Rising Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Research Articles

Substantial cooling effect from aerosol-induced increase in tropical marine cloud cover

With global warming currently standing at approximately +1.2 °C since pre-industrial times, climate change is a pressing global issue. Marine cloud brightening is one proposed method to tackle warming through injecting aerosols into marine clouds to enhance their reflectivity and thereby planetary albedo. However, because it is unclear how aerosols influence clouds, especially cloud cover, both climate projections and the effectiveness of marine cloud brightening remain uncertain. Here we use satellite observations of volcanic eruptions in Hawaii to quantify the aerosol fingerprint on tropical marine clouds. We observe a large enhancement in reflected sunlight, mainly due to an aerosol-induced increase in cloud cover. This observed strong negative aerosol forcing suggests that the current level of global warming is driven by a weaker net radiative forcing than previously thought, arising from the competing effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols. This implies a greater sensitivity of Earth’s climate to radiative forcing and therefore a larger warming response to both rising greenhouse gas concentrations and reductions in atmospheric aerosols due to air quality measures. However, our findings also indicate that mitigation of global warming via marine cloud brightening is plausible and is most effective in humid and stable conditions in the tropics where solar radiation is strong.

Reconciling East Asia's mid-Holocene temperature discrepancy through vegetation-climate feedback

The term “Holocene temperature conundrum” refers to the inconsistencies between proxy-based reconstructions and transient model simulations, and it challenges our understanding of global temperature evolution during the Holocene. Climate reconstructions indicate a cooling trend following the Holocene Thermal Maximum, while model simulations indicate a consistent warming trend due to ice-sheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Various factors, such as seasonal biases and overlooked feedback processes, have been proposed as potential causes for this discrepancy. In this study, we examined the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the temperature anomaly patterns in East Asia during the mid-Holocene (∼6 ka). By utilizing the fully coupled Earth system model EC-Earth and performing simulations with and without coupled dynamic vegetation, our objective was to isolate the influence of vegetation changes on regional temperature patterns. Our findings reveal that vegetation-climate feedback contributed to warming across most of East Asia, resulting in spatially diverse temperature changes during the mid-Holocene and significantly improved model-data agreement. These results highlight the crucial role of vegetation-climate feedback in addressing the Holocene temperature conundrum and emphasize its importance for simulating accurate climate scenarios.

Food security adaptation analysis to climate change in Bekasi District

Background: Global climate change is a natural outcome of rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere brought on by people's continued pursuit of activities that will meet their demands for food in order to support their lives (Wilis R., 2014). Food security is negatively impacted by climate change. Agricultural productivity will be hampered and food security disrupted by too much or too little rainfall. One of the region that indicated to have a crisis in food securtity in climate crisis. Bekasi is one of the city that located in West Java. Methods: This study tried to employ a methodical literature review approach and analysis to the data that get from the literature review approach. Finding: There are some changes in the data from the rainfall averge, and the productions of the plants commodity. Conclusion: The grown in food security that occurred was also influenced by the climate crisis that occurred in Bekasi Regency, where the average rainfall experienced increased and decreased. In the reality the development that is happening in Bekasi is also the driving force behind the crisis in the food security, because the land to grow the plant is already changing to factory and others.

Ice core evidence for an orbital-scale climate transition on the Northwest Tibetan Plateau

