Rising Summer Temperatures Research Articles

Assessment of non-stationary tree growth responses in the forest-tundra and southern taiga of central Siberia

Anthropogenically induced climate change largely affects the functioning of vegetation communities worldwide. In the world's largest land biome, the boreal forest, a persistent decoupling of tree growth from rising summer temperatures has been recorded in recent decades. This so-called ‘Divergence Problem’ (DP) has been studied over the past 30 years, yet the causes and spatial patterns within the boreal forest zone are not well understood. Here, we present tree-ring evidence on varying DP in Larix gmelinii from the globally northernmost forest island on Taymyr Peninsula and Larix sibirica from the southern taiga in central Siberia. Tree-ring width and maximum latewood density data reveal DP to be substantially stronger in the south indicating that growth-climate relationships in Siberian larch passed beyond a tipping point under warmer climate and increased anthropogenic pressure. In the north, the temperature signal remained strong and temporally stable underscoring the skill of tree-ring chronologies for long-term climate reconstructions. These findings highlight the heterogeneity of tree growth responses to global warming within the boreal forest zone, from which spatially varying consequences for carbon and water cycle dynamics must be expected. Our study emphasizes the importance of updating tree-ring chronologies in remote regions within boreal forest zone to foster understanding of spatiotemporal patterns in biomass allocation, permafrost degradation, and DP across this large biome.

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

AbstractProjecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM‐LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM‐LIN method improved R2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM‐LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

Radiocarbon dating of naturally shed reindeer antlers melted out of retreating and down-wasting ice patches and ice caps in western Norway

A rise in summer temperatures, especially since the turn of the 21st century, has caused negative mass balance and marginal retreat of ice caps and ice patches in western Norway. Twentytwo naturally shed reindeer antlers found at retreating and down-melting margins of fourteen retreating ice patches and ice caps on mountain summits in western Norway during the recent decades have been radiocarbon dated. The reindeer antlers show no evidence of being sawed or cut off the skull or any engravings/scrape marks if the antlers had been handled by humans. The oldest reindeer antler in this study dates at 2201-2132 cal. yr BCE. Four dated antlers fall within the age range 2300-2000 cal. yr BCE. Single dates fall within the time ranges 1100 to 1000, 900 to 800, and 500 to 300 cal. yr BCE. Four dated antlers are within the time range 200 BCE to 100 cal. yr CE and two dated antlers fall within the time range 600 to 800 cal. yr CE. Finally, fifteen dates fall within the time range 1300-1900 cal. yr CE, the highest number (n=11) between 1300 and 1600 cal. yr CE. The temperature decline and increased precipitation causing advancing glaciers and ice caps, accompanied by growing ice patches during the Neoglacial period, including the early phase of the Little Ice Age, provided good preservation conditions for the reindeer antlers during the Little Ice Age, with extensive ice and snow cover in the high mountains in western Norway.

Temperature variation and urban electricity consumption in China: Implications for demand management and planning

With the pressing challenges of climate change and rapid urbanization, understanding the impact of temperature variation on electricity consumption in urban areas is crucial for effective demand management and planning. This study investigates the relationship between temperature and electricity usage in Chinese urban centers, shedding light on critical patterns that can inform sustainable energy policies. Using panel data analysis reveals a significant impact of temperature change on household electricity consumption. The findings indicate an optimal temperature range of 18–24 °C and a non-linear association between temperature and power usage. Notably, the rise in summer temperatures has a greater impact on electricity consumption than the decrease in colder winters. The study also highlights variations in the influence of temperature on electricity consumption based on regional economic development and north-south disparities. The study suggests implications for optimizing power supply planning.

The impact of climate and potassium nutrition on crop yields: Insights from a 30-year Swiss long-term fertilization experiment

