Rising Government Debt Research Articles

The Impact of Fiscal Councils on Public Perception: A Survey Experiment in the Czech Republic

Abstract This study examines the influence of fiscal councils on public opinion regarding fiscal issues. Using a survey-framing experiment on a representative sample of 900 inhabitants of the Czech Republic, the study evaluates how the framing of a message regarding the negative effects of rising government debt would impact the attitudes of respondents. The results show that framing the message as coming from the Czech Fiscal Council does not increase its credibility. Fiscal councils should not focus on persuading the public of their viewpoint on public finance issues, but rather utilize the knowledge of agenda-setting theory to gain media attention for fiscal issues.

Government debt and fiscal multipliers in the era of population aging

Abstract Over the past decade, the most salient changes in macroeconomic conditions in developed economies have included rising government debt and population aging, which are strongly correlated with each other. This paper investigates fiscal multipliers by disentangling the effects of population aging from those of government debt. Our analysis, which uses heterogeneous panel data from 24 OECD economies, shows that while fiscal policy is ineffective for economies with high-debt levels, it is effective for economies with low-debt levels. Furthermore, the estimation results reveal that fiscal policy is ineffective for aged economies, regardless of the level of government debt. However, for nonaged economies, while fiscal policy leads to negative effects on output in times of high debt, its positive effects are more pronounced in times of low debt. Our results suggest that, for the effective implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, policy-based stimulation of employment in the labor market is essential.

The impact of government borrowing on corporate acquisitions: international evidence

This study examines how variation in government borrowing affects corporate acquisition activity around the world. Using a large sample of firms and deals from 50 countries between 1991 and 2017, the paper finds that government debt issuance is strongly negatively associated with acquisition activity at the firm and aggregate levels. An instrumental variable approach corroborates these findings, thus supporting their causal interpretation. In response to increases in government borrowing, firms appear to make more value-enhancing deals. These effects are stronger for cash-financed deals and for financially stronger firms. Collectively, these findings suggest that rising government debt leads to ‘real crowding out’ by affecting firms’ ability to make large investments.

Exchange rate changes on export volumes in South Africa under the inflation targeting period.

This paper examines the long run effects of the exchange rate changes on export volumes in South Africa under the inflation targeting period using the Johansen cointegration and the Engle–Granger approaches. This paper further examines whether the 2007 global financial crisis, rising government debt, and cost of credit post 2008Q4 impacted the magnitudes of determinants of export volumes. Both tests confirm a long run relationship amongst export volumes, exchange rate, and foreign income. The long run exchange rate impacts are bigger than the short run effects. Foreign income demand has bigger impact on export volumes than the exchange rate. Evidence shows that 2007 global financial crisis reduced the impact of the exchange rate depreciation on export volumes but increased the impact of the foreign income demand. This suggests relying on the exchange rate as a policy tool alone to achieve the external adjustment may not raise export volumes. The global financial crisis exacerbated the adverse effects of the exchange rate volatility on the export volumes, indicating that policymakers should implement policies that limit the exchange rate volatility. The adverse effects of the global financial crisis on export volumes were transmitted more via the consumer prices rather than the exchange rate, suggesting that South Africa lost its price competitiveness during the crisis period. Rising government debt and the cost of credit post 2008Q4 are transmitted more via the exchange rate than relative price ratios to reduce export volumes. The exchange rate volatility channel does not transmit the rising government debt shocks to export volumes.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43546-022-00217-2.

Binding constraints to productive investment in Malawi: A modified HRV framework

AbstractThe paper applies a modified Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco (HRV) growth diagnostics framework to analyse Malawi's growth challenges. The study finds five critical binding constraints affecting productive investment and output growth in Malawi. These include land administration, taxation, customs and trade regulations, political governance, and cost‐of‐finance. Land constraints are evidenced by highly urban and rural population growth, an inverse co‐movement between the rural population and investment per capita, and low land administration indices. Tax constraints are evidenced by the negative growth of investment per capita. Customs and trade regulations constraints are evidenced by nontariff measures, such as high costs and the time it takes to export and import. Political governance constraints are evidenced by rising government debt and the low score on transparency, accountability, and corruption based on the World Bank's Public Transparency Scale. Lastly, high cost‐of‐finance constraints are evidenced by monetary policy challenges, such as high real interest rates, inflation rate, uncompetitive exchange rate, and foreign aid ineffectiveness. Therefore, we recommend that the formulation of crucial policy strategies to alleviate these five significant binding constraints be encouraged. The government should base such an approach to sound growth therapeutics that fully account for each challenge's root causes.

Fiscal Policy and Household’s Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial

Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy “dominates” monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.

Fiscal Policy and Households' Inflation Expectations: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial

Rising government debt levels around the world are raising the specter that authorities might seek to inflate away the debt. In theoretical settings where fiscal policy “dominates” monetary policy, higher debt without offsetting changes in primary surpluses should lead households to anticipate this higher inflation. Are household inflation expectations sensitive to fiscal considerations in practice? We field a large randomized control trial on U.S. households to address this question by providing randomly chosen subsets of households with information treatments about the fiscal outlook and then observing how they revise their expectations about future inflation as well as taxes and government spending. We find that information about the current debt or deficit levels has little impact on inflation expectations but that news about future debt leads them to anticipate higher inflation, both in the short run and long run. News about rising debt also induces households to anticipate rising spending and a higher rate of interest for government debt.

