Rising House Prices Research Articles

Determinants of house price dynamics and household indebtedness in Namibia

The paper aims to investigate the determinants of supply and demand-side factors of house price dynamics and their impact on household indebtedness in Namibia. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used. The findings support the hypothesis’ that supply-side and demand-side factors had a significant effect on house price as well as household indebtedness. It was found that money supply, working population, construction cost index, mortgage loans, previous quarter house prices, and current GDP were found to be the key determinants of both supply and demand-side factors of house-price dynamics in Namibia. Additionally, an increase in mortgage loans would increase household indebtedness in the short run and was found to be the key determinant of household indebtedness in Namibia. This indicates that an expansionary monetary policy could address the twin problem of rising house prices and household indebtedness. Policy implications derived from the study indicate that although monetary policy can be used to address the issues of escalating house prices and indebtedness, this policy intervention may be limited because Namibia does not have an autonomy regarding its monetary policy due to its currency board operations arrangement.

현금흐름 기반 동태적 주택시장 모형의 구조와 시사점

It is not appropriate to apply the demand/supply approach to the housing market and it causes many problems. Unlike the premise of demand/supply approach, transactions of existing houses account for the majority of the domestic housing market, and transactions of houses with 'jeonse' are also significant. In this paper, an analysis based on cash flow is proposed as an alternative housing market analysis method. According to this, the house price is determined at the point where the amount of cash payment and the amount of cash receipt match for the sale in the period, and changes when a difference occurs between the amounts. As a result of constructing and simulating a dynamic model for housing market based on cash flow, it was estimated that more than half of the rise in Korean housing prices since 2000 was due to the rise in 'jeonse' prices, and the rest were due to the higher ratio of additional procurement cash than the equilibrium value. According to the cash flow-based analysis, heavy comprehensive real estate tax and transfer tax for multiple homeowners, house supply through the development of new cities and the unitary deregulation of reconstruction can also lead to a rise in housing prices, contrary to policy intentions. The cash flow-based dynamic market model presented in this paper can be expanded throughout the resell market where used goods with scarcity are traded

서울시 청년들의 주택구입 인식 연구

In this study, the results of in-depth interviews and survey analysis on “Seoul youth’s housing purchase intentions” for young people aged 19 to 39 living in Seoul are as follows. First, as a result of the in-depth interview, the deepening of the wealth gap between the youth who owns a house and the youth who rents it is emerging as a social problem, and there are many complaints about the mortgage loan regulation policy. The following are the results of the survey: First, the intention to buy a house was high at 79%, and there were many cases where they gave up on buying a house due to a rise in house prices. Second, it was found that those with a college degree or higher preferred a house with a larger area than those with a college degree or lower, and the purchase period was delayed. Jeonse residents had the highest intention to purchase a house. Third, it was found that the number and area of d esired rooms increased as the annual salary increased. Policy implications include policies to improve the income of young people, affordable housing supply and financial support policies, and various types of housing supply policies that reflect the needs of young people.

주택가격 상승기의 주택투자 결정 요인

The aim of the study is to examine the determinants of housing gap speculation from 2017 to 2020. Housing price have steeply increased last 5 years in Korea. The median apartment sale prices in the Seoul Metropolitan Areas (SMAs) increased by about 60.5% from about 370 million won in 2017 to about 590 million won in 2021. Housing policy makers believe that young people who cannot afford to buy a house with their own income and assets entered the housing market through gap speculation, and thereby housing prices skyrocketed with increasing housing effective demand. Therefore, various demand-side strategies have been applied to curb speculative demand. Extensive financial borrowing restrictions and increase in tax, nevertheless, have not stopped the rise in housing prices. This study focuses on what gap speculation is and what characteristics gap speculators have. Theoretically, it can be conceptualized as buying a house on a cheonsei contract - a kind of rental agreement, but a unique Korean way to rent a house with only a long-term and large deposit - for the purpose of capital gains without a plan to live there. From the empirical study, we can find several things as follows. Contrary to the stereotype about young speculators, gap speculator tends to increase with age. They can be estimated as a group that are low-income groups compared to renters or homeowners but increase savings by reducing current consumption for future consumption. Their net assets are relatively high, but they reduce housing costs by living in small, old, and poor places. It implies that actual gap speculators can be not general speculators, but can be those who really need affordable places to live in someday.

