Abstract
Rice is a staple food in most Asian countries, and food security is often viewed as having a rice supply to avoid a food crisis. The large number of people who have low incomes means there is a risk of household economic conditions being threatened when food prices are not controlled. We present a different approach by measuring rice price volatility at the local market level with climate and macroeconomic variables. The model succeeds in representing the variables that affect rice prices by an average of 75% nationally. The influence of macroeconomic variables and climate dynamics was found to have a non-uniform pattern from one region to another. The factors that dominate the volatility of rice prices in each province were different. To help address these problems, it is suggested to model and integrate climate data and macroeconomic variables. The output can be used to determine national policies for controllable factors and anticipate climate dynamics to reduce the risk that communities will have difficulty accessing food.
Highlights
The global food crisis in 2008 had a significant and historical impact
The results show that the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar dominates the pattern of rice price volatility at the regional level
Rice price volatility was measured by involving climate dynamics and macroeconomic variables
Summary
The global food crisis in 2008 had a significant and historical impact. World food prices continued to increase for almost all commodities during the 2007–2008 crisis, and prices jumped up sharply, and the level of price volatility is getting higher. Global food security is one of the leading development priorities of every country, notably countries facing the threat of environmental changes [2]. It causes a reduction in the level of food availability, while populations requiring access to food continue to increase [3]. The most significant impact is felt by poor people in developing countries, whose food reserves depend on imports [9]
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