Rice Sector Research Articles

Market intelligence for guiding crop improvement: A systematic review of stakeholder preference studies in the rice sector in the Global South and beyond.

Improvement of crop varieties can be a powerful strategy for addressing food, nutrition, and climate challenges in the Global South if it is guided by market intelligence. We conducted a systematic literature review of stakeholder preference studies that aim at guiding crop improvement in rice, the Global South's most important staple food. We review behavioral indicators such as purchase intention, willingness to pay, acceptance, probability of adoption, and preference. Results from 106 studies reveal important gaps in terms of geographical and stakeholder representation: (1) Southcentral Asia is underrepresented and (2) studies focused either on upstream (farmers) or downstream (consumers) stakeholders along the value chain, while missing out on midstream actors (processors, traders). From the consumer studies, urban consumption zones are adequately represented as sources of end-market opportunities for farmers to tap into demand. Evidence suggests that consumer preferences for intrinsic attributes revolve around eating and cooking quality attributes (i.e., aroma, texture, swelling capacity, taste) and physical traits (i.e., whiteness, size and shape, proportion of broken grains). Evidence from farmer studies reveals that (1) preferences for agronomic attributes dominate and focus on yield, maturity, plant height, lodging tolerance, and tillering ability; (2) yield and early maturity were generally considered priority attributes and were often jointly considered as such; and (3) preferences for abiotic stress tolerance revolve around drought, submergence, and salinity. These insights can help refocus market intelligence research to aid crop improvement in addressing food, nutrition, and climate challenges in the Global South, which may be expanded globally.

Nepalese Fine and Aromatic Rice Landraces: A Review

With the recent issue of Geographical Indication (GI) tag claim by India on Basmati rice, Nepalese rice sector got an urgent call to conserve and promote fine and aromatic rice landraces. Fine, medium, coarse landraces were further classified into aromatic and non-aromatic. Some of the aromatic landraces popularized by their local dialect names as Basmati anadi, Basmati anpjhutte, Choti basmati, etc. were cultivated in diverse environment by local farmers but utilization in national rice improvement program is insufficient. Just handful of landraces were used as parental lines to develop improved varieties viz. Jarneli in Khumal-2, Pokhreli masino in Khumal 4, Khumal -5 and Palung 2, pureline of Jethobudho as Pokhreli jethobudho, pureline of Lalkabasmati as Lalkabasmati. With the prevailing trend of fast-track registration of the exotic improved lines, our grassroots level efforts to study the genetic makeup and unique attributes of our landraces are overshadowed. However, Jarneli, Kalo marshi, Kalo nuniya, Mansara, etc. were found to be popular for traits nutritious, medicinal, abiotic stress tolerance and resilience to low fertility soil. Furthermore, the modern tools of molecular characterization are yet to be utilized prominently to identify such valuable genes and understand their phylogenetic diversity rewarding for future rice breeding program.

La filière riz dans la plaine de la Ruzizi à l’est de la RDC. Organisation et transmission de l’information

La filière riz dans la plaine de la Ruzizi à l’est de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC) occupe une place importante au regard des habitudes alimentaires des populations de la région et des revenus des paysans. Cet article est issu d’une enquête auprès d’acteurs de la filière et illustre (i) l’organisation de la filière, en précisant le rôle des intermédiaires commerciaux ; (ii) les caractéristiques transactionnelles (modes de coordination) ; et (iii) les facteurs de mise à profit par les producteurs, des informations sur le prix et sur la qualité. Les transactions dans cette filière s’organisent autour de trois circuits, avec toutefois une large domination du circuit de la brasserie Bralima qui capte près de 80% de la production rizicole locale. C’est un débouché sûr pour les producteurs, mais son poids laisse peu de place au développement de la filière de riz de table qui souffre de la concurrence du riz importé.