Climate change will strongly influence agricultural practices in the future. In order to promote resource-efficient agriculture, it is important to analyse the impact of climate variation on crop yields. In this study, we report yields of spring wheat, winter barley, maize, potato and sugar beet from the long-term crop rotation and fertilization experiment Demo in Switzerland and analyze their response to different climate variables (e.g., annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, number of heat days and days of heavy rainfall). In addition, we investigate the impact of readily plant-available soil potassium (K) on the relationship of crop yields and precipitation. Annual and summer temperatures increased by 1 °C and 1.5 °C, respectively, over the observation period, and both the number of heat days and days of heavy rainfall increased in summer. Rising summer temperatures have a negative impact on all crop yields, which was most prominent for spring wheat, potato and maize. Annual, spring and summer precipitation show varying effects on different crops. For maize, soil K has a mediating effect on yield reductions under low spring precipitation. Yields are significantly reduced by 1 t ha−1 per 100 mm reduction of precipitation below a soil K threshold of 7 mg K kg−1 soil. Based on these results and the future climate scenarios for Switzerland, crop rotations with less heat-sensitive species and early-maturing varieties should be considered. In order to keep future irrigation demands and costs as low as possible, the soil K fertility classes in the Swiss K fertilization guidelines might need to be revisited. Our study is one of a few long-term observations that show the impact of climate variation on crop yields and highlights the potential of K management as a climate change adaptation measure.

Identification of Major Threats of Climate Change, Hazards, and Anthropogenic Activities on Biodiversity Conservation in the Buxa Tiger Reserve, India.

The Himalayan forests are facing a range of threats, which are making conservation efforts challenging. Using a mixed-method approach, this study investigated the threats to biodiversity conservation in Buxa Tiger Reserve (BTR), a fragile ecosystem in the Eastern Himalayan foothills. The study found that between 1990 and 2021, BTR experienced rising summer temperatures and decreasing annual precipitation, contributing to forest dryness, water scarcity, and forest fires. Natural disasters such as floods, flash floods, earthquakes, and landslides also caused significant damage to wildlife habitats. Changes in land use and land cover, including encroachment, infrastructure development, fuelwood collection, and grazing practices, were also identified as significant drivers of ecosystem alteration. Besides, hunting and poaching also emerged as threats to wildlife populations in the reserve. By employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the study determined that land use change, infrastructure development, climate change, livestock grazing, and fuelwood collection pose significant threats to flora conservation outcomes in BTR, while infrastructure development, climate change, livestock grazing, and forest fires are the primary threats to wildlife conservation outcomes in the reserve. The study recommends the regulation of land use practices, promotion of sustainable livelihoods for local communities, effective conservation strategies, and public awareness and education programs to promote the value of biodiversity conservation.

Spatio-Temporal Variations of Surface Melt Over Antarctic Ice Shelves using SCATSAT-1 Data

Surface melting is a significant issue in Antarctica, affecting glacier movements and climate change. During summer, surface meltwaters from ponds circulate over ice shelves, causing mass loss. These melt water percolates down to shelf through crevasses and affects the iceshelf instability or break the ice shelf. Antarctica experiences a surface melting increase of around 3.5 million square kilometres for every one-degree rise in summer temperature. In this study we use remote-sensing data sets to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of surface melt over Antarctic ice shelves. We use microwave brightness temperature (Tb) to evaluate surface melting on ice shelves. Total four ice shelves from East and West Antarctica were selected for research due to their significant surface melting issues. The study estimated cumulative melt days over these ice shelves for year 2017 and 2018, and investigated melt variations over transect profiles. It was found that year 2018 showed increased amount in melt days in some regions of selected ice shelves.

Widespread breakdown in masting in European beech due to rising summer temperatures.

Climate change effects on tree reproduction are poorly understood, even though the resilience of populations relies on sufficient regeneration to balance increasing rates of mortality. Forest-forming tree species often mast, i.e. reproduce through synchronised year-to-year variation in seed production, which improves pollination and reduces seed predation. Recent observations in European beech show, however, that current climate change can dampen interannual variation and synchrony of seed production and that this masting breakdown drastically reduces the viability of seed crops. Importantly, it is unclear under which conditions masting breakdown occurs and how widespread breakdown is in this pan-European species. Here, we analysed 50 long-term datasets of population-level seed production, sampled across the distribution of European beech, and identified increasing summer temperatures as the general driver of masting breakdown. Specifically, increases in site-specific mean maximum temperatures during June and July were observed across most of the species range, while the interannual variability of population-level seed production (CVp) decreased. The declines in CVp were greatest, where temperatures increased most rapidly. Additionally, the occurrence of crop failures and low seed years has decreased during the last four decades, signalling altered starvation effects of masting on seed predators. Notably, CVp did not vary among sites according to site mean summer temperature. Instead, masting breakdown occurs in response to warming local temperatures (i.e. increasing relative temperatures), such that the risk is not restricted to populations growing in warm average conditions. As lowered CVp can reduce viable seed production despite the overall increase in seed count, our results warn that a covert mechanism is underway that may hinder the regeneration potential of European beech under climate change, with great potential to alter forest functioning and community dynamics.