Research on the Impact of Aging and New Generation in the Population Structure on China’s Real Estate Price Volatility

To clarify the internal mechanism of the influence of the aging population and the new generation on housing prices is helpful to scientifically analyze and predict the trend of housing prices and the aging population and the new generation. This paper uses the intergenerational overlap model of the two periods as the theoretical basis, and uses the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2018 to study the impact of the elderly population and the new generation on the price fluctuations of commercial housing. The results of the study show that on the whole, both the aging population and the new generation have promoted the rise in commodity housing prices. However, the regional heterogeneity is significant. The aging population has the most significant impact on housing price increases in developed and general developed areas, and has no significant impact on housing price increases in other places. The new generation has a negative impact on housing prices in backward areas and a positive impact on housing prices in other areas. Looking further, using the ARIMA model to predict housing prices in the next 10 years, it is concluded that housing prices will show a slow upward trend in the next 10 years. Therefore, the government can ensure the stable development of the real estate market by revitalizing the second-hand housing market and implementing housing projects.

Research on the Renovation Strategy of Dwelling Narrowness Space Based on Service Design

With the expansion of urban population, tight housing supply, rising housing prices, and increasingly popular dwelling narrowness housing, young people in the city are increasingly demanding housing experience. How to customize a good living space for young people is particularly important.This paper takes the service design as the theoretical basis and research method, and proposes a systematic service strategy for the design and transformation of the dwelling narrowness space. Firstly, analyze the current situation of the dwelling narrowness space, and sort out the service design theory; secondly, analyze, dismantle and reorganize the user behavior, service system construction and relevant stakeholders’ interaction points in the renovation design of the dwelling narrowness space;Finally, the design of the dwelling space and the user process are analyzed, so as to propose strategies for customized space renovation design schemes suitable for different application scenarios.

An Analysis of the Price Determinants of Multiplex Houses through Spatial Regression Analysis

This study established a model for price determinants with the combination of the GIS technique and spatial regression model based on the parcel prices of multiplex houses in an effort to integrate and utilize spatial data and choose a suitable model. This study established a spatial weights matrix to apply interrelation with adjacent areas and performed row standardization to specify the effect of adjacent areas. Moran’s I was used for measuring the spatial autocorrelation of the parcel prices of multiplex houses. Through this, the parcel price of multiplex houses was analyzed to have a strong spatial autocorrelation and be related to the jeonse price of an apartment. A lot of multiplex houses are supplied to Seoul. In previous studies, multiplex houses studies were analyzed through simple regression analysis excluding spatial effects, however, in this study, a suitable model was derived through spatial regression analysis. Moreover, the jeonse price of an apartment, which is a representative housing type, was firstly analyzed as a variable added and found whether the jeonse price of apartments would have an effect on the other housing types in the neighborhood. This study also found if the jeonse price of apartments would have an effect on the other housing types in the neighborhood. For creating a sustainable residential environment when redeveloping an aging residential area, there is a need to find various ways for coexistence by identifying the interrelation with the neighboring residential areas rather than simply focusing on the supply amount. In addition to this, it suggests that policies addressing the rise of housing prices should not be limited to a specific area or a specific dwelling and should not overlook the spatial interaction relationship.

The health consequence of rising housing prices in China

This paper examines the health consequence of rising housing prices in China by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in housing price appreciation linked to individual-level health data from 2000 to 2011. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that increases in housing prices significantly raise the probability of having chronic diseases. The deep-rooted marriage culture of males being obligated to buy a home before getting married and the growing marriage market competition are the main channels that exacerbate the negative health effects, particularly for parents with marriage-age sons. We also show that increased work intensity, high levels of stress, and lifestyle changes are other possible channels. Our results highlight the unintended health consequences of the real estate market prosperity.

Inequality and the COVID-19 Crisis in the United Kingdom

We review the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequalities in education, the labor market, household living standards, mental health, and wealth in the United Kingdom. The pandemic has pushed up inequalities on several dimensions. School closures, in particular, disrupted the learning of poorer children, leading to lower attainment. Mental health worsened for those groups (women and younger adults) who had poorer mental health pre-pandemic. Lockdowns and social distancing particularly reduced the ability of younger, lower-earning, and less educated people to work. However, job-support programs combined with the expanded welfare system meant that, if anything, disposable income inequality fell. Rising house prices have benefited people around the middle of the wealth distribution. In the longer term, lower work experience and training for the less educated and missed schooling—particularly among children from more deprived families—could push up human capital inequalities and reduce social mobility.

The Path of Housing Prices in Promoting the Upgrading of Industrial Structure: Bank Credit Funds, Land Finance, and Consumer Demand

The impact path of housing prices on the upgrading of the industrial structure is an important part of realizing the high-quality operation of the national economy in China. In order to discuss the mechanism of different influencing paths to upgrading industrial structure, this paper introduces three different intermediary variables from the levels of supply, demand, and government, and further subdivides and compares them to empirically test the specific impact path of housing prices on industrial structure upgrading by constructing multi-dimensional industrial structure upgrading indicators. It obtains some meaningful results. Firstly, there is a significant U-shaped relationship between housing prices and industrial structure upgrading; secondly, rising house prices will exacerbate the real estate industry’s occupation of bank credit funds, hindering the upgrading of the whole industrial structure; thirdly, the negative impact of the land’s financial dependence on the upgrading of the industrial structure was underestimated; and, finally, the rise in housing prices can improve the consumption level and promote the upgrading of regional industrial structures. By studying the impact path of house prices on the upgrading of different industrial structures, it will help local governments regulate house prices and give full play to the role of house prices in promoting the upgrading of industrial structure through multiple channels.

