Rhine Delta Research Articles

Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty

A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands, and compare them with respect to the required tooling, the resulting decision relevant insights, and the resulting plans. The results indicate that the two approaches are complementary. Robust Decision-Making offers insights into conditions under which problems occur, and makes trade-offs transparent. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach emphasizes dynamic adaptation over time, and thus offers a natural way for handling the vulnerabilities identified through Robust Decision-Making. The application also makes clear that the analytical process of Robust Decision-Making is path-dependent and open ended: an analyst has to make many choices, for which Robust Decision-Making offers no direct guidance.

The Influence of Statistical Uncertainty in the Hydraulic Boundary Conditions on the Probabilistically Computed High Water Level Frequency Curve in the Rhine Delta

The hydrodynamic characteristics of a delta or estuary are mainly governed by discharges of rivers and water level at the sea (or lake) boundaries. A joint probability approach is widely applied to quantify the high water level frequency in deltas. In the approach the relevant hydrodynamic loading variables, namely the astronomical tides, the wind induced storm surge and the river flows, are jointly investigated. The joint probability distribution is used to generate a large number of scenarios of boundary conditions which can drive a deterministic model to derive the water levels at locations of interest. The resulting water levels as well as their associated joint probabilities can be inverted to the high water level frequency curve. However, in the joint probability distribution, marginal distributions may contain large statistical uncertainties due to their relevant parameters being estimated from a limited length of data. In the case of the Rhine Delta, a nonparametric bootstrap method is applied to quantify the statistical uncertainties in three critical marginal distributions: wind induced storm surge peak level, wind induced storm surge duration and River Rhine discharge. The uncertainties are incorporated into the marginal distributions with a Monte Carlo integration method. Further the uncertainty-incorporated marginal distributions are used for the high water level frequency assessment. Compared to previous studies, water levels for given return periods are much higher. The uncertainty differs in each marginal distribution and its impact on the high water level frequency curve also varies.

Analyzing Collaborative Governance Through Social Network Analysis: A Case Study of River Management Along the Waal River in The Netherlands.

Until recently, governmental organizations played a dominant and decisive role in natural resource management. However, an increasing number of studies indicate that this dominant role is developing towards a more facilitating role as equal partner to improve efficiency and create a leaner state. This approach is characterized by complex collaborative relationships between various actors and sectors on multiple levels. To understand this complexity in the field of environmental management, we conducted a social network analysis of floodplain management in the Dutch Rhine delta. We charted the current interorganizational relationships between 43 organizations involved in flood protection (blue network) and nature management (green network) and explored the consequences of abolishing the central actor in these networks. The discontinuation of this actor will decrease the connectedness of actors within the blue and green network and may therefore have a large impact on the exchange of ideas and decision-making processes. Furthermore, our research shows the dependence of non-governmental actors on the main governmental organizations. It seems that the Dutch governmental organizations still have a dominant and controlling role in floodplain management. This challenges the alleged shift from a dominant government towards collaborative governance and calls for detailed analysis of actual governance.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00267-015-0606-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The geology of the Amstel river in Amsterdam (Netherlands): Man versus nature

AbstractThe Amstel river is located in the peat-covered coastal plain of the Netherlands and gives Amsterdam its name (Amstel dam). It is a small secondary branch of the repeatedly bifurcating Rhine delta system. Historically, the Amstel debouched into the peat-fringed former Oer-IJ estuary, which was connected to the North Sea, but after the closure of this inlet the estuary was transformed into an inland sea (IJ) due to erosion of the adjacent peat. The Amstel river was active between 3000 BP and 1122 AD after which time the supply water from the Rhine was stopped due to the construction of a dam far upstream near Wijk bij Duurstede. On the basis of borehole data from various sources, four cross-sections were constructed in the Amstel branch to study the unknown lithology and lithostratigraphy of the Amstel sediments in the Amsterdam area. The deposits show the Amstel was a low-energy river which carried mainly clay. The cross-sections reveal that the Amstel in its downstream part was flanked by two lithologically identical layers of overbank clay, intercalated by a peat layer. The lowermost overbank clay was deposited from 3000 BP to about 1000 AD. The intercalated peat layer is estimated to have developed between the 11th and 12th centuries AD, indicating a decreased sediment supply in the Amstel, and rise of water level in the downstream river caused by Zuiderzee influences such as storms and tide. The uppermost overbank clay was deposited during major storm surges such as those documented in 1164 and 1170 AD, and was derived from the brackish Zuiderzee; it has been traced upstream along the Amstel for over 10 km. Near the mouth of the Amstel channel in the Oer-IJ estuary its bottom has been scoured by estuarine processes to a lower level. On the basis of archaeological and geological data it is argued that the Amstel channel of medieval Amsterdam had a water depth of about 6 m before the construction of a dam in the 13th century. Soil scientists, historical geographers and historians have argued that the Amstel once consisted of two separate rivers: a northern Oer-IJ connected channel draining from the Amsterdam Stopera to the north, and a southern peat draining channel draining from the Amsterdam-Watergraafsmeer to the south. The relatively straight stretch of the present-day Amstel now positioned within the urban area has been hypothesised to be man-made between the 11th and 13th centuries AD. In this paper, on the basis of geological arguments such as channel depths, overbank clays, peat composition and other characteristics, it is concluded that the Amstel had a natural channel in the Amsterdam area.

