Rising Food Prices Research Articles

Current trends in food security

The problem of food security has always been relevant and was studied by academics from the economic, environmental, social, and gender approaches, however rising prices, and in some cases food shortages, have triggered a new interest in this area of research. This problem is being addressed at the level of the state and international organizations. However, the approach to the task of these actors is different. If international organizations approach the problem of the food security from the standpoint of the international norm “the right to food”, relying on the postulates of neoliberalism, then states consider the necessity to provide population with food as a dilemma, where national interests outweigh the scales. The armed conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated the problem of food security, as food supply chains have been disrupted, provoking states to treat the export and import of food from the point of view of neorealists. This, in turn, led to food shortages, rising food prices, and in some places even famine. A survey of Kazakhstani population showed that there are some socially vulnerable people for whom the problem of providing the nutrition necessary for a healthy lifestyle is acute, which indicates the need for further research with the subsequent adoption of positive changes in food security policy.

Регулирование рынка зерна: зерновой демпфер

Growth of grain exports is one of the priority tasks of the domestic agro-industrial complex. In recent years Russia has been consistently increasing production and supply of grain to the foreign market. Along with the growth of grain supplies to the external market there is a growing dependence of domestic prices on the rising prices of the world market. A number of measures have been taken to curb rising food prices in Russia. In particular, because of substantial growth of prices and necessity to stabilize food market on February 6, 2021 there was accepted the governmental decree 117 about export duties on grain. The article analyzes this Decree and the situation on the domestic grain market. The mechanism of the «grain dampener», its positive and negative impact on the domestic food market is considered. The conclusion is made that this tool needs to be improved and synchronized with other instruments of state regulation of the grain market. The relevant recommendations are given.

THE UKRAINE CRISIS AND THE FOOD SECURITY IN IRAN

In the past year, Iran has witnessed high inflation of food items and the spread of food insecurity. However, the whole world has witnessed the crisis of rising food prices after the war in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine are two large producers of agricultural fertilizers and some food products, which, along with Belarus (sanctioned supporter of Russia and producer of fertilizers), can play an important role in price changes in the market .But this trend of rising prices has been more intense in Iran. So much so that according to the official report of the World Bank, Iran is the third country in the world in the real rate of food inflation. According to the rapid changes in food prices, there is a connection between the war in Ukraine and food inflation in Iran. On the other hand, studies show that due to the lack of high food trade between Iran and Ukraine, this unbridled food inflation in Iran cannot be caused by the problem of imports from Ukraine. As a result, there is an indirect relationship between the war in Ukraine and food inflation in Iran. A set of factors such as harsh sanctions, non-payment of subsidies, multi-rate currency, rent, etc. has created a potential for explosion. And the war in Ukraine played a role of a match on this gunpowder store.

FOOD INFLATION AND CHILD HEALTH IN AFRICA: EVIDENCE FROM COUNTRIES WITH HIGH MISERY INDEX

This paper investigates the effect of food price inflation on the public health improvement as measured in terms of life expectancy, infant mortality rate, under five mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate in six selected African countries with high misery index for the period from 2000 to 2020. The Augmented Mean Group and Common Correlated Estimation Mean Group were used to determine the effect, as well as Westerlund Cointegration tests. Our findings revealed that rising food prices have a significant detrimental effect on nourishment and consequently lead to higher levels of infant under five and neonatal mortality while reducing the expected life expectancy in the African countries. High food price inflation also has a long run effect on public health. The implication of the result shows that with high rate of food prices coupled with poor child health, the Sustainable Development Goals target of ending preventable deaths of newborns and children under age of 5, and the aim of having a neonatal mortality rate of 12 or fewer deaths per 1,000 live births, and an under-five mortality rate of 25 or fewer deaths per 1,000 live births, by 2030 may not be realistic. Therefore, African Governments should gear up efforts towards reducing food price inflation, improving health expenditure, per capita income and enabling environment for safe sanitation, especially for pregnant women and little children. Also, Governments should create enabling environment for sanitation and access to safe drinking water.