Utah: Strategic Investments in the Wake of a Pandemic

Threatening economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic on Utah’s economy proved to be short-lived, due in part to early budget cuts, federal economic relief, and an expanding economy that out-performed expectations. Subsequently, FY22 provided the Utah Legislature opportunities to invest in education, infrastructure, and social services. Legislators also used this opportunity to cut taxes for veterans, the elderly population, and families. As the state’s population continues to grow at record rates, Utah decisionmakers must grapple with rising housing prices and record-high rental rates. This report highlights specific challenges and opportunities Utah faced through negotiating a record-high budget of $25.6 billion and provides an overview of Utah’s economy and changing demographic makeup.

서울 아파트 가격은 거품인가?*

This study analyzed whether the rise in apartment prices in Seoul could be interpreted as a housing bubble since 2017. In terms of the fact that the housing price bubble was difficult to be explained by observable changes in the market environment, this study examined the explanatory power of the endogenous relationship between the change in housing prices and economic variables in the pertinent period. To do so, this study set a model which interpreted how far the rate of change in actual housing prices deviated from the explainable change in basic market environments and applied the model to housing bubbles right before the U.S. subprime crisis (the early and mid 2000’s) and to apartment markets in Seoul after 2017. According to the result, the increase of housing prices in the U.S. markets in the mid 2000’s significantly exceeded the rise anticipated by the change in markets, while the change in apartment prices in Seoul was not considerably different from the conditions that were explained by the change in market circumstances. This suggested that the rise in housing prices in Seoul was caused not by bubbles from excessive expectations or self-realizing predictions but by factors affecting changes in the fundamental values for housing, such as government interventions or monetary policies.

The impact of sociodemographic trends on house prices in Israel and the role of public policy in regulating them

ABSTRACT This article examines the impact of sociodemographic trends in marriage, divorce, and rising life expectancy in different districts in Israel on the increase in the number of households and, in turn, on the rising house prices in each of the districts. The findings show that in 2008–17, the Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Central districts, which had higher marriage, divorce, and life expectancy rates compared to other districts not only had the largest annual increment in the total number of households but also saw a particularly steep rise in house prices compared to a more moderate rise in the other districts and outlying areas. This state of affairs requires the formulation of a public policy capable of influencing demand and supply pressures in the house market in the various districts, with the aim of regulating house prices in accordance with national needs and government strategies for spreading the population throughout the country.

The effect of real estate purchase subsidies on property prices

This paper assesses to which degree housing purchase subsidies are capitalized into property prices. Using a large-scale micro-dataset on German house prices, I exploit the introduction of a new subsidy scheme in the state of Bavaria. My difference-in-difference estimations at the Bavarian interstate border indicate that the prices of single-family homes increased by approximately 10,000 euros more in Bavarian border regions. This is consistent with a full capitalization of the subsidy. No effect is found for apartments, whose purchasers seldom qualify for the subsidy. A heterogeneity analysis confirms that the price effect is larger in segments of the real estate market with a higher exposure to the subsidy scheme. I also provide suggestive evidence that the subsidy scheme slightly stimulated construction activity. Overall, my results indicate that instead of making house purchases more affordable for families, the subsidy scheme led to a rise in house prices and mainly benefited sellers of properties.

Housing price and criminal crime in China: direct and indirect influence

ABSTRACT The aim of the present work is to focus on the increased number of criminal crimes from the perspective of the rising housing price in China. Based on the theory of crime economics, the article analyzed the direct and indirect influence channel through which the housing prices may have impacts on criminal crimes. The paper collected the panel data of 27 province-level regions in China from 2004 to 2017 and verified the hypotheses by using fixed effect model, mediating effect model and spatial Dubin model. Our study offered the following conclusions: 1. The rise in housing price is a generative impetus for the frequent occurrence of the criminal offenses. 2. Consumption gap serves as the mediating variable between housing price and criminal crime. 3. There is a spatial correlation between housing price and criminal crime in China. Finally, the paper proposed relevant suggestions based on the above conclusions.