The influences on climate in the Northwest Tibetan Plateau (NwTP) have changed on millennial to precessional timescales and have been dependent on the size of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, and the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). All these influences control the position and intensity of the westerlies over Central Asia and the Tibetan Plateau and of the Asian Monsoon over South Asia. The top 187.4 m of a 309.7-m ice core (2015GP) drilled on the plateau of the Guliya ice cap contains a 41-kyr climate history of the NwTP, a region where information on past climate and environment is limited. The oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O), and ammonium (NH4+) and dust concentration records from 2015GP show that during the glacial (41–17.5 ka BP) temperature and precipitation in the NwTP were primarily influenced on the precessional timescale by summer insolation, while at millennial resolution the climate was linked to the North Atlantic temperature via the westerlies. During the deglaciation (17.5–12 ka BP) summer insolation remained an important temperature forcing, but the influence of the North Atlantic climate on the NwTP climate weakened as the westerlies shifted northward. The Guliya Holocene δ18O record shows that NwTP climate was no longer in phase with decreasing summer insolation or with North Atlantic climate, perhaps as the moisture source and pathways were more determinative factors in isotopic fractionation than temperature, and/or incoming solar radiation (insolation) forcing was replaced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations as the primary driver of warming in NwTP.

A brGDGT‐Based Reconstruction of Terrestrial Temperature From the Maritime Continent Spanning the Last Glacial Maximum

AbstractThe tropics exert enormous influence on global climate. Despite the importance of tropical regions, the terrestrial temperature history in the Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) region during the last deglaciation is poorly constrained. Although numerous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions provide estimates of SST warming from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene, the timing of the onset of deglacial warming varies between records and inhibits determining the forcings driving deglacial warming in the IPWP. We present a 60,000‐year long temperature reconstruction based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) in a sediment core from Lake Towuti, located in Sulawesi, Indonesia. BrGDGTs are bacterial membrane‐spanning lipids that, globally, become more methylated with decreasing temperature and more cyclized with decreasing pH. Although changes in temperature are the dominant control on brGDGTs in regional and global calibrations, we find that the cyclization of the brGDGTs is a major mode of variation at Lake Towuti that records important changes in the lacustrine biogeochemical environment. We separate the influence of lake chemistry changes from temperature changes on the brGDGT records, and develop a temperature record spanning the last 60,000 years. The timing of the deglacial warming in our record occurs after the onset of the deglacial increase in CO2 concentrations, which suggests rising greenhouse gas concentrations and the associated radiative forcing may have forced deglacial warming in the IPWP. Peaks in temperature around 55 and 34 ka indicate that Northern Hemisphere summer insolation may also influence land surface temperature in the IPWP region.

Local summer insolation and greenhouse gas forcing drove warming and glacier retreat in New Zealand during the Holocene

Geological climate archives from the Holocene Epoch provide baseline information concerning natural climate variability. Temperate mountain glacier extent is sensitive to summer air temperature, thus geological records of past glacier length changes are a useful proxy for this climatic variable. Here we present a new cosmogenic 10Be chronology of glacier length changes at Dart Glacier in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. Prominent moraines deposited 321 ± 44 yr ago (n = 11) and 7.8 ± 0.3 ka (n = 5) show glaciers during the Little Ice Age were less extensive than during the early Holocene. This pattern of net Holocene glacier retreat is consistent with emerging data from other catchments in New Zealand and across the southern mid-latitudes. Using the physical framework of a transient global climate model simulation, we suggest that cool summers in the early Holocene were promoted by the local summer insolation minimum, together with low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, causing an early Holocene austral glacial maximum. An insolation-driven reduction in seasonality at southern mid-latitudes may reconcile differences between early Holocene temperature reconstructions where climate proxies have different seasonal sensitivities. We suggest that rising greenhouse gas concentrations after 7 ka caused regional-scale glacier retreat and appear to be the dominant driver of multi-millennial summer temperature trends in the southern mid-latitudes during the present interglacial.

