Ring Width Research Articles

Response of Radial Growth of Mongolian Pine to Climate Factors in Mu Us Sandy Land, Inner Mongolia

The Mu Us sandy land is located on the northwestern edge of the East Asian monsoon region in China, and its environment is fragile and sensitive to climate change. To explore the response of the radial growth of Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica), the main afforestation tree species in this area, to climate change, a traditional method of tree-ring climatology was adopted to analyze the correlation of radial growth to climatic factors in the region from 1959 to 2019 based on annual ring widths of Mongolian pine. The results showed that water and heat conditions in May of the current year were the main climatic factors restricting the growth of this tree species in the Mu Us sandy land, mainly manifested as a negative correlation with the average temperature and maximum temperature in May of the current year, while a positive correlation with precipitation in this month. In addition, the average temperature and minimum temperature in March of the current year are also restricted to tree growth. Mongolian pine is one of the excellent tree species suitable for desertification control and afforestation in the Mu Us sandy land. Under the background of the changing climate, becoming warmer and drier, the effect of drought stress on the radial growth of Mongolian pine will become more and more prominent. If the temperature continues to increase in the future, the radial growth and carbon sequestration of Mongolian pine in Mu Us sandy land will be severely affected.

Responses of Picea meyeri to Climatic Factors Revealed by Tree Ring Isotopes and Water Use Efficiency on Luya Mountain of North-Central China

Along with tree ring width, carbon isotopes are also good proxies for climate change. Water use efficiency (WUE) can be calculated more quickly and accurately based on carbon isotopes. In this study, according to the principle of dendroclimatology, the sequence of δ13C and WUE of tree rings of Picea meyeri are built. Pearson correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis are used to explore the response of carbon stable isotopes of Picea meyeri to climate change, which revealed the relationship between δ13C of Picea meyeri and climatic factors. Based on δ13C, we calculated the WUE of Picea meyeri and analyzed its response to climate change. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The δ13C of Picea meyeri decreases year-by-year from 1957 to 2020, in the range from −23.89‰~−21.67‰, and the average value is −22.67‰. The water use efficiency of Picea meyeri increases in the range from 17.26~61.31, with an average of 39.45. (2) The δ13C of Picea meyeri is negatively correlated with temperature, which has the highest correlation with the temperature of the growing season (c5–c9), and its coefficient is higher than that of the mean temperature of each month. (3) There is a significant positive correlation between WUE sequence and temperature. Meanwhile, due to the effect of precipitation and temperature, the Picea meyeri is subject to drought stress to some extent. Above all, temperature is the main climatic factor affecting the δ13C and WUE of Picea meyeri on Luya mountain.

Geographical variation in cool and warm season responses of earlywood and latewood tree‐ring chronologies in Athrotaxis selaginoides

ABSTRACTOur understanding of land‐based cool season temperature variability over the past millennium is limited by the relative lack of annually resolved temperature proxies, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we develop the first earlywood (EW) and latewood (LW) width chronologies from Australia based on the Tasmanian endemic conifer Athrotaxis selaginoides in the far southeast of Australia. We also develop total ring width (RW), EW and LW chronologies from a new site in the far south. We compare the climate responses of RW, EW and adjusted LW chronologies of three A. selagnoides sites near the southern extent of the species with three sites of the species near the northern extent of the species. RW and EW at the southern sites are strongly and positively related to cool season temperature (July–October), but in the north, RW and EW are more strongly and positively related with summer (December–February) temperatures. Once adjusted for the influence of the same growing season EW, LW in the north is very strongly negatively correlated with January–February temperatures across southeastern Australia. The new southern RW and EW chronologies can be used to extend one of only two annually resolved regional cool season temperature reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere back a further 180 years.

