Rice Price Volatility Research Articles

PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND VOLATILITY OF NATIONAL STRATEGIC FOOD COMMODITIES IN INDONESIA

Meeting the food needs of the Indonesian population is a top priority, and national strategic food plays a vital role in achieving this goal. However, the unstable nature of national strategic food prices can have significant implications, particularly for those with low incomes. This volatility can hinder access to healthy and nutritious food, ultimately impacting the nation's food security. In recent times, food prices have risen sharply, which is expected to have far-reaching consequences. Therefore, it is imperative to analyze the volatility of national strategic food prices to comprehend price fluctuations and patterns. This study analyzed the volatility of national strategic food prices in Indonesia from 2018 to 2022, focusing on commodities such as shallots, garlic, red chilies, cooking oil, and rice. The ARCH-GARCH method used to conduct the analysis, revealing that all five commodity prices were volatile at the national level. The red chili and shallot exhibits a distinctive pattern, characterized by an increase volatility during the second quarter of each year. This can be attributed to the rise in demand during the Ramadan. Conversely, garlic volatility was high in early 2019 and 2020, while remaining relatively stable during other periods. Cooking oil volatility remained stable until the end of 2020, but started to increase in early 2021. This closely related to cooking oil crisis that occurred in Indonesia. Lastly, rice price volatility was high in early 2018. Subsequently, exhibited relatively stable volatility until first quarter of 2022, although there were some periods where the volatility exceeded its average.

The Political Economy of Nigeria’s Oil Dependency and Its Implication on Economic Diversification

Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, but it suffers from resource curse or Dutch disease where she is unable to leverage on her resource endowments to diversify into many other sectors of the economy. Her industrial capacity is very low due to infrastructure shortage. But the foregoing are motivated by rent-seeking and vested political power holders who rather will support implementing import-dependent policies. Consequently, it is difficult to adopt the latest technology and liberalize the economy for inclusive participation of the citizenry. Utilizing the New Institutional Economic (NIE) perspective, secondary sources of information and content analysis, the paper ascertained that protectionist policies of protecting nascent industries have not worked for Nigeria. For instance, closing the borders to protect local rice producers rather caused rice price volatility and inflation among others. Hence recommends a radical revolutionary change in the political economy will necessitate the needed reforms. All emerging economies in Asia passed through this stage of development.

Analysis of Indonesia's Food Security Strategy: Rice Price Volatility

Rice is the primary commodity of the majority of Indonesian people, fluctuations in rice prices greatly affect the fulfillment of national food needs. This greatly affects the purchasing power of the people to meet their basic needs. Sensitivity to the price and availability of rice is not only felt at the level of ordinary people who consume rice, but also at the level of farmers who produce rice who still have the risk of food insecurity, due to the lag in the planting and production periods, as well as the risk of crop failure. This study will analyze the food security strategy in Indonesia with the support of various literature data. The purpose of this research is to map the strategies implemented in Indonesia by policy makers, businesses, farmers in maintaining and supporting food productivity. From the results of the research conducted, there are at least three levels of strategies implemented in Indonesia, namely the household level, regional level, and national level. Keywords: Food security;Indonesia;Rice;Price;Volatility

Spatial Differences in Rice Price Volatility: A Case Study of Pakistan 1994–2011

Prices of agricultural commodities tend to be more volatile in comparison to other commodities. Volatility can result in inefficient allocation of the resources by the farmers, traders and consumers. Rice is the second major staple and export item of Pakistan. This study presents the trends in volatility of regional rice markets of Pakistan and analyses spatial differences in volatility across regional rice markets in Pakistan from 1994 to 2011, and also draws comparison of volatility with the international market. ARCH-LM tests are applied to check the presence of volatility and volatility clustering is found in all the markets. Tests for equality of variance and dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) GARCH model are employed to analyse the spatial differences across the regional rice markets of Pakistan. The results indicate the presence of spatial differences in volatility. Positive conditional correlations in the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) GARCH model are found which indicate positive association of volatility across markets. Spatial differences in volatility and its persistence reflect the differences in market forces, infrastructure and information flow which leads to varying degree of risk across markets and some regions are exposed to higher risk. The study found out that Hyderabad and Sukkur are the most volatile markets and their volatility levels are highly persistent and require highest time to return to its long-term mean which makes them the riskiest rice markets. Investments in infrastructure, particularly in transportation and controlling the market power of middlemen may reduce price risk across markets particularly in the most risky markets. JEL Classification: C22, C32, Q11, Q13, Q18 Keywords: Rice Prices Volatility, Regional Markets, Pakistan. DCC-GARCH-models