Simulating the mid-Holocene, last interglacial and mid-Pliocene climate with EC-Earth3-LR

Abstract. As global warming is proceeding due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves towards climate states that challenge adaptation. Past Earth system states are offering possible modelling systems for the global warming of the coming decades. These include the climate of the mid-Pliocene (∼ 3 Ma), the last interglacial (∼ 129–116 ka) and the mid-Holocene (∼ 6 ka). The simulations for these past warm periods are the key experiments in the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a robust out-of-sample test bed of the climate models used to project future climate changes. Here, we document the model setup for PMIP4 experiments with EC-Earth3-LR and present the large-scale features from the simulations for the mid-Holocene, the last interglacial and the mid-Pliocene. Using the pre-industrial climate as a reference state, we show global temperature changes, large-scale Hadley circulation and Walker circulation, polar warming, global monsoons and the climate variability modes – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). EC-Earth3-LR simulates reasonable climate responses during past warm periods, as shown in the other PMIP4-CMIP6 model ensemble. The systematic comparison of these climate changes in past three warm periods in an individual model demonstrates the model's ability to capture the climate response under different climate forcings, providing potential implications for confidence in future projections with the EC-Earth model.

Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial.

Proxy reconstructions from marine sediment cores indicate peak temperatures in the first half of the last and current interglacial periods (the thermal maxima of the Holocene epoch, 10,000 to 6,000 years ago, and the last interglacial period, 128,000 to 123,000 years ago) that arguably exceed modern warmth1-3. By contrast, climate models simulate monotonic warming throughout both periods4-7. This substantial model-data discrepancy undermines confidence in both proxy reconstructions and climate models, and inhibits a mechanistic understanding of recent climate change. Here we show that previous global reconstructions of temperature in the Holocene1-3 and the last interglacial period8 reflect the evolution of seasonal, rather than annual, temperatures and we develop a method of transforming them to mean annual temperatures. We further demonstrate that global mean annual sea surface temperatures have been steadily increasing since the start of the Holocene (about 12,000 years ago), first in response to retreating ice sheets (12 to 6.5 thousand years ago), and then as a result of rising greenhouse gas concentrations (0.25±0.21 degrees Celsius over the past 6,500 years or so). However, mean annual temperatures during the last interglacial period were stable and warmer than estimates of temperatures during the Holocene, and we attribute this to the near-constant greenhouse gas levels and the reduced extent of ice sheets. We therefore argue that the climate of the Holocene differed from that of the last interglacial period in two ways: first, larger remnant glacial ice sheets acted to cool the early Holocene, and second, rising greenhouse gas levels in the late Holocene warmed the planet. Furthermore, our reconstructions demonstrate that the modern global temperature has exceeded annual levels over the past 12,000 years and probably approaches the warmth of the last interglacial period (128,000 to 115,000 years ago).

CMIP6 Historical Simulations (1850–2014) With GISS‐E2.1

AbstractSimulations of the CMIP6 historical period 1850–2014, characterized by the emergence of anthropogenic climate drivers like greenhouse gases, are presented for different configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Earth System ModelE2.1. The GISS‐E2.1 ensembles are more sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing than their CMIP5 predecessors (GISS‐E2) but warm less during recent decades due to a forcing reduction that is attributed to greater longwave opacity in the GISS‐E2.1 pre‐industrial simulations. This results in an atmosphere less sensitive to increases in opacity from rising greenhouse gas concentrations, demonstrating the importance of the base climatology to forcing and forced climate trends. Most model versions match observed temperature trends since 1979 from the ocean to the stratosphere. The choice of ocean model is important to the transient climate response, as found previously in CMIP5 GISS‐E2: the model that more efficiently exports heat to the deep ocean shows a smaller rise in tropospheric temperature. Model sea level rise over the historical period is traced to excessive drawdown of aquifers to meet irrigation demand with a smaller contribution from thermal expansion. This shows how fully coupled models can provide indirect observational constraints upon forcing, in this case, constraining irrigation rates with observed sea level changes. The overall agreement of GISS‐E2.1 with observed trends is familiar from evaluation of its predecessors, as is the conclusion that these trends are almost entirely anthropogenic in origin.