Fluvial sediment budget of a modern, restrained river: The lower reach of the Rhine in Germany

The Rhine River is a restrained river which is intensely used for navigation. Its river bed is subject to human-induced erosion and sedimentation processes. For river management, information on the amount, type, source, transport mode and fate of the sediments moving through the Rhine is indispensable. The objective of this study was to quantify the downstream fluxes of clay, silt, sand, gravel and cobbles through the Rhine between 1991 and 2010 and to identify the sources and sinks of these sediments. This was done by analysing a unique dataset containing thousands of sediment transport measurements and by evaluating the sediment budget. The river bed of the Rhine was found to be subject to a net bed degradation of 3mm/a between 1991 and 2010. Bed degradation has been induced by 18th–20th century river training works and nowadays is concentrated in areas with Tertiary sands close to the bed surface, in areas with mining-induced subsidence and in the gravel–sand transition zone. Sediment transport was found to be dominated by suspended clay and silt. Morphologically relevant, however, are only the sand, gravel and cobble fractions. Despite the armoured, gravely river bed, sand is the main morphological agent. Sediment loads change in the downstream direction: sand and fine gravel loads increase due to erosion of the bed, whereas coarse gravel and cobble loads decrease due to a reduced sediment mobility caused by the downstream decreasing bed slope. Approximately one third of the sand and gravel load comes from upstream (Rhenish Massif), one third is supplied by bed degradation and one third is supplied artificially by humans for bed stabilisation purposes or as substitute for natural bed-load. Slightly more than one half of the sediment was transported downstream into the North Sea Basin (Rhine Delta), a small amount was lost by abrasion, and the remainder must have been deposited in groyne fields, on floodplains or in ports. The transfer of sand, gravel and cobbles from the hinterland towards the Rhine delta equalled 0.66Mt/a±26%. Despite the long history of human impact, this rate does not differ significantly from the Holocene rate of sediment transfer to the Rhine delta.

Fit for purpose? Building and evaluating a fast, integrated model for exploring water policy pathways

Exploring adaptation pathways is an emerging approach for supporting decision making under uncertain changing conditions. An adaptation pathway is a sequence of policy actions to reach specified objectives. To develop adaptation pathways, interactions between environment and policy response need to be analysed over time for an ensemble of plausible futures. A fast, integrated model can facilitate this. Here, we describe the development and evaluation of such a model, an Integrated Assessment Metamodel (IAMM), to explore adaptation pathways in the Rhine delta for a decision problem currently faced by the Dutch Government. The theory-motivated metamodel is a simplified physically based model. Closed questions reflecting the required accuracy were used to evaluate the model's fitness. The results show that such a model fits the purpose of screening and ranking of policy options and pathways to support the strategic decision making. A complex model can subsequently be used to obtain more detailed information.

Application of a fast stochastic storm surge model on estimating the high water level frequency in the Lower Rhine Delta

In the Lower Rhine Delta of the Netherlands, the high water level is driven by a joint impact of the downstream storm surge and the upstream fluvial discharge, and affected by the operation of existing man-made structures. In scenario-based risk assessment, a large number of stochastic scenarios of storm surges are required for estimating the high water level frequency. In this article, a fast computing stochastic storm surge model is applied to the gauge station of Hook of Holland in the west of the Netherlands. A fixed number of tides are considered in this model based on the information of historical storm surge events. Based on this model, a large number of stochastic storm surge scenarios are derived and forced into a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Netherlands, resulting in peak water levels in Rotterdam, the most vulnerable city in the delta. These peak water levels are statistically analyzed and converted to the high water level frequency curve in Rotterdam. The high water level frequency curve in Rotterdam tends to a much lower design water level compared to the official design water level that is used to design the dikes and structures for protection of the city. Moreover, there is a significant difference in the high water level frequency curves due to the fact that the stochastic storm surge model considers different numbers of tides. This highlights the critical impact of the storm surge duration on the high water level frequency in the Lower Rhine Delta.