Cyberspace-based urban networks: Visualising and exploring China's intercity interaction from a new perspective

The rapid urbanisation of China has increased public awareness of rising housing prices, particularly in large and medium-sized cities. The popularisation of the Internet in China has driven a shift in the public's attention to housing prices, moving from geographic space to cyberspace. Based on web search engine data using geotag, this paper attempts to create a better visualisation of the shift in the public's attention to housing prices from the perspectives of geographic space and cyberspace. Intercity interaction is also analysed in the context of cyberspace-based urban networks, through hybrid featured graphics. Specifically, data regarding public attention to housing prices are gathered (via queries data through Baidu Index) in 363 Chinese cities. The data are divided into a local city housing price attention index and an offsite city housing price attention index. Second, public attention flows are presented using origin-destination flows maps, chord diagrams and violin diagrams. These hybrid feature graphics show the interrelationship between cities and the complexity of public attention flows. This information will help us to reveal intercity interaction and the cyberspace-based urban network structure in China.

Can Housing Assets Affect the Chinese Residents' Willingness to Pay for Green Housing?

As the development trend of the future housing field, green housing is an effective way to reduce pollution, save energy, and promote industrial upgrading. At the same time, the green house is of great significance to change the development mode of the construction industry and promote the sustainable development of the social economy. This study proposes a comprehensive research model to examine the influencing mechanism of residents’ intention to purchase green buildings. The proposed model is empirically tested using data collected from 1,338 urban residents in China. Based on logit, probit, and ivprobit models, factors such as personal characteristics, housing price, and the number of real estate ownership are selected to conduct empirical analysis and mechanism analysis on willingness that affects consumers’ purchase of green houses. The results show that housing assets significantly affect the willingness of householders to pay for green houses. The more houses they own, the higher their willingness to pay for a green house will be. Similarly, if the housing prices are higher, householders are more willing to buy a green house. The amount of housing assets will affect the willingness of householders to pay for green housing through the way of individual happiness. In terms of the characteristics of the householder, if the householder is more educated, unmarried, his willingness to buy a green house will be stronger, and owning housing assets may affect the individual happiness due to the housing wealth effect brought by rising housing prices. People with more housing assets are more likely to have the happiness brought by higher wealth, which may affect the purchase intention of householders.

How Do Housing Prices Affect Residents' Health? New Evidence From China.

This paper aims to explore the effect and mechanism of rising housing prices on residents' physical and mental health. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies from 2014 to 2018, we investigate the impact and mechanism of rising housing prices on the mental and physical health of urban residents through multiple grouping regression and analysis of variance. The study finds that overall, rising housing prices have a positive effect on residents' mental health but a negative effect on physical health, and those who do not own a house show the greatest adverse effect. The impact of rising housing prices on health is mainly reflected in three aspects: the wealth effect, cost effect, and comprehensive environmental expectation effect. Of these, the wealth effect and comprehensive environmental expectation effect play a role in promoting residents' health, whereas the cost effect has a strong inhibitory effect. This paper also analyzes how house prices impact health and finds that having health insurance reduces residents' active health behavior, thus affecting their physical and mental health levels, which has a positive effect on uninsured residents.

2021 KLEIN LECTURE: AMERICAN DREAM DELAYED: SHIFTING DETERMINANTS OF HOMEOWNERSHIP

AbstractWe develop and estimate a dynamic model of female labor supply, fertility, and transition from renting to first homeownership with panel data, to investigate declining U.S. homeownership over the past decades. Higher house prices and increased female wage rates (that is the opportunity cost of leisure) cause households to postpone their first‐home purchase, because leisure and fertility are complementary to homeownership. Education and female workforce participation are reinforcing factors that raise the value of owning a home. Our estimates show the effects of rising house prices and wage rates more than offset the effects of greater education and workforce participation.

Population Ageing, Asset Prices and Paying Ability: A Study Based on Urban Private Housing Prices in China

Population ageing and asset price issues, especially with regard to housing, exert a major impact on sustainable development. Since China entered the remit of an ageing society in 2001, the proportion of its elderly population has been rising. In the same period, the country’s real estate market experienced a rapid rise in house prices following the monetisation reform. Many large cities have experienced waiting lists for the purchase of private housing, and working-class groups not being able to afford it. This has become a social phenomenon in China. This study takes the social reality of China as the main research object, investigates the influencing mechanism of the ageing population structure on the residential commercial housing market, and locates paying ability, ageing, and private housing prices within the same framework. The study found that paying ability can be regarded as a regulating variable between ageing and private housing prices; consequently, a panel threshold effect model was constructed empirically to analyse the non-linear effects of ageing on private housing prices. The results show that when residents’ payment levels differ, the effect of ageing on the price of private housing also varies. Finally, by combining the 17-year panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China, it was found that all of the eastern regions of China crossed the threshold in 2010, and that all of the central and western regions crossed the threshold in 2011. At present, therefore, ageing can be said to be exerting an active impact on housing prices in China. To effectively curb the excessive rise in housing prices, the corresponding housing supply policy should be formulated from the perspective of improving the supply of housing to meet demand and the intergenerational transfer of the elderly population.