Effects of radial growth rate on juvenile wood properties of Pinus sylvestris planted in Mongolia

The establishment of forest plantations in boreal zones in Mongolia is important for wood production as well as carbon dioxide fixation. The present study aims to elucidate the juvenile wood properties (basic density, modulus of elasticity [MOE], modulus of rupture [MOR], and compressive strength parallel to grain) of plantation-grown Pinus sylvestris to promote the establishment of plantations. In addition, the effect of the radial growth rate on wood properties was also evaluated using a linear mixed-effects model. In the juvenile wood phase, wood properties were increased from the pith to bark side based on the results of model selections. Up to the 20th annual ring from the pith, the estimated mean values of basic density, MOE, MOR, and compressive strength were 0.40 g/cm3, 5.35 GPa, 65.1 MPa, and 28.4 MPa, respectively. Variance component ratios of growth categories were low in wood properties, with the exception of basic density, suggesting that the radial growth rate did not affect wood properties in the juvenile wood phase in this species growing in Mongolia. Based on the results obtained in the present study, we have concluded that although basic density in the faster growth category yielded relatively lower values, appropriate radial growth promotion during the initial stage of growth in P. sylvestris trees planted in Mongolia exerted no negative impact on juvenile wood properties. Keywords: annual ring width, basic density, compressive strength, modulus of elasticity, modulus of rupture

Radial growth in mangrove Xylocarpus granatum J. Koenig is driven by salinity in the Sundarbans, Bangladesh

Albeit the Sundarbans provides protection and livelihood supports to ∼ 7.5 million climate vulnerable coastal people in Bangladesh and India, this sentinel mangrove ecosystem has been threatened by anthropogenic disturbances and rapid environmental changes including sea level rise (SLR). In this context, long-term tree growth data are increasingly essential to understand the effects of environmental changes on mangroves and also to formulate their management plans. In this study, we evaluate the nature and periodicity of growth rings in Xylocarpus granatum, an ecologically important mangrove tree species growing in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. In addition, we analyze the influences of climatic variables (i.e., precipitation and temperature) and river discharge on its radial growth. The results reveal that X. granatum forms distinct growth rings which are marked by a layer of parenchyma band consisting of 1–4 cells. The visual crossdating and the quality of chronology statistics indicate that the growth rings are crossdatable. A site-specific chronology was developed spanning from 1973 to 2020 based on the crossdated samples. The annual nature of X. granatum’s growth rings offer an opportunity to estimate tree age and growth rate. The ring width is influenced by salinity which is regulated mainly by freshwater influx through annual precipitation along with river discharge, particularly in July. This study suggests that growth rings could be used as a proxy in exploring X. granatum’s growth dynamics, especially in relation to environmental changes.

Age matters: Older Alnus viridis ssp. fruticosa are more sensitive to summer temperatures in the Alaskan Arctic

Abstract The Arctic is rapidly warming, and tundra vegetation community composition is changing from small, prostrate shrubs to taller, erect shrubs in some locations. Across much of the Arctic, the sensitivity of shrub secondary growth, as measured by growth ring width, to climate has changed with increased warming, but it is not fully understood how shrub age contributes to shifts in climate sensitivity. We studied Siberian alder, Alnus viridis ssp. fruticosa, a large nitrogen‐fixing shrub that has responded to climate warming with northward range expansion over the last 50 years. We used serial sectioning of 26 individual shrubs and 94 cross‐sections to generate a 98‐year growth ring chronology, including one 142‐year‐old, Siberian alder in Northern Alaska. We tested how secondary growth sensitivity to climate has changed over the past century (1920–2017) and how shrub age affects climate sensitivity of alder growth through time. We found that over time, alder growth as expressed by the stand chronology became more sensitive to July mean monthly air temperature. Older shrubs displayed higher sensitivity to June and July temperature than younger alders. However, during the first 30 years of growth of any shrub, temperature sensitivity did not differ among individuals. In addition, the June temperature sensitivity of growth series from individual cross‐sections depended on the age of the attached shrub. Our results suggest that age contributes to climate sensitivity, likely through modifying internal shrub carbon budgets by changing size and reducing alder's dependence on N‐fixation over time. Older, more sensitive alder may enhance C and N‐cycling while having greater recruitment potential. Linking alder age to climate sensitivity, recruitment and total N‐inputs will enable us to better predict ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycling in a warmer Arctic. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Electronically Controlled Frequency Agile Beam Scanning Reflectarray Antenna with Integrated Control Unit