Assessing the consequences of recent climate change on World Heritage sites in South Greenland

In the Arctic region, microbial degradation poses a significant threat to the preservation of archaeological deposits, actively consuming irreplaceable cultural and environmental records. In this study we assess the potential effects of the last 40 years of climate change on organic archaeological deposits within the UNESCO World Heritage area Kujataa in South Greenland. We use the dynamic process-oriented model, CoupModel to simulate soil temperatures and soil moisture contents at four archaeological sites in the area. The results show that the organic deposits have experienced a substantial warming the last 40 years, which combined with decreasing soil moisture contents creates a dangerous combination that can accelerate the degradation of organic materials. Currently, there are 583 archaeological sites registered within the area. Our findings highlight that the current climatic conditions are not conducive to organic preservation. The greatest risk of degradation lies within the relatively dry continental inland areas of the study region, where all Norse Viking Age settlements are situated. However, even at the "cold" and "wet" outer coast, the combined effects of rising summer temperatures and declining soil moisture levels may already be exerting a noticeable impact.

Delineating the predominant impact of rising temperature on the enhancement of severity in compound drought-hot events in China: An empirical Copula and path analysis-based approach

Study regionChina Study focusCompound drought-hot events (CDH) inflict serious socio-economic damages on our society and the natural environment. Given the inverse relationship between average summer temperature and precipitation, this investigation introduces an innovative empirical copula-based compound drought-hot index (CDHI). This index is crafted from the joint distribution of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized temperature index (STI). While previous research has documented a rising trend in these complex events on both regional and global stages, scrutiny into their escalating severity remains limited. To highlight the critical role of climbing temperatures in the increasing severity of CDH events within China, our research utilizes the CDHI in tandem with a path analysis to precisely assess severity shifts in CDH occurrences during the warm season from 1901 to 2022. New hydrological insights for the regionThis study used an empirical copula-based CDH index and implemented the path analysis to quantify the response of severity changes of compound drought-hot events to shifts of summer mean temperature and water deficit from the historical perspective. Our findings reveal a marked escalation in CDH severity across much of China. Path analysis divulges that the influence of rising summer temperatures on CDH severity has seen a significant uptick in the last 60 years (1962–2022), displaying a more considerable contribution rate than the earlier 60-year span (1901–1961). This points to the changing impact of temperature on CDH events over recent decades. During the initial interval (1901–1961), we saw a 0.7% and 1.7% per-decade increase in areas affected by severe and moderate CDH events, respectively. Contrastingly, the subsequent period (1962–2022) experienced a more significant rise, with the area affected by severe and moderate events expanding over twice as much. Totally speaking, this exploration enhances our comprehension of the intensification in CDH event severity and the role of climatic drivers. These insights can contribute to improved risk assessments and the development of tailored adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of ongoing climate change.

Can domestic wheat farming meet the climate change-induced challenges of national food security in Uzbekistan?

ABSTRACT This study is the first to develop food supply and demand projections over the 21st century for Uzbekistan by considering the combined effects of climate change and soil salinization. The study results suggest that rising summer temperatures and soil salinity will considerably reduce wheat production. Projections indicate that a large wheat supply–demand gap will emerge in the midterm, particularly under the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario. For the two more pessimistic scenarios, supply losses of about 24–29% are expected by the end of the century. Supply–demand gaps of up to 2.7 million tons of wheat would pose serious challenges to national food security.

Impact of Rising Summer Temperatures on Government Sector Tertiary Care Emergency Centers: Addressing Heatstroke and Associated Death Rates in Karachi, Pakistan.

Rising summer temperatures pose significant challenges to healthcare systems, particularly in low-resource settings. This article examines the impact of heatwaves on government sector tertiary care emergency centers in Karachi, Pakistan and addresses the alarming increases in heatstroke cases and associated mortality during extreme heat events. The study signifies the urgent need for adaptive measures to enhance emergency preparedness, public awareness, and heat mitigation strategies. Addressing heat-related illnesses requires collaborative efforts from healthcare providers, policymakers, and community leaders. Effective interventions can mitigate the impact of rising temperatures on vulnerable populations and reduce heat-associated mortality.

