apgar score, and congenital anomalies. Hospital factors of the low SMR group (N = 10) had higher unit levels, more annual volumes of VLBWIs, more number of neonatologists, and fewer neonatal intensive care beds per neonatologist than the high SMR group (N = 13). Multi-level risk adjustment revealed that only the number of neonatologists showed a significant fixed-effect on mortality besides fixed patient risk effect and a random hospital effect. Adjusting for the number of neonatologists decreased the variance partition coefficient and random-effects variance between hospitals by 11.36%. The number of neonatologists was independently associated with center-to-center differences in VLBWI mortality in Korea after adjustment for patient risks and hospital factors.

Mid-term Waitlist and Posttransplant Outcomes With Hepatitis C-positive Donor Hearts.

This study evaluates the clinical trends and impact of hepatitis C virus-positive (HCV+) donors on waitlist and posttransplant outcomes after heart transplantation. The United Network for Organ Sharing registry was queried to identify adult waitlisted and transplanted patients from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2022. In the waitlist analysis, the candidates were stratified into 2 cohorts based on whether they were willing to accept HCV+ donor offers. Waitlist outcomes included 1-y cumulative incidences of transplantation and death/delisting. In the posttransplant analysis, the recipients were stratified into 2 cohorts with and without HCV nucleic acid test (NAT)-positive donors. Outcomes included 1- and 4-y posttransplant survival. Propensity score-matching was performed. Risk adjustment was performed using multivariable Cox regression. During the study period, the number of centers using HCV NAT+ donors increased from 1 to 65 centers, along with the number of transplants. In the waitlist analysis, 26 648 waitlisted candidates were analyzed, and 4535 candidates (17%) were approved to accept HCV+ donors. Approval to accept HCV+ donors was associated with a higher likelihood of transplantation and a lower likelihood of death/delisting within 1 y of waitlisting. In the posttransplant analysis, 21 131 recipients were analyzed, and 997 recipients (4.7%) received HCV NAT+ hearts. The 1- and 4-y posttransplant survival were comparable between the recipients of HCV NAT+ and NAT- donors. Furthermore, the similar 1- and 4-y posttransplant survival persisted in the propensity score-matched comparison and multivariable Cox regression analysis. Utilization of HCV+ donors is rising. Heart transplants using HCV+ donors are associated with improved waitlist and comparable posttransplant outcomes.

A Framework for the Design of Risk-Adjustment Models in Health care Provider Payment Systems.

Prospective payments for health care providers require adequate risk adjustment (RA) to address systematic variation in patients' health care needs. However, the design of RA for provider payment involves many choices and difficult trade-offs between incentives for risk selection, incentives for cost control, and feasibility. Despite a growing literature, a comprehensive framework of these choices and trade-offs is lacking. This article aims to develop such a framework. Using literature review and expert consultation, we identify key design choices for RA in the context of provider payment and subsequently categorize these choices along two dimensions: (a) the choice of risk adjusters and (b) the choice of payment weights. For each design choice, we provide an overview of options, trade-offs, and key references. By making design choices and associated trade-offs explicit, our framework facilitates customizing RA design to provider payment systems, given the objectives and other characteristics of the context of interest.