This paper reports the design, development, fabrication, and testing of a 225-element reconfigurable reflectarray (RRA) antenna with frequency agility and beam steering capabilities. The 15 15 (18.75 cm) RRA operating in the Ku band downlink frequency range (11.8 -12.2 GHz) of fixed satellite services (FSS) produces dual resonances switched between uplink frequency range (15-18 GHz) of FSS and earth exploration satellite range of 9.5-9.8 GHz (X Band). To attain reconfigurable multiple resonances, the unit cell is designed with a Malta cross of varying slot lengths interconnected to a square ring via a PIN diode. In the OFF state of the PIN diode connected between the concentric elements, a phase variation of 360° is obtained at 12 GHz and 9.5 GHz by varying the size of the Malta cross. By increasing the width of the outer ring in the ON state of the PIN diode, a dual resonance is obtained at 12 GHz and 17 GHz with 360° phase agility. The beam scanning is attempted at X band frequency by controlling the capacitance offered by the varactor diode connected between an inductive element and Malta cross. The proposed RRA offers 22.16 dBi, 24.5 dBi and 18.43 dBi simulated gain at 17 GHz, 12 GHz, and 9.5 GHz respectively. The simulated sidelobe levels (SLLs) and cross-polarization levels are -14.7 dB and less than -32 dB respectively. The proposed compound reconfigurable reflectarray befits fixed and mobile satellites, earth exploration satellites, radiolocation, aeronautical radio navigation, and deep space research.

Long-Term Climate Sensitivity of Resin-Tapped and Non-Resin-Tapped Scots Pine Trees Based on Tree Ring Width and Blue Intensity

The resin tapping of pine trees in Poland ended in the early 1990s. However, we can still find individual trees, and sometimes larger groups of trees, that were tapped. This study focused on the effect of the mechanical wounding of trees during resin tapping on the growth and climatic sensitivity of pine trees. The study concerned a 160-year-old pine stand in northwestern Poland in which resin tapping was last performed in the 1970s. All the trees had remained standing because of their high quality, which had destined them for seed collection. The stand included both resin-tapped (RT) and non-RT (NRT) trees. Our study was based on a dendrochronological analysis of two signals—annual tree ring widths (TRWs) and their delta blue intensity (DBI). We observed a significant increase in annual TRW after resin tapping had ceased, alongside a decrease in the DBI. The temporal stability in growth response was examined using daily climatic correlations from 1921 to 2021. It was found that the climatic sensitivity of RT and NRT pines was similar. There were differences in only some of the years, most while resin tapping was occurring, and then approximately 20 years after the resin tapping had ceased. However, these were small differences that mainly related to the strength of the correlation. It was also discovered that we can obtain different types of information from the study of TRWs and DBI.

Analysis of coniferous tree growth gradients in relation to regional pollution and climate change in the Miyun Reservoir Basin, China

Forests play a crucial role in regulating regional climate and mitigating local air pollution, but little is known about their responding to such changes. This study aimed to examine the potential responses of Pinus tabuliformis, the major coniferous tree species in the Miyun Reservoir Basin (MRB), along an air pollution gradient in Beijing. Tree rings were collected along a transect, and ring width (basal area increment, BAI) and chemical characteristics were determined and related to long-term climatic and environmental records. The results showed that Pinus tabuliformis showed an overall increase in intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) at all sites, but the relationships between iWUE and BAI differed among the sites. The contribution of atmospheric CO2 concentration (ca) to tree growth was significant at the remote sites (> 90%). The study found that air pollution at these sites might have caused further stomatal closure, as evidenced by the higher δ13C levels (0.5 to 1‰ higher) during heavy pollution periods. The analysis of tree ring δ15N also revealed the potential of using δ15N to fingerprint major nitrogen (N) deposition, as shown in the increasing tree ring δ15N, and major nitrogen losses due to denitrification and leaching, as shown in the higher δ15N in tree rings during heavy rainfall events. Overall, the gradient analysis indicated the contributions of increasing ca, increasing water deficit and elevated air pollution to tree growth and forest development. The different BAI trajectories suggested that Pinus tabuliformis has the ability to adapt to the harsh environment in the MRB.