Gene-editing technologies for developing climate resilient rice crops in sub-Saharan Africa: Political priorities and space for responsible innovation

Over the last 2 decades, rice has become one of the most important staple crops for sub-Saharan Africa. Estimates show that average consumption of rice has tripled over the last 3 decades, from 9.2 million metric tons (Mt) in the early 1990s to 31.5 million Mt in 2018, with West and Central Africa accounting for nearly two-thirds of this share. The demand for rice, however, has placed an enormous economic burden on African countries, whereby they spent over USD 5.5 billion per year on rice imports over the past few years. To address this challenge, over 32 countries have established National Rice Development Strategies to increase local production and to achieve rice self-sufficiency. Several of these countries have shown policy interest to use modern biotechnological advancements, including gene editing, to ensure increases in rice productivity and reduce food imports, in the context of extreme climate vulnerability and acceleration of the effects of biotic and abiotic stresses. This review article examines the role of biotechnology in African countries’ efforts to achieve rice self-sufficiency, particularly the potential for genome-editing technologies toward the genetic improvement of rice and to Africa’s nascent research programs. This article notes that while gene editing offers important advances in crop breeding, like genetic engineering, it faces some persistent sociopolitical challenges and low societal acceptability. As such, international partnerships advancing genome editing in Africa’s rice-subsectors development could benefit from adopting key principles from “responsible research and innovation” to help these projects achieve their potential, while bringing about more inclusive and reflexive processes that strive to anticipate the benefits and limits associated with new biotechnologies as they relate to local contexts. Such an approach could create the necessary political space to test and assess the benefits (and risks) related to adopting gene-editing technologies in Africa’s rice sectors.

Exploring the Relation between Farmer Group Membership and Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from Indonesian Rice Farming

Farmer groups have been critical in pursuing agricultural development, particularly in developing countries. Indonesia’s government has promoted the development of farmer groups in recent years, mainly in the rice sector, as a strategic agricultural commodity. This paper explored the relations between farmer group membership, farming practices, and productivity in the Indonesian rice sector. Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and regression analysis were employed to examine the 2014 National Agricultural Survey data. The empirical findings confirmed the positive relations between farmer group membership and productivity in the Indonesian rice sector. Furthermore, farmers’ characteristics covering age, gender, education level, and farming practices, such as land status and access to irrigation, all played a role in determining the extent to which farmers participated in farmer groups.

Comparing Technical and Allocative Efficiency between Family Farms and Agricultural Corporations: Evidence From Japan’s Rice Sector

Comparing Technical and Allocative Efficiency between Family Farms and Agricultural Corporations: Evidence From Japan’s Rice Sector

A MEASURE OF QUALITY AND IDENTIFY THE BREED OF RICE GRAIN

Rice is the most consuming food all over the world and the market for rice is always high. In rice manufacturing industries the market demand is always centred on quality of rice. The analysis of grain type, grading, and quality criteria are still determined by skilled persons manually. Because it depends on a number of variables, including human factors, working conditions, cleaning and salvage recovery rates, this process is complex. Deep learning and image processing methods may be used to overcome this. In the food business, quality testing is becoming more significant for grading and classifying grains. In deep learning-based testing, we take into account both physical (grain form and size) and chemical (amylose content, gel consistency) features. The quality and grading of rice grains were examined using this proposed algorithm's average values for the features that were taken out of the network Since grain quality directly affects human health, it is very important for people. Thus, it is crucial to evaluate grain quality and spot low-quality components. The mix of physical and chemical properties makes up rice quality. Two physical traits are grain size and shape. Using canny edge detection, the derived physical characteristics are used to classify the rice grains. This essay offers a solution to the issue of quality analysis in the rice sector. Compared to conventional human-based inspection methods, computer vision-based inspection offers an option that is quick, accurate, convenient, and safe. This article offers a technique for determining the rice grain's quality and categorising it according to various breed types. In this we are going to use three types of rice grains: - 1. Basmati Rice 2. Sonamasoori Rice 3. jhilli Rice Key words: Image processing, CNN, Rice Grading.

The role of female farmers in improving family welfare in South Bali Sadhar Village Banjit District Way Kanan Regency, Lampung

This study aims at contructingthe role of female farmers in improving family welfare. The research was carried out in March 2022-April 2022 in South Bali Sadhar Village, Banjit District, Way Kanan Regency. Lampung. Indonesia. The informants in this study were female farmers and male farmers who worked in the lowland rice sector with a total of 12 people, consisted of 6 women and 6 men. The approach used in this study is a qualitative approach with case studies method. Data analysis used in this study is reduce data, data colection, data presentation and conclusions drawing. The results of this study indicate that the role of female farmers in the village of South Bali Sadharin improving family welfare is divided into three parts are reproductive role, productive role and social role. The reproductive role as housewives, the productive role as lowland rice farmers and as farm laborers. These activities include preparation of production facilities, seeding, planting, maintenance, harvesting and post-harvest. The social role is as a member of the community in both general and religious activities. The involvement of women in these three types of roles can help improve family welfare, for example women helping their husbands earn a living as lowland rice farmers so that family needs can be gradually met