Hospital Readmissions Among Infants With Neonatal Opioid Withdrawal Syndrome

Although cases of neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome (NOWS) increased 5-fold in recent years, no study has examined national hospital readmission rates for these infants. To examine hospital readmissions for infants with and without NOWS. This retrospective cohort study analyzed serial cross-sectional samples of US hospital discharge records from the Nationwide Readmissions Database for calendar years 2016 to 2020. Infants with NOWS were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. The data analysis was performed between January 5, 2023, and May 6, 2024. Neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome. Survey-weighted logistic regression was used to examine 90-day all-cause and cause-specific hospital readmissions. Multivariable models adjusted for sex, low birth weight, gestational age, multiple gestation, type of insurance, and year of birth. Of the 13 855 246 newborns identified in this weighted analysis, 89 018 (0.6%) were diagnosed with NOWS, of whom 53.8% were male and 81.1% born full-term (>36 weeks gestation). The 90-day all-cause readmission rate was 4.2% for infants with NOWS compared with 3.0% for those without NOWS (P < .001). After risk adjustment, the odds of all-cause readmission were higher among infants with NOWS (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08-1.29). Infants with NOWS had significantly higher odds of readmissions for seizures (AOR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.01-2.46), failure to thrive (AOR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.36-2.93), traumatic brain injury (AOR, 2.95; 95% CI, 1.76-4.93), and skull fractures (AOR 3.72; 95% CI, 2.33-5.93). Infants with NOWS had higher odds of receiving a diagnosis of confirmed maltreatment (AOR, 4.26; 95% CI, 2.19-8.27), including for neglect (AOR, 14.18; 95% CI, 5.55-36.22) and physical abuse (AOR, 2.42; 95% CI, 0.93-6.29); however, the latter finding was not statistically significant. In this nationally representative cohort study, infants with NOWS were at increased risk of readmission for any cause as well as for trauma and confirmed maltreatment. These findings may in part reflect the dual stressors that mothers with opioid use disorder face in caring for a newborn with NOWS in the context of a substance use disorder and underscore the need for family-based, in-home services that focus concurrently on substance use treatment and parenting support.

Does Timing Matter? The Effect of Intensive Care Unit Arrival Timing on Elective Cardiac Surgery

BackgroundDue to staffing changes at scheduled intervals and decreases in essential staff in the evenings, late intensive care unit (ICU) arrivals may be at risk for suboptimal outcomes. Utilizing a regional collaborative, we sought to determine the effect of ICU arrival timing on outcomes in elective isolated coronary artery bypass. MethodsAdults undergoing elective, isolated coronary artery bypass from 17 hospitals between 2013 and 2023 were identified. Patients with missing predicted risk of mortality or missing ICU arrival time were excluded. Late ICU arrival time was defined as between 6:00 pm and 6:00 am. Hierarchical logistic regression with appropriate predicted risk scores was utilized for outcome risk adjustment. ResultsWe identified 11,638 patients, with 972 (8.4%) experiencing late ICU arrival. Late ICU arrival patients had higher predicted risk of morbidity or mortality (8.2%; [interquartile range {IQR}, 5.6%, 12.0%] vs 7.7% [IQR, 5.5%, 11.5%], P = .048) compared with early ICU arrival patients with longer median cardiopulmonary bypass times (96 minutes [IQR, 78, 119] vs 93 [IQR, 73, 116], P < .001). Late ICU arrival patients experienced more unadjusted complications including prolonged ventilation (7.7% vs 4.2%, P < .001) and operative mortality (2.0% vs 1.1%, P = .02), although no difference in failure-to-rescue (11.0% vs 10.4%, P = .84). Logistic regression with risk adjustment demonstrated late ICU arrival as a predictor of prolonged ventilation (odds ratio, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.12-1.99], P = .006). ConclusionsAfter adjustment, late ICU arrivals experienced higher rates of prolonged ventilation, although this did not translate to failure-to-rescue.

Prosthetic conduits have worse outcomes compared with great saphenous vein conduits in femoropopliteal and infrapopliteal bypass in patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia

ObjectiveSingle segment great saphenous vein (SSGSV) traditionally has been considered the gold standard conduit for infrainguinal bypass. There are data supporting similar outcomes with prosthetic femoral-popliteal bypass. Moreover, some investigators have advocated for prosthetic conduit for femoral tibial bypass when GSV is inadequate or unavailable. We sought to evaluate long-term outcomes of infrainguinal bypass based on conduit type for treating chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI). MethodsData from the Best Endovascular vs Best Surgical Therapy of Patients with CLTI multicenter, prospective, randomized controlled trial, comparing infrainguinal bypass with endovascular therapy in patients with CLTI, were evaluated. In this as-treated analysis, we compared outcomes of infrainguinal bypass using prosthetic, alternative autogenous vein (AAV), and cryopreserved vein (Cryo) with SSGSV bypass. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable analyses were performed to examine the associations of conduit type with major adverse limb events (MALE), reinterventions, above-ankle amputations, and all-cause death rates. ResultsIn total, 784 bypasses were analyzed (120 prosthetic, 33 AAV, 21 Cryo, AND 610 SSGSV). For prosthetic and SSGSV, the distribution was 357 femoropopliteal (93 prosthetic and 264 GSV) and 373 infrapopliteal (27 prosthetic and 346 GSV). The mean age for the overall cohort was 67.1 years; 27.4% were female, 29.9% were non-White, and 11.5% were of Hispanic ethnicity. Patients undergoing prosthetic bypass were older (69.2 years vs 66.7 years); more likely to have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (22.5% vs 14.0%), prior coronary artery bypass grafting (88.9% vs 66.5%), and prior stroke (23.3% vs 14%); but less often were of Hispanic ethnicity (5.8% vs 12.6%) and had diabetes (59.2% vs 71.3%) (P < .05 for all). For femoropopliteal bypass, use of prosthetic conduit was associated with increased major reinterventions at 3 years overall (19.0% vs 11.5%; P = .06) and on risk-adjusted analysis (hazard ratio [HR], 2.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-4.2; P = .028). No significant differences in MALE or death, above-ankle amputation, or death were observed. Outcomes were similar for bypasses to above-knee popliteal targets and below-knee popliteal targets. For infrapopliteal bypass, the use of a prosthetic conduit was associated with increased major reintervention (25.3% vs 10.3%; P = .005), death (68.6% vs 34.8%; P < .001), and MALE or death (90.0% vs 48.1%; P < .001) at 3 years. After risk adjustment, infrapopliteal bypass with prosthetic conduit was associated with higher major reintervention (HR, 4.14; 95% CI, 1.36-12.6; P = .012), above-ankle amputation (HR, 4.64; 95% CI, 1.59-13.5; P = .005), death (HR, 2.96; 95% CI, 1.4-6.2; P = .004), and MALE or death (HR, 3.59; 95% CI, 1.64-7.86; P = .001) compared with bypass with SSGSV. Overall, AAV had similar outcomes at 3 years as SSGSV; however, Cryo had significantly higher above-ankle amputation (50.0% vs 12.8%) (HR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.68-10.5; P = .002), major reintervention (41.9% vs 10.7%) (HR, 3.12; 95% CI, 1.18-8.22; P = .02), and MALE/death (88.8% vs 37.8%) (HR, 2.96; 95% CI, 1.43-6.14; P = .004). ConclusionsThe use of a prosthetic conduit in infrainguinal bypass is associated with inferior outcomes compared with bypass using SSGSV, particularly for bypass to infrapopliteal targets. Cryo grafts were infrequent and also demonstrated inferior outcomes. SSGSV remains the preferred conduit of choice for infrainguinal bypass.

Procurement Trends, Indications, and Outcomes of Heart-Lung Transplantation in the Contemporary Era.

Evolving trends in organ procurement and technological innovation prompted an investigation into recent trends, indications, and outcomes following combined heart-lung transplantation (HLTx). The United Network for Organ Sharing database was queried for all adult (≥18 years) HLTx performed between July 1, 2013 and June 30, 2023. Patients with previous transplants were excluded. The primary endpoint was the effect of donor, recipient, and transplantation characteristics on 1- and 5-year survival. Secondary analyses included a comparison of HLTx at high- and low-volume centers, an assessment of HLTx following donation after circulatory death (DCD), and an evaluation of HLTx volume over time. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to assess factors associated with mortality. Temporal trends were evaluated with linear regression. After exclusions, 319 patients were analyzed, of whom 5 (1.6%) were DCD. HLTx volume increased from 2013 to 2023 (p<0.001). One- and 5-year survival following HLTx was 84.0% and 59.5%, respectively. One-year survival was higher for patients undergoing HLTx at a high-volume center (88.3%vs. 77.9%; p=0.012). After risk adjustment, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support 72 h posttransplant and predischarge dialysis were associated with increased 1-year mortality (HR=3.19, 95% CI=1.86-5.49 and HR=3.47, 95% CI=2.17-5.54, respectively) and 5-year mortality (HR=2.901, 95% CI=1.679-5.011 and HR=3.327, 95% CI=2.085-5.311, respectively), but HLTx at a high-volume center was not associated with either. HLTx volume has resurged, with DCD HLTx emerging as a viable procurement strategy. Factors associated with 1- and 5-year survival may be used to guide postoperative management following HLTx.