Sovereign debt crisis management by the European Central Bank

"Following the bursting of the real estate crisis of 2007 and the financial crisis of 2008, the European Union faced another difficult situation, namely the sovereign debt crisis, when the euro was put to the test. The sovereign debt crisis is a widely debated and analyzed topic both in Romania and in Europe. Given the effects it generates, amid rising government debt and the instability of the banking system, it is important to know its causes, in order to subsequently identify the most effective measures to improve the economic situation in each affected state. This paper seeks to discuss the concept of sovereign debt crisis by conducting an analysis of government debt sustainability and the budget deficit in the European Union, as well as a forecast of government debt sustainability in Romania, reflecting the measures implemented by the Central Bank EU. According to the Maastricht criteria, the nominal convergence indicators, including the budget deficit and government debt, must be below the alert level, so that they are in line with European Union requirements. The level of the consolidated budget deficit must be less than 3%, and in terms of government debt, it must be below 60% of GDP. The rationale for choosing this theme is that the existence of such a crisis at European level can significantly affect the economic context of each Member State of the European Union (EU), in terms of the interconnection of the global financial system. This interconnection refers to the idea that, when a state becomes involved in the claim of sovereign debt, it indisputably endangers part of the external private debt. This concept is also called in the literature and contagion effect. The relevance of this theme lies in the analysis of the evolution of the main indicators that led to the onset of the sovereign debt crisis, as well as in the identification of its causes, in order to prevent enlargement."

Drivers of European public debt management

This study analyses the choice of government debt managers in the euro area between issuing short‐term or long‐term debt over the period 1992‐2017. Debt managers increased short‐term debt issuance in response to higher interest rate spreads and to rising government debt, notably in vulnerable, high‐debt countries. Thus, lower long-term rates as a result of ECB’s Quantitative Easing (QE) triggered debt managers to focus debt issuance on the long‐term end. Moreover, the usual increase in debt maturity when debt rises ceases to operate when QE is active, possibly because markets perceived it as a backstop to the government bond market. However, limited QE experience calls for caution in interpreting the results. JEL Classification: H63, G12

The Economic Context for Reforming the Safety Net

As we wrestle with the future of our safety net and social insurance programs, it is important to understand not only the features and outcomes associated with individual programs but also the broader economic context. This reflection piece discusses several relevant aspects of the macroeconomy and of economic and financial conditions facing households: rising government debt, slower macroeconomic growth, limited tools to fight future recessions, greater income inequality, and the financial struggles of households. It goes on to draw lessons for how we should reform our system of entitlement programs.

The Impact of Government Borrowing on Corporate Acquisitions: International Evidence

This paper examines how variation in the supply of government debt affects corporate acquisition activity. Using data from 50 countries from 1991 to 2017, the paper finds that government debt issuance is strongly negatively associated with acquisition activity at the firm and aggregate levels. In response to increases in government borrowing, firms appear to make better quality deals. Importantly, these effects are stronger for cash-financed deals and for more creditworthy firms whose debt is closer substitute for government bonds. Collectively, these findings suggest that rising government debt leads to “real crowding out” by affecting firm ability to make large investments.

Rising Government Debt and What to Do About it

Over the past four decades, government debt as a fraction of GDP has been on an upward trajectory in advanced economies, approaching levels not reached since World War II. While normative macroeconomic theories can explain the increase in the level of debt in certain periods as a response to macroeconomic shocks, they cannot explain the broad-based long-run trend in debt accumulation. In contrast, political economy theories can explain the long-run trend as resulting from an aging population, rising political polarization, and rising electoral uncertainty across advanced economies. These theories emphasize the time-inconsistency in government policymaking, and thus the need for fiscal rules that restrict policymakers. Fiscal rules trade off commitment to not overspend and flexibility to react to shocks. This tradeoff guides design features of optimal rules, such as information dependence, enforcement, cross-country coordination, escape clauses, and instrument vs. target criteria.

Foreign Debt and its Implications for Pakistan’s National Security

National security implications of the rising government debt in Pakistan increase concerns about military powers such as the USA and industrial giants such as Japan. This paper examines the unprecedented rise and abundant use of debt by governments since 2008. Apart from economic sustainability risks of the debt, the paper also traces history of Pakistan’s search for national security since 1947. Pakistan achieved nuclear capability in the face of opposition from the USA. There are fears that in the presence of huge external debts and low capacity to service them, Pakistan may not be able to take independent decisions regarding national security. The paper offers recommendations to overcome the threats

Rising Government Debt: Causes and Solutions for a Decades-Old Trend

Over the past four decades, government debt as a fraction of GDP has been on an upward trajectory in advanced economies, approaching levels not reached since World War II. While normative macroeconomic theories can explain the increase in the level of debt in certain periods as a response to macroeconomic shocks, they cannot explain the broad-based long-run trend in debt accumulation. In contrast, political economy theories can explain the long-run trend as resulting from an aging population, rising political polarization, and rising electoral uncertainty across advanced economies. These theories emphasize the time-inconsistency in government policymaking, and thus the need for fiscal rules that restrict policymakers. Fiscal rules trade off commitment to not overspend and flexibility to react to shocks. This tradeoff guides design features of optimal rules, such as information dependence, enforcement, cross-country coordination, escape clauses, and instrument versus target criteria.