Lowland forest loss and climate-only species distribution models exaggerate a forest-dependent species' vulnerability to climate change

Climate-only species distribution models are commonly used to evaluate a species' vulnerability to future climate change. However, these models may overestimate a species' vulnerability when occurrence data comes from only a subset of the species' historical range due to anthropogenic range contractions. This study investigated the impacts of using climate-only species distribution models with anthropogenically truncated occurrence data on future predictions, using the little-studied leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis) of mainland Tropical Asia as a case study. Like most other species in mainland Tropical Asia, the leopard cat's current distribution represents a non-random subset of its historical range due to the disproportionate loss of lowland forests in the region. We found that climate-only species distribution models trained on current occurrence data significantly overestimated the leopard cat's vulnerability to future climate change, predicting considerable range contractions by 2081–2100 due to rising summer temperatures. A similar range contraction was observed using a virtual species whose occurrence was solely predicated on extant forest cover and not climate. This suggested the leopard cat's apparent vulnerability to future climate change was driven by a spurious relationship with summer temperatures, as modern occurrence data primarily came from refugial forest cover in the region's cooler uplands rather than the warmer, human-dominated lowlands. This bias was not apparent, however, from our current predictions, which had high predictive accuracy and were spatially consistent with current knowledge of the species' distribution; an observation highlighting the inadequacy of predictive accuracy alone as a metric for selecting models in studies where transferability to novel environments is critical. We next considered two potential strategies for detecting and mitigating the effects of anthropogenically truncated occurrence data: 1) the use of hybrid models that incorporate both climatic and non-climatic variables, and 2) the use of climate-only models with historical datasets. Despite using different data, both proposed strategies produced spatially similar predictions of present and future leopard cat occurrence with little-to-no range contractions predicted. We thus recommend all species distribution modeling studies interested in assessing a species' vulnerability to climate change compare future predictions derived from climate-only and hybrid models as well as compare predictions from current and historical datasets, as differences in predictions can highlight the presence of potential biases and other limitations. Finally, we discuss our findings as they apply to both our focal species and to the overall field of species distribution modeling.

Climatic Effects on Position and Dynamics of Upper Open Forest Boundary in Altay and Western Sayan in the Last 60 Years

The upper treeline ecotone is a global and typically climate-dependent phenomenon. Its elevation is usually coupled with the thermal limitations of tree growth. The air temperature rise connected with global warming is assumed as the main cause of treeline upslope shifts in the last century. It has been found that the treeline elevation also correlates with the distance from the coastline and the aridity or continentality of the climate or the mass elevation effect. However, previous and contemporary publications have not explained how the upper treeline position directly couples with climate parameters. Often, this has been restricted by a lack of climate measurements and spatial data. In our study, we obtained data from 339 regional weather stations for 1964–1974 and interpolated them to Altay and Western Sayan using regional DEMs and a specially developed regression model. Moreover, we semiautomatically identified the elevational position of the upper open forest boundary (OFB) (crown closure > 10%) on the slopes of 30 mountains in Altay and Western Sayan in 1960 and 2020. We took into account the slope aspect and edaphic constraints. The obtained data allowed us to undertake a regression analysis of the dependence of the OFB elevation on climatic parameters. As a result, we found that, in the 1960s, at OFB elevations rising from the outer to the inner parts of the study area to approximately 500–700 m, the summer air temperature and precipitation linearly decreased, but the summer sunshine duration increased. In the multiple regression analysis, including the climatic parameters as independent variables and the OFB elevation as a dependent variable, significant relations were found only for the combination of air temperature and sunshine duration. We assume that the OFB elevation is determined not only by the air temperature but also by the direct solar irradiation level, changing with latitude and cloudiness. We also found that the ratio between the OFB elevation on the northern and southern slopes varied with respect to latitude. The spatial analysis of OFB shifts in 1960–2020 revealed significant differences in its value in the central (80–90 m) and outer parts of the study area (110–130 m). We suppose that the OFB advance over the past 60 years has local specificity associated with the peculiarities of the climatic changes (summer temperature rise, precipitation decrease, and sunshine duration increase) in different parts of Altay and Western Sayan. Our results highlight the need to clearly determine climatic parameters when forecasting woody vegetation reactions to future climate changes.