TLidar-based crown shape indicates tree ring pattern in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst) trees across competition gradients. A modeling and methodological approach

Tree crowns and growth rings are physiologically and functionally connected through supporting and resource sharing. Management interventions may strongly influence tree growth by altering this linkage. However, conventional approaches have limited ability to characterize crown shape precisely, thus hindering our understanding of the relationship between crown shape and tree ring patterns. We, thus, aimed to test three hypotheses: (HI) Crown shape (regularity vs. irregularity) and ring patterns (regularity or irregularity) are significantly correlated and (HII) vary across density gradients; if so, (HIII) internal ring patterns could be predicted from external crown shape metrics. We, therefore, employed terrestrial laser scan-based crown shape and coring-based tree ring width metrics for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) trees covering a range of density gradients to assess temporal changes of crown shape and tree ring patterns. We found a significant and positive influence of crown shape quantifying metrics on ring patterns, indicating crown regularity or irregularity strongly reflects tree ring regularity or irregularity (p < 0.05). Crown shape and ring patterns always showed comparable patterns across density gradients (e.g., trees from lower-density stands produced transgressive crown and ring growth) and significantly varied across competition level. Trees grown in lower-density stands are more likely to produce upper-reaching crowns (maximum crown radius expansion shifted to the mid- to upper-crown) than trees grown in competitive conditions, which result in lower-reaching crowns (maximum crown radius shifted to the crown base) with reduced crown shape and ring pattern parameters. Crown irregularities increased as density decreased through competition reduction, resulting in more regular ring patterns (stable growth). Since both crown shape and ring patterns are simultaneously impacted by stand density or competition, the relationship between crown shape and ring patterns is competition-neutral. When viewed separately, both patterns had a strong relationship with the competition index. Finally, our comparative model predictions showed that approaches ranging from simple linear models to complex machine learning techniques (e.g., random forest, neural network, support vector machine, etc.) were effective in predicting ring patterns using external TLidar-crown shape, indicating a potential method to evaluate the crown shape and ring pattern link. The relationship between the crown and growth ring and their synchronous patterns across competition gradients suggests that internal growth can be assessed from the external appearances of trees and recommends further consideration in forest modeling.

Forest growth responds more to air pollution than soil acidification.

The forests of central Europe have undergone remarkable transitions in the past 40 years as air quality has improved dramatically. Retrospective analysis of Norway spruce (Picea abies) tree rings in the Czech Republic shows that air pollution (e.g. SO2 concentrations, high acidic deposition to the forest canopy) plays a dominant role in driving forest health. Extensive soil acidification occurred in the highly polluted "Black Triangle" in Central Europe, and upper mineral soils are still acidified. In contrast, acidic atmospheric deposition declined by 80% and atmospheric SO2 concentration by 90% between the late 1980s and 2010s. In this study we oserved that annual tree ring width (TRW) declined in the 1970s and subsequently recovered in the 1990s, tracking SO2 concentrations closely. Furthermore, recovery of TRW was similar in unlimed and limed stands. Despite large increases in soil base saturation, as well as soil pH, as a result of repeated liming starting in 1981, TRW growth was similar in limed and unlimed plots. TRW recovery was interrupted in 1996 when highly acidic rime (originating from more pronounced decline of alkaline dust than SO2 from local power plants) injured the spruce canopy, but recovered soon to the pre-episode growth. Across the long-term site history, changes in soil chemistry (pH, base saturation, Bc/Al soil solution ratio) cannot explain observed changes in TRW at the two study sites where we tracked soil chemistry. Instead, statistically significant recovery in TRW is linked to the trajectory of annual SO2 concentrations or sulfur deposition at all three stands.