Rice price volatility and transmission: implications for food security in Ghana

This paper examines price volatility and transmission of rice markets in Ghana and draws implications for food security. Using monthly rice price data from 2013 to 2019, the paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) with an Error Correction Model (ECM) to ascertain the availability and accessibility of rice, whilst the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is considered to measure the stability of the commodity. The paper finds evidence of cointegration between the World and Ghana’s rice market. Findings confirm cointegration in Ghana’s regional markets for both imported and domestically produced rice. This ensures stable long-run relationship, allowing trade flows that guarantees rice availability. The corrections in short-run deviations of price ensure continuous accessibility of rice in the country. Estimates from the volatility model suggest high fluctuation in prices, implying that stability in the prices of rice is an issue across all regional markets. The paper recommends efforts in increasing domestic production to enhance availability and accessibility of rice. Stakeholders along the rice value chain should be encouraged to invest in competitive rice production. Government should leverage rice prices with giant import countries to reduce the cost of importation for stable price on the market.

Measuring Rice Price Volatility and Its Determinants in Tanzania: An Implication for Price Stabilization Policies

High price volatility in agricultural food markets has a greater impact not only on smallholder farmers but also can affect the incomes and purchasing power of a substantial proportion of the Tanzanian population and decrease food security, especially to the lower middle class. This study applies the ARCH-GARCH and the VAR/VECM models to examine the dynamics and factors influencing price volatility in the domestic rice market. The results of the price volatility analysis show that the volatility of rice prices tends to be low and persistent over the long run. This is supported by the estimation results of factors affecting price volatility, which showed that supply variables play an important role in the short and long run in influencing rice price volatility. The prices in the producing regions (large surplus areas) turned out to be more volatile than the prices in the main consuming regions (large deficit areas). This means that producers are exposed to a much higher price risk than consumers. Thus, a favorable marketing environment for traders and farmers, transparent trade policies, reliable market information, and organized market infrastructure are essential to reduce food price volatility which has a wider impact on economic growth.

The dynamic effects of price support policy on price volatility: The case of the rice market in China

AbstractThis study examines the economic and welfare effects of a commodity price support policy. It conceptually and empirically evaluates the effects of the domestic pricing policy on the distribution of commodity prices, with an application to the price support program in the Chinese rice market. The empirical analysis relies on a Censored Quantile Autoregression (CQAR) model, which provides a refined and flexible representation of the evolving distribution of prices under a price support program. Based on monthly data over the period 2000–2018, we develop and estimate an econometric model documenting the price effects of policy interventions. We study how a price support program affects price distribution both in the short term and long term. We find that such a program has reduced the domestic rice price volatility, evidenced by lowered variation and increased right‐skewness of the price distribution. We also show how China's rice programs' high price support level during the period 2008–2015 caused significant censoring effects and price enhancement with adverse impacts on consumer welfare across all income levels. We further examine alternative situations where a moderate price support level can reduce the long‐term mean price without generating consumer welfare losses. Our analysis and findings have implications for the implementation of agricultural price support policies in many developing countries.

Differences in Local Rice Price Volatility, Climate, and Macroeconomic Determinants in the Indonesian Market

Rice is a staple food in most Asian countries, and food security is often viewed as having a rice supply to avoid a food crisis. The large number of people who have low incomes means there is a risk of household economic conditions being threatened when food prices are not controlled. We present a different approach by measuring rice price volatility at the local market level with climate and macroeconomic variables. The model succeeds in representing the variables that affect rice prices by an average of 75% nationally. The influence of macroeconomic variables and climate dynamics was found to have a non-uniform pattern from one region to another. The factors that dominate the volatility of rice prices in each province were different. To help address these problems, it is suggested to model and integrate climate data and macroeconomic variables. The output can be used to determine national policies for controllable factors and anticipate climate dynamics to reduce the risk that communities will have difficulty accessing food.