Exploring household financial strain dynamics

Rising energy and food prices are causing living standards to fall across Europe and straining household budgets. The longer-term outlook for households is unclear as the dynamics of financial strain are not well understood. We address four important research questions on financial strain dynamics by applying a dynamic random coefficients probit model with duration and occurrence dependence to De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Household Survey panel data. We find no evidence that households become habituated or sensitised to financial strain over time unlike in studies of responses to stress. Entry into household financial strain is less likely when the household can cope by increasing earnings from work or by borrowing from family and friends but not by the economically inactive entering employment. Our third result is that the persistence of financial strain can be explained by a mutually-enforcing negative cycle through worse health but not through marital conflict or more short-sighted and risk averse decision-making. Finally, we find that neither income or wealth shocks affect financial strain in contrast to other studies. Further research into understanding the experience of financial hardship is warranted in the light of the economic challenges caused by the current cost of living crisis.

Screening Bambara Groundnut (Vigna subterranea L. Verdc) Genotypes for Drought Tolerance at the Germination Stage under Simulated Drought Conditions.

Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranean L. Verdc) is grown by smallholders and subsistence farmers in the marginal parts of sub-Saharan Africa. This legume is native to Africa and is cultivated throughout semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa. It is hardy and has been recognized as a nutritious food source in times of scarcity. Drought can negatively affect the germination or establishment of seedlings in the early stages of crop growth. Drought can limit the growing season of certain crops and create conditions that encourage the invasion of insects and diseases. Drought can also lead to a lack of crop yield, leading to rising food prices, shortages, and possibly malnutrition in vulnerable populations. A drought-tolerant genotype can be identified at the germination stage of Bambara groundnut by screening for drought-tolerance traits, and this knowledge can be applied to Bambara crop improvement programs to identify drought-tolerant traits during early growth phases. As an osmolyte, polyethylene glycol (PEG 6000) reduced water potential and simulated drought stress in Bambara groundnut seeds of different genotypes. Osmolytes are low-molecular-weight organic compounds that influence biological fluid properties. In this study, 24 Bambara groundnut genotypes were used. Data were collected on seed germination percentage (G%), germination velocity index (GVI), mean germination time (MGT), root dry mass (RDM), root fresh mass (RFM), and seven drought tolerance indices: mean productivity (MP), tolerance index (TOL), geometric mean productivity (GMP), stress susceptibility index (SSI), yield index (YI), yield stability index (YSI), stress tolerance index (STI) as well as seed coat color measurements. The data were applied to the mean observation of genotypes under simulated drought conditions (Ys) and the mean observation of genotypes under controlled conditions (Yp). Germination%, germination velocity index (GVI), mass germination time (MGT), and root fresh mass (RFM) differed significantly (p < 0.001) between the two stress conditions. Bambara genotypes Acc 82 and Acc 96 were found to be the most drought-tolerant.

Russia-Ukraine War, its Impacts on Food Security in Africa

The study examines the pattern of food inflation in Africa, the extent to which Russia-Ukraine war impacted food inflation in Africa and find out whether the war going on between Russia and Ukraine is likely to instigate social unrest in Africa. The study was a longitudinal panel design. Three research questions guided the study. The population comprised 39 time series data points which spanned January 2019 to March 2022 on food inflation for the 54 African countries. A sample size of four countries comprising of Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya and Morocco were purposively selected. Data were sourced from Trading Economics database and analyzed using descriptive analysis trend analysis, mean, and percentage. Results showed that Nigeria recorded the highest food inflation rate relative to the other sampled countries. Morocco recorded the least food inflation rate. However, Morocco and Kenya were struck the most by food prices as a result of the war. The study also found out that the continuous rise in food prices has the potential to spark social unrest in Africa. The paper recommends that government at all level should ensure that security of life and property is guarantee. That way farmers can safely go about with their agricultural activities.

Is a Food Shortage Coming to the Western Balkans?