Insolation and greenhouse gases drove Holocene winter and spring warming in Arctic Alaska

Global surface temperature changes and their drivers during the Holocene Epoch remain controversial. Syntheses of proxy data indicate that global mean annual temperature declined from the mid-Holocene until the Pre-industrial Era, a trend linked to decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. In contrast, global climate models simulate increasing mean annual temperatures driven by retreating ice sheets and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This proxy-model disagreement may originate from a warm season bias in Northern Hemisphere proxy reconstructions, highlighting the need for new proxies that quantify cold season temperature, especially in Arctic regions that were devoid of continental ice sheets during the Holocene. Here, we present a new 16,000-year winter-spring temperature reconstruction derived from the unsaturation ratio of alkenones (U37K) in a continuous sedimentary sequence from Lake E5, northern Alaska. We employ a thermodynamic lake model to convert alkenone-inferred lake temperatures into winter-spring air temperature anomalies and we contextualize our proxy reconstruction with climate model output from the region. Our reconstruction shows that winter-spring temperatures warmed rapidly during the deglaciation at 16 and 14 thousand years before present and continued to warm gradually throughout the middle and late Holocene (0.12–0.28 °C/thousand years) in concert with regional sea surface temperature and sea ice records. Our results are consistent with climate model simulations and we attribute Holocene warming to rising winter-spring insolation, radiative forcing from rising greenhouse gas concentrations and regional feedbacks. Our reconstructed cold season warming equaled or exceeded summer cooling according to a regional synthesis of temperature records, suggesting that seasonal biases in temperature reconstructions may account for proxy-model disagreements in Holocene temperature trends from Eastern Beringia.

Future continental summer warming constrained by the present-day seasonal cycle of surface hydrology

Present-day land temperatures simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models exhibit considerable uncertainty. Generally it is assumed that these temperature biases do not affect the projected warming in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations (i.e. drop out by subtracting projected and present-day temperatures), but for specific regions and seasons this assumption is invalid. Here we show that, on the contrary, for large continental regions, such as Europe, state-of-the art global climate models with a warm summer bias project a relatively strong warming. This is because continental summer temperatures depend chiefly on soil drying in response to spring and summer solar radiation increase: models that dry fastest (due to the interaction of clouds, convection and soil hydrology) exhibit the strongest reductions in evaporation and consequently a more pronounced end-of-summer warming. These physical mechanisms acting on a seasonal timescale also govern the long-term climate response to greenhouse forcing over continental regions in summer. Combining these findings, we use the current model biases to reduce the uncertainty range in the projected warming over Europe from 3.6–8.6 °C to 4.6–7.3 °C (a reduction of about 50%). Given the huge potential impacts of the warmest projections on health, agriculture and water management, constraining the range of future summer climate change is imperative for relevant mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129-116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.

Examination of space-based bulk atmospheric temperatures used in climate research

ABSTRACTThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 5 (IPCC AR5, 2013) discussed bulk atmospheric temperatures as indicators of climate variability and change. We examine four satellite datasets producing bulk tropospheric temperatures, based on microwave sounding units (MSUs), all updated since IPCC AR5. All datasets produce high correlations of anomalies versus independent observations from radiosondes (balloons), but differ somewhat in the metric of most interest, the linear trend beginning in 1979. The trend is an indicator of the response of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas concentrations and other forcings, and so is critical to understanding the climate. The satellite results indicate a range of near-global (+0.07 to +0.13°C decade−1) and tropical (+0.08 to +0.17°C decade−1) trends (1979–2016), and suggestions are presented to account for these differences. We show evidence that MSUs on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s satellites (NOAA-12 and −14, 1990–2001+) contain spurious warming, especially noticeable in three of the four satellite datasets.Comparisons with radiosonde datasets independently adjusted for inhomogeneities and Reanalyses suggest the actual tropical (20°S-20°N) trend is +0.10 ± 0.03°C decade−1. This tropical result is over a factor of two less than the trend projected from the average of the IPCC climate model simulations for this same period (+0.27°C decade−1).