Planetesimal Formation by the Gravitational Instability of Dust Ring Structures

We investigate the gravitational instability (GI) of dust ring structures and the formation of planetesimals by their gravitational collapse. The normalized dispersion relation of a self-gravitating ring structure includes two parameters that are related to its width and line mass (the mass per unit length). We survey these parameters and calculate the growth rate and wavenumber. Additionally, we investigate the formation of planetesimals by growth of the GI of the ring that is formed by the growth of the secular GI of the protoplanetary disk. We adopt a massive, dust-rich disk as a disk model. We find the range of radii for fragmentation by the ring GI as a function of the width of the ring. The innermost radius for the ring GI is smaller for a smaller ring width. We also determine the range of the initial planetesimal mass resulting from the fragmentation of the ring GI. Our results indicate that the planetesimal mass can be as large as 1028 g at its birth after the fragmentation. It can be as low as about 1025 g if the ring width is 0.1% of the ring radius, and the lower limit increases with the ring width. Furthermore, we obtain approximate formulae for the upper and lower limits of the planetesimal mass. We predict that the planetesimals formed by the ring GI have prograde rotations because of the Coriolis force acting on the contracting dust. This is consistent with the fact that many trans-Neptunian binaries exhibit prograde rotation.

Reed Design Method of Reed-DVA

Based on a new type of dynamic vibration absorber, this paper studies the change rules of stiffness and stress along with five parameters of its reed: thickness, cantilever width, outer ring width, outer ring fillet radius, and inner ring fillet radius, aiming at providing guidance for designers of reed-DVA.

Efficiency of early selection for growth and wood quality traits of slash pine in three progeny trials in southern China

Abstract A firm understanding of the early selection efficiency of ring width and wood quality traits is a prerequisite for breeding of higher growth rates and wood quality of slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm.). To accomplish effective early selection for the studied traits, wood core samples were collected from 360 trees of 20 open-pollinated families from three slash pine rotation-aged (harvest age) genetic trials. Wood cores were measured by SilviScan, and the annual patterning, heritability, age-age genetic correlation and efficiency of early selection for ring width, modulus of elasticity (MOE), microfibril angle (MFA) and wood density for early to reference age (age 27) were investigated. The greatest annual ring width was observed at age 4, and this trait decreased gradually toward the bark. Different radial trends were found for MOE and MFA. Wood density was lowest near the pith and then increased steadily with age. Overall, heritability was moderate to high for all area-weighted wood quality traits. Very high age-age genetic correlation values were observed for all traits researched. Estimates of efficiency for early selection indicated that the optimal age of early selection for ring width was 9–12 years, while that for area-weighted MOE, MFA and wood density was 7–8 years.

Uranus ring occultation observations: 1977–2006

The Uranian rings were discovered serendipitously on 10 March 1977 during a stellar occultation (Elliot et al., 1977a; Millis et al., 1977), and a rich set of subsequent Earth-based occultations revealed that these narrow and sharp-edged rings were eccentric and inclined, precessing under the gravitational influence of the oblate central planet. Considerable progress has been made in understanding the observed characteristics of narrow rings and sharp edges (Nicholson et al., 2018) and their associated dynamics (Longaretti, 2018), but ever since their discovery, the Uranian rings have posed dynamical puzzles that resist simple explanations. The observational basis to address these questions for the Uranus system rests largely on occultation measurements of the narrow rings spanning nearly 30 years, beginning in 1977 and concluding most recently in 2006. Nearly all of these occultation data sets are available in digital form on NASA’s Planetary Data System (PDS) Ring-Moon Systems node, but many of them have not been previously published or described in detail. This paper serves as a guide to the PDS archive and provides essential information about the observations and the methods used to determine the ring widths, mean optical depths, and occultation event times from individual occultation profiles. Additional detail is provided in the Supplementary Online Material accompanying this publication. In a companion paper (French et al., 2023b), we make use of these observations to determine the Uranus ring orbits, pole direction, and gravity field, and the orbital characteristics and masses of three small Uranian moons – Cressida, Ophelia, and Cordelia – from their forced normal modes on the rings.