In the wake of the international food crisis, many countries are paying more attention to food self-sufficiency to protect themselves from instability in the global food markets. Western Balkan region and the rest of the world are facing an array of challenges, including inflation and rising food prices. Recognizing the importance of producing sufficient food to cover a country's needs in circumstances of increasing risk of trade disruptions due to war or political tensions, this article aims to find the level of food self-sufficiency in the Western Balkan countries. The self-sufficiency ratio is calculated for different food groups and individual products over a 14-year period (2006-2019) based on the FAO data and calculation method. Also, using panel data, the impact of different factors-arable land, rural population, fertilizers efficiency, temperature change, precipitation, and GDP per capita change-on cereals self-sufficiency is estimated. Results showed that in the covered pre-crisis period, the Western Balkans achieved a satisfactory level of food self-sufficiency, suggesting that the region is ready to respond to future challenges. Four indicators positively and significantly affect cereal self-sufficiency: arable land, rural population, fertilizers efficiency and GDP per capita change, while one indicator-temperature change-had a negative and significant effect. This article can serve as a basis for post-crisis research on the topic.

Sick, Hungry, and Vulnerable: Federal Stimulus and Food Security on Marginalized Populations During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

In addition to the threat of serious illness, COVID-19 and subsequent restrictions had devastating economic consequences for many US citizens. This study examines the evolution of food security over the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic testing whether the initial economic stimulus payment improved the nutritional well-being of vulnerable populations. We use data from phase 1 of the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey among a nationally representative sample of adults and the 2017-2018 Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement. Using an ordered logistic regression, we assess differences in the incidence and severity of food security across demographic, income, geographic, and employment status cohorts and assess the effects of the first economic stimulus payment. Our results show that marginalized groups faced greater food insecurity and had food-related outcomes worsen over time. Blacks, Hispanics, and individuals living in rural areas became less food secure as the pandemic progressed. However, receipt of a stimulus payment appears to have improved conditions. Rising food prices and persistent high unemployment have the potential to exacerbate food insecurity among marginalized and at-risk groups.

Assessing climate change-related losses and damages and adaptation constraints to address them: Evidence from flood-prone riverine communities in Southern Nigeria

Rising evidence over the years reveal that reduction in greenhouse gases emission and adaptation to climate change effects have been unable to resolve the issue of climate change impacts, resulting to losses and damages. This has been attributed to natural, technical and economic constraints. In Nigeria, extreme climate events such as precipitation extremes and floods have been increasingly observed resulting in losses and damages in flood-prone communities. This study was aimed at assessing climate change-related losses and damages due to floods among farm households in riverine areas of Southern Nigeria. A multistage sampling procedure was utilized in selecting 240 households within eight riverine communities in Southern Nigeria. A mixed method research approach was used in eliciting responses from the respondents. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. The market cost approach was used to value the losses and damages due to climate change. The respondents identified flooding as the major climate change hazard in the study location. The major effects of flooding on the livelihood of the respondents were loss of crops (98.6%), rise in food prices (92.8%) and poor health (75.6%). In response to increased climatic threats, farmers adopted various adaptation measures such as altering inputs such as varieties/species, income diversification and chemical fertilizer and pesticide use. The estimated average monetary value of losses and damages in community infrastructure, employment, personal properties, crops and livestock were $28,409.09, $3095.23, $1583.52, $824.60 and $224.16, respectively. Perceived barriers to the respondents’ taking adaptation actions in response to climate change-related losses and damages are inadequate government support, poor income of the respondents, high cost of transportation to purchase inputs for climate change adaptation and inadequate knowledge/information on climate change adaptation measures. We recommend that early warning mechanisms and alternative livelihood strategies should be promoted in vulnerable areas in order to reduce losses and damages due to climate change.

ENSURING FOOD SECURITY UNDER SANCTIONS PRESSURE

The relevance of the research has been substantiated. Russia is under unprecedented external pressure from a wide range of economic sanctions. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable in such conditions. In this connection, there is an objective need for a systematic analysis and forecasting of measures taken to protect the domestic food market. The article outlines the main directions of the state economic policy of the Russian Federation. The main factors influencing the rise in food prices have been identified. These factors include an increase in the cost of the production cycle of crops and livestock due to import dependence, disruption of supply chains, mandatory labeling of certain goods, an increase in the price of mineral fertilizers, an increase in electricity tariffs and packaging costs, the exhaustion of limits on preferential loans to agricultural producers, an increase in world prices for food products deterioration of natural and climatic conditions. The level of self-sufficiency in basic foodstuffs and the main factors of growth in food prices have been considered. In addition, food inflation in the Russian Federation has been studied. Particular attention is paid to the measures taken by the Government that will help stabilize prices for important agricultural products and thereby ensure the country's food security: a temporary ban on the export of sunflower and rapeseed seeds; a quota for deliveries abroad of sunflower oil and cake, as well as solid residues from sunflower seeds; limiting the number of checkpoints for the export of soybeans and soybean meal from Russia; introduction of duties on the export of sunflower meal and oilseed flax. The purpose of the research is to study the measures taken by the Government to protect the domestic food market and stabilize prices for important agricultural products, as well as to identify the main factors affecting the rise in food prices. This study was conducted using the methods of statistical analysis, synthesis, comparison and deductive method.