Holocene warming in western continental Eurasia driven by glacial retreat and greenhouse forcing

The global temperature evolution during the Holocene is poorly known. Whereas proxy data suggest that warm conditions prevailed in the Early to mid-Holocene with subsequent cooling, model reconstructions show long-term warming associated with ice-sheet retreat and rising greenhouse gas concentrations. One reason for this contradiction could be the under-representation of indicators for winter climate in current global proxy reconstructions. Here we present records of carbon and oxygen isotopes from two U–Th-dated stalagmites from Kinderlinskaya Cave in the southern Ural Mountains that document warming during the winter season from 11,700 years ago to the present. Our data are in line with the global Holocene temperature evolution reconstructed from transient model simulations. We interpret Eurasian winter warming during the Holocene as a response to the retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets until about 7,000 years ago, and to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and winter insolation thereafter. We attribute negative δ18O anomalies 11,000 and 8,200 years ago to enhanced meltwater forcing of North Atlantic Ocean circulation, and a rapid decline of δ13C during the Early Holocene with stabilization after about 10,000 years ago to afforestation at our study site. We conclude that winter climate dynamics dominated Holocene temperature evolution in the continental interior of Eurasia, in contrast to regions more proximal to the ocean. Models and proxy data diverge on the global temperature evolution of the Holocene, perhaps due to representation of the seasons. Isotopic analyses of stalagmites from the Ural Mountains suggest that winter climate dominated in the Eurasian interior.

Global fine-mode aerosol radiative effect, as constrained by comprehensive observations

Abstract. Aerosols directly affect the radiative balance of the Earth through the absorption and scattering of solar radiation. Although the contributions of absorption (heating) and scattering (cooling) of sunlight have proved difficult to quantify, the consensus is that anthropogenic aerosols cool the climate, partially offsetting the warming by rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent estimates of global direct anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (i.e., global radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions) are −0.35 ± 0.5 W m−2, and these estimates depend heavily on aerosol simulation. Here, we integrate a comprehensive suite of satellite and ground-based observations to constrain total aerosol optical depth (AOD), its fine-mode fraction, the vertical distribution of aerosols and clouds, and the collocation of clouds and overlying aerosols. We find that the direct fine-mode aerosol radiative effect is −0.46 W m−2 (−0.54 to −0.39 W m−2). Fine-mode aerosols include sea salt and dust aerosols, and we find that these natural aerosols result in a very large cooling (−0.44 to −0.26 W m−2) when constrained by observations. When the contribution of these natural aerosols is subtracted from the fine-mode radiative effect, the net becomes −0.11 (−0.28 to +0.05) W m−2. This net arises from total (natural + anthropogenic) carbonaceous, sulfate and nitrate aerosols, which suggests that global direct anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing is less negative than −0.35 W m−2.

Impact of rising greenhouse gas concentrations on future tropical ozone and UV exposure

AbstractFuture projections of tropical total column ozone (TCO) are challenging, as its evolution is affected not only by the expected decline of ozone depleting substances but also by the uncertain increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To assess the range of tropical TCO projections, we analyze simulations with a chemistry‐climate model forced by three different GHG scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). We find that tropical TCO will be lower by the end of the 21st century compared to the 1960s in all scenarios with the largest decrease in the medium RCP6.0 scenario. Uncertainties of the projected TCO changes arise from the magnitude of stratospheric column decrease and tropospheric ozone increase which both strongly vary between the scenarios. In the three scenario simulations the stratospheric column decrease is not compensated by the increase in tropospheric ozone. The concomitant increase in harmful ultraviolet irradiance reaches up to 15% in specific regions in the RCP6.0 scenario.