Investigating a new wealth tax in South Africa: Lessons from international experience

In recent years, there has been an increasing focus on new sources of taxation, including wealth tax. In South Africa, two phenomena have driven the focus on wealth tax. Firstly, the need for additional tax revenue to fund an ongoing and growing budget deficit, exacerbated by a prolonged period of low economic growth, rising government debt and a very small base of individual taxpayers. Secondly, the fact that South Africa has one of the most unequal societies in the world. The dual demands of increased tax revenue and economic inequality have converged around wealth tax as a possible panacea to both problems. Although South Africa has a long history of wealth transfer tax in the form of estate duty and donations tax, there has never been a tax on the net wealth holdings of individuals during their lifetime. Internationally, numerous countries have used wealth tax in various forms, including inheritance tax, gift tax, recurrent wealth tax and non-recurrent wealth tax. This study examines some of the international experiences with these three categories of wealth tax, seeking lessons and experiences that can inform the debate around the viability of a new wealth tax in South Africa.

The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations

The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies. At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically explore the connections between these two facts by extending to longer horizons the methodology of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) regarding fiscal policy multipliers. Our results provide support for the presence of strong hysteresis effects of fiscal policy. The large size of the effects points in the direction of self-defeating fiscal consolidations as suggested by DeLong and Summers (2012). Attempts to reduce debt via fiscal consolidations have very likely resulted in a higher debt to GDP ratio through their long-term negative impact on output.

Local Government Entrepreneurship in China: A Public Policy Perspective

While local government entrepreneurship has long been regarded as one of the main drivers of China’s economic growth, it has increasingly been recognised as a potential source of a set of harmful policy consequences in recent years, such as rising government debt crises, pervasive corruption and environmental degradation. These criticisms have prompted questions about what types of entrepreneurship might be more desirable, and which incentive structures might be necessary to pave the way for the right kind of local government entrepreneurship. The articles in this special issue focus on new developments in local government entrepreneurship from a public policy perspective. Collectively, they explore the normative dimensions of local government entrepreneurship in China, with an emphasis on necessary policy changes to shape local government entrepreneurship in contributing to economic growth as well as other key policy objectives.

Monetary & fiscal policy implications for rising government debt under labor endogeneity

Several advanced economies are heading towards a period of fiscal stress; aging population raises government transfers which in turn increases nominal government debt. Existing literature studies how alternative combinations of monetary and fiscal policies can stabilize real debt in the face of exponentially rising transfers. This paper develops an overlapping generations (OG) model with endogenous labor to study the implications of labor supply decisions on the path of real government debt under alternative monetary and fiscal policy combinations and finds that adopting a policy regime where the monetary authority passively targets inflation in the face of rising transfers, even before the economy is at the fiscal limit, might stabilize inflation better than an active monetary regime. The model in the paper has been calibrated to the US economy to demonstrate dynamic effects.

Introduction: Local Government Entrepreneurship in China: A Public Policy Perspective

While local government entrepreneurship has long been regarded as one of the main drivers of China’s economic growth, it has increasingly been recognised as a potential source of a set of harmful policy consequences in recent years, such as rising government debt crises, pervasive corruption and environmental degradation. These criticisms have prompted questions about what types of entrepreneurship might be more desirable, and which incentive structures might be necessary to pave the way for the right kind of local government entrepreneurship. The articles in this special issue focus on new developments in local government entrepreneurship from a public policy perspective. Collectively, they explore the normative dimensions of local government entrepreneurship in China, with an emphasis on necessary policy changes to shape local government entrepreneurship in contributing to economic growth as well as other key policy objectives.

Government Debt and its Macroeconomic Determinants An Empirical Investigation

In the context of rising government debt levels in advanced economies and the ongoing euro zone debt crisis, there has been a revival of academic and policy debate on the impact of growing government debt on economic growth. This data-rich study offers an econometric investigation of the macroeconomic determinants of government debt and answers the much-debated question – What factors influence the government debt in a sovereign country? The study provides analyses for economy groupings, political governance groupings and income groupings of countries in addition to the full sample. Panel Granger causality testing is employed to establish causality running from the determinants of debt. The results of the full sample analysis reveal that real GDP growth, foreign direct investment, government expenditure, inflation and population growth have negative effect on debt. Gross fixed capital formation, final consumption expenditure, and trade openness have positive effect on debt. The results for different country groupings bring out some interesting implications.