Dynamics of Food Price Inflation and Its Determinants in Ethiopia: ARDL Approach to Con Integration

The inflation picture is more heterogeneous in transition and developing economies. In Ethiopia, the year-on-year food inflation has increased by 42.0 percent in September 2021 as compared to the one observed in September 2020. The main objective of this study is to investigate the dynamics of food price inflation and its determinants in Ethiopia. For data analysis autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to con-integration model was used. The results suggested that food price inflation appears to be strongly significant and positive in explaining current food inflationary pressures in the short-run and negative in the long run. In effect, a one percent rise in food prices in the previous year causes the actual food prices to increase in short-run and declines in the long-run. These results emphasized the importance of inflation inertia and persistent price-price spiral movement in Ethiopian food price dynamics. Money supply positively influenced food price inflation growth in the short-run and in long-run. In the same way, the exchange rate influenced food price inflation positively in the short-run and long-run. Food inflation is also negatively influenced by real gross domestic product in US Dollar in both the short-run and long-run. In the same way government budget deficit and general consumer price index affected food price inflation significantly. Therefore, as policy recommendation, policy makers need to take appropriate measure to follow tight monetary policy and find the right balance between money demand and economic growth when needed without over-pumping money into the economy which causes inflation. As it is inferred from the research work the influence of exchange rate on food price is for both the short-run and long-run so that the government needs to focus on the way to control instability in exchange rate by devising a right macroeconomic policy to constrain the upward spiral movement of food price inflation. In regarding budget deficit and general consumer price index, the right decision to stabilize the country’s economy by the government is required. Keywords: Food Price Inflation. Dynamics, ARDL, Con integration DOI: 10.7176/JESD/13-21-03 Publication date: November 30 th 2022

Agricultural Economic Resilience in the Context of International Food Price Fluctuation—An Empirical Analysis on the Main Grain–Producing Areas in Northeast China

In the context of international food price fluctuations, agricultural economic development is usually subject to large shocks, which also leads to clear spatial–temporal differentiation in regional agricultural economic resilience. However, there is a paucity of retrievable studies on the evolutionary process of agricultural economic resilience and its impact mechanisms. Taking the impact of and disturbance caused by international food price fluctuations on the agricultural economy from 2005 to 2021 as the research background, this paper adopts the economic resilience analysis framework and selects gross agricultural output value indicators to measure the agricultural economic resilience of 12 cities in the main grain-producing areas in Northeast China–Sanjiang Plain and Songnen Plain. At the same time, the regression model is used to further analyze the spatial and temporal changes of agricultural economic resilience and the main influencing factors. Based on the results of the research, it can be concluded that: ① international food prices exert different degrees of influence on agricultural economic resilience at different stages. From 2005 to 2013, the agricultural economic resilience of the two plains changed less, and the resilience capacity performed better in both the period of falling and rising international food prices, while from 2014 to 2021, the agricultural economic resilience of the two plains changed more due to the great impact of international food price fluctuations, with a steep decline in resilience capacity in the period of falling international food prices from 2014 to 2017, followed by a rapid rebound between 2018 and 2021. ② There are differences in the resilience capacity of the agricultural economy in the main maize- and rice-producing areas. Although it is a fact that agricultural economic development in the two major plains is faster than the national average in most periods, the comparison reveals that the main corn-producing area (Songnen Plain) is more volatile and its resilience capacity is relatively weak in both periods of falling and rising food prices, while the main rice-producing area (Sanjiang Plain) is less volatile, indicating its relatively strong agricultural economic resilience capacity. ③ Factors affecting agricultural economic resilience behave differently over the three cycles. During the period of rising international food prices, indicators reflecting agricultural production capacity have a greater impact on agricultural economic resilience, while during the period of falling international food prices, indicators reflecting agricultural input intensity and agricultural support capacity have a greater impact on agricultural economic resilience.