Timber species and provenances of wooden sculptures. Information from the collections of the National Museum of “Palazzo di Venezia” in Rome

Paper deals with the scientific identification of timbers utilised for the production of the sculptures preserved within the collection of the National Museum of the “Palazzo di Venezia” in Rome, Italy. After a brief description of the Museum and its sculpture collections, and, more specifically, the wooden sculpture collection which is the largest in Italy, the sampling of the artwork is discussed and described, together with the methodology used for the identification of wood species following the Italian standard UNI 11118:2004. The 12 identified timbers are listed together with their distribution within the cultural provenance of the sculptures. The discussion deals with the timber species utilised by the artists from the four cultural European provenances most represented within the collection: Italy, Alps, central-southern Germany and Lowlands around the Rhine delta. In the different Italian regions, several wood species were utilised and among them mostly poplar and limewood, while the alpine sculptors mostly used Swiss stone pine and the German artists, limewood. Finally in the Rhine delta, most of the sculptures were made out of deciduous oak.

Today's sediment budget of the Rhine River channel, focusing on the Upper Rhine Graben and Rhenish Massif

The river bed of the Rhine River is subject to severe erosion and sedimentation. Such high geomorphological process rates are unwanted for economical, ecological, and safety reasons. The objectives of this study were (1) to quantify the geomorphological development of the Rhine River between 1985 and 2006; (2) to investigate the bed erosion process; and (3) to distinguish between tectonic, hydrological, and human controls. We used a unique data set with thousands of bedload and suspended-load measurements and quantified the fluxes of gravel, sand, silt, and clay through the northern Upper Rhine Graben and the Rhenish Massif. Furthermore, we calculated bed level changes and evaluated the sediment budget of the channel. Sediment transport rates were found to change in the downstream direction: silt and clay loads increase because of tributary supply; sand loads increase because of erosion of sand from the bed; and gravel loads decrease because of reduced sediment mobility caused by the base-level control exerted by the uplifting Rhenish Massif. This base-level control shows tectonic setting, in addition to hydrology and human interventions, to represent a major control on morphodynamics in the Rhine. The Rhine bed appears to be in a state of disequilibrium, with an average net bed degradation of 3mm/a. Sand being eroded from the bed is primarily washed away in suspension, indicating a rapid supply of sand to the Rhine delta. The degradation is the result of an increased sediment transport capacity caused by nineteenth and twentieth century's river training works. In order to reduce degradation, huge amounts of sediment are fed into the river by river managers. Bed degradation and artificial sediment feeding represent the major sources of sand and gravel to the study area; only small amounts of sediment are supplied naturally from upstream or by tributaries. Sediment sinks include dredging, abrasion, and the sediment output to the downstream area. Large uncertainties exist about the amounts of sediment deposited on floodplains and in groyne fields. Compared to the natural situation during the middle Holocene, the present-day gravel and sand loads seem to be lower, whereas the silt and clay loads seem to be higher. This is probably caused by the present-day absence of meander migration, the deforestation, and the reduced sediment trapping efficiency of the floodplains. Even under natural conditions no equilibrium bed level existed.

The simultaneous occurrence of surge and discharge extremes for the Rhine delta

Abstract. The low-lying Netherlands is at risk from multiple threats of sea level rise, storm surges and extreme river discharges. Should these occur simultaneously, a catastrophe will be at hand. Knowledge about the likelihood of simultaneous occurrence or the so-called "compound effect" of such threats is essential to provide guidance on legislation for dike heights, flood barrier design and water management in general. In this study, we explore the simultaneous threats of North Sea storm surges and extreme Rhine river discharge for the current and future climate in a large 17-member global climate model ensemble. We use a simple approach, taking proxies of north-northwesterly winds over the North Sea and multiple~day precipitation averaged over the Rhine basin for storm surge and discharge respectively, so that a sensitivity analysis is straightforward to apply. By investigating soft extremes, we circumvent the need to extrapolate the data and thereby permit the model's synoptic development of the extreme events to be inspected. Our principle finding based on the climate model data is that, for the current climate, the probability of extreme surge conditions following extreme 20-day precipitation sums is around 3 times higher than that estimated from treating extreme surge and discharge probabilities as independent, as previously assumed. For the future climate (2070–2100), the assumption of independence cannot be rejected, at least not for precipitation sums exceeding 7 days.