Technical efficiency and its determinants in rice production: The case of small-scale rice growers in the Ejisu Juaben Municipality of Ghana

This study assessed the technical efficiency of smallholder rice growers in the Ejisu Juaben Municipality of Ghana and explained variations using the Stochastic Frontier Approach. Cross-sectional data were collected from 200 rice farmers using a structured questionnaire. The results showed that inefficiency exists as the mean technical efficiency was 55% implying that nearly half (45%) more output could be produced using the existing input levels if farmers were technically efficient. A scope, therefore, exists for increasing rice production. A wide range (11.7% to 98.4%) of technical production efficiency exists among the sampled rice farmers, showing the various levels of improvements expected to bring various farmers to operate on the frontier. Labour cost was revealed as the main constraint hindering the development of the rice sector. The main factors that positively and significantly explain the level of variation in efficiency production were membership to a Farmer-Based Organization (FBO), access to improved varieties, and access to credit. Furthermore, gender, farmer experience, and contact with extension services negatively influence the efficiency performance of farmers. Encouraging farmers to form FBOs is recommended, as this will make credit more available to farmers and improve access to community-based extension services.

Performance and macro-economic scenarios of rice market outlook in India

The study looks into past trends and volatility in the demand and supply components of the last 50 years (1970 to 2019) besides assessing the reliability of macro-economic scenarios of rice by 2020 to 2030 published by OECD and NITI Aayog. The study infers the growth in the area under rice cultivation is 0.30 per cent per annum but yield growth is 1.79 per cent per annum. Yield growth rather than area growth would drive future increases in rice production. Scanning of scenarios of reduced rice land revealed that India would need to boost its rice yield by a maximum of one tonne per hectare to maintain future output levels. The reliability of the projection of rice by OECD and NITI Aayog is very high since the mean absolute percentage error of demand is below 2 per cent and of supply is below 16 per cent. Discussion on future outlook suggests that India needs to either boost up its agri-infrastructure or free up some of its rice area in favour of resource conservation and crop diversification. The outlook for rice throws light on upcoming possibilities and challenges and suggests recommendations for alternative policy options to address the dynamics in the rice sector.

Adoption of Smart Farming Technology Among Rice Farmers

Application of smart farming technology in rice farming activity is relevant in facing the challenges in achieving food security and improving the wellbeing of farmers. In Malaysia, food security is synonymous with the adequacy of rice domestic supply for the Malaysian population. Therefore, to achieve the target set in Sustainable Development Goal 2 which is to achieve zero hunger, the rice sector needs to be more competitive by encouraging farmers to utilize modern technology. Smart farming is an emerging concept of farm management that combines information and communication technologies into modern machinery like IoT, drones, and Artificial Intelligence to increase the value of agricultural products as well as reduce the cost of production while improving the well-being of farmers through income increment. Therefore, this study is conducted to explore the adoption of smart farming among paddy farmers in one of the country’s granary areas which is in Barat Laut Selangor under the administration of the Integrated Agriculture Development Area. This study will employ qualitative methods and interviews will be conducted. This study is urgently needed due to the twofold agenda: Malaysia is moving towards a high-income country and the importance for food security assurance has been acknowledged.

Rice Production Chain: Environmental and Social Impact Assessment—A Review

Rice is the most widely used cereal for human consumption, attributing its production as one of the most important activities for the global population. Therefore, given its economic and nutritional value, assessing the sustainability of this production process could be worth noting. In this regard, this research aims to investigate the most recent literature related to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of rice primary production, to clarify the extent to which Life Cycle Thinking (LCT) and thus the three pillars of sustainability have been applied in the rice sector, as well as to highlight possible research gaps. Thus, 40 articles (2012–2022) were analyzed. The main research gaps that were found were, firstly, that there was a lesser tendency to consider multiple functional units, highlighting how little multifunctionality is considered. As to be expected, there was also a great difference in methodological choices, which often leads to a great variability of results, making evaluations and comparisons of impacts uncertain. These were also highly dependent on soil and climate conditions in the various countries, which could in turn affect input utilization, and results. The study of the impacts of primary rice production was then addressed by a few countries, among which some of the largest producers were absent, while the least considered aspects were related to the depletion of abiotic resources and the promotion of organic farming. Finally, sustainability assessments in rice production had little focus on the socio-economic dimension, showing how little LCT is considered. Therefore, based on this consideration, a Social Life Cycle Assessment was integrated into the study, the results of which show that the countries with medium to high social impacts could be India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Bangladesh.