Prospects And Possibilities To Spur Productivity In The Informal Economy Of Nigeria

More than 20 million Nigerians and their families are left without food because they are unemployed, have no source of income, and are suffering from rising food prices, insecurity, and a lack of any kind of government assistance.

Impact of rising food prices on food security in Rajasthan and Gujarat

A large area of Gujarat and Rajasthan is rain-fed exposing rural population to food prices spike due to frequent droughts. The present study was conducted in year 2020 and is based on NSSO data on household consumption expenditures of rural households of these states for the year 2009 to analyse the effects that food price changes have on food expenditure and calorie intake. The results show a strong negative effect of price rises on calorie intake. The negative impact of prices of foods particularly wheat, and milk is more on richer than on poorer households as they have the capability to cut calorie intake in the event of a price rise while its opposite for coarse cereals. The food prices particularly, milk, wheat and, pulses also have highly positive influence on food expenditure of poorer households. Rice price does not have much significant effect on food security in both the states.

The locust plagues in the Yangtze River Delta of China during the Ming and Qing Dynasties

The Little Ice Age was concurrent with frequent natural disasters in China during the Ming and Qing Dynasties (1368–1911 AD). Using historical documents created in the Yangtze River Delta during these dynasties, we reconstructed the severity and frequency of locust plagues. We uncovered their temporal and spatial patterns, the relevant influencing factors, and the applied control measures. These locust plagues occurred in the Yangtze River Delta during summer and autumn and were considered moderate-degree disasters. The locust plagues during the Qing Dynasty were less harmful than those during the Ming Dynasty. The locust plagues occurred north of 31°N and were concentrated around lakes and rivers. Regarding long-term changes, three periods of frequent locust plagues were identified: 1520–1540 AD, 1610–1670 AD, and 1850–1870 AD. The locust plague cycles were dominated by long-term changes of 100 and 350 years, alternating with short-term changes of 10–30 years. Locust growth and development typically occur under suitable climate conditions. However, in the Yangtze River Delta, the relationship between locust outbreaks and temperature changes was insignificant, whereas flood disasters provided suitable humidity conditions for locust nymph growth. Locust plague outbreaks had a series of social impacts, one direct result was rising food prices. When facing locust plagues, the Ming and Qing Dynasties formed effective top-down preventative measures corresponding to local conditions. The locust plagues in the Yangtze River Delta during the Ming and Qing Dynasties occurred with regularity, were responsive to local hydrological conditions, and impacted social economies and technologies.

Dynamic livelihood impacts of COVID-19 on different rural households in mountainous areas of China.

The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has brought about severe negative livelihood consequences for rural households worldwide. However, the heterogeneity and dynamics of livelihood impacts have been under-researched. There is also lacking a livelihood assessment of the pandemic based on a whole pandemic cycle. This study aimed to investigate the dynamic and heterogeneous livelihood impacts of COVID-19 pandemic for rural households in 2020 based on a case study of Southeast China. The pandemic in China had experienced a complete cycle from initial outbreak, to intermediate recovery and finally new normal stage in 2020. We conducted face-to-face interviews with 95 rural households randomly drawn from 2 rural villages in Xunwu County, Jiangxi Province, Southeast China. The sampled households are interviewed with a questionnaire through face-to-face surveys in February and March, 2021 to evaluate the overall livelihood impacts of the pandemic during 2020. The survey collected data on demographic and economic characteristics, governmental control measures, and effects of the COVID-19 on agricultural production, employment, income, education, and daily life. In-depth interviews are also conducted to clarify the livelihood impacts of COVID-19 on villages. Results showed that the pandemic tremendously caused substantially negative livelihood impacts, including decreasing household income, and disorders in daily lives. The average income loss of all survey households is 6,842 RMB, accounting for 13.01% of the total household income in 2020. Containment measures also resulted in a series of disturbances in daily lives, such as rising food price additional expenditures, travel restrictions, party restrictions, closure of schools and deceasing living standards. There is remarkable household heterogeneity in the livelihood impacts. Results also revealed that the livelihood strategies of rural households to cope with the threat of COVID-19 were different in various pandemic stages. Our findings have illustrated the severity and heterogeneity of livelihood impacts on rural households induced by COVID-19 pandemic. The dynamics of livelihood impacts is also highlighted in the study. Several policy suggestion was proposed to mitigate these negative consequences of the pandemic.