Retroperitoneal vs transperitoneal approach for nonruptured open conversion after endovascular aneurysm repair

ObjectiveSeveral studies comparing the transperitoneal (TP) and retroperitoneal (RP) approach for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair suggest that the RP approach may result in lower rates of perioperative mortality and morbidity. However, data comparing these approaches for open conversion are lacking. This study aims to evaluate the association between the type of approach and outcomes following open conversion after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). MethodsWe included all patients who underwent open conversion after EVAR between 2010 and 2022 in the Vascular Quality Initiative. Patients presenting with rupture were excluded. The primary outcome was perioperative mortality. The secondary outcomes included perioperative complications and 5-year mortality. Inverse probability weighting was used to adjust for factors with statistical or clinical significance. Logistic regression was used to assess perioperative mortality and complications in the weighted cohort. The 5-year mortality was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. ResultsWe identified 660 patients (39% RP) who underwent open conversion after EVAR. Compared with TP, RP patients were older (75 years [interquartile range, 70-79 years] vs 73.5 years [interquartile range, 68-79 years]; P < .001), and more frequently had prior myocardial infarction (33% vs 22%; P = .002). Compared with the TP approach, the RP approach was used less frequently in cases of associated iliac aneurysm (19% vs 27%; P = .026), but more frequently with associated renal bypass (7.8% vs 1.7%; P < .001) and by high-volume physicians (highest quintile, >7 AAA annually: 41% vs 17%; P < .001) and in high-volume centers (highest quintile, >35 AAA annually: 36% vs 20%; P < .001). RP patients, compared with TP patients, were less likely to have external iliac or femoral distal anastomosis (8.2% vs 21%; P < .001), and an infrarenal clamp (25% vs 36%; P < .001). Unadjusted perioperative mortality was not significantly different between approaches (RP vs TP: 3.8% vs 7.5%; P = .077). After risk adjustment, RP patients had similar odds of perioperative mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22-1.10; P = .082), and lower odds of intestinal ischemia (aOR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.08-0.86; P = .028) and in-hospital reintervention (aOR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.22-0.85; P = .015). No significant differences were found in the other perioperative complications or 5-year mortality (aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.47-1.32; P = .37). ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the RP approach may be associated with a lower adjusted odds of perioperative complications compared with the TP approach. The RP approach should be considered for open conversion after EVAR when feasible.

Outcomes of surgery for inflammatory bowel disease among patients with psychiatric disorders

BackgroundPsychiatric disorders (PDs) are common among patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Brain-gut dysfunction and psychotropic medications may have adverse effects on postoperative outcomes in patients with IBD. This study aimed to evaluate the association between PD and outcomes after surgery for IBD. MethodsThis was a retrospective study of adult patients with IBD who underwent small bowel, colon, or rectal resection in the 2016 to 2021 Nationwide Readmissions Database. PDs, including psychotic, mood, anxiety, eating, sleep, personality, and childhood-onset behavioral disorders, were identified. Records about colorectal cancer were excluded. Multivariate regressions were used to examine the association of PD with outcomes. ResultsOf 81,955 patients included in the study, 21,800 (26.6%) had PDs. On risk adjustment, PD was associated with significantly increased postoperative ileus (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.11; 95% CI, 1.03–1.19), length of stay (β, +1.4 days; 95% CI, 1.1–1.7), and costs (β, +$2100; 95% CI, $1200-$3100) compared with no PD. In addition, patients with PDs experienced increased odds of nonhome discharge (AOR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.12–1.34) and 30-day readmission (AOR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.22–1.43). Over the study period, the prevalence of PDs significantly increased from 24.3% to 28.5% (P < .001), along with an increase in the rates of ileus among patients with PDs (8.1%−15.8%; P < .001). ConclusionPD is associated with a significantly greater burden of adverse clinical and financial outcomes after IBD operations. Given the growing prevalence of mental health conditions among patients with IBD, further efforts to optimize preoperative psychiatric care may enhance the quality of colorectal surgery.