Climatic impacts of stratospheric geoengineering with sulfate, black carbon and titania injection

Abstract. In this paper, we examine the potential climatic effects of geoengineering by sulfate, black carbon and titania injection against a baseline RCP8.5 scenario. We use the HadGEM2-CCS model to simulate scenarios in which the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations is offset by sufficient aerosol injection throughout the 2020–2100 period. We find that the global-mean temperature is effectively maintained at historical levels for the entirety of the period for all three aerosol-injection scenarios, though there is a wide range of side-effects which are discussed in detail. The most prominent conclusion is that although the BC injection rate necessary to produce an equivalent global mean temperature response is much lower, the severity of stratospheric temperature changes (&gt; +70 °C) and precipitation impacts effectively exclude BC from being a viable option for geoengineering. Additionally, while it has been suggested that titania would be an effective particle because of its high scattering efficiency, it also efficiently absorbs solar ultraviolet radiation producing a significant stratospheric warming (&gt; +20 °C). As injection rates and climatic impacts for titania are close to those for sulfate, there appears to be little benefit in terms of climatic influence of using titania when compared to the injection of sulfur dioxide, which has the added benefit of being well-modeled through extensive research that has been carried out on naturally occurring explosive volcanic eruptions.

Regional and global forcing of glacier retreat during the last deglaciation.

The ongoing retreat of glaciers globally is one of the clearest manifestations of recent global warming associated with rising greenhouse gas concentrations. By comparison, the importance of greenhouse gases in driving glacier retreat during the most recent deglaciation, the last major interval of global warming, is unclear due to uncertainties in the timing of retreat around the world. Here we use recently improved cosmogenic-nuclide production-rate calibrations to recalculate the ages of 1,116 glacial boulders from 195 moraines that provide broad coverage of retreat in mid-to-low-latitude regions. This revised history, in conjunction with transient climate model simulations, suggests that while several regional-scale forcings, including insolation, ice sheets and ocean circulation, modulated glacier responses regionally, they are unable to account for global-scale retreat, which is most likely related to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Agricultural irrigation requirements under future climate scenarios in China

Projecting future water demand, especially in terms of agricultural irrigation demand, as well as identifying high-risk areas and establishing appropriate water demand management has become increasingly important in China. Climate scenarios provide opportunities to predict future irrigation requirements (IRs). We examined changes in IRs and agricultural drought in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations in China using eight global climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. In this research, Northeast China, the North China Plain and the Yarlung Tsangpo River Valley area in southeastern Tibet were estimated to receive more precipitation in the future, whereas Southeast and Northwest China, especially the Junggar and Tarim basins in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, will receive less precipitation. IRs will undergo a significant increase in summer (June–August), especially in July, whereas the smallest increase was predicted to occur in autumn (September–November). Middle rice was identified as the greatest contributor to the increase in total IRs. The areas predicted to experience significant increases in IRs include Northwest China (the Tarim and Junggar basins in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, the Hexi Corridor in Gansu province and the Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi province), Southeast China (especially Fujian province), and Southwest China (Yarlung Tsangpo River Valley area in Tibet and the Sichuan Basin).

Confronting Climate-Related Disasters in Asia and the Pacific

Abstract The frequency of intense natural disasters has been on the rise worldwide over the past 40 years. Meanwhile, temperatures have risen on average, while both temperatures and precipitation have become more variable and more extreme. Their impacts are clearly visible in Asia and the Pacific region, which has seen some of the most damaging natural disasters. Recent scientific evidence points to the link between rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and climate variables such as temperature and precipitation that underlie floods, storms, droughts and heatwaves. Rising population exposure, greater population vulnerability, and increasing climate-related hazards are three main disaster risk factors behind the increased frequency of intense natural disasters. A study underlying this paper finds an association between more frequent climatological disasters (relating to droughts and heat waves) and rising temperatures; and between hydrometeorological disasters (relating to floods and storms) and people locating in harm’s way and precipitation anomalies. These findings underpin the necessity of greater prevention of natural disasters, and of integrating climate adaptation and mitigation in reducing disaster risks. With no let-up in the increasing costs of disasters to lives and livelihood, homes and infrastructure - such preventive measures must be part of policy and planning.