Local resource mobilization for malaria vector control among Rwandan rice farmers: a pilot study into the role of community ownership

BackgroundEvidence suggests a vicious cycle between rice cultivation and malaria control in Rwanda. Rice fields offer an attractive breeding ground for malaria vectors, which increases the disease burden in rice farming communities, and, consequently, reduces productivity in the rice sector. Community-based larval source management in rice fields is propagated as a sustainable solution to break this cycle. A sense of agency and ownership of malaria control interventions, as well as the mobilization of resources at the local level, are often considered preconditions for success. However, an evidence gap exists regarding the interaction between the agentive and financial dimension of local sustainability.MethodsWe conduct a larviciding pilot involving three groups; one group where rice farmers sprayed their fields under expert supervision, one group where rice farmers organised the larviciding campaign themselves, and a (non-sprayed) control group. We test whether the difference in agency between the intervention groups affects farmers’ willingness-to-pay for a larviciding campaign. Willingness-to-pay is elicited in a contingent valuation exercise, more specifically a bidding game, and is assessed both before and after the pilot (n = 288). Difference-in-difference estimates are computed, using a propensity score matching technique. Supplementary data were collected in a survey and two focus group discussions for triangulation.ResultsThe high-agency (self-organised) group significantly outperforms the low-agency (expert-supervised) group in terms of maintaining its willingness to contribute financially. However, higher willingness-to-pay in the high-agency group does not appear to be driven by a stronger sense of ownership per se. The supplementary data indicate high levels of ownership in both treatment groups compared to the control group. A tentative explanation lies in diverging perceptions concerning the effectiveness of the pilot.ConclusionsThe study supports the idea that community-led organization of larval source management can prove instrumental in mobilizing finance for malaria control in low-income settings where rice production interferes with the fight against malaria. However, the causality is complex. Feelings of ownership do not appear the main driver of willingness-to-pay, at least not directly, which opens up the possibility of initiating community-driven malaria control interventions that promote the agentive and financial dimension of local sustainability simultaneously.

First report of Burkholderia gladioli causing bacterial panicle blight of rice in Malaysia.

Rice (Oryza sativa) is a staple food for most of the world's populations, particularly in Asia (Gumma et al. 2011). The rice sector provides Malaysians with a food supply, food sufficiency, and income for growers (Man et al. 2009). From January to February 2022, panicle samples showing symptoms of bacterial panicle blight (BPB) disease, including reddish-brown, linear lesions with indistinct margins on flag-leaf sheaths and blighted, upright, grayish straw-colored florets with sterile and aborted grains on panicles were collected in granary areas in Sekinchan, Selangor, Malaysia with 90% disease incidence in fields. Surface-sterilization of infected leaf tissue was performed using 75% ethanol and 1% sodium hypochlorite, followed by rinsing three times in sterilized water. Leaf tissue was macerated in sterilized water and aliquots were spread on King's B agar medium, then cultured for 24 h to 48 h at 35 °C. All isolated bacteria were Gram-negative rods, positive for catalase and gelatinase but negative for indole, oxidase and hydrogen sulfide (H2S), and utilized sucrose, inositol, mannitol, glucose, and citrate. Colonies were circular and smooth-margined, producing a diffusible yellowish-green pigment on King's B agar medium, which are characteristics of Burkholderia species (Keith et al. 2005). Five representative isolates (UPMBG7, UPMBG8, UPMBG9, UPMBG15, UPMBG17) were selected for molecular and pathogenicity tests. PCR using specific primers targeting the gyrB gene for molecular characterization was performed, and the ∼470 bp amplicons were sequenced (Maeda et al. 2006) and deposited in GenBank (OM824438 to OM824442). A BLASTn analysis revealed that the five isolates were 99% identical to the B. gladioli reference strains MAFF 302533, GRBB15041, and LMG19584 in GenBank (AB190628, KX638432, and AB220898). A phylogenetic tree using Maximum-likelihood analysis of the gyrB gene sequences showed that the five isolates were 99% identical to B. gladioli reference strains (AB190628, KX638432, and AB220898). To verify the identification of these isolates, the 16S rDNA gene was amplified using 16SF/16SR primers (Ramachandran et al. 2021), producing ~1,400 bp amplicons. The resulting sequences of the five isolates (OM869953 to OM869957) were 98% identical to the reference strains of B. gladioli (NR113629 and NR117553). To confirm pathogenicity, 10 ml suspensions of the five isolates at of 108 CFU/ml were inoculated into the panicles and crowns of 75-day-old rice seedlings of local rice varieties MR269 and MR219 grown in a glasshouse with temperatures ranging from 37 °C to 41 °C (Nandakumar et al. 2009). Control rice seedlings were inoculated with sterilized water. All isolates produced BPB disease symptoms like those originally found in the rice fields at four weeks after inoculation. Control seedlings remained asymptomatic. To fulfill Koch's postulates, the bacteria were reisolated from symptomatic panicles and were confirmed as B. gladioli by sequence analysis of the gyrB and 16S rDNA genes. To our knowledge, this is the first report of B. gladioli causing BPB disease of rice in Malaysia. Since BPB disease causes a significant threat to the rice industry, it is crucial to investigate the diversity of this destructive pathogen for effective disease management strategies in Malaysia.