Hospital volume does not mitigate the impact of area socioeconomic deprivation on heart transplantation outcomes.

While structural socioeconomic inequity has been linked with inferior health outcomes, some have postulated reduced access to high-quality care to be the mediator. We assessed whether treatment at high-volume centers(HVC) would mitigate the adverse impact of area deprivation on heart transplantation(HT) outcomes. All HT recipients ≥18years were identified in the 2005-2022 Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation was assessed using the previously validated Area Deprivation Index. Recipients with scores in the highest quintile were considered Most Deprived (others: Less Deprived). Hospitals in the highest quartile by cumulative center volume (≥21 transplants/year) were classified as HVC. The primary outcome was post-transplant survival. Of 38,022 HT recipients, 7,579 (20%) were considered Most Deprived. Following risk adjustment, Most Deprived demonstrated inferior survival at 3(hazard ratio[HR] 1.14, 95%confidence interval[CI] 1.06-1.21) and 5 years following transplantation (HR 1.13, CI 1.07-1.20). Similarly, Most Deprived faced greater graft failure at 3(HR 1.14, CI 1.06-1.22) and 5 years (HR 1.13, CI 1.07-1.20). Evaluating patients transplanted at HVC, Most Deprived continued to face greater mortality at 3(HR 1.10, CI 1.01-1.21) and 5 years (HR 1.10, CI 1.01-1.19). The interaction between Most Deprived status and care at HVC was not significant, such that transplantation at HVC did not ameliorate the survival disparity between Most and Less Deprived. Area socioeconomic disadvantage is independently associated with inferior survival. Transplantation at HVC did not eliminate this inequity. Future efforts are needed to increase engagement with longitudinal follow-up care and address systemic root causes to improve outcomes.

Association of Surgeon Self-Reported Gender and Surgical Outcomes in Current US Practice.

This study aimed to evaluate the association of surgeon self-reported gender on clinical outcomes in contemporary US surgical practice. Previous research has suggested that there are potentially improved surgical outcomes for female surgeons, yet the underlying causal path for this association remains unclear. Using the Vizient Clinical Database(2016-2021), 39 operations categorized by the CDC's National Healthcare Safety Network were analyzed. The surgeon self-reported gender as the primary exposure. The primary outcome was a composite of in-hospital death, complications, and/or 30-day readmission. Multivariable logistic regression and propensity score matching were used for risk adjustment. The analysis included 4,882,784 patients operated on by 11,955 female surgeons (33% of surgeons performing 21% of procedures) and 23,799 male surgeons (67% of surgeons performing 79% of procedures). Female surgeons were younger (45±9 vs males-53±11y; P <0.0001) and had lower operative volumes. Unadjusted incidence of the primary outcome was 13.6%(10.7%-female surgeons, 14.3%-male surgeons; P <0.0001). After propensity matching, the primary outcome occurred in 13.0% of patients [12.9%-female, 13.0%-male; OR (M vs. F)=1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03; P =0.001), with female surgeons having small statistical associations with lower mortality and complication rates but not readmissions. Procedure-specific analyses revealed inconsistent or no surgeon-gender associations. In the largest analysis to date, surgeon self-reported gender had a small statistical, clinically marginal correlation with postoperative outcomes. The variation across surgical specialties and procedures suggests that the association with surgeon gender is unlikely causal for the observed differences in outcomes. Patients should be reassured that surgeon gender alone does not have a clinically meaningful impact on their outcome.

Within-hospital Temporal Clustering of Postoperative Complications and Implications for Safety Monitoring and Benchmarking Using ACS-NSQIP Data.