DIRETRIZES GERAIS PARA DESENVOLVIMENTO DE UM PLANO DE AÇÃO QUE BUSQUE A REDUÇÃO DOS GASTOS COM O INSUMO ENERGIA ELÉTRICA NO ÂMBITO DO PODER PÚBLICO

DIRETRIZES GERAIS PARA DESENVOLVIMENTO DE UM PLANO DE AÇÃO QUE BUSQUE A REDUÇÃO DOS GASTOS COM O INSUMO ENERGIA ELÉTRICA NO ÂMBITO DO PODER PÚBLICO

Disparate changes of living standard in China: perspective from Engel's coefficient

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the changes in living standard among families with different socio-economic status in China with the use of Engel's Coefficient. The authors develop a decomposition methodology to figure out the driving forces behind changes in Engel's Coefficient, and investigate how dramatic economic growth, volatile food price and rapid nutrition transition affect living standard among different families.Design/methodology/approachThe authors propose a statistical method to decompose the changes in living standard measured by Engel's Coefficient into structure effect, price effect, quantity effect and income effect. Using the China Health and Nutrition Survey data between 2000 and 2011, the authors estimate these four effects by employing a decomposition method.FindingsResults show that Engel's Coefficient in China decreased by 8.7 percentage points (hereafter “pp”) during 2000–2011, where structure effect leads to 0.2 pp increase, price effect results in 17.7 pp increase, quantity effect brings about 12.4 pp decline and income effect contributes to 14.2 pp decline. Results indicate that rising food prices are the main obstacle to improve households' living standard. Typically, poor and rural families' living standard is more vulnerable to the rise in food prices, and they benefit less from income growth.Originality/valueThis study proposes a decomposition method to investigate the determinants of change in Engel's Coefficient, which provides a deeper understanding of how economic growth, food price change and nutrition transition affect people's living standard in different socio-economic groups in developing countries. This study also provides valuable insights on how to achieve common prosperity from the perspective of consumption upgrading.

State of Fruit and Vegetable Consumption in N'Djamena, Chad

Food plays a significant role in health. Fruits and vegetables are an important component of a healthy diet and, when consumed daily in sufficient quantities, they could help to prevent major conditions, such as cardiovascular disease and certain cancers. The objective of the study is to assess the state of consumption of fruits and vegetables by the population of the city of N'Djamena. Through a descriptive cross-sectional analysis, this study will provide information on fruit and vegetable consumption of 440 households in the 10 districts in the city of N'Djamena in Chad from February 20 to June 20, 2015. The study described the hygiene conditions of fruits and vegetables, the timing of fruit consumption and the portions of fruits and vegetables consumed per day in N'Djamena. The results show that 60% of those surveyed are male and 40% female. The age group (25-40 years) represents 79.31% of the respondents, followed by the group (41-55 years) with 17.93% and 2.75% for the age group between 56 and 75 years. As for the socio-professional category, the results reveal that 31.72% of those surveyed are civil servants. The results show that households whose size varies between 0 and 5 people represent 45.51% against 31.03% for households whose size varies from 6 to 10 people. It should be noted that 11.03% of households spend a daily food ration less than or equal to 1,5 $, 24.13% of households spend between 1,5 to 3 $ per day for their daily food ration and 28.27% of households use a sum ranging from 3 to 4,5 $. The majority of respondents (93.79%) do not respect hygienic practice while 20% of respondents consume one serving of fruits and vegetables per day (per person) and 39.31% consume two portions. The impact of socio-economic difficulties on fruit and vegetable consumption is confirmed. The high household size and low daily expenses for food does not allow them to consume the 5 recommended portions. This insufficient consumption of fruits and vegetables is part of a context of galloping urbanization and rising food prices. One prospect raised is to consider further surveys in population subgroups accompanied by nutrition education in order to improve the consumption of this food group.