Cameroon’s Rice Sector Faced with Import Dependency

Rice is a staple food for the Cameroonian population and is the most consumed cereal after maize. The SNDR (National Rice Development Strategy) document shows that despite the scale of investment to absorb domestic demand for rice, Cameroonian production has only been able to satisfy domestic demand to the tune of 20%. The question is therefore to understand the constraints that prevent the development of local rice production to the level of national need. To obtain results, quantitative and qualitative data from secondary sources were used. The rice sector in Cameroon is managed by the state through the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MINADER). MINADER designs development policies and strategies and coordinates the development of activities in the field. The state implements its policies and strategies through the projects and supervisory structures under its supervision. The sector is organized from the supervisory authority to the consumer. Each actor who intervenes has very specific missions that are transformed into effective activities in the field. The tracing of the evolution of rice production in Cameroon, from the year 2000 to 2018, shows three phases of evolution. The first phase, from 2000 to 2008, can be described as a recovery phase, with a growth rate of 44.84%, at the rate of 5.6% growth per year. The second phase can be described as the take-off phase, which runs from 2008 to 2016 when production peaked. The growth rate during this period was 79.96% at a rate of 10% growth per year. After the take-off phase, there is a decline between 2016 and 2018 at a rate of −12.7%, at a rate of −6.35% per year. It can be seen that the increase in production is evolving at the same rate as the increase in cultivated areas. However, the level of rice production in Cameroon does not essentially depend on the cultivated areas. This suggests that the increase in rice production in Cameroon also depends on the level of local farm yields. The State should, therefore, in addition to the increase in cultivated areas, accentuate its actions in the direction of increasing the yields of local producers.

Achieving ambitions: roadmap to implementing nationally determined contributions for agriculture emission reduction in Vietnam

ABSTRACT The agriculture sector contributes significantly to national greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries. Rice is a major contributor to methane emissions in Asia and many countries have recognised the potential to reduce their emissions by including rice sector targets in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement. The NDC commitments are voluntary emission reduction efforts submitted by each country to curb global warming. This guide serves to bridge the gap in knowledge on developing and implementing action plans to achieve the ambitious targets to reduce emissions in rice. With a focus on Vietnam, this guide describes methods and tools for research organisations to support national governments to plan, finance, and implement mitigation actions in the rice sector.

A Foreseeable and Desirable Future for the System of Rice Intensification

After some 40 years since when Fr. Henri de Laulanié synthesized the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) methodology, and after more than two decades of experts and practitioners working intensively to disseminate SRI around the world, the time is ripe for a general reflection on what has been done, and especially on how to move forward with the upscaling of SRI methods. This short paper builds on the work carried out by SRI-2030 which, despite being a very young initiative, thanks to the support of the experienced SRI-Rice group from Cornell University, has connected with SRI experts from multiple countries and with various stakeholders of the rice sector. As the international community recognizes the importance of more sustainable and eco-friendly rice production in terms of food security, less water consumption, and adaptation to and mitigation of climate change, concerted actions should be taken to boost the uptake of SRI, an agroecological practice that tackles all these issues and also improves farmers’ livelihoods. However, the diversity within the rice sector and the various context-related barriers to its optimization require diversified strategies. The challenges facing us are global, and a coordinated, collaborative approach is needed. SRI-2030 was established to be a facilitator for the support of synergies among stakeholders in the rice sector with the aim of boosting the upscaling of SRI methods up to 50 million hectares by 2030, to slow the pace of global warming and improve people’s well-being.