Mortality during Heatwaves and Tropical Nights in Vienna between 1998 and 2022

Rising summer temperatures lead to heat waves and tropical nights, which can result in health problems among the population. This work examined if mortality among Viennese people has increased under such weather conditions or whether the population was able to adapt to those periods of extreme heat. Therefore, the daily climatic data of the Austrian Weather Service and the number of daily deaths in Vienna from 1998 to 2022 have been put into relation. After calculating the mean values from those data sets, we analyzed the total number of daily deaths but also the death rate per 100,000 inhabitants for the total Viennese population, for men and women. The impact of age structure on possible trends was analyzed and ruled out. The analysis showed that the mortality on days with heat events was still higher, but the mean values of daily deaths decreased over time, despite a doubling of heatwaves and tropical nights, which speaks for an adaptation to heat events by the Viennese population.

Examining the efficacy of cooling pad technology to address increasing building cooling demand in Latvia

Over the past decades there has been a strong evidence of a temperature rise across the world that has led to a growing concern of more extreme weather patterns and regular seasonal heat waves globally. As such, building occupants are at a continuously growing risk to overheating exposure inside the premises throughout the warm season of the year. This study investigates the utilization of cooling pad technology as a potential solution to enhance cooling efficiency. Compared to traditional cooling methods, the implementation of cooling pads leads to significant reductions in temperature and enhanced humidity control, while consuming relatively lower amounts of energy. The study contains a comprehensive analysis of the climatic conditions in Latvia, focusing on temperature and humidity variations throughout the year over the last decade in three cities–Riga, Daugavpils and Liepaja, that extensively represent the scope of climatic variations across Latvia, featuring coastal and continental climate patterns. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness and suitability of cooling pad technology in Nordic climate, focusing on three Latvian cities. The novelty of the study lies in its analysis of cooling pad technology’s effectiveness in Nordic climatic conditions in addressing the increasing cooling demand. The paper examines the fundamental principles behind cooling pad technology, its impact on chiller performance, and its ability to optimize the cooling process. The utilization of cooling pad technology as an effective means to enhance cooling efficiency across the building stock to improve occupant comfort level and IEQ is highlighted. The results demonstrate 5.47% COP increase during average summer temperature conditions, and 17.78% COP increase in peak summer temperature conditions after implementation of cooling pads. This study contributes to the existing knowledge on cooling technologies, offering practical recommendations for the implementation of cooling pad systems use in Latvia and across the wider Nordic region, which is experiencing the gradual rise in summer temperature and humidity level.

Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change

Glaciers and ice caps in Norway are presently undergoing mass loss, areal reduction, and frontal retreat, mainly a result of increased summer ablation due to rising summer temperatures over Scandinavia, especially after 2000 CE. In this paper, the glacier mass-balance response of 10 Norwegian glaciers with continuous mass balance observations (>10 years) to climate projections from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100 have been estimated. Projected changes in mean summer temperature and mean winter precipitation from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100, applying the RCP8.5 emission scenario for five different regions in Norway; ‘Sogn og Fjordane’ and ‘Hordaland’, now Vestland County in western Norway, ‘Oppland’, now part of Innlandet County in eastern Norway, and Nordland County and Finnmark County, both in Northern Norway), range between +3.5°C and +5.0°C, and between +5% and +25%, respectively. These climate projections have been converted (by linear regression with overlapping observational mass-balance data) into specific surface glacier mass balance [winter balance ( Bw), summer balance ( Bs), and annual balance ( Ba) for 10 glaciers in Norway with mass-balance series [Ålfotbreen, Nigardsbreen (part of Jostedalsbreen), Austdalsbreen (part of Jostedalsbreen), Rembesdalskåka (part of Hardangerjøkulen), Blomstølskardsbreen (part of Søre Folgefonna), Storbrean, Hellstugubrean, Gråsubrean, Engabreen (part of Vestre Svartisen, Langfjordjøkelen (data: http://glacier.nve.no/glacier/viewer/ci/no/ ) yielding a total, cumulative surface glacier mass loss from 2000 to 2100 CE in the range of -85.2 ± 4 to -197.3 ± 10 m water equivalents. The estimated changes in equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs), in the range of 230 ± 10 to 630 ± 30 m, indicate that the mean ELA may reach the upper part of 7 of the 10 glaciers included in this study [Ålfotbreen, Austdalsbreen, Rembesdalskåka, Blomstølskardsbreen, Gråsubrean, Engabreen and Langfjordjøkelen] by the end of the 21st century. The projected glacier mass loss and ELA rise, and thus changes in glacier length, area and volume, will most likely have profound consequences for future glacier hydrology (runoff), hydropower production, wildlife, ecosystems, glacier hazards, and tourism.