Traceability and quality assessment of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H.Karst.) logs: the TreeTrace_spruce database

Key messageThe TreeTrace_spruce database contains images and measurements of 100 Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H.Karst.) logs from Northeastern France, each about 4.5 m long. The image database includes RGB images of large and small ends of the logs and hyperspectral and computed tomography (CT) images of wood discs sampled at both log ends. The 100 logs were also fully X-ray scanned with a CT device for roundwoods and their top surface was scanned with a terrestrial LiDAR device. The measurements performed on discs include wood local density, growth ring widths and pith location. This database is complementary to another one (TreeTrace_Douglas) resulting from the same ANR project TreeTrace, but if the objectives are similar, the protocols and conditions of acquisition are not the same for these two databases. TreeTrace_spruce dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.57745/WKLTJI and associated metadata are available at https://metadata-afs.nancy.inra.fr/geonetwork/srv/fre/catalog.search#/metadata/cffee2f1-18e1-4b53-9f5b-6cc4c66f1cb8.

Combined tree-ring width and wood anatomy chronologies provide insights into the radial growth and hydraulic strategies in response to an extreme drought in plantation-grown Mongolian pine trees

Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. Mongolica) is among the most commonly used coniferous afforestation tree species for building shelter forests in vast areas of northern China, yet it is at a high risk of mortality in the context of increased frequency of extreme drought events associated with anticipative climate change. Understanding the long-term ecophysiological response to climate extremes is of great relevance for taking appropriate practices for the sustainability-oriented management of Mongolian pine plantations in drought-prone environments. Here, the hydraulic strategy behind the response of the radial growth of Mongolian pine trees planted in a water-limited area of northern China to the extreme drought event from 2001 to 2004 was retrospectively investigated by combining standard dendrochronological methods and quantitative wood anatomy. We found that water-related climatic variables acted as the main factors regulating the radial growth and xylem tracheid size of the Mongolian pine trees at the study site, and the extreme drought significantly reduced xylem theoretical hydraulic conductivity and almost stagnated the trunk radial increment. Immediately after this climatic extreme, the stem growth sharply increased to a level substantially higher than that preceding the extreme drought, which was probably attributable to the reduction of inter-tree competitions for resources due to the mortality of a large number of trees caused by the extreme drought event. Around the extreme drought event, tree ring width was significantly proportional to the number of earlywood tracheid cell layers but was uncorrelated with tracheid size metrics, alongside a clear hydraulic safety-efficiency trade-off among the stem xylem traits obtained from tree ring series. This study stresses the role that xylem hydraulics play in modulating the radial growth of plantation-grown Mongolian pine trees during extreme droughts by adjusting xylem structural characteristics and hence hydraulic transport functions.

Climate variability of the southern Amazon inferred by a multi-proxy tree-ring approach using Cedrela fissilis Vell.