A Systemic Review of System of Rice Intensification Journey and System of Crop Intensification Development in the Rice Sector of Viet Nam

Started in Viet Nam in 2003 and was piloted in small areas via the demonstration fields in four provinces in northern Viet Nam, Systematic Rice Intensification (SRI) has proven its agronomic, economic, and environmental benefits and thus has been promoted widely in Viet Nam for almost two decades to almost 50 rice production landscapes that helped to improve livelihood for more than one million of smallholder farmers; reduced water irrigation by 40%; production cost of 32% and increased yield by 13-29% as compared to the conventional practices during the period of 2010- 2015. Viet Nam has been recognized as the world’s third largest rice exporter (Department Crop Production of Vietnam, 2021), given almost 80% of agricultural land for rice cultivation (IRRI Online) and mobilization of advanced farming practices among other efforts. Overtime, key principles of SRI have been further developed and refined to be ecological-based suitable and enhance multi-dimensions efficacy. Mobilizing the combination of both literature review and primary data, this paper reviews the key milestones and results of SRI over the past two decades in VN; and makes a systematic review of the transition from SRI to System Crop Intensification (SCI) that are more relevant and pragmatic to the rice farming practices in different eco-systems and market needs in Viet Nam. A case study of the AgResults Vietnam Emissions Reduction Challenges Project (AVERP) showcases the sophisticated and innovative development of key principles of SRI to ecological and market-based SCI for sustainable and low carbon rice cultivation as well as the readiness of the roles of private sector in technology transferring and scaling those SCI to almost 48,000 smallholder rice farmers of 89 Co-ops over four (04) cropping season in Thai Binh province of Viet Nam.

The Implications of Rice Tariffication Law to the Rice Trading Industy In a Highly Urbanized City in the Philippines

Rice is an essential commodity and a staple food in the Philippines; the implementation of the Rice Tariffication Law further aims to reform the rice sector and address the rice shortage. This research study aims to determine the implications of Republic Act No. 11203 or Rice Tariffication Law to the rice trading industry in Mandaue City, particularly in the rice retail sector, and know how it affects the three aspects: supply, demand, and price of rice. This research is a qualitative study utilizing the Phenomenological Approach. The researchers used a purposive sampling technique where participants were determined based on the already set qualifications by the researchers and interviewed ten (10) participants who were the rice retailers from Mandaue City. The gathering of data was in the form of an online semi-structured interview aided by a researcher-made interview questionnaire as a primary instrument used. The researchers then utilized Colaizzi’s seven-step method for the data analysis. The findings revealed that the law provided positive and negative implications for the rice trading industry, particularly the rice retail sector. The positive implications, such as an increased rice supply and a wide variety of rice options, placed the participants at an advantage. In contrast, the negative implications revealed an intense degree of competition and low sales of local rice products. The law also affected the supply by having a lesser supply of local rice but more supply of the imported ones. In the aspect of demand, it causes an increase in the demand for imported rice, while in terms of price, it appears that imported rice is cheaper than the local rice.

Parameter uncertainty in policy planning models: Using portfolio management methods to choose optimal policies under world market volatility

Even accurate and precisely specified models with excellent underlying data quality can be inhibited by parameter uncertainty that reflects uncertain factors. This paper suggests adopting portfolio management methods from finance in policy planning models as a practical tool for explicitly reckoning the parameter uncertainty when defining optimal policy. We demonstrate the approach in an economywide model that aims to find an optimal pro-poor agricultural value chain in Senegal under the world market uncertainty. We show that prioritizing the rice sector is the most effective policy in terms of expected policy return, but this policy is also associated with the highest risk, increasing poverty under unfavorable yet realistic scenarios. However, like diversified portfolios in finance, balancing rice promotion with support for other sectors can reduce risk at the cost of reduced expected policy return. The suggested methodology allows for explicit risk-based decision-making and can be used in policy prioritization models that cannot define robust optimal policy under standard parameter sensitivity analysis tests.