A joint probability approach using a 1-D hydrodynamic model for estimating high water level frequencies in the Lower Rhine Delta

Abstract. The Lower Rhine Delta, a transitional area between the River Rhine and Meuse and the North Sea, is at risk of flooding induced by infrequent events of a storm surge or upstream flooding, or by more infrequent events of a combination of both. A joint probability analysis of the astronomical tide, the wind induced storm surge, the Rhine flow and the Meuse flow at the boundaries is established in order to produce the joint probability distribution of potential flood events. Three individual joint probability distributions are established corresponding to three potential flooding causes: storm surges and normal Rhine discharges, normal sea levels and high Rhine discharges, and storm surges and high Rhine discharges. For each category, its corresponding joint probability distribution is applied, in order to stochastically simulate a large number of scenarios. These scenarios can be used as inputs to a deterministic 1-D hydrodynamic model in order to estimate the high water level frequency curves at the transitional locations. The results present the exceedance probability of the present design water level for the economically important cities of Rotterdam and Dordrecht. The calculated exceedance probability is evaluated and compared to the governmental norm. Moreover, the impact of climate change on the high water level frequency curves is quantified for the year 2050 in order to assist in decisions regarding the adaptation of the operational water management system and the flood defense system.

Understanding and managing the morphology of branches incising into sand-clay deposits in the Dutch Rhine Delta

In the Rhine-Meuse delta in the south-western part of the Netherlands, the morphology of the river branches is highly dependent on the erodibility of the subsoil. Erosion processes that were initiated after closure of the Haringvliet estuary branch by a dam (in 1970), caused a strong incision of several connecting branches. Due to the geological evolution of this area the lithology of the subsoil shows large variations in highly erodible sand and poorly erodible peat and clay layers. This study shows how the geological information can be used to create 3D maps of the erodibility of the sub-soil, and how this information can be used to schematize the sub-soil in computational models for morphological simulations. Local incisement of sand patches between areas with poorly erodible bed causes deep scour holes, hence increasing the risk on river-bank instability (flow slides) and damage to constructions such as groynes, quays, tunnels, and pipelines. Various types of mathematical models, ranging from 1D (SOBEK) to quasi-3D (Delft3D) have been applied to study the future development of the river bed and possible management options. The results of these approaches demonstrate that models require inclusion of a layer-bookkeeping approach for sub-soil schematization, non-uniform sediment fractions (sand-mud), tidal and river-discharge boundary conditions, and capacity-reduction transport modeling. For risk-reducing river management it has been shown how the development of the river bed can be addressed on a large scale and small scale. For instance, the use of sediment feeding and fixation of bed can be proposed for large-scale management, while monitoring and interventions at initiation of erosion can be proposed as response to small-scale developments that exceed predefined intervention levels.

The Roman Limes in the Netherlands: how a delta landscape determined the location of the military structures

AbstractFrom the 40s A.D. onwards a dense military system was established in the Lower Rhine delta in the Netherlands. Long since, it is questioned why this system was established in a wetland area and even turned into the northwest frontier of the Roman Empire, theLimes. A new detailed palaeogeographical map, based on a digital elevation model (LIDAR), soil maps and excavation results, was constructed. This reconstruction provides insight and understanding of the interactions between the natural environment in this part of the delta on the one hand and the establishment of this part of theLimesalong the Old Rhine between Utrecht and Katwijk on the other. This study shows that the distinctive landscape of the western Rhine-Meuse delta, with an exceptionally large number of tributaries, determined the spatial pattern of the military structures. All forts (castella) were erected on the southern natural levees of the river Rhine, directly alongside the river, regardless of height and composition of the subsoil and alongside or opposite routes that provided natural access to the river. We conclude that their aim was to guard all waterways that gave access to the river Rhine from the Germanic residential areas further north and from/to the Meuse tributary further south in the delta. In addition, a system of small military structures, mostly watchtowers, was erected between the forts to watch over the river Rhine and its river traffic. Furthermore, at least two canals were established to create shorter and safely navigable transport routes to the river Meuse. At first, this integrated system of castella and watchtowers probably aimed to protect against Germanic invasions and to create a safe corridor for transport and built up of army supplies for the British invasion in 43 A.D. Only later on, probably by the end of the first century, this corridor turned into a frontier zone.

Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’. We base our approach on two complementary approaches for designing adaptive plans: ‘Adaptive Policymaking’ and ‘Adaptation Pathways’. Adaptive Policymaking is a theoretical approach describing a planning process with different types of actions (e.g. ‘mitigating actions’ and ‘hedging actions’) and signposts to monitor to see if adaptation is needed. In contrast, Adaptation Pathways provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time. We illustrate the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach by producing an adaptive plan for long-term water management of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands that takes into account the deep uncertainties about the future arising from social, political, technological, economic, and climate changes. The results suggest that it is worthwhile to further test and use the approach.

Benthic ostracode δ13C as sensor for early Holocene establishment of modern circulation patterns in Central Europe

Shells from adult specimen of the benthic ostracodes Limnocytherina sanctipatricii and Leucocythere mirabilis selected from a 8.7 m long piston core provide continuous stable oxygen and carbon records for the past approximately 16 ka. Oxygen isotopes from both species show identical values and track the general North Atlantic and European temperature history since deglaciation in great detail. Values of ostracode δ18O values suggest that about 16 cal ka the average annual air temperatures were about 11 °C colder than today. Carbon isotopic values from both species of ostracodes are similar during the Lateglacial and early Holocene, and show an overall decrease from −4‰ to −7‰ that is probably related to an increase in photosynthetic productivity in the water column, as suggested by an increase in organic carbon, delivering 13C-depleted organic matter to the bottom waters (carbon pump). About 9 cal ka only L. mirabilis δ13C values decreased about −2.5‰ within 300 years. Higher δ13C variability and ecological evidence suggests that L. mirabilis represents a summer signal, whereas L. sanctipatricii displays a more subdued annual average. After about 7 cal ka another −1.5% decrease for both species, accompanied by an increase in magnetic susceptibility, a decrease in carbonate content, and more positive bulk carbonate isotope values followed, suggesting higher detrital-clastic input into the lake.In order to provide a possible mechanism explaining the negative L. mirabilis δ13C-values, sediment pore water profiles of O2 and CH4 in short cores collected from sites distal to proximal to the Alpine Rhine River delta, were inspected. Sediments in cores from more proximal sites to the Rhine delta become anoxic at shallower sediment depth due to the decay of high allochthonous organic carbon input to the sediment, which greatly increases concentrations of methane in pore waters closer to the Rhine inflow. When methane is oxidized close to the sediment–water-interface, 13C-depleted carbon is added to pore water DIC that is then available for incorporation into ostracode shells. This mechanism suggests that about 9 cal ka the oxygen supply to the bottom waters, especially in summer, decreased. This stimulated methanogenesis close to the sediment–water-interface, and provided δ13C-depleted carbon to benthic dwellers. Independent evidence for methanogenesis is provided by the increase in concentration of tetrahymanol after about 9 cal ka coincident with the decrease in δ13C of L. mirabilis.We suggest that about 9 cal ka the northward retreat of the Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets, and consequently the polar front, left the alpine region affected by a more oceanic climate, characterized by warmer winters as they occur today especially during the positive North Atlantic Oscillation Index phase. More frequently incomplete mixing of the water column may have shifted the decay of organic matter faster to anaerobic conditions in surficial sediments especially during summer. By about 7 cal ka the North Atlantic region had probably warmed sufficiently to increase precipitation in Central Europe and consequently detrital-clastic runoff to Lake Constance.

Eemian Rhine delta architecture in The Netherlands: facies distribution, deposit characteristics and preservation potential in a near-coastal deltaic setting

Within near-coastal environments, the fluvial-tidal transition zone is one of the most complex zones due to mixture of processes and sediments of different source and depositional styles. Despite a large number of excellent Holocene fluvial-estuarine cases, transferring sedimentary concepts into the fluvial-estuarine palaeo-records remains a major challenge...