To determine the extent to which within-hospital temporal clustering of postoperative complications is observed in the American College of Surgeons, National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP). ACS-NSQIP relies on periodic and on-demand reports for quality benchmarking. However, if rapid increases in postoperative complication rates (clusters) are common, other reporting methods might be valuable additions to the program. This article focuses on estimating the incidence of within-hospital temporal clusters. ACS-NSQIP data from 1,547,440 patients, in 425 hospitals, over a 2-year period was examined. Hospital-specific Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the incidence of mortality, morbidity, and surgical site infection (SSI) over a 30-day postoperative period, with risk adjustment for patient and procedure and with additional adjustments for linear trend, day-of-week, and season. Clusters were identified using scan statistics, and cluster counts were compared, using unpaired and paired t tests, for different levels of adjustment and when randomization of cases across time eliminated all temporal influences. Temporal clusters were rarely observed. When clustering was adjusted only for patient and procedure risk, an annual average of 0.31, 0.85, and 0.51 clusters were observed per hospital for mortality, morbidity, and SSI, respectively. The number of clusters dropped after adjustment for linear trend, day-of-week, and season (0.31-0.24; P = 0.012; 0.85-0.80; P = 0.034; and 0.51-0.36; P < 0.001; using paired t tests) for mortality, morbidity, and SSI, respectively. There was 1 significant difference in the number of clusters when comparing data with all adjustments and after data were randomized (0.24 and 0.25 for mortality; P = 0.853; 0.80 and 0.82 for morbidity; P = 0.529; and 0.36 and 0.46 [randomized data had more clusters] for SSI; P = 0.001; using paired t tests) for mortality, morbidity, and SSI, respectively. Temporal clusters of postoperative complications were rarely observed in ACS-NSQIP data. The described methodology may be useful in assessing clustering in other surgical arenas.

How Child Health Financing and Payment Mitigate and Perpetuate Structural Racism

Health financing for children and youth comes mainly from commercial sources (especially, a parent’s employer-sponsored insurance) and public sources (especially, Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Plan [CHIP]). These 2 sources serve populations that differ in race and ethnicity. This inherent segregation perpetuates a system of disparities in health and health care. Medicaid (and CHIP) have become the largest single provider of health insurance to US children and youth, currently insuring over 50% of all children and youth, with even higher rates for children of racial and ethnic minorities. Medicaid provides substantial benefit to the populations it insures, with good evidence of both short- and long-term improved health and developmental outcomes, and better health and well-being as adults. Nonetheless, some characteristics of Medicaid, especially the major state-by-state variation in eligibility, enrollment practices, and covered services, along with persistent low payment rates, have helped to maintain a separate and unequal health program for racial and ethnic minority children and youth. Several changes in Medicaid—including linking CHIP more closely with Medicaid, strengthening national standards of payment and care, assuring coverage of all children, and incorporating social and family risk adjustment—could make the program even more beneficial and diminish racial differences in child health financing.

Outcomes Following Neonatal Cardiac Surgery in Cape Town, South Africa.

Neonatal Cardiac Surgery has developed significantly since its advent, with improved outcomes, survival, and physiological repair. Limited programs offer neonatal cardiac surgery in emerging economies. We report our experience with neonates undergoing cardiac surgery in our cardiac surgery program. We performed a secondary data analysis on all neonates aged ≤ 30 days undergoing congenital cardiac surgery from April 1, 2017 to March 31, 2020, including outcomes up to 30-days post-surgery. A total of 859 patients underwent cardiac surgery at our center, of these 81 (9.4%) were neonates. The proportion of neonates increased annually (8.7%, 9.6%, and 10.2%). There were 49 (60%) male patients, and 32 (40%) had surgery in the second week of life. Fourteen (17%) were premature, four (5%) had a major chromosomal abnormality, five (6%) a major medical illness, and eight (10%) a major noncardiac structural anomaly. The Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS) categorization of surgery was predominantly RACHS 3; n = 28 (35%) and 4; n = 23 (29%). Hours in the intensive care unit (ICU) were extensive; median 189 [interquartile range (IQR): 114-286] as were hours of ventilation; median 95 [IQR 45-163]. Almost 60% (n = 48) of procedures were complicated by sepsis, as defined in our database. The in-hospital mortality rate was 16% (n = 13); the 30-day mortality rate was 19.8% (n = 16). The proportion of neonates in our service increased over the period. Focused strategies to shorten prolonged ICU stay and decrease rates of bacterial sepsis in neonates are needed. A multidisciplinary, collaborative heart-team approach is crucial for best outcomes.