Management of Natural and Environmental Risks in the Context of Increasing Continentality of the Climate

The article presents methods for managing natural and environmental risks in the conditions of increasing continentality of the climate in the Polar regions of gas production. It is shown that natural risks associated with the rise in summer temperatures can manifest themselves in the form of various epizootics. The leading factor in the manifestation of such natural risks are large-scale disturbances of tundra soils, in particular, on the Yamal Peninsula due to overgrazing of reindeer. Environmental risks are associated with the impact of gas industry on the processes of eutrophication of tundra ecosystems, which manifests itself in the form of a change in the predominant forms of vegetation and increased thawing of soils. Against the backdrop of an increase in the continentality of the climate, in recent years, on the territory of the Taz Peninsula, biogeochemical technologies for the reclamation of tundra soils, adaptive to the climatic conditions of the Far North, have been successfully tested, based on methods protected by patents of the Russian Federation.

Glacier Retreating Analysis on the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau via Multisource Remote Sensing Data

Accurate multitemporal glacier change investigations and analyses are lacking on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP). A combination of photogrammetry, optical remote sensing and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) datasets can accurately identify large-scale glaciers; In the present study, glaciers in three periods on the SETP (1970s, 2000, 2020) were identified from multisource remote sensing data based on a deep learning method and manual visual interpretation, and multitemporal glacial inventory data from relatively high-frequency source imagery. Totals of 11648, 12993, and 11875 glaciers were identified in the 1970s, 2000, and 2020, with total areas of 13372.08 km <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> , 11692.31 km <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> , and 10612.94 km <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> , respectively. The general distribution of SETP glaciers was identified to be typical of alpine glaciers dominated by small-sized glaciers. The average elevation of glaciers was approximately 5000 m; the slopes were mostly lower than 40°, and the main aspect was southeast, followed by south and southwest. The glaciers retreated from the 1970s to 2020, and a total glacier area of approximately 2759.14 km <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> was degraded during this time, with an average annual melting rate of 0.45% yr <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">-1</sup> . Rising summer temperatures may be the driving force behind the continuous decline in the glacier area. Overall, the results obtained in this study showed relatively low uncertainty involved in the identification of glaciers compared to some previous studies. The results can provide accurate glacier information for glacier monitoring and modeling studies on the SETP.

The effects of temperature extremes on survival in two semi‐arid Australian bird communities over three decades, with predictions to 2104

AbstractAimOrganisms in arid and semi‐arid regions are frequently exposed to climatic extremes and accordingly among the most vulnerable to climate change. Studies of seasonal differences in vital rates, which mediate effects of climate on viability, are rare in arid species, limiting ability to project population trends. We quantified survival patterns for two bird communities as a function of exposure to temperature extremes in winter and summer, then projected survival patterns to 2104.LocationSemi‐arid eastern Australia.Time period1986–2016; 1986–2104.Major taxa studiedBirds.MethodsUsing mark–recapture time‐dependent Cormack–Jolly–Seber models and data for 37 species from two &gt;30‐year ringing programmes, we tested for effects on 6‐monthly survival of exposure to temperatures &gt;38 and &lt;0°C. We then predicted future survival for different emission scenarios, testing whether changes in survival associated with warming winters would be sufficient to offset the effects of rising summer temperatures.ResultsSurvival probability declined strongly with increasing exposure to days &gt;38°C and to a lesser extent to days &lt;0°C, with temperature extremes explaining 43 and 13% of temporal variation in survival among years, respectively. Summer survival patterns were similar across avian guilds but only survival of nectarivores declined in winter. Our models predict that gains in winter survival will not offset reductions in summer survival. Annual survival is predicted to decline substantially by the end of the century: from .63 in 1986 to .43 in 2104 under an optimistic emission scenario and to .11 under a pessimistic scenario.Main conclusionsWe highlight the significance of temperature extremes for species' persistence in arid and semi‐arid regions, comprising 70% of Australia's landmass, and 40% globally. Our demography‐based results are consistent with physiological‐based projections evaluating avian survival in arid and semi‐arid regions globally and suggest rising summer temperatures pose a risk to population persistence in these regions.