Influence of a Storm Surge Barrier’s Operation on the Flood Frequency in the Rhine Delta Area

The Rhine River Delta is crucial to the Dutch economy. The Maeslant barrier was built in 1997 to protect the Rhine estuary, with the city and port of Rotterdam, from storm surges. This research takes a simple approach to quantify the influence of the Maeslant storm surge barrier on design water levels behind the barrier. The dikes in the area are supposed to be able to withstand these levels. Equal Level Curves approach is used to calculate the Rotterdam water levels by using Rhine discharges and sea water levels as input. Their joint probability function generates the occurrence frequency of a certain combination that will lead to a certain high water level in Rotterdam. The results show that the flood frequency in Rotterdam is reduced effectively with the controlled barrier in current and in future scenarios influenced by climate change. In addition, an investigation of the sensitivity of the operational parameters suggests that there is a negligible influence on the high water level frequency when the decision closing water level for the barrier is set higher due to the benefits of navigation (but not exceeding the design safety level 4 m MSL).

Sedimentary architecture of abandoned channel fills

ABSTRACTChannel fills are common elements of Holocene river systems and older fluvial sequences, but surprisingly little is known about formation and their sedimentary build‐up. Abandoned channels result from channel shifting processes at various scales, including meander cutoff and channel‐belt avulsion. Channel‐fill sequences are of importance as containers of palaeoenvironmental proxy‐records, can be used to reconstruct palaeochannel dynamics and derive palaeoflood records, and contain materials that allow dating the abandonment. Integrated knowledge on the dynamic nature (geometrical and physical insights) of channel abandonment and resultant sedimentary recording is a necessity for comparing and collating records from a series of abandoned channel fills.This paper intends to make channel‐fill sedimentological sequences more useful recorders of channel abandonment processes and palaeofloods, for which improved understanding is needed of the internal build‐up of channel fills. We review oxbow lake infilling along meandering rivers, and supplement this with highly detailed descriptions of two selected field examples of channel fills from the apex‐region of the Netherlands' Rhine delta. From these examples it becomes clear that regional setting and type of abandonment result in different channel‐fill end‐members; oxbow cutoffs generally produce thick laminated clayey fills as the channel entrance is plugged rapidly, avulsion‐abandoned channels are filled with coarse (proximal) deposits as a result of a maintained open river connection.Field examples of channel fills are integrated with knowledge on channel abandonment dynamics in meander cutoff and bifurcating river situations, including insights from recent numerical modelling. We propose a sedimentary‐architecture descriptive scheme that distinguishes elements from two stages of channel‐fill development; (i) the abandonment stage with initial proximal fill, and (ii) the subsequent fully abandoned palaeochannel that collects distal fill. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

From the Po Basin to the Rhine Delta : A Case Study of Transfer of Knowledge in the Eighteenth-Century River Hydraulics

From the Po Basin to the Rhine Delta : A Case Study of Transfer of Knowledge in the Eighteenth-Century River Hydraulics

Evolution of a bifurcation in a meandering river with adjustable channel widths, Rhine delta apex, The Netherlands

ABSTRACTRivers may dramatically change course on a fluvial plain. Such an avulsion temporarily leads to two active channels connected at a bifurcation. Here we study the effect of dynamic meandering at the bifurcation and the effect of channel width adjustment to changing discharge in both downstream branches on the evolution of a bifurcation and coexisting channels. As an example, we reconstructed the last major avulsion at the Rhine delta apex.We combined historical and geological data to reconstruct a slowly developing avulsion process spanning 2000 years and involving channel width adjustment and meandering at the bifurcation. Based on earlier idealised models, we developed a one‐dimensional model for long‐term morphodynamic prediction of upstream channel and bifurcates connected at the bifurcation node. The model predicts flow and sediment partitioning at the node, including the effect of migrating meanders at the bifurcation and channel width adjustment.Bifurcate channel width adaptation to changing discharge partitioning dramatically slows the pacing of bifurcation evolution because the sediment balance for width adjustment and bed evolution are coupled. The model further shows that meandering at the bifurcation modulates channel abandonment or enlargement periodically. This explains hitherto unrecognised reactivation signals in the sedimentary record of the studied bifurcation meander belts, newly identified in our geological reconstruction. Historical maps show that bifurcation migration due to meander bend dynamics increases the bifurcation angle, which increases the rate of closure of one bifurcate.The combination of model and reconstruction identifies the relevant timescales for bifurcation evolution and avulsion duration. These are the time required to fill one downstream channel over one backwater length, the time to translate one meander wavelength downstream and, for strong river banks, the adaptation timescale to adjust channel width. The findings have relevance for all avulsions where channel width can adjust to changing discharge and where meandering occurs. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.