The analysis of climate variability and development of reconstructions based on tree-ring records in tropical forests have been increasing in recent decades. In the Amazon region, ring width and stable isotope long-term chronologies have been used for climatic studies, however little is known about the potential of wood traits such as density and chemical concentrations. In this study, we used well-dated rings of Cedrela fissilis Vell. from the drought-prone southern Amazon basin to assess the potential of using inter-annual variations of annually-resolved ring width, wood density, stable oxygen isotope (δ18OTR) measured in tree-ring cellulose and concentration of Sulfur (STR) and Calcium (CaTR) in xylem cells to study climate variability. During wet years, Cedrela fissilis produced wider and denser rings with higher CaTR and lower STR, as well as depleted δ18OTR values. During dry years, a wider range of responses was observed in growth, density and STR, while lower CaTR and enriched δ18OTR values were found. The annual centennial chronologies spanning from 1835 to 2018 showed good calibration skills for reconstructing local precipitation, evapotranspiration (P-PET), Amazon-wide rainfall, as well as climate modes related to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies such as El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA), and the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) oscillations. CaTR explained 42 % of the variance of local precipitation (1975–2018), RW explained 30 % of the P-PET variance (1975–2018), while δ18OTR explained 60 % and 57 % of the variance of Amazon rainfall (1960–2018) and El Niño 3.4 (1920–2018), respectively. Our results show that a multi-proxy tropical tree-ring approach can be used for high-reliable reconstructions of climate variability over Amazon basin at inter-annual and multidecadal time scales.

Severe multi-year drought coincident with Hittite collapse around 1198–1196 bc

The potential of climate change to substantially alter human history is a pressing concern, but the specific effects of different types of climate change remain unknown. This question can be addressed using palaeoclimatic and archaeological data. For instance, a 300-year, low-frequency shift to drier, cooler climate conditions around 1200 bc is frequently associated with the collapse of several ancient civilizations in the Eastern Mediterranean and Near East1–4. However, the precise details of synchronized climate and human-history-scale associations are lacking. The archaeological–historical record contains multiple instances of human societies successfully adapting to low-frequency climate change5–7. It is likely that consecutive multi-year occurrences of rare, unexpected extreme climatic events may push a population beyond adaptation and centuries-old resilience practices5,7–10. Here we examine the collapse of the Hittite Empire around 1200 bc. The Hittites were one of the great powers in the ancient world across five centuries11–14, with an empire centred in a semi-arid region in Anatolia with political and socioeconomic interconnections throughout the ancient Near East and Eastern Mediterranean, which for a long time proved resilient despite facing regular and intersecting sociopolitical, economic and environmental challenges. Examination of ring width and stable isotope records obtained from contemporary juniper trees in central Anatolia provides a high-resolution dryness record. This analysis identifies an unusually severe continuous dry period from around 1198 to 1196 (±3) bc, potentially indicating a tipping point, and signals the type of episode that can overwhelm contemporary risk-buffering practices.

The Use of Basal Area Increment to Preserve the Multi-Decadal Climatic Signal in Shrub Growth Ring Chronologies: A Case Study of Betula glandulosa in a Rapidly Warming Environment

Climate warming at high latitudes has contributed to the growing interest in shrub tree-ring analysis. Shrub architecture presents new challenges for dendrochronology, such as the seemingly lower and inconsistent climatic sensitivity of stems vs. root collars. Shrub stems may thus be considered as sub-optimal to study climate–growth relationships. In this paper, we propose that the lower climatic sensitivity of stems could be caused by the use of unsuitable detrending methods for chronologies spanning decades rather than centuries. We hypothesize that the conversion of the ring width (RW) to basal area increment (BAI) is better suited than traditional detrending methods to removing age/size-related trends without removing multi-decadal climate signals. Using stem and root collar samples collected from three sites in the forest–tundra ecotone of eastern Canada, we compared the climate–growth relationships of these two approaches for stems and root collars using mixed-effects models. The climate sensitivity was, on average, 4.9 and 2.7 times higher with BAI than with detrended (mean-centered) RW chronologies for stems and root collars, respectively. The climatic drivers of radial growth were identical for stems and root collars when using BAI (July temperature and March precipitation), but were inconsistent when using detrended RW series (root collars: July temperature and March precipitation at all sites; stems: April and June temperature, depending on the site). Although the use of BAI showed promising results for studying long-term climate signals in shrub growth chronologies, further studies focusing on different species and locations are needed before the use of BAI can become broadly used in shrub dendrochronology.