Food price volatility and household food security: Evidence from Nigeria

Food prices vary seasonally, particularly in areas with rainfed agricultural production and imperfect markets, and are also subject to volatility arising from macroeconomic and climatic shocks, such as global supply shocks and abrupt policy changes. The specific nature of these relationships remains a pressing empirical question, particularly in contexts where food insecurity is prevalent, prices are subject to diverse sources of variation, and governments are seeking policy options to reduce price volatility. We use panel data from Nigeria to investigate the effects of non-seasonal food price volatility, in particular unexpected increases in prices, on household food security. Accounting for substitution effects and focusing on both domestic and imported rice—key components of the Nigerian diet—we find that imported rice price increases are damaging to both dietary diversity (downward impact) and the food share of consumption expenditure (upward impact), while impacts of domestic rice price volatility are ambiguous. We find differential effects by wealth status that vary across indicators of food security: an increase in the price of imported rice increases food share more among poor households than rich households, and decreases dietary diversity more among rich households than poor households. Our findings point toward the importance of improving food security by mitigating the effects of global shocks on imported food prices, and also highlight the data challenges and complexity involved in developing precise answers to these important policy questions.

Forecasting Models Based on Data Analytics for Predicting Rice Price Volatility: A Case Study of the Sri Lankan Rice Market

Paddy rice is a staple food that is common among the Sri Lankan populace. However, the frequent price variation of rice has negatively impacted the Sri Lankan economy. This is due to the Sri Lankan rice market lacking the mechanisms to evaluate and predict future rice price variations, often leaving domestic traders and consumers affected by sudden price spikes. This study identifies the quantifiable economic factors that affect the sudden rice price variations and presents a viable mechanism for forecasting Domestic Rice Price (DRP). In addition, it establishes three different regression models to emphasise the relationship of DRP in Sri Lanka with three economic factors: International Rice Price (IRP), International Crude Oil Price (ICOP), and USD Exchange Rate. Further, a time series model is formulated to forecast future variations in DRP while advancing factors that have a significant, but negative, correlative impact on the DRP. The results presented in this study show that the models proposed can be used by relevant food authorities to predict sudden hikes and dips in DRP, allowing them to establish a robust price control system.

How far climate change affects the Indonesian paddy production and rice price volatility?

Food security issue after 2008 global-crisis is something relate with the climate change phenomenon which had worsened on the last few decades. The impact of global climate change can be seen from the fluctuation of main crops production yield in tropical countries. This has affected the food price fluctuations particularly on the grain price, both international and domestic markets. The rice-commodity, known for its thin market characteristics, is now also experiencing the fluctuation of production, its productivity and also the rice price. Considering the importance of rice as the main staple food in Indonesia, the purpose of this research is to identify the Indonesia’s rice price fluctuation (volatility) and to investigate how far climate change affects the Indonesian paddy production and rice price volatility. By applying monthly time-series data from 2007 to 2014, this research used ARCH-GARCH methods to find out the rice price volatility and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to investigate the impact of climate change phenomenon on the Indonesian paddy production, as well as rice price volatility both in the short-run and long-run. The result is important for the stakeholders and government in preventing the risk and uncertainty condition of paddy production and rice price fluctuation caused by climate change

Impact of Agricultural Investments on International Rice Price Volatility under Climate Change: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal

Impact of Agricultural Investments on International Rice Price Volatility under Climate Change: Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal

Contribution of Agricultural Investments to Stabilizing International Rice Price Volatility under Climate Change

Contribution of Agricultural Investments to Stabilizing International Rice Price Volatility under Climate Change

Rice Trade and Price Volatility: Implications on ASEAN and Global Food Security

This paper highlights the thinness of rice trade relative to wheat and maize, and the contrasting price volatility and tradability relations for wheat and maize, which display a positive correlation, and for rice, which show an inverse relation. The paper focuses on Southeast Asia, which hosts the world’s biggest rice exporters and rice importers. Using the Granger causality tests to determine correlation, the analysis concludes that very low global trading activity in rice that tends to self-perpetuate its dampening effect on trade does not cause extreme rice price volatility in the region, but the other way around. Rice-importing countries appear to resort to self-sufficiency measures as insurance to compensate for the high risks of unreliable rice supply and unaffordable rice prices. What would it take for countries to regain their confidence in external rice trade? The Association of Southeast Asian Nations Integrated Food Security Program provides a menu of policies for reducing and managing the chances of excessive rice price volatility.