Trends in Complications Among Patients Undergoing Aortic Valve Replacement in the United States.

The treatment of severe aortic stenosis has evolved considerably since the introduction of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), yet trends in complications for patients undergoing TAVR or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) at a national level have yet to be evaluated. We performed a retrospective cohort study using Medicare data to evaluate temporal trends in complications among beneficiaries, aged ≥65 years, treated with elective isolated transfemoral TAVR or SAVR between 2012 and 2019. The study end point was the occurrence of a major complication (composite outcome) during index and up to 30 days after. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess odds of complications for TAVR and SAVR, individually over time, and for TAVR versus SAVR, over time. The cohort included 211 212 patients (mean±SD age, 78.6±7.3 years; 45.0% women). Complication rates during index following elective isolated aortic valve replacement decreased from 49% in 2012 to 22% in 2019. These reductions were more pronounced for TAVR (41% to >19%, Δ=22%) than SAVR (51% to >47%, Δ=4%). After risk adjustment, the risk of any complication with TAVR was 47% (P<0.0001) lower compared with SAVR in 2012, and 78% (P<0.0001) lower in 2019. TAVR was independently associated with reduced odds of complications each year compared with 2012, with the magnitude of benefit increasing over time (2013 versus 2012: odds ratio [OR], 0.89 [95% CI, 0.81-0.97]; 2019 versus 2012: OR, 0.35 [95% CI, 0.33-0.38]). These findings are consistent for complications up to 30 days from index. Between 2012 and 2019, the risk of complications after aortic valve replacement among Medicare beneficiaries decreased significantly, with larger absolute and relative changes among patients treated with TAVR than SAVR.

Disparities in outcomes of colorectal cancer surgery among adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities.

Disparities in colorectal cancer screening have been documented among people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD). However, surgical outcomes in this population have yet to be studied. The present work aimed to evaluate the association of IDD with outcomes following colorectal cancer resection. All adults undergoing resection for colorectal cancer in the 2011-2020 National Inpatient Sample were identified. Multivariable linear and logistic regression models were developed to examine the association of IDD with risk factors as well as outcomes including mortality, complications, costs, length of stay (LOS), and non-home discharge. The study is limited by its retrospective nature and did not capture disease staging or time of diagnosis. Among 722,736 patients undergoing colorectal cancer resection, 2,846 (0.39%) had IDD. Compared to patients without IDD, IDD patients were younger and had a higher burden of comorbidities. IDD status was associated with increased odds of non-elective admission (AOR 1.40 [95% CI 1.14-1.73]) and decreased odds of treatment at high-volume centers (AOR 0.64 [95% CI 0.51-0.81]). Furthermore, IDD patients experienced significantly greater LOS (9 vs 6 days, p<0.001) and hospitalization costs ($23,500 vs $19,800, p<0.001) relative to neurotypical patients. Upon risk adjustment, IDD was significantly associated with 2-fold increased odds of mortality (AOR 2.34 [95% CI 1.48-3.71]), 1.4-fold increase in complications (AOR 1.41 [95% CI 1.15-1.74]), and 6.8-fold increase in non-home discharge (AOR 6.83 [95% CI 5.46-8.56]). IDD patients undergoing colorectal cancer resection experience increased likelihood of non-elective admission, adverse clinical outcomes, and resource use. Our findings highlight the need for more accessible screening and patient-centered interventions to improve quality of surgical care for this at-risk population.