Rice price volatility: Sustainable policies in Asia and Europe

In 2008, world attention focused on the global food crisis and, as a consequence, on global food security. Although food prices had dropped substantially by mid-2009, most remain at or above past trend levels. Of all cereals, rice has a strategic importance, with its production and consumption being concentrated in Asia. Consequently, it is, and has been, subject to a host of policy intervention measures that have placed it among the most distorted of all agricultural commodity markets. Responses to the 2008 food crises included export policies, the removal or reduction of import duties and taxes on food commodities, and various producer and consumer support measures. In particular, policies in favour of consumers have been motivated by the need to shelter vulnerable income groups from threatening rising poverty levels. Policies have therefore tended to be ‘sustainable’, in that they have helped shape socially responsible strategies by principal actors (such as traders) in these markets, whether public or private. Towards exploring how socially embedded government policies can serve as benchmarks for private corporations’ future strategies in the rice market, this article outlines the market's characteristics and compares policies adopted in Asia and the European Union from an economic and social perspective.

Requerimientos y posibilidades para la administración de riesgos de precios del arroz en Colombia

This article documents both the size and trends of rice price fluctuations in Colombia throughout the chain value. It also discusses possibilities for economic agents to implement both conventional and market based price risk management strategies and mechanisms. Specifically, it contends the importance for rice farmers to hold control on the spot market of paddy rice by extending own drying and storage facilities. Main requisites and present constraints to organize the rice cash market as well as the future and derivative market for rice in the Colombian Board of Trade BMC are presented. The whole discussion aims at reducing the impact of rice price volatility upon the financial performance of the rice business across the supply chain.

Rice Price Volatility: A Dilemma for Public Policies in Asia and Europe?

In 2008 the world’s attention was focused on the global food crisis and, as consequence, on the global food security. By mid-2009, commodity prices have dropped sensitively, nevertheless most of them still remain at or above past trend levels. Fluctuations in prices are not rare in agricultural markets where volatility is a common characteristic. Among cereals rice has a strategic importance. It is source of nutrition for more than a half of the world population and of income for about two million of farmers. Even if it is produced and consumed everywhere, production and consumption are concentrated in Asia. Because of its strategic importance, rice is and has been subject to a host of policy interventions that have made it feature among the most distorted of all agricultural commodities. Export policies have typically been applied by net exporting countries and one of the most commonly applied policy measures, adopted by net importing countries, is the removal or reduction of import duties and taxes on food commodities. Various forms of producer support measures were introduced, including input subsidies, output price support and an easing of cropland set-aside requirements. Policies to support consumers and vulnerable groups have included: direct consumer subsidies, tax reductions, distribution from public stocks, price subsidies, public-sector salary increases and social safety net programmes. Selftargeting food-for-work programmes have been put in place by some countries. Although the EU rice trade represents only 0.4 per cent of world trade a common organisation market (COM) for rice was set-up. It is a complex system aiming at maintaining European rice production destined for domestic and external markets. This paper aims to expand the above statements. The objective is to review and compare the policies adopted in Asia and in the EU and assess their impact form the point of sustainability (in a broad sense) with the ultimate aim to advance some interpretations and suggestions in the short and long run, having in mind the variables that affect the supply, the demand and the trade. As a background, the paper first outlines the characteristics of the rice market. Through a regression analysis that could help to understand how the rice price changes. It also considers the policies adopted in Asia and in the EU, highlighting their results on prices from an economic and social point of view. This paper concludes with a number of issues to be borne in mind when interpreting the volatility or rice prices (according to the regression analysis results), the expected policy impact and distortions, and, finally, the “relatively” new strategy: move from food security to selfsufficient food security, one of the long terms goals of the Treaty of Rome (to secure availability of supplies).

Option Approach to Search for Threshold Rice Price Toward Sustainable Paddy Field Management

This paper applies an option approach to search for the threshold rice price toward the sustainable paddy field management under rice price stochasticity. Rice price is assumed to follow geometric Brownian motion. The management model for paddy fields is a discrete stochastic dynamic programming model with binomial approximation for geometric Brownian motion, where a control variable is a decision to sustain or terminate paddy yield management. Our computational experiments indicate that an increase in rice price volatility could lower the threshold rice price for farmers to continue rice production. It is also shown that depending on the degree of rice price volatility, even under a lower price level than production costs, maintaining the management could become beneficial. Considering an option to terminate production could make the higher expected value of rice production than without it. Using 12 sets of time series data on voluntarily marketed rice produced in Hokkaido, Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata, Fukui, Ibaragi, Chiba, Niigata, Toyama and Nagano, the minimum threshold rice price of 6,700 Yen/60 kg was found in Chiba with the largest volatility, and the maximum of 7,250 Yen/60 kg in Ibaragi with the smallest volatility. If the market price becomes lower than the threshold rice price, some policy measures would be necessary toward sustainable paddy field management